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Clarke Schmidt

Latest On Yankees’ Rotation Plans

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The Yankees plan to activate Clarke Schmidt from the 60-day injured list to start against the Cubs on Saturday, tweets Chris Kirschner of the Athletic. The right-hander has made three minor league rehab appearances, reaching 4 2/3 innings on 70 pitches in Double-A yesterday.

Schmidt has been out since late May due to a lat strain. That interrupted what looked like a breakout showing for the former first-round pick. Schmidt worked to a 2.52 earned run average while striking out more than 27% of batters faced through 60 2/3 innings. It had started to represent a major step forward from his 2023 work. Schmidt had stayed healthy enough to log 159 frames over 33 appearances last year, though he did so with a pedestrian 4.64 ERA and an average 21.5% strikeout percentage.

Through the season’s first couple months, the Yankees had perhaps the best rotation in the American League. They haven’t maintained that level. Going back to the May 27 retroactive date of Schmidt’s IL placement, New York’s starters rank 24th with a 4.74 earned run average. Of their six starters with 20+ innings in that time, only Gerrit Cole has allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine.

Cole’s 3.65 ERA is itself a disappointment for a defending Cy Young winner. Luis Gil has been inconsistent. Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman each have an ERA in the high 4.00s over the past few months. Carlos Rodón had a terrible June, though he has been more effective in recent weeks (and had a dominant 11-strikeout performance tonight).

Schmidt’s return could eventually push one of the veterans from the rotation. Cortes is the likeliest candidate to be squeezed out. Skipper Aaron Boone said on Tuesday that the left-hander will pitch in relief behind either Gil or Schmidt in Chicago (link via Greg Joyce of the New York Post). That’s not officially a demotion, as Cortes will draw back into the rotation next week. New York is off on Thursday but begins a stretch of 10 consecutive game days with the Cubs series. They’ll go to a six-man rotation to get through that run before making a decision on whether to push someone to relief for the rest of the season.

The upcoming relief appearance will be Cortes’ first in three years. He established himself in the rotation with an All-Star showing in 2022. The southpaw struggled through injury last season. Cortes has been healthy this season, tossing 159 innings while tying for the AL lead with 28 starts. His overall production — a 4.08 ERA, 22.1% strikeout percentage and 4.9% walk rate — is solid, but he has a 5.17 ERA in 10 appearances since the start of July. New York considered moving Cortes at the deadline but elected to hold him after moving away from their discussions with the Tigers on Jack Flaherty (reportedly because of an unspecified issue with Flaherty’s medicals).

AL East Notes: Orioles, Casas, Story, Schmidt

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Orioles general manager Mike Elias spoke to reporters (including Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports) ahead of today’s game against the Rays, offering updates on several injured players. First and foremost, he expressed optimism regarding starter Grayson Rodriguez, who landed on the 15-day IL last week. Elias described Rodriguez’s right lat/teres injury as “pretty mild” – much less serious than the similar injury he suffered in 2022 – and said the team is hoping to have him back in the rotation by late September. The young right-hander has a 3.86 ERA across 20 starts this season, and Elias made it clear that the Orioles are still hopeful he will play an “enormous” role for the team come October.

Discussing his club’s minor league rotation depth while Rodriguez is out, Elias named Cade Povich, Cole Irvin, and, interestingly, Brandon Young of Triple-A Norfolk. Povich, 24, is a top prospect and has a spot on the 40-man roster, while Irvin, 30, has six seasons of MLB experience. Young, 25, doesn’t have Povich’s prospect pedigree or Irvin’s big league resume, but he is enjoying a strong season; he has a 3.82 ERA and 2.92 FIP across 20 games between Double-A and Triple-A. Barring another injury, the Orioles rotation is set with Corbin Burnes, Zach Eflin, Trevor Rogers, Dean Kremer, and Albert Suarez. Still, Young is a name worth keeping an eye on.

Elias also provided some good news about several Orioles relievers. Jacob Webb hit the IL last week with inflammation in his right elbow, but tests revealed no structural damage. The club is hopeful his IL stint will be a short one, perhaps no longer than the minimum 15 days. Webb has pitched well for Baltimore since joining the club last August. In 71 2/3 innings, the 30-year-old has a 3.14 ERA and 3.98 SIERA as a middle relief option for manager Brandon Hyde. The Orioles are also planning to have Danny Coulombe back in late September. Coulombe, who has a 2.68 ERA over the past two seasons, has been out since June, when he had surgery to remove bone chips in his left elbow. Finally, Elias touched on Félix Bautista’s rehab, explaining that things are “going really well” for the star closer as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. He will not pitch for Baltimore this year, in the regular season or the playoffs, but he is set to throw off a proper mound next week as he prepares himself for a full and healthy 2025 campaign.

On the position player side of things, Elias noted that there is “still time” for Jordan Westburg to get back on the field before the end of the regular season. The All-Star infielder has been out since he fractured his right hand on July 31. He has 18 home runs, an .815 OPS, and 2.8 FanGraphs WAR over 101 games this year. Elias also expressed hope that Heston Kjerstad won’t be out for “too much longer” as he continues to recover from a concussion. The GM acknowledged that it’s “pretty mild” as far as concussions go, but the team is still taking his symptoms “really seriously” and will not bring him back until they make sure he is “totally out of the woods.” The Orioles had previously optioned Kjerstad back to Triple-A, but placing him back on the injured list reverses the option.

In additional injury news from around the AL East…

  • Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas is reportedly “close to returning” from his rib cage injury, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive. He is currently on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Worcester, and Cotillo suggests Casas could be back in the majors as soon as Thursday. Boston will need to activate him once he maxes out his minor league rehab time on August 18, but it appears the slugger could be back in the lineup a few days sooner. Casas hit six home runs over his first 22 games this season before suffering his injury, and his big lefty bat will undoubtedly be a huge boost to the Red Sox’s lineup.
  • Meanwhile, Trevor Story is about to take what manager Alex Cora describes as a “huge step” toward returning this season, according to Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic. The shortstop, who has been out since April after undergoing shoulder surgery, will take batting practice on Monday. His surgery seemed to be season-ending back in April, but Cora now believes the two-time All-Star will be back with the Red Sox before the end of the year. Story himself suggested that his return has gone from “a maybe” to “a reality.” He is already ready to return defensively, and he is making excellent progress swinging the bat. He says his swings have felt “really good” with “no hesitation or hold back.”
  • Finally, Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt told reporters (including Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post) that it is “very realistic” to expect he will return to the club before the end of August. The right-hander has been out since May with a right lat strain. Over his first 11 starts, Schmidt pitched to a sparkling 2.52 ERA and 3.64 SIERA. Meanwhile, since his last appearance, Yankees starters rank second-last in the AL with a 5.22 ERA. Their problems go far beyond Schmidt’s injury, but it will surely help to have him back in the fold. It’s not clear how manager Aaron Boone will arrange his rotation once Schmidt returns, but Boone was reportedly “thrilled” with Schmidt’s performance in a live batting practice session earlier today (per Joel Sherman of the New York Post). There will be a job for Schmidt when he’s ready, even if he has to push a more established arm – like Marcus Stroman or Nestor Cortes – out of the rotation.

Yankees Place Ian Hamilton, Cody Poteet On Injured List

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The Yankees announced a series of roster moves today. First baseman Anthony Rizzo was placed on the 10-day injured list with a right forearm fracture, an injury that was reported yesterday. They also placed right-handers Ian Hamilton and Cody Poteet on the 15-day injured list. Hamilton’s move is due to a right lat strain and retroactive to June 17. Poteet’s is due to a right triceps strain and retroactive to June 15. In corresponding moves, they recalled left-hander Clayton Andrews and also selected the contracts of left-hander Anthony Misiewicz and catcher/infielder Ben Rice. The moves for Misiewicz and Rice were previously covered on MLBTR.

In terms of the 40-man roster, the Yankees had one vacancy for Misiewicz/Rice but opened another by transferring righty Clarke Schmidt to the 60-day injured list. The 40-man is now full but the club is planning to reinstate righty Gerrit Cole from the 60-day IL tomorrow and will need to open a spot for him.

Poteet was recalled a few weeks ago to take a rotation spot when Schmidt landed on the injured list. Poteet has made four good starts since then, currently sitting on a 2.14 earned run average for the year. Despite that strong work, he was likely going to be optioned back to the minors to make way for Cole, since each of Luis Gil, Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman have been in good form this year.

But instead of going back down to the minors, Poteet is now on the IL. He won’t throw at all for the next week or two, per Chris Kirschner of The Athletic on X, before taking things from there. The Yanks have the strongest rotation in the league this year, even before accounting for Cole’s return, as their collective 2.90 ERA leads the majors at the moment. But having both Schmidt and Poteet on the IL at the same time leaves their depth a bit thinned out.

Clayton Beeter is on the 40-man roster but seems to be injured as well, since he hasn’t pitched at Triple-A since May 15. Yoendrys Gómez is also on the roster and has a 3.13 ERA in Triple-A, but is working around a high walk rate of 13.9%. If they suffer another rotation injury, that depth situation could be a factor, though perhaps Schmidt and/or Poteet can return to health before it becomes an issue.

As for Hamilton, his injury seems to be even more significant as he won’t throw for three to four weeks, per Kirschner on X. He’ll likely have to build back up after such an absence so he might end up missing a couple of months, depending on how things develop in the interim.

The righty emerged as a key piece of the Yankee bullpen last year, tossing 58 innings with a 2.64 ERA. His 10.9% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he struck out 28.9% of batters faced while getting grounders on 55.3% of balls in play.

His ERA has jumped to 4.55 this year but perhaps the injury has played a role in that. He had a 2.81 ERA after his June 6 appearance but has allowed seven earned runs in four innings since then. If the lat issue started bugging him in that time, perhaps that explains the recent struggles. In his absence, pitchers like Luke Weaver, Tommy Kahnle, Caleb Ferguson and Michael Tonkin will help set up closer Clay Holmes. Most contending clubs look for bullpen additions prior to the trade deadline and the Yankees will surely be in the market since they currently have the best record in baseball.

As for Schmidt, he was placed on the injured list May 27 with a right lat strain and will now be ineligible to be reinstated until 60 days from that initial IL placement, which would be July 26. Shortly after he was placed on the IL, the Yanks announced that he would be shut down for four to six weeks. Even if he starts throwing in early July, he’ll surely need a few weeks of rehab to build back up to a starter’s workload.

Yankees Shut Down Clarke Schmidt For 4-6 Weeks

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The Yankees are shutting down starter Clarke Schmidt for 4-6 weeks. Manager Aaron Boone announced the news to the New York beat before tonight’s game with the Angels (X link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Schmidt underwent an MRI yesterday and landed on the 15-day injured list with a lat strain this afternoon.

Schmidt’s absence will extend well beyond the minimum. He’s almost certainly out through the All-Star Break at this point. There’s a good chance he doesn’t return until after the trade deadline. Even in the best case scenario where Schmidt is able to begin a throwing program in the first half of July, he’ll need multiple weeks to return to MLB readiness. He’ll go through bullpen sessions and live batting practice before heading on a minor league rehab stint that’ll likely require at least two or three starts.

It halts what had been an excellent start to the season for the South Carolina product. Schmidt has a 2.52 ERA over 11 starts, punching out more than 27% of opposing hitters. He had performed at a back-of-the-rotation level in 2023, when he allowed 4.64 earned runs per nine over 33 appearances. Schmidt was building a reasonable All-Star case, a major reason why the Yankees have an AL-best 38-19 record.

[Related: The New and Improved Clarke Schmidt]

New York’s rotation has been stellar despite losing Gerrit Cole to elbow inflammation in Spring Training. Only the Phillies have a better ERA from their starting staff than the Yankees’ 2.69 mark. New York starters also trail just Philadelphia in strikeout rate and are behind the Phils, Mariners and Royals in innings.

That’s a remarkable couple months for a team operating without the defending AL Cy Young winner. They have had essentially perfect health following Cole’s injury. Nestor Cortes, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil and Schmidt have taken all but one start. The Yankees will face some rotation uncertainty for the first time since March.

Cody Poteet took the lone other start, working six innings of one-run ball against the Guardians as part of a doubleheader on April 13. Poteet is the first choice to step into Schmidt’s rotation spot; Boone announced that the right-hander will take the ball in San Francisco on Saturday. While Poteet has been on the minor league injured list for a week because of a blister, he’s expected to be ready two days from now.

The Yankees signed Poteet to a split contract in January. The 29-year-old righty turned in decent numbers in 58 2/3 innings for the Marlins between 2021-22. He underwent Tommy John surgery in August ’22, leading Miami to cut him loose. That the Yankees gave him a 40-man roster spot was a surprise, but he’s thus far rewarded their faith with an impressive two months in Triple-A. Over seven starts for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, he has a 4.05 ERA with a 28.1% strikeout percentage and a solid 8.1% walk rate.

Poteet may only need to hold a starting spot for a couple weeks. Cole has been throwing for more than a month and is closing in on a rehab assignment. Boone said that the six-time All-Star could head out on a minor league stint as soon as next week (relayed on X by Chris Kirschner of the Athletic). He’ll need to make multiple starts but could be back at Yankee Stadium by the latter half of June.

Schmidt’s injury doesn’t immediately look as if it’ll impact the Yankees’ approach to the deadline. By late July, New York could have a rotation of Cole, Rodón, Stroman, Cortes and Gil with a Schmidt return on the horizon. That’d be one of the strongest units in the majors. Any more injuries would test the depth, though, particularly with Gil’s 63 1/3 innings already well beyond his combined workload of 2022-23 because of May ’22 Tommy John surgery.

Yankees Place Clarke Schmidt On Injured List

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The Yankees announced today that right-hander Clarke Schmidt has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to May 27, with a right lat strain. Right-hander Cody Morris has been recalled in a corresponding move.

At this point, the full details of the injury aren’t clear. Schmidt started for the Yankees in San Diego on Sunday and all seemed fairly normal, as he tossed 101 pitches over five innings. It seems that Schmidt either felt sore after that start or perhaps aggravated something during a bullpen session. The club will likely provide more details about the issue and his expected absence in due time.

Regardless of how long Schmidt is out of action, this will interrupt what was shaping up to be a brilliant breakout season, something that MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a detailed look at. Thanks to some adjustments to his pitch mix, Schmidt has been able to have far better results this year than in the past.

Last year, he made 33 appearances for the Yanks, 32 of those being starts. He tossed 159 innings, allowing 4.64 earned runs per nine. He struck out 21.5% of batters faced while giving out walks at a 6.6% rate. Here in 2024, he’s thrown 60 2/3 innings over 11 starts with a 2.52 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate.

That tremendous improvement has been huge for the Yankees, as they have been without their ace Gerrit Cole all year so far. Cole has been battling elbow inflammation since the spring but the rest of the rotation has stepped up in his absence. In addition to Schmidt’s strong work, each of Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman have bounced back from injury-marred seasons in 2023. None of that trio has an ERA higher than 3.30 this season. Luis Gil, who hardly pitched in the past two years due to Tommy John surgery, has a 1.99 ERA so far.

That the Cole-less rotation has been so strong is a big reason why the Yankees are 38-19, the best record in the American League. Now they will have to reach beyond that starting group for essentially the first time this year. Cody Poteet started the second game of a doubleheader on April 13, but apart from that, every Yankee game this year has been started by the fivesome of Schmidt, Rodón, Cortes, Stroman and Gil.

Cole has yet to begin a rehab assignment and is therefore still weeks away. JT Brubaker, recovering from Tommy John surgery, hasn’t yet begun a rehab assignment either. Luke Weaver has plenty of starting experience but has been in a leverage role this year, earning seven holds, including five this month. Poteet and Clayton Beeter are on the minor league injured list. Yoendrys Gómez was just optioned three days ago and can’t be recalled for a 15-day period unless directly replacing an injured player. Will Warren is one of the club’s best pitching prospects but he has an ERA of 8.53 in Triple-A this year and isn’t yet on the 40-man roster.

How the Yanks play things will remain to be seen. They have an off-day on Monday and could perhaps do some kind of bullpen day on Saturday, when Schmidt was scheduled to start, before coming up with a better long-term solution next week.

The New And Improved Clarke Schmidt

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A lot has gone right for the Yankees in 2024. Even without the services of reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole through the season’s 30% mark, they find themselves atop the American League East by a measure of two games over the second-place Orioles. The Rays, eight games back, are a distant third. Boston and Toronto follow with deficits of 8.5 games and 10.5 games, respectively.

Beyond Cole’s absence, the Yanks dealt with a prolonged slump for 2022 MVP Aaron Judge and have yet to get so much as a single at-bat from DJ LeMahieu due to a fractured foot suffered in spring training. Setup man Jonathan Loaisiga pitched only four innings before requiring internal brace surgery. On the flip side, Juan Soto has lived up to the billing as a middle-of-the-order force. Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes both look like the pitchers the Yankees expected them to be in 2023. Marcus Stroman has handled himself well, albeit with an uncharacteristic uptick in walks.

For all the big names turning in marquee and/or rebound performances, the Yankees have also seen substantial improvement from a key in-house arm. Righty Clarke Schmidt was a top prospect long before he made his MLB debut, and he made 29 serviceable starts last season, so it’s not as though he wasn’t expected to contribute at all this year. But heading into the season, Schmidt looked like a clear back-of-the-rotation arm.

About one-third of the way through the 2024 season, that’s no longer the case. Schmidt still looks the part of a big league starter, but he’s taken considerable steps forward and now looks like far more than a garden variety innings eater. Schmidt has upped his velocity by a bit more than a mile per hour on both his cutter (up from 91.5 mph to 92.6 mph) and sinker (93.6 mph in 2023, 94.7 mph in 2024). Schmidt is also taking a page from the Corbin Burnes playbook, throwing more cutters than at any point in his career, and doing so at the expense of his sweeper and sinker. It’s not an overwhelming change in pitch selection, but Schmidt has gone from throwing that cutter around 28% of the time to 35.5% of the time in 2024.

The biggest change for Schmidt, however, isn’t necessarily one of pitch usage but rather of pitch effectiveness. Opponents in 2023 teed off on his sweeper, blasting the pitch at a .276/.331/.559 pace when putting it into play. Opponents basically became 2023-24 Gunnar Henderson when putting Schmidt’s sweeper into play. That’s … not good. (Well, not good for Schmidt.)

In 2024, Schmidt has actually taken a bit of life off that breaking ball. Coupled with the uptick in cutter/sinker velocity, the gap between those harder pitches and his primary breaking ball has widened by around two miles per hour. Last year saw a 5.3 mph gap between his cutter and sweeper, and a 7.4 mph gap between the sinker and sweeper. This year, those differentials are up to respective marks of 6.9 mph and 9.0 mph. Additionally, by measure of Statcast, Schmidt’s sweeper is also generating an extra 3.3 inches of horizontal break over last year’s version of the pitch.

The tweaks are subtle but the changes in Schmidt’s results aren’t. Through his first 10 starts of the season, the right-hander touts a 2.59 ERA (3.54 FIP, 3.38 SIERA). His strikeout rate is up from 21.5% to a career-best 27.2%. His walk rate has worsened, but only slightly, and at 7.6%, it’s still a percentage point better than the league average. Schmidt is generating more swinging strikes (10.2% in 2023, 12.2% in 2024), getting more called strikes and has seen his opponents’ contact rates drop both in the zone and off the plate. A hearty 41% of batted balls against Schmidt last year traveled 95 mph or more, but this year that rate is down to 34.8%. His opponents’ average exit velocity is down roughly one mile per hour. He’s allowing less contact, and the balls that are put into play against him are generally more timid in nature.

Schmidt’s step forward is well-timed for the Yankees on multiple fronts. Not only does it dovetail with a time when rotation depth is paramount for the Yankees as they await Cole’s return, it also comes when Schmidt is still controllable for a considerable period of time. Schmidt is 28 and already into arbitration, earning $2.184MM this season, but he’s a Super Two player who was only first-time eligible this past offseason. The Yankees control him for three more seasons.

While Schmidt’s arb price will rise considerably if he can sustain even 80% of the gains he’s made this season, he’ll still be priced well below market levels at a time when the Yankees are in the final years of some relatively heavy veteran contracts. Stroman ($18.5MM next season, plus an $18MM vesting option for 2026), Anthony Rizzo ($17MM club option), LeMahieu ($15MM in 2025 and 2026), will all still be on the books in the short-term, when Schmidt’s price tag is particularly affordable. Given the Yankees’ long-term commitments to Cole, Judge, Rodon and Giancarlo Stanton — plus their obvious hope of re-signing Soto — having low-cost contributors like Schmidt play key roles is of even greater importance.

Speaking of Soto, his very presence on the roster made it crucial that Schmidt and other in-house arms step up in 2024. The Yankees parted with notable pitching depth to acquire Soto from San Diego, sending Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez and top prospect Drew Thorpe to the Padres in that package. King would’ve been locked into a rotation spot in the Bronx, and each of Brito, Vasquez and Thorpe were depth options for this year’s rotation. You could argue it’s a quantity-over-quality group, but the Soto trade left the Yankees with much less depth to rely on in the event of injuries. A step back from Schmidt would’ve been magnified even further with Cole on the shelf.

Instead, Schmidt has taken significant steps forward — thanks to changes that make much of his improvement feel sustainable. He’s not likely to keep running a sub-3.00 ERA, but Schmidt looks far more like a mid-3.00s type of pitcher than the 2023 version of himself that appeared ticketed for a mid-4.00s mark.

Yankees Notes: Hernández, Snell, Schmidt

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Utility player Enrique Hernández signed with the Dodgers earlier this week after having reported interest from clubs such as the Giants, Angels, Twins, and Padres. Hernández spoke to Foul Territory about his free agency (video link via X), adding that the Tigers were also interested but that it came down to the Dodgers and Yankees at the end.

The interest from the Tigers was not previously reported, but it seems fair to assume it came before they signed another utility infielder, Gio Urshela. That the Yankees were at the table is not something that was previously reported and would seem to suggest they are open to adding another utility player to their roster.

There are a few different ways Hernández could have been useful off the bench for the Yankees. The club is set to have veterans DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo at the infield corners, both of whom are now in the mid-30s and struggled with injuries last year. He could have given them some extra cover at those spots while also perhaps getting into the outfield mix in a platoon capacity, pairing with lefty Alex Verdugo.

Hernández hits from the right side and has a career slash of .257/.343/.458 against southpaws, good enough for a 115 wRC+, compared to a line of .228/.290/.377 and 80 wRC+ against righties. Verdugo’s career splits are .290/.346/.461 and 115 wRC+ against righties but .259/.315/.350 and 80 wRC+ versus lefties. Left-hander Trent Grisham is also in the mix but he has reverse splits.

The Yankees project to have a bench of Jose Trevino, Oswaldo Cabrera and Grisham in three spots. That leaves one spot open, which could go to Oswald Peraza, but he has an option and is probably better served getting regular reps in the minors as opposed to sitting on the big league bench.

The club’s interest in Hernández suggests they could sign a veteran to plug into their bench, though there aren’t many proven infield/outfield types unsigned. Donovan Solano hasn’t played the outfield since 2012 while guys like Elvis Andrus or Jonathan Schoop never have. Free agent outfielders like Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall or Michael A. Taylor can’t help on the infield. The Yanks just claimed Jahmai Jones off waivers, who has experience on the dirt and the grass and is out of options, so perhaps they will just turn to him or some other claimee to fill out their bench.

Elsewhere in Yankee tidbits, the club continues to be tied to Blake Snell as the lefty lingers on the market. Recent reporting has suggested Snell may follow Cody Bellinger in pivoting to a short-term deal with opt-outs and high average annual values, though this wouldn’t work well for a club like the Yankees. They are already over the fourth and final tier of the competitive balance tax and face a 110% tax on any additional spending. RosterResource puts their CBT number at $307MM, already $10MM over the $297MM top line.

Hypothetically, if Snell wanted the same $30MM salary as Bellinger this year, the Yankees would also have to pay $33MM in taxes to give it to him. Snell also rejected a qualifying offer, so the Yankees would have to surrender their second- and fifth-highest picks in the upcoming draft and $1MM of international bonus pool space to sign him. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic looked at the situation today and reported that it remains unlikely the two sides will get something done for those exact reasons.

As long as the Yankees don’t sign Snell or any other pitcher, then Clarke Schmidt projects as the number five behind Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman and Nestor Cortes. Kuty spoke to manager Aaron Boone about Schmidt, with the skipper highlighting the strong finish to his season. “He never lost confidence,” Boone said. “He never lost focus. Then he put together a really strong 4 1/2 or five months — after Gerrit, he was the guy we could kind of hang our hat on. Hopefully there’s another step in that.”

In his ninth start of the season, Schmidt allowed seven earned runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Rays and had a 6.30 earned run average at that point. But he put up a 4.08 ERA the rest of the way, allowing him to finish at 4.64 for the season overall. The Yanks will be hoping the 28-year-old can take another step forward here in 2024, as they traded away much of their rotation depth in the deal that brought over Grisham and Juan Soto.

Yankees, Padres Nearing Juan Soto Deal

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5:39pm: The Padres continue to evaluate the medical records of the players involved, tweets Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.

3:10pm: Curry reported on air that King, Thorpe, Brito, Vasquez and catcher Kyle Higashioka are all likely to be included in the trade (video link). The deal still isn’t quite across the finish line but could be wrapped up this afternoon.

2:42pm: The two sides are still sorting out minor details and reviewing medical information, but Heyman tweets that a deal is expected to be finalized sooner than later. Soto and Grisham are both expected to go to the Yankees.

1:47pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that even after the Yankees’ acquisition of Verdugo, Grisham is still involved in the current iteration of talks between New York and San Diego. He’d be used as a fourth outfielder and late-inning defensive upgrade. His projected $4.9MM salary is a bit steep for that role, particularly when factoring in the associated luxury tax implications, but the Yankees don’t seem too concerned with club payroll at present.

11:20am: The package for Soto is expected to include King and Thorpe, as well as “at least two” other players, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, who adds that a deal is indeed close to being finalized.

8:42am: Talks between the Yankees and Padres regarding star outfielder Juan Soto have continued throughout the night, it seems, and the Yankees have “intensified” their efforts to pry Soto away from San Diego, Jack Curry of the YES Network reports. Curry calls a trade “likely,” noting that pitchers Michael King and Drew Thorpe could both be in play. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that in addition to Thorpe and King, each of Clarke Schmidt, Chase Hampton, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez have all been discussed. Certainly, the Yankees won’t be sending that whole slate of arms, but there’d likely be more to the package than Thorpe and King alone.

A trade sending Soto to the Bronx has been viewed as a possibility for much of the offseason, given the superstar slugger’s projected $33MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), the Padres’ reported need to scale back payroll (while still adding to a perilously thin rotation mix) and the Yankees’ desire for aggressive and broad-reaching changes on the heels of a disappointing season. Prior reporting on the talks between the two parties have been hung up on the Padres insisting on the inclusion of MLB rotation pieces, most notably including King. That Curry mentions King and Thorpe as possibilities to be included in this deal seems to represent an acquiescence of sorts from the Yanks.

If a deal is indeed completed, Soto would be the second outfielder acquired by the Yankees in as many days. New York pulled of an extraordinarily rare swap of note with their archrivals in Boston last night, landing fellow corner outfielder Alex Verdugo from the Red Sox in exchange for a three-player package. Soto and Verdugo would join Aaron Judge in the outfield, resulting in a major overhaul of a group that was a weak point in the Bronx throughout the 2023 season.

Even with Judge in the fold, Yankees outfielders combined for a dreadful .220/.293/.399 batting line last season. The resulting 90 wRC+ suggests that Yankees outfielders were about 10% below average at the plate even with the 2022 AL MVP’s production included. Subtracting Judge from the equation, Yankees outfielders combined to post a catastrophic .214/.247/.365 batting line on the season.

A Verdugo-Judge-Soto outfield would be far more productive and also substantially reduce the Yankees’ strikeout woes; Verdugo fanned at just a 15.4% rate in 2023, while Soto wasn’t much higher at 18.2%. Both Soto and Verdugo are one-year solutions in the outfield, as both are set to become free agents following the 2024 campaign.

Presumably, the Yankees would deploy Judge in center field regularly for the upcoming season, with Verdugo in left field and Soto in right. The Padres and Yankees had previously discussed including San Diego center fielder Trent Grisham in a Soto package, but Heyman tweets that following the acquisition of Verdugo, Grisham is no longer likely to be a part of talks with the Friars. While manager Aaron Boone can’t formally comment on any potential acquisition of Soto, he did acknowledge to The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty and other reporters just now that the Yankees would be comfortable with Judge playing center field every day this coming season.

Roster Resource already projects the Yankees for a payroll north of $245MM and more than $256MM worth of luxury tax obligations. Soto would push those numbers to around $278MM and $289MM, respectively. The Yankees are already effectively at the second luxury-tax threshold, meaning the penalties they face for incorporating Soto’s salary into the fold will be steeper. As a team paying the luxury tax for a third straight season, they’d pay a 62% tax for exceeding by $20-40MM and a hefty 95% surcharge on the next $20MM spent. With regard to Soto, that’d equate to about $24.5MM of penalties on top of his projected $33MM salary.

Of course, further changes could impact that payroll and roster outlook. The Yankees have been prominently linked to star NPB right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto and are viewed as one of the favorites to land him. Even failing that, the Yankees could need to look for outside help in the rotation — particularly if King and/or Schmidt is indeed part of the swap that ultimately nets them Soto. Adding Soto and making a subsequent addition of any real note to the rotation (barring the acquisition of a pre-arbitration arm to plug into the mix) would push the Yankees into the newly created fourth tier of luxury penalization — often referred to as the “Steve Cohen tax” in reference to the crosstown owner of the Mets.

Latest On Juan Soto

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Recent reporting on the trade talks between the Padres and Yankees regarding superstar outfielder Juan Soto have indicated that the sides have hit an impasse in their trade discussions. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported this morning that the sides haven’t talked since San Diego requested the previously-reported multi-player package centered round right-handers Drew Thorpe and Michael King, though The Athletic’s Brandon Kuty suggests that discussions between the sides are expected to reignite during the Winter Meetings this week.

Kuty goes on to discuss the current state of discussions between the sides, with a few noteworthy updates to past reporting. While San Diego’s proposal was previously believed to be a six- or seven-player package centered around King and Thorpe plus salary relief in exchange for Soto and Trent Grisham, Kuty suggests that the Padres proposed an eight-for-two swap with right-handers Clarke Schmidt, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vasquez all included in addition to King and Thorpe. The other three players in San Diego’s proposal are not known, though Kuty suggests that top prospects Oswald Peraza and Everson Pereira both are “figured to be on the table” in discussions.

The mention of Pereira as a potential piece in a Soto is especially noteworthy as past reporting has indicated that the 22-year-old has not been part of discussions between the sides. The young outfielder has emerged as a consensus top-100 prospect in the sport after slashing .300/.373/.548 in 81 games split between Double-A and Triple-A this season, though he struggled in a 27-game cup of coffee with an anemic .151/.233/.194 slash line in 103 big league plate appearances down the stretch. The inclusion of Pereira as a big-league ready outfield option could make plenty of sense for San Diego, particularly if the club parts with both Soto and Grisham in a deal.

While the specifics of reports on the Padres’ requested return package have conflicted, it’s clear that San Diego is hoping to receive a hefty return with a focus on MLB-ready pitching. What’s more, there’s a clear consensus between reports that the Yankees are particularly hesitant to include King and Thorpe in a package for Soto. Despite the gap between the sides in trade discussions, Kuty notes that restarting talks makes plenty of sense for both sides. The impetus behind a Soto deal for San Diego is the club’s desire to cut payroll, and Soto’s projected $33MM salary (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) limits the number of teams that could realistically fit a deal for Soto into their budget. Meanwhile, Kuty notes that the Yankees are facing considerable pressure to improve after missing the playoffs with an 82-80 2023 campaign.

While Kuty notes that Cody Bellinger is another star-caliber lefty outfielder who the Yankees have interest in, no outfield addition is appealing to the club as Soto. Likewise, Kuty suggests that the Blue Jays represent a potential suitor for Soto if the Padres can’t get a deal done with New York. It’s a suggestion further backed up by SNY’s Andy Martino, who describes Toronto as a “real contender” for Soto, with Heyman adding that right-hander Alek Manoah has come up in discussions between San Diego and Toronto. That said, Martino suggests that the Jays are believed to prefer to wait on a Soto deal until they know whether or not they’ll be successful in their bid for superstar slugger Shohei Ohtani.

Kuty suggests that waiting for Ohtani to make a decision could be a double-edged sword for the Padres. While another superstar-caliber left-handed slugger coming off the board could raise the pressure on interested clubs to acquire Soto, the Padres are likely to attempt to use the savings from a Soto deal to explore the free agent starting pitching market, and waiting to move Soto could leave San Diego with less options on that front. While the free agent market has largely moved slowly to this point in the offseason, the top end of the rotation market has been something of an exception to that rule with Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray having already signed on in Philadelphia and St. Louis, respectively.

Yankees, Padres Reportedly Far Apart In Juan Soto Trade Talks

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The Yankees are known to have interest in Padres outfielder Juan Soto but it doesn’t seem as though a trade is close to coming to fruition. Per reports from Ken Rosenthal, Dennis Lin and Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Andy Martino of SNY, talks have stalled with a noticeable gap between the two clubs. Heyman says that “at least nine” clubs have checked in, while the report from The Athletic says the Blue Jays are involved.

All the reports indicate that the Padres are asking for a multi-player return, with Martino reporting that the Friars asked for Michael King, Drew Thorpe and four or five other prospects such as Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito, as well as salary relief for Soto and Trent Grisham, who was also in the discussions. He adds that none of Jasson Dominguez, Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres, Austin Wells or Everson Pereira are involved. The report from The Athletic identifies Clarke Schmidt as a target.

It seems there is a disparity in how to value Soto, who is incredibly talented in a vacuum but there are other factors that could diminish his value in a trade. He only just turned 25 years old but has already played in 779 big league games with 160 home runs. He has drawn walks in 19% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 17.1% of them. He has slashed .284/.421/.524 overall for a wRC+ of 154, indicating he’s been 54% better than the league average hitter.

But he is now just one year removed from free agency, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting an arbitration salary of $33MM next year. It is generally expected that signing him to an extension will be extremely difficult, given that he’s about to hit the open market just after his 26th birthday, a uniquely young age for a free agent. The Nationals reportedly offered him an extension of $440MM in July of last year, eventually putting him on the trading block when he rejected it. Since then, he banked $23MM in 2023 and is set to add about $33MM more next year, increasing his earning power as he has moved to free agency. That makes him seen by many in the industry as a one-year rental.

Shortly after that extension was turned down, the Nats were able to trade Soto and Josh Bell for a package of six players:  C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, James Wood, Jarlin Susana and Luke Voit. But that was when Soto still had two and a half years of control remaining. Now he is down to one year and his salary has increased to roughly market rate for a star player.

Given the changing circumstances, his trade value should be far lower now than it was when the Padres acquired him. But the Padres still seem to be asking for a significant package of players, seemingly focused on pitching. King still has two years of control whereas Vásquez and Brito each have six. Thorpe is one of the Yankees’ top pitching prospects and hasn’t reached Triple-A yet. From the perspective of the Friars, they think the Yankees are acting like the only suitors, presumably extending offers the Padres consider non-starters.

It’s possible that this is just a classic case of early negotiations, where both sides stake out extremely unreasonable positions and gradually meet in the middle. But both sides also have the option of pivoting elsewhere. The Padres seem to have many other clubs calling, while the Yanks can walk away from Soto and pursue free agents like Cody Bellinger. They are known to be looking for two outfielders, which is presumably why Grisham’s name has been brought up in talks, but the Yanks could always looks elsewhere.

As for the Jays, it’s unsurprising that they are involved. General manager Ross Atkins has admitted that the club is looking for significant upgrades to their lineup, targeting big names like Bellinger and Shohei Ohtani. Like many things this offseason, the ultimate outcome might have to wait for a decision from Ohtani. Recent reporting indicates the Jays are one of the handful of clubs still involved as Ohtani’s market whittles down. But if they end up just missing there, they could call up the Padres and try to get something done for Soto.

Some reports have suggested that the Friars could look to finish a Soto deal as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings, but it might actually be in their best interests to wait. Since nothing is close with the Yankees and the Jays are waiting on Ohtani, the Padres might get a better deal with a bit of patience. Earlier reporting has suggested the Cubs, Giants and Phillies could be involved and there are other speculative fits as well.

Despite Soto’s immense talent, he’s available in trade talks due to the budgetary concerns in San Diego. The club’s payroll for next year is currently estimates by Roster Resource to be around $189MM. Due to aggressive spending in recent years and their loss of broadcast revenue with the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, they are expected to be working with a reduced payroll of around $200MM this year. That means they are almost at their limit before addressing the significant losses to their rotation. Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez reached free agency at season’s end, leaving them with Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and plenty of uncertainty beyond those two.

It appears that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is trying to kill two birds with one stone, moving Soto and his projected to salary to both clear out some payroll space and bring in the pitching they sorely need. Whether he can pull it off will be one of the most interesting storylines to follow in the weeks to come.

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