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Cody Bellinger

Cubs Take Cody Bellinger Off Trade Market

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The Cubs entered the month of July widely expected to be sellers this trade season, but the club has turned their season around since the All Star break. Chicago is currently riding an eight-game win streak and have won ten of their last eleven games. The recent hot streak has propelled them to a 53-51 record, 3.5 games out of the NL Central and just three games back of the final NL Wild Card spot. Per Fangraphs, the club’s playoff odds have shot from just 6% on July 17 all the way up to 31.7% today.

Given this rapid turn of the club’s fortunes, the club has decided not to move outfielder Cody Bellinger ahead of Tuesday’s deadline, according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Cubs’ decision takes the best available rental bat off the market, furthering limiting options for clubs looking to upgrade their offense amid a thin market for position players. Per Rogers, the Cubs figure to shift their focus to buying in the coming days, with bullpen help as a particular area of focus for the club.

Bellinger has been everything the Cubs could have reasonably hoped for in signing him to a one-year deal this past offseason. The 27-year-old former MVP has bounced back in a huge way from his injury-marred seasons of the past two years, posting a fantastic .315/.368/.540 slash line in 310 plate appearances for Chicago this season while playing quality defense both in center field and at first base. He’s striking out just 16.1% of the time, a career-best mark, and his ISO of .225, while still a far cry from the .274 figure of his first four seasons, is nonetheless a major improvement over the .162 figure he posted during his last two seasons in LA.

While Bellinger’s performance hasn’t been entirely supported by more advanced metrics this season, as evidenced by his .381 wOBA greatly outstripping his .328 xwOBA, even his underlying performance has been that of a clearly above-average regular. In retaining their star outfielder, the club will have the option to extend him a Qualifying Offer following the 2023 campaign, an option they appear all but certain to take, barring a major injury change the trajectory of Bellinger’s free agency. Should the Cubs extend him a QO, they’ll receive draft pick compensation in the event that he signs elsewhere this offseason, as they did with catcher Willson Contreras this past offseason.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco examined the best possible matches in a Bellinger trade earlier this month, highlighting the Astros, Giants, and Yankees as the best fits in the process. Those clubs and others who planned to pursue Bellinger’s services will now have to look elsewhere to upgrade their outfield. Tommy Pham and Mark Canha of the Mets, Lane Thomas of the Nationals, and Dylan Carlson of the Cardinals are among the top options available. That being said, only Pham is a rental option among that group, with the rest presumably coming at a higher acquisition cost thanks to their additional years of control.

With Bellinger now off the market, it remains to be seen whether the Cubs will adopt a similar course of action regarding right-hander Marcus Stroman. The situation regarding the veteran right-hander has gotten plenty of attention in recent weeks given Stroman’s public desire for a long-term extension in Chicago and the Cubs’ disinclination to discuss such an arrangement.

While it’s possible the Cubs’ stance on extending Stroman has changed following the club’s recent hot stretch, it’s also possible that Stroman’s recent performance could present a new obstacle in any negotiations. While the righty sports a solid 3.51 ERA and 3.60 FIP across 22 starts this season, Stroman’s past six starts have seen those figures balloon up from 2.28 and 3.36, respectively, due to the 32-year-old hurler allowing a whopping 28 runs (24 earned) in 27 innings of work since his start on June 25 in London.

That the Cubs are turning their attention to the bullpen is hardly a surprise. The club has gotten excellent production out of Stroman, Justin Steele, and Kyle Hendricks at the front of their rotation, while Drew Smyly has proven to be a serviceable back-end starter over the past two seasons. Jameson Taillon has struggled mightily this season, with a 5.46 ERA in 18 starts, but he’s in just the first year of a four-year, $68MM contract and has pitched to a 1.78 ERA over his past five starts, making it unlikely the club would spend prospect capital to remove the veteran hurler from their rotation.

That leaves the bullpen as a much clearer place to upgrade, as the Cubs sport a middle-of-the-pack 4.05 bullpen ERA entering play today. Right-handers Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. have all put up solid seasons, with Alzolay in particular impressing as the club’s closer. Still, it’s easy to see how the club could benefit from a steady veteran option such as Paul Sewald of the Mariners or Scott Barlow of the Royals. Those two arms in particular come with an additional year of team control, which could be particularly valuable to a team at the beginning of a new competitive window like Chicago.

While Rogers doesn’t indicate the Cubs are expected to add at the position, first base has been something of a disaster for the Cubs this season. Bellinger’s positional flexibility and a surprisingly solid season from fourth outfielder Mike Tauchman have helped to patch up the issue, but significant struggles from youngster Matt Mervis and veteran Trey Mancini have left the club with a 97 wRC+ at the position even after factoring in Bellinger’s contributions. C.J. Cron of the Rockies, Jeimer Candelario of the Nationals and Adam Duvall of the Red Sox are trade candidates who the Cubs could turn to at the position should they pursue an upgrade.

Cubs Still Evaluating Deadline Trajectory

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The Cubs beat their crosstown rivals this evening, pulling themselves within two games of .500 in the process. The North Siders now sit at 49-51, six games behind the Brewers in the NL Central and 4 1/2 back of the three teams (Arizona, San Francisco and Philadelphia) tied for the last couple Wild Card spots.

With the club on the fringe of contention, the front office continues to evaluate whether it’s more prudent to add for a playoff push or move short-term veterans for future value. Before tonight’s win, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer wrote that the Cubs had yet to commit to a direction with the deadline a week off.

If Chicago were to entertain offers, they’d be able to market two of the top players available. Aside from Shohei Ohtani, no impending free agent hitter with a chance to move would be more impactful than Cody Bellinger. While he hasn’t quite recaptured his MVP heights, Bellinger has bounced most of the way back from two middling seasons to finish his Dodgers’ tenure. He’s hitting .314/.363/.540 over 292 trips to the plate and typically rates as an above-average to plus defensive center fielder.

Marcus Stroman would be one of the top pitchers on the market. The 32-year-old has struggled in July but still carries an excellent 3.09 ERA over 122 1/3 innings. He’s picking up ground-balls at a 57.8% clip, continuing his career track record of stifling opponents’ power output.

Both players are likely headed for free agency. Bellinger is sure to decline his end of a mutual option. Barring injury, Stroman will do the same with a $21MM player option. Stroman has angled for a contract extension, but the Cubs are reportedly holding off on such talks as they consider trade options. Bellinger will be one of the top hitters in a free agent class light on impact bats. With top center field prospects like Kevin Alcántara and Pete Crow-Armstrong in the farm system and Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ on multi-year contracts, there’s an argument for the Cubs to prioritize players other than Bellinger past this season.

It has generally been assumed the Cubs would either trade both Bellinger and Stroman or neither player (depending on whether they decide to sell). However, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this evening that Chicago could also consider dealing Stroman while hanging on to Bellinger. That’s a result of the players’ respective qualifying offer status.

Stroman already received and accepted a qualifying offer in his career. Players can be tagged with a QO a maximum of one time. Bellinger has never received the offer. If the Cubs hold both through season’s end, they’d only be able to tender the QO to Bellinger. They’d get a draft choice if Bellinger signed elsewhere but no compensation if Stroman departed.

Beyond that duo, the Cubs have a handful of potential trade candidates. Kyle Hendricks is controllable for another season on a $16MM team option and carries a 3.38 ERA over 11 starts. Yan Gomes is a solid veteran catcher; his contract contains a $6MM club option for 2024. Michael Fulmer is an affordable rental reliever who has pitched well over the past six weeks.

Whether any of those players move could well be determined by the on-field results of the next six days. The Cubs wrap their series with the White Sox tomorrow. They’ll go to St. Louis for a four-game set through the weekend and play one game against the Reds (one of the teams they’re trying to track down) before the deadline.

Rays Have Some Interest In Marcus Stroman

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The Rays could use some starting pitching and apparently have some interest in Cubs right-hander Marcus Stroman. On the Onto Waveland podcast with Brett Taylor, Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney, they relay that the Rays aren’t currently in on Cody Bellinger but are “doing homework” on Stroman. (Discussion around the Rays starts around the 29-minute mark.)

It’s fairly logical that the Rays would be interested in Stroman, who has a long track record of big league success and is having an excellent season. He has a career 3.55 earned run average in 1285 2/3 innings dating back to his 2014 debut. This year, his ERA is down to 2.88 through 20 starts. His 21.3% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate are both close to league average, but Stroman’s always been a ground ball specialist and his 58.4% rate in that department is his highest since 2018.

Despite Stroman’s contributions, the Cubs aren’t having a great season overall. They are 45-50, putting them 7.5 games back of the Brewers in the National League Central with the Reds in between, and seven games back in the Wild Card race as well. Perhaps a hot streak in the next week or so could change the calculus, but it seems fair to expect the club to consider selling off some players who aren’t part of their long-term plans.

Stroman has one more year left on his contract, set to make $21MM next year, but has the ability to opt out and return to free agency after the current campaign. Given his strong results, it will be a fairly easy decision for him to trigger that opt-out and secure a larger guarantee on another multi-year deal. He has been quite candid about his desire to stick with the Cubs via a long-term extension, but the club reportedly doesn’t share his same enthusiasm to work out a new deal. All those factors seem to point to Stroman being traded in the coming days and he was placed in the #6 slot on MLBTR’s list of top deadline trade candidates.

The Rays could use another starter, given that they have dealt with multiple significant injuries to their rotation. Shane Baz had Tommy John surgery last year and was known to be a non-factor this year, but they have since lost Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs to season-ending surgeries with Josh Fleming seemingly set for a significant absence as well. They still have a solid front four in Shane McClanahan, Taj Bradley, Tyler Glasnow and Zach Eflin, but each of those pitchers except for Bradley has been on the IL this year, leading the club to deploy bullpen games at various points.

Getting another starter into the mix would strengthen the overall group for the postseason push, but acquiring a rental could be a logical move for the Rays. Each of their four current starters are still under contract or under club control for next year. Baz could rejoin the rotation going into 2024, with Springs and Rasmussen potentially coming back in the middle of the next campaign as well. Getting a short-term fix would require the club to send a lesser return the other way, compared to a pitcher with a longer window of control. The Rays have already been connected to impending free agents like Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Lance Lynn, the latter of whom has a club option for 2024.

Stroman would also fit the bill, given his ability to opt out of his deal this fall. His ground ball tendencies would also be a good fit for a Tampa club that generally has strong defense. The Rays collectively have 16 Defensive Runs Saved from the shortstop position, the best mark in the league. Their 10 Outs Above Average at that spot are second only to the Cubs. Their tallies at second and third base are a bit lower but still above average. Their first base marks are subpar, but it’s still a solid group overall.

It’s worth pointing out, however, that Stroman’s opt-out does complicate his trade candidacy slightly. As mentioned, he’s currently looking like a lock to exercise that opt-out in a few months, given his good numbers on the year. But there’s always the risk of that situation changing after a deal. If the Rays were to acquire Stroman and he then suffered some sort of injury that would carry into next year, perhaps he would decide against triggering that opt-out, instead just taking the $21MM that he already has in hand.

Some clubs might be fine with taking that risk, but the Rays are one of the lowest-spending clubs among contenders. A $21MM salary might be a drop in the bucket to some clubs — but not to Tampa Bay. Their highest-paid player this year is Eflin, who’s making $11MM. They also have a big spike coming up next year, with Glasnow’s salary set to jump from this year’s $5.35MM to next year’s $25MM, a big financial outlay they made in order to push his free agency back by one year.

Per Roster Resource, the Rays have already committed $74MM to next year’s club, just shy of this year’s $78MM payroll. That’s before even factoring in arbitration raises for players like Randy Arozarena, Harold Ramírez, Jason Adam and others. The Rays often find ways to save money in the offseason by trading players with significant salaries, but they are currently trending to have a larger payroll next year. Although Stroman is likely going to be opting out, the Rays would be taking on at least some risk of an extra $21MM being added to that equation.

Any team acquiring Stroman would be in a similar situation, but most would have a bit more financial wiggle room. He is still likely to generate plenty of interest regardless and has already been connected to the Astros and Blue Jays. The trade deadline is on August 1, less than two weeks away.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: All Eyes on the Angels, Cardinals Trade Options and Buyers or Sellers

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Do you feel that the Yankees should be sellers? (17:25)
  • If the Rangers were to acquire Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger from the Cubs, would that make them the favorite in American League? (21:30)
  • What are the Blue Jays going to target at the deadline? (24:00)

Check out our past episodes!

Looking For A Match In A Cody Bellinger Trade

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Cody Bellinger is probably the top rental hitter who’ll be traded in the next two weeks. The Cubs have gotten excellent production for their $17.5MM rebound flier on the former MVP.

Bellinger went into Wednesday night’s action carrying a .308/.365/.523 batting line over 266 plate appearances. That’s well shy of his career-best 2019 season but right in line with his next-best work as a Dodger. By measure of wRC+, it’s the third-strongest rate production of his career and not far off his .267/.351/.581 rookie showing that ranks as his second-best season.

A left knee contusion cost him around a month between May and June. Since being reinstated from the injured list, Bellinger is raking at a .366/.408/.570 clip. The Cubs eased him back in defensively at first base but have kicked him out to his customary center field spot this month.

Bellinger isn’t hitting for the kind of power he once did, but he has seemingly made a concerted effort to get more balls in play. After striking out around 27% of the time between 2021-22, he’s going down on strikes at just a 17.7% clip this season. Last winter’s Brandon Nimmo contract illustrated how much value the league places on the handful of above-average defensive center fielders who can hit. For the first time in three seasons, Bellinger again seems to fall into that category.

The Cubs should and very likely will trade him. They’re six games under .500. Bellinger is sure to decline his end of a mutual option for next season, so he’s an impending free agent. The demand for his services this summer figures to outweigh the value of the draft pick they’d receive if he declines a qualifying offer and walks in free agency.

If Bellinger indeed changes uniforms in the next couple weeks, let’s identify some fits (teams listed alphabetically within tiers):

Top Suitors

Astros

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has already linked the Astros to Bellinger. Houston general manager Dana Brown is on record about his desire to add a left-handed bat to a very righty-centric lineup. Even with Kyle Tucker entrenched in right field and Chas McCormick playing very well in center, there’s enough uncertainty for Bellinger to be a fit.

Righty-swinging Corey Julks has gotten the bulk of the playing time in left field. He’s on a hot streak and has a decent .279/.326/.402 showing on the year, but he’s not the kind of impact bat who’d firmly rule Houston out on upgrades. It’s tough to know what to expect from Michael Brantley given his repeated shoulder setbacks. Acquiring Bellinger while pushing McCormick to left field and Julks to the bench would balance the lineup from a handedness perspective and add some overall depth to an offense that has been closer to average than expected.

Giants

San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is familiar with Bellinger from their time in L.A. The Giants made a run at him in free agency last winter. They didn’t get him then, but the need is just as acute now. San Francisco has used rookie Luis Matos as its top center fielder over the past month. The 21-year-old is a very promising prospect but has started his MLB career with a middling .258/.327/.326 performance.

Bellinger would be a significant offensive upgrade and a defensive boost for an outfield that ranks 22nd in MLB at -8 Outs Above Average. Mike Yastrzemski could move to the corner opposite Michael Conforto, while Austin Slater stays on hand as a right-handed complement to the all lefty-hitting outfield. If Mitch Haniger returns before season’s end, he’d be a corner/designated hitter option.

Yankees

The Yankees are desperate for offensive help. Harrison Bader is one of the few productive regulars in their Aaron Judge-less lineup, but the corner outfield has been manned by depth types like Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun (both now on the injured list), Billy McKinney and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Even after Judge comes back, one of the corner outfield spots is open.

Acquiring Bellinger would push the Yankees past the $293MM fourth competitive balance tax line unless the Cubs paid down the entire deal (thereby increasing the prospect return). New York has been reluctant to exceed that rather symbolic marker — there are no additional non-monetary penalties for doing so — but ownership and the front office could feel increased pressure to add to a floundering roster that is now outside the playoff picture. It’s easy to see the appeal of adding Bellinger’s left-handed bat to the Yankee Stadium short porch and a lineup that skews heavily to the right side.

Next Tier Down

Phillies

Any interest on Philadelphia’s part would probably be contingent on Bryce Harper holding up at first base. If the Phils are convinced he’s an everyday option there, they could kick Kyle Schwarber to designated hitter and leave open a corner outfield spot for Bellinger. (The Phils could also pursue Bellinger as a first base option if Harper can’t play the field, though that’d leave Schwarber in a corner outfield spot.) It might not be the top priority — rotation depth and perhaps third base are bigger concerns — but it’d be viable if Harper can defend. Phils’ president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has never been afraid to push in for big names.

Rangers

Texas has gotten strong production out of Leody Taveras in center field. They’ve patched things together in left field and at designated hitter, though, relying mostly on Ezequiel Durán to carry the offensive load wherever he’s played. Travis Jankowski has been a solid fill-in as part of that rotation, but Bellinger carries far more offensive upside than the journeyman Jankowski does.

Red Sox

Center field looked like a problem for Boston not too long ago. Adam Duvall has struggled since returning from a fractured wrist. Enrique Hernández is not having a good season. The Sox have gotten their awaited Jarren Duran breakout, though. The 26-year-old former top prospect is hitting a career-best .313/.364/.508 over 269 trips to the plate. He’s not a good defensive center fielder, but with Alex Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida locked into the corner outfield, there’s nowhere else for Duran to play. Adding another lefty-hitting outfielder to the mix is probably too much of a luxury buy for a club that could use pitching and middle infield help.

Longer Shots

Angels

Mickey Moniak has played well since assuming the center field role after Mike Trout’s hamate fracture. A short-term outfield of Taylor Ward, Moniak and Hunter Renfroe could theoretically be upgraded upon, but the Halos are a fringe contender at this point and Trout is expected back in August or September.

Brewers

Milwaukee hasn’t gotten a ton out of center field. Joey Wiemer has 12 homers and is playing good defense but has a .291 on-base percentage. Milwaukee could consider upgrades there or at first base, where Bellinger would be an upgrade on the currently injured Rowdy Tellez. They might have to pay a heavier prospect return to keep Bellinger within the division, though.

Guardians

The Guardians could certainly use an offensive jolt in the outfield. Myles Straw is one of the worst hitters among everyday players. He’s typically at least playable because of elite glovework and baserunning, but his public defensive metrics this season are average. This could work, although Cleveland is arguably too fringy of a contender to pursue a rental whom they’ll have little chance of re-signing. They’re only a game and a half back of Minnesota in the AL Central but they’re two games under .500.

Marlins

Miami is relying upon 27-year-old rookie Dane Myers as a stopgap center fielder. Jazz Chisholm Jr. should be back soon to reclaim center. The corner outfield tandem of Jesús Sánchez and Bryan De La Cruz is fine but not overwhelming. The Fish could use a little more offense, but outside help seems likelier to come on the infield or behind the dish. Bellinger’s contract could also be problematic for a low-payroll Miami club that probably isn’t keen on paying a $5MM option buyout at the start of next offseason.

Twins

This one is contingent on Byron Buxton’s health. If Minnesota doesn’t feel Buxton will be able to play anything other than designated hitter all season, there’s a case for making a run at Bellinger and pushing Michael A. Taylor to the fourth outfield role. If they’re still holding out hope for Buxton’s late-season return to the outfield, this probably doesn’t work.

Dodgers

This would be very funny but it’s not happening.

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San Francisco strikes me as the best fit for Bellinger altogether, assuming they’re still right in the Wild Card mix on August 1. The Giants have a lot of good position players but are short on star talent. One can argue whether the current version of Bellinger is an All-Star caliber player or a bit below that. Still, the chance to improve the outfield defense while taking some pressure off Matos to immediately hit against big league pitching should be a goal for Zaidi and his front office.

Blue Jays, Astros Interested In Marcus Stroman; Astros Interested In Cody Bellinger

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The Astros “checked in” with the Cubs about two of the team’s biggest trade chips, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Houston inquired about right-hander Marcus Stroman and outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger.  Either player would essentially be a rental pickup for the Astros, as Stroman and Bellinger are each widely expected to become free agents this winter — Stroman via an opt-out in his contract, and Bellinger in declining his end of a mutual option.

The Cubs are 43-49 after today’s loss to the Red Sox, and are facing an increasingly uphill battle in both the NL Central (though Chicago is the only NLC team with a positive run differential) and NL wild card races.  Unless the Northsiders go on a real hot streak over the next two weeks, it looks like the Cubs again be looking to sell some veteran players at the August 1 trade deadline.

Houston GM Dana Brown has cited both starting pitching and a left-handed hitter as his team’s two primary target areas heading into the deadline, and landing Stroman and Bellinger in one mega-deal would check both boxes at once, if such a blockbuster trade could be negotiated.  Of course, it isn’t known at this point whether or not the Astros’ inquiries were anything more than due diligence, and it may be yet some time before the Cubs determine whether or not to pivot into seller mode.  President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said yesterday that “there is nothing we want more than to add,” so if the Cubs are even still on the fringes of the playoff race, they might still opt to keep their roster mostly intact.

From a financial perspective, the Astros’ luxury tax number is approximately $218.2MM, as per Roster Resource.  This is well under the first $233MM tax threshold, giving Houston some room to add salary — such as the roughly $10.43MM still owed to Stroman and the $5.21MM owed to Bellinger, plus the $5MM buyout of his mutual option — while avoiding a tax bill entirely.  Houston were taxpayers in 2020, however, and it isn’t out of the question that they could absorb another one-year tax hit in the first penalty tier in pursuit of another World Series title.  Of course, Chicago isn’t entirely in salary-dump mode since the organization clearly wants to compete as early as 2024, so the Astros could make a deal for either player more likely by offering more of a prospect return than a financial return.  In that scenario, the question might be how much minor league depth would the Astros want to surrender for a rental player.

Starting with Bellinger, he would add some balance to a heavily right-handed Astros lineup, and strengthen an outfield that is missing both Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley.  Alvarez is at least making some progress in his way back from an oblique injury, while Brantley’s status is still up in the air as he has experienced several setbacks in his recovery from shoulder surgery almost a year ago.  If Bellinger stepped into the regular center field role, Chas McCormick could spell Bellinger against southpaw pitching, and the McCormick/Corey Julks/Jake Meyers group would rotate through left field duty, with Alvarez getting most of the DH time when he returns.

Bellinger is hitting .301/.358/.524 with 12 homers and 11 steals (from 14 chances) over 257 plate appearances.  He missed about a month with a knee contusion that limited him to first base in his return to the field, but Bellinger has resumed his regular duty in center field and also regained his hitting stroke.  Bellinger had a scorching 1.209 OPS over his last 69 PA heading into today’s game.

Stroman has been outstanding all season, posting a 2.88 ERA over 118 2/3 innings.  Despite below-average strikeout and walk totals, Stroman has done an excellent job of limiting damage (an elite 3.6% barrel rate) and keeping the ball on the ground (58.4% grounder rate).  A .251 BABIP has certainly contributed to Stroman’s success, but his knack at avoiding home run damage would likely translate well to any number of contending teams with decent infield defense.

As such, many teams will surely be calling the Cubs about Stroman’s availability, and another intriguing landing spot besides the Astros has already emerged.  The Score 670’s Bruce Levine reports that the Blue Jays (Stroman’s former team) “have expressed strong interest” in the righty’s services, which would count as a bit of a surprise considering the hard feelings that reportedly existed between Stroman and the Jays before he was dealt to the Mets in 2019.  However, Stroman expressed nothing but positivity about his old club when the Cubs visited Toronto last year, and assuming the Jays front office feels the same, a Stroman return would certainly bolster the rotation.

An inconsistent offense has perhaps been the Blue Jays’ bigger problem in 2023, as a rotation that was seen as a potential weak link has been more or less solid, due to Jose Berrios’ resurgence and Yusei Kikuchi’s ability to at least stick as a fifth starter.  However, Alek Manoah’s inexplicable first-half collapse makes him an x-factor going forward, even if Manoah looked sharp in his first start back after a month-long retooling process.  Hyun-Jin Ryu (Tommy John surgery) is also expected back within the next few weeks, so technically, Toronto could have six viable starters and perhaps less of a pressing need to devote trade resources on a major arm like Stroman.

The Astros have a much clearer need for pitching, considering how injuries have drastically thinned the rotation.  Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are both gone for the season, and Jose Urquidy is just starting a rehab assignment after missing two and a half months with a shoulder injury.  Framber Valdez has already been dealing with a sore ankle and left yesterday’s start with a calf problem manager Dusty Baker hoped was only a cramp.  If this wasn’t enough, Cristian Javier has been badly struggling over his last few starts, leaving swingman Brandon Bielak and rookies Hunter Brown and J.P. France as the Astros’ most viable starters.

It simply isn’t a rotation that looks like it can contend for another championship, and even making the playoffs might be difficult for Houston given the Rangers’ lead in the AL West and the crowded nature of the wild card race.  Adding a starter in some form certainly seems like a must for the Astros, and it will be interesting to see how aggressive Brown will be in bolstering the rotation in his first trade deadline as a Major League general manager.

Cubs Activate Cody Bellinger, Option Matt Mervis

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The Cubs reinstated Cody Bellinger from the 10-day injured list this afternoon. Highly-touted first baseman Matt Mervis was optioned to Triple-A Iowa in a corresponding transaction.

Bellinger is in the lineup tonight against Pittsburgh righty Johan Oviedo, hitting sixth and playing first base. It’s his first start there in two years. Bellinger came up as a first baseman but moved primarily to the outfield by 2019, as the Dodgers (and subsequently Chicago) wanted to take advantage of his elite athleticism. Bellinger has been a very good defensive outfielder but he’ll break back in at first base after losing nearly a month to a left knee contusion.

Manager David Ross suggested as much earlier this week. Sprinting is still causing Bellinger some issues, and while the Cubs feel he’s sufficiently healthy to return to the diamond, they’ll try to ease the stress by putting him at a less demanding position. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters yesterday the club is hopeful of getting Bellinger back in the outfield at some point but didn’t specify a timeline (relayed by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune).

Bellinger will try to pick up where he left off before the injury. The former MVP has been enjoying something of a bounceback season in Chicago. He’s hitting .271/.343/.493 over 163 trips to the plate. That’s not peak form but far better than his results from his final two seasons in Los Angeles, largely attributable to him cutting his strikeout rate from around 27% to 19% this year.

His return displaces Mervis, who heads back to the minors for the first time since he was called up on May 5. The Duke product tore up minor league pitching in 2022 and started this season with a .286/.402/.560 showing in Triple-A. He couldn’t carry that success over in his first look at big league arms. Mervis hit .167/.242/.289 over his initial 27 MLB games, striking out in 32 of his 99 trips to the plate.

There’s little sense for the Cubs in relegating him to a bench role, as he’s still a potential key offensive piece for the organization moving forward. With Bellinger at first base and Chicago using a rotation at designated hitter — Trey Mancini, Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni and Ian Happ have split the last five starts there — the clearest path for Mervis to get consistent reps was by sending him back to Iowa.

Cody Bellinger Begins Minor League Rehab, Plays First Base

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Cody Bellinger made three plate appearances for Triple-A Iowa last night, marking the first game of his minor league rehab assignment.  The former NL MVP has been out of action since May 16 due to a left knee contusion, but appears to be making good progress towards returning after close to a month on the 10-day injured list.

Bellinger played first base for Iowa, which Cubs manager David Ross said (to the Chicago Sun-Times’ Maddie Lee and other reporters) was partially due to Bellinger still having some difficulty fully extending his knee during all-out sprinting.  Even when Bellinger returns to the Cubs lineup, Ross left the door open for the outfielder to see more time at first base, noting that “[Mike] Tauchman’s swinging the bat really well and held down center field pretty well.  So [we’re] just trying to find the best lineup whenever Belli gets back.”

First base isn’t at all an unfamiliar position for Bellinger, as he has 262 career appearances as a first baseman during his seven MLB seasons.  However, he made only four appearances at first base in 2021 and none at all in 2022.  Bellinger’s injuries and struggles late in his stint with the Dodgers obviously factored into this decreased usage, not to mention the fact that Freddie Freeman took over full-time first base duty in 2022.

But, using Bellinger at first base was also something of a waste of a strong outfield glove, as Bellinger won a Gold Glove and Fielding Bible Award for his right field work in 2019, and has been an above-average defender in center field.  This glovework and strong baserunning helped Bellinger continue to earn playing time in Los Angeles even amidst his two-year funk at the plate in 2021-22.

The Dodgers opted to non-tender Bellinger this past offseason, and the Cubs inked him to a one-year deal worth $17.5MM in guaranteed money.  That includes a $5MM buyout of a $25MM mutual option, but it would seem quite unlikely that both sides would choose to exercise their option, as Bellinger was prioritizing one-year contract offers in order to return to the open market next winter with a better platform season on his resume.

Chicago’s bet on a Bellinger rebound has to some extent paid off, as prior to the month-long IL stint, Bellinger hit .271/.337/.493 with seven homers in his first 163 PA in a Cubs uniform.  The sample size is still too small to draw an overall conclusion about a bounce-back, however, and Bellinger did have only a .512 OPS in the 49 PA prior to his IL placement, so some regression might have already been at play.

There hasn’t been any indication that Bellinger’s knee problem could prevent him from returning to the outfield altogether, so the first base usage might indeed be just the Cubs’ way of getting him onto the field a bit earlier and start ramping up for his eventual return to the Major League roster.  Tauchman has also been solid (.274/.403/.323 in 78 PA) for the Cubs since his minor league contract was selected on the same day as Bellinger’s IL placement.

In the bigger picture, the 29-37 Cubs aren’t too far out of the picture in the weak NL Central, but the team might again be looking at being sellers at the trade deadline.  A 32-year-old journeyman like Tauchman probably isn’t in the Cubs’ long-term plans, so Tauchman in center field might be a preview of what Chicago’s post-deadline outfield could look like if Bellinger is dealt elsewhere.

Assuming Bellinger returns healthy and keeps hitting, he’ll be a very interesting trade chip for the Cubs to offer at the deadline, and there’s bound to be plenty of interest given how many teams explored signing Bellinger last winter.  Bellinger as a center fielder naturally has a lot more value than Bellinger as a first baseman, yet if sprinting continues to be any kind of an issue, first base is at least a fall-back position that allows him to contribute in some capacity.

Cubs Designate Eric Hosmer For Assignment

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The Cubs announced a series of roster moves today, with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic among those to relay them on Twitter. Infielder Nico Hoerner has been activated off the injured list, Edwin Ríos was recalled from Iowa and outfielder Mike Tauchman has had his contract selected. In corresponding moves, Cody Bellinger has been placed on the 10-day injured list retroactive to May 16 with a left knee contusion, Keegan Thompson has been optioned to Iowa and first baseman Eric Hosmer has been designated for assignment.

Hosmer, 33, signed an eight-year, $144MM deal with the Padres going into the 2018 but then saw his production tail off once the ink on that deal was dry. He had a career batting line of .284/.342/.439 prior to that deal but has hit just .263/.323/.406 since then. That latter line amounts to a wRC+ of 98, indicating he’s been a couple of ticks below league average. Since first baseman are generally expected to produce more on the offensive side of things, that’s been an obviously disappointing performance.

He was frequently the subject of trade rumors during him time in San Diego and eventually was flipped to the Red Sox at least year’s deadline with the Padres eating almost all of the remaining money on his deal, with Boston on the hook for just the league minimum. Boston was then encouraged enough by the developments of first base prospect Triston Casas that they released Hosmer in the offseason.

The Cubs then agreed to bring Hosmer aboard, which was a move that had no financial risk since the Padres were still responsible for most of the $39MM remaining on the final three years of his contract. It was seen by many that Hosmer would be a sort of placeholder, hopefully playing at a serviceable level until some younger player such as Matt Mervis eventually forced their way into the major league plans. Mervis was called up a couple of weeks ago and is hitting just .220/.256/.317 so far but Hosmer isn’t doing much better, currently slashing .234/.280/.330 for a wRC+ of 67. It seems the Cubs will use Hosmer’s at-bats on other players and let him seek out his next opportunity.

Hosmer will inevitable be released in the coming days and return to the open market. He hasn’t been able to provide much value lately but he might still get interest based on his previous work and the fact that he’d be essentially free in terms of dollars. He also appears to be respected around the game for intangibles like his clubhouse presence and leadership, which could also appeal to certain clubs.

Turning to the other moves, Bellinger seemed to injure himself by colliding with the wall in Houston while making a catch on Monday. The club took a few days to see how his situation developed but has decided to let him rest for at least another week. He was non-tendered by the Dodgers after last season due to his struggles in both 2021 and 2022 but is in better form so far this year. After signing a one-year, $17.5MM deal with the Cubs this winter, he’s hitting .271/.337/.493 in addition to stealing nine bases and playing quality defense. Christopher Morel is in center field tonight and could perhaps stay there until Bellinger comes back.

Tauchman, 32, could also be in that mix, as he’s been playing all three outfield slots in Triple-A this year. He’s also walked in an incredible 20.4% of his plate appearances, leading to a .278/.427/.443 slash line and 129 wRC+. He has 257 games of major league experience under his belt, having played for the Rockies, Yankees and Giants from 2017 to 2021. His career batting line is currently .231/.326/.378 for a wRC+ of 90. He spent 2022 with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization, hitting .289/.366/.430 in 144 games there.

Can These Five Players Sustain Their Strong Starts?

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We’re about a month into the 2023 baseball season, and as is always the case there are teams that are over-performing (that’s you, Pittsburgh) and under-performing. It’s not just on the team side either, certain players are off to better than expected starts, and while a month of play isn’t enough to make a definitive judgement on one’s season, it’s certainly enough of a sample size to have a conversation about whether a player has turned a corner.

Let’s take a look at five players who are have performed better than expectations over the first month, and try and predict whether they’ll be able to sustain their strong start. (All stats are up to date entering Saturday’s matches)

Joey Gallo: .265/.368/.796 with seven home runs 

The poster boy of the three true outcome hitter, Gallo has frustrated fans from Texas to New York to LA in recent years with his tantalizing power but sky high strikeouts and sub-optimal batting averages. Last year was one of Gallo’s worst, as he posted just a .160/.280/.357 line with a strikeout rate a touch shy of 40% between the Yankees and Dodgers and hit free agency without much fanfare. The Twins brought him in on a one-year, $11MM deal and it already seems to be paying off. Gallo’s shaved almost ten percentage points off his strikeout rate and is still walking at his usual solid clip.

Gallo appears to have a really good feel for the zone at the moment, swinging at more pitches in the zone and taking fewer called strikes. I spoke with Betsy Helfand, Twins beat reporter for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, on the MLBTR Podcast this week and she detailed some changes Gallo had made in his stance over the off-season. Perhaps also he’s benefitting from the shift changes. Gallo is pulling the ball more than in recent years, perhaps freed up to play more of his natural style with teams unable to shift quite so aggressively against him.

In any case, there’s a lot to like about Gallo’s start to the season in Minnesota. It’s probably unlikely he continues to hit a home run every seven at bats, but there’s every chance the Twins have themselves a much better version of Gallo than we’ve seen recently.

Yusei Kikuchi: Five starts, 27 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.3 SO/9, 2.0 BB/9

Kikuchi came into the season clinging onto the final rotation spot in Toronto, but he’s been a really solid arm for them over the first month. Last season Kikuchi posted a 5.25 ERA in 20 starts for the Blue Jays and wound up out of the rotation by the end of the season. A big reason for his turnaround this year is a significant drop in his walk rate. Last season, Kikuchi was handing out free passes 12.8% of the time. This season? Just 5.7%. He’s also tweaked his pitch mix a bit, leaning less often on his fastball and bumping up the usage of his slider and splitter.

Yet a peak under the hood of Kikuchi’s performance does raise some red flags. He is still giving up far too many home runs, conceding about two every nine innings, much the same as his rate last year. He’s also carrying a sky high 97.2% left on base percentage, which is bound to drop some.

All in all, I’m skeptical Kikuchi holds on to the sort of numbers he’s putting up over his first five starts and expect a decent amount of regression. Maybe that still results in an improvement on last year and provides the Jays with enough to feel comfortable running him out every fifth day, but I still think he ends up with an ERA somewhere in the fours rather than the threes.

Cody Bellinger: .298/.475/.560 with five home runs 

After winning the NL MVP in 2019 with the Dodgers, Bellinger has descended into a below average hitter since, putting up a wRC+ of just 78 between 2020-22. That led the Dodgers to non-tender him at the end of last season, and he latched on with the Cubs on a one-year, $17.5MM deal. It looked like an expensive gamble at the time for Chicago, but it appears to be paying off.

Bellinger has almost halved his strikeout rate from a year prior, bumped up his walk rate but still isn’t hitting the ball nearly as hard as he was during his MVP season. In fact his HardHit% is at 31 this year, and was as high as 45.6 in 2019 and 38.1 last year. The huge drop in strikeouts really is the most impressive aspect though, as that’s where Bellinger had come undone in recent years. In 2019 his K rate was just 16.9%, but it rocketed up into the 27% range over the past few seasons, so to bring it back down to an elite rate is a firm indication of some meaningful change in Bellinger’s performance.

So with all that considered perhaps he’s sort of back? Mostly back? Or maybe on the way to being back? Either way, it’s still a hugely productive player for the Cubs and the signs are there that even if he’s not peak-Bellinger he’s still very much turned a corner.

Johan Oviedo: Five starts, 29 2/3 IP, 3.03 ERA, 8.8 SO/9, 3.3 BB/9

Little was made of the return the Pirates received for Jose Quintana when they dealt him to the Cardinals at the deadline last summer. Yet in Oviedo, with a few changes, they may have unearthed a really solid mid-rotation arm. Oviedo had been a ho-hum arm in the Cardinals system getting mixed results and it didn’t appear as though his departure would really change much in St Louis.

Yet since coming over the Pirates, Oviedo has blossomed, and I’ll borrow from my colleague Steve Adams’ analysis in a broader Front Office piece on Pittsburgh’s impressive start to the season, which includes this on Oviedo:

Oviedo has upped his fastball velocity, doubled his curveball usage and morphed from a fringey swingman to what looks like a legitimate Major League starter. He’s not an ace, but the tangible changes here and immediate results are intriguing.

Oviedo’s fastball velocity may be up to 96.6 mph on average, but he’s throwing the pitch at a career-low 33.7% clip, instead heavily favoring his slider and curveball, both of which have a 34% whiff rate in 2023, per Statcast. Fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches have led to a stark increase in ground-ball rate – a well above-average 55.7% in 2023 – and a glut of weak contact. He’s yielded just an 85.6 mph average exit velocity and a paltry 31.1% hard-hit rate.

Steve’s piece is well worth a read, but the key here is that Oviedo and the Pirates coaching staff have made meaningful change to his pitching repertoire and are seeing results. With that in mind, it’s hard not buy this start from Oviedo. Perhaps there’s a bit of regression from the 3.03 ERA, but even if the Bucs have landed themselves a solid third or fourth starter who gives them a chance to win each time he takes the mound, it’s a huge win.

Jarred Kelenic: .325/.380/.663 with seven home runs

Is it finally happening? Kelenic has been one of the game’s top prospects for a number of years now but has failed to make an impact at the highest level. That may be changing. Kelenic has been one of the best hitters on a struggling Seattle team to start 2023, and could be blossoming into the sort of player the team dreamed on when they acquired him from the Mets.

Sure, Kelenic will see some regression from the .385 BABIP he holds right now, but the guy is hitting the ball and hitting it hard. He’s already barreled up ten balls and his HardHit% sits at 57.6%, a full 22 percentage points higher than last year and his exit velocity has shot up from the previous two campaigns.

As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic details, Kelenic spent the winter in Arizona revamping his swing with Tim Laker, a former Mariners hitting coach and the results are clear. A career .168/.251/338 hitter in the big leagues, Kelenic looks to have finally broken out in 2023. Even if his strikeout and walk rates are largely in line with his previous numbers the fact that he can do more – a lot more – with the contact that he is making is the difference.

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