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Cody Bellinger

Central Notes: Bellinger, Counsell, Tigers

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Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger figures to be perhaps the top positional free agent this side of Shohei Ohtani during the coming offseason, and The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma discussed his upcoming free agency with various scouts this morning. Bellinger’s 2023 campaign saw him slash a strong .307/.356/.525, pairing 26 home runs and a minuscule 15.6% strikeout rate with quality defense both in center field and at first base as well as 20 stolen bases. The bounce back campaign comes on the heels of what had been a brutal pair of seasons for Bellinger; the 2019 NL MVP managed a line of just .193/.256/.355 in 900 trips to the plate in 2021 and 2022, production that left him 31% worse than league average by measure of wRC+.

Bellinger’s struggles led the Dodgers to non-tender him this past offseason, leading him to sign with the Cubs for the 2023 campaign. As brutal as those struggles were, Sharma relays that the scouts he spoke to were unconcerned about Bellinger regressing to the below-average form he showed the past two seasons. While Sharma notes that the scouts suggested that Bellinger’s performance this year likely included some good fortune, casting doubt on his ability to replicate the 134 wRC+ campaign he had this season, he still figures to be an above-average contributor over the next few years, with one scout suggesting a 115-120 wRC+ is a realistic expectation for Bellinger in 2024 and beyond.

What’s more, Sharma relays that the Cubs expect Bellinger and his agent, Scott Boras, to be patient in their pursuit of the best contract available this winter. Sharma suggests that the Cubs are “preparing for [Boras] to take Bellinger’s negotiations deep into the offseason” as they maintain interest in resigning him, with the negotiations expected to last into the new year barring “an outlandish deal.” Chicago’s pursuit of Bellinger figures to be a key piece of the club’s offseason on the heels of a 2023 season that saw the Cubs post a surprisingly competitive 83-79 record, finishing just one game out of an NL Wild Card spot. That success came in large part thanks to Bellinger, who was the strongest offensive contributor to the club in 2023. Though top center field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong is waiting in the wings to take over up the middle, that would likely represent a significant drop in offensive output for the Cubs in 2024.

More from around MLB’s Central divisons…

  • Brewers manager Craig Counsell, who is set to become a free agent on November 1, is currently meeting with the Guardians in Cleveland to discuss the club’s managerial opening (as reported by Zack Meisel and Will Sammon of The Athletic). Though the sides ultimately coming together on a deal is considered to be something of a long-shot, the Guardians are accustomed to spending more on their manager than the typical small-market club, as recently-retired Cleveland skipper Terry Francona was reportedly the highest-paid manager in baseball last season. Counsell, 53, is among the most well-regarded managers in the game and figures to be highly sought after during his free agency, with the Mets known to have interest in his services in addition to the Guardians and Brewers. Per SNY’s Andy Martino, Counsell’s meeting with the Guardians today marks his first official interview this offseason.
  • The Tigers found a major success story on the waiver wire back during Spring Training in left-hander Tyler Holton, who pitched to a sterling 2.11 ERA and 3.56 FIP in 85 innings of work for Detroit this season. As discussed by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, Holton stands out as a prime example of the benefits of president of baseball operations Scott Harris’s frequent use of the waiver wire; as Petzold notes, the Tigers have made 17 waiver claims since Harris took the reins of Detroit’s front office in September 2022. In addition to the savvy waiver claim, Petzold notes that Detroit’s pitching infrastructure helped Holton develop a slider early in the 2023 campaign that proved to be perhaps his most effective pitch. Hitter batted just .135 against the slider this year with a minuscule .153 wOBA, per Statcast.

MLBTR Podcast: Adolis García, the Tyler Glasnow Decision and Bob Melvin

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Rangers are in the World Series for the first time since 2011 (0:55)
  • Looking back on the journey of Adolis García (5:00)
  • What’s next for the Astros after dropping the ALCS? (7:40)
  • Bob Melvin reportedly moving from the Padres to the Giants (10:15)
  • Is Tyler Glasnow a trade candidate or not? (14:45)
  • The Offseason Outlook of the Dodgers (21:45)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

Check out our past episodes!

  • Boston Searches for a Boss, Kim Ng and Surgery for Brandon Woodruff – listen here
  • The Mets’ Front Office, TJ for Alcantara and the D-Backs Extend Their GM – listen here
  • Mariners To Spend? Tigers To Contend? And Managerial Vacancies – listen here​

Jed Hoyer On Bellinger, Hendricks, Ross

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Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer met with reporters on Tuesday (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) to discuss his team’s disappointing finish to the 2o23 season and his plans for the upcoming offseason. Topics of interest included the team missing the playoffs, Kyle Hendricks’ and Cody Bellinger’s futures in Chicago, and manager David Ross’ performance in 2023.

While the Cubs finished above .500 for the first time in three years, Hoyer made it clear he didn’t view the season as a success. While most didn’t see the Cubs as serious contenders entering the year, the front office had postseason aspirations from the get-go. Thus, when the Cubs were eliminated after the penultimate game on the schedule, Hoyer was in no mood to celebrate a mere winning season.

However, that doesn’t mean he saw nothing to celebrate in 2023. The executive praised the work David Ross put in this season, extolling the skipper’s willingness to accept criticism and work through disagreements. He left no room for doubt that Ross will return next year. Rather than blaming the manager for what went wrong, Hoyer made sure to give him plenty of credit for all the ways in which the club improved. His comments about the rest of the coaches were less straightforward, and he would only say that further conversations about the coaching staff will take place in the coming days.

Hoyer also had nothing but good things to say about Bellinger and Hendricks, each of whom had bounce-back seasons. Bellinger slashed .307/.356/.525 with 20 stolen bases while splitting his time between first base and center field. He finished with 4.1 FanGraphs WAR in 130 games, finally looking like an All-Star again after two straight seasons of subpar performance. Hoyer said he’d be happy to have the lefty batter back next year but acknowledged he might walk in free agency. If Bellinger does leave, however, the Cubs are committed to replacing his offensive production in the lineup.

As for Hendricks, who pitched to a 3.74 ERA in 24 starts, Hoyer expressed that he’d love to keep the veteran starter in Chicago “for next year and beyond.” That being said, he would not commit to picking up the righty’s $16MM club option for 2024. While $16MM is a perfectly reasonable price to pay for a capable mid-rotation starter, the Cubs might be planning to pay Hendricks his $1.5M buyout instead and then work toward a multi-year deal with a lower annual salary.

Hoyer would not commit to a certain amount of spending over the winter, although he mentioned that there is no hard and fast rule from ownership to stay under the luxury tax threshold. The Cubs were aggressive last winter, signing Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon, Drew Smyly, Trey Mancini, and Bellinger to eight-figure deals. While Hoyer didn’t say anything to suggest he’d spend quite as much this offseason, he did say that he wants to retain the momentum from last winter’s spending spree.

Boras On Bellinger’s Bounceback Season

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Cody Bellinger’s 2023 rebound season with the Cubs has positioned him as one of the top players set to hit the free agent market this offseason. The 28-year-old landed second on MLBTR’s latest update to our Free Agent Power Rankings, and it’s all but a foregone conclusion that he’ll hit the market looking to secure a massive payday this offseason. If there was any doubt about that possibility, Bellinger’s agent, Scott Boras, removed it when discussing his client’s resurgence with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Interestingly, Boras called out the Dodgers organization for their handling of Bellinger when he wasn’t at full health.

“He was hurt, plain and simple,” Boras tells Nightengale of Bellinger’s 2021-22 seasons, when he batted a combined .193/.256/.355 in 900 plate appearances. “He has surgery, and the Dodgers asked him to play with a 35% strength deficiency, and then with COVID, he was deprived of the expert medical treatment. He didn’t have the shoulder strength. You don’t just go from a .900 OPS to a .500 OPS without understanding the impact of an injury.”

Bellinger famously injured his shoulder while celebrating a home run during the 2020 postseason. After swatting a go-ahead long ball in Game 7 of the NLCS, Bellinger and teammate Enrique Hernandez leapt and bashed their forearms together, which wound up dislocating Bellinger’s shoulder. He quickly had the shoulder popped back into its socket and continued to play through the World Series, but Bellinger underwent shoulder surgery in the offseason and didn’t look the same during 2021-22. He also dealt with a hairline fracture of his left fibula in April 2021 and later that season suffered a fractured rib when colliding with teammate Gavin Lux on a fly ball.

Fans tend to bristle at just about any public-facing comments from Boras, but in this case, injuries have long stood as an obvious and likely factor to Bellinger’s decline. The question surrounding his drop-off at the plate wasn’t so much one of whether the injuries were a factor, but rather one of whether he’d ever right the ship after struggling through a litany of injuries in under one year’s time.

The 2023 season in Chicago has rather emphatically answered those questions. Bellinger is hitting .321/.368/.546 with 20 home runs, 23 doubles, a triple and 18 steals (in 22 tries). He’s played both center field and first base for the Cubs, drawing above-average marks at each spot, and perhaps most critically has dramatically reduced his strikeout rate from 2021-22’s rate of 27.1% to a career-low 15%.

Bellinger isn’t walking nearly as often as he used to (7.2% compared to his 14.4% peak in 2019), and Statcast shows that he’s not hitting the ball nearly as hard as he did during his 2019 MVP campaign either. That season saw Bellinger average 91.1 mph off the bat with an overall 45.6% hard-hit rate; this year he’s at 87.3 mph and 30%, respectively. The drop in quality of contact is a potential red flag, but the results are undeniably impressive. When Bellinger does make hard contact, he’s managed to make the most of it.

It all sets the stage for a lucrative payday this winter, when the free-agent market will be largely devoid of productive, prime-aged hitters. In typical quotable fashion, Boras quipped that “demand is often created by rarity,” calling Bellinger a “five-tool player” and Gold Glove-caliber defender at multiple positions before adding that “…the demand for that is very, very high.” Bellinger said all the right things free agents typically espouse, about his desire to remain with the Cubs and his affinity for the stadium, fans and culture.

Nightengale also spoke with teammates Dansby Swanson and Michael Fulmer, manager David Ross and bench coach Andy Green, all of whom raved about Bellinger’s importance to the club and his remarkable season overall. The exact asking price on Bellinger won’t be clear until the offseason begins in earnest, but it’s easy to envision Boras & Co. seeking a long-term deal worth more than the hefty sums secured for fellow clients Brandon Nimmo (eight years, $162MM) and Kris Bryant (seven years, $182MM). Both began their respective contracts in their age-30 seasons; Bellinger won’t turn 29 until the All-Star break next season.

Cody Bellinger’s Resurgent Season

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For much of the 2023 season, it’s looked as though the number of impact bats on the upcoming free agent market would be — well… minimal. Shohei Ohtani looms large over both the starting pitching and position player markets, and there’s no real consolation prize for the teams that miss out on him. Matt Chapman has been the top-ranked non-Ohtani position player on the prior installments of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings — a new version of which will be coming out in the coming weeks — but after a blistering start to the season he’s now been a roughly average hitter for the past three-plus months. He’ll still get himself a hefty contract, thanks to the composite above-average offense and plus defense, but he no longer looks like the second-best name among position players this winter.

That distinction likely falls on Cody Bellinger, whose one-year deal with has proven to be a jackpot for both him and the Cubs. The $17.5MM that Chicago guaranteed to Bellinger now looks like an unmitigated bargain by today’s market standards, and Bellinger is in prime position to trounce that this winter, provided he can remain healthy.

That’s far from a given for a player who had shoulder surgery in Nov. 2020 and has been on the injured list four times since — including a month-long absence due to a knee injury earlier this year. But, Bellinger played in all but 10 of the Dodgers’ 384 games from 2018-20 and appeared in 144 games as recently as last season. Outside of that offseason shoulder procedure, most of his injuries have been relatively minor in nature.

What hasn’t been minor is the manner in which Bellinger has rebounded at the plate this season. Bellinger debuted as a 21-year-old back in 2017 and almost immediately established himself as an MVP-caliber talent. From 2017-19, he slashed .278/.368/.559, originally playing plus defense at first base before moving to the outfield in 2019 without missing a beat. Bellinger won NL Rookie of the Year in ’17 and was crowned the league’s MVP two years later — while also winning a Gold Glove in the outfield and a Silver Slugger.

As virtually any fan knows by now, the sky seemed like the limit but clearly was not. Bellinger was an above-average but far from elite hitter during the truncated 2020 season, batting .239/.333/.455 in 243 plate appearances. That good-not-great production continued into the postseason (.212/.316/.455, four home runs), but the bigger story of Bellinger’s playoffs was the aforementioned shoulder. The then-reigning NL MVP clubbed a pivotal home run in Game 7 of the NLCS against the Braves but regrettably dislocated the shoulder while celebrating that blast with teammate Enrique Hernandez. Bellinger went 3-for-22 in the World Series — one of those three hits being another homer — and required surgery a month later.

The next two seasons were a mess. Not only were Bellinger’s days as an MVP candidate a distant memory — it was a legitimately fair question whether he was even a viable big leaguer for much of the 2021-22 seasons. In that time, Bellinger tallied exactly 900 plate appearances and turned in an awful .193/.256/.355 slash line. He still played terrific defense, particularly in 2022, and he popped 19 home runs with 14 stolen bases during the 2022 season. The Dodgers still non-tendered Bellinger, and the Cubs outbid the field with that $17.5MM guarantee — a pricey roll of the dice on a player who’d been 31% worse than league average at the plate in the two prior seasons (by measure of wRC+).

Just as Bellinger’s days as an elite hitter quickly faded from memory in 2021-22, the struggles he endured during those two years now feel like they’re squarely in the rearview mirror. Bellinger had a brief slump when he was first activated from the injured list in mid-June, but he’s been on fire for most of the summer since his return. In 371 trips to the plate entering play Wednesday, the two-time All-Star is hitting .325/.377/.551. He’s belted 18 home runs to go along with 19 doubles, a triple and 17 steals (in 20 tries). He’s posted average or better marks in center field this season and even looked sharp in a brief return to first base (176 innings).

Perhaps most encouraging is the fact that Bellinger’s hit tool seems to be back to peak levels. Strikeouts were an issue in his rookie season (26.6%), but Bellinger pared that number all the way down to 16.4% during his MVP year in 2019. Following his surgery, Bellinger’s strikeout rate ballooned back to 27.1% in 2021-22. He also saw a massive spike in his chase rate on pitches off the plate (26.8% in 2019; 34.8% in 2021-22), while his overall contact rate dropped from 78.1% to 74.6%.

This year, Bellinger has punched out in just 15.4% of his plate appearances — the lowest mark of his career by a full percentage point. He’s enjoying career-best contact rates both on pitches in the strike zone (86.3%) and on pitches he chases off the plate (73.8%), leading to a career-high 81.4% overall contact rate.

While the improved contact skills and increased selectivity are unequivocally positive signs, there are some red flags that make Bellinger’s rebound appear a bit more tenuous. When he was at his best, Bellinger was a hard-contact machine, barreling the ball at an elite rate and ranking among the league leaders in batted balls at 95 mph or greater. In 2023, however, Bellinger’s 87.2 mph average exit velocity is nearly four miles per hour slower than his 91.1 mph average from 2019. This year’s 31.2% hard-hit rate is nowhere near his peak 45.6%, and his 6.4% rate of barreled balls (as defined by Statcast) sits at about half his best 12.6%.

That’s not to say Bellinger is a bad hitter or is likely to regress to his dismal 2021-22 levels of performance. His massive gains in contact and subsequent dip in strikeouts lend plenty of legitimacy to his rebound. The greater question is to what extent he can sustain this level of production with a quality-of-contact profile that’s actually below the league averages (89.1 mph exit velocity, 8.1% barrel rate, 39.3% hard-hit rate).

Statcast’s “expected” metrics are far from an exact science, but Bellinger still sits on the second-largest gap of all qualified hitters in terms of his actual batting average (.325) and expected batting average (.271). The gap between his .551 slugging percentage and expected .447 slugging percentage is the fifth-largest in baseball. Some fans may scoff at the mention of “expected” metrics, but they’ll surely factor into teams’ valuation of Bellinger over the winter (though most clubs have their own proprietary versions of such metrics which might differ from Statcast to varying extents). That said, even those expected ratios paint Bellinger as a clearly above-average hitter — roughly in line with what teammates Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ have produced this season. And, given Bellinger’s past displays of plus power, there’s quite a bit more upside in his bat than either of those comparisons.

As with any free agent, there are more factors to consider than Bellinger’s bat alone. He’s played first base and center field at above-average levels this season and is obviously an option in either outfield corner as well. Couple that versatility with the fact that he can hit lefties and righties at above-average rates — he’s hitting lefties better in ’23 but has been better against righties in his career — and Bellinger allows any manager some flexibility when writing out a lineup card. This year’s average sprint speed of 28.3 ft/sec is down a bit from his peak 28.9 ft/sec from 2017-19, but it’s still well above the league average (77th percentile). Bellinger uses that speed quite efficiently, too; he’s been successful in 82.2% of his career stolen-base attempts and 85% in 2023.

Perhaps most of all in Bellinger’s case, market scarcity will work in his favor. As previously mentioned, beyond Ohtani, there aren’t many hitters of note to pursue this winter. Chapman’s bat has cooled since his blistering start. Teoscar Hernandez entered the year positioned as one of the top free agents on the market but has batted just .250/.297/.423 — the worst full-season performance of his career. Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez are having strong rebound seasons but are DH-only options. Jeimer Candelario is enjoying a rebound campaign of his own but has nowhere near Bellinger’s track record.

In terms of competition at his position, Bellinger will be going up against oft-injured defensive standouts Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader. Both players are clear alternatives for teams seeking an everyday center fielder, though that’s due more to world-class defense than their offensive aptitude. Neither is as complete a player as Bellinger has been, and Bader has been on the IL three times this year while Kiermaier hasn’t reached 500 plate appearances in a season since 2015 (his only year ever reaching that level).

Perhaps most important of all will be age. Bellinger just turned 28 last month. He won’t turn 29 until next year’s All-Star break. Any team signing Bellinger would be paying up for more of his peak than the usual free agent has to market. Even an eight-year contract would run through Bellinger’s age-35 season. Given his age and the extent of his bounceback this year, it seems likely that he and agent Scott Boras will seek at least one opt-out opportunity in any long-term deal. He’ll surely reject a qualifying offer at season’s end, and while that won’t do his free agency any favors, the QO typically hasn’t been too great an encumbrance on the market’s very top-tier free agents.

No one is going to unseat Ohtani as the most coveted free agent of the upcoming class, but Bellinger increasingly looks like he could be viewed as the next-best position player on the market. His bet on himself has paid off in spades, and as long as he doesn’t completely collapse in the final six-plus weeks of the season, I imagine he’ll hit the market looking to top recent deals signed by George Springer (six years, $150MM), Brandon Nimmo (eight years, $162MM) and Kris Bryant (seven years, $182MM). Whether someone actually approaches or even exceeds $200MM for a player who struggled so substantially from 2021-22 and has a somewhat spotty batted-ball profile in his rebound season remains to be seen. But the mere fact that it’s even worth considering speaks to the magnitude of his rebound campaign at Wrigley.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: The Streaking Mariners, the Struggling Angels and Injured Aces

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

  • The scorching hot Mariners (2:15)
  • The ice cold Angels (6:20)
  • The Rangers will be without Josh Jung for a while, impacting them and the Rookie of the Year race (8:45)
  • Shane McClanahan could be out for the year and maybe part of 2024 as well (13:15)
  • Yankees put Carlos Rodón back on the injured list (18:35)
  • Red Sox get Trevor Story back (21:35)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Any chance that the Cubs try to sign Cody Bellinger to a long term deal? (24:35)
  • Of all the players on the Dodgers’ injured list, which will have the most immediate impact both now and for the postseason not named Clayton Kershaw? (30:15)
  • Are the Angels’ manager and general managers jobs respectively in jeopardy if they fail to make the playoffs? (33:25)

Check out our past episodes!

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Trade Deadline Recap

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss the happenings of the recent trade deadline, including:

Check out our past episodes!

Cubs Take Cody Bellinger Off Trade Market

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The Cubs entered the month of July widely expected to be sellers this trade season, but the club has turned their season around since the All Star break. Chicago is currently riding an eight-game win streak and have won ten of their last eleven games. The recent hot streak has propelled them to a 53-51 record, 3.5 games out of the NL Central and just three games back of the final NL Wild Card spot. Per Fangraphs, the club’s playoff odds have shot from just 6% on July 17 all the way up to 31.7% today.

Given this rapid turn of the club’s fortunes, the club has decided not to move outfielder Cody Bellinger ahead of Tuesday’s deadline, according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Cubs’ decision takes the best available rental bat off the market, furthering limiting options for clubs looking to upgrade their offense amid a thin market for position players. Per Rogers, the Cubs figure to shift their focus to buying in the coming days, with bullpen help as a particular area of focus for the club.

Bellinger has been everything the Cubs could have reasonably hoped for in signing him to a one-year deal this past offseason. The 27-year-old former MVP has bounced back in a huge way from his injury-marred seasons of the past two years, posting a fantastic .315/.368/.540 slash line in 310 plate appearances for Chicago this season while playing quality defense both in center field and at first base. He’s striking out just 16.1% of the time, a career-best mark, and his ISO of .225, while still a far cry from the .274 figure of his first four seasons, is nonetheless a major improvement over the .162 figure he posted during his last two seasons in LA.

While Bellinger’s performance hasn’t been entirely supported by more advanced metrics this season, as evidenced by his .381 wOBA greatly outstripping his .328 xwOBA, even his underlying performance has been that of a clearly above-average regular. In retaining their star outfielder, the club will have the option to extend him a Qualifying Offer following the 2023 campaign, an option they appear all but certain to take, barring a major injury change the trajectory of Bellinger’s free agency. Should the Cubs extend him a QO, they’ll receive draft pick compensation in the event that he signs elsewhere this offseason, as they did with catcher Willson Contreras this past offseason.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco examined the best possible matches in a Bellinger trade earlier this month, highlighting the Astros, Giants, and Yankees as the best fits in the process. Those clubs and others who planned to pursue Bellinger’s services will now have to look elsewhere to upgrade their outfield. Tommy Pham and Mark Canha of the Mets, Lane Thomas of the Nationals, and Dylan Carlson of the Cardinals are among the top options available. That being said, only Pham is a rental option among that group, with the rest presumably coming at a higher acquisition cost thanks to their additional years of control.

With Bellinger now off the market, it remains to be seen whether the Cubs will adopt a similar course of action regarding right-hander Marcus Stroman. The situation regarding the veteran right-hander has gotten plenty of attention in recent weeks given Stroman’s public desire for a long-term extension in Chicago and the Cubs’ disinclination to discuss such an arrangement.

While it’s possible the Cubs’ stance on extending Stroman has changed following the club’s recent hot stretch, it’s also possible that Stroman’s recent performance could present a new obstacle in any negotiations. While the righty sports a solid 3.51 ERA and 3.60 FIP across 22 starts this season, Stroman’s past six starts have seen those figures balloon up from 2.28 and 3.36, respectively, due to the 32-year-old hurler allowing a whopping 28 runs (24 earned) in 27 innings of work since his start on June 25 in London.

That the Cubs are turning their attention to the bullpen is hardly a surprise. The club has gotten excellent production out of Stroman, Justin Steele, and Kyle Hendricks at the front of their rotation, while Drew Smyly has proven to be a serviceable back-end starter over the past two seasons. Jameson Taillon has struggled mightily this season, with a 5.46 ERA in 18 starts, but he’s in just the first year of a four-year, $68MM contract and has pitched to a 1.78 ERA over his past five starts, making it unlikely the club would spend prospect capital to remove the veteran hurler from their rotation.

That leaves the bullpen as a much clearer place to upgrade, as the Cubs sport a middle-of-the-pack 4.05 bullpen ERA entering play today. Right-handers Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. have all put up solid seasons, with Alzolay in particular impressing as the club’s closer. Still, it’s easy to see how the club could benefit from a steady veteran option such as Paul Sewald of the Mariners or Scott Barlow of the Royals. Those two arms in particular come with an additional year of team control, which could be particularly valuable to a team at the beginning of a new competitive window like Chicago.

While Rogers doesn’t indicate the Cubs are expected to add at the position, first base has been something of a disaster for the Cubs this season. Bellinger’s positional flexibility and a surprisingly solid season from fourth outfielder Mike Tauchman have helped to patch up the issue, but significant struggles from youngster Matt Mervis and veteran Trey Mancini have left the club with a 97 wRC+ at the position even after factoring in Bellinger’s contributions. C.J. Cron of the Rockies, Jeimer Candelario of the Nationals and Adam Duvall of the Red Sox are trade candidates who the Cubs could turn to at the position should they pursue an upgrade.

Cubs Still Evaluating Deadline Trajectory

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The Cubs beat their crosstown rivals this evening, pulling themselves within two games of .500 in the process. The North Siders now sit at 49-51, six games behind the Brewers in the NL Central and 4 1/2 back of the three teams (Arizona, San Francisco and Philadelphia) tied for the last couple Wild Card spots.

With the club on the fringe of contention, the front office continues to evaluate whether it’s more prudent to add for a playoff push or move short-term veterans for future value. Before tonight’s win, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer wrote that the Cubs had yet to commit to a direction with the deadline a week off.

If Chicago were to entertain offers, they’d be able to market two of the top players available. Aside from Shohei Ohtani, no impending free agent hitter with a chance to move would be more impactful than Cody Bellinger. While he hasn’t quite recaptured his MVP heights, Bellinger has bounced most of the way back from two middling seasons to finish his Dodgers’ tenure. He’s hitting .314/.363/.540 over 292 trips to the plate and typically rates as an above-average to plus defensive center fielder.

Marcus Stroman would be one of the top pitchers on the market. The 32-year-old has struggled in July but still carries an excellent 3.09 ERA over 122 1/3 innings. He’s picking up ground-balls at a 57.8% clip, continuing his career track record of stifling opponents’ power output.

Both players are likely headed for free agency. Bellinger is sure to decline his end of a mutual option. Barring injury, Stroman will do the same with a $21MM player option. Stroman has angled for a contract extension, but the Cubs are reportedly holding off on such talks as they consider trade options. Bellinger will be one of the top hitters in a free agent class light on impact bats. With top center field prospects like Kevin Alcántara and Pete Crow-Armstrong in the farm system and Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ on multi-year contracts, there’s an argument for the Cubs to prioritize players other than Bellinger past this season.

It has generally been assumed the Cubs would either trade both Bellinger and Stroman or neither player (depending on whether they decide to sell). However, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this evening that Chicago could also consider dealing Stroman while hanging on to Bellinger. That’s a result of the players’ respective qualifying offer status.

Stroman already received and accepted a qualifying offer in his career. Players can be tagged with a QO a maximum of one time. Bellinger has never received the offer. If the Cubs hold both through season’s end, they’d only be able to tender the QO to Bellinger. They’d get a draft choice if Bellinger signed elsewhere but no compensation if Stroman departed.

Beyond that duo, the Cubs have a handful of potential trade candidates. Kyle Hendricks is controllable for another season on a $16MM team option and carries a 3.38 ERA over 11 starts. Yan Gomes is a solid veteran catcher; his contract contains a $6MM club option for 2024. Michael Fulmer is an affordable rental reliever who has pitched well over the past six weeks.

Whether any of those players move could well be determined by the on-field results of the next six days. The Cubs wrap their series with the White Sox tomorrow. They’ll go to St. Louis for a four-game set through the weekend and play one game against the Reds (one of the teams they’re trying to track down) before the deadline.

Rays Have Some Interest In Marcus Stroman

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The Rays could use some starting pitching and apparently have some interest in Cubs right-hander Marcus Stroman. On the Onto Waveland podcast with Brett Taylor, Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney, they relay that the Rays aren’t currently in on Cody Bellinger but are “doing homework” on Stroman. (Discussion around the Rays starts around the 29-minute mark.)

It’s fairly logical that the Rays would be interested in Stroman, who has a long track record of big league success and is having an excellent season. He has a career 3.55 earned run average in 1285 2/3 innings dating back to his 2014 debut. This year, his ERA is down to 2.88 through 20 starts. His 21.3% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate are both close to league average, but Stroman’s always been a ground ball specialist and his 58.4% rate in that department is his highest since 2018.

Despite Stroman’s contributions, the Cubs aren’t having a great season overall. They are 45-50, putting them 7.5 games back of the Brewers in the National League Central with the Reds in between, and seven games back in the Wild Card race as well. Perhaps a hot streak in the next week or so could change the calculus, but it seems fair to expect the club to consider selling off some players who aren’t part of their long-term plans.

Stroman has one more year left on his contract, set to make $21MM next year, but has the ability to opt out and return to free agency after the current campaign. Given his strong results, it will be a fairly easy decision for him to trigger that opt-out and secure a larger guarantee on another multi-year deal. He has been quite candid about his desire to stick with the Cubs via a long-term extension, but the club reportedly doesn’t share his same enthusiasm to work out a new deal. All those factors seem to point to Stroman being traded in the coming days and he was placed in the #6 slot on MLBTR’s list of top deadline trade candidates.

The Rays could use another starter, given that they have dealt with multiple significant injuries to their rotation. Shane Baz had Tommy John surgery last year and was known to be a non-factor this year, but they have since lost Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs to season-ending surgeries with Josh Fleming seemingly set for a significant absence as well. They still have a solid front four in Shane McClanahan, Taj Bradley, Tyler Glasnow and Zach Eflin, but each of those pitchers except for Bradley has been on the IL this year, leading the club to deploy bullpen games at various points.

Getting another starter into the mix would strengthen the overall group for the postseason push, but acquiring a rental could be a logical move for the Rays. Each of their four current starters are still under contract or under club control for next year. Baz could rejoin the rotation going into 2024, with Springs and Rasmussen potentially coming back in the middle of the next campaign as well. Getting a short-term fix would require the club to send a lesser return the other way, compared to a pitcher with a longer window of control. The Rays have already been connected to impending free agents like Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Lance Lynn, the latter of whom has a club option for 2024.

Stroman would also fit the bill, given his ability to opt out of his deal this fall. His ground ball tendencies would also be a good fit for a Tampa club that generally has strong defense. The Rays collectively have 16 Defensive Runs Saved from the shortstop position, the best mark in the league. Their 10 Outs Above Average at that spot are second only to the Cubs. Their tallies at second and third base are a bit lower but still above average. Their first base marks are subpar, but it’s still a solid group overall.

It’s worth pointing out, however, that Stroman’s opt-out does complicate his trade candidacy slightly. As mentioned, he’s currently looking like a lock to exercise that opt-out in a few months, given his good numbers on the year. But there’s always the risk of that situation changing after a deal. If the Rays were to acquire Stroman and he then suffered some sort of injury that would carry into next year, perhaps he would decide against triggering that opt-out, instead just taking the $21MM that he already has in hand.

Some clubs might be fine with taking that risk, but the Rays are one of the lowest-spending clubs among contenders. A $21MM salary might be a drop in the bucket to some clubs — but not to Tampa Bay. Their highest-paid player this year is Eflin, who’s making $11MM. They also have a big spike coming up next year, with Glasnow’s salary set to jump from this year’s $5.35MM to next year’s $25MM, a big financial outlay they made in order to push his free agency back by one year.

Per Roster Resource, the Rays have already committed $74MM to next year’s club, just shy of this year’s $78MM payroll. That’s before even factoring in arbitration raises for players like Randy Arozarena, Harold Ramírez, Jason Adam and others. The Rays often find ways to save money in the offseason by trading players with significant salaries, but they are currently trending to have a larger payroll next year. Although Stroman is likely going to be opting out, the Rays would be taking on at least some risk of an extra $21MM being added to that equation.

Any team acquiring Stroman would be in a similar situation, but most would have a bit more financial wiggle room. He is still likely to generate plenty of interest regardless and has already been connected to the Astros and Blue Jays. The trade deadline is on August 1, less than two weeks away.

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