Braves, Rangers, Yankees Interested In Matt Olson
3:45pm: The Braves have also been in contact about Olson, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets. Atlanta’s interest in Olson also dates back to before the lockout, as the World Series champs were exploring a potential fallback plan for first base if Freddie Freeman signed elsewhere.
9:09am: The Yankees considered the Athletics’ asking price prior to the lockout far too high, tweets SNY’s Andy Martino, who adds that the Yanks made clear they would not include top shortstop prospect Anthony Volpe in a potential deal.
7:45am: The lockout is over, and in the coming days, the dam will break on a historic flood of transactions. Athletics first baseman Matt Olson headlines a deep class of trade targets and serves as the focal point of a prospective Athletics fire sale, which GM David Forst alluded to back in November when acknowledging that the team would have to listen to trade offers on the majority of its roster this winter. It’s already known that the Rangers and Yankees are among the teams with interest in Olson, but their efforts to acquire him can now resume in earnest.
Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that the Rangers planned to reach out to the A’s shortly after the lockout lifted to rekindle talks. Texas, however, would need to be confident in its ability to sign Olson to a contract extension before making a deal, per Grant. That’s sensible, as even after spending a half-billion dollars to sign Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, the Rangers are still a ways from contending. Olson is only controlled another two seasons, and if a playoff run in 2022 isn’t a legitimate possibility, then the prospect of really only having Olson for one year of earnest contention would make the sky-high prospect price perhaps unpalatable.
As for the Yankees, Newsday’s Erik Boland tweets that Olson is their preferred option for an upgrade at first base. The Yanks currently have Luke Voit (a trade candidate himself) and DJ LeMahieu as in-house options, but Voit is coming off an injury-marred season and doesn’t have nearly the same defensive prowess as Olson. LeMahieu is looking for a rebound at the plate himself and is better deployed as a second baseman or third baseman, where his glove carries more value. As we explored during the lockout, there are plenty of options for the Yankees, who have also been rumored to have varying degrees of interest in free agents Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo.
With regard to the Rangers, it shouldn’t be assumed that they’ll be in on Freeman or Rizzo if they miss out on Olson. Grant characterizes Olson and lefty Clayton Kershaw as something of specialty targets for the Rangers, suggesting that if they’re not successful in acquiring one or both players, there may only be an additional $10-15MM in total spending for Texas this winter. Absent a deal for Olson, the Rangers would likely turn first base back over to Nathaniel Lowe, who had a solid year at the plate in 2021 (.264/.357/.415, 18 homers).
Texas and New York will be just two of a wide swath of teams interested in prying Olson away from Oakland. The Braves are known to have some interest as well but would probably only make a strike to acquire Olson if they know for certain that Freeman is headed elsewhere. Freeman, the 2020 NL MVP, has been linked to the Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays and even the Rays, who made him an offer before the lockout. The markets of the two star first basemen are inextricably linked, and with Freeman expected to act quickly in making a decision post-lockout, the market for Olson could soon gain some clarity.
While the A’s will be listening on more than just Olson — Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Ramon Laureano and Lou Trivino could also be marketed — there’s little denying that Olson is the headliner of their options and, arguably, of the entire trade market. The 2021 All-Star and two-time Gold Glover belted a career-high 39 home runs last year while posting the best all-around production of his Major League tenure. Olson hit .271/.371/.540 and maintained a huge 13.1% walk rate while simultaneously cutting his once-problematic strikeout rate from 31.4% in 2020 all the way down to 16.8%. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12MM this coming season.
Latest On Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien
The deadline for players issued qualifying offers to decide on whether or not to accept has now passed, with Brandon Belt of the Giants being the only one out of the group of 14 to accept and return to his previous team. That means the 13 players who turned down the $18.4MM offer are now attached to draft pick forfeiture, including Carlos Correa. Of course, a player of Correa’s skill level won’t see his market greatly affected by a detail like that. In fact, MLBTR recently placed the star shortstop at the top of this year’s list of free agents and projected that he would land a contract of $320MM over ten years, despite the qualifying offer.
Another thing that apparently won’t stand in his way is any lingering resentment out of the Yankee organization in regard to the 2017 Astros sign-stealing scandal. It has been speculated by some people that the Yankees may not want to make a high profile acquisition of Correa, given he was a member of that now-infamous team, which defeated the Yankees in the ALCS before going on to beat the Dodgers in the World Series. But the Yankees decision makers have made comments that seem to suggest it won’t be an issue for them.
When asked if the scandal would play a role in how the team views Correa, Boone said “No,” per Dan Martin of the New York Post, but did acknowledge that the players would have to feel the same way. “Anytime we’re involved in a free agent that’s of large significance and will attract a lot of years and dollars, we’re all gonna feel really good about it.” The article also relays a statement general manager Brian Cashman made last week, saying, “Things like [fan or player sentiment are] not part of that process.”
Hal Steinbrenner evidently feels similar, as Jeff Passan of ESPN relays a quote from the team’s managing partner. “I think most people have moved on from that,” he said. “I mean, I think it’s only healthy to move on from things like that instead of stewing on it year after year. But, you know, people have the opinion that they want to have about that particular player. But, in general, we’re going to look at every single option. It’s the same thing we do every year.”
That’s surely good news for Correa, as he and his representatives will want as many teams in the bidding as possible, especially historically big spenders such as the Yankees. The club is certainly a fit for a shortstop, since moving Gleyber Torres to second base in September. However, they may opt not to make a long commitment to Correa, or any of the other highly-touted free agent shortstops, on account of prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe. “No question that factors in because we do feel in Peraza and Volpe we do have two long-time impact big-league players,’’ said Boone. “We’re excited about those players and believe they are real. That factors into any decisions the organization and [Cashman] make.”
Volpe is generally regarded above Peraza by prospect evaluators, as he is ranked the 18th prospect in all of baseball by FanGraphs, 22nd by Baseball America and 15th by MLB Pipeline, whereas Pereza comes in 48th for FanGraphs and 58th for both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. However, Volpe has only climbed as far as High-A in the Yankees’ system, meaning he’s unlikely to be an option for the big league club in the short term. Peraza, on the other hand, played most of 2021 at Double-A and finished the season with eight games at Triple-A, making it at least feasible that the club decides to forego a big expenditure at the position, although it’s also possible that’s just posturing for negotiating purposes.
Elsewhere around the league, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times doesn’t see the Mariners as a fit for Correa, based on the contract length. He reports that it’s believed Correa is trying to get within range of Francisco Lindor‘s $341MM ten-year extension or “at least an 8- to 9-year deal with an average of $30 million per season and an opt-out clause.” Divish opines that Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto may not want to sign a contract of quite that length, based on his personal experiences trying to work around contracts like that, citing the Albert Pujols contract from Dipoto’s time in Anaheim as well as the Robinson Cano contract that was already on the books when he came to Seattle.
Marcus Semien, however, could be a better fit for the Mariners. He’s almost exactly four years older than Correa – 31 and 27, respectively – meaning he won’t be able to demand a contract of quite the same length. MLBTR predicted he could garner a contract of $138MM over six years, an average annual value of $23MM. But Divish has a different framing on the situation, saying, “The thinking is that the Mariners might have to offer him a five-year, $140-$150 million contract to keep him from going to San Francisco or New York on a four-year deal.”
$150MM over five years would be $30MM per season and make Semien one of the highest-paid players in the game by average annual value, which would be an incredible feat considering that he had to settle for a one-year, $18MM contract with the Blue Jays when he was a free agent a year ago. Like Correa, he also turned down a qualifying offer this week and will now be tied to draft pick forfeiture.
Yankees Attempted To Acquire Andrelton Simmons At Trade Deadline
Upon first glance, it would be natural to expect the Yankees to be active in exploring this winter’s deep class of free agent shortstops. Once they bit the bullet and officially moved Gleyber Torres off shortstop, their need at the position became explicit. Prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza have impressed enough, however, that the Yanks could choose a short-term bridge option as they await further development for their youngsters, suggests Andy Martino of SNY.tv.
Andrelton Simmons might fit the bill as a short-term option. The Yankees tried to acquire Simmons at the trade deadline, Martino notes, and they could be again as a fill-in with defensive upside that might complement Torres’ skill-set up the middle. Yankee fans might dream a little bigger, considering Simmons’ .223/.283/.274 line across 451 plate appearances with the Twins.
Martino also suggests Marcus Semien as a potential short-term option, given his now-proven ability to play second base, should they want to make room for Volpe or Peraza when they’re ready. There figures to be quite a bit more competition for Semien’s services after another MVP-caliber year. The Yankees, of course, have the means to compete with anyone, and they are one of a choice few teams with a clear need at shortstop.
In terms of their potential competition, the Tigers could upgrade shortstop, making Niko Goodrum a super-utility player as they look to turn the page on their rebuild. The Nationals can do the same with Alcides Escobar, and they have some money to spend should they want to an immediate replacement for Trea Turner. The Orioles don’t have a clear long-term solution at short, but they might not be ready to spend significantly in free agency.
There are plenty of other teams that could keep a star shortstop from simply falling in the Yankees’ lap. The Blue Jays will need to replace Semien if they don’t bring him back. The Angels and A’s could both stand to upgrade. Thinking outside the box a little, the Phillies could push for a shortstop, given Didi Gregorius‘ down year and their clear desire to compete. There might even be more teams looking for a short-term option like Simmons than there are clubs with surefire intentions to pursue the Correa/Seager/Story/Baez/Semien/Taylor class of free agent. Regardless, the Yankees figure to be players somewhere in the market this winter.
Yankees Sign First Rounder Anthony Volpe
The Yankees have announced the signing of first-round draft pick Anthony Volpe was signing on the dotted line. He’ll receive $2,740,300, per MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo (via Twitter).
Volpe, a high-school shortstop from New Jersey, was taken with the 30th overall selection. That choice comes with a $2.37MM pool allocation, so the Yanks will have to find some savings from other signings.
Most pundits didn’t have Volpe rated quite this high. But the Fangraphs duo of Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel graded him the 38th-best prospect available.
Volpe is known most for his glovework, as he’s considered a polished and talented shortstop. Questions remain about his bat. Entering the draft, many wondered whether Volpe would end up at Vanderbilt, but he chose instead to launch a career with his hometown team.