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Andrew Benintendi

White Sox Place Andrew Benintendi On 10-Day Injured List

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Prior to today’s game, the White Sox placed outfielder Andrew Benintendi on the 10-day injured list today due to left achilles tendinitis.  Oscar Colas was called up from Triple-A to take Benintendi’s roster spot, as Francys Romero was the first to report (via X) yesterday.

It seemed likely that Benintendi was headed for the IL after he was removed early from yesterday’s game.  Sox manager Pedro Grifol revealed to reporters that Benintendi had been playing with the injury for a while, and though the outfielder even homered prior to his early exit Saturday, the discomfort just became too much for Benintendi to bear.

The IL placement is yet another bad turn in Benintendi’s star-crossed tenure with the White Sox.  He signed a five-year, $75MM free agent deal with Chicago in the 2022-23 offseason, but then hit only .262/.326/.356 over 621 plate appearances last year.  The follow-up has been even worse, as Benintendi’s .195/.230/.284 slash line over 200 PA in 2024 has given him the lowest fWAR (-1.6) of any qualified player in baseball.  While there are still over three and a half years remaining on Benintendi’s deal, the largest contract in White Sox history is already looking like an albatross, which isn’t great news for a rebuilding Sox team that will be trying to move as much veteran talent as possible in order to reload with younger players.

Colas was in today’s starting lineup against the Brewers, and he has appeared in one other MLB game this season (a pinch-hit appearance in Chicago’s 7-6 loss to Cleveland on April 10).  The outfielder has otherwise spent the season at Triple-A Charlotte, hitting .244/.358/.406 with five home runs over 193 PA.  It seems possible that this could be another cup of coffee type of promotion for Colas, as Luis Robert Jr. is expected to be activated from the injured list this coming week, and possibly as early as Tuesday when the White Sox next take the field.

Then again, Colas’ time in the Show could also be elongated depending on Andrew Vaughn’s status, as Vaughn has missed Chicago’s last three games.  Vaughn hasn’t played since spraining his left ring finger while sliding into a base on Wednesday, and manager Pedro Grifol told MLB.com and other media that the plan was to see how Vaughn felt after 3-5 days of rest.  If Vaughn still isn’t showing improvement on Tuesday, he might go on the IL himself (with three days of backdated placement) if Robert is ready to be activated.

Vaughn is unfortunately not far ahead of Benintendi, as Vaughn’s -0.8 fWAR is the fourth-worst of any qualified player.  The former third overall pick had a 107 wRC+ and a .264/.317/.429 slash line over 1170 PA during the 2022-23 seasons, but he has taken a big step backwards with a .199/.264/.313 slash and four homers in his first 220 trips to the plate this year.  Gavin Sheets has been filling in at first base in Vaughn’s absence.

AL Central Notes: Tigers, Polanco, Benintendi

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Tigers right-hander Matt Manning through 6 2/3 hitless innings yesterday, combining with Jason Foley and Alex Lange to throw the ninth no-hitter in franchise history. While the decision to pull a starter in the midst of a no-hitter is always a controversial one, manager A.J. Hinch shed additional light on the decision following yesterday’s game, noting to reporters (including Chris McCosky of The Detroit News) that Manning had been struggling through the outing and was evaluated by team trainers between each inning. Manning expanded on Hinch’s comments, noting that he tweaked his side during the second inning. Fortunately, it appears Manning avoided a more serious injury, and the 25-year-old hurler will have the opportunity to rest during the All Star break ahead of the second half.

The Tigers also offered an update regarding left-hander Tyler Alexander today. Alexander was placed on the 60-day injured list with a left lat/shoulder strain last week, a move that seemingly indicated the lefty’s season could be in jeopardy. Following an MRI, the club has more clarity regarding Alexander’s timeline for return. Per McCosky, Alexander will avoid surgery but be shut down for three months. He’ll resume a throwing program in October that should leave him able to return in time for Spring Training in 2024. Alexander had posted a 4.50 ERA and 4.13 FIP in 44 innings of work across 25 appearances this season.

More from around the AL Central…

  • Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the Twin Cities Pioneer Press) that second baseman Jorge Polanco is expected to start a rehab assignment in the near future as he recovers from a hamstring strain he suffered early last month. Polanco has been limited to just 30 games this season and has slashed .250/.291/.450 when healthy enough to play. While Polanco has been out, youngster Edouard Julien has filled in at the keystone very well with an impressive .264/.345/.273 slash line in 149 plate appearances this season.
  • White Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi has been dealing with a right wrist issue recently, which Scott Merkin of MLB.com says has been “addressed” according to manager Pedro Grifol. Benintendi hasn’t played since Friday, but is expected to return to action after the All Star break in Atlanta. Benintendi hasn’t been as impactful this season as the White Sox were surely hoping when they signed him to a five-year deal this past offseason, slashing .280/.347/.369 with just one home run in 314 plate appearances, good for a roughly league average wRC+ of 99. The Sox entered play today with a record of just 38-53 this season, but are surely hoping an extended rest for Benintendi ahead of the midsummer classic will allow him to return healthy and more impactful in the second half.

AL Injury Notes: Diaz, Bauers, Farmer, Benintendi

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Aledmys Diaz is likely going to require a trip to the 10-day injured list after suffering a hamstring injury in today’s game, Athletics manager Mark Kotsay told Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle and other reporters.  After delivering an RBI single in the second inning, Diaz stole second base and then advanced to third on a Jordan Diaz single before being replaced by pinch-runner Kevin Smith (who then took over for Diaz at shortstop in the top of the third inning).

An injury would only add to what has been a brutal start to the season for Diaz, and the A’s as a whole.  Diaz is hitting only .153/.226/.212 over his first 93 plate appearances, after signing a two-year, $14.5MM deal with Oakland during the winter.  While the offense hasn’t been there, Diaz has at least provided some versatility, playing at all four infield positions over his 25 games. [UPDATE: The A’s will see how Diaz is feeling after Monday’s offday, according to MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos.  An MRI revealed a Grade 1 hamstring strain for Diaz, but there is apparently some hope that a couple of days’ rest might allow Diaz to avoid the injured list.]

More on other injury situations from around the American League…

  • The Yankees selected Jake Bauers’ contract prior to today’s game with the Rangers, but his return to the big leagues has already been clouded by an injury scare.  Bauers made an outstanding catch to rob Adolis Garcia of extra bases in the bottom of the first inning, but had to make a hard slide into the wall to complete the play.  Officially diagnosed as a right knee contusion, Bauers’ injury will receive further testing, manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner and Newsday’s Erik Boland).  Boone said “it’s possible” the club might need to call someone up from Triple-A as early as tomorrow if Bauers needs to go on the injured list, and Boland also noted that Bauers was walking “with a significant limp in the clubhouse” after the game.
  • Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park and other reporters that Kyle Farmer might begin a rehab assignment this week.  Farmer hasn’t played since April 12, when he was hit in the face by a Lucas Giolito fastball.  The scary-looking injury resulted in a facial laceration and some significant dental work for Farmer, but he fortunately avoided anything more serious like a concussion or a broken jaw.  Minnesota acquired Farmer in a trade with the Reds back in November, and when Farmer is healthy, he’ll resume his role as a multi-positional option on the Twins’ bench.
  • X-rays were negative on Andrew Benintendi’s elbow after the White Sox outfielder was hit by a pitch during Friday’s game.  Benintendi didn’t play today but manager Pedro Grifol told The Athletic’s James Fegan and other reporters that Benintendi might be back as early as Sunday.  While Benintendi isn’t known for his power bat, he hasn’t delivered much pop in his short time in Chicago, hitting .281/.337/.333 in his first 104 PA in a White Sox uniform.  The outfielder signed a five-year, $75MM free agent contract with the Sox in the offseason.

White Sox Sign Andrew Benintendi

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January 3: The White Sox have officially announced the Benintendi signing and provided a specific contract breakdown. The outfielder will receive a $3MM signing bonus, followed by an $8MM salary in 2023, $16.5MM for the next three years and then $14.5MM in 2027. The club’s 40-man roster is now at 39.

December 16: The White Sox have agreed to a five-year contract with free-agent outfielder Andrew Benintendi, reports ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (via Twitter). Benintendi, a client of Excel Sports Management, will be guaranteed $75MM on the contract, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Benintendi, 28, was the No. 7 overall pick in the 2015 draft by the Red Sox and ranked as the sport’s No. 1 prospect at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB.com prior to his big league debut. The runner up to Aaron Judge for American League Rookie of the Year honors in 2017, he turned in a brilliant .290/.366/.465 batting line with 18 home runs and 21 steals a year later in 2018, seemingly setting the stage for him to break out into full blown stardom.

That never really transpired, however. Four full seasons have gone by since that time, and Benintendi has instead settled in as a solid regular in left field but not the perennial All-Star he looked to be early in his big league tenure. He’ll typically hit for average, draw plenty of walks and play good defense — Benintendi won a Gold Glove in 2021 — but he’s never settled in as a consistent power threat. Benintendi’s 20 home runs in 2017 still stand as his career high, and he hit just five home runs in 521 plate appearances between the Royals and Yankees in 2022 before a fractured hamate in his wrist ended his season.

Over the past four seasons, Benintendi has posted a combined .276/.345/.417 batting line with 35 home runs and 27 steals. He’s always been tough to strike out, but never more so than in 2022, when he fanned in just 14.8% of his plate appearances. It’s possible Benintendi took a more conservative, contact-oriented approach that resulted both in him hitting fewer home runs but also putting the ball in play with more frequency. Regardless, the lack of punchouts likely appealed to a White Sox club that posted the seventh-lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball last year and watched as the Guardians won the AL Central with by far the game’s lowest strikeout rate.

A corner outfielder and left-handed bat to help balance out a heavily right-handed club were both clear needs for the South Siders, and Benintendi can check both boxes. He’ll hit at or near the top of the lineup, with Eloy Jimenez like sliding into a primary DH role now that Benintendi is on board. The Sox also bid farewell to stalwart first baseman Jose Abreu this offseason, which cleared the way for Andrew Vaughn to move from right field, where he ranked as one of MLB’s worst defenders at any position, to his natural position of first base.

Removing Vaughn and Jimenez from regular outfield work would’ve improved the outfield defense regardless of the replacements, but plugging Benintendi into the mix provides a substantial upgrade. In 5775 career innings in left field, he’s been credited with 32 Defensive Runs Saved. It’s notable that Statcast’s Outs Above Average feels quite differently, pegging Benintendi at -15 in that same time, although that’s skewed by one -10 season in 2019 (a season that DRS agrees was below average from a defensive standpoint). Benintendi and center fielder Luis Robert give the Sox a pair of above-average defenders in the outfield, although if the plan for right field is to use Gavin Sheets as a bridge to prospect Oscar Colas, at least one of the three outfield spots will still have the potential to be a defensive liability.

The White Sox opened the 2022 season with a club record $193MM payroll, and the addition of Benintendi figures to put them right back into that range again. Benintendi also pushes Chicago’s luxury-tax ledger a bit north of $205MM, per Roster Resource, though that’s still $28MM from the $233MM first tier of penalization. The Sox could still use help at second base and could stand to deepen their bench, so it’s likely that subsequent moves will push the team to a franchise-record payroll for a second season (barring a trade that sheds a current contract).

Somewhat remarkably, the $75MM guarantee gives Benintendi the largest contract in White Sox franchise history, narrowly topping Yasmani Grandal, who’d held the record at $73MM. The ChiSox have offered more than this in some high-profile free agent pursuits in recent years, most notably offering more than $200MM to Manny Machado and more than $100MM to Zack Wheeler. Both players, of course, ultimately signed elsewhere.

Yankees Have Discussed Outfield Trades With Twins, Diamondbacks

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The Yankees have had trade discussions with the Twins and Diamondbacks about their available outfielders, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post.

The Yankees already have two of their outfield positions accounted for, with Harrison Bader in center and Aaron Judge in right. There’s less certainty in left field, however, with Andrew Benintendi having departed via free agency. That leaves Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Cabrera as the remaining in-house options. Hicks is now 33 years old and has hit a combined .211/.322/.317 over the past two seasons. For a team in win-now mode like the Yankees, it’s understandable that they don’t want to rely on him as an everyday option. Cabrera just made his major league debut and only has 44 games under his belt. He fared well in that time but is a natural infielder who was learning outfield on the fly, meaning he’s probably best utilized as a utility option as opposed to an everyday player.

The desire for the Yanks to upgrade there is logical, as is their choice of trade partners. It was recently reported that the Twins had received some trade interest on Max Kepler, given that they have a large number of other outfield options on the roster. Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Kyle Garlick, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner and Mark Contreras are all options to join Byron Buxton in the Minnesota outfield. Since all of those guys apart from Buxton and Kepler have less than three years of MLB service time, it’s likely that the Twins would have some reluctance to parting with them.

Kepler, on the other hand, has one year remaining on his extension, though with a club option for 2024. He’ll be making a salary of $8.5MM in 2023 with a $1MM buyout on the $10MM option. Kepler has hit right around league average for his career, as his .232/.317/.427 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 101. However, his defense has allowed him to be a consistently productive player. He’s produced at least 2.0 wins above replacement in each of the last six full seasons, according to FanGraphs, in addition to adding 1.1 fWAR in 2020.

As for the Diamondbacks, they are also flush with young outfielders that have reportedly been popular in trade talks. Corbin Carroll is considered one of the best young players in the game and is the least available of the group. But aside from him, the club has Daulton Varsho, Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Pavin Smith, Dominic Fletcher and Kyle Lewis in their outfield picture. Aside from Lewis, those guys all hit left-handed, as does Kepler.

A left-handed hitter would be a good fit in the Yankee lineup for a couple of reasons. First of all, the lineup skews right-handed, with Anthony Rizzo the only lefty who is currently likely to get regular playing time. Secondly, the club’s “short porch” in right field traditionally boosts the value of lefty hitters. With the upcoming ban on infield shifts for 2023, a lefty in pinstripes could sell out for hard contact and not have to worry as much about watching liners and grounders get swallowed up by the defense.

As for their preferences for a target, Sherman suggests the Yankees would prefer Varsho to Thomas. That’s not a surprising choice to make, given Varsho’s strong breakout campaign in 2022. He hit 27 home runs and stole 16 bases, producing an overall batting line of .235/.302/.443 for a wRC+ of 106. Varsho was also excellent in the field, with his all-around game leading to a 4.6 fWAR tally on the year. Thomas, meanwhile, hit just .231/.275/.344 in his MLB debut, leading to a wRC+ of 71. He was also strong on defense and was only 22 years old, turning 23 in April. He could still blossom into a great major leaguer but it might still take some time.

Of course, the Yanks won’t be alone in calling these clubs about their attractive outfielders. The previous reporting on the D-Backs had already listed the Brewers, Blue Jays, A’s, Marlins, White Sox and Reds as interested, while Sherman notes that the Mets were on the phone as well. They reportedly were trying to acquire Thomas, but when Arizona asked for prospect Brett Baty, the Mets decided to hang onto him and just sign Nimmo instead. If the Mets found the asking price on Thomas to be too high, it’s fair to wonder if the Yanks would want to pay it or go even higher for Varsho.

If the Yankees don’t find a deal to their liking on the trade market, Benintendi is still a free agent. Though he’s not quite the superstar who seemed to on the way to becoming earlier in his career, he’s still a solid regular. He only hit five home runs in 2022 but was solid in the field and hit .304/.373/.399 for a 122 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. MLBTR predicted he could land a contract of $54MM over four years, or $13.5MM per season. Sherman reports that Benintendi is looking for a five-year deal and it wouldn’t be a shock to see that come to fruition. Many players have landed much longer deals than expected this offseason, with each of Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Brandon Nimmo getting deals at least three years longer than projected. With Judge and Nimmo off the board, Benintendi is arguably the top remaining outfielder on the open market, which might lead to his market picking up soon.

It’s possible that the competitive balance tax might play a factor in a free agent pursuit, as Sherman opines that the Yankees might prefer to stay under the third CBT tier of $273MM. By crossing that line, the financial penalties would go up and the club would see its top 2023 draft pick pushed back by ten slots. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT number at $266MM, meaning that adding Benintendi or any other notable player could lead to the club attempting to find ways to shed salary, such as trying to trade Hicks or Josh Donaldson.

Astros Interested In Andrew Benintendi

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Left field is something of a question mark for the Astros, but the team might be looking to fill the position with a former Gold Glover.  Houston has had some discussions with free agent Andrew Benintendi, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports.

With Jose Abreu already acquired and Rafael Montero re-signed, adding Benintendi would be the Astros’ latest step towards fortifying their roster for another World Series bid.  The team was already known to be looking for a left-handed hitting corner outfielder, to add both a bit more balance to a mostly right-handed lineup, and to provide more assurance in left field.  Should an everyday player like Benintendi be signed, Jake Meyers would likely split time with Chas McCormick in center field, while Yordan Alvarez might see the occasional game in left field but would continue to primarily work as the designated hitter.

Benintendi wouldn’t come cheap, as MLBTR projects the 28-year-old to land a four-year, $54MM deal.  This price point factors in Benintendi’s relatively young age as he enters the free agent market, as well as a skillset that makes him a pretty safe bet to be a productive (if not necessarily a star) player going forward.

Being “only” a productive player seems like a respectable middle ground for Benintendi, who looked like a potential superstar early in his career with the Red Sox but then almost like a lost cause in the wake of a brutal 2020 season.  Benintendi rebounded with solid showings with the Royals and Yankees the last two seasons, moving to New York at the trade deadline before his season was ended by hamate bone surgery in early September.

This isn’t to say that Bentenindi might not yet have another breakout ahead of him, especially if he can turn around his drastic power dropoff in 2022.  Even without much pop, Benintendi still had a 122 wRC+ and a .304/.373/.399 slash line over 521 plate appearances last season.  A .352 BABIP aided that production, but Benintendi did an excellent job of taking walks, avoiding strikeouts, and putting the ball in play.  Combining that offensive profile with above-average defense and solid baserunning made for a 2.8 fWAR season for Benintendi in 2022, the second-highest fWAR total of his seven MLB seasons.

The Astros have just under $198MM in luxury tax commitments for 2023, so if Benintendi was signed to something in the range of that projected $13.5MM average annual value, Houston would still have plenty of room under the $233MM tax threshold to make further moves.  Owner Jim Crane recently said that the Astros “certainly have the ability to go at or over” the threshold, and spending on multiple players (Abreu, and perhaps at least one of Benintendi or Willson Contreras) might be more of a preferable strategy than splurging on a short-term, high-AAV deal on Justin Verlander.

Mariners Have Checked In On Andrew Benintendi, Brandon Nimmo

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The Mariners swung an early trade this month, acquiring outfielder Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays, but they may not be done adding outfielders. According to Daniel Kramer of MLB.com, the team has checked in on top outfield free agents Andrew Benintendi and Brandon Nimmo. It comes after president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told reporters he was open to bringing in another outfielder.

Seattle currently has Julio Rodriguez and Hernandez locked into center and right field respectively, but left field could be open. Jesse Winker has played poor defense in left and struggled at the plate last season, and there’s been some reports that the Mariners could be open to moving him. Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell have both struggled in the big leagues, but they’re also former top prospects who are young enough to turn things around. Yet it’s clear this Mariners team is in win-now mode, so wouldn’t be surprising to see them pursue upgrades.

Nimmo seems less likely than Benintendi. Outside of Aaron Judge, he’s the clear top outfield free agent after an outstanding platform year that saw him post a 134 wRC+ and amass 5.4 fWAR. MLBTR predicted him to earn a five-year, $110MM deal this winter. With Rodriguez entrenched in center, Seattle could theoretically shift Nimmo to left, but there’s a lack of quality center field options available in free agency and a number of teams who need upgrades there. Given the price tag attached and the level of interest across the league, it seems unlikely Seattle would win a bidding war against teams operating with a bit more urgency at the position.

Benintendi doesn’t possess the upside of Nimmo, but still represents a quality option. His strong contact approach could make him a strong fit to leadoff ahead of Rodriguez, Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez and the other Seattle power hitters. Between the Royals and Yankees in 2022, he posted a .304/.373/.399 line with five home runs while providing solid defense in left. He’d also come a lot cheaper than Nimmo, as MLBTR predicted him to land a four-year, $54MM contract.

While Benintendi and Nimmo are the two reported names, a number of other options would also make sense, including a reunion with Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto or Cody Bellinger, not to mention a host of trade possibilities. Any addition could see Kelenic and Trammell floated in trade discussions. They’d be selling low on both, but teams would surely be interested in acquiring either to try and tap into the potential that made them both top outfield prospects in all of baseball.

Latest On Yankees’ Free Agent Targets

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The Yankees are certainly hoping they’ll be able to re-sign Aaron Judge, but until the AL MVP makes his decision, the Yankees are considering several other free agents and trade targets.  In addition to some names already linked to New York in past reports, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that the Yankees have checked in on the likes of Justin Verlander, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto, and their own incumbent free agents Jameson Taillon and Andrew Benintendi.

In general, it’s pretty commonplace for the Yankees (or pretty much any team, particularly the biggest spenders) to at least get in contact with agents early in the offseason in order to gauge interest, or get a sense of asking prices for any particular player.  As such, some of these players might not necessarily be at the top of the Yankees’ target list, and Heyman notes that some could be options only if Judge signs elsewhere.  For instance, though “the Yankees seek multiple outfielders,” Heyman doesn’t think the Bronx Bombers would both re-sign Judge and also add Nimmo on a pricey contract.  Likewise, the Yankees aren’t expected to bid at the top of the shortstop market, unless a Judge departure gives them new reason to explore Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, and company.

Since Anthony Rizzo has already been re-signed to solidify the first base position, New York’s offseason plan on the position player side looks pretty set — retain Judge, then add a less-expensive second outfielder (Conforto or Bellinger are both likely candidates for one-year contracts).  Should an opportunity arise to move an infielder like Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, or perhaps even Gleyber Torres, the Yankees could pounce, but the presence of Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and yet-to-debut star rookie Anthony Volpe gives the Bombers some flexibility in figuring out the infield mix.  DJ LeMahieu’s toe injuries will also factor into the front office’s next decisions.

If Judge did leave the Bronx, of course, any number of new backup plans could be put into place.  However, a Judge departure may only throw the position-player scenarios into flux, since Heyman writes that “the pitching pursuits are said to be ’on different tracks’ ” than the Yankees’ interest in position players.  Though naturally adding any high-profile player has an overall impact on a roster in terms of salary or luxury-tax figures, it makes sense that adding a new pitcher isn’t necessarily tied to Judge’s situation, since Judge’s return has a bigger chain reaction on the lineup as a whole.

Putting a new starter into the rotation is a cleaner fit, especially if that new addition is an ace like Verlander or Rodon.  While the Cy Young Award winner has been a Yankees target in the past, Heyman reports that “the Yankees’ confidence level on [signing] Verlander is low,” so he might also be something of a Plan B option for the club.

The Yankees also might not necessarily be seeking an ace, since Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes are already in the fold.  Since Luis Severino, Frankie Montas, and Domingo German have their share of question marks, adding a reliable third-starter type like Taillon would help solidify the starting five.  Kodai Senga (another pitcher garnering interest from the Bronx) is perhaps something of a wild card, given how it isn’t known how well he can make the transition from NPB to the major leagues.  Senga’s stuff could make him a front-of-the-rotation arm might off the bat, or he might end up being more suited to the middle or back of a pitching staff.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Benintendi, Taillon Open To Yankees Return; Team Unlikely To Pursue Free Agent Shortstops

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The Yankees are faced with plenty of questions heading into the off-season, following their ALCS sweep at the hands of the Astros. The team has already said they’re planning to keep Aaron Boone as manager next season, but the makeup of the roster Boone oversees could see some significant change. The free agency of outfielder superstar Aaron Judge will justifiably dominate the headlines over the coming months, but there’s a plenty of other storylines in the Bronx that’ll be interesting to follow.

The Yankees have eleven pending free agents, although it seems likely they’ll pick up Luis Severino’s $15MM team option and drop that number to ten. Among them are Jameson Taillon and Andrew Benintendi. Both have indicated they’re open to a return to the Yankees, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. That they’ve said that is not a great surprise, as most pending free agents say they’re open or willing to discussing a return to their previous team, but it is interesting to consider in the case of Benintendi and Taillon as there’s a feasible pathway to the Yankees re-signing both.

Taillon was acquired from the Pirates prior to the 2021 season for minor leaguers Roansy Contreras, Maikol Escotto, Miguel Yajure and Canaan Smith-Njigba. Taillon is no stranger to injuries, he’s had Tommy John surgery twice as well as a hernia surgery back in 2015. He’s also a cancer survivor, having undergone testicular cancer surgery in 2017. His second Tommy John caused him to miss the 2020 season, and the Yankees managed his workload accordingly in 2021, so while he made 29 starts he only threw 144 1/3 innings. He ramped up in 2022 though, and tossed 177 1/3 innings of 3.91 ERA ball. Taillon’s never been a big strikeout pitcher, and he punched out roughly a fifth of batters this season, but he displayed an excellent control, walking batters just 4.4% of the time. He is a little susceptible to the long ball, but on the whole Taillon is a reliable mid-rotation arm that could help a lot of teams moving forward.

One of those teams could be the Yankees. Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes will be back at the top of the rotation, while a returning Luis Severino should round out the first three spots. After that, there’s a few question marks. Domingo German threw 72 1/3 innings of  3.61 ERA ball, although his FIP sat at 4.44 and his fastball velocity declined slightly in 2022. Mid-season trade acquisition from Oakland Frankie Montas struggled in eight starts before going on the IL for the rest of the regular season, he returned in the playoffs but only threw one inning. Montas has a sound track record as a mid-rotation arm, but pitched to a 6.35 ERA in New York. He experienced a sharp decline in strikeouts, just 17.8% with the Yankees down 8% from the first half of the season in Oakland, while his walk rate jumped slightly. The Yankees could conceivably turn to both German and Montas to round out their rotation but given the question marks over both, the reliability of Taillon to solidify the backend of the rotation could hold plenty of appeal to Brian Cashman’s front office.

Benintendi was brought over from the Royals at the deadline, with the Yankees sending minor leaguers Chandler Champlain, T.J. Sikkema and Beck Way the other way. The 28-year-old was in the conversation for the batting title in Kansas City, slashing .320/387/.398. He got off to a slow start (two hits in his first 25 ABs) but found his groove eventually and hit .303 for the rest of the campaign. He missed almost all of September, however, with a broken hamate bone and failed to return for the playoffs. The Yankees acquired Benintendi as a lefty-hitting contact bat to balance out their slugger-heavy lineup, as well as offer strong defense in left. When fit, he provided exactly that and should have no shortage of multi-year offers in free agency.

Of course, the top priority in the outfield for the Yankees is Aaron Judge, but the team would do well to bring back Benintendi in left. The team used ten different players in left in 2022, with none playing in more than 55 games there. Aaron Hicks got the bulk of the playing time, but put up underwhelming numbers and at 33 is showing signs of decline. The team turned to rookie Oswaldo Cabrera down the stretch, and got solid results despite the fact he’d come up through the minor leagues as an infielder. He hit .247/.312/.429 in 44 games and impressed defensively. Depending on other moves, the team may prefer to keep Cabrera as a utility-man on the bench and bring back Benintendi as the team’s everyday left-fielder.

Meanwhile, Jim Bowden of The Athletic reports that the Yankees are indicating they won’t be shopping for a top shortstop this winter. That’s no surprise, as the club opted to trade for Isiah Kiner-Falefa instead of go after Carlos Correa and Corey Seager last winter. While Kiner-Falefa drew the ire of the fanbase, that move was made with a view to eventually having one of the Yankees’ top prospects Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe take over long-term. Peraza impressed in a handful of appearances in September, and made the playoff roster, and it seems likely the Yankees’ 2023 opening day shortstop will come from that trio.

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