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Dallas Keuchel

Dallas Keuchel Rumors: 6/4/19

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4:33pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a lengthy look at the situation, examining the possible reasons that Keuchel has yet to strike up a deal. As Sherman points out, even the prorated version of the $17.9MM qualifying offer value checks in close to $11.5MM, and few teams have that type of money budgeted this time of year. The Braves, for instance, are “uncomfortable” with that price point, per Sherman, while the Yankees are unlikely to exceed it, George A. King III of the New York Post writes.

Previous struggles from players who waited into the season to sign (e.g. Kendrys Morales, Greg Holland) have created concerns over what to expect from Keuchel. As a result, some clubs would prefer a lower base salary with per-start incentives — similar to the one Gio Gonzalez initially signed with the Yankees in Spring Training — but Keuchel and Boras would obviously prefer a full guarantee. Sherman adds that Keuchel’s camp has floated some multi-year scenarios with an opt-out after the 2019 season, but a straight one-year pact still seems likely.

8:55am: With draft compensation no longer a factor, a signing could come at any time for free agent starter Dallas Keuchel. As always, we’ll be on top of the latest developments in the market here at MLBTR.

We heard yesterday that the Yankees and Braves were among the likeliest possible landing spots for Keuchel, with a few other teams also among those with ongoing interest. Now, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter) takes things a bit further by labeling the New York and Atlanta organizations the favorites for the veteran southpaw.

Another source labels the Yankees the true favorites, Feinsand tweets. Braves beat reporters, meanwhile, have poured cold water on the idea of a move for Keuchel. (Links to Twitter.) It’s impossible to know when and how a signing will come together, but Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that there’s a sense resolution could come “relatively soon.”

As things stand, says Feinsand, the Yankees and Braves “are believed to be in the same area with their offers.” No doubt Keuchel and agent Scott Boras are hopeful that one of these or another team will create some separation in the financial department.

There has long been some uncertainty regarding Keuchel’s contractual demands and outlook. There’s little question he has backed down from any opening asking price, but there have been varying indications as to whether he’d accept (or even seek) a contract that wraps up at season’s end. If he’s only looking for a half-year arrangement, Keuchel will surely want it to be for a hefty rate of pay. But he’d assuredly also consider other factors with an eye already on a return to the open market.

Even if the Yanks and Braves are indeed “favorites” at the moment, it’s worth remembering that such a status means relatively little until the ink hits the paper. Other organizations are surely also engaged with Boras — the Cardinals, Rays, Brewers, and Twins have all been cited of late — and all are no doubt also canvassing the early trade market possibilities.

Latest On Dallas Keuchel

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Dallas Keuchel’s market, like that of fellow free agent Craig Kimbrel, figures to accelerate in the coming days now that he’s no longer tied to draft-pick compensation. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Yankees, Cardinals and Braves are among the favorites to land Keuchel — though as of yesterday, Keuchel and the Yankees were still a ways apart in terms of asking price. Earlier this morning, the Twins were also reported to have had recent talks with Keuchel’s agent, Scott Boras.

The rationale behind the Yankees’ interest in Keuchel isn’t difficult to see. Luis Severino has yet to pitch in 2019, primarily due to a lat strain that will likely sideline him into next month. Both James Paxton and CC Sabathia have spent time on the injured list, and Domingo German figures to be on some type of innings limit after throwing only 94 innings in 2018 between the Majors and minors (and 123 1/3 frames the year prior). Signing Keuchel would come with notable luxury ramifications for the Yankees, who’d pay a 32 percent tax on any dollar spent on him (per Jason Martinez’s luxury projections at Roster Resource).

The Cardinals, too, have seen some rotation issues pop up. Carlos Martinez has been moved to the bullpen after spending the beginning of the season on the injured list, while free-agent-to-be Michael Wacha has also been moved to a relief following an awful start to the year. Rookie Genesis Cabrera is getting his first look at the MLB level, but the Cards are in 1.5 games back in the tightly contested National League Central — a division where the difference between first place and fifth place is a mere span of 6.5 games at the moment.

Keuchel’s shedding of draft pick compensation matters less to the Astros than to others, since they were never in line to forfeit one of their picks to retain him and have known for a while they wouldn’t end up scoring a compensatory pick. But ESPN’s Buster Olney suggests (subscription required) that there may yet be a gap between what Houston is willing to offer and what Keuchel is seeking. The Astros offered Keuchel a one-year deal worth about $15MM early in Spring Training when he was still seeking a multi-year deal, according to Olney. Even though his asking price has come down since that point, he’s still reported to be seeking a one-year deal worth the $17.9MM value of the qualifying offer he rejected last November. Any such sum would be prorated over the course of the remainder of the season.

Twins Have Held Discussions With Craig Kimbrel, Dallas Keuchel

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The Twins have shown interest in both Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel, reports La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. The organization is “believed” to hold more interest in Kimbrel than in Keuchel at the moment, but the Twins have spoken with both players’ representatives about potential deals.

Once the clock struck midnight last night, the draft-pick compensation tied to both pitchers expired, meaning the Twins (or any other club) can now sign either pitcher without forfeiting any future draft selections or international spending allocations. As we noted late last week, Minnesota was one of the most logical landing spots for Kimbrel, and the fact that the Twins took the final three games of a four-game road set against the Rays should only serve to further embolden the front office.

Twins relievers rank 20th in the Majors with a 4.60 ERA in 2019, and while their 4.05 FIP (ninth-best) and 4.25 xFIP (11th) paint a more optimistic pitcher, the relief corps is top-heavy. Lefty Taylor Rogers has continued last year’s summer breakout with a brilliant start to the season, while Trevor May and 30-year-old rookie Ryne Harper have each been effective as well. Offseason signee Blake Parker has posted a strong 2.61 ERA, but his K/BB numbers and velocity have gone in the wrong direction while fielding-independent metrics forecast substantial regression. Righties Matt Magill, Tyler Duffey and Mike Morin have all been effective in smaller samples, with Magill and Duffey in particular posting encouraging strikeout numbers.

But the Twins have cycled through numerous options in the final couple spots of their ’pen, receiving poor results from Chase De Jong, Andrew Vasquez, Zack Littell, Austin Adams, Adalberto Mejia and Trevor Hildenberger. High hopes were held for former top prospect Fernando Romero as he moved from a starting role to the ’pen, but he’s struggled in both the Majors and in 19 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball. Adding Kimbrel would ideally help slow that revolving door for the final couple of bullpen spots and deepen the team’s relief mix for what looks like an increasingly likely ALDS run.

There’s certainly an argument to be made in favor of signing Keuchel, as well. The Twins have received terrific results from their top four starters, as each of Jake Odorizzi, Jose Berrios, Martin Perez and Kyle Gibson  have posted ERAs and FIPs south of 4.00. Michael Pineda has struggled as the fifth starter in his return from Tommy John surgery and is currently on the injured list. He’ll need to have his innings limited anyhow, and moving him to the bullpen could net some interesting results. He’s held opponents to a .237/.283/.419 line the first time through the order and would likely see his 92.1 mph average fastball play up in shorter stints. Keuchel isn’t the ace he was when he won the AL Cy Young Award in 2015, but he’d be an upgrade over Pineda and, if Pineda takes to a bullpen role, could help to solidify both the starting pitching and relief pitching for the Twins.

It’s not a foregone conclusion that the Twins will actually sign either pitcher, but back in January, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine spoke of supplementing the team’s core when its window was “wide open.” With an 11.5-game lead in the American League Central and a 94 percent chance to take the division, per the odds at both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus, that would certainly appear to describe the current situation in Minnesota.

From a payroll vantage point, the Twins opened the 2018 season with a payroll just under $129MM but trimmed close to $10MM off that sum to begin the 2019 season. Signing either Kimbrel or Keuchel would quite likely push the Twins into franchise-record payroll territory, though attendance at Target Field has unsurprisingly been on the rise as the Twins have widened their division lead over the past month. There’s no indication that the team is facing any payroll constrictions, and Levine said in recent MLB Network appearance with Chris Russo (video link) that owner Jim Pohlad is “completely supportive of augmenting this team” over the course of the summer.

Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel No Longer Attached To Draft Pick Compensation

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It is officially draft day in Major League Baseball, and as the clock has struck midnight on the east coast, it also means that teams can sign free agents who rejected the qualifying offer without having to surrender the draft pick compensation usually attached to QO picks.  Thus, after months of speculation, Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel have been one of their chief obstacles to a new contract fall by the wayside.

While several players have seen their free agent markets impacted by the qualifying offer over the QO’s seven offseasons of existence, Keuchel and Kimbrel join Kendrys Morales as the only players to escape the qualifying offer’s draft penalties by simply waiting out the draft itself to sign new contracts.  Stephen Drew’s free agent visit also extended into the 2014 season, though he ultimately re-signed with the Red Sox before the draft.

Of course, waiting this long to sign has the obvious drawback of inactivity.  The two pitchers have now given up over two months of their careers and a proper Spring Training camp, though Keuchel and Kimbrel have both been working in preparation to eventually get on the field, Keuchel and Kimbrel will have to ramp up their activity without the benefit of a proper Spring Training camp.  According to Keuchel’s agent Scott Boras, the southpaw will be ready to join his new team about a week after signing, which seems like a somewhat optimistic projection.  It’s worth noting that Morales and Drew both struggled badly in their abbreviated 2014 seasons, and we’ve seen several other examples (i.e. Greg Holland last season) of how players with QO-induced extended layoffs can struggle without the benefit of a proper offseason.

As a reminder, here is what each team would have had to give up in terms of compensation had they signed Keuchel or Kimbrel at any point in the last seven months.  The large majority of teams would have had to give up just one draft selection (either their second-highest or third-highest pick), and the 12 clubs who didn’t exceed the luxury tax or receive revenue-sharing payments would have also had to surrender $500K in international bonus pool money.  The Nationals and Red Sox were the only two teams who did surpass the luxury tax threshold in 2018, and thus would have had to give up their second- and fifth-highest picks plus $1MM in international bonus pool money.  (This only applies to Boston in regards to Keuchel, as the Sox obviously could have re-signed Kimbrel with no penalty since he was most recently on their team.)

The Red Sox and Astros are further impacted, as the two clubs will now no longer receive the extra picks that would have been owed to them had Kimbrel and Keuchel indeed signed elsewhere.  Since they paid into the luxury tax, the Red Sox would have only received a pick between the fourth and fifth rounds, while Houston would have received a pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round.  While the current draft order would have been altered in this scenario depending on what team gave up their pick to sign Keuchel, the Astros would have had either the 78th or 79th overall pick if Keuchel had indeed landed on another team.

Rather than discussing how Keuchel would impact a new rotation, or how Kimbrel would shore up the back of a contending team’s bullpen, the two pitchers instead became the poster children for the increasing lack of action in baseball’s free agent market.  With modern front offices putting so much value on possessing a young player (either a draft pick or an international signing) through six or as many as seven seasons pre-free agency, as well as an increased wariness in how veteran players decline in their 30’s, teams are simply loathe to give up draft capital and/or spend money on established free agents, even noted stars like Keuchel and Kimbrel.

In fairness to teams, the qualifying offer draft compensation wasn’t the only reason both pitchers are still available as the calendar turned to June.  There were legitimate baseball reasons to hold off on spending huge money on either player — Keuchel’s grounder-heavy arsenal and lack of a power fastball might not age well, while Kimbrel looked shaky down the stretch and throughout Boston’s postseason run in 2018.

Keuchel and Boras were looking for at least a five-year contract, while Kimbrel entered the offseason hoping for what would have been a record-setting $100MM+ contract for a closer.  Both those sky-high initial asking prices have since been lowered, as Kimbrel was said to be looking for a three-year deal in early April, while Kimbrel was reportedly open to a one-year contract worth more than the value of the $17.9MM qualifying offer he turned down from Houston.  MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, however, notes that such a prorated one-year offer isn’t being considered by either Keuchel or Kimbrel, as “both would be signed” if they were willing to settle for such contracts.

With the draft pick hurdle now cleared and over a third of the season gone, it remains to be seen exactly what type of contracts Keuchel and Kimbrel will end up signing.  A one-year pact would have allowed either pitcher to test free agency again this winter without the qualifying offer, though that scenario might not be appealing if the shortened season does lead to a downturn in performance.  At the same time, it’s rather hard to imagine teams extended multi-year guarantees given the circumstances.

As odd as it sounds after seven months of inaction, but Keuchel and Kimbrel now aim to be hot commodities for a wide range of teams looking for rotation or bullpen help.  The Braves, Brewers, and Rays have each had interest in both pitchers, with Atlanta, St. Louis and the Yankees considered “favorites” for Keuchel, as per Heyman, and such teams as the Mets, Diamondbacks, and Twins have also been mentioned as possible candidates to sign Keuchel.  For Kimbrel, the Phillies and Cubs are known to have some level of interest in the closer.  A signing could some relatively quickly, or Keuchel and Kimbrel may still take a bit more time to properly sort through the offers coming their way.

NL West Notes: Posey, Blackmon, Davis, Padres

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Buster Posey left Saturday’s game after suffering a hamstring injury while running out a ground ball.  The Giants called up catcher Aramis Garcia for today’s game while Posey didn’t play, though manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including MLB.com’s Maria Guardado) that Posey’s sore hamstring isn’t thought to be too serious.  “It’s hard to go into a game with one catcher.  Could Buster go back there? Probably, but I think we’d put him at risk to make it worse…This makes sense right now for a day to see how Buster’s doing,” Bochy said.  “It gives us some time. After the day off in New York, we’ll see if he’s available to go.”  Posey is hitting just .253/.311/.387 through 168 plate appearances, and is on pace for the weakest hitting season of his ten full seasons in the big leagues.  The longtime Giants star has been swinging the bat a bit better since returning from a brief stint on the concussion IL earlier this month, so Posey and the team are obviously hoping his hamstring problem won’t again put him on the sidelines.

Here’s some more from around the NL West…

  • Charlie Blackmon is eligible to come off the IL on Tuesday, though Rockies manager Bud Black told reporters (including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post) that Blackmon will remain out of action longer than the 10-day minimum.  Blackmon took batting practice and shagged some fly balls on Sunday, though he might still need a rehab stint in the minors.  Blackmon was hitting .300/.356/.565 at the time of his injury, though the Rockies have surprisingly not missed his bat — Colorado has a 9-1 record in Blackmon’s absence.  “Now that they’ve got me out of there, we’re taking off,” the outfielder joked.
  • In other Rockies injury news, Black said closer Wade Davis could also pitch in a minor league rehab game or a simulated game before returning to the active roster.  Davis threw a bullpen session today, so the right-hander looks to on pace for a relatively quick recovery from a left oblique strain that IL’ed him on May 22.
  • Padres general manager A.J. Preller spoke to reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) today about how the front office will turn its focus to the deadline once the draft is passed.  With the Padres still in the wild card mix, this could mark the first time in Preller’s tenure that the club will be buyers rather than sellers in July, though Preller stressed that the team isn’t planning an all-in push.  “This year we can look at going a lot of different routes….But the most important thing we’ve talked about is it’s still going to be looking toward the long term and looking toward building for the next five years and nothing that will sacrifice that over the next five weeks or so,” the GM said.  San Diego has been linked to a wide array of starting pitchers over the last several months, though “there appears to be increasing pessimism the Padres will sign free agent Dallas Keuchel,” Acee writes, since the Padres have young starters for their rotation and the club would have to outbid several other teams for Keuchel’s services.

Boras: Dallas Keuchel Will Be Ready Quickly

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Free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel hasn’t pitched in a major league game since last October and didn’t participate in spring training. As a result, there’s plenty of concern over how fast Keuchel will be ready to join a team when he ends his months-long stay on the open market and signs. But clubs shouldn’t worry about Keuchel’s preparedness, according to agent Scott Boras, who told Jon Morosi of MLB.com on Thursday that his client could be good to pitch within approximately a week of signing.

Keuchel has been throwing a 95- to 104-pitch sim game every five days to stay in shape, Boras said. We’ve heard that before (links here), but the potential one-week time frame is a new development. However, it’s likely worth taking with a grain of salt. For one, it’s not unusual for Boras to publicly talk up a client. Beyond that, it would be reasonable for Keuchel’s next employer to prefer for the 31-year-old to embark on a short minor league tuneup. Doing so would give Keuchel an opportunity to pitch in a real game (or games) before he potentially impacts a major league pennant race.

Keuchel has garnered plenty of big-game experience, including with the World Series-winning Astros in 2017, and carries a tremendous regular-season track record going back to his 2014 breakout. Nevertheless, the 2015 AL Cy Young winner hasn’t been able to find a team since free agency opened last Oct. 29. Free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel is in the same boat, but it’s one that figures to finally reach shore soon.

After midnight on June 2, the day before the draft begins, teams will be able to sign Keuchel or Kimbrel without having to pay anything other than money. Clubs would have to surrender draft compensation before then, which has helped lead to this impasse between MLB and the two high-profile free agents.

Boras On Market For Dallas Keuchel

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Agent Scott Boras discussed the ongoing free agency of veteran lefty Dallas Keuchel today in an interview with MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (audio via Twitter). Keuchel is not expected to sign until after midnight on June 2nd, after which time he will be free of draft compensation.

It has emerged lately that Keuchel has thrown multiple simulated games, both to prepare himself for a quick reentry to the majors and to offer an opportunity for interested teams to get a look. Boras suggests there has been no shortage of interest from pro scouts. As he put it, “we had so many scouts show up we had to open up the hot dog stand.”

When they weren’t lined up for ballpark delicacies courtesy of the Boras Corporation, the scouts were taking a hard look at a 31-year-old hurler who worked 204 2/3 innings of 3.74 ERA ball last year but hasn’t pitched competitively in 2019. The indication has been that Keuchel will be willing to ink a one-year deal, but he’s understandably interested in a premium salary.

Boras didn’t give up any details, but he certainly left the sense that he’s not concerned with his client’s market positioning after giving such extensive live looks to scouts. “Dallas is going to certainly have a level of interest and demand,” says Boras. The outspoken agent didn’t miss an opportunity to shred the qualifying offer system. The fact that Keuchel is still on the open market, he says, “just shows you how teams value draft picks … they’re worth a lot of money.”

Yankees Notes: Keuchel, Paxton, Betances, Judge

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The Yankees sent a top evaluator to watch free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel throw a sim game in Newport Beach, Calif., on Sunday, Erik Boland of Newsday reports. That’s not necessarily an indication Keuchel is destined to land in the Bronx once his months-long trek to the open market ends, though. Watching Keuchel may have simply been a case of the team doing its due diligence, as Boland notes. Regardless, the 31-year-old Keuchel has been throwing sim games roughly every five days in hopes of staying in shape for whichever club signs him. As a result, Keuchel’s “not too far away from where he was at the end of last season,” Bryan Hoch of MLB.com tweets.

  • New York’s rotation is about to benefit from a different established southpaw, James Paxton, who manager Aaron Boone said could come off the injured list Wednesday (via Boland). Paxton has been on the shelf since May 5 with a left knee injury, thus halting a terrific first season in New York. The former Mariner opened 2019 in spectacular fashion before going on the IL, tossing 37 2/3 innings of 3.11 ERA/2.50 FIP ball with 12.42 K/9 against 3.11 BB/9.
  • In further positive news for the Yankees’ pitching staff, reliever Dellin Betances will throw off a mound Monday for the first time in his rehab process, per Boone (via Hoch). Betances hasn’t pitched at all this season because of a bone spur in his right shoulder. With late-game hurlers Adam Ottavino, Zach Britton and Tommy Kahnle bridging the gap to closer Aroldis Chapman, the Yankees’ bullpen has gotten along fine without Betances. But Betances, a four-time All-Star, has long been the club’s go-to setup man and one of the game’s premier relievers. He’ll be a key summer reinforcement for the Yankees if his recovery stays on course.
  • Speaking of reinforcements, right fielder Aaron Judge – out since April 21 – is making progress as he works back from a left oblique strain, Hoch relays. “I’m feeling really good,” Judge told Meredith Marakovits of the YES Network on Sunday. “We’re progressing the way we want to, and it’s a good sign getting a chance to get on the field again and throw a little bit. It feels good to be back — sort of.” The slugger still hasn’t received clearance to swing a bat, but he’s hopeful that will change early this week. Even though Judge is the Yankees’ leading position player, they’ve managed to rip off 24 wins in 32 games without him or fellow injured superstar corner outfielder Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup. Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier, Cameron Maybin and Mike Tauchman (who’s currently in the minors) have held down the fort since Judge and Stanton have been laid up.

Braves Interested In Craig Kimbrel, Dallas Keuchel

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Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos “made it clear” Sunday that they have legitimate interest in free-agent pitchers Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel, according to Jim Bowden of SiriusXM. Unsurprisingly, though, the Braves don’t seem inclined to sign Kimbrel or Keuchel until the June 3 draft, at which point a team would not have to surrender a pick for either of the two qualifying offer recipients.

Given their outstanding track records in the majors, Kimbrel and Keuchel entered free agency in November as two of the highest-ranked players available. High-paying, long-term contracts looked likely for both players at the time, but seven months later, they remain without teams. That probably won’t be the case for much longer considering the soon-to-expire draft pick ramifications, however.

For the Braves, the interest in Kimbrel is particularly notable. The right-hander was a 2008 draftee of the Braves, who took him in the third round and then saw him develop into one of the best picks in franchise history. Now one of the greatest relievers ever, Kimbrel spent 2010-14 with Atlanta, for which he pitched to a near-spotless 1.43 ERA/1.52 FIP with 14.82 K/9 against 3.36 BB/9 and piled up 186 saves over 289 innings. The Braves then ended their relationship with Kimbrel when they traded him to the Padres in April 2015. Kimbrel, now 31, moved on to the Red Sox via trade in 2016 and remained a formidable late-game force with the club through 2018, though he wasn’t as effective last season after an otherworldly showing in 2017.

On paper, Kimbrel would be an enormous pickup for an Atlanta team whose bullpen has fallen short this season. Their relief unit ranks 22nd in the majors in ERA and 27th in walks per nine innings, though current closer Luke Jackson, Touki Toussaint, Sean Newcomb and Jacob Webb have been good to great. Otherwise, the Braves have shuffled through several veterans who are far less inspiring than Kimbrel. Arodys Vizcaino, Jesse Biddle and Jonny Venters – all of whom are now out of the organization – as well as Josh Tomlin, the just-acquired Anthony Swarzak and Jerry Blevins are among familiar names the Braves have turned to in search of solutions.

The Braves’ rotation has been better than their bullpen, ranking 10th in ERA and 18th in fWAR, but the club seems to believe there’s ample room for improvement. They could look to Keuchel, a 31-year-old southpaw who’s a former AL Cy Young winner (2015), for help. The ex-Astro would be the most established starter on Atlanta’s staff, but he’d have a hard time topping the marvelous production Mike Soroka and Max Fried have put forth. Kevin Gausman and Julio Teheran have been useful in their own right, but the Braves have otherwise struggled to find a capable fifth member for their rotation. Mike Foltynewicz entered 2019 off what looked like a breakout season, but he has been a weak link so far. Newcomb, Toussaint, Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson have also had difficulty over a combined eight starts.

Of course, it’s worth pointing out that no one knows when Kimbrel or Keuchel will be ready to help a team. Even if they sign within the next week, they’ll likely need time to prepare to join their next club(s). Beyond that, there’s the key matter of how much they’ll cost. That may be of especially great import to the Braves, whose payroll has left fans upset this season. They opened 2018 with an $118MM-plus outlay, but despite winning the NL East last season, they’re now in the $115MM range. What’s more, back in February, neither Anthopoulos nor Braves CEO Terry McGuirk seemed too enthusiastic about distributing a big, multiyear contract. However, McGuirk did note, “We still have an appreciable amount of dry powder ready to go.”

Rays In Contact With Keuchel, Kimbrel

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Free agent hurlers Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel are both expected to sign somewhere shortly after midnight EST on June 2 when they will no longer be tied to draft pick compensation, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Josh Tolentino. Craig Edwards from Fangraphs recently put together a valuation of the compensation cost every team would face were they to sign either Keuchel or Kimbrel before the June 2nd expiration date. At this stage, however, even if there were a team willing to stomach the loss of a draft pick, it behooves these free agents to wait out this final week and see if their “lightened load” helps spark a bidding war – “war” being a relative term here.

Where these two end up will continue to be one of the stories of the season. Despite their well-catalogued need for a starting pitcher, the Padres do not appear ready to buy on Keuchel. The Rays, meanwhile, remain in touch with both pitchers, per Rosenthal and Tolentino. Common assumptions about “need” would point to Keuchel as the natural fit for the Rays, but Kimbrel may actually be the more likely of the two. The Rays certainly know how to use a good reliever, though Kimbrel would likely have to open his mind to a less-than-traditional closer’s role.

On the other hand, the Rays have to be intrigued by the possibility of rolling into the second half of the season sporting a top-four of Blake Snell, Charlie Morton, Keuchel and Tyler Glasnow. Health and contract negotiations aside, such a traditional powerhouse rotation would be a fun twist for the revolutionizing Rays. Even if they are still Facebook friends with Keuchel and Kimbrel, however, they’ll need to outbid the Yankees at the very least to snag Keuchel. For Kimbrel, if you can name a contender, you can find a potential landing spot.

Of course, this conversation would make a whole lot of sense were this December. Since it’s now late-May, and neither pitcher seems likely to sign before June 3rd at the earliest, conjecture about widespread interest (on my part) in Kimbrel is a tad comical, even if bullpens are languishing left and right throughout the league. Still, there’s widespread interest in winning, even if evidence often points to the contrary. Point being, though they’ve gone unsigned up til now, the Rays will not be alone in courting the services of Kimbrel (or Keuchel) come early June.

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