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Yankees, Padres Nearing Juan Soto Deal

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5:39pm: The Padres continue to evaluate the medical records of the players involved, tweets Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.

3:10pm: Curry reported on air that King, Thorpe, Brito, Vasquez and catcher Kyle Higashioka are all likely to be included in the trade (video link). The deal still isn’t quite across the finish line but could be wrapped up this afternoon.

2:42pm: The two sides are still sorting out minor details and reviewing medical information, but Heyman tweets that a deal is expected to be finalized sooner than later. Soto and Grisham are both expected to go to the Yankees.

1:47pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that even after the Yankees’ acquisition of Verdugo, Grisham is still involved in the current iteration of talks between New York and San Diego. He’d be used as a fourth outfielder and late-inning defensive upgrade. His projected $4.9MM salary is a bit steep for that role, particularly when factoring in the associated luxury tax implications, but the Yankees don’t seem too concerned with club payroll at present.

11:20am: The package for Soto is expected to include King and Thorpe, as well as “at least two” other players, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, who adds that a deal is indeed close to being finalized.

8:42am: Talks between the Yankees and Padres regarding star outfielder Juan Soto have continued throughout the night, it seems, and the Yankees have “intensified” their efforts to pry Soto away from San Diego, Jack Curry of the YES Network reports. Curry calls a trade “likely,” noting that pitchers Michael King and Drew Thorpe could both be in play. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that in addition to Thorpe and King, each of Clarke Schmidt, Chase Hampton, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez have all been discussed. Certainly, the Yankees won’t be sending that whole slate of arms, but there’d likely be more to the package than Thorpe and King alone.

A trade sending Soto to the Bronx has been viewed as a possibility for much of the offseason, given the superstar slugger’s projected $33MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), the Padres’ reported need to scale back payroll (while still adding to a perilously thin rotation mix) and the Yankees’ desire for aggressive and broad-reaching changes on the heels of a disappointing season. Prior reporting on the talks between the two parties have been hung up on the Padres insisting on the inclusion of MLB rotation pieces, most notably including King. That Curry mentions King and Thorpe as possibilities to be included in this deal seems to represent an acquiescence of sorts from the Yanks.

If a deal is indeed completed, Soto would be the second outfielder acquired by the Yankees in as many days. New York pulled of an extraordinarily rare swap of note with their archrivals in Boston last night, landing fellow corner outfielder Alex Verdugo from the Red Sox in exchange for a three-player package. Soto and Verdugo would join Aaron Judge in the outfield, resulting in a major overhaul of a group that was a weak point in the Bronx throughout the 2023 season.

Even with Judge in the fold, Yankees outfielders combined for a dreadful .220/.293/.399 batting line last season. The resulting 90 wRC+ suggests that Yankees outfielders were about 10% below average at the plate even with the 2022 AL MVP’s production included. Subtracting Judge from the equation, Yankees outfielders combined to post a catastrophic .214/.247/.365 batting line on the season.

A Verdugo-Judge-Soto outfield would be far more productive and also substantially reduce the Yankees’ strikeout woes; Verdugo fanned at just a 15.4% rate in 2023, while Soto wasn’t much higher at 18.2%. Both Soto and Verdugo are one-year solutions in the outfield, as both are set to become free agents following the 2024 campaign.

Presumably, the Yankees would deploy Judge in center field regularly for the upcoming season, with Verdugo in left field and Soto in right. The Padres and Yankees had previously discussed including San Diego center fielder Trent Grisham in a Soto package, but Heyman tweets that following the acquisition of Verdugo, Grisham is no longer likely to be a part of talks with the Friars. While manager Aaron Boone can’t formally comment on any potential acquisition of Soto, he did acknowledge to The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty and other reporters just now that the Yankees would be comfortable with Judge playing center field every day this coming season.

Roster Resource already projects the Yankees for a payroll north of $245MM and more than $256MM worth of luxury tax obligations. Soto would push those numbers to around $278MM and $289MM, respectively. The Yankees are already effectively at the second luxury-tax threshold, meaning the penalties they face for incorporating Soto’s salary into the fold will be steeper. As a team paying the luxury tax for a third straight season, they’d pay a 62% tax for exceeding by $20-40MM and a hefty 95% surcharge on the next $20MM spent. With regard to Soto, that’d equate to about $24.5MM of penalties on top of his projected $33MM salary.

Of course, further changes could impact that payroll and roster outlook. The Yankees have been prominently linked to star NPB right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto and are viewed as one of the favorites to land him. Even failing that, the Yankees could need to look for outside help in the rotation — particularly if King and/or Schmidt is indeed part of the swap that ultimately nets them Soto. Adding Soto and making a subsequent addition of any real note to the rotation (barring the acquisition of a pre-arbitration arm to plug into the mix) would push the Yankees into the newly created fourth tier of luxury penalization — often referred to as the “Steve Cohen tax” in reference to the crosstown owner of the Mets.

Latest On Juan Soto

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Recent reporting on the trade talks between the Padres and Yankees regarding superstar outfielder Juan Soto have indicated that the sides have hit an impasse in their trade discussions. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported this morning that the sides haven’t talked since San Diego requested the previously-reported multi-player package centered round right-handers Drew Thorpe and Michael King, though The Athletic’s Brandon Kuty suggests that discussions between the sides are expected to reignite during the Winter Meetings this week.

Kuty goes on to discuss the current state of discussions between the sides, with a few noteworthy updates to past reporting. While San Diego’s proposal was previously believed to be a six- or seven-player package centered around King and Thorpe plus salary relief in exchange for Soto and Trent Grisham, Kuty suggests that the Padres proposed an eight-for-two swap with right-handers Clarke Schmidt, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vasquez all included in addition to King and Thorpe. The other three players in San Diego’s proposal are not known, though Kuty suggests that top prospects Oswald Peraza and Everson Pereira both are “figured to be on the table” in discussions.

The mention of Pereira as a potential piece in a Soto is especially noteworthy as past reporting has indicated that the 22-year-old has not been part of discussions between the sides. The young outfielder has emerged as a consensus top-100 prospect in the sport after slashing .300/.373/.548 in 81 games split between Double-A and Triple-A this season, though he struggled in a 27-game cup of coffee with an anemic .151/.233/.194 slash line in 103 big league plate appearances down the stretch. The inclusion of Pereira as a big-league ready outfield option could make plenty of sense for San Diego, particularly if the club parts with both Soto and Grisham in a deal.

While the specifics of reports on the Padres’ requested return package have conflicted, it’s clear that San Diego is hoping to receive a hefty return with a focus on MLB-ready pitching. What’s more, there’s a clear consensus between reports that the Yankees are particularly hesitant to include King and Thorpe in a package for Soto. Despite the gap between the sides in trade discussions, Kuty notes that restarting talks makes plenty of sense for both sides. The impetus behind a Soto deal for San Diego is the club’s desire to cut payroll, and Soto’s projected $33MM salary (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) limits the number of teams that could realistically fit a deal for Soto into their budget. Meanwhile, Kuty notes that the Yankees are facing considerable pressure to improve after missing the playoffs with an 82-80 2023 campaign.

While Kuty notes that Cody Bellinger is another star-caliber lefty outfielder who the Yankees have interest in, no outfield addition is appealing to the club as Soto. Likewise, Kuty suggests that the Blue Jays represent a potential suitor for Soto if the Padres can’t get a deal done with New York. It’s a suggestion further backed up by SNY’s Andy Martino, who describes Toronto as a “real contender” for Soto, with Heyman adding that right-hander Alek Manoah has come up in discussions between San Diego and Toronto. That said, Martino suggests that the Jays are believed to prefer to wait on a Soto deal until they know whether or not they’ll be successful in their bid for superstar slugger Shohei Ohtani.

Kuty suggests that waiting for Ohtani to make a decision could be a double-edged sword for the Padres. While another superstar-caliber left-handed slugger coming off the board could raise the pressure on interested clubs to acquire Soto, the Padres are likely to attempt to use the savings from a Soto deal to explore the free agent starting pitching market, and waiting to move Soto could leave San Diego with less options on that front. While the free agent market has largely moved slowly to this point in the offseason, the top end of the rotation market has been something of an exception to that rule with Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray having already signed on in Philadelphia and St. Louis, respectively.

Yankees, Padres Reportedly Far Apart In Juan Soto Trade Talks

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The Yankees are known to have interest in Padres outfielder Juan Soto but it doesn’t seem as though a trade is close to coming to fruition. Per reports from Ken Rosenthal, Dennis Lin and Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Andy Martino of SNY, talks have stalled with a noticeable gap between the two clubs. Heyman says that “at least nine” clubs have checked in, while the report from The Athletic says the Blue Jays are involved.

All the reports indicate that the Padres are asking for a multi-player return, with Martino reporting that the Friars asked for Michael King, Drew Thorpe and four or five other prospects such as Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito, as well as salary relief for Soto and Trent Grisham, who was also in the discussions. He adds that none of Jasson Dominguez, Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres, Austin Wells or Everson Pereira are involved. The report from The Athletic identifies Clarke Schmidt as a target.

It seems there is a disparity in how to value Soto, who is incredibly talented in a vacuum but there are other factors that could diminish his value in a trade. He only just turned 25 years old but has already played in 779 big league games with 160 home runs. He has drawn walks in 19% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 17.1% of them. He has slashed .284/.421/.524 overall for a wRC+ of 154, indicating he’s been 54% better than the league average hitter.

But he is now just one year removed from free agency, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting an arbitration salary of $33MM next year. It is generally expected that signing him to an extension will be extremely difficult, given that he’s about to hit the open market just after his 26th birthday, a uniquely young age for a free agent. The Nationals reportedly offered him an extension of $440MM in July of last year, eventually putting him on the trading block when he rejected it. Since then, he banked $23MM in 2023 and is set to add about $33MM more next year, increasing his earning power as he has moved to free agency. That makes him seen by many in the industry as a one-year rental.

Shortly after that extension was turned down, the Nats were able to trade Soto and Josh Bell for a package of six players:  C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, James Wood, Jarlin Susana and Luke Voit. But that was when Soto still had two and a half years of control remaining. Now he is down to one year and his salary has increased to roughly market rate for a star player.

Given the changing circumstances, his trade value should be far lower now than it was when the Padres acquired him. But the Padres still seem to be asking for a significant package of players, seemingly focused on pitching. King still has two years of control whereas Vásquez and Brito each have six. Thorpe is one of the Yankees’ top pitching prospects and hasn’t reached Triple-A yet. From the perspective of the Friars, they think the Yankees are acting like the only suitors, presumably extending offers the Padres consider non-starters.

It’s possible that this is just a classic case of early negotiations, where both sides stake out extremely unreasonable positions and gradually meet in the middle. But both sides also have the option of pivoting elsewhere. The Padres seem to have many other clubs calling, while the Yanks can walk away from Soto and pursue free agents like Cody Bellinger. They are known to be looking for two outfielders, which is presumably why Grisham’s name has been brought up in talks, but the Yanks could always looks elsewhere.

As for the Jays, it’s unsurprising that they are involved. General manager Ross Atkins has admitted that the club is looking for significant upgrades to their lineup, targeting big names like Bellinger and Shohei Ohtani. Like many things this offseason, the ultimate outcome might have to wait for a decision from Ohtani. Recent reporting indicates the Jays are one of the handful of clubs still involved as Ohtani’s market whittles down. But if they end up just missing there, they could call up the Padres and try to get something done for Soto.

Some reports have suggested that the Friars could look to finish a Soto deal as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings, but it might actually be in their best interests to wait. Since nothing is close with the Yankees and the Jays are waiting on Ohtani, the Padres might get a better deal with a bit of patience. Earlier reporting has suggested the Cubs, Giants and Phillies could be involved and there are other speculative fits as well.

Despite Soto’s immense talent, he’s available in trade talks due to the budgetary concerns in San Diego. The club’s payroll for next year is currently estimates by Roster Resource to be around $189MM. Due to aggressive spending in recent years and their loss of broadcast revenue with the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, they are expected to be working with a reduced payroll of around $200MM this year. That means they are almost at their limit before addressing the significant losses to their rotation. Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez reached free agency at season’s end, leaving them with Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and plenty of uncertainty beyond those two.

It appears that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is trying to kill two birds with one stone, moving Soto and his projected to salary to both clear out some payroll space and bring in the pitching they sorely need. Whether he can pull it off will be one of the most interesting storylines to follow in the weeks to come.

Padres Continuing Juan Soto Trade Talks

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Chatter about a potential Juan Soto trade has gained steam within the past few days. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote on Tuesday the Padres were “almost certain” to deal the star outfielder this offseason. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported this morning that the Friars are engaging other clubs in discussions about the winter’s top trade candidate.

While there’s no indication one team has moved ahead as any sort of favorite, it seems increasingly likely the Padres will pull the trigger on a deal — perhaps as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings. San Diego’s biggest motivation would be to subtract Soto’s arbitration salary, projected at $33MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, from their books. Making a trade relatively early in the offseason would afford the front office more clarity as they subsequently look to deepen the roster in other areas.

The Yankees have made no secret of their desire to add a left-handed hitting outfielder. None would be as impactful as Soto, who could slot into left field to form an otherworldly corner outfield tandem with Aaron Judge. On Wednesday, SNY’s Andy Martino wrote that while San Diego and the Yankees continued ongoing dialogue, talks were still in their early stages and no deal was close.

[Related: The Best Fits For A Juan Soto Trade]

If the Padres accelerate discussions on Soto with the Yankees or another team, it seems controllable starting pitching would be a focal point of the return. Brendan Kuty of the Athletic wrote on Wednesday that San Diego was looking for upper-level rotation help in Soto talks. Both Passan and Dennis Lin of the Athletic expressed a similar sentiment.

That’s no surprise. Rotation depth is the biggest question facing president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office. Each of Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez hit free agency. (Martinez has already come off the board by agreeing to a two-year deal with the Reds.) Beyond Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, the Padres have some combination of Pedro Avila, Jay Groome, Matt Waldron, Glenn Otto and Jairo Iriarte as rotation options. That’s nowhere near sufficient for a team that hopes to compete, meaning the Padres need to bring in at least two (ideally three) starters.

That’d be difficult to accomplish via free agency. Lin wrote yesterday that the team was currently operating with around $10-20MM in payroll space. That probably wouldn’t be enough to add more than one notable starter. As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, the cost of back-end starting pitching has landed in the low eight-figure range early in the offseason. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson signed with St. Louis for $11MM and $13MM, respectively. Martinez secured a $13MM average annual value on his contract with Cincinnati. Rebound candidate Luis Severino received a $13MM guarantee from the Mets.

Adding someone of that nature could require all of the financial resources presently at the front office’s disposal. The Padres need multiple starters and are likely to look for some kind of relief help after seeing Josh Hader hit free agency and flipping Scott Barlow to the Guardians for Enyel De Los Santos. They need a backup catcher behind Luis Campusano and could stand to bring in position player depth off the bench.

Accomplishing all that won’t be possible without clearing payroll. They have smaller alternatives outside of a Soto trade. Center fielder Trent Grisham, with a projected $4.9MM arbitration salary, could move. There’d be plenty of interest in second baseman Ha-Seong Kim, who is due $10MM (including a $2MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option) in his final season before free agency. They’d have a harder time offloading the likes of Jake Cronenworth or Robert Suarez and almost certainly won’t be able to trade Xander Bogaerts, whose $280MM free agent deal seemed well above market value.

Soto projects as the highest-paid player on next year’s roster. Trading him would clear the most short-term spending room of any move the Padres could make. They’d bring back some amount of MLB-ready help in that deal, although they’d clearly recoup far less than they surrendered to acquire Soto at the 2022 trade deadline. With only one season of club control and a hefty projected salary that’ll rule out a lot of organizations, the trade value is less than one might expect for an MVP-caliber player.

The closest analogue is the 2020 Mookie Betts trade. The Red Sox received Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong while offloading around $48MM on the underwater David Price contract. Verdugo, the headliner, was a 24-year-old outfielder with five seasons of club control who had hit .294/.342/.475 the year before. (By measure of wRC+, that was 12 percentage points better than league average in the “juiced ball” 2019 season.) Downs ranked 86th on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects at the time. Wong was a mid-tier talent in the Dodgers farm system.

San Diego should top that return if they’re not attaching another contract. Yet it’s possible they don’t return anyone as valuable as the top three talents (MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams and James Wood) whom they sent to the Nationals to acquire Soto.

Each of Kuty and Jon Heyman of the New York Post unsurprisingly indicate the Yankees are unlikely to include Jasson Dominguez or Anthony Volpe in a Soto package. Kuty adds that New York is also reluctant to relinquish pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, while Heyman indicates they prefer to retain Michael King. Both Kuty and Heyman float right-hander Clarke Schmidt as a possible piece of the return. Schmidt, who is projected for a $2.6MM salary and eligible for arbitration for four seasons, would likely be more of a secondary piece after turning in a 4.64 ERA with decent strikeout and walk numbers over 159 innings.

Of course, the Padres will consider offers from teams outside the Bronx. The Cubs have shown interest; Passan floats the Giants and Phillies as possibilities, although a deal with San Francisco would be made challenging by the intra-divisional aspect. They’ll likely be limited to high-payroll clubs with a legitimate chance to compete in 2024. As a one-year rental, Soto isn’t a fit for teams that aren’t firmly in “win-now” mode.

Martino reported yesterday that the Mets were likely to remain on the sidelines as they align their contention window more firmly towards ’25. Passan indicates the Red Sox have a similar reluctance to surrender much future value for a rental. He adds that the Mariners — a strong fit from a roster perspective — may be deterred by Soto’s projected salary.

As for San Diego, trading Soto would open the ability to make a run at some players in the middle tiers of free agency. Passan reports that the Friars could pursue KBO center fielder Jung Hoo Lee and/or NPB reliever Yuki Matsui if they made a move on Soto. Lee, whom MLBTR predicts for a five-year, $50MM pact, could step into the outfield spot vacated by Soto’s departure. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM contract on Matsui — a left-hander who worked to a 1.57 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout rate in 57 1/3 innings during his final season in Japan.

Yankees Notes: Rotation, Kahnle, Bowman, Boone

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While the Yankees won’t be playing in the postseason this fall, each member of the starting staff still has something to pitch for over the final six games of the season. Gerrit Cole likely has one start remaining to bolster his Cy Young case. The six-time All-Star is the clear favorite, boasting the AL lead in innings pitched and ERA, but he could do with one more strong outing to pad his stats. Meanwhile, converted reliever Michael King has one final game to cap off his impressive transformation into a starting pitcher. If he looks like a lock for the rotation in 2024, it should increase his earning power during the arbitration process this winter.

Carlos Rodón hasn’t looked like himself in the first season of a six-year deal with the Yankees, and his last start will give him a chance to right the ship before the year is up. Similarly, Clarke Schmidt, Luke Weaver, and Frankie Montas are all looking to make a strong impression in their final outings.

Schmidt turned heads out of the bullpen in his rookie season but hasn’t looked quite as sharp out of the rotation during his sophomore campaign, especially as the year has gone on. He’ll look to improve on his 5.24 ERA since the All-Star break. Weaver and Montas will both be free agents this offseason, so it stands to reason that each would like to go out on a high note. Weaver pitched well in his second outing for New York on Friday, and he’s trying to turn things around after a disappointing season with the Reds, Mariners, and Yankees. Montas has spent the entire 2023 campaign on the injured list, but the Yankees could give him a chance to return for one appearance before he hits the open market.

In other Yankees notes…

  • The Yankees placed right-hander Tommy Kahnle on the 15-day IL with shoulder inflammation, ending his 2023 season. The oft-injured reliever missed the first two months of the year with biceps tendinitis but pitched well from June to September, posting a 2.66 ERA and 3.68 SIERA in 42 games. He is under contract through 2024, and barring a setback, there is no reason to believe he won’t be back on the mound next spring.
  • To replace Kahnle on the active roster, the Yankees recalled Matt Bowman from Triple-A. This will be the righty’s second stint with the big league team, after a brief call-up earlier this month. Following his selection in the 2012 draft, Bowman spent time with the Mets, Cardinals, and Reds before signing a minor league deal with the Yankees after the 2020 season. He missed the next two years recovering from Tommy John surgery but re-signed with New York this past winter. He has a 3.99 ERA in 49 games at Triple-A this year.
  • With the Yankees officially eliminated from postseason contention and facing their first losing season since 1992, it’s fair to wonder if manager Aaron Boone is on the hot seat. Steve Adams addressed that very issue earlier today, wondering if the Yankees will (and if they should) fire their skipper.

Yankees Unlikely To Pursue Trade In Wake Of Frankie Montas Injury

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It was reported yesterday that Yankees right-hander Frankie Montas will require shoulder surgery, keeping him out of action for most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. That led to some speculation that the club could try to make a trade for a replacement, but Andy Martino of SNY reports that no serious consideration of a trade has taken place and that the club will instead turn to internal replacements like Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt.

Per Martino’s report, there are a couple of reasons why the club is leaning in this direction. One factor is that they still have a strong front four even without Montas, which is certainly true. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón would be in the discussion for the best one-two punch of any rotation in the league, while Luis Severino and Nestor Cortes provide the club with solid options for the next two slots.

That leaves the club in okay shape on paper, though another injury could quickly change that perception. Cortes is already hurt, dealing with a hamstring strain that caused him to withdraw from the World Baseball Classic, though he’s expected to be ready to go around Opening Day. Severino hardly pitched in the 2019-2021 stretch due to various injuries but managed to make 19 starts last year, though he did still make a trip to the 60-day injured list due to a lat strain. Rodón has largely been healthy the past two years but has had lengthy injury absences before, hardly pitching at all in 2019 or 2020.

By sticking with what they already have on the roster, the club is showing a lot of faith in that group to stay healthy, as well as believing in Germán and Schmidt. The former posted a 3.61 ERA in 72 1/3 innings last year, with a strong 6.4% walk rate but a subpar 19.5% strikeout rate. Schmidt had a 3.12 ERA in 57 2/3 innings with a 9.7% walk rate and 23.7% strikeout rate.

While believing in their players is one factor, Martino adds that the second factor is the club’s reluctance to cross the final luxury tax threshold, something that has come up in previous reports. Their current competitive balance tax figure is $292.48MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource, within a hair of the $293MM line. Going over it would lead to higher tax rates but no further penalties related to draft picks or things of that nature.

It doesn’t seem as though there’s absolutely no scenario in which the Yanks would cross that line. Martino reports that they did discuss Carlos Carrasco with the Mets this offseason. However, that was when it seemed as though the latter club was going to sign Carlos Correa and they wanted to move some salary off their books, such as the $14MM owed to Carrasco this year. Martino’s report indicates that once the Correa deal fell through and he signed with the Twins, Carrasco was no longer available.

Another path that the club gave some consideration to was Michael Wacha, as Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports that the Yankees checked in on him. However, he’s now off the board, having signed with the Padres this week.

It seems the team has some willingness to add another player under the right circumstances, but the desire to do so doesn’t appear very high. Free agency still features guys like Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer, whereas the trade market could theoretically have Chris Flexen and Adrian Houser on the block. It’s said that one phone call can quickly change things, but it seems the team is planning to lean on players already in the organization.

It’s a path that’s not without its risk, since the club has subtracted from its starting depth in recent years. Pitchers like Roansy Contreras, Jordan Montgomery, Hayden Wesneski, JP Sears and Ken Waldichuk and others have been dealt away over the past few seasons. The group still on the roster is strong for now but general manager Brian Cashman is aware the depth is shakier than usual. “We have a strong frontline and then obviously the next wave isn’t as strong as it has been in the past,” Cashman said to Sherman. “We need what we currently have to stay active and over the course of time, some alternative depth options might present themselves.” As they gear up for another battle in the cutthroat AL East, time will tell if they have the pieces to repeat as division champions.

Looking At The Yankees’ Rotation Depth

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Up until a couple of weeks ago, the Yankees seemed to have an extremely strong group of five starting pitchers. With Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes and Frankie Montas penciled in, the club had arguably the best rotation in the entire league. Unfortunately, the shoulder issues that plagued Montas last year are still lingering and he is going to miss the first month of the season. They still have an excellent front four but will now have to rely on their depth to start the season. Even if Montas is able to return to health and looks like his old self by May, it’s possible that one of the other four will need a breather and there will be continued opportunities for other pitchers. Teams almost never make it through an entire season using just five or six starters, meaning depth is always important.

Who does the club have on hand that could step up to fill in for Montas or any other injury? Let’s take a look at the options.

Domingo Germán

Germán, 30, is probably the most obvious and straightforward solution. He seemed to establish himself as part of the club’s future rotation in 2019 when he tossed 143 innings with a 4.03 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 38.1% ground ball rate. But in September of that year, he was placed on administrative leave while the league investigated him for domestic violence. He ultimately received an 81-game suspension and flirted with retirement while serving it but ultimately returned.

In 2021, he was able to toss 98 1/3 innings over 18 starts and four relief appearances. He posted a 4.58 ERA while striking out 23.9% of opponents. Last year, shoulder problems sent him to the 60-day injured list in March and he wasn’t reinstated until July. He ultimately made 14 starts and one relief appearance, posting a 3.61 ERA in 72 1/3 innings. His strikeout rate dipped to just 19.5% and opponents hit just .262 on balls in play. That latter number is well below league average but not far off from his career mark of .272. It’s possible that he just has a knack for limiting damage but Statcast data doesn’t support that. He was in the 26th percentile last year in terms of hard hit rate and 25th in average exit velocity, though he was in the 57th for barrel rate. It’s possible that he would struggle to maintain an ERA under 4.00 but he avoids walks and would still be much better than the fifth/sixth starter on most teams.

Clarke Schmidt

Schmidt, 27 next month, was a first round pick of the Yanks in 2017. He pitched well as he moved up the minor league ladder and was considered one of the top 100 prospects in the league by Baseball America in 2020 and 2021. He’s had some brief time in the majors but his overall workload hasn’t been huge over the past couple of years. With the minors being canceled by the pandemic in 2020, he was limited to just 6 1/3 innings of official action in the majors. In 2021, an elbow strain kept him out of action for a while and he was only able to log another 6 1/3 in the bigs along with 38 minor league innings. Last year, he was frequently optioned and recalled, throwing 57 2/3 frames in the majors along with 33 in Triple-A, combining for 90 2/3 on the season.

When healthy enough to take the mound, he’s produced pretty solid results. His 70 1/3 innings at the MLB level have resulted in a 3.71 ERA, 22.5% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate and 44.6% ground ball rate. His minor league work has been even better, as he’s posted a 2.71 ERA over 71 innings in the past two years. He struck out out 31% of batters faced and walked 7.1% of them while getting ground balls on about half of balls in play. There are some things to like here but he still has an option whereas Germán doesn’t. Given that fact and his workload concerns, he might get nudged to Triple-A until a need arises.

Deivi García

García, 24 in May, flashed some potential in 2020 when he made six starts with a 4.98 ERA. That number might not jump out, but he was only 21 years old at the time, perhaps pointing to an enticing future with continued development. Unfortunately, that hasn’t come to fruition. In the two subsequent years, he’s only made a couple of big league starts while registering a 6.87 ERA in 154 2/3 minor league innings. He’s still young but he’s now out of options. Given his poor results in recent years, he could be given a long relief role in the bullpen or else designated for assignment.

Luis Gil

Gil, 25 in June, has a 3.78 ERA through his first seven MLB starts but he’s not going to be available for a while. He underwent Tommy John in May of last year and won’t be a realistic candidate until midseason at the earliest. Like García, he’s now out of options and will need to either crack the active roster or else be designated for assignment. He’ll be able to pitch in the minors as part of a rehab assignment once healthy, but it will be decision time once the 30-day rehab period is up.

Randy Vasquez

Vazquez, 24, has spent his entire career with the Yanks thus far, signing with them as an international free agent in 2018. He’s since moved his way up and spent all of last year in Double-A. He made 25 starts at that level, tossing 115 1/3 innings with a 3.90 ERA. He struck out 24.2% of batters faced while walking 8.3% and getting grounders at a 48.3% clip. He was added to the club’s roster in November to prevent him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s currently considered the club’s #9 prospect at Baseball America but has yet to pitch at the Triple-A level.

Matt Krook

Krook, 28, is a left-hander that was drafted by the Giants but went to the Rays in the Evan Longoria deal. The Yankees grabbed him in the minor league portion of the 2020 Rule 5 draft. He’s since posted some solid results in the upper minors, though the control hasn’t been pinpoint. He spent last year at Triple-A, making 22 starts and seven relief appearances with a 4.09 ERA over 138 2/3 innings. He walked 12.1% of batters faced but struck out 25.7% and got grounders at a 55.7% clip. That was enough for the Yanks to add him to the roster at season’s end to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency.

Jhony Brito

Brito, 25 next month, has spent his entire career in the Yankees’ organization, having been signed by them as an international amateur out of the Dominican Republic. He split last year between Double-A and Triple-A, tossing 112 2/3 innings over 23 starts and three relief appearances. He only struck out 20% of batters faced but kept his walks down to a 7.7% level and got grounders on about half the balls he allowed into play. Like Krook, he was added to the club’s 40-man at the end of the season to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency.

Yoendrys Gomez

Gomez, 23, was an international signee out of Venezuela, agreeing with the Yankees in 2016. He earned his way onto prospect lists over the next few years and got a spot on the 40-man in November of 2020 to protect him from Rule 5 selection. Unfortunately, injuries have limited him over the past couple of seasons. In 2021, he dealt with a shoulder issue and contracted COVID-19, ultimately only making nine starts on the year at Class-A. In 2022, he spent time at various levels and finished the year at Double-A, but was only able to log 47 innings on the year. The results were good, as he posted a 2.49 ERA while striking out 25.7% of batters faced, but it will be hard for him to carry a huge workload after pitching very little in recent years.

Clayton Beeter/Sean Boyle/Mitch Spence/Tanner Tully

None of this group are currently on the 40-man roster, meaning they will face longer odds of contributing this year, though they could always force the club into making room. Beeter is arguably the most exciting of the bunch. Selected 66th overall by the Dodgers in 2020, he was ranked that club’s #12 prospect by Baseball America going into 2022. That was after a 2021 season that saw him post a 3.44 ERA between High-A and Double-A while striking out 36.6% of batters faced. In 2022, his ERA jumped to 5.75 as he walked 14.3% of batters faced, but he was then flipped to the Yankees in the Joey Gallo trade. After the deal, he got his walks down to 10.6% and his ERA to 2.13. He struck out an incredible 37.1% of batters faced on the year between the two teams but only threw 77 innings.

External Addition

If the Yankees feel these depth options aren’t enough, they could always look outside the organization for help. The free agent market still features guys like Michael Wacha, Dylan Bundy and Zack Greinke. In terms of trades, it’s possible the Mariners might be willing to move Marco Gonzales or Chris Flexen. The Brewers are suddenly loaded in rotation options and could theoretically do without Adrian Houser. However, all of those paths come with a complication for the Yankees, who are reportedly leery about crossing the final tier of the competitive balance tax. Roster Resource currently pegs their CBT figure at $292.3MM, just a hair under the final line of $293MM. Making any external addition without making up that difference will be a challenge. Trading the contract of someone like Josh Donaldson or Aaron Hicks would give them some more breathing room but the Yanks haven’t been able to find a deal so far.

Yankees Transfer Luis Severino, Miguel Castro To 60-Day IL, Sign Carlos Espinal

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The Yankees announced a series of roster moves prior to tonight’s game, with righties Luis Severino and Miguel Castro being transferred to the 60-day injured list. Righty Clarke Schmidt was optioned to Triple-A, while another righty, Carlos Espinal, was signed to a major league contract and selected to the active roster.

Severino, 28, was placed on the injured list July 14 due to a low-grade strain of his right lat. Today’s transfer will rule him out until 60 days from that initial placement, which would be mid-September at the earliest.  That absence is longer than most expected, and the Yankees did not reveal Severino’s timeline until after making their acquisition of Frankie Montas official.  Severino could still be a factor for the Yankees in the postseason.  Severino played catch on the field today, reports MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch.

Severino, 29 in February, pitched only 18 regular season innings in the Majors from 2019-21 due to a lat strain and a drawn-out recovery from Tommy John surgery that included a shoulder injury of its own.  Until this current lat strain, 2022 had marked a return to health and form for Severino, who has a 3.45 ERA in 16 starts.  The Yankees will be weighing his $15MM club option after the season.  Castro, acquired from the Mets in an April trade, pitched acceptably in lower-leverage work out of the Yankees’ pen before straining his shoulder.

Espinal, listed at 5’11” and 175 pounds, has never gotten attention from prospect experts but has demonstrated the ability to miss bats at the Double-A level.  After only a trio of appearances at Triple-A, he’s now on the cusp of his Major League debut at age 25.  Schmidt was unscored-upon over his last seven innings, but after throwing 52 pitches on Tuesday perhaps the Yankees preferred a fresher arm in the short-term.  Espinal can help bridge the gap as the Yankees wait for a pair of new bullpen additions to make their way to New York: Scott Effross, acquired from the Cubs, and Lou Trivino, added from the A’s in the Montas deal.

Yankees Select Shane Greene, Call Up Clarke Schmidt

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With Michael King’s season ended by an elbow fracture, the Yankees officially placed King on the 60-day injured list today.  Outfielder Tim Locastro was also optioned to Triple-A after yesterday’s game, creating two roster spots that will be filled by right-handers Clarke Schmidt and Shane Greene.  Schmidt has been called up from Triple-A, while Greene (previously on a minor league deal with the organization) has signed a Major League deal and had that contract selected.

Greene signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers over the offseason, and posted two scoreless innings at the big league level before Los Angeles designated him for assignment back in May.  Quickly catching on with the Yankees, Greene is now back with his first pro organization — New York selected Greene in the 15th round of the 2009 draft, and he debuted with 78 2/3 innings with the Bronx Bombers in 2014.

Dealt to the Tigers in the 2014-15 offseason, Greene has appeared in each of the last eight MLB campaigns, with a pretty wide variance in performance.  Overall, Greene has a 4.50 ERA over 469 2/3 career relief innings, but at his best, the righty has pitched at an All-Star level (with Detroit in 2019) and worked as a closer and in other high-leverage roles.

This inconsistency led to an extended stint in free agency in the 2020-21 offseason, as Greene didn’t land anywhere until signing with the Braves in May 2021, and he perhaps unsurprisingly struggled over 17 innings for Atlanta.  Over 21 innings with the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate, Greene has a 3.86 ERA, 25.3% strikeout rate, and 9.2% walk rate.

While it will be very hard any pitcher to replicate King’s excellent performance this year, the Yankees are hoping to at least try and fill the gap with a combination of a veteran in Greene and a former top prospect in Schmidt, who is still in only his third Major League season.  It also stands to reason that New York will put more of a focus on adding relief help prior to the August 2 trade deadline.

Pitching Notes: Scherzer, Matzek, Schmidt

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A dead arm kept Max Scherzer from pitching in Game Six of the NLDS, which Scherzer believes was due to pitching fewer innings in the lead-up to the postseason.  However, as the ace right-hander told Jorge Castillo of The Los Angeles Times, Scherzer doesn’t hold the Dodgers at fault for the situation, nor was the postseason a factor in his decision to sign with the Mets rather than return to Chavez Ravine.  The Dodgers tried to limit their starters’ innings in order to keep them fresh for October, and Scherzer went into the playoffs assuming (and he told the club as much) that he was able to keep up the same workload as in 2019, when he helped lead the Nationals to the World Series.  But, he and the Dodgers “never took that variable into consideration” of how pitching less heading into 2021 postseason would impact his arm.

“I bear more brunt of that because of me having those discussions with [manager Dave Roberts] about that, about how I can be used in the postseason and coming up short on that, on my end, of saying I can do something and then it didn’t happen,” Scherzer said.  He also noted that his upcoming free agency didn’t weigh into his scratched start: “It’s literally my arm’s health.  When you can’t throw, you can’t throw….Throwing in Game 6, I would’ve been rolling the dice on sustaining a substantial injury.”

More from other pitchers around the game…

  • Tyler Matzek didn’t appear in a single big league game from 2016-19, as the southpaw found his career all but halted due to control issues and a case of the yips.  It took a long time and a lot of work for Matzek to feel comfortable on and off the field, as The Ringer’s Jordan Ritter Conn details, but Matzek returned to become a strong contributor out of the Braves bullpen over the last two seasons, culminating in his role in Atlanta’s World Series title.  While Matzek’s control issues haven’t entirely gone away (he has a 12.2% walk rate in 2020-21), he has posted a 2.64 ERA and 31.2% strikeout over 92 regular season innings, plus an excellent 1.48 ERA over 24 1/3 postseason frames.
  • One of the Yankees’ more prominent pitching prospects, Clarke Schmidt’s big league career has been limited to 12 2/3 innings, due in large part to an elbow injury that sidelined him for much of 2021.  “It just didn’t respond like we expected it to and it took forever for it to get right,” Schmidt tells The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler about his injury, an extensor strain that Schmidt described as “basically the same thing as tennis elbow.”  Once finally recovered, Schmidt was able to pitch 38 innings of minor league ball and then 6 1/3 innings with the Yankees at the MLB level, and most importantly he says he is feeling healthy heading into the 2022 campaign.  Some adjustments have already been made to his offseason training plan, however, as Schmidt feels that overwork led to last year’s injury.  “I just pushed the gas pedal a little bit too much too early and I learned my lesson,” he said.  It seems like that New York will start Schmidt in Triple-A to give him a bit more seasoning (he has only 25 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball under his belt), but for a Yankees club that can always use pitching depth, Schmidt could be an important arm to watch as the season proceeds.
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