Rosenthal On Nolasco, Rays, Upton, Jimenez
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports brought us another edition of Full Count today while sporting yet another fantastic bow tie. Here are some highlights..
- The Marlins could wind up trading Ricky Nolasco if they fail to get back to the .500 mark. The Rangers have shown interest in Nolasco since last winter and the Yankees could look to reunite him with manager Joe Girardi. If the Fish make such a deal, it won't be in one of their classic salary dumps, it will be instead for baseball reasons. They're looking to increase their payroll ahead of their move into a brand new stadium and they could be major players for free agents this winter.
- The Rays still could end up as sellers but right now they appear to be buyers as they were looking to get Francisco Rodriguez before the Brewers swooped in at the final hour. If Tampa Bay sells, it's doubtful that they'll move any of their starters but B.J. Upton is another story. In theory, the Nationals, Phillies, and Braves could all be potential destinations for the outfielder.
- The three teams with the best chance of meeting the Rockies' asking price for Ubaldo Jimenez are the Yankees, Tigers, and Reds. The concerns with Jimenez are that he's not back to his 2009/early 2010 form and that his velocity has dropped. One scout told Rosenthal that he's not back to his ace form yet but he's getting close.
- The first-place Pirates are after upgrades but they should also improve from within. They have a number of injured players returning such as Jose Tabata, Evan Meek, and Ross Ohlendorf. The Bucs continue to search for a bat but they're not terribly interested in the Cubs' Carlos Pena.
Trade Candidates Who Are Currently Playing Well
Players who have performed well this month are more likely to intrigue buyers for at least two reasons. First of all, strong performance is an indication of health. Secondly, MLB teams have diverted some scouting efforts from amateurs to the pros since this year’s draft concluded about a month ago.
As a result, it’s fair to say that players who have been performing well this past month are more likely to draw interest at the trade deadline than players with similar overall numbers who had hot starts then cooled off later in the season. Here’s a look at some players who have been performing particularly well over the course of the past 30 days:
- Michael Cuddyer – The Twins aren’t prepared to sell yet, but Cuddyer would be a candidate to go if they do decide 2011 isn’t their year. He has a .378/.458/.633 line this month.
- Melky Cabrera – Cabrera is under team control through 2012 as an arbitration eligible player, so Kansas City’s front office may decide to keep him around for another year. His .342/.374/.470 line this month would appeal to contenders, though.
- Mark Reynolds – The slugger has ten homers in the past 30 days after starting the season slowly. He earns $7.5MM in 2012 and has an $11MM option for 2013 ($500K buyout).
- J.J. Hardy – Like Reynolds, Hardy had a power surge this month. He hit seven homers and added a .269/.306/.600 line. The Orioles are negotiating an extension with the shortstop, so there’s a good chance he stays in Baltimore.
- Coco Crisp – Crisp has a respectable .298/.364/.426 line this month.
- Carlos Pena – Like Reynolds, Pena strikes out a ton and has a low batting average. But his hot streaks can carry teams and he hit ten homers with a .240/.306/.600 line this month. Tim Dierkes examined Pena as a trade candidate earlier today.
- Livan Hernandez – GM Mike Rizzo says the Nationals will be buyers and sellers this month. Presumably some rival clubs are hoping the dependable Hernandez is available this summer, since he has a 3.62 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 this month.
- Edwin Jackson – It’s not surprising that clubs are inquiring on Jackson given that he has posted a 4.05 ERA with 9.1 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 this month. And his 2.52 xFIP suggests he has pitched better than his ERA indicates.
- Ryan Dempster – Across town, Dempster could draw interest as well. The right-hander has a 2.59 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 this month.
- Carlos Villanueva – Though he may not be a trade candidate in the traditional sense, Villanueva’s success in the rotation has presumably drawn the attention of front offices around baseball. He has a 2.84 ERA with 5.4 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 this month.
- Hiroki Kuroda – Kuroda will require compensation to waive his no-trade clause, but he is already drawing interest. The right-hander has a 2.30 ERA with 5.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 this month.
- Aramis Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Hunter Pence have been playing well, but it seems unlikely that they'll be dealt this month. I’m ignoring relievers, since many relievers have worked ten innings or less this month and that’s a minute sample size.
Trade Candidate: Carlos Pena
First baseman Carlos Pena hit just .196/.325/.407 in 2010, and the Scott Boras client signed a one-year, $10MM deal with the Cubs last December in hopes of rebuilding value. Maybe it's due to switching leagues, but Pena's power has rebounded and now he might be the only 30 home run bat on the trade market.
Pena, 33, is hitting .225/.339/.461 with 19 home runs in 340 plate appearances for the Cubs this year. After a rough April he's produced a more robust .244/.354/.543 line. If you're a contender looking for big-time power, Pena and Mark Reynolds are probably the best bets. Both come with big strikeout totals, however. Carlos Beltran, Ryan Ludwick, and Josh Willingham are other power hitters who might be available this month.
With a $10MM salary, Pena earns more than Reynolds, Ludwick, or Willingham. But the Cubs were short on payroll space when they signed Pena, and authored a fairly unique one-year deal that deferred half of his salary until January of 2012. That means an acquiring team would owe Pena around $1.6MM for the remainder of the season if they acquire him at the deadline, but then would have to tack another $5MM for him onto their 2012 payroll. For a club lacking flexibility this might be a benefit; others could be reluctant to pay Pena after he's already signed with another team.
In terms of draft pick compensation, Pena projects as a Type B free agent. This might be a minimal factor for the Cubs or any team, as Pena is not a lock to receive an arbitration offer. And he may not be keen on a handshake agreement to turn down arbitration; he was not one of the Rays who agreed to such an arrangement last year.
Of the 16 current contenders, few are in need of first base help, which should reduce the demand for Pena. The eight AL contenders generally don't need designated hitters, so that route probably would not help Cubs GM Jim Hendry.
The Pirates and Diamondbacks strike me as two teams that would benefit from renting the Pena. The D'Backs would might prefer to turn to Brandon Allen or Paul Goldschmidt at first, leaving the Pirates as the lone suitor if they wish to improve upon Lyle Overbay. The Bucs make for an interesting match, as typically it's been the Cubs swiping useful players from them. I also like the fit because the Pirates could avoid giving up any useful young players for Pena, instead offering to relieve the Cubs of most of the slugger's remaining $6.6MM.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
NL Central Notes: Cardinals, Braun, Pena, Pirates
After losing five of their first seven games, the Cardinals went 14-5 to finish April with a two-game lead in the NL Central. As the Cards attempt to extend their current winning streak to five games this afternoon behind Jaime Garcia, here's a roundup of today's NL Central-related links:
- The ninth inning carousel in St. Louis has been the team's achilles heel so far, says Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Ryan Franklin is out as the closer and is in the final year of his contract, but GM John Mozeliak doesn't know who the Cardinals' closer of the future is yet. "This season will dictate if [Mitchell] Boggs or [Jason] Motte or [Eduardo] Sanchez is the answer," he said. "It's a little early to render that verdict."
- Farm director John Vuch tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that the Cardinals have placed an emphasis on acquiring power arms in recent years.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports digs into the specifics of Ryan Braun's long-term contract extension with the Brewers.
- Carlos Pena isn't the first big free agent bat to get off to a slow start for the Cubs, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Despite a poor April, Pena still believes he can be a "huge contributor" in Chicago.
- The promotion of former fourth overall pick Danny Moskos gives the Pirates two left-handed relievers, something that manager Clint Hurdle was hoping for heading into the season, according to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Orioles Rumors: Hardy, Matsui, Thome, Uehara
The O's are talking about a J.J. Hardy trade with the Twins. Here are some more Orioles updates from Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun…
- The team did not offer Carlos Pena or Paul Konerko contracts before the first basemen signed in Chicago, according to president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail.
- It's likely that the team's shortstop will be Hardy, Jason Bartlett, Brendan Ryan or Cesar Izturis, MacPhail said. The Padres appear to be close to a deal for Bartlett, which would limit the Orioles' options.
- MacPhail says the club has expressed interest in a number of DH types. Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui and Jim Thome are believed to be among the team's targets.
- The team, which selects fourth in tomorrow's Rule 5 draft, is considering a number of players.
- There are no updates on Kevin Gregg, but Zrebiec reported yesterday that the team has offered the former Blue Jays closer a two-year deal.
- Troy Renck of the Denver Post hears (on Twitter) that Nick Green could end up in Baltimore.
Cubs Sign Carlos Pena
Carlos Pena and the Cubs have officially agreed to terms on a one-year deal believed to be worth $10MM, half of which is deferred.
Pena, 33 next May, saw his average slip below the Mendoza Line in 2010, totaling a line of .196/.325/.407. While the average and strikeout rate (32.6%) are concerns, Pena still managed to hit 28 home runs. That he managed a .325 OBP with a sub-.200 average speaks well to his plate discipline (14.9 BB%), and his average was deflated by a career-low .222 BABIP. Pena was affected by plantar fasciitis during the season, from which he is now said to be recovered.
Earlier, it was believed that Pena and agent Scott Boras were looking for a two or three-year deal, which would have been unsurprising in what's shaping up to be a players' market. However, one-year "pillow contract" will allow Pena to rebuild stock in the National League and enter a first base class that could be weak beyond Prince Fielder, if the Red Sox and Cardinals hammer out their rumored extensions with Adrian Gonzalez and Albert Pujols, respectively. A strong 2011 will position Pena as the second-best first base option on the market. This year, he drew interest from the Orioles, Nationals, Mariners, Braves, and Blue Jays as well as the Cubs.
MLB.com's Carrie Muskat first wrote that the deal was close, then later added the numbers via Twitter. Jon Heyman broke the news (via Twitter) that the two had agreed to terms.
Cubs Targeting LaRoche, Pena
11:28pm: The Cubs met with Carlos Pena's agent, Scott Boras, again tonight, according to MLB.com's Carrie Muskat (on Twitter). Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago reports that Boras is looking for a two or three-year deal.
2:06pm: The Cubs are targeting first baseman Adam LaRoche and would like to close a deal soon, reports CBS Sports' Scott Miller. The Nationals are known to be in on LaRoche as well. The 31-year-old hit .261/.320/.468 with 25 home runs in 615 plate appearances for the Diamondbacks this year, earning $6MM. His walk rate slipped while his strikeout rate rose.
Both clubs have also been linked to Carlos Pena; Cubs GM Jim Hendry met with Scott Boras on that front but did not exchange dollar figures, tweets MLB.com's Carrie Muskat.
Odds & Ends: Yankees, Giants, Astros, Marlins
Some late night links after a busy day for the Diamondbacks…
- Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News has some quotes from Yankees GM Brian Cashman, including praise for Boston's Adrian Gonzalez acquisition and an explanation that Dustin Moseley was non-tendered because he was looking for something greater than what New York had offered, and New York didn't want to go to arbitration.
- Giants GM Brian Sabean acknowledged that the team's payroll could jump from around $100MM in 2010 to as high as $120MM in 2011, according to Carl Steward of the San Jose Mercury News.
- Astros GM Ed Wade told MLB.com's Brian McTaggart that rival clubs have asked about Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn (Twitter link).
- The Cubs will meet with Scott Boras to discuss his clients, including Carlos Pena, according to MLB.com's Carrie Muskat (on Twitter). The Cubs are known to have interest in the powerful first baseman.
- The Marlins are discussing free agents Joe Beimel and J.C. Romero as they look to add left-handed relievers to their bullpen, according to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. Ron Mahay could be another possibility for the Marlins, who have about $1.5MM to spend on a reliever. Florida will have some competition for Mahay's services, as the Red Sox are also interested.
Cubs Close To One-Year Deal With Pena
This post was originally published on Dec. 8, 2010.
The Cubs are closing in on a one-year deal with Carlos Pena, writes MLB.com's Carrie Muskat. She adds, via Twitter, that the deal is believed to be for $10MM.
Pena, 33 next May, saw his average slip below the Mendoza Line in 2010, totaling a line of .196/.325/.407. While the average and strikeout rate (32.6%) are concerns, Pena still managed to hit 28 home runs. That he managed a .325 OBP with a sub-.200 average speaks well to his plate discipline (14.9 BB%), and his average was unquestionably deflated by a career-low .222 BABIP.
Earlier, it was believed that Pena and agent Scott Boras were looking for a two- or three-year deal, which would be unsurprising in what's shaping up to be a players' market.
Blue Jays, O’s Interested In Pena, Wigginton
5:30pm: The Blue Jays have checked in on Ty Wigginton, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter). The Orioles maintain interest in the infielder, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.
4:24pm: The Orioles still have interest in Pena, though his asking price is currently too high, according to MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli (on Twitter).
2:02pm: The Blue Jays are "in hard" for free agent first baseman Carlos Pena, ESPN's Gordon Edes heard from another club with interest (Twitter link). The Cubs and Nationals are also known to be eyeing the Scott Boras client. Like recently-traded slugger Mark Reynolds, Pena slipped below the Mendoza line this year but isn't far removed from 40 home run power.