Trade Market Notes: Pitchers, Shields, Hamels, Papelbon, Reds
The much vaunted sellers market could soon favor buyers – at least for starting pitchers, observes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal figures GMs with players like Cole Hamels or Johnny Cueto should be motivated to act quickly. As he notes (tweet), Hamels and Cueto are already joined by Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake, Dan Haren, Mat Latos, and four Padres hurlers. Closer to the deadline, we could see Jeff Samardzija, Yovani Gallardo, and David Price join the trade block among others. If there is any point in the sellers’ favor, it’s that every club feels like it needs more pitching.
- Agents prefer for their star players to be traded, tweets Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. Players with expiring contracts become ineligible for a qualifying offer. As we’ve seen in recent seasons, clubs can be very deliberate about signing a top free agent with a qualifying offer attached. The bonus pool rules instituted in the last collective bargaining agreement ensure that some teams will carefully guard their access to young talent rather than ink an expensive veteran.
- A “rival evaluator” tells Buster Olney of ESPN (Insider only) that he expects the Padres to trade Shields. The source put the odds anywhere between 75 and 90 percent. Of course, that’s just the opinion of one anonymous source. Shields’ market is liable to be complicated, and I could see it extending into August.
- In other Shields-related news, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune thinks it could be a mistake to trade the veteran righty. While the Padres may desire to get out from under his back-loaded deal, it would send a confusing signal to the next class of free agents. For what it’s worth, I think this could be overthinking it. The Padres don’t have the same stigma as the Marlins. The Friars could easily market such a trade as comparable to the Red Sox dump of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford.
- Per Olney, multiple teams have engaged the Phillies regarding Hamels. Sources have also indicated that Jonathan Papelbon could be dealt very soon. Philadelphia has long been expected to dump pricey veterans at the deadline, but recent rumors have suggested the club could also stand pat until the offseason.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Hamels, Cueto, Kazmir, Gomez
The Dodgers, Cubs, Rangers, and Red Sox are among the clubs still interested in Cole Hamels, reports Ken Rosenthal in his latest video for FOX Sports. Boston is expected to scout Hamels’ start tomorrow, and we can assume other clubs will have a heavy presence as well. Talks with the Rangers aren’t dead, but Texas does expect other teams to make a better offer.
Interestingly, we’ve recently seen speculation that the Phillies could opt to keep Hamels past the July deadline. Other clubs wonder if uncertainty in the front office has hampered their ability to finalize a deal. As Rosenthal notes, Jonathan Papelbon should have been traded by now. Here’s more from Rosenthal:
- Health will affect the markets of Johnny Cueto and Scott Kazmir. Both hurlers have missed time with various ailments and will be free agents at the end of the season. It can be difficult to justify trading a talented prospect for 12 starts, especially when the player involved is at an increased risk to not make those starts.
- Short of an impressive streak in the second half, Pat Murphy is unlikely to manage the Padres next season. Rosenthal suggests that the culture change from Bud Black was too great. Murphy could join Craig Counsell‘s staff in Milwaukee if he is relieved of his duties.
- As we now know, the Astros are open to adding a bat at the trade deadline. One star they’ve scouted is Brewers outfielder Carlos Gomez. Houston prefers a right-handed hitter, but may target lefty swinging Gerardo Parra due to a lower acquisition price. The Astros are open to trade Jon Singleton.
Trade Notes: Hamels, Pitching, Mets, Johnson, Beede
Two weeks from this writing, the non-waiver trade deadline will be firmly in the rear-view mirror. Rumors pertaining to trades and actual trade activity should pick up substantially here over the coming 14 days, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports previews the deadline for all 30 clubs, examining each buyer’s biggest need, each seller’s greatest asset and what will determine the course of the teams that have yet to plot a course of action. Similarly, ESPN’s Buster Olney took a look at the biggest questions surrounding each of the 30 teams heading into the second half — many of which have revolve around trade deadline strategies (ESPN Insider subscription required).
General overviews aside, here’s the latest trade chatter from around the league…
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post is surprised by the number of executives he’s spoken to that feel the Phillies will not trade Cole Hamels this summer, barring a no-brainer offer (Twitter links). Sherman says that many within the industry feel that new Phillies president Andy MacPhail may wait until the Winter Meetings to shop Hamels, as he’ll by then be more comfortable with the scouts that are giving him advice and have input from a more functional analytics department.
- Newsday’s Marc Carig writes that while names like Justin Upton, Carlos Gomez and Jay Bruce would all have appeal to the Mets, each would also come with a steep prospect price. Such transactions aren’t commonplace for the Mets, Carig notes, but the addition of a versatile outfielder such as Will Venable or Gerardo Parra could help improve the club’s production at a lower cost. And, as ESPN’s Buster Olney notes (on Twitter), the Mets should be highly motivated to add pieces, as 17 of the team’s final 39 games come against a pair of selling clubs: the Phillies and Braves.
- Sherman also hears that the Dodgers, Astros, Royals and Blue Jays are the four teams that are most aggressively trying to add pitching at this juncture (Twitter link). The Royals and Blue Jays scouted the Reds, who are said to be ready to move both Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake, heavily before the break.
- Part of the reasoning behind the Braves‘ signings of right-hander Jason Frasor and left-hander Ross Detwiler is that the team wanted to add some veteran leadership to a bullpen that will likely soon be without Jim Johnson, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Johnson, in Bowman’s estimation, is very likely to be traded in the near future.
- Giants prospect Tyler Beede‘s name is in high demand in trade talks, manager Bruce Bochy tells Peter Gammons (Twitter link). Per Bochy, Beede’s name is the first one mentioned by opposing clubs in the majority of the Giants’ trade talks. San Francisco selected Beede with the No. 14 pick in the 2014 draft, and he has a 2.91 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 89 2/3 innings between High-A and Double-A in his first full pro season.
Heyman’s Latest: Dodgers/Hamels, Braves, Frazier, Price, Brewers, Upton
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports kicks off his weekly Inside Baseball column by reporting that the Dodgers have “quietly continued having dialogue with the Phillies” regarding Cole Hamels. The Dodgers are also giving serious consideration to the rental market and prioritizing Johnny Cueto over others among such targets. The Dodgers “appear determined” to land a top-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, writes Heyman, but most executives think they’ll hold onto top prospects Corey Seager and Julio Urias. The Dodgers have a deep farm system beyond that pairing (righty Jose De Leon has recently been ranked a Top 25 prospect by Baseball America and ESPN), and one exec tells Heyman that the Phillies’ asking price on Hamels has become “more reasonable” recently. The Dodgers feel that Greinke is a lock to opt out of his contract at the end of the season, and while they could possibly re-sign him by adding a year or two to the deal and upping his $24.5MM AAV, Hamels would provide insurance should Greinke sign elsewhere. Jeff Samardzija is also a consideration for the Dodgers, but while they like him, they consider him more of a No. 2/3 starter and don’t love him.
Some more highlights from Heyman’s article, though the synopsis won’t cover everything within the piece, so I’d highly recommend reading it in its entirety…
- The Braves will be deadline sellers, Heyman hears, with Jim Johnson, Juan Uribe and Cameron Maybin among the players that will be available to interested teams. Chris Johnson, too, continues to be available, but there are no takers for his contract, which Atlanta has aggressively tried to move in the past.
- With the Reds expected to trade so many veterans to other clubs, many in the industry expect the team to make a run at extending Todd Frazier beyond his current two-year deal, Heyman writes. (Frazier has one more year of arbitration following his current pact.) Jeff Todd and I have discussed Frazier’s situation on the MLBTR Podcast in the past (and will do so again this afternoon), and I’ve personally taken the stance that given the significant commitments to Joey Votto and Homer Bailey, the Reds could have a difficult time affording Frazier, whose 2014-15 breakout has hugely inflated his price tag. Given the lack of impact bats on the trade market, Frazier would net a king’s ransom and could rapidly expedite the rebuilding process, though the PR hit of trading him with so much control and on the heels of a Home Run Derby victory would of course be significant.
- In other Reds news, Heyman hears Mike Leake‘s ground-ball tendencies are appealing to AL East clubs, and he’s drawn interest from the Blue Jays, Orioles and Red Sox in addition to the Royals, Dodgers, Rangers, Cubs and Giants. Manny Parra and Marlon Byrd are both “likely to go” as well.
- Asked about the possibility of signing with the Cubs this offseason due to his relationship with skipper Joe Maddon, Tigers ace David Price replied, “Wherever I play baseball next year it’s not going to be because of a manager.”
- The Astros are interested in both Cueto and Leake, and Houston seems willing to deal from its glut of MLB-ready outfield prospects, including Domingo Santana and Preston Tucker. (Previous reports have indicated they’re reluctant to part with Brett Phillips, however, who may be the best among the outfield bunch.)
- The Brewers are now showing a willingness to trade both Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura, Heyman hears. Though it was previously believed they were reluctant to move Segura, the emergence of Orlando Arcia (the younger brother of the Twins’ Oswaldo Arcia) may have changed Milwaukee’s thinking. However, Arcia himself is also drawing a huge amount of trade interest, and the Padres have called to express interest. One NL exec called him the best player he’s seen in the minors this year, while another comped him to Francisco Lindor, but said Arcia is better. Regarding Segura, Heyman hears that the Mets dislike his free-swinging approach.
- The Twins aren’t closed off to the idea of re-acquiring Gomez from the Brewers, but their primary focus at this point is bullpen help.
- The Mets are aiming high in their pursuit of an outfield bat and have both Gomez and Justin Upton on their radar. They’re not likely to add Aramis Ramirez from the Brewers unless they receive bad news on the prognosis of David Wright. They also have little interest in swinging a deal for Uribe.
- Padres officials insist that they haven’t determined their course of action heading into the deadline, but Heyman writes that free-agents-to-be such as Upton, Ian Kennedy, Joaquin Benoit and Will Venable could be traded regardless. James Shields‘ backloaded contract limits his value, but one GM felt Benoit has “big value” and Heyman notes that Craig Kimbrel would be in huge demand as well, should the Padres try to recoup some value from that deal.
- Cueto, Samardzija and Leake are atop the Blue Jays‘ wish list, and the team was also in talks with the Braves regarding Jason Grilli prior to his season-ending injury. A top starting pitcher is Toronto’s top priority at this point, says Heyman. He also adds that there’s no evidence to suggest that manager John Gibbons is on the hot seat.
Rangers Unlikely To Land Cole Hamels
Rumors connecting the Rangers to Phillies ace Cole Hamels have been circulating for months, dating back to Yu Darvish‘s Tommy John surgery. However, a club source tells MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan that such an acquisition is improbable. “If we were going to do that trade, we would have already done it by now,” said Sullivan’s source. There’s currently “no traction” between the two clubs, Sullivan hears.
Similarly, when asked about the team’s approach to buying or selling at this year’s deadline, GM Jon Daniels told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram’s Jeff Wilson: “…I don’t think you’re going to see us on either extreme end. My mind-set is always wanting to add to the club and always wanting to win, but you’ve got to pay attention to the realities of the standings.”
The Rangers, according to Sullivan, dislike Hamels’ contract as well as the asking price in terms of prospects. Previous reports linking the two sides had noted that Philadelphia covets catching prospect Jorge Alfaro and outfield prospect Nomar Mazara, though Mazara’s stock, in particular, has risen in 2015. The 20-year-old is slashing .285/.361/.446 with 10 homers at Double-A in 2015, despite being quite young for the level. That strong play landed him 34th on Baseball America’s midseason Top 50 prospects list and as high as sixth on Keith Law’s new list a ESPN.com.
Two players who very well could become available, however, are Wandy Rodriguez and Carlos Corporan, Sullivan reports. Texas is open to moving Corporan and pairing Tomas Telis with Robinson Chirinos behind the dish. As for Rodriguez, multiple teams have told the Rangers that they consider the veteran lefty a fallback option if they’re unable to secure other targets in trades.
The fate of Yovani Gallardo, Sullivan writes, will be determined closer to the trade deadline. The Rangers won’t want to move him if they’re still in the hunt for the division title, but poor performances in pre-deadline matchups against the Angels and Astros could cause him to become available.
If Texas performs well in those two intra-division series, however, it does remain possible that Daniels and his staff will make some incremental moves to bolster the roster. Wilson lists a right-handed bat to balance out the lineup (noting that someone of Justin Upton‘s caliber simply is not realistic) as well as another reliable reliever to pair with closer Shawn Tolleson and solid rookie setup man Keone Kela. Daniels himself mentioned earlier this week that the Rangers would pursue such targets.
Amaro On Papelbon, Harang, Hamels, Utley
Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. discussed his team’s trade deadline situation in an appearance on the WIP Morning Show (relayed by CSNPhilly.com’s Corey Seidman). Broadly, Amaro said that he has had “great dialogue with a lot of clubs on several fronts” and expressed confidence in “get[ting] some things done.”
The first and most obvious topic of conversation was closer Jonathan Papelbon, who yesterday aired his view that Philadelphia needs to make a decision on dealing him. Amaro praised the veteran reliever as a competitor and excellent pitcher, but said that “he doesn’t know anything about the front office.”
Regarding Papelbon’s market, Amaro indicated that he sees plenty of opportunity to strike a trade. “There’s live discussions going on right now regarding Pap,” said Amaro. “I do believe that there’s enough of a market that we can probably get something done. But again, I don’t necessarily believe in ‘probably.’ … There’s a lot of clubs that are interested in a lot of our players and we have to sort through it and make the right deals.”
In the course of addressing Papelbon’s comments, which touched upon the decisionmaking process of the front office’s highest levels, Amaro said that there was internal clarity about how deadline decisions would be handled. Namely, current president Pat Gillick holds final authority, with incoming replacement Andy MacPhail serving more of an advisory function at present.
“I’m the GM and Pat is my boss,” Amaro explained. “As in all these deals, particularly ones that are as complicated and have so much money involved, these are all discussions that we’ve had. … It’s something that’s discussed, not just with me, but also with my boss. And that’s the same structure that we have right now. Right now, Andy is part of the decision-making process, but only in so much that he’s an observer and someone who’s going to give us his opinion. Really, Pat is the one who ultimately will make the ultimate decisions.”
Even as he gave indications that Papelbon could indeed be on the move, as is widely expected, Amaro downplayed the possibility of receiving value for starter Aaron Harang. “As far as Aaron Harang is concerned,” said Amaro, “he had a foot problem and he’s dealing with an injury so you can’t really trade a guy that’s got an injury. Frankly, there was no real market for him prior to him getting injured.”
Of course, Philly’s biggest trade chip remains lefty Cole Hamels. Amaro said he was not concerned with the fact that the staff ace had suffered a rough outing in his most recent start, saying that “people know what he is.”
The embattled Phillies GM also touched upon his recent comments indicating that long-time second baseman Chase Utley has lost his starting role. Amaro said he did not regret “being straight and honest” on the topic, and added that he expects the veteran to “get opportunities to play” once he returns to health. As to whether there was any possibility of Utley calling it quits, Amaro made his own view clear: “No, he’s absolutely, unequivocally not going to [retire]. He’s got plenty in the tank left.”
Daniels: Rangers Targeting Bullpen Upgrades, Right-Handed Bat
With the non-waiver trade deadline 18 days away and the Rangers currently sitting at 42-46 — six games back from the Angels in the AL West — GM Jon Daniels is on the lookout for additions to his bullpen and a right-handed bat, writes MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan.
“We’ve told clubs we would like to help out our bullpen a little bit, and add the right complementary right-handed bat,” said Daniels, whose team spent roughly five weeks above the .500 mark from late May to June before enduring a 2-8 skid in July. That success has the Rangers looking at short-term additions.
The Rangers’ collective bullpen ERA of 4.38 is trailed only by the Braves (4.40) and Rockies (4.52) this season. Texas recently took the rather surprising step of designating former closer and AL Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz for assignment, though looking at Feliz strictly from a performance standpoint, he’s undergone a pronounced decline.
Texas has received excellent production from new closer Shawn Tolleson and rookie setup man Keone Kela, while lefty Sam Freeman has been solid through 18 2/3 innings as well. A second lefty would seem to be a reasonable target for the Rangers, as Alex Claudio has been homer-prone and unable to stick in the Majors. Fellow southpaw Ross Detwiler was designated for assignment over the weekend.
From a speculative standpoint, a pair of players that recently met that same DFA fate could, on some level, make some sense for the Rangers, given Daniels’ stated needs. Old friend Jason Frasor, who excelled with the Rangers for a season and a half from 2013-14, was designated by the Royals last week. (Frasor’s control has been spotty at best, however.) Delmon Young could serve as the type of “complementary” right-handed bat that the Rangers seek. Baltimore designated the 29-year-old for assignment two weeks ago and ultimately released him after being unable to find a trade partner. The Rangers could also take a shot on Brandon League (recently DFA by the Dodgers) or Joba Chamberlain (released by the Tigers), though either would be more of a reclamation project than an immediate answer to the club’s present needs.
A large reason that the team is seeking a right-handed bat is due to an imbalance in the lineup and the upper minors. Daniels notes that it’s both a short- and long-term goal to balance out his lineup. Currently, the Rangers have a glut of left-handed bats, including Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo, Josh Hamilton, Mitch Moreland, Rougned Odor and Leonys Martin. Daniels mentions to Sullivan that even at the prospect level, many of the club’s top prospects — presumably referring to third baseman Joey Gallo and outfielders Nomar Mazara and Nick Williams — are all lefty bats as well.
Looking at the bigger picture, Daniels remains open to adding rotation pieces that are controlled beyond the 2015 season as well, Sullivan writes. Yovani Gallardo has been the team’s most consistent pitcher in 2015, but he’s a free agent at season’s end, as are Colby Lewis and Wandy Rodriguez. Both Matt Harrison and Derek Holland have murky futures due to injuries, and ace Yu Darvish, of course, is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Young lefty Martin Perez is also on the mend from Tommy John, though the club hopes to have him back shortly after the All-Star break.
Talk of adding pieces beyond the 2015 season will likely trigger more Cole Hamels speculation, but Sullivan writes that the Rangers “aren’t enamored with” taking on a lefty that is owed $22.5MM on an annual basis. Nor, Sullivan writes, is the team willing to give up the number of prospects currently being sought by the Phillies.
East Notes: Gordon, Orioles, Hamels, Clippard
The Marlins will be without All-Star second baseman Dee Gordon for at least two weeks, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Gordon dislocated his thumb sliding headfirst into first base. There was no ligament damage or broken bones per Rosenthal. Gordon will be replaced on the All-Star roster by Troy Tulowitzki. Fellow Rockie DJ LeMahieu will now start for the NL All Stars.
Here’s more from the East divisions:
- Miami is weighing trades ahead of the deadline, writes Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. The club is 10.5 games back in the NL East and 14 games below .500. They will probably have to get hot in the next couple weeks to change the current plan. As MLBTR readers are well aware, pending free agents Mat Latos and Dan Haren are trade candidates. The Marlins have also received interest in former closer Steve Cishek and swing man Brad Hand.
- The Orioles could be primed for a quiet trade deadline, writes Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun. The club already has a host of impending free agents. It could be ill-advised to deal controllable assets like they did last season. Dan Duquette dealt Eduardo Rodriguez for Andrew Miller, a trade he may now regret given Rodriguez’s success in Boston. Additionally, top prospects Dylan Bundy and Hunter Harvey are sidelined with injuries. Mike Wright showed some promise but ultimately struggled in two stints with the club.
- It’s imperative that the Phillies trade Cole Hamels before the end of the month, opines Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer. While the club could find it easier to swap Jonathan Papelbon or Ryan Howard over the offseason, a robust group of free agent starters will hurt Hamels’ value in the winter. In my opinion, it would be quite shocking if the Phillies held Hamels for the rest of the season. If they did fail to find a deal to their liking, they could position Hamels as a cost effective alternative to aces like Johnny Cueto and David Price.
- Phillies GM Ruben Amaro is excited about the state of the farm system, writes Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. “I would put our farm system up against anybody’s,” said Amaro. He specifically mentioned Aaron Nola and Aaron Altherr, both of whom are finding success at the Triple-A level. It’s widely assumed that Nola will soon join the club. Trades could also open the door for Altherr. Nola is not on the 40-man roster, but Altherr already has a spot.
- The Yankees and Mets should consider adding Athletics closer Tyler Clippard, suggests Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. Even though neither club technically needs relief help, Martino references the Royals dominant trio of relievers from last October. Their ability to shorten the game is critical in October. Particularly with the Yankees, a trio of Clippard, Dellin Betances, and Miller would be intimidating.
Rosenthal On Padres, Rockies, Rollins, Rangers
Here’s the latest from Ken Rosenthal, via a video at FOX Sports:
- The Cubs and Astros would make sense as teams who could pursue the Padres‘ starting pitching, Rosenthal suggests. The Padres would likely have interest in the Cubs’ collection of young middle infielders, and Astros manager A.J. Hinch used to work for the Padres.
- The Rockies are open to trading Troy Tulowitzki but haven’t been aggressive in trying to do so, Rosenthal says. Nonetheless, the Rockies could have a huge impact as sellers if they chose, given that they have Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, John Axford and LaTroy Hawkins.
- The Dodgers plan to give Jimmy Rollins “a long leash.” Rollins hasn’t hit well this year, but he’s been better this month (.286/.333/.464). Top prospect Corey Seager isn’t exceptional defensively, and if they went with him as a full-time starter, they’d likely feel they had to deal or release Rollins out of respect. That would leave them in a tough spot if Seager didn’t play well.
- The Rangers could both sell and buy at the deadline, perhaps dealing Yovani Gallardo but acquiring fellow veteran starting pitcher Cole Hamels, who could then join Texas’ rotation for the next several years. They could also pursue less of a headline-grabbing route by simply pursuing relievers, as well as a hitter they could use against left-handed pitching.
Heyman On Grilli, D-backs, Marlins, Dodgers
Here are the highlights from Jon Heyman’s massive new Inside Baseball article for CBS Sports. Be sure to check out Heyman on the latest edition of the MLBTR Podcast.
- The Braves have had “serious talks” about dealing closer Jason Grilli to a contender, Heyman writes, with the Blue Jays and Dodgers among the teams that make the most sense.
- The Diamondbacks have made infielder Aaron Hill and pitchers Jeremy Hellickson and Addison Reed available in trades, and all three players have attracted at least some interest.
- The Marlins could trade starter Dan Haren for the right return. On paper, the Dodgers would seem to make sense, but that seems unlikely, since the Dodgers treated Haren basically as a throw-in in the Dee Gordon trade in the offseason. The Dodgers would also prefer to find a starter they could use in the playoffs, and Haren likely doesn’t qualify.
- Dodgers shortstop Jimmy Rollins could become available in a trade as top prospect Corey Seager continues to demonstrate he’s ready for the big leagues.
- The Dodgers, Blue Jays, Nationals and perhaps other teams had scouts on hand as Mariners starter Hisashi Iwakuma returned from a lat injury this week. Iwakuma could be a trade candidate, but Heyman notes that giving up four homers to the Tigers probably didn’t exactly increase his value.
- Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez still seems set on retiring after the season, despite agent Paul Kinzer’s efforts to get him to continue.
- The Padres have been scouting the Mets lately, leading to speculation that the Mets could be trying to trade for Justin Upton.
- The Phillies are “not bending” in their demands for Cole Hamels, and his limited no-trade clause remains an obstacle.
- The Giants have had talks with free agent infielder Everth Cabrera. The Orioles released Cabrera last month. He would provide depth for San Francisco.