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Giants Avoid Arbitration With Brandon Belt

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The Giants have avoided arbitration with first baseman Brandon Belt by agreeing to a one-year deal, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. He’ll receive $6.2MM, Jon Heyman tweets.

The sides had seemed headed for a hearing. MLBTR projected Belt to earn the exact amount he ultimately received in his second (and second-to-last) trip through arbitration. He filed for $7.5MM, with the team countering at $5.3MM to create a $6.4MM midpoint.

Soon to turn 28, the smooth-swinging lefty has been a steady and excellent performer for San Francisco. Since debuting back in 2011, he’s racked up just over 2,000 plate appearances with a cumulative .271/.347/.456 batting line and 63 home runs. And he not only delivers a high-quality glove at first, but has shown the ability to fill in at the corner outfield in a pinch.

After an injury-shortened 2014, Belt got back on track in 2015 and was running numbers comparable to his excellent 2013 campaign before running into concussion issues late in the year. He is expected to be ready for a full spring, though, and health matters don’t appear to be much of a concern for the team.

There are indications that a long-term deal could be a consideration. And, indeed, the Giants already struck a deal with fellow 4+ service-time stalwart Brandon Crawford. Belt has always seemed a more tenuous fit in an extension scenario, though, as he occupies a position that could eventually house star catcher Buster Posey depending upon how things progress.

NL Notes: Belt, Lamb, Phillips, Hill, Plawecki

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The Giants and first baseman Brandon Belt have an arbitration hearing set for tomorrow, Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News tweeted last night. The two sides are facing a $2.2MM gap between Belt’s $7.5MM salary figure and the $5.3MM counter from the team (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker), and Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that with the hearing so close, the sides are focused on a one-year deal rather than a longer-term pact. Of course, long-term negotiations can always resume and carry on into Spring Training, so it does make some sense to focus efforts on avoiding the dreaded arbitration hearing for the time being.

Here’s more from the NL…

  • Reds left-hander John Lamb, who had been expected to compete for a spot in the team’s rotation this spring, had back surgery in December, reports MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. In an MLB Network appearance with Chris Russo today (video link), Cincinnati manager Bryan Price  revealed that Lamb will eventually be in the rotation mix but isn’t expected to be ready until mid-April. Per Price, right-handers Anthony DeSclafani and Raisel Iglesias are locked into rotation spots heading into Spring Training, but the remaining three spots will be up for grabs, with names like John Moscot, Cody Reed, Robert Stephenson and Brandon Finnegan all in the mix for one of the three spots until Homer Bailey returns, which the team expects will happen on May 1. Price went out of his way to state that despite some opinions that Finnegan is best-suited for the bullpen, the Reds like him as a starting pitcher.
  • From that same interview, Price said that he’s “not really surprised” that Brandon Phillips vetoed a trade that would have sent him to the Nationals despite the Reds’ rebuild. “Brandon, I think, just absolutely loves Cincinnati,” Price explained. “He loves the fans. He loves the team. He loves the ball park. I think he really values the fact that the Reds threw a lot of trust in him when they acquired him from Cleveland and gave him a chance to play.”
  • Tom Haudricout of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel spoke with Aaron Hill and Brewers manager Craig Counsell about the trade that sent the veteran Hill to Milwaukee. Hill explained to Haudricourt that being traded to a rebuilding team isn’t necessarily a bad thing, stressing that the emphasis on competition still exists and adding that he has a tremendous amount of respect for his new skipper. Of Hill, Counsell said that the Brewers look forward to Hill working with the team’s younger players and expect there to be “a lot of playing time” for Hill. “I do think his experience is valuable on this club with a lot of new faces and a lot of young faces, and a lot of players who are going to go through experiences in the big leagues for the first time,” said Counsell. Haudricourt notes that Hill will platoon with Scooter Gennett at second base and also receive some starts at third base against right-handed pitching.
  • Mets catcher Kevin Plawecki underwent offseason sinus surgery, he tells Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News. The operation, according to Plawecki, was performed with the goal of alleviating persistent bouts of dizziness. Plawecki says that his right sinus became completely blocked, preventing airflow through that side of his nose and leading to extreme dizzy spells that were aggravated each time the team would fly. “It was almost like a drunk feeling without having anything to drink, that’s the best description,” said Plawecki. The soon-to-be 25-year-old figures to serve as the primary backup to Travis d’Arnaud for the Mets this season and would step into a starting role in the event that d’Arnaud’s injury problems persist.

2016 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s noon deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

As MLBTR has previously explained, 156 players officially filed for arbitration (after some eligible and tendered players had already reached agreement). Of those, 34 players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still reach agreements before their hearings (which will take place between February 1st and 21st). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM — in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker (with two as-yet-unreported exceptions).

Olney’s Latest: Price, Greinke, Carrasco, Shark, Cubs, Heyward

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ESPN’s Buster Olney begins his latest Insider-only blog post by offering his take on David Price’s deal with the Red Sox. Olney notes that while the blame for Boston’s failure to retain Jon Lester as its ace lies on owner John Henry and not former GM Ben Cherington, Henry deserves credit for recognizing the mistake and going to the measures necessary to bolster his rotation. Rival evaluators have wondered to Olney how Price will adapt to losing his velocity as he ages, but for the short-term, Price gives Boston exactly what it needed — an ace to front the rotation and shift names like Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Eduardo Rodriguez and the injury-prone Clay Buchholz down the rotation.

Some more highlights from Olney’s column…

  • Price’s signing creates a perfect storm for Zack Greinke, who now stands alone as the top free agent starter on the market with a pair of division rivals — the Giants and Dodgers — bidding against one another to secure his services. One person close to the situation suggested to Olney that Greinke could land a five-year deal worth $165MM (an average annual value of $33MM), which meshes with a recent report from ESPN’s Jayson Stark that said Greinke could take a five-year deal if it meant a sizable increase over Price’s AAV.
  • The Indians have been listening to offers on their young starters, but the price tags for pitchers like Price and Greinke have underscored the value of controllable, young arms like Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, leading to a perhaps exorbitant asking price. For instance, the Indians asked the Giants for a package that included both Brandon Belt and Joe Panik in exchange for Carrasco in recent talks, according to Olney. While some Giants fans may recoil at the notion, Olney writes that with pitchers such as J.A. Happ commanding $36MM over three years, Carrasco’s four-year, $22MM contract and two club options come with incredibly high value. Carrasco talks between the two sides are dead at this point, he adds.
  • The Cubs have been positioning themselves for a run at Jeff Samardzija since before Price made his final decision. The Giants are among the other clubs with interest in Samardzija, according to Olney, who wonders if the teams that missed out on both Price and (eventually) Greinke will then check in with Johnny Cueto as an alternative.
  • The Cardinals have at least spoken to Greinke, but there’s no indication that they’re prepared to compete with the Dodgers and Giants for his services, making it seem unlikely that they’ll emerge as a late dark-horse candidate in his market.
  • The Cubs weren’t comfortable with the notion of roughly $55MM per season for a pair of pitchers each season for the foreseeable future, referring to a potential combo of Price and Lester. Olney calls a swap of Jorge Soler and Braves right-hander Shelby Miller a potential plan B for Chicago, which would then free up the club to make a run at Jason Heyward.

Extension Notes: Crawford, Belt, Keuchel, Harper

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Brandon Crawford didn’t want play anywhere other than San Francisco, which is why he was so insistent on full no-trade protection in his recent contract extension, CSNBayArea.com’s Alex Pavlovic writes.  Giants GM Bobby Evans and Joel Wolfe, Crawford’s agent, first discussed an extension last spring but talks didn’t really go anywhere, so discussions were re-opened in October while Evans was waiting for free agency to open.  As Pavlovic notes, locking Crawford up early means the Giants can now use the Gold Glove-winning shortstop as a selling point to attract free agent starters.  Crawford has his extension settled, and here’s some more news about other stars who may be in line for big multi-year deals…

  • With Crawford’s contract settled, Brandon Belt could be the next Giant to receive an extension, Pavlovic writes in a separate piece. Evans said he’s had some talks with Belt’s representatives but it’s possible they could settle his 2016 contract first before exploring a longer-term deal.  Belt’s concussion history isn’t an obstacle, as Evans said the Giants have “gotten very good medical info that doesn’t give us concerns about Brandon’s health.”  Belt hit .280/.356/.478 with 18 homers in 556 plate appearances last season, and while the Giants were still prone to sitting him against left-handed pitching, Belt posted a very respectable .802 OPS in 145 PA against southpaws.  He’s projected by MLBTR to earn $6.2MM in 2016, his second year of arbitration eligibility.  San Francisco doesn’t have any intention of trading Belt, Pavlovic adds, so rumors of the team’s interest in Chris Davis may be overblown.
  • Dallas Keuchel and the Astros are expected to discuss a long-term deal this offseason and both Keuchel and GM Jeff Luhnow speak to the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich about the possible shape of these talks.  Keuchel is something of a “hard comp,” as Drellich notes, because of how few players have matched his exact career path.  MLBTR’s Steve Adams described some of the main points that will go into the Keuchel negotiations when news first broke of the extension talks in August.
  • Six rival executives gave their guesses about what a Bryce Harper extension might look like to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, with guesses ranging from six years and $180MM to a record-breaking 15-year, $450MM deal with a player opt-out clause.  While the Nationals would be extending Harper at his peak of production, the team would also have some leverage since Harper’s current contract limits his earnings through that would’ve been some very expensive arbitration years.  The executives aren’t sure exactly what form a Harper extension could take, though it could be a moot point since they doubt an extension will be signed — most Scott Boras clients hit free agency rather than sign lengthy extensions with their original teams.  Kilgore’s piece is well worth a full read, as it’s a very interesting look at the numerous factors that will go into Harper’s next contract (whether it’s an extension or a free agent deal) and the six execs present a wide range of fascinating contract scenarios.

Trade Market Notes: Tigers, Fernandez, Chavez, Belt

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The Tigers have canvassed the trade market for late-inning relievers, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets, checking in on closers including Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. But the team is “not comfortable with [the] asking prices” it’s been quoted, says Rosenthal. Of course, Detroit has also been tied to several of the best-available free agent relievers. If a swap isn’t in the offing, presumably the club will look to the open market to build out its pen.

Here are some more trade market notes:

  • There was some buzz yesterday surrounding the possibility of the Marlins dangling stud righty Jose Fernandez in trades after Craig Mish of Sirius XM tweeted that there is a “growing sentiment” inside and outside the organization that a deal could occur this winter. That’s hardly an indication that a deal is likely, but it wouldn’t be surprising for the Fish at least to listen. The Scott Boras client has three years of control remaining and doesn’t seem likely to sign an extension. While he’ll be rather affordable — MLBTR projects only a $2MM arbitration salary because of his limited innings last year — he’d also be a hotly-pursued trade piece that could potentially bring back a huge return of more controllable talent at or near the big league level.
  • Marlins sources downplayed the likelihood of a Fernandez deal to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. And club president David Samson told Jackson: “Some players are more likely to be traded than others. Jose fits in the latter category. He is a Marlin for at least the next three years and hopefully longer and we look forward to the start of the 2016 season.” As MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro notes on Twitter, it is also worth bearing in mind that the club is in the middle of important TV rights fees negotiations. Dealing away one of the club’s two major stars wouldn’t figure to aid the club’s leverage in those talks.
  • The Athletics have fielded “significant trade interest” in righty Jesse Chavez, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. Oakland could consider dealing the 32-year-old swingman now that free agent lefty Rich Hill has signed, Passan adds. MLBTR projects Chavez to earn $4.7MM in his final trip through arbitration.
  • After extending Brandon Crawford yesterday, there’s still some uncertainty surrounding the Giants’ other key, 4+ service-time infielder by that first name. First baseman Brandon Belt could also be an extension candidated, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports (Twitter links), although he adds that the sides may not have progressed very far yet in talks. But there’s still also a possibility that Belt will be traded, per Schulman. While other teams may be somewhat hesitant since Belt ended the year with concussion issues, there are no reasons at present to believe that he’ll be limited going forward. And his consistent production would undoubtedly draw plenty of interest.

Quick Hits: Belt, Mondesi, Padres

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Brandon Belt will be out of the Giants’ lineup for the time being after his second concussion in two seasons, Alex Pavlovic of CSNBayArea.com writes. His current issues stem from a slide against the Reds on Tuesday. He had difficulty concentrating during Friday’s game. “He showed symptoms last night and that’s what we’re treating him for,” says manager Bruce Bochy. Belt also missed about a quarter of last season due to a concussion. Buster Posey will take over for Belt at first base until Belt returns. Here are more quick notes from around the league.

  • Manager Ned Yost says the Royals could promote another middle infielder, according to Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com (Twitter links). Both Alcides Escobar and Omar Infante left Friday’s game with injuries. Escobar’s injury was merely a bruise, as Flanagan notes, but Escobar’s injury (an oblique strain) could be more serious. That could mean the promotion of top prospect Raul Mondesi Jr., Flanagan speculates. Mondesi has only hit .240/.279/.372 in 338 plate appearances for Double-A Northwest Arkansas this season, but he’s a strong defensive player and baserunner, so he could potentially be useful to the Royals in those capacities. He also only recently turned 20 and is about four years younger than the average player in the Texas League. In July, Baseball America ranked Mondesi the No. 25 prospect in the game. MLB.com currently ranks him 35th.
  • The Padres have a tough task ahead of them this offseason, Jon Heyman says in a video for CBS Sports. They appear likely to lose Justin Upton, who will likely get a large contract elsewhere. Heyman says he hears the Padres will probably extend Ian Kennedy a qualifying offer after a strong second half, and Kennedy will likely refuse it. After a disappointing season, the Padres will have to decide this winter whether to attempt to contend again next year or whether to rebuild, trading players like Craig Kimbrel and Tyson Ross.

NL West Notes: Diamondbacks, Gray, Padres, Giants

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The Diamondbacks mismanaged their draft pool, tweets Jim Callis of MLB.com. The club took Dansby Swanson with the first overall pick and inked him at the last possible moment. In doing so, they spent $1.7MM less than their pool allowed. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams tweeted, the club could have spent up to $2.328MM more without losing a future draft pick. While a franchise shouldn’t spend that money just to spend it, they should have a few over-slot picks in the early rounds in order to make the most of limited resources.

  • The Rockies originally planned to promote top prospect Jon Gray for Sunday’s start, but they’ve backed off that decision, writes Nick Groke of the Denver Post. His last outing at Triple-A was a three-inning stinker in which he allowed four runs and six hits. The club will wait for a future opportunity to call upon their top pitching prospect. Eddie Butler will take tomorrow’s start.
  • Former Padres GM Josh Byrnes steadily built the farm system during his tenure with the club, writes Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Now current GM A.J. Preller is being second guessed for his bold decision to dismantle the farm for win-now talent. The club could be one year closer to a more organic revitalization, but now the farm system is shallow. Massive offseason overhauls have a bad track record – ask the Marlins and Blue Jays (and the White Sox). It’s also worth noting that Preller may have wanted to reshape the farm system to his preferences.
  • The Giants have built one of the best infields in the sport, notes Jonah Keri of Grantland. The home grown crew includes several surprising contributors. Brandon Belt was a well-regarded prospect – especially among sabermetric circles. However, Brandon Crawford’s offensive emergence was unexpected. Joe Panik is deceptively well-rounded. Matt Duffy was supposed to back up Casey McGehee. Instead, he’s arguably the best rookie in the National League, a class that includes Kris Bryant and Maikel Franco among others.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: Monday

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As of Monday morning, 35 players had yet to come to an agreement with their team after exchanging arbitration figures (as can be seen in our Arb Tracker). We’ll keep track of the day’s minor settlements here, with all projections coming via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz…

  • The Mets and Lucas Duda have avoided arb by settling on a one-year, $4.2MM contract, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Duda had filed at $4.7MM, while the Mets came in with a $3.75MM offer. Duda’s contract is just shy of the $4.225MM midpoint and his $4.3MM projection. The 28-year-old was arb-eligible for the second time this offseason after a breakout season in which he batted .253/.349/.481 with a career-best 30 home runs. He’ll be eligible twice more as a Super Two player.
  • Heyman also tweets that Brandon Belt and the Giants have settled on a $3.6MM salary for the 2015 season. Eligible for arbitration for the second time as a Super Two player this offseason, Belt received a fairly small $700K raise from last year’s $2.9MM salary after injuries limited him to just 61 games. When on the field, Belt batted .243/.306/.449 with a dozen homers in 235 plate appearances. He had filed at $4.5MM as the Giants filed at $3MM, making for a $3.75MM midpoint. While he settled a bit shy of that midpoint, he still did well to top his $3.4MM projection by $200K.

Injury Notes: Fernandez, Cisnero, Garcia, Belt, Buxton, Beltran

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Injuries continue to dominate the headlines around the league, led of course by the most impactful UCL tear in a year already full of them. The news that star Marlins hurler Jose Fernandez is likely to undergo Tommy John surgery has capped off a difficult stretch of pitching injuries, leading to reactions from around the game. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports says that understanding and addressing the rash of elbow injuries is in its infancy, and could be decades away from any kind of satisfying resolution. Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Insider link) writes that the club did not mishandle Fernandez, and that the lesson teams have drawn from the rash of TJ procedures is to maximize the innings of young arms before they hit the open market. And Tom Verducci of SI.com argues that the issue is not use at the major league level so much as years of added stress before players become professionals, and explores various possible solutions.

Let’s run through the latest injury news that carries potential hot stove implications:

  • A beleaguered Astros bullpen (collective 5.91 ERA) will be without young righty Jose Cisnero for the rest of the year as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, tweets MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. The 25-year-old threw just 4 2/3 ineffective innings in 2014, but tossed 43 2/3 frames of 4.12 ERA ball in his debut season last year. Entering 2013, Cisnero was rated Houston’s 15th-best prospect by Baseball America, which noted that he could become an innings-eating starter.
  • Cardinals starter Jaime Garcia has seemingly defied the odds and worked himself back to the point that he is now a candidate to receive a big league start this weekend, tweets Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com. Garcia’s most recent problems have been in the shoulder, though he has previously undergone TJ surgery. Garcia, still just 27, has logged just 177 innings under his four-year, $27MM contract, which runs through 2015 and includes club options for the two following seasons ($11.5MM and $12MM, respectively, each with a $500K buyout).
  • The Giants will be without first baseman Brandon Belt for at least six weeks after successful thumb surgery, reports Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com (on Twitter). It appears that the team will utilize a mix of Michael Morse and Hector Sanchez at first while Belt recovers.
  • Twins minor leaguer Byron Buxton — the game’s consensus top overall prospect — learned today that he has re-aggravated the wrist injury that cost him most of the early portion of the season, reports MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger (Twitter links). Though the team does not believe the wrist is any worse than when it was first injured, but another extended absence would obviously further delay the 20-year-old’s final development push.
  • Outfielder Carlos Beltran, one of the major offseason signings by the Yankees, has been diagnosed with a bone spur in his right elbow. As MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports, the club will see if a cortisone show can allow Beltran to avoid surgery. “They believe it’s an old bone spur,” said manager Joe Girardi. “It’s aggravating his elbow now. If in a couple of days he doesn’t feel better, then my level of concern would be pretty high.”
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