Reds Shut Down Brandon Williamson’s Rehab Assignment
Reds lefty Brandon Williamson hasn’t pitched in the majors this season due to a shoulder strain he suffered back in spring training. He’d been out on a minor league rehab stint and looked to be nearing a potential return, but things have now hit a snag. The Reds announced today that Williamson has been pulled back from his rehab assignment — but not reinstated to the roster. Rather, he’s remaining on the injured list.
That typically indicates a setback, and shortly after the announcement, manager David Bell indeed announced to the Reds beat that Williamson is experiencing continued discomfort in his ailing shoulder (X link via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). He’ll be shut down for at least the next seven days while the Reds see how his shoulder responds and evaluate their options.
It’s poor timing for Williamson, who looked as though he might have a rotation spot to fight for upon his return. Cincinnati optioned struggling righty Graham Ashcraft to Triple-A Louisville yesterday, creating an opening in the rotation behind Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Frankie Montas and Andrew Abbott. The Reds have other options to fill that spot — Nick Martinez and Carson Spiers among them — but Williamson’s apparent setback is a most unwelcome development, given that he’s an intriguing young arm and potential building block for the staff.
Williamson, selected by the Mariners out of TCU in the second round of the 2019 draft, went from Seattle to Cincinnati as part of the swap sending Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker to the M’s. The 6’6″ southpaw was ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects by Baseball America at the time of the trade and wound up making his MLB debut with the Reds last year. In 23 starts, he pitched to a respectable 4.46 ERA, though that number is perhaps skewed by a rough arrival in the majors.
Williamson posted a 5.82 ERA through his first eight starts but rebounded with 78 1/3 innings of 3.79 ERA ball in his final 15 trips to the hill. After posting lackluster strikeout and walk rates of 17% and 9.9%, respectively, in those first eight outings, the Minnesota native settled in with stronger marks of 21.6% and 6.9% in the season’s final three months. It was a strong finish to his season, and when adding in 34 Triple-A frames to his 117 MLB innings, Williams closed out the year with a career-high 151 frames. Between his late performance and his lack of workload concerns, it seemed as though he’d pitched is way onto the Reds’ starting five — or at the very least into the conversation.
Any such arrival will now be further delayed. The Reds haven’t provided further details, but it’s obviously a worrisome sign when a pitcher who’s missed more than two months with a shoulder strain reports discomfort on the heels of a fourth rehab appearance. Presumably, the Reds will provide further details at some point next weekend or early in the following week. For now, Williamson will continue to accrue big league pay and service time on the 60-day injured list. He entered the season with 139 days of MLB service and has already reached one year, placing him on course to reach arbitration after the 2025 season as a Super Two player and free agency after the 2029 campaign.
Reds Re-Sign Mike Ford To Major League Deal
2:40pm: Encarnacion-Strand is going to miss a month to six weeks, manager David Bell tells Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
2:15pm: Ford’s deal is worth $1.3MM plus incentives, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. Assuming that’s prorated, he’ll make just over $1MM for the rest of the year.
1:35pm: The Reds announced Ford’s signing and the corresponding moves. Encarnacion-Strand has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a right ulnar styloid fracture. It’s unclear how long they expect him to be out of action. To open a 40-man spot, lefty Brandon Williamson was transferred to the 60-day IL. He’s been on the 15-day IL all year due to shoulder soreness. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported over a week ago that Williamson will be starting a rehab assignment May 9. He’s now ineligible to be activated until late May, 60 days from his initial IL placement, but he’ll likely need a few weeks to get stretched out anyhow.
12:15pm: The Reds are bringing first baseman/designated hitter Mike Ford back to the organization — this time on a major league contract, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The ZS Sports client will join the big league roster today. Cincinnati hasn’t announced the signing and will need to open a spot on the 40-man roster before Ford’s deal can become official.
It’s the third time Ford has signed with the Reds in fewer than three months. He’s previously signed and opted out of a pair of minor league contracts. The Reds could’ve added Ford to the big league roster when he triggered his opt-out clause last Friday but instead opted to let him become a free agent and test the market. It’s clear based on the number of times they’ve signed him that the Reds like the player, however, and it seems they were willing to match or beat whatever other offers Ford found in his brief foray into early season free agency.
Ford, 31, raked at a staggering .455/.486/.727 clip with three homers in 31 spring plate appearances before opening the season with a gaudy .297/.381/.538 slash in his first 105 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s cut his strikeout rate to a manageable 19.4% and coupled it with a stout 11.4% walk rate during his short time with Louisville.
Those impressive numbers come on the heels of a .228/.323/.475 slash in 251 plate appearances with the 2023 Mariners. Ford clobbered 16 home runs and walked at a strong 9.6% clip last year, but his 32.3% strikeout rate was an obvious eyesore. It was also nothing particularly new for Ford, a former Yankees farmhand who’s long had plus power and questionable bat-to-ball skills. In 719 big league plate appearances, Ford is a career .211/.309/.418 hitter. He’s actually hit fellow lefties better than righties, albeit in a small sample of 108 plate appearances compared to 611 plate appearances against righties.
Ford’s addition to the roster comes at a time when both Christian Encarnacion-Strand is struggling and when fellow lefty DH option Nick Martini has already been optioned to the minors. Encarnacion-Strand has been the primary first baseman in Cincinnati, logging 29 games at the position, but he’s flailed his way to a .190/.220/.293 slash in 123 plate appearances. Encarnacion-Strand has long had contact issues and sub-par walk rates, but this year’s 28.5% strikeout rate and microscopic 3.3% walk rate underscore that worrisome approach at the plate.
Ford will give the Reds a lefty-swinging alternative at first base or perhaps simply a regular option in the DH slot. The Reds have used a wide cast of characters there, but Ford could offer more stability in that role. If Cincinnati goes that route, one solution could be to option the struggling Will Benson (.191/.273/.391, 41.6% strikeout rate) and go with a regular outfield of Spencer Steer, TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley.
Reds Notes: Friedl, Rotation, Moll
Reds fans received some disappointing news regarding the status of center fielder TJ Friedl yesterday, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer relayed yesterday that the 28-year-old will need another 7-10 days of light activities before beginning to ramp up his rehab of a fractured wrist suffered during Spring Training last month.
No timetable for Friedl’s return to action was announced at the time of his injury, though Wittenmyer indicates that Friedl was hoping to have been cleared for more activity at this point in the recovery process. Friedl is joined on the injured list by infielder Matt McLain, who is expected to miss much of the 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery in late March. Despite the lack of a clear timeline for Friedl’s return to action, it appears the club is hopeful he’ll be able to return sooner rather than later, as he has not yet been placed on the 60-day IL alongside McLain.
The losses of Friedl and McLain to open the season, along with Noelvi Marte‘s absence due to an 80-game suspension following a positive PED test, have tested Cincinnati’s once-impressive positional depth early in the 2024 campaign. Those losses have left the Reds with a somewhat middling offense so far this season, as their 102 wRC+ entering play today ranked middle-of-the-pack in both the majors (14th) and the NL (7th). While youngsters like Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer have gotten off to phenomenal starts this season, other key hitters such as Jeimer Candelario and Christian Encarnacion-Strand have struggled badly to this point in the young 2024 season.
That uneven offense has thrust the club’s rotation mix into the spotlight. The club’s 4.11 starting ERA through their first 13 games this season is also middle of the pack, but the rotation corps received a major reinforcement today when the club announced that southpaw Nick Lodolo had been activated from the injured list to start this afternoon’s game against the White Sox. Once a consensus top-40 prospect in the sport, the 26-year-old Lodolo delivered an excellent rookie season in 2022 but was limited to just 34 1/3 innings of 6.29 ERA baseball last year amid injury issues.
Fortunately for the Reds, it appears the left-hander is once again healthy as he dominated the White Sox to the tune of 5 2/3 scoreless innings where he allowed just one hit and one walk while racking up ten strikeouts. If Lodolo can continue to provide quality production for Cincinnati going forward, he’d join Frankie Montas and Andrew Abbott at the front of the club’s starting rotation. Right-handers Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, and Nick Martinez are also in the club’s rotation mix for the time being, though it’s possible that one of that group could be pushed to the bullpen in the near future by Lodolo’s return. Martinez appears to be the most likely candidate for such a role, given his lengthy track record as a reliever and difficult start to the 2024 campaign.
That group of six appear to be unlikely to get further reinforcements in the near future, as club manager David Bell told reporters (including Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer) earlier this week that left-hander Brandon Williamson‘s target date for return isn’t until late next month. Williamson is currently nursing a shoulder strain but figures to be a quality depth option for the Cincinnati rotation once healthy after he pitched to a solid 4.46 ERA (102 ERA+) in 23 starts with the club last year.
Per Goldsmith, Bell indicated that the same late May timeline Williamson is on is also the expected track for lefty relief arm Alex Young. The 30-year-old hurler has been solid in middle relief the past two seasons, pitching to a 3.36 ERA with a 4.29 FIP in 88 appearances with the Reds, Giants, and Guardians the past two seasons. Young is joined on the shelf by fellow southpaw Sam Moll, though it appears the latter lefty is much closer to a return as the Reds announced this afternoon that he’s headed to Triple-A for a rehab assignment. Acquired from the A’s in exchange for right-hander Joe Boyle at the trade deadline last year, Moll was phenomenal with the Reds down the stretch as he pitched to a 0.73 ERA in 25 appearances. While Moll and Young are on the shelf, Cincinnati has relied on Brent Suter and Justin Wilson as their primary left-handed relief options.
Brandon Williamson To Begin Season On Injured List
Reds starter Brandon Williamson will begin the season on the 15-day injured list, manager David Bell informed the Cincinnati beat on Tuesday (relayed by Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The left-hander departed his Spring Training start over the weekend with shoulder soreness.
There’s no indication it’s expected to be a long-term issue, but the team didn’t provide a timeline for his return. Williamson held a spot in the Reds rotation for much of last season. He started 23 games and worked 117 innings as a rookie. After being hit hard through his first eight starts, Williamson settled in as a decent back-of-the-rotation contributor. He finished his debut campaign with a 4.46 ERA, a respectable figure for a rookie pitching in one of the league’s most hitter-friendly home environments.
That came with middling peripherals, but the TCU product still had a shot of securing a season-opening rotation spot if he were healthy. With Williamson on the shelf, Bell said that fellow lefty Andrew Abbott will get a starting job. The Reds had previously been noncommittal on that, even though Abbott had a strong rookie campaign. Over 21 starts, he worked to a 3.87 ERA while punching out 26.1% of opposing hitters. The overall numbers were impressive, but Abbott’s production fell off dramatically down the stretch. He carried a 2.35 ERA into August before allowing more than six earned runs per nine in each of the final two months.
Abbott rounds out a season-opening rotation that’ll be fronted by offseason pickup Frankie Montas. The Reds announced that the hard-throwing righty will get the nod on Opening Day for his team debut. He’ll be followed in some order by Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, fellow free agent signee Nick Martinez, and Abbott. Martinez has plenty of experience as both a starter and reliever. He’ll take at least one turn through the rotation but would be an option to move back to the bullpen once Nick Lodolo is ready for his season debut. The Reds have targeted the second week of April for the left-hander, who lost most of the 2023 season to a stress fracture in his left tibia.
Cincinnati was hit with bigger injury news over the weekend, as center fielder TJ Friedl was diagnosed with a fracture in his right wrist. He’ll be out for quite some time. At this stage of the offseason, there aren’t any MLB-caliber center fielders still available in free agency. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com writes that the Reds seem likely to turn to the combination of Will Benson and Stuart Fairchild to cover center field if they can’t find help outside the organization.
As a left-handed hitter, Benson would be in position for the stronger side of a possible platoon arrangement. The Reds kept him away from southpaws last season, limiting him to 44 plate appearances. Benson was excellent when put in favorable platoon situations. He hit .297/.389/.549 in a little under 300 trips versus righty pitching. That kind of production was always going to warrant a lot of play in the Cincinnati outfield. The bigger question is whether he’s capable of handling an up-the-middle position. Benson only has 88 major league innings in center field. Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved have each graded him as a roughly neutral defender in the corners.
Fairchild appeared in 97 games a year ago, hitting .228/.321/.388. He’s out of minor league options and was already set to break camp, but the Friedl injury pushes him into a more important fourth outfield role. The 28-year-old has posted roughly average offensive numbers against pitchers of either handedness in his major league career. He owns a more impressive .275/.371/.507 slash line over parts of three Triple-A campaigns.
Reds Designate Chasen Shreve For Assignment
The Reds announced today that left-hander Brandon Williamson has been activated from the COVID-19 injured list, with fellow lefty Chasen Shreve designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
Shreve, 33, signed a minor league deal with the Tigers in the offseason and cracked that club’s Opening Day roster. He posted a 4.79 earned run average over 47 appearances before getting released in August as that team began giving opportunities to younger players.
He landed with the Reds on a minors deal and was one of many pitchers recently ushered to the majors as the club dealt with a COVID outbreak. Over the past couple of weeks, five pitchers and one position player have been placed on the COVID IL, necessitating frequent roster moves as the club tried to continually bring in fresh arms. Shreve pitched 3 1/3 innings for Cincinnati since being added to the roster, allowing one earned run in that time. But as the affected players have been returning to the roster of late, Shreve has now been nudged out.
With the trade deadline long gone, the Reds will place Shreve on waivers in the coming days. If he were to pass through unclaimed, he would have the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. However, since it’s after September 1, he would not have postseason eligibility with any new club he joins. The Reds are within two games of the final Wild Card spot in the National League, so perhaps that gives Shreve incentive to stick around and hope for a shot at postseason play.
It’s also possible that he garners attention on waivers, based on his track record. His combined 4.63 ERA on the year isn’t especially impressive but his 23.3% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate are both solid. He has a career ERA of 3.97 over 367 career appearances. The Tigers are on the hook for what’s left of his salary, meaning a claiming club would only have to pay him the prorated version of the league minimum for any time spent on the roster.
Reds Select Chasen Shreve, Promote Connor Phillips
The Reds announced a series of roster moves this afternoon. The club placed right-hander Graham Ashcraft of the 15-day IL with a stress reaction in his big toe, placed left-hander Brandon Williamson on the COVID-19 IL, selected the contract of left-hander Chasen Shreve, and added right-hander Connor Phillips to the roster as a substitute player. Players on the COVID-19 IL don’t count against a club’s 40-man roster, so the Reds have plenty of temporary flexibility due to the number of players currently shelved with the virus. As a substitute player, Phillips is only temporarily on the roster and can be returned to the minors without being waived. As the club selected Shreve’s contract, he counts against the club’s 40-man roster in a more permanent fashion, though no corresponding move is needed at this time.
Phillips, 22, will make his major league debut the first time he gets into a game. MLB Pipeline ranks the young right-hander as the club’s fourth best prospect and the 70th best prospect in the sport. He opened the year with a dominant performance at Double-A, posting a 3.34 ERA in 64 2/3 innings of work with an incredible 39.1% strikeout rate. Since receiving a promotion to Triple-A, however, Phillips has begun to struggle. His 40 1/3 innings at the level have yielded a 4.69 ERA, while his strikeout rate has plummeted to 24.2% and his walk rate has ballooned to a massive 16.9%.
Given his age, prospect pedigree and dominance as recently as earlier this season, it’s certainly possible Phillips has a lengthy and successful big league career in his future. In the short-term, however, he’ll need to significantly cut down on the free passes if he hopes to help the 70-67 Reds fight their way into one of the NL Wild Card spots with key pitchers like Williamson and right-hander Hunter Greene out for an unknown amount of time due to the clubhouse’s COVID outbreak.
Shreve, 33, joined the Reds on a minor league deal last month. He had spent the 2023 season with the Tigers prior to that, pitching to a roughly league average 4.79 ERA and 4.06 FIP in 47 appearances with the club. The lefty veteran is in his tenth year as a major league pitcher, with a career 3.88 ERA. While he’s mostly looked the part of a middle reliever throughout his career, it’s worth noting he’s posted a 2.65 ERA with a 34.8% strikeout rate against same-handed hitters this season. With Sam Moll as the only other southpaw in the Cincinnati bullpen as things stand, Shreve seems likely to be able to carve out a specialized role in the Reds’ bullpen going forward.
Joining several of his teammates on the COVID IL is Williamson, who has looked the part of a solid mid-to-back of the rotation starter during his rookie campaign. Across 19 starts with the Reds this year, Williamson has posted a 4.20 ERA (109 ERA+) and a 4.51 FIP in 98 2/3 innings of work. The loss of a reliable rotation arm like Williamson further compounds the club’s pitching woes. In addition to Greene’s move to the COVID IL, the Reds recently lost any hope of left-hander Nick Lodolo returning this season.
Williamson isn’t the only starter hitting the shelf today, either, as Ashcraft moves to the 15-day IL following his start against the Cubs yesterday, in which he allowed three runs over five innings of work while striking out six. It’s been an up-and-down season for Ashcraft, who dominated to a 2.00 ERA in his first six starts this season before posting a brutal 12.82 ERA over his next eight starts. Since June 30, Ashcraft has posted a 2.58 ERA reminiscent of his strong start to the season, though his 19.8% strikeout rate and eight homers allowed in seven starts both leave his long-term viability as a rotation arm in question. Overall, he’s delivered a 4.76 ERA and 5.07 FIP in 145 2/3 innings of work this season.
Without Williamson and Ashcraft, the club’s rotation is facing a great deal of uncertainty, with only rookie Andrew Abbott as a surefire big league starter on the roster. Lyon Richardson took the ball against the Cubs for the second game of a doubleheader last night, but sports an ugly 6.75 ERA across three starts in the majors. The club will likely have to turn to the likes of Double-A swingman Carson Spiers and journeyman Brett Kennedy to take on innings with most of the club’s rotation out of commission.
Nick Lodolo Diagnosed With Stress Reaction In Tibia
Reds starter Nick Lodolo was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his left tibia earlier this week, writes Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He’ll be in a walking boot and go for another MRI in a couple weeks.
Lodolo was already placed on the 15-day injured list over the weekend. At the time, the club announced his injury as calf tendinitis. The Reds provided a one-month return timetable on Sunday, though it seems likely the revelation of the stress reaction will delay his return further. Manager David Bell told the club’s beat a more definitive recovery timeline won’t be clear until Lodolo’s follow-up imaging two weeks from now.
The 25-year-old southpaw is among the most important players in the organization. Lodolo and fellow top prospect Hunter Greene both made the season-opening rotation in 2022. Each impressed as rookies, enough so in Greene’s case the Reds signed him to the second-largest extension for a pitcher with between one and two years of major league service. Lodolo hasn’t inked the same kind of deal, though his camp reportedly had some conversations with Cincinnati brass about that possibility last month.
It had been a mixed season for Lodolo even prior to the injury. He’s been tagged for a 6.29 ERA over 34 1/3 innings through his first seven starts. That’s largely attributable to a staggering 10 home runs allowed (2.62 HR/9). The home run ball wasn’t an issue for Lodolo during his debut season, though, and he’s shown strong strikeout and walk numbers during year two. The TCU product has fanned 28.3% of opponents behind a strong 12.9% swinging strike percentage while cutting his walk rate from 8.8% to 6%.
Lodolo, Greene and Graham Ashcraft had been locked into rotation spots if healthy. With Lodolo out for a notable chunk of time, Cincinnati called up Brandon Williamson to make his MLB debut yesterday. Lodolo’s college teammate fared well in his first start, throwing 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball at Coors Field. Nightengale writes that Williamson is expected to remain in the rotation, joining Greene, Ashcraft and Luke Weaver.
For the fifth spot, the Reds appear likely to turn to righty Ben Lively. The 31-year-old has come out of the bullpen twice, combining for 5 1/3 frames, since being selected to replace Luis Cessa on the roster a little over a week ago. Nightengale writes that Lively will get the start on Friday against the Yankees, pushing him into the role he manned for Triple-A Louisville. He’d started four of five appearances with the Bats, working to a 2.33 ERA despite a middling 15.2% strikeout rate. His start will be his first at the big league level since 2018, when he took the ball five times for the Phillies.
Reds To Recall Brandon Williamson
The Reds will call up pitching prospect Brandon Williamson for his major league debut tomorrow, tweets Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Cincinnati is still deciding whether to start him or deploy him following an opener, but he’ll make his major league debut in Colorado.
Williamson is already on the 40-man roster. Cincinnati selected his contract last offseason to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He’s spent the 2023 campaign on optional assignment to Triple-A Louisville. He joined the taxi squad earlier today and will formally get his first major league call tomorrow. Cincinnati will need to make a 26-man roster move to accommodate his promotion.
The 6’6″ southpaw entered the professional ranks in 2019. The Mariners selected him in the second round out of TCU. Williamson showed intriguing stuff and racked up huge strikeout tallies up through Double-A over his first couple pro seasons. Heading into 2022, Baseball America named him the sport’s #83 overall minor league talent and called him a potential mid-rotation arm. Coming out of the lockout, the Reds acquired him as the top prospect in their return for Jesse Winker in the trade that saw Seattle absorb the final three years of the Eugenio Suárez contract.
Since landing with the Reds, Williamson has seen his prospect stock back up a little bit. He’s struggled to throw strikes and seen his swing-and-miss numbers dip against upper minors hitters. Williamson combined for a 4.11 ERA in 122 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year. He dropped off BA’s top 100, falling to tenth in the Cincinnati farm system in their estimation. The outlet suggested he looked more like a back-of-the-rotation type as his fastball velocity dipped into the lower 90s.
He’s had a tough beginning to the season in Louisville. Over eight starts, Williamson has allowed a 6.62 ERA in 34 innings. His 16.4% strikeout rate is the lowest of his professional career, while he’s still walking batters at an elevated 12.1% clip. He’s allowed just four runs in a combined 11 2/3 frames over his last two appearances, however. That’s enough for Cincinnati to give him a look at the back of a beleaguered major league rotation.
The Reds are expected to be without Nick Lodolo for a month due to a calf injury. They also recently designated struggling starter Luis Cessa for assignment, subtracting two members from their starting five. Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft and Luke Weaver are the only three pitchers with guaranteed rotation spots. Williamson should have a path to carving out a role if he performs well.
Cincinnati promoted another of its better prospects, middle infielder Matt McLain, for tonight’s game against the Rockies. Reds’ fans will get to see successive major league debuts on consecutive days as the front office starts to get looks at players it hopes can be pieces of a more competitive future. Cincinnati’s 18-22 start is enough to keep them within range of a weak NL Central thus far, but they’re not likely to hang in the divisional picture for a full season with their current rotation.
Reds Place TJ Friedl On IL With Oblique Strain
The Reds announced a series of roster moves today, including the selection of prospect Matt McLain, which was reported on yesterday. To make room for McLain on the active roster, outfielder TJ Friedl was placed on the 10-day injured list due to a left oblique strain, retroactive to May 12. To open a spot for McLain on the 40-man roster, first baseman Joey Votto was transferred to the 60-day IL. Additionally, left-hander Brandon Williamson is with the club on the taxi squad.
Friedl recently underwent an MRI which revealed only mild damage, though manager David Bell said on the weekend that the club would take 48 hours to decide on whether or not an IL trip was needed. It seems that they have decided on the cautious approach and will give Friedl a bit of a breather. Since the move is backdated, he can return in a week if the issue does indeed prove to be minor.
The loss of Friedl is rough for the Reds, as he’s been having a great season so far. He’s hitting .306/.351/.468 for a wRC+ of 117 while stealing four bases and getting good grades for his glovework, leading to a tally of 1.2 wins above replacement from FanGraphs after just 37 games. He’ll now hit the shelf but his absence will create an opening for McLain, one of the club’s many interesting infield prospects.
Votto’s move to the 60-day injured list isn’t a shock as he’s still trying to get healthy in the wake of last year’s rotator cuff and bicep surgery. He started a rehab assignment earlier this year but halted that in the middle of April and has yet to resume playing in official games. Since the 60-day count goes from his initial IL placement at the end of March, he’s now ineligible to return until late May, which didn’t seem to be on the table anyway.
As for Williamson, he’s one of the club’s top pitching prospects and could potentially be making his major league debut this week. The Reds have a couple of rotation vacancies after recently designating Luis Cessa for assignment and placing Nick Lodolo on the injured list. Perhaps Williamson will be slotted into one of those openings, though that has yet to be made official. He’s already on the 40-man roster but would require a corresponding move to get onto the active roster.
The Reds Should Expand Their Youth Movement Even Further
The Reds entered the 2023 season with a trio of young starters — Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft — headlining their rotation, as well as a rookie third baseman (Spencer Steer) and a closer entering just his second big league season (Alexis Diaz). None of that quintet had more than a year of Major League service time. Ashcraft and Steer both had less than one full year. The Reds might’ve spent a small amount on veteran free agents this offseason (e.g. Wil Myers, Luke Weaver, Curt Casali, Luke Maile), but one look at the roster left little doubt this was a rebuilding team.
Six weeks into the season, the youth movement has brokered mixed results. Greene and Ashcraft (Sunday’s meltdown notwithstanding) have both looked impressive in the rotation. Diaz is doing his best impression of his older brother, striking out a stunning 51.2% of his opponents through 11 innings. Steer has delivered roughly league-average offense and shown some versatility, beginning to take regular reps at first base with Myers and Joey Votto both on the injured list. Lodolo has been extraordinarily homer-prone, but his strikeout and walk rates are every bit as encouraging as they were during a strong rookie effort in 2022.
Cincinnati fans are getting a glimpse at the hopeful future core for the Reds, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that more youthful reinforcements are — or should be — on the horizon. The Reds have every reason to let Lodolo try to sort through his homer woes at the big league level, but the fourth and fifth spots of the rotation are another story entirely. Those have been occupied by veterans Weaver and the just minutes-ago-DFA’d Luis Cessa for the bulk of the season, and the results rather unsurprisingly haven’t been good.
Weaver has made just three starts to Cessa’s six, and while a 7.88 ERA doesn’t inspire any confidence, Weaver has at least posted a 26% strikeout rate against an 8.2% walk rate. They’re both better than average marks — the strikeout rate in particular. Like Lodolo (and many other Reds hurlers who have the challenge of pitching at Great American Ball Park), Weaver’s home run rate is through the roof (2.81 HR/9). The Reds spent a couple million dollars to sign him as a free agent, and Weaver’s only had three starts. Ugly as they’ve been, he’ll get another few turns, even if the leash is (or should be) short.
Cessa’s spot seemed far more vulnerable. (Hence the bulk of this piece already having been written just prior to his DFA… thanks for prompting some last-minute rewrites, Reds!) In six starts, he allowed an earned run per inning, walked more batters than he struck out, and was moved to the bullpen for his most recent appearance. He didn’t start a single game from 2019-21, making the Reds’ decision to move him into the rotation last year and then to guarantee him a 2023 rotation spot a rather peculiar one.
Cessa posted a pedestrian 4.30 ERA in ten starts last season with an even less-encouraging 5.02 FIP. That might’ve made him a fine sixth or seventh starting option, but the Reds opted to only sign Weaver this offseason and leave the rotation largely unaddressed. Veteran Chase Anderson was re-signed on a minor league deal, but he’s already been traded to the Rays after triggering an opt-out in his contract. Right-hander Ben Lively was re-signed to a minor league deal, and the Reds selected him to the roster today alongside fellow offseason journeyman pickup Kevin Herget.
It’s not clear whether the 31-year-old Lively and 32-year-old Herget are short-term stopgaps or will get an actual look on the roster in the coming weeks, but even before this afternoon’s slate of moves, the crux of this argument has been that the Reds have more interesting options than the veterans they’ve plugged into the fourth and fifth spots of the rotation thus far. The promotions of Lively and Herget don’t change that.
Lefty Brandon Williamson and right-hander Levi Stoudt both came to Cincinnati by way of trade with the Mariners, coming over in the Jesse Winker/Eugenio Suarez and Luis Castillo trades, respectively. Neither has dominated in Triple-A to begin the season, though Stoudt did make his MLB debut in a spot start last month. Williamson, currently sporting an ERA north of 7.00 in 28 1/3 Triple-A frames, has not yet pitched in the big leagues. It’s worth noting that nearly all the damage against him came in one start, where he did not escape the first inning against the Cubs’ top affiliate and was thrashed for eight runs. Stoudt needs to improve upon the poor command he’s shown in Louisville before getting a real look in the big leagues.
The Reds have one particular minor league powerhouse who looks on the cusp of MLB readiness, however: left-hander Andrew Abbott. The 2021 second-round pick has skyrocketed through the minor leagues, reaching Double-A last year as a 23-year-old in his first full professional season and then overpowering both Double-A and Triple-A opponents early in the 2023 season.
Abbott opened the current campaign with 15 2/3 innings in Double-A, allowing just two runs on six hits and three walks with an astonishing 36 strikeouts. That’s not a typo; Abbott fanned a comical 64.3% of his opponents in those three Double-A starts before the Reds rather naturally jumped him to Triple-A. He hasn’t continued on at that deity-like pace at the top minor league level … he’s “merely” posted a 3.00 ERA with a 38.7% strikeout rate in another 15 innings of work. All in all, Abbott has 30 2/3 innings of 2.05 ERA ball with an eye-popping 50.8% strikeout rate to go along with a 7.6% walk rate, 41.5% ground-ball rate and 0.88 HR/9 mark.
The 23-year-old Abbott’s most recent start just happened to fall on Sunday, which would line him up to be fully rested come Saturday, when the Reds’ listed starter is TBD. That had been Cessa’s spot in the rotation, but Cincinnati opted to start Ashcraft on four days’ rest instead of giving Cessa his usual turn. (Ashcraft was blasted for eight runs in 1 2/3 innings.) It’s always possible that they’ll look into alternatives for the time being, preferring to give Abbott more seasoning and hold off on adding him to the 40-man roster just yet. But each of Williamson (May 5), Stoudt (May 6) and Herget (May 4) saw their most recent starts fall on a date that would line them up to pitch between now and Saturday.
If the Reds are indeed going to tap into their farm to make a change, Abbott is not only the best option in terms of 2023 performance — he’s also the starter who’s likeliest to be on full rest and ready to make that start. Even if Cincinnati bypasses him in favor of Lively or Herget this coming weekend, he’s already made the clear case that he’s a better option for the big league rotation than either Weaver or Cessa. And assuming Williamson can continue to shake off the impact of that catastrophic outing against the Cubs’ Iowa club — he rebounded with a quality start in his next appearance — it might not be long before either he or Stoudt stakes a claim to the fifth spot.
Going with a youth-forward rotation obviously has its pitfalls, but the Reds’ lack of offseason activity on the starting pitching front — both in terms of established big league starters and even in terms of veteran depth on minor league deals — clearly set the stage for that to eventually be the case in 2023. It’s not hard to imagine the Reds rolling with five starters who have under two years of big league service by sometime next month, if not sooner. The next step in the process should come this weekend. It’s only six starts, but Abbott looks like one of the organization’s four best rotation options at this point. Today’s moves might have added some fresh arms in Lively and Herget, but plugging either into the rotation would only continue treading water as they were with Cessa.