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Cody Bellinger

Seven Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Seven players in this year’s free agent class have been tagged with the qualifying offer, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link). Those players are:

Previous reports had already indicated that Teoscar Hernández, Mitch Garver, J.D. Martinez and Rhys Hoskins had not received the QO. The same is true of Jorge Soler and longer-shot candidates like Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier.

The QO is valued at $20.325MM this offseason. Players have until next Tuesday to decide whether to accept. The seven players who were tagged all seemed virtual locks to both receive and decline it. It’s hard to envision anyone in this group taking a one-year pact.

Indeed, the more surprising aspect of this year’s class were the number of players who were not qualified. Last winter, 14 players were tagged with the QO. Borderline cases Joc Pederson and Martín Pérez wound up accepting. Teams were far more risk-averse this winter, shying away from the potential lofty commitment for all but the market’s top options.

[Related: Which Picks Would Each Team Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent?]

With QO decisions now made, every free agent is allowed to begin negotiations with other teams. The five-day window of exclusive negotiation with their incumbent club is over. If these players sign elsewhere, their teams would be entitled to compensation.

The Twins, as a revenue sharing recipient, stand to receive the greatest compensation. Assuming Gray beats a $50MM guarantee (a good bet), Minnesota’s compensatory pick would fall after the first round in next year’s draft. The Cubs, as a team that neither receives sharing nor paid the luxury tax, would land a choice that falls between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round for Bellinger’s departure.

San Diego, Toronto and Philadelphia all surpassed the CBT threshold this year. They’d therefore receive the lowest compensation — a draft choice between Rounds 4 and 5. The Angels finished the season right on the border of the $233MM threshold and don’t yet know whether they paid the tax. As a result, they’re still awaiting word on whether they’d land the pick before the third round or after the fourth if Ohtani heads elsewhere.

Cody Bellinger Declines Mutual Option With Cubs

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Cody Bellinger has declined his end of a mutual option with the Cubs, the team informed reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). He receives a $5MM buyout and officially becomes a free agent. Chicago also announced they’ve declined their end of a $5MM mutual option on reliever Brad Boxberger. He collects an $800K buyout.

Both moves were straightforward. Bellinger signed a one-year guarantee last offseason after being non-tendered by the Dodgers. His goal was to turn in a rebound campaign that allowed him to get back to the open market this winter. Bellinger followed through with a resurgent year, blasting 26 homers with a .307/.356/.525 showing. Aside from a month-long absence due to a left knee contusion, it would’ve been hard to draw up a much better season.

That makes taking the option buyout a formality. Bellinger is the clear #2 position player on the free agent market. Going into his age-28 campaign, he could find a deal approaching or exceeding a decade in length. The Cubs will make him a $20.325MM qualifying offer before Monday’s deadline. Bellinger will decline, thereby entitling Chicago to draft compensation if he signs with another team.

The Cubs have top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong as a potential successor in center field. They nevertheless figure to make an effort at retaining the 2019 NL MVP, although teams like the Giants, Yankees and Mariners could join them in the bidding.

Chicago signed Boxberger to a $2.8MM free agent deal last offseason. The veteran righty was limited to 22 contests by a pair of injuries, including a forearm strain that ended his season in September. Over 20 innings, he pitched to a 4.95 ERA with a modest 20.2% strikeout rate and an elevated 13.1% walk percentage. The 35-year-old might be limited to minor league offers this winter.

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.

No-Doubters

This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.

Likely Recipient

Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.

The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.

Possible Candidates

Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.

That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.

This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.

Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.

Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.

With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.

Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.

A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.

While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.

Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.

The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.

In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.

If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.

Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.

The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.

A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.

Long Shots

Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.

Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.

Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.

That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.

Ineligible

Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.

Central Notes: Bellinger, Counsell, Tigers

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Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger figures to be perhaps the top positional free agent this side of Shohei Ohtani during the coming offseason, and The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma discussed his upcoming free agency with various scouts this morning. Bellinger’s 2023 campaign saw him slash a strong .307/.356/.525, pairing 26 home runs and a minuscule 15.6% strikeout rate with quality defense both in center field and at first base as well as 20 stolen bases. The bounce back campaign comes on the heels of what had been a brutal pair of seasons for Bellinger; the 2019 NL MVP managed a line of just .193/.256/.355 in 900 trips to the plate in 2021 and 2022, production that left him 31% worse than league average by measure of wRC+.

Bellinger’s struggles led the Dodgers to non-tender him this past offseason, leading him to sign with the Cubs for the 2023 campaign. As brutal as those struggles were, Sharma relays that the scouts he spoke to were unconcerned about Bellinger regressing to the below-average form he showed the past two seasons. While Sharma notes that the scouts suggested that Bellinger’s performance this year likely included some good fortune, casting doubt on his ability to replicate the 134 wRC+ campaign he had this season, he still figures to be an above-average contributor over the next few years, with one scout suggesting a 115-120 wRC+ is a realistic expectation for Bellinger in 2024 and beyond.

What’s more, Sharma relays that the Cubs expect Bellinger and his agent, Scott Boras, to be patient in their pursuit of the best contract available this winter. Sharma suggests that the Cubs are “preparing for [Boras] to take Bellinger’s negotiations deep into the offseason” as they maintain interest in resigning him, with the negotiations expected to last into the new year barring “an outlandish deal.” Chicago’s pursuit of Bellinger figures to be a key piece of the club’s offseason on the heels of a 2023 season that saw the Cubs post a surprisingly competitive 83-79 record, finishing just one game out of an NL Wild Card spot. That success came in large part thanks to Bellinger, who was the strongest offensive contributor to the club in 2023. Though top center field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong is waiting in the wings to take over up the middle, that would likely represent a significant drop in offensive output for the Cubs in 2024.

More from around MLB’s Central divisons…

  • Brewers manager Craig Counsell, who is set to become a free agent on November 1, is currently meeting with the Guardians in Cleveland to discuss the club’s managerial opening (as reported by Zack Meisel and Will Sammon of The Athletic). Though the sides ultimately coming together on a deal is considered to be something of a long-shot, the Guardians are accustomed to spending more on their manager than the typical small-market club, as recently-retired Cleveland skipper Terry Francona was reportedly the highest-paid manager in baseball last season. Counsell, 53, is among the most well-regarded managers in the game and figures to be highly sought after during his free agency, with the Mets known to have interest in his services in addition to the Guardians and Brewers. Per SNY’s Andy Martino, Counsell’s meeting with the Guardians today marks his first official interview this offseason.
  • The Tigers found a major success story on the waiver wire back during Spring Training in left-hander Tyler Holton, who pitched to a sterling 2.11 ERA and 3.56 FIP in 85 innings of work for Detroit this season. As discussed by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, Holton stands out as a prime example of the benefits of president of baseball operations Scott Harris’s frequent use of the waiver wire; as Petzold notes, the Tigers have made 17 waiver claims since Harris took the reins of Detroit’s front office in September 2022. In addition to the savvy waiver claim, Petzold notes that Detroit’s pitching infrastructure helped Holton develop a slider early in the 2023 campaign that proved to be perhaps his most effective pitch. Hitter batted just .135 against the slider this year with a minuscule .153 wOBA, per Statcast.

MLBTR Podcast: Adolis García, the Tyler Glasnow Decision and Bob Melvin

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Rangers are in the World Series for the first time since 2011 (0:55)
  • Looking back on the journey of Adolis García (5:00)
  • What’s next for the Astros after dropping the ALCS? (7:40)
  • Bob Melvin reportedly moving from the Padres to the Giants (10:15)
  • Is Tyler Glasnow a trade candidate or not? (14:45)
  • The Offseason Outlook of the Dodgers (21:45)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

Check out our past episodes!

  • Boston Searches for a Boss, Kim Ng and Surgery for Brandon Woodruff – listen here
  • The Mets’ Front Office, TJ for Alcantara and the D-Backs Extend Their GM – listen here
  • Mariners To Spend? Tigers To Contend? And Managerial Vacancies – listen here​

Jed Hoyer On Bellinger, Hendricks, Ross

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Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer met with reporters on Tuesday (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) to discuss his team’s disappointing finish to the 2o23 season and his plans for the upcoming offseason. Topics of interest included the team missing the playoffs, Kyle Hendricks’ and Cody Bellinger’s futures in Chicago, and manager David Ross’ performance in 2023.

While the Cubs finished above .500 for the first time in three years, Hoyer made it clear he didn’t view the season as a success. While most didn’t see the Cubs as serious contenders entering the year, the front office had postseason aspirations from the get-go. Thus, when the Cubs were eliminated after the penultimate game on the schedule, Hoyer was in no mood to celebrate a mere winning season.

However, that doesn’t mean he saw nothing to celebrate in 2023. The executive praised the work David Ross put in this season, extolling the skipper’s willingness to accept criticism and work through disagreements. He left no room for doubt that Ross will return next year. Rather than blaming the manager for what went wrong, Hoyer made sure to give him plenty of credit for all the ways in which the club improved. His comments about the rest of the coaches were less straightforward, and he would only say that further conversations about the coaching staff will take place in the coming days.

Hoyer also had nothing but good things to say about Bellinger and Hendricks, each of whom had bounce-back seasons. Bellinger slashed .307/.356/.525 with 20 stolen bases while splitting his time between first base and center field. He finished with 4.1 FanGraphs WAR in 130 games, finally looking like an All-Star again after two straight seasons of subpar performance. Hoyer said he’d be happy to have the lefty batter back next year but acknowledged he might walk in free agency. If Bellinger does leave, however, the Cubs are committed to replacing his offensive production in the lineup.

As for Hendricks, who pitched to a 3.74 ERA in 24 starts, Hoyer expressed that he’d love to keep the veteran starter in Chicago “for next year and beyond.” That being said, he would not commit to picking up the righty’s $16MM club option for 2024. While $16MM is a perfectly reasonable price to pay for a capable mid-rotation starter, the Cubs might be planning to pay Hendricks his $1.5M buyout instead and then work toward a multi-year deal with a lower annual salary.

Hoyer would not commit to a certain amount of spending over the winter, although he mentioned that there is no hard and fast rule from ownership to stay under the luxury tax threshold. The Cubs were aggressive last winter, signing Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon, Drew Smyly, Trey Mancini, and Bellinger to eight-figure deals. While Hoyer didn’t say anything to suggest he’d spend quite as much this offseason, he did say that he wants to retain the momentum from last winter’s spending spree.

Boras On Bellinger’s Bounceback Season

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Cody Bellinger’s 2023 rebound season with the Cubs has positioned him as one of the top players set to hit the free agent market this offseason. The 28-year-old landed second on MLBTR’s latest update to our Free Agent Power Rankings, and it’s all but a foregone conclusion that he’ll hit the market looking to secure a massive payday this offseason. If there was any doubt about that possibility, Bellinger’s agent, Scott Boras, removed it when discussing his client’s resurgence with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Interestingly, Boras called out the Dodgers organization for their handling of Bellinger when he wasn’t at full health.

“He was hurt, plain and simple,” Boras tells Nightengale of Bellinger’s 2021-22 seasons, when he batted a combined .193/.256/.355 in 900 plate appearances. “He has surgery, and the Dodgers asked him to play with a 35% strength deficiency, and then with COVID, he was deprived of the expert medical treatment. He didn’t have the shoulder strength. You don’t just go from a .900 OPS to a .500 OPS without understanding the impact of an injury.”

Bellinger famously injured his shoulder while celebrating a home run during the 2020 postseason. After swatting a go-ahead long ball in Game 7 of the NLCS, Bellinger and teammate Enrique Hernandez leapt and bashed their forearms together, which wound up dislocating Bellinger’s shoulder. He quickly had the shoulder popped back into its socket and continued to play through the World Series, but Bellinger underwent shoulder surgery in the offseason and didn’t look the same during 2021-22. He also dealt with a hairline fracture of his left fibula in April 2021 and later that season suffered a fractured rib when colliding with teammate Gavin Lux on a fly ball.

Fans tend to bristle at just about any public-facing comments from Boras, but in this case, injuries have long stood as an obvious and likely factor to Bellinger’s decline. The question surrounding his drop-off at the plate wasn’t so much one of whether the injuries were a factor, but rather one of whether he’d ever right the ship after struggling through a litany of injuries in under one year’s time.

The 2023 season in Chicago has rather emphatically answered those questions. Bellinger is hitting .321/.368/.546 with 20 home runs, 23 doubles, a triple and 18 steals (in 22 tries). He’s played both center field and first base for the Cubs, drawing above-average marks at each spot, and perhaps most critically has dramatically reduced his strikeout rate from 2021-22’s rate of 27.1% to a career-low 15%.

Bellinger isn’t walking nearly as often as he used to (7.2% compared to his 14.4% peak in 2019), and Statcast shows that he’s not hitting the ball nearly as hard as he did during his 2019 MVP campaign either. That season saw Bellinger average 91.1 mph off the bat with an overall 45.6% hard-hit rate; this year he’s at 87.3 mph and 30%, respectively. The drop in quality of contact is a potential red flag, but the results are undeniably impressive. When Bellinger does make hard contact, he’s managed to make the most of it.

It all sets the stage for a lucrative payday this winter, when the free-agent market will be largely devoid of productive, prime-aged hitters. In typical quotable fashion, Boras quipped that “demand is often created by rarity,” calling Bellinger a “five-tool player” and Gold Glove-caliber defender at multiple positions before adding that “…the demand for that is very, very high.” Bellinger said all the right things free agents typically espouse, about his desire to remain with the Cubs and his affinity for the stadium, fans and culture.

Nightengale also spoke with teammates Dansby Swanson and Michael Fulmer, manager David Ross and bench coach Andy Green, all of whom raved about Bellinger’s importance to the club and his remarkable season overall. The exact asking price on Bellinger won’t be clear until the offseason begins in earnest, but it’s easy to envision Boras & Co. seeking a long-term deal worth more than the hefty sums secured for fellow clients Brandon Nimmo (eight years, $162MM) and Kris Bryant (seven years, $182MM). Both began their respective contracts in their age-30 seasons; Bellinger won’t turn 29 until the All-Star break next season.

Cody Bellinger’s Resurgent Season

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For much of the 2023 season, it’s looked as though the number of impact bats on the upcoming free agent market would be — well… minimal. Shohei Ohtani looms large over both the starting pitching and position player markets, and there’s no real consolation prize for the teams that miss out on him. Matt Chapman has been the top-ranked non-Ohtani position player on the prior installments of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings — a new version of which will be coming out in the coming weeks — but after a blistering start to the season he’s now been a roughly average hitter for the past three-plus months. He’ll still get himself a hefty contract, thanks to the composite above-average offense and plus defense, but he no longer looks like the second-best name among position players this winter.

That distinction likely falls on Cody Bellinger, whose one-year deal with has proven to be a jackpot for both him and the Cubs. The $17.5MM that Chicago guaranteed to Bellinger now looks like an unmitigated bargain by today’s market standards, and Bellinger is in prime position to trounce that this winter, provided he can remain healthy.

That’s far from a given for a player who had shoulder surgery in Nov. 2020 and has been on the injured list four times since — including a month-long absence due to a knee injury earlier this year. But, Bellinger played in all but 10 of the Dodgers’ 384 games from 2018-20 and appeared in 144 games as recently as last season. Outside of that offseason shoulder procedure, most of his injuries have been relatively minor in nature.

What hasn’t been minor is the manner in which Bellinger has rebounded at the plate this season. Bellinger debuted as a 21-year-old back in 2017 and almost immediately established himself as an MVP-caliber talent. From 2017-19, he slashed .278/.368/.559, originally playing plus defense at first base before moving to the outfield in 2019 without missing a beat. Bellinger won NL Rookie of the Year in ’17 and was crowned the league’s MVP two years later — while also winning a Gold Glove in the outfield and a Silver Slugger.

As virtually any fan knows by now, the sky seemed like the limit but clearly was not. Bellinger was an above-average but far from elite hitter during the truncated 2020 season, batting .239/.333/.455 in 243 plate appearances. That good-not-great production continued into the postseason (.212/.316/.455, four home runs), but the bigger story of Bellinger’s playoffs was the aforementioned shoulder. The then-reigning NL MVP clubbed a pivotal home run in Game 7 of the NLCS against the Braves but regrettably dislocated the shoulder while celebrating that blast with teammate Enrique Hernandez. Bellinger went 3-for-22 in the World Series — one of those three hits being another homer — and required surgery a month later.

The next two seasons were a mess. Not only were Bellinger’s days as an MVP candidate a distant memory — it was a legitimately fair question whether he was even a viable big leaguer for much of the 2021-22 seasons. In that time, Bellinger tallied exactly 900 plate appearances and turned in an awful .193/.256/.355 slash line. He still played terrific defense, particularly in 2022, and he popped 19 home runs with 14 stolen bases during the 2022 season. The Dodgers still non-tendered Bellinger, and the Cubs outbid the field with that $17.5MM guarantee — a pricey roll of the dice on a player who’d been 31% worse than league average at the plate in the two prior seasons (by measure of wRC+).

Just as Bellinger’s days as an elite hitter quickly faded from memory in 2021-22, the struggles he endured during those two years now feel like they’re squarely in the rearview mirror. Bellinger had a brief slump when he was first activated from the injured list in mid-June, but he’s been on fire for most of the summer since his return. In 371 trips to the plate entering play Wednesday, the two-time All-Star is hitting .325/.377/.551. He’s belted 18 home runs to go along with 19 doubles, a triple and 17 steals (in 20 tries). He’s posted average or better marks in center field this season and even looked sharp in a brief return to first base (176 innings).

Perhaps most encouraging is the fact that Bellinger’s hit tool seems to be back to peak levels. Strikeouts were an issue in his rookie season (26.6%), but Bellinger pared that number all the way down to 16.4% during his MVP year in 2019. Following his surgery, Bellinger’s strikeout rate ballooned back to 27.1% in 2021-22. He also saw a massive spike in his chase rate on pitches off the plate (26.8% in 2019; 34.8% in 2021-22), while his overall contact rate dropped from 78.1% to 74.6%.

This year, Bellinger has punched out in just 15.4% of his plate appearances — the lowest mark of his career by a full percentage point. He’s enjoying career-best contact rates both on pitches in the strike zone (86.3%) and on pitches he chases off the plate (73.8%), leading to a career-high 81.4% overall contact rate.

While the improved contact skills and increased selectivity are unequivocally positive signs, there are some red flags that make Bellinger’s rebound appear a bit more tenuous. When he was at his best, Bellinger was a hard-contact machine, barreling the ball at an elite rate and ranking among the league leaders in batted balls at 95 mph or greater. In 2023, however, Bellinger’s 87.2 mph average exit velocity is nearly four miles per hour slower than his 91.1 mph average from 2019. This year’s 31.2% hard-hit rate is nowhere near his peak 45.6%, and his 6.4% rate of barreled balls (as defined by Statcast) sits at about half his best 12.6%.

That’s not to say Bellinger is a bad hitter or is likely to regress to his dismal 2021-22 levels of performance. His massive gains in contact and subsequent dip in strikeouts lend plenty of legitimacy to his rebound. The greater question is to what extent he can sustain this level of production with a quality-of-contact profile that’s actually below the league averages (89.1 mph exit velocity, 8.1% barrel rate, 39.3% hard-hit rate).

Statcast’s “expected” metrics are far from an exact science, but Bellinger still sits on the second-largest gap of all qualified hitters in terms of his actual batting average (.325) and expected batting average (.271). The gap between his .551 slugging percentage and expected .447 slugging percentage is the fifth-largest in baseball. Some fans may scoff at the mention of “expected” metrics, but they’ll surely factor into teams’ valuation of Bellinger over the winter (though most clubs have their own proprietary versions of such metrics which might differ from Statcast to varying extents). That said, even those expected ratios paint Bellinger as a clearly above-average hitter — roughly in line with what teammates Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ have produced this season. And, given Bellinger’s past displays of plus power, there’s quite a bit more upside in his bat than either of those comparisons.

As with any free agent, there are more factors to consider than Bellinger’s bat alone. He’s played first base and center field at above-average levels this season and is obviously an option in either outfield corner as well. Couple that versatility with the fact that he can hit lefties and righties at above-average rates — he’s hitting lefties better in ’23 but has been better against righties in his career — and Bellinger allows any manager some flexibility when writing out a lineup card. This year’s average sprint speed of 28.3 ft/sec is down a bit from his peak 28.9 ft/sec from 2017-19, but it’s still well above the league average (77th percentile). Bellinger uses that speed quite efficiently, too; he’s been successful in 82.2% of his career stolen-base attempts and 85% in 2023.

Perhaps most of all in Bellinger’s case, market scarcity will work in his favor. As previously mentioned, beyond Ohtani, there aren’t many hitters of note to pursue this winter. Chapman’s bat has cooled since his blistering start. Teoscar Hernandez entered the year positioned as one of the top free agents on the market but has batted just .250/.297/.423 — the worst full-season performance of his career. Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez are having strong rebound seasons but are DH-only options. Jeimer Candelario is enjoying a rebound campaign of his own but has nowhere near Bellinger’s track record.

In terms of competition at his position, Bellinger will be going up against oft-injured defensive standouts Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader. Both players are clear alternatives for teams seeking an everyday center fielder, though that’s due more to world-class defense than their offensive aptitude. Neither is as complete a player as Bellinger has been, and Bader has been on the IL three times this year while Kiermaier hasn’t reached 500 plate appearances in a season since 2015 (his only year ever reaching that level).

Perhaps most important of all will be age. Bellinger just turned 28 last month. He won’t turn 29 until next year’s All-Star break. Any team signing Bellinger would be paying up for more of his peak than the usual free agent has to market. Even an eight-year contract would run through Bellinger’s age-35 season. Given his age and the extent of his bounceback this year, it seems likely that he and agent Scott Boras will seek at least one opt-out opportunity in any long-term deal. He’ll surely reject a qualifying offer at season’s end, and while that won’t do his free agency any favors, the QO typically hasn’t been too great an encumbrance on the market’s very top-tier free agents.

No one is going to unseat Ohtani as the most coveted free agent of the upcoming class, but Bellinger increasingly looks like he could be viewed as the next-best position player on the market. His bet on himself has paid off in spades, and as long as he doesn’t completely collapse in the final six-plus weeks of the season, I imagine he’ll hit the market looking to top recent deals signed by George Springer (six years, $150MM), Brandon Nimmo (eight years, $162MM) and Kris Bryant (seven years, $182MM). Whether someone actually approaches or even exceeds $200MM for a player who struggled so substantially from 2021-22 and has a somewhat spotty batted-ball profile in his rebound season remains to be seen. But the mere fact that it’s even worth considering speaks to the magnitude of his rebound campaign at Wrigley.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: The Streaking Mariners, the Struggling Angels and Injured Aces

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

  • The scorching hot Mariners (2:15)
  • The ice cold Angels (6:20)
  • The Rangers will be without Josh Jung for a while, impacting them and the Rookie of the Year race (8:45)
  • Shane McClanahan could be out for the year and maybe part of 2024 as well (13:15)
  • Yankees put Carlos Rodón back on the injured list (18:35)
  • Red Sox get Trevor Story back (21:35)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Any chance that the Cubs try to sign Cody Bellinger to a long term deal? (24:35)
  • Of all the players on the Dodgers’ injured list, which will have the most immediate impact both now and for the postseason not named Clayton Kershaw? (30:15)
  • Are the Angels’ manager and general managers jobs respectively in jeopardy if they fail to make the playoffs? (33:25)

Check out our past episodes!

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Trade Deadline Recap

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss the happenings of the recent trade deadline, including:

Check out our past episodes!

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