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Frankie Montas

Frankie Montas Shut Down Six To Eight Weeks With Lat Strain

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12:50pm: The Mets informed reporters, including Tim Healey of Newday, that Montas has a high grade right lat strain. He will get a platelet-rich plasma injection and be shut down for six to eight weeks. That will take him roughly to the start of April, at which point he will have to start ramping up again. Even if he is back to full health at that point, he’s likely going to miss at least a month of the season.

12:40pm: It’s a lat injury, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post, though the timetable is still unknown.

11:41am: Mets camp has only just begun, but Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that free agent pickup Frankie Montas has not been throwing and will be shut down for a “significant stretch.” Details surrounding the apparent injury have not yet come to light. The Mets signed Montas to a two-year, $34MM contract back in early December. He has an opt-out opportunity at the end of the season, though a prolonged injury absence will obviously reduce the likelihood of that coming to pass.

Without details about the injury or expected absence, it’s hard to say how worried Mets fans should be. Regardless, it’s not ideal to be starting camp with one of their key offseason investments already behind.

The Mets were facing a significant rotation overhaul this winter, with Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana all hitting free agency. They had also lost Christian Scott to Tommy John surgery last year and Paul Blackburn had undergone a spinal procedure. They still had Kodai Senga, though he missed most of 2024.

Given the club’s big spending in recent years, some expected them to go after the top free agents, but they took a different route this winter. They never seemed particularly interested in guys like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried, instead opting for short-term pacts. They re-signed Manaea with a three-year deal, and also gave three years to reliever Clay Holmes with the idea of converting him to a rotation job. Montas got two years with an opt-out while Griffin Canning got a one-year deal.

Injuries have been an issue for Montas recently, most notable a shoulder issue that required surgery and wiped out most of his 2023 campaign. He was back on the mound last year with uneven results, posting a 4.48 earned run average and tepid 22.6% strikeout rate. That latter number did tick up to 28.7% after a deadline deal to the Brewers, which is perhaps what gave the Mets some optimism that he was back on a good track, but health may now be an issue again.

That shoulder surgery is one reason why Montas hasn’t been able to log many big league innings. He also received an 80-game PED suspension in July of 2019, putting his breakout on hold. The pandemic-shortened 2020 season then capped him at 11 starts that year. He tossed 187 innings in 2021 but then the shoulder issues slowed him down late in 2022 before the aforementioned surgery. Amid all those stops and starts, Montas has only once hit 151 innings pitched in a season.

If Montas is behind, then a season-opening start on the injured list seems likely. Until more details are reported, it can only be guessed whether the concern will extend deeper into the season. Assuming Montas does start the season on the IL, the Mets project to start the campaign with a rotation of Senga, Manaea, Holmes and David Peterson, with Canning, Blackburn and Tylor Megill options for the back end, though Blackburn also might start the season on the IL.  Prospects Brandon Sproat and Blade Tidwell should be in Triple-A, though both struggled at that level last year.

If the Mets want to add some more depth in the wake of this Montas news, they will have options. The free agent market still features guys like Quintana, Andrew Heaney, Spencer Turnbull and others. Marcus Stroman, Jordan Montgomery and others are likely available in trades.

Per RosterResource, the payroll is at $331MM and the competitive balance tax at $325MM. The pure payroll was in a similar spot last year, though they got their CBT number all the way up to $358MM. Whether they want to add more payroll to continue adding to the rotation remains to be seen.

Mets Sign Frankie Montas

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The Mets announced they have signed right-hander Frankie Montas to a two-year deal that contains an opt-out clause for Montas following the 2025 season. The Boras Corporation client will reportedly earn $17MM in both the 2025 and 2026 seasons for a $34MM guarantee.

Montas returns to the Big Apple after an injury-plagued stint with the Yankees during the 2022-23 seasons.  The Yankees acquired Montas from the A’s at the 2022 trade deadline when Montas was still trying to work through some shoulder discomfort, and his ill-fated attempt to pitch through the pain led to a 6.35 ERA over 39 2/3 innings during the remainder of the 2022 campaign.  Montas then required labrum surgery the following February that cost him almost all of the 2023 season, as he returned to pitch 1 1/3 innings in one game at the very end of September.

The Reds bet that Montas would be able to bounce back when healthy, and last January signed the righty to a one-year deal that ended up being worth $16MM — $14MM in guaranteed salary, and then a $2MM buyout once Montas declined his end of a mutual option for the 2025 season.  Perhaps showing the after-effects of his long layoff, Montas had a 4.84 ERA over 150 2/3 combined innings with Cincinnati and Milwaukee last season, as the Reds sent Montas to the Brewers last July in another deadline trade.

Apart from a minimal 15-day IL stint due to a forearm contusion, Montas was pretty healthy in his comeback year, and the 150 2/3 innings represents the second-highest workload of his nine Major League seasons.  As the 4.84 ERA might imply, however, Montas (who turns 32 in March) ran into some struggles.  His 22.6% strikeout rate was slightly below the league average, and he surrendered a lot of walks and a lot of hard contact.

Montas’ 14.8% home run rate was the highest of his career, and he actually allowed more homers after leaving the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark for the more neutral American Family Field.  His fastball velocity dropped from 96.1mph to 95.6mph, which isn’t bad for a pitcher returning from a yearlong absence, but the larger issue was Montas’ sinker was the only effective pitch in his arsenal.  It is worth noting that Montas’ velocity and strikeout rate did increase after the trade to the Brewers, so another change of scenery might now more fully get him back to his pre-surgery form.

MLBTR ranked Montas 27th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and his $34MM guarantee significantly tops our prediction of a two-year, $22MM contract.  The higher price could reflect the ever-rising price of pitching, and the Mets and other teams might have put a greater premium on Montas’ ability to eat innings.

The Mets in particular had a glaring need for rotation help, as Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and Jose Quintana are all free agents.  Montas now fills one of those holes in the pitching staff, and he’ll join Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Tylor Megill, and (if healthy) Paul Blackburn as the current starting five, though more additions are surely still to come this winter.

Much of the buzz surrounding the Mets this offseason has naturally focused on their courtship of Juan Soto, but New York has also been linked to such pitchers as Roki Sasaki and trade candidate Garrett Crochet.  There has been speculation that the Amazins could also pursue some of the top names on the pitching market, though there hasn’t been any public news on that front to date.

It could be that the Mets are holding off on other big-ticket pursuits until Soto’s situation is resolved, and Montas’ contract represents a fairly less-expensive foray into the free agent market that helps address the club’s chief need for pitching.  For now, the Montas contract resembles the two-year, $28MM deal (also with an opt-out) that Manaea signed last winter, as president of baseball operations David Stearns has thus far stuck to his strategy of inking starters to shorter-term contracts.  Montas is surely hoping that he can follow Manaea’s path of delivering a stronger full season, and then returning to free agency next year to land a lengthier and pricier contract.

The $17MM average annual value of Montas’ contract still leaves New York with plenty of space before it hits the $241MM luxury tax threshold, as RosterResource projects the club’s tax number at roughly $189.7MM.  Obviously avoiding the tax hasn’t been a priority in the Steve Cohen era and signing Soto to a record contract would alone put the Mets at or near the threshold before any other moves are made.  Just in case Soto does sign elsewhere, however, a world exists where the Mets could be aggressive this winter and still reset their tax situation entirely, which would allow the Mets to enjoy more financial flexibility (and a smaller overall tax bill) going forward.

It is perhaps noteworthy that Boras represents both Soto and Montas, and it seems likely that Boras and Stearns have discussed several of the agent’s many clients during their conversations this offseason.  Montas is already the third Boras-represented pitcher to sign a new contract this winter, after Blake Snell’s five-year, $182MM deal with the Dodgers and Yusei Kikuchi’s three-year, $63MM pact with the Angels.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan (X link) was the first to report the signing and the contract terms.  Jon Heyman of the New York Post (via X) added the detail about the opt-out clause, and the specific breakdown of Montas’ salaries over the two seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

MLBTR Podcast: Blake Snell, Dodger Fatigue, And The Simmering Hot Stove

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • What would the Pirates have to give to the Red Sox to get Triston Casas? (48:20)
  • Why is Cody Bellinger’s deal so tough for the Cubs to trade? (54:15)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Frankie Montas Declines Mutual Option; Brewers Outright Bryse Wilson, Jake Bauers

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The Brewers announced a set of roster moves today, including the news that Frankie Montas declined his end of a $20MM mutual option for the 2025 season.  Montas (who will be 32 on Opening Day) will instead take a $2MM buyout and enter free agency.  Milwaukee also outrighted right-hander Bryse Wilson and first baseman/outfielder Jake Bauers off the 40-man roster, and both players will head to free agency as well.

The one-year contract Montas signed with the Reds last winter broke down as a $14MM guarantee for 2024, and then the $2MM buyout on the $20MM mutual option.  It should be noted that mutual options are almost never triggered by both sides, so Montas’ decision to decline the option in the wake of his so-so season shouldn’t be seen as a surprise, as the Brewers surely would’ve passed on their end of the option anyway.

A labrum surgery in February 2023 ended up costing Montas all but 1 1/3 innings of the 2023 season, as he made it back to pitch in the second-last game of the Yankees’ regular-season schedule.  Despite that lost year, the right-hander’s past track record of success as a starter with the Athletics still allowed Montas to land a healthy one-year guarantee in free agency, though his attempt at a bounce-back season delivered mixed results.

Montas posted a 4.84 ERA over 150 2/3 combined innings with the Reds and Brewers, as Milwaukee picked up Montas in an intra-division trade at the deadline.  The righty’s strikeout rate shot upwards after the trade and his SIERA improved by almost a full run, even though Montas’ 4.55 ERA with the Brew Crew wasn’t a huge upgrade over the 5.01 ERA he posted in Cincinnati.

For the full season, Montas’ 22.6% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, 27.7% chase rate, and hard-contact metrics were all below the league average.  Some rust was perhaps expected since Montas missed basically all of 2023, and the fact that he returned to pitch 150 2/3 innings is perhaps the most important stat in the eyes of some evaluators.  Teams will always have a need for starters who can eat innings, and Montas’ uptick in performance after joining the Brewers could be viewed as a sign that he might still be able to get closer to his old form now that he is further removed from his surgery.

Bauers was projected to earn $2.3MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility, and Wilson $1.5MM in his first trip through the arb process.  Both were expected to be non-tendered, so today’s moves gives the pair an early jump on the free agent market in advance of the November 22 non-tender deadline.

Acquired from the Yankees in a trade last November, Bauers hit .199/.301/.361 with 12 homers over 346 plate appearances in what looks to be his lone season in Milwaukee.  Bauers primarily played in a timeshare at first base with Rhys Hoskins, while also getting some action in at both corner outfield positions.  Hoskins exercised his player option and will return to the Brewers in 2025, with Tyler Black probably now penciled in to at least assume the left-handed hitting side of the first base timeshare, leaving Bauers an obvious odd man out.

Wilson had a 4.04 ERA, 18.6% strikeout rate, and seven percent walk rate over 104 2/3 innings in 2024, and he worked in a variety of roles as a starter, reliever, and bulk pitcher behind an opener.  Working in a pure relief role with the Brewers in 2023, Wilson had a 2.58 ERA in 76 2/3 frames over 53 appearances.

Between Wilson’s solid bottom-line results, the low arbitration price tag, and the remaining years of team control, Milwaukee’s decision to move on from the 26-year-old seems curious at first, though Wilson’s underwhelming peripherals provide the answer.  Wilson’s .253 BABIP helped offset his lack of strikeout punch, and his 4.33 SIERA over his two seasons with the Brewers was substantially higher than his 3.42 ERA.  The Brewers could potentially look to re-sign Wilson to a new contract, though it seems like the Crew might want a higher-upside arm for its pitching depth chart.

The Brewers’ Rotation Is Holding Up

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The Brewers have the best run differential in MLB. Milwaukee has outscored its opponents by 139 runs, putting them 14 runs clear of the second-place Yankees’ +125 gap. Milwaukee is coasting to another division title and sit half a game behind the Phillies for the #2 seed in the National League, which would give them a first-round bye in the postseason.

It’s not a shock that the Brewers are good. They’ve proven time and again they’re capable of outperforming a middling payroll to compete for a playoff spot. Yet few would’ve predicted they’d be this good: 24 games over .500 with the largest division lead in baseball. Milwaukee’s previous success was built largely around the three-headed rotation monster of Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff. Between the Burnes trade and Woodruff’s shoulder injury, they’ve been forced to make do with a far less established rotation. Milwaukee’s rotation might not have the firepower it once did, yet it has held all the same.

Brewers starters are 12th in the majors with a 3.92 earned run average. That’s already an achievement considering the challenges of pitching at Miller Park, and they’ve been even better lately. Since the trade deadline, only the Astros and Tigers have a lower rotation ERA than Milwaukee does. Detroit’s mark is skewed by frequent use of openers; Tiger “starters” have an MLB-low 112 1/3 innings since the end of July. Milwaukee’s starters have tied for the third-most innings over that stretch (174 2/3), narrowly behind Houston and the Mets. For the past month and change, the Astros and Brewers have had the most valuable rotations in the league.

Not coincidentally, they were two of the league’s best teams last month. While Houston’s rotation turnaround has been a big story in its own right, Milwaukee’s rotation performance is probably more surprising. The Brewers signed Jakob Junis to take a season-opening rotation spot; he made one start, got hurt, and was eventually moved at the deadline. Wade Miley and Robert Gasser each blew out early in the season. Joe Ross and DL Hall each spent multiple months on the injured list.

The Brewers have given multiple starts to 13 different pitchers this year (15 if one includes the opener appearances by Jared Koenig and Rob Zastryzny). They’ve only had three pitchers top 50 innings working from the rotation in a Milwaukee uniform. Still, between a pair of unexpected contributors and two buy-low deadline pickups, they’re trending towards October with a settled starting five.

Peralta has headlined the group. He’s the team leader in starts (28) and innings (153 2/3). Peralta carries a 3.75 ERA behind a strong 27.3% strikeout rate. While he can battle the home run ball at times, Peralta is one of the better pitchers in the league. He was supposed to deliver at the front of the rotation, and he has.

The pitchers coming after Peralta entered the year with a lot less fanfare. Colin Rea logged 124 2/3 innings over 26 appearances a year ago. He posted a 4.55 ERA with middling peripherals. When Milwaukee brought him back on a $4.5MM deal on November 2, the most notable aspect of the deal seemed to be its timing — a few days before the official opening of free agency. Rea secured a spot in the Opening Day rotation, likely as the #5 arm.

Through four months, Rea ranks narrowly behind Peralta for second on the team in innings. He has tossed a career-high 146 frames with a solid 3.70 ERA. His 8% swinging strike rate and 19.4% strikeout percentage still suggest he’s more of a back-end arm, but Rea has thus far avoided any regression in terms of run prevention. He has an ERA between 3.25 and 4.22 in every month of the season, welcome consistency for a rotation that has dealt with significant injuries.

Rea has been a surprisingly key contributor, though he at least started the year on the MLB roster. That wasn’t the case for Tobias Myers, who has gone from minor league signee to #3 starter. The 26-year-old righty was a prospect of some regard early in his career, performing well through Double-A. Cleveland acquired Myers in a regrettable trade that sent future top prospect Junior Caminero to the Rays. Triple-A hitters obliterated him in 2022, leading multiple teams to cut him loose without giving him a look at the big league level.

Myers signed a minor league deal with Milwaukee going into 2023. He spent most of the season in Double-A, where he racked up huge strikeout totals against generally younger opposition. Myers never got himself back on the prospect radar, but he earned a look from the Brewers in mid-April when the rotation was floundering.

Shuttled on and off the active roster through the end of May, Myers had a 5.40 ERA in seven appearances. That’s the kind of production expected from a minor league signee pressed into action. As recently as a few months ago, it wasn’t clear if the Brewers would keep him on the roster all season. Gasser’s injury in early June gave Myers another shot. He has seized it.

Over his past 15 starts, the rookie owns a 2.27 ERA while working nearly six innings per appearance. He has a roughly average 21.1% strikeout rate and is limiting walks to a 6.3% clip. Myers has unquestionably been aided by a meager .264 average on balls in play. He doesn’t miss enough bats to be an ace. Yet even with some level of inevitable regression, Myers looks like a polished strike-thrower who fits in the middle of a rotation. Were it not for an absolutely loaded field in the National League this year, Myers might have gotten some Rookie of the Year attention.

Effective as Rea and Myers had been early in the summer, Milwaukee’s front office understandably viewed the rotation as their priority at the deadline. Myers was early into what has become a three-month stretch of excellent play. Rea’s workload was a question mark. Milwaukee made one of the first pickups of note early in July, bringing in Aaron Civale from the Rays. The night before the deadline, they flipped Junis and young outfielder Joey Wiemer (who’d been mostly squeezed out with the Brewers) to the Reds for Frankie Montas.

Both acquisitions were rebound hopefuls. Civale and Montas had each looked like upper mid-rotation arms at their best, but they’d fallen on harder times. Both pitchers had an ERA narrowly above 5.00 with their previous teams. They’re each allowing fewer than four earned runs per nine in Milwaukee. Civale has a 3.72 mark across 48 1/3 innings as a Brewer. Montas carries a 3.82 ERA in 33 frames following the trade.

Civale’s underlying performance isn’t dramatically different from where it’d been in Tampa Bay. His strikeout and walk profile has gone in the wrong direction. He’s getting more ground-balls with the Brew Crew — somewhat diminishing the home run issues that really plagued him with the Rays — but he’s giving up more contact than ever before. As with Rea and Myers, the change is largely about his ball in play results. Opponents hit .312 on balls in play off Civale with the Rays; that’s down to .257 since the trade.

Montas has shown more obvious signs of improvement. His strikeout rate with the Reds sat a below-average 19%. It’s up to 22.7% in his brief stint in Milwaukee. His fastball velocity has climbed from the 94-95 range to sit more comfortably above 96 MPH this month. Montas’ velocity was steadily building throughout the year in Cincinnati, so perhaps he’d have found this level regardless of where he was traded. Even if that’s the case, the Brewers deserve credit for identifying him as a buy-low target.

All of a sudden, manager Pat Murphy has a number of options he can choose from in constructing a playoff rotation. Milwaukee is going to win the NL Central. They’ll at least play in a three-game Wild Card set. Winning that (or tracking down one of the Dodgers or Phillies for a bye) would guarantee at least a five-game Division Series.

Peralta is the obvious call to pitch the first game. Myers’ recent form probably gives him a leg up as a Game 2 starter, though that could be determined by how well he finishes the regular season. Montas may not be all the way back to the peak he showed with the A’s, but he’s pitching well enough to be a fine choice for either Game 2 or 3. That’d likely leave Murphy to choose between Civale and Rea for a potential fourth game, perhaps in tandem with a multi-inning relief appearance from Hall.

It still may not be an elite starting staff, but it’s hardly a liability. A shorter series will allow Murphy to leverage his excellent relief group more heavily. Late in close games, the scales should tip in Milwaukee’s favor. The rotation now looks strong enough to get them there.

MLBTR Podcast: Fallout From The Trade Deadline And Mike Trout Injured Again

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Brewers Acquire Frankie Montas

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The Reds and Brewers lined up on an intra-division trade Monday night. Cincinnati is reportedly sending right-hander Frankie Montas to Milwaukee for young outfielder Joey Wiemer, veteran right-hander Jakob Junis and cash.

Montas, 31, gives the Brewers a veteran arm to plug into a rotation that’s been decimated by injury, although the big right-hander isn’t having anywhere close to his best season. The longtime A’s hurler signed a one-year, $16MM contract after missing nearly the entire 2023 season due to shoulder surgery and hasn’t recaptured the form that established him as a quality big leaguer from 2019-22, when he logged 480 1/3 innings of 3.67 ERA ball with a 25.4% strikeout rate against a 7.2% walk rate.

Rather, the 2024 version of Montas is sitting on a 5.01 ERA with a diminished 19% strikeout rate against a 10% walk rate that stands as his worst since 2017. His 95.3 mph average fastball is down 1.5 mph from its 96.8 mph peak back in 2019, and Montas has seen a huge dip in swinging-strike rate, falling from a peak 13.7% to 10.4% this season.

It’s been an ugly season for Montas, but the Brewers also have a history of getting more out of pitchers than one would expect at first glance. They’ve gotten strong results from righties Colin Rea and Tobias Myers this season despite minimal to nonexistent track records from both. Milwaukee presumably has a plan to get Montas back into form, but it’s nevertheless a modest surprise to see them deal a former top prospect (Wiemer) within the division to effectively rent Montas for the final two months of the 2024 season.

That said, Wiemer’s inclusion in the deal speaks to the manner in which his stock has dropped over the past year-plus. Entering the 2023 season, he was regarded by some as one of the sport’s top-100 prospects. However, the 2020 fourth-rounder stumbled through his first taste of the majors last year, hitting just .204/.283/.362 in 410 plate appearances. Wiemer pounded 13 homers and swiped 11 bags but also struck out in just under 29% of his plate appearances. He’s also shown glaring platoon splits in limited big league action, slashing .263/.290/.481 against lefties but registering a woeful .169/.271/.281 slash against fellow righties. Wiemer’s power has been missing in action this season in Triple-A Nashville, where he’s hit .242/.387/.358 with only three homers in 253 plate appearances.

Wiemer’s platoon splits suggest that he could at the very least be a useful part-time player, and he’s also graded out exceptionally well in the outfield. In 1095 innings across all three outfield spots — primarily center — he’s been credited with six Defensive Runs Saved, seven Outs Above Average and a 5.8 Ultimate Zone Rating. Statcast pegged him in the 93rd percentile of MLB outfielders in terms of range and 96th percentile in terms of value generated with his arm.

If nothing else, Wiemer has the look of a short-side platoon fourth outfielder. He’s in the second of three option years and is under club control through at least the 2029 season. The Reds will hope there’s some more in the tank, but pulling a controllable MLB-ready outfielder — even one in the midst of a down season — in exchange for the rental of a struggling veteran starter had some understandable appeal for Cincinnati.

The Reds will also pick up their own veteran rental in the deal. The 31-year-old Junis is on a one-year, $7MM contract that contains a mutual option for the 2025 season. He’s spent most of the year on the injured list but returned in June and has a 2.42 ERA in 26 innings, working primarily as a long reliever. He’s fanned 18.8% of his opponents against a 5% walk rate. Had Junis been healthy this year, he might’ve gotten a look in the rotation, but the Brewers must not be bullish on his chances of holding up in that role. He hasn’t worked more than three innings since returning from the injured list.

Junis gives the Reds an experienced swingman who could potentially start some games or at least serve as a bulk option behind an opener. His inclusion in the swap also adds something of a financial counterweight; Montas is owed $4.7MM of his $14MM salary still, plus the $2MM buyout on a $20MM mutual option for next season. Junis is still owed $1.35MM of his $4MM salary plus a $3MM buyout on his $8MM mutual option. (Mutual options, it should be noted, are generally accounting measures and are almost never exercised; it’s been about a decade since the last time a player and team both agreed to exercise a mutual option.)

The Brewers are reportedly still sending about $1MM to the Reds in the deal to offset the gap in the option buyouts. In total, Milwaukee is taking on about $3.35MM in extra expenses in order to facilitate the trade.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Brewers were acquiring Montas. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported Junis and Wiemer were headed back to Cincinnati. Feinsand reported the cash considerations.

Krall: Reds Have Not Declared Themselves Sellers

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July 23: Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall pushed back on Morosi’s report, telling Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he’s had conversations with the majority of the league but has “not gone down one road that specific.”

Krall’s comments came on the heels of a Cincinnati victory over Atlanta last night. That win kept the Reds within four games of a Wild Card spot in the National League, albeit in an extraordinarily tightly bunched race. Though they’re only four games back, the Reds would need to vault past the Giants, Cubs, D-backs, Padres, Pirates and one of the Mets or Cardinals in order to move into Wild Card position. The Cubs are actually a half-game up on the Reds in the standings, and their own president of baseball operations, Jed Hoyer, publicly conceded just last night that his focus will be on 2025 and beyond.

The next few days will likely be pivotal for the Reds as they chart their course for the remainder of the season. They have two games left against the Braves, followed by three road games against the Rays. They’ll host the Cubs on the evening of July 29 — their final game before the July 30 deadline.

July 21: Back in early July, when the Reds were 41-45 and just a few games out of the NL Wild Card race, club GM Brad Meador suggested that the club was not yet ready to commit to a strategy for this year’s trade deadline. Flash forward to today, and fallen to a record of 47-53 after getting swept by the Nationals coming out of the All-Star break. It appears that recent performance may have been enough for the club to officially set course, as Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the club has begun to inform rival clubs that they are willing to part with players on expiring contracts.

It’s hardly a surprise that Cincinnati would limit any sell-off to rental pieces. After all, the club has an exciting core of young talent led by star shortstop Elly De La Cruz and right-hander Hunter Greene that figures to keep the Reds in the playoff conversation in the coming years, and this season has been complicated by injuries to key pieces such as Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, TJ Friedl, Brandon Williamson, and Graham Ashcraft. By maintaining that core of players as well as veteran pieces under longer-term control such as Jonathan India and Jeimer Candelario, the Reds can remain fairly well positioned to load back up for the 2025 campaign this winter and make another attempt at returning to contention.

The Reds’ list of pending free agents is a relatively short one, but it nonetheless has some interesting names. Right-hander Frankie Montas, whose $20MM mutual option for 2025 is all but certain to be declined, is perhaps the player with the most name recognition that the club could look to move. Righty Nick Martinez has a $12MM player option for 2025 and could also be made available, while outfielder Austin Slater (who the Reds acquired from San Francisco just two weeks ago), lefty Justin Wilson, and right-handers Buck Farmer and Lucas Sims will each see their contracts run out at season’s end.

According to Morosi, the Orioles are among the clubs to have interest in Cincinnati’s rental pitchers, including Montas and Martinez. The fit between Baltimore and either of those two pieces is somewhat obvious, as the Orioles have lost starters Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells to season-ending surgery this year. That’s left them to put together a patchwork rotation filled out by Dean Kremer and Albert Suarez behind front-end duo Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez. At least one more playoff-caliber starter would make plenty of sense for the Orioles, and they would likely benefit from adding additional depth beyond that as well.

Whether Montas, 31, constitutes a playoff-caliber starter at this point in his career is up for debate. The righty has struggled badly with the Reds in 89 innings (18 starts) this year, posting a 4.85 ERA and 5.04 FIP which are both roughly 15% worse than league average. While Montas has allowed three runs or fewer in 12 of his 18 starts this year, blow-up starts have been a fairly frequent occurrence for the righty, including a combined 12 runs allowed in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Nationals and Rockies.

Bleak as his recent performance has been, Montas isn’t far removed from a stretch of mid-rotation success with the A’s from 2018 to 2022 where he posted 3.70 ERA and 3.61 FIP in 99 appearances. With that being said, it can’t be ignored that Montas underwent shoulder surgery back in February of last year. Since his return from going under the knife, his peripherals are those of a completely different pitcher. He’s struck out just 18.7% of batters faced after entering 2023 with a career 24.3% strikeout rate, and after allowing free passes to just 7.8% of opponents through the end of the 2022 season he’s watched his walk rate balloon to 10% since undergoing surgery. Even with those flaws, however, Montas’s track record as a quality mid-rotation arm could still certainly attract interest from pitching-hungry suitors.

Martinez, however, could prove to be the better fit for the Orioles’ needs. The right-hander has found a niche as one of the best swingmen in the game over the past three seasons with San Diego and Cincinnati, and this season the 33-year-old boasts a solid 3.88 ERA with an even stronger 3.15 FIP. While his 18.9% walk rate isn’t anything to write home about, he’s limited walks to a clip of just 3% this year while surrendering just six home runs in 72 innings of work. Martinez has been used primarily in relief this year, although he made five starts for the Reds early in the season and demonstrated the ability to move between the rotation and bullpen with relative ease during his time in San Diego. The veteran righty would offer the Orioles pitching depth for both the bullpen and rotation down the stretch, possibly working out of the rotation for the remainder of the regular season before moving into the bullpen during the playoffs.

Of course, Baltimore is far from the only club that could be interesting in the Reds’ available rentals. The Dodgers, Astros, Red Sox, and Padres are among the other teams known to be in the market for starting pitching, while virtually every contender is typically on the prowl for rental bullpen help this time of year and could have interest in either Martinez in a relief role or a rental bullpen arm like Wilson, Farmer, or Sims.

GM: Reds Have Yet To Commit To Deadline Strategy

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The Reds entered the 2024 season as hopeful contenders but find themselves five games under .500 and 10.5 games back of the Brewers for the division lead in the National League Central. It’s certainly not how they drew things up, but the tightly bunched NL Wild Card picture still leaves Cincinnati with some legitimate playoff aspirations. The Reds are only four games back of the third NL Wild Card spot at the moment. They’re one of many teams on the Wild Card bubble whose deadline activity will likely hinge on how the team plays in the coming weeks. In fact, general manager Brad Meador effectively confirmed as much to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

“We have to wait and see how we finish off this road trip and the homestand coming up, and then we’ll see,” Meador tells Wittenmyer. “We’re talking about it. We’d love to be able to add, but realistically, we’ll probably just have to see how it goes.”

The Reds control their own fate, in many respects, and they’ll head into the upcoming All-Star break with a series of eminently winnable games. They took the first of a three-game set at Yankee Stadium last night and have a tough task finishing off that series, but they’ll close out the first half against three teams with sub-.500 records — including the two worst clubs in the NL. On Friday, Cincinnati commences a 10-game homestand where they’ll host the Tigers, Rockies and Marlins for three, four and three games, respectively. The Reds will open the second half with a nine-game road trip through Washington, Atlanta and St. Petersburg before starting a home series against the Cubs on July 29 (one day before the July 30 trade deadline).

It’s a pivotal stretch of games for the Reds, to say the least. A winning streak could catapult them north of .500 and prominently into the Wild Card hunt (while narrowing the division gap), while an underwhelming stretch against some of the less-competitive clubs on the upcoming schedule could serve as a death knell for their 2024 postseason aspirations. Playing roughly .500 ball between now and July 30 would leave the front office with some tougher decisions to make. For now, Meador acknowledged “vague” conversations exploring both sides of the market while cautioning nothing is close.

Among the most notable trade candidates on the roster, if the Reds go that route, will be Jonathan India and Frankie Montas. India is hitting .275/.381/.405 with five homers and eight steals on the season. He’s fanned in a career-low 19.7% of his plate appearances and has restored his walk rate to a hefty 12.8% after seeing it dip to a combined 8.6% in 2022-23.

India is playing out the first season of a two-year, $8.8MM contract that bought out two of his three arbitration seasons. He’s locked into a $5MM salary for the 2025 season and would be arbitration-eligible in the 2025-26 offseason before hitting the open market post-2026. He’s not a good defensive second baseman, but he’s been a line-drive machine at the plate this year (24.9%) while showing his best K-BB profile since winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2021.

While India conceded to Wittenmyer that last year’s slate of trade rumblings got to him mentally, this time around he feels more prepared for it. The 27-year-old emphasized a desire to remain in Cincinnati long-term, noting he “loves” the city and organization while simultaneously acknowledging that a potential trade is beyond his control and not something on which he plans to dwell.

Montas would be the roster’s most straightforward trade candidate. The 31-year-old hasn’t bounced back to his Oakland form but has been healthy with the Reds after missing nearly all of the 2023 season due to shoulder surgery. He’s on a one-year, $16MM contract and has pitched to a 4.23 ERA in 72 1/3 innings across 15 starts.

Montas’ 95.1 mph average heater (via Statcast) is down from its 96.8 mph peak, and his 18.6% strikeout rate isn’t close to his career-best 26.6% mark, set back in 2021. Still, he’s pitched like a capable enough fourth starter and has seen his velocity build as the season has progressed. Montas sat 94 mph with his fastball through late April but is at 95.5 mph dating back to May 1.

Over Montas’ past six starts, he’s pitched 31 1/3 innings of 3.73 ERA ball with a much-improved 23.3% strikeout rate. His 10.9% walk rate in that stretch is too high, but the velocity and missed bats are beginning to resurface. If he can continue some of those positive gains in velocity and strikeouts, Montas could be of interest to teams looking to add to the middle tier of their rotation.

The Reds have other candidates to be moved, though their willingness to give out some surprising opt-out clauses over the winter could work against them in that regard. Veterans Emilio Pagan and Nick Martinez signed two-year contracts worth $16MM and $26MM, respectively, but the second season of each of those deals is a player option. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco detailed for MLBTR Front Office subscribers earlier this week, such clauses often present severe impediments to trading a player.

Other names to watch in the event of a Reds sale would include relievers Buck Farmer, Lucas Sims and Brent Suter. All three are free agents at season’s end. Each has had varying levels of success this season while playing on an affordable salary. The return for any one of those three likely wouldn’t be enormous but could shed a small money off the payroll while adding a lottery-ticket prospect to the lower tiers of the farm system.

All of that is putting the cart before the horse, however. The Reds’ roster will have a nice window of winnable games to convince the front office that adding pieces is the proper route in the weeks ahead. Cincinnati has received negligible production from the outfield, designated hitter and first base this season — although Noelvi Marte’s recent return likely means they’ll install a productive hitter (Jeimer Candelario) in at first base more regularly now. Adding some kind of bat to help boost the offense would be prudent — assuming the Reds can keep themselves afloat or even improve upon their standing in the next couple weeks.

Reds Select Conner Capel

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The Reds announced a series of roster moves today, selecting the contract of outfielder Conner Capel while also activating outfielder TJ Friedl and right-hander Frankie Montas from their respective stints on the injured list. The club had optioned left-hander Sam Moll yesterday and opened up two more roster spots today by optioning outfielders Nick Martini and Bubba Thompson. To open a 40-man spot for Capel, right-hander Ian Gibaut was transferred to the 60-day IL.

Capel, who turns 27 this month, signed a minor league deal with the Reds in the offseason. He has been in Triple-A so far this year and performing quite well. Through 122 plate appearances, he has walked almost as often as he’s struck out, with a 16.4% walk rate compared to a 17.2% strikeout rate. He’s hit seven home runs and has a batting line of .268/.397/.567, which translates to a 146 wRC+.

The outfielder has 145 major league plate appearances on his résumé with a slash line of .280/.366/.408. He struggled in Triple-A last year, which caused the Athletics to bump him off their roster, but he hit .263/.364/.422 in the minors in 2022 for a 112 wRC+.

On top of that mostly solid offensive work in the past few years, Capel can steal a few bases and move around the outfield. He’s been playing both left and center field this year, with some past experience in right field as well. He has swiped six bags so far here in 2024, with double-digit tallies in most of his previous minor league seasons.

The Reds came into the season with seemingly too many position players, but that apparent surplus evaporated fairly quickly. Noelvi Marté was hit with an 80-game PED suspension, Matt McLain required shoulder surgery and Friedl suffered a wrist fracture. Lately, some players have been missing time without going on the IL, including Jake Fraley, Tyler Stephenson, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Jeimer Candelario.

That led to some extra playing time for players like Martini and Thompson. Martini hit two homers on Opening Day but has added just one more since then and is currently batting .177/.200/.329 for the season overall. Thompson is one of the fastest players in the league but hasn’t hit much. With the Reds this year, he has struck out in 11 of his 18 plate appearances.

Friedl has hit .267/.341/.456 in his career and should give a boost to the lineup. Capel could as well, but it’s also possible he’s behind Friedl, Will Benson, Spencer Steer and Fraley on the outfield/designated hitter depth chart. But perhaps he’ll fill Thompson’s role as a speedy bench outfielder, though with better abilities in the batter’s box. Capel still has an option remaining and can be easily sent back down to the minors at a later date if the Reds so choose.

Montas hit the IL a couple of weeks ago after being hit by a comebacker on his right forearm. The x-rays were negative but the club wanted to give him a breather as the soreness and swelling went down. He has now returned after a minimum stay on the IL, as hoped. Nick Martinez made a couple of starts in his absence but made a relief appearance on the weekend. Montas will slot into the rotation alongside Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft.

Gibaut, 30, has been on the injured list all year due to a right forearm strain. He has tried rehabbing a couple of times but keeps getting shut down with renewed soreness. Just over a week ago, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer relayed on X that the righty was shut down again and going for another exam. Today’s transfer means he’s ineligible to return until 60 days from his initial IL placement, which would be late May. That doesn’t seem to be possible at the moment since he’s not throwing and would need some time to ramp even if he is soon cleared to throw.

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