Headlines

  • A’s Designate Adam Kolarek, Option Cristian Pache
  • Blue Jays Sign Sergio Romo
  • Bryce Harper To Undergo Thumb Surgery
  • Royals Trade Carlos Santana To Mariners, Promote Vinnie Pasquantino
  • Major League Baseball Issues 12 Suspensions For Angels – Mariners Brawl
  • Cardinals Place Jack Flaherty, Harrison Bader On Injured List
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Oakland Athletics
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Tracker
    • 2021-22 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2022-23 MLB Free Agent List
    • Top 50 Free Agents
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2022
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Arbitration Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Frankie Montas

White Sox Discussing Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas Trades With A’s

By Darragh McDonald | March 15, 2022 at 5:04pm CDT

It’s been long suspected that the Athletics were going to undergo a roster teardown after the lockout. Those predictions have been coming true in recent days, as the club has already traded Chris Bassitt to the Mets and Matt Olson to the Braves. Among their most likely trade candidates, they still have third baseman Matt Chapman, along with starting pitchers Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. When it comes to those pitchers, the White Sox are among the teams interested, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

The Pale Hose already have an excellent front three in their rotation with Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito and Dylan Cease. However, there are some question marks in the backend. For one, Dallas Keuchel had a rough season last year, throwing 162 innings with an ERA of 5.28. As for Michael Kopech, he missed most of 2018 and all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery and then opted out of the 2020 pandemic season. Last year was mostly about getting him re-acclimated to pitching and building up his arm strength. While he fared well, putting up an ERA of 3.50, he only amassed 69 1/3 innings. While he may be able to handle a starter’s workload this year, it’s certainly not a sure thing.

In terms of depth, the club has Jonathan Stiever and Jimmy Lambert on the 40-man. Both are optionable and likely to be in Triple-A until an injury creates a need for their services. Vince Velasquez was also just signed to bolster the depth, perhaps serving as a long man out of the bullpen to start the year.

Adding Manaea or Montas to this group and bumping everyone down a peg would surely bolster the staff as a whole. Manaea pitched 179 1/3 innings last year with a 3.91 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate and 5.4% walk rate. He’s scheduled to hit free agency at the end of the season and is projected to earn a salary of $10.2MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Montas, meanwhile, tossed 187 frames with a 3.37 ERA, 26.6% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. He’s projected for a $5.2MM salary and comes with an extra year of control.

One obstacle the White Sox might face is their farm system, or lack thereof. On Baseball America’s most recent Organization Talent Rankings, the club’s system came dead last. In order to pull off a major trade, they would have to further deplete what it already arguably the weakest system in the league.

However, the club will surely want to take advantage of what is a very strong MLB team that just made the postseason in back-t0-back seasons for the first time in their 120-year history. With the Twins and Guardians still aiming to compete and the Tigers making strong moves to emerge from a rebuild, the South Siders may be willing to take that hit to strike while their competitive window is wide open.

Share 0 Retweet 11 Send via email0

Chicago White Sox Oakland Athletics Frankie Montas Sean Manaea

159 comments

Rays Among Teams Interested In Matt Chapman, Seiya Suzuki

By Steve Adams | March 15, 2022 at 10:03am CDT

The Rays are among the teams with interest in Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, and they’re also one of the teams still bidding on star NPB outfielder Seiya Suzuki. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal hears the same, adding that Tampa Bay has also spoken to Oakland about right-hander Frankie Montas.

Either of the two bats listed would represent large-scale expenditures, at least by the Rays’ generally modest standards. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $9.5MM salary for Chapman this season, and he’d be eligible for arbitration one final time next offseason before reaching the open market upon conclusion of the 2023 season. Suzuki, meanwhile, is drawing interest from a wide field of teams and figures to command a weighty multi-year deal himself.

The 28-year-old Chapman’s offensive production has taken a nosedive in recent years after a pair of MVP-caliber seasons in 2018-19. Since Opening Day 2020, Chapman has managed a .215/.306/.431 batting line, still showing good power (.216 ISO, 37 homers in 774 plate appearances) but with an alarming jump from a 22.8% strikeout rate to a 33.1% mark. Chapman’s 2020 season was cut short by hip surgery, though, and it’s possible that the injury which led to that operation and the lingering aftereffects have hampered him at the dish.

Where Chapman hasn’t missed a beat is with the glove. A two-time Platinum Glove winner and three-time Gold Glover at the hot corner, Chapman is widely regarded as one of the best defensive players in the sport. His 78 Defensive Runs Saved since debuting in 2017 are the third-most in baseball, at any position, trailing only Mookie Betts (81) and Andrelton Simmons (79). Chapman ranks third in MLB in Ultimate Zone Rating during that time as well, trailing that same pair. Meanwhile, Statcast ranks him 10th among all big leaguers with 49 Outs Above Average in that same time.

As for Suzuki, he’s been posted by the Hiroshima Carp and will head to the Majors in the midst of his prime, at age 27. Suzuki is generally regarded as one of the best players in Japan at the moment, if not the best overall. He turned in a mammoth .317/.433/.636 batting line with 38 home runs, 26 doubles and nine steals in 533 plate appearances this past season in NPB, all while walking 87 times against 88 strikeouts (16.3% vs. 16.5%). This was far from a one-year fluke; dating back to 2018, Suzuki’s right-handed bat has produced a dominant .319/.435/.592 slash line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples in 2179 plate appearances.

Rays fans may be a bit skeptical after seeing their team’s two-year, $12MM investment in Yoshi Tsutsugo quickly go south. However, Suzuki is younger and far more highly regarded as a player than Tsutsugo was at the time of his own free-agent foray. Even in NPB, Tsutsugo came with considerable strikeout concerns and minimal defensive value. The variance in opinions seems likely to be reflected in the size of contract Suzuki ultimately commands. Prior to Suzuki’s formal posting, multiple team evaluators told MLBTR that Suzuki could be an everyday corner outfielder in the big leagues. One particularly bullish evaluator called Suzuki the best player to come out of Japan since Shohei Ohtani (not a direct comparison between the two, to be clear).

Looking to Montas, he’d give the Rays a big-time arm to plug into a rotation that looks heavily reliant on younger talent. Tampa Bay is hoping for a bounceback from Ryan Yarbrough and better health from offseason signee Corey Kluber, but the group beyond that pairing consists of Yonny Chirinos (returning from Tommy John surgery), Shane McClanahan, Luis Patino, Drew Rasmussen and Shane Baz. It’s an undeniably talented collection of starters, but Montas would provide some more stability and arguably more upside than some of those current options.

The 28-year-old (29 next week) just wrapped up a 2021 season that saw him post a career-high 187 frames with a 3.37 ERA, a 26.6% strikeout rate and a 7.3% walk rate. Projected by Swartz to earn $5.8MM next season, Montas is controlled through 2023 and is one of many players the rebuilding A’s are open to moving. He missed the second half of the 2019 season while serving an 80-game PED suspension and struggled in his 2020 return, but last year’s standout showing netted Montas a sixth-place finish in American League Cy Young voting. Unlike Chapman and Suzuki, his current salary is a bit more in the Rays’ general wheelhouse.

Ultimately, though, the payroll is going to be pivotal in determining just how big the Rays can go. Tampa Bay is currently projected for an $85.4MM Opening Day mark that would represent a new franchise record. That said, there have also been reports about possible trades of Kevin Kiermaier ($12MM salary), Austin Meadows (projected $4.3MM) and/or Tyler Glasnow (projected $5.8MM — any of which could alter the team’s immediate and 2023 financial outlooks. Glasnow, notably, is expected to miss most of the 2022 season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

Share 0 Retweet 9 Send via email0

Oakland Athletics Tampa Bay Rays Frankie Montas Matt Chapman Seiya Suzuki

47 comments

Twins, A’s Have Discussed Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas

By Steve Adams | March 14, 2022 at 12:07pm CDT

Continuing on with the frenetic pace they’ve set in recent days, the Twins have been discussing trade possibilities with the Athletics, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Minnesota and Oakland have discussed scenarios that would send lefty Sean Manaea or right-hander Frankie Montas to the Twins.

The Twins and A’s were logical trade partners coming out of the lockout, given Minnesota’s dire need for rotation help and the fact that Oakland had at least three starters expected to be available: Manaea, Montas and the since-traded Chris Bassitt (who was dealt to the Mets this weekend). The Twins have already upgraded their starting staff by plucking Sonny Gray from the Reds in Sunday afternoon trade, but there are still clear holes to fill in a rotation that presently includes Gray, Dylan Bundy and youngsters Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan.

Either Manaea or Montas would further deepen a rapidly changing Twins roster. The former figures to be more attainable and have a lower price tag than the latter, as Manaea will be a free agent at season’s end. Montas, meanwhile, is controlled through the 2023 season via arbitration.

A former No. 34 overall draft pick, the 30-year-old Manaea has come roaring back from 2018 shoulder surgery to reestablish himself as a quality big league starter. Since returning late in the 2019 season, Manaea has tossed 263 innings of 3.73 ERA ball with an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate and a fantastic 5.2% walk rate. Manaea made 11 starts during the Covid-shortened 2020 season and took the ball 32 times last year while racking up 179 1/3 innings, so the shoulder issues that derailed his 2018-19 seasons look to be in the past. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $10.2MM this coming season.

Montas, who’ll turn 29 in a week, just wrapped a career year with the A’s. The 2021 season was the first time in Montas’ big league career that he crossed the 100-inning threshold, but he nearly jumped all the way to 200 frames, racking up 187 innings of 3.37 ERA ball to go along with a 26.6% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. Montas averaged 96.6 mph on his heater and posted huge marks in swinging-strike rate (13.7%) and opponents’ chase rate (35.9%). He’s projected to earn $5.2MM in arbitration this year.

It should be noted that Montas did miss significant time in 2019 after being hit with an 80-game PED suspension, and he struggled considerably in his return to the mound in 2020 (5.60 ERA in 53 innings/11  starts). That said, Montas has consistently posted strong strikeout and walk rates in his big league career and would, as is the case with the recently acquired Gray, give the Twins a key rotation piece for at least the next two seasons. Accordingly, the cost to acquire him figures to be higher than the cost to acquire Manaea.

Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has said in the hours since completing last night’s Josh Donaldson deal with the Yankees that Minnesota has many irons in the fire, and talks with the A’s figure to just be one of many possibilities they’re exploring. Minnesota has, in the past few days, traded Mitch Garver to Texas in a deal to acquire Isiah Kiner-Falefa; traded pitching prospect Chase Petty to the Reds to acquire Gray; and traded Kiner-Falefa, Donaldson and catcher Ben Rortvedt to the Yankees in a deal that netted Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela and upwards of $40MM in salary relief. They’ve since been rumored to have interest in free agent shortstop Trevor Story. That, paired with the acquisition of Gray and talks with Oakland, show that even amid a dramatic roster reshaping, Minnesota is aiming to contend in the AL Central for the 2022 season.

Share 0 Retweet 5 Send via email0

Minnesota Twins Oakland Athletics Frankie Montas Sean Manaea

41 comments

Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: Impact Players With A Chance To Move

By Steve Adams | February 11, 2022 at 11:00pm CDT

MLB Impact Trade Candidates

Earlier in the week, MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes published our list of the 14 players we consider to be the likeliest trade candidates following the ongoing MLB lockout. That list was the result of an extensive talk with Tim, myself and Anthony Franco, wherein we considered the possibility of more than 100 players and whether they could (or could not) viably change hands. While that Athletics-heavy list contained who we agreed to be the likeliest, it certainly didn’t represent every plausible trade candidate in our eyes.

As Tim noted within that post, we wound up sorting our list of plausible trade candidates into various buckets/tiers. The top 14 was simply the likeliest, regardless of contract or quality of player, but for the remainder of the exercise, we chose to categorize things based on how impactful a player might be to his new team. This, admittedly, is subjective. We didn’t establish a defined set of concrete parameters in labeling this group “impact” players; rather, we focused on mid-rotation (or better) starting pitchers, high-leverage relievers and hitters with recent All-Star-worthy performances (even if they didn’t necessarily result in an actual All-Star berth). Three wins above replacement in a given season wasn’t a firm cutoff, but we did ask at multiple points whether we a player had recently or could be reasonably expected/projected to turn in a 3-WAR season while sorting them.

Once these players were tiered, we further broke them down by whether they were legitimately plausible candidate to change teams or just someone whom other clubs would be trying to pry away. Basically, none of Tim, Anthony or myself would bat an eye to see Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas traded. Bryan Reynolds or Cedric Mullins, though? We’ll probably hear about teams trying to pry those players loose from their respective clubs (hence their inclusion), but a deal coming together seems like a long shot and would register as a mild surprise (if only because of the asking price and remaining club control).

As Tim explained, some of these players are interconnected. While the Reds have three starters who could plausibly change hands, we don’t necessarily think all three will move. It’s the same with the A’s roster. They could plausibly move multiple players — GM David Forst said amid November reports of a mandate to slash payroll that they’d have to listen on the whole roster — but that doesn’t mean the A’s are going to trade seven or eight players.

Anthony will follow this list up in the near future with a collection of solid regulars who we believe could change hands and/or will be in high demand following the lockout, but for now, here’s our second tier of trade candidates — legitimate impact players who could plausibly change teams but perhaps aren’t as likely to go as those listed by Tim earlier in the week…

Plausible/Decent Chance to Move

Luis Castillo / SP / Reds

The Reds’ offseason transactions since the close of the 2020 season have included a salary dump of Raisel Iglesias, non-tendering another quality reliever (Archie Bradley), trading Tucker Barnhart to Detroit, and placing Wade Miley on waivers rather than picking up a reasonable $10MM option. GM Nick Krall kicked off the 2021-22 offseason by declaring a need to “align our payroll to our resources.” Rumors of trades involving Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray (listed among our 14 likeliest candidates due to his age and larger price tag) and Tyler Mahle naturally followed.

Even if the Reds aren’t actively shopping the 29-year-old Castillo, teams will be calling to inquire, and Krall and his staff will be listening.  The Reds probably aren’t going to shop him and simply let him go for the best offer, as they control him through 2023. They could always hold and market him again this summer or next offseason if no enticing offer materializes post-lockout.

Still, Castillo might be the best starting pitcher who could feasibly change hands. He got out to a brutal start in 2021, but over his final 22 starts, Castillo was excellent. He racked up 135 1/3 innings (six-plus innings per start) and notched a 2.73 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate, a 9.4% walk rate and a massive 59.9% ground-ball rate. Castillo’s ugly April/May results skew both his 2021 numbers and his collective numbers from 2019-21, but over the past three seasons he’s still posted a 3.61 ERA while fanning 27% of his opponents.

Maybe he’s not a true “ace,” but Castillo is a playoff-caliber starter for virtually any team. He’s projected to earn $7.6MM in 2022 and would be owed one more arbitration raise in 2023. Essentially, he’ll cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $20MM for the next two seasons — a bargain rate that should be reflected in a huge asking price from the Reds.

Tyler Mahle / SP / Reds

Mahle doesn’t have the name value that Castillo brings to the table, and his track record of success is shorter. Nonetheless, he’s blossomed into a sharp mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons, sporting a 3.72 ERA with a 28.1% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. Unlike Castillo, he’s a fly-ball pitcher, which has at times bitten him at his bandbox of a home stadium; Mahle has given up 30 home runs in 227 2/3 frames dating back to Opening Day 2020, and 24 of them have come at home. He posted a 2.30 ERA away from Great American Ball Park in 2021 and, in his career, has a 5.09 ERA at home versus a 3.72 mark on the road.

A spacious home park would benefit Mahle perhaps even more than your average starter, although his penchant for yielding fly-balls will likely always make him a bit susceptible to the long-ball. Mahle has also been more of a guy who pitches into the sixth rather than completes six or seven frames (5 1/3 innings per start since 2020), but that’s increasingly common in today’s era of aggressive bullpen usage.

Mahle’s shorter track record may give some fans pause, but teams are likely comfortable projecting him as a quality arm based on the past two seasons of missing bats at a high level. And, that shorter track record has left him with a lower price point in arbitration, as he’s projected to earn $5.6MM in 2022. Like Castillo, he’s controlled through 2023, so there’s no immediate urgency to move him — especially given his affordable price tag. Still, teams will be calling, and the Reds can justifiably ask for a strong return.

Frankie Montas / SP / Athletics

Sticking with pitchers who have two remaining years of club control, Montas joins a long list of Athletics who could be traded post-lockout. Amid reports of a mandate to slash payroll, GM David Forst outwardly acknowledged back in November that the A’s will have to listen to offers on the majority of their roster.

Montas, unlike free-agents-to-be Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt, is controlled through 2023. And unlike Matt Olson and Matt Chapman, his projected $5.6MM salary is a bit easier for the A’s to stomach. That’s why Montas is in this “bucket” of our trade candidate rankings, but even if he’s not as likely to move as some of his teammates, a deal is certainly still plausible.

Though Montas isn’t without red flags — he served an 80-game PED suspension in 2019 and had never reached 100 innings in a big league season prior to 2021 — it’s hard to ignore the quality results. Since 2018, Montas has pitched 401 innings of 3.57 ERA ball with a 24.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 43.7% ground-ball rate. His swinging-strike rate has continued to improve, and this past season’s 26.9% strikeout rate was a career-best. He’ll turn 29 in May, and he’s an upgrade for any team’s rotation.

Tyler Glasnow / SP / Rays

Glasnow is the most talented name on this list and, when healthy, looked the part of a legitimate ace with Tampa Bay. From 2019-21, Glasnow tallied 206 innings with a 2.80 ERA and fielding-independent marks to match. He punched out a ridiculous 36% of his opponents, walked just 7.8 percent of them and kept the ball on the ground at a 45% clip. Among the 114 starting pitchers who totaled at least 200 innings in that time, Glasnow ranks tenth in swinging-strike rate and second to only Shane Bieber in his combined percentage of called and swinging strikes. Only Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole had higher strikeout rates.

With that type of profile, two years of team control remaining and a projected $5.8MM salary for the 2022 season, a healthy Glasnow would be a no-brainer for the Rays to keep. Of course, Glasnow is not healthy. He’s likely to miss most, if not all of the upcoming season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last August. Arb-eligible players who miss an entire season due to injury typically sign on for a repeat of their prior year’s salary, meaning that in 2023 Glasnow will likely pitch on the same salary as 2022. Using that same $5.8MM projection, the Rays would be looking at about $11.6MM for one season of Glasnow, when his workload would need to be monitored coming back from major surgery.

Glasnow’s career-high innings total in the Majors is 2018’s 111 2/3, and his career-high for any professional season is when he reached 155 innings between Triple-A and Pittsburgh combined back in 2017. Realistically, the Rays would probably be thrilled to get 100-120 innings from Glasnow in 2023 — and an $11-12MM price tag on that modest total is rather steep for a team with Tampa Bay’s general payroll concerns.

Other clubs would welcome the opportunity to take that chance, however. We’ve seen two-year pacts for Tommy John rehabbers like Drew Smyly ($10MM with the Cubs), Michael Pineda ($10MM with the Twins) and Garrett Richards ($15.5MM with the Padres). Glasnow’s price tag is toward the lower end of that spectrum in terms of dollars, but the cost of trading prospects also has to enter into the equation. For an arm of this caliber, however, there are plenty of teams that would take the plunge.

Glasnow, for his part, recently told Chris Rose that he strongly hopes to remain with the Rays (YouTube link). Perhaps there’s a contract to be worked out that could benefit both parties, but Glasnow himself acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding his status and that president of baseball operations Erik Neander will have to listen to some offers if and when other teams come calling.

Josh Hader / RP / Brewers

Teams have been trying to get their hands on Hader for years, and the Brewers have steadfastly refused all overtures. The reluctance is understandable, as Hader has established himself as arguably the best reliever in the sport. In 282 1/3 career innings, he’s posted a 2.26 ERA and fanned exactly four out of every nine batters faced. No longer being used for multiple innings at a time, Hader posted a career-best 1.23 ERA in 58 2/3 frames this past season. The homer he allowed to Freddie Freeman in the NLDS isn’t a great note on which to close a season, but looking at Hader’s broader playoff track record, he has a 1.88 ERA and 23-to-3 K/BB ratio in 14 1/3 innings.

Trading the game’s most impactful reliever wouldn’t be easy for president of baseball operation David Stearns, but Hader’s value is at its apex. He’s also projected to see his salary spike to $10MM in 2022, with a fourth and final arbitration raise coming in 2023. Hader is dominant, but the typically low-payroll Brewers are flirting with what would be a record $123MM payroll. It’s not accurate to suggest that the presence of a second powerhouse reliever, Devin Williams, makes Hader expendable, but Williams’ excellence would at least slightly soften the blow of a theoretical Hader trade.

Milwaukee could still stand to improve its offense, and moving Hader could both free up some financial resources and simultaneously net some immediate help for the big league lineup. The Brewers don’t have to move Hader now, to be clear. However, they probably wouldn’t move him in-season if they’re contending — meaning it’s now or next winter, when they’d be marketing one year  and a $15MM+ salary. That would net far less long-term value. It’s a fine line to walk.

Joey Gallo / OF / Yankees

Gallo popped 13 homers in 58 games following a July trade from Texas to the Bronx, but it’s fair to say the deal didn’t work out as New York had hoped. Gallo’s strikeout rate, which had dipped a bit with the Rangers, spiked to 38.6% as a Yankee. The resulting .160/.303/.404 batting line in 228 plate appearances is one of the more bizarre slashes you’ll ever see from a regular player.

Struggles in New York aside, Gallo was hitting .223/.379/.490 through 388 plate appearances in Texas and had bashed 25 homers in that span — putting him on pace for what would’ve been his third career 40-homer season had he not dropped off with the Yankees.

Gallo has as much power as anyone in baseball, and he’s made himself into a strong defender in the outfield corners (who can handle center from time to time). However, he’s projected to earn $10.2MM in arbitration this season, and it’d be understandable if the Yankees were hesitant at that price based on his post-trade struggles. New York is projected to top $226MM in luxury tax concerns, so moving Gallo could prove beneficial if owner Hal Steinbrenner is again intent on dipping beneath the threshold (wherever that’ll ultimately lie in 2022).

The Yankees have Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton as outfield options, with Estevan Florial serving as a possible reserve. Were they to give Gallo a change of scenery by moving him to a team seeking pop in the outfield, they could always sign a free agent to replenish some of the depth. It’s not clear that the Yankees will shop Gallo once the lockout lifts, but the New York Post’s Joel Sherman wrote about the possibility back in October, reporting within that as many as seven other teams tried to land Gallo at the deadline. If he’s on the block, there’ll be interest.

Longer Shots due to Asking Price and/or Remaining Club Control

Ramon Laureano / CF/ Athletics

Given Forst’s comments and the reports of forthcoming payroll reduction, it’s viable that anyone earning a salary of some note will at least be discussed. Laureano, projected to earn $2.8MM this coming season after his first trip through the arbitration process, also represents one of the few plausible center field options on the market, which should lead to plenty of teams inquiring on his availability.

Trading Laureano is more complicated than moving some of his teammates. He’s currently in the midst of an 80-game PED ban which, beyond raising questions about his performance to date, could come with major service time implications. Laureano still needs to serve 27 games of that suspension, which could impact his path to free agency. He currently has three years and 14 days of service time, meaning he’d need 158 days in 2022 to cross the threshold into four years of service and remain on track to hit the open market post-2024. There are only 187 days in a standard season, making it unlikely he’ll end up accruing the necessary time on the roster to get to that point. (Remember that off-days spent on the MLB roster count as a day of service.)

There’s always the small chance that some other factor impacts this trajectory (e.g. the ongoing labor talks, a potentially shortened 2022 schedule, a grievance filing), but as it stands, Laureano could wind up under team control through 2025 rather than 2024. An extra year of team control both heightens his appeal but also makes it tougher to trade him.

Beyond the service-time considerations, Laureano underwent core muscle surgery after the season, which adds another layer to a complicated scenario. But looking solely at Laureano’s numbers, he’s a difference-maker for a team in need of a center fielder (e.g. Phillies, Marlins, Guardians). A career .263/.335/.465 hitter with 25-homer pop, good speed and plus center field defense isn’t a hard sell.

Jesse Winker / OF / Reds

I explored Winker’s situation at length last week, with the bottom-line point being that it makes little sense to listen to offers on starting pitchers with two years of club control remaining (e.g. Castillo, Mahle, Gray) without doing the same on Winker. The 28-year-old slugger has had some issues with durability, doesn’t hit lefties well (though he’ll still draw his walks against them) and isn’t a great defender. That’s an odd trio of qualities to focus on when talking about someone’s trade candidacy, but the other side of the coin is more compelling: Winker’s production against right-handed pitching is at Bryce Harper/Juan Soto levels of brilliance.

Since 2020, Harper and Soto are the only two qualified hitters in baseball with a better mark than Winker’s 169 wRC+ against righties. In terms of more traditional slash metrics, he’s batting an outrageous .322/.417/.619 when holding the platoon advantage. With all the talent on the Reds’ roster, I think Cincinnati should be in aggressive, win-now mode. Krall’s early comments and their dealings since 2020 suggest otherwise, however, and if you’re going to listen on the other guys with four-to-five years of MLB service — why not listen on Winker as well? Cleveland, Colorado, Philadelphia and so many others are looking for offensive upgrades in the outfield corners.

Pablo Lopez / SP / Marlins

As is a common refrain on this list, the Marlins have no urgency to move Lopez, who’ll turn 26 in March. He was limited to 102 2/3 innings by shoulder issues last season and has yet to top 111 2/3 frames in a Major League season, but Lopez has been pretty darn good when healthy. From 2020-21, in particular, he’s compiled 31 starts and 160 innings of 3.26 ERA ball with a 26.4% strikeout rate and a 6.7% walk rate. He’s in his first trip through arbitration and projected for a highly reasonable $2.5MM salary.

So, why even bother considering a move? The Marlins are still hopeful of landing some help in center field, and they’re also so deep in pitching talent that it borders on comical. The old adage that a team can never have too much pitching always rings in the back of our minds, but the Marlins aren’t short on options beyond Lopez. Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Elieser Hernandez, Jesus Luzardo, Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Nick Neidert, Cody Poteet and Daniel Castano are all on the 40-man — and top prospect Max Meyer is quickly rising through the minors. Injured top prospect Jake Eder will be back in 2023.

Jose Ramirez  / 2B, 3B / Guardians

The favorite subject of so many hypothetical trade scenarios from fans, Ramirez does feel likely to end up traded … at some point. The question is whether now’s the time. Cleveland has him for $11MM this year plus a $13MM option in 2023. Given Ramirez’s elite play, there’s little chance of the Guardians extending him beyond that 2023 season, but there’s also good sense in Cleveland taking another run at the AL Central with Ramirez as a focal point. The pitching is still excellent, and while the lineup clearly needs another bat or two, the 2022 payroll is currently projected at only $49MM. There’s room to add some help for Ramirez and Franmil Reyes, and a deep farm system could also provide some in-house upgrades.

It’s also impossible to look at the situation without accounting for public relations. We’re only a year removed from Cleveland trading Francisco Lindor in a wildly unpopular move, and many fans’ anger with further fueled by the team’s name change. The newly-named Guardians are looking to usher in a “new era” of Cleveland baseball, and trading their best player for a second straight offseason isn’t a great way to foster good will.

If the first half of the season goes poorly, I’d expect Ramirez to be among the most talked-about names at the 2022 trade deadline, and there’d be a much stronger chance he moves at that point. With regard to the offseason, however, there’s just not enough urgency to push something across the line unless Toronto or another on-paper suitor puts forth an over-the-top offer. Even then, fans who’ve already purchased new Guardians gear bearing Ramirez’s name are going to feel rather jilted. It’d be tough for the front office to make this move now.

Bryan Reynolds / OF / Pirates

Reynolds is the best player on a last-place team that’s squarely in the midst of a rebuild so it’s hardly a surprise that he’s been in trade rumors dating back to the summer. Rival teams know the Pirates are open for business, and it’s only natural they’d try to acquire a center fielder capable of posting a .302/.390/.522 slash like the one Reynolds logged in 2021.

On the one hand, there’s an argument that the rebuilding Buccos ought to listen on anyone — and they surely will. But on the other hand, Reynolds is 27 and controlled another four seasons. His trade value won’t diminish substantially if the Pirates hold onto him, giving the fans at least one recognizable and marketable star player. Reynolds is a Super Two player who’s projected to earn an eminently affordable $4.5MM in 2022, so there’s no financial pressure. Everyone has their price in a trade, especially on a team like the Pirates, but for some context, that price reportedly included Mariners uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez (and more) when the two teams last talked. Baseball America currently ranks Rodriguez as the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball.

Cedric Mullins / OF / Orioles

Most of what was written about Reynolds applies to Mullins. The Orioles’ breakout star put together a 30-30 season last year while hitting .291/.360/.518 and is controllable for another four seasons — through age 30. No one expects the Orioles to contend in 2022, but they’ll get a look at top prospects like Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez and D.L. Hall this year. Reinforcements from the farm are on the way, and it’s feasible that by 2023 (and certainly by 2024), they could be on the cusp of turning a corner. Mullins will be under control, affordable and in his prime at that point.

The Orioles aren’t going to declare anyone on their Major League roster “untouchable,” but Mullins would only be available for a staggeringly strong offer. A Mullins trade doesn’t seem likely, but teams are going to at least try to force GM Mike Elias’ hand.

Ketel Marte / 2B, CF / Diamondbacks

Teams have been trying to pry Marte from the D-backs for more than a year. Arizona reportedly took the extra step of plainly telling rival clubs in early July — weeks before the trade deadline — that Marte wouldn’t be moved. That probably didn’t stop clubs from trying, and teams will be trying again post-lockout. The Marlins, Yankees, Mariners and quite a few others have at least been speculatively linked to Marte, whose team-friendly deal heightens his appeal. Marte will earn $8MM in 2022, and his contract calls for a $10MM team option in 2023 and a $12MM team option in 2024.

Dating back to 2019, Marte boasts a .318/.374/.543 batting line with 48 dingers, 79 doubles, 11 triples and a lowly 14% strikeout rate (versus a 7.6% walk rate). He’s rated poorly in center field, from a defensive standpoint, but is well-regarded defensively at second base. A 28-year-old switch-hitter with power, some speed, plenty of versatility and a grand total of $30MM owed to him over the next three years ($21MM of which isn’t even guaranteed) is wildly appealing. The D-backs, however, have shown little inclination to move him in the past, and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye echoed that sentiment in November, calling Marte a “cornerstone” player around whom the D-backs can build.

Zac Gallen / SP / Diamondbacks

Twenty-six years old and controlled another four seasons, Gallen is precisely the type of pitcher that pitching-needy teams like the Rangers, Twins, Nationals and so many others would dream of acquiring. A forearm issue slowed him in 2021 and limited his workload, but Gallen has now made 50 starts in the Majors with a 3.46 ERA, a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate to show for it. He’s already been traded twice — going from St. Louis to Miami in the Marcell Ozuna deal before being flipped to Arizona in what amounted to a rare prospect-for-prospect swap sending Jazz Chisholm back to the Fish.

The D-backs didn’t even trade Merrill Kelly at this past summer’s deadline when he was a fourth starter with 1.5 cheap years left on his contract. It’s hard to imagine they’ll be excited about the idea of giving up four seasons of Gallen — particularly when his stock is down a bit, owing to last season’s arm issue. Gallen closed out the 2021 season quite well, with a 3.19 ERA and 52-to-15 K/BB ratio in his final 48 frames (eight starts). Sawdaye listed Gallen as a “cornerstone” player right alongside Marte, adding that the D-backs never plan to fully punt on a given season. Their signing of Mark Melancon for two years and $14MM meshes with the notion that this is not a team on the brink of a full-fledged teardown. Teams can try to nab Gallen, but it’d likely require some young MLB-ready talent going back to Arizona. Overall, the odds are low.

David Bednar / RP / Pirates

One of several pieces acquired in last winter’s Joe Musgrove trade, the 27-year-old Bednar stepped up and solidified himself as the Pirates’ likely closer in 2022. Through 60 2/3 innings, Bednar posted a tiny 2.23 ERA with a 32.5% strikeout rate, an 8.0% walk rate and a 41.4% grounder rate. Bednar yielded only five home runs all season (0.74 HR/9) and averaged 97 mph on his heater. He looks the part of a legitimate high-leverage weapon, and he’s controlled for five more years — all the way through 2026.

With such good results, a pre-arbitration salary and so much team control remaining, Bednar probably isn’t going anywhere. (As a bonus, he’s a Pittsburgh-area native.) The Pirates can’t (or at least won’t) simply trade every player who shows some semblance of value, after all. That said, the last thing most rebuilding clubs need is a high-end closer, and bullpen help is always in demand. Bednar will be 29 or 30 by the time the Pirates are realistically turning a corner, and the attrition rate on relievers is higher than anywhere else on the diamond. The argument for capitalizing on his value right now is pretty clear, but as with the rest of this “long shot” list, it’s hard to see a team meeting what would surely be a pretty substantial asking price.

Share 0 Retweet 9 Send via email0

2022 Post-Lockout Trade Market Arizona Diamondbacks Baltimore Orioles Cincinnati Reds Miami Marlins Milwaukee Brewers MLBTR Originals New York Yankees Newsstand Oakland Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates Tampa Bay Rays Bryan Reynolds Cedric Mullins David Bednar Frankie Montas Jesse Winker Joey Gallo Josh Hader Ketel Marte Luis Castillo Pablo Lopez Ramon Laureano Tyler Glasnow Tyler Mahle Zac Gallen

178 comments

Mariners Rumors: Story, Chapman, Suzuki, Rotation

By Steve Adams | November 17, 2021 at 9:25am CDT

The Mariners are known to be in the market for infield upgrades, with both Kris Bryant and Marcus Semien among their early targets. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times adds a few names to the pile, reporting that they’re also intrigued by the possibility of signing Trevor Story to play second base on a regular basis. Divish also indicates that the Mariners have high levels of interest in A’s third baseman Matt Chapman and several of Oakland’s available pitchers, including Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt.

Beyond that group, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told Dick Fain of SportsRadio 950 KJR this week that the Mariners would be interested in star outfielder Seiya Suzuki if and when he’s posted by the Hiroshima Carp of Nippon Professional Baseball (Twitter link). The Carp do plan to post Suzuki, but that process has not yet officially begun.

Dipoto has already made clear in the young offseason that his team will be more aggressive in free agency than in years past and given at least some indications as to the types of players he’ll target. He spoke earlier this month of a desire to sign “adaptable” free agents, naming both Semien and Javier Baez as players who’ve shown a willingness to move around the diamond. He’s also made it clear to J.P. Crawford that he’ll play shortstop in Seattle both next year and in the long term, which could well take the Mariners out of the running for any of the market’s top free agents who are set on remaining at that position.

[Related: Seattle Mariners’ Offseason Outlook]

While Story has been entrenched at shortstop in Colorado, he could certainly help his market if he shows a willingness to play another position. He’s typically been a plus defender at short, of course, but that only makes it likelier that he’d be a high-quality defender on the other side of the bag. Openness to playing elsewhere shouldn’t be a necessity, but given that Story had something of a down season by his standards, an open-minded outlook ought to broaden his appeal.

Unlike Story, there’d be no position change for Chapman in virtually any scenario. His elite defense at third base is perhaps the most appealing element of his overall game, and the Mariners have an obvious opening at the hot corner after declining Kyle Seager’s $20MM option. Chapman’s strikeout rate has soared and his batting average has dropped since a 2020 hip injury that required surgery, but he still draws plenty of walks and hits with power.

Chapman is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.5MM in 2022 and is controlled another two seasons. He could draw interest from around a third of the league, if not more, so the Mariners will hardly be alone in any potential pursuit. Attempting to expand talks to include one of the Athletics’ starters would only ramp up the price, and such a package may not be realistic if Dipoto’s comments about refusing to trade from the very top end of his prospect capital hold true (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic). “There’s no scenario where we will move the top prospects in our system, the guys who are prominent in our system,” Dipoto said at the GM Meetings just nine days ago.

Turning to the 27-year-old Suzuki, he’d be something of an odd fit — at least from a defensive standpoint. While Suzuki briefly played some third base early in his career, he’s settled in as a quality right fielder, winning four Gold Gloves at that position in Japan. The general consensus MLBTR received when speaking to MLB scouts and evaluators familiar with Suzuki was that he can be a well-rounded, everyday right fielder in the Majors but isn’t really an option in the infield, for defensive reasons.

The Mariners already have numerous outfield options, including Mitch Haniger, Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, Taylor Trammell and yet-to-debut top prospect Julio Rodriguez. Not all are proven at the MLB level, of course, but winning the bidding on Suzuki would register as something of a surprise because of that depth — even with some DH at-bats available to help rotate four or five players through the outfield.

Perhaps the Mariners are more convinced Suzuki could move back to the infield on at least a part-time basis, or perhaps they simply believe his looming availability represents a unique opportunity to acquire an impact bat. (Suzuki, after all, has a .319/.435/.592 batting line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples dating back to 2018.) Regardless, Dipoto’s comment on the matter can’t be wholly ignored, even if the M’s seem an unlikely candidate to win the bidding when other interested parties have a more acute outfield need.

As for the reported interest in Oakland’s trio of available starting pitchers, it’s a good reminder that while there’s been a high level of focus on the Mariners’ quest to add at least one prominent bat to the lineup, they’ll also be in the market for one, if not two starting pitchers. The previously mentioned unwillingness to deal from the top of the system could make it tough to obtain a package of Chapman and a starting pitcher, but both Manaea and Bassitt would be one-year rentals, so acquiring either pitcher individually may not come with such a steep ask.

Whatever route they take, it’s increasingly evident that the Mariners are casting a very wide net as they look to end a two-decade playoff drought.

Share 0 Retweet 15 Send via email0

Oakland Athletics Seattle Mariners Chris Bassitt Frankie Montas Matt Chapman Sean Manaea Seiya Suzuki Trevor Story

156 comments

Athletics Appear Set For Significant Payroll Reduction

By Steve Adams | November 9, 2021 at 7:29pm CDT

7:29 pm: Forst addressed the club’s likely forthcoming payroll cuts this evening, telling Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link) the team is willing to field offers for any player on the roster. “This is the cycle for the A’s. We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.”

10:30 am: The Athletics’ stunning decision to let manager Bob Melvin leave to sign a three-year deal as the Padres’ new manager served as a portent for a bleak winter in Oakland, only increasing prior expectations that a payroll reduction was on the horizon. General manager David Forst spoke with John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle and others at this week’s GM Meetings, and while he didn’t outright say that the team plans to reduce its bottom line in 2022, he implied that another “step back” is certainly a possibility.

“I think right now we’re in the middle of those conversations with [ownership],” said Forst. “We don’t have exact direction yet. But you look at our history, and we have three- or four-year runs and recognize where we are makes it necessary to step back. But we have not gotten to that point yet with ownership.”

While Forst understandably sidestepped a definitive declaration on the team’s payroll direction, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that a pair of MLB executives told him Oakland is expected to slash payroll to as little as $50MM. One potential wrinkle as the A’s look to cut payroll, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, is the uncertainty surrounding the collective bargaining agreement. The league’s initial offer to the MLBPA included a proposed salary floor (in exchange for a reduction of the luxury tax threshold — a nonstarter for the players’ side of negotiations). Even though the MLBPA had no interest in the specifics of that particular proposal, the eventual possibility of a salary floor could come back to haunt the A’s if they gut the payroll early in the winter.

One way or another, it seems quite likely that the current Athletics’ core is going to be broken up this offseason — the question is to what extent rather than whether it’ll happen at all. Such an outcome wasn’t exactly difficult to foresee. I explored back in early September how, based on their typical payroll levels, the A’s were unlikely to spend to keep a deep arbitration class after projected raises to the likes of Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt and Frankie Montas (among others). Retaining that group would require an increase over this season’s $83.8MM payroll — already the fourth-highest in franchise history and not far below the team record of $92MM. That increase would come before making a single addition to the 2022 roster.

When looking for trade candidates on the Oakland roster, the top of that arbitration class is the most obvious place to begin. At $12MM, Olson leads the bunch in terms of expected salary, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s end-of-year projections. Each of Manaea ($10.2MM), Chapman ($9.5MM), Bassitt ($8.8MM) and Montas ($5.2MM) is also set to account for a notable portion of the team’s payroll next season.

The A’s would surely be open to moving outfielder Stephen Piscotty (still owed $8.25MM, including a 2023 option buyout) and shortstop Elvis Andrus ($7.25MM through 2022 after accounting for the portion of his salary paid by the Rangers). Neither player has much in the way of trade value at this point, however. Oakland currently projects for a payroll just north of $85MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. That figure includes MLBTR’s projected arb salaries, the two guaranteed contracts and a slate of pre-arb salaries to round out the roster.

Olson, Chapman and Montas all have two years of club control remaining. Manaea and Bassitt are set to become free agents next winter. While it’s possible, if not likely, that other players on the Oakland roster will also see their names pop up in trade talks, that quintet offers the best blend of productivity, affordability (for other clubs) and trade value (for the A’s). Here’s a quick, high-level look at each:

  • Olson (28 next year): A 2021 All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner, Olson leads all first basemen with 34 Defensive Runs Saved and a 22.8 Ultimate Zone Rating since 2017. He’s sixth among first basemen in Statcast’s Outs Above Average during that time. Olson swatted a career-best 39 home runs in 2021 and, most importantly, cut his once-problematic strikeout rate to an 16.8% level that is well below the league average. Olson walks at a high clip, has massive left-handed power, plays elite defense and looks to have made huge gains in his contact skills. He hit .271/.371/.540 in 2021 despite a cavernous home stadium.
  • Chapman (29 next year): As with Olson, Chapman is a preternatural defender. Since 2017, the two-time Platinum Glover leads third basemen in DRS (78) and UZR (48.7) and trails only Nolan Arenado in OAA (48). Chapman has huge power, but his contact trends have gone in the opposite direction of Olson. Chapman, whose 2020 season ended early due to hip surgery, struck out at a 22.8% clip from 2018-19 but a 33.1% pace in 2020-21. The glove is still elite, and Chapman has still bashed 37 homers in his past 774 plate appearances while walking at an 11.4% clip. The current version of Chapman has huge value, but if the strikeouts decline as he further distances himself from the hip injury, he has MVP-caliber talent.
  • Manaea (30 next year): Manaea’s 2018 season ended with major shoulder surgery, and he missed most of 2019 while on the mend. Since returning, he’s delivered 263 innings of 3.73 ERA  ball with near-identical reviews from fielding-independent marks like FIP (3.64) and SIERA (3.78). In that time, Manaea has a 24.8% strikeout rate, a 5.2% walk rate and a 43.8% grounder rate — all strong marks. He moved from a four-seamer to a sinker this season, and the 92.2 mph average on that sinker was the best velocity on his primary offering since his four-seamer sat 93.1 mph as a rookie in 2016. He’s a one-year rental, but a good one.
  • Bassitt (33 next year): A frightening injury that saw Bassitt struck in the face by a 100 mph-plus line drive in August looked like it might end his season. Bassitt, however, returned from surgery to repair facial fractures on Sept. 23 and made two appearances to close out his season (6 1/3 innings, one run allowed). Since establishing himself as a big leaguer in 2018, the late-blooming righty has a 3.23 ERA, a 23.1% strikeout rate, a 7.1% walk rate and a 42.3% grounder rate in 412 innings. This past season’s 25% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate were career-highs. Like Manaea, Bassitt is a free agent next winter but would make a fine rental for a contender.
  • Montas (29 next year): Montas consistently averages better than 96 mph on his heater. The 2021 season was his first topping 100 innings, thanks to a combination of injuries, the shortened 2020 campaign and an 80-game PED ban. Lack of innings notwithstanding, Montas has been effective on the whole since 2018, logging a combined 3.57 ERA with above-average strikeout and walk rates. The 2021 season looked to be a true breakout, as Montas ranked ninth in MLB with 187 innings and turned in a 3.37 ERA with a career-high 26.6% strikeout rate.

The asking price on those players, and others, will vary based on expected earnings and remaining club control. It’s not a given that the A’s trade all five, of course, and it’s possible that even as they do make some changes on the roster, some of those dollars are reallocated to low-cost free agents.

In past trades of notable players, the A’s have tended to focus on upper-level prospects and young big leaguers who’ve yet to establish themselves rather than the lower-level types often targeted by teams commencing full teardowns. That’s not a guaranteed blueprint for how they’ll operate this winter, but the focus on near-term assets is part of the reason the A’s have managed to remain so competitive amid frequent “step backs,” regular roster turnover and perennial payroll constraints.

The extent of this ostensible “step back” will be partly determined by the extent to which ownership is willing to spend in future seasons, but the A’s have never embarked on the sort of lengthy, years-long rebuilds we’ve recently seen in Baltimore, Detroit and other places. Oakland has never had more than three straight losing seasons under Billy Beane and has just eight total losing records in Beane’s 24 full seasons leading baseball operations.

Share 0 Retweet 25 Send via email0

Oakland Athletics Chris Bassitt Elvis Andrus Frankie Montas Matt Chapman Matt Olson Sean Manaea Stephen Piscotty

326 comments

A’s Loaded Arbitration Class Will Lead To Some Tough Decisions

By Steve Adams | September 3, 2021 at 6:17pm CDT

The Athletics are squarely in the mix for the second American League Wild Card and, with six remaining games against the first-place Astros still on the schedule, are still alive in the division chase in the American League West as well. Oakland currently trails Houston by four and a half games, so with 28 games left to play, there’s time for a surge to overtake the current leaders.

Oakland’s proximity to a division title and their (at the time) status as a team in possession of the second Wild Card spot surely emboldened the team to go for it at this year’s trade deadline. The acquisition of Andrew Chafin was a solid addition to an already-sound bullpen, but it was the team’s trade for Starling Marte that really grabbed headlines. That’s in part due to Marte’s status as one of the more prominent names on the summer trade market but also due to the fact that Oakland parted with longtime top prospect Jesus Luzardo — five years of control over him to be exact — in exchange for a rental player who’ll be a free agent at season’s end.

At the time of the trade, I touched on this a bit, but it’s a concept  that bears a bit more detail. The Athletics have every reason to act aggressively on the trade deadline this summer, because barring a major uptick in the team’s typically thrifty payroll, this could be something of a last hurrah for the current Oakland core.

The A’s don’t have much on the payroll next season — just Elvis Andrus $14MM salary (of which the Rangers are paying $7.25MM) and Stephen Piscotty’s $7.25MM salary. The A’s have a $4MM club option on Jake Diekman that comes with a $750K buyout as well. Most clubs would probably pick that up given his strong season, but it’s at least feasible that given the forthcoming payroll crunch that will be laid out here shortly, the A’s could pass on it.

Those minimal contractual guarantees look nice at first glance, but the Athletics have an enormous arbitration class on the horizon — and it’s not just large in terms of volume. It’s a talented and experienced group of players featuring the majority of Oakland’s most recognizable names: Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Ramon Laureano, Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino, Chad Pinder, Tony Kemp, Deolis Guerra, Burch Smith and (depending on his final service time numbers) perhaps Adam Kolarek. Of that bunch, Manaea and Bassitt are up for their final arbitration raises — the former as a Super Two player. Chapman, Olson, Montas and Trivino are getting their second raises.

I wanted to better ascertain just how expensive a class this is going to be for the Athletics, so I reached out to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for some help. Matt created MLBTR’s Arbitration Projection model, and I asked if he’d be able to put together some projections for the Athletics’ class based on the seasons they’ve had to date. Matt did just that, tacking on each player’s rest-of-season projections from the Steamer projection system to their actual production to date, coming up with the following projections:

  • Matt Olson: $11.8MM
  • Sean Manaea: $10.1MM
  • Matt Chapman: $9.8MM
  • Chris Bassitt: $8.9MM
  • Frankie Montas: $4.8MM
  • Lou Trivino: $3.0MM
  • Ramon Laureano: $2.8MM
  • Chad Pinder: $2.7MM
  • Tony Kemp: $1.8MM
  • Burch Smith: $1MM
  • Deolis Guerra: $900K
  • Adam Kolarek: $800K

(One caveat on the projections themselves: these raises are determined using the 2021 model and standard inflation for the 2022 season. Major League Baseball and the MLBPA agreed not to use 2021 arbitration raises as precedent-setters because of the anomalous nature of last year’s short-season data.)

In all, it’s a projected total of $58.4MM. Add that to the combined salaries of Andrus and Piscotty, and the A’s are up to $72.4MM — $76.4MM if they exercise the option on Diekman. That’s what they’d owe to just 15 players. There are some possible non-tenders in there (Smith and Kolarek, certainly), but for the most part, all of the major names should be expected to be tendered. We don’t know precisely what next year’s minimum salary will be due to the expiring collective bargaining agreement, but even filling out the roster with players earning this year’s minimum would take them up to nearly $80MM — about $6MM shy of their current payroll.

Of course, we know that you can’t simply supplement this group with pre-arbitration players, because the rest of the current roster isn’t made up of pre-arb players. The A’s currently stand to lose not only Marte but also Mark Canha, Yan Gomes, Yusmeiro Petit, Sergio Romo, Jed Lowrie, Mitch Moreland, Josh Harrison, Mike Fiers and Khris Davis to free agency. Replace that group with readily available, in-house options and you’re probably not looking at a playoff team — certainly not with the Mariners, Angels and Rangers both looking to improve their rosters this winter, making for even tougher competition within the division.

The A’s have never carried an Opening Day payroll greater than $92MM, per Cot’s Contracts — their prorated 2020 payroll may have gotten there — so an arbitration class worth more than $55MM is an immensely expensive group for ownership. Some of this crunch could be alleviated by trying to find a taker for Andrus and/or Piscotty, though moving either player might necessitate the A’s paying some of the freight (or taking a lesser contract in return). As previously mentioned, some non-tenders could get the bottom-line number down as well.

It’s always possible, too, that ownership simply bites the bullet and pays up for a franchise-record payroll. We haven’t seen that level of spending in the past, though, and this is the same A’s team that only agreed to pay its minor leaguers a $400 weekly stipend after considerable public relations backlash during last summer’s pandemic — a move that only cost them about a million dollars. The A’s also had the Marlins foot the bill for all of Marte’s remaining salary. Perhaps that was in preparation for a payroll hike this winter, but that’d be a rather charitable interpretation when history and precedent tell us this is a team that is already pushing the upper levels of its comfort from a payroll standpoint.

All of this is to say: the Athletics certainly have the look of a team that is going to have to make some tough decisions this winter. They can either take payroll to new heights, look to move Andrus and/or Piscotty (which would likely mean attaching a prospect and further depleting a thin farm), or listen to offers on some names who’ve become staples on the roster.

Parting with a starter such as Manaea or Bassitt would be difficult, but both are slated to become free agents following the 2022 season. Both Chapman and Olson have two arbitration raises left, which means both are going to be owed a raise on top of that already sizable arbitration projection following the ’22 campaign. Both are on a path toward $15MM-plus salaries in 2023 — especially if Chapman is able to maintain his recent surge at the plate and return to his pre-hip surgery levels of offensive output.

Whatever route the Athletics ultimately decide to take, the organization and its fans are in for a good bit of change this winter. That could mean changes to the payroll or changes to the composition of a core group of players who’ve been quite successful since coming together a few years back. Regardless of which path they choose, it’s understandable that the A’s opted to be aggressive at this year’s deadline; with Canha, Marte and several relievers set for free agency and a huge arbitration class that could force some financially-motivated trades, this looks like the current group’s best and perhaps final chance to make a deep playoff run together.

Share 0 Retweet 14 Send via email0

MLBTR Originals Oakland Athletics Adam Kolarek Burch Smith Chad Pinder Chris Bassitt Deolis Guerra Frankie Montas Lou Trivino Mark Canha Matt Chapman Matt Olson Ramon Laureano Sean Manaea Tony Kemp

108 comments

Athletics Return Rule 5 Pick Dany Jimenez To Blue Jays

By Connor Byrne | March 15, 2021 at 3:43pm CDT

The Athletics announced that they have returned Rule 5 Draft pick Dany Jimenez to the Blue Jays. The A’s also reinstated fellow right-hander Frankie Montas from the COVID-19 injured list.

Jimenez, who turned 27 in December, was a Rule 5 pick in back-to-back offseasons (the Giants took him in 2019), but he has seen little major league action thus far. He pitched 1 1/3 innings with the Giants across two appearances last year. The Double-A level is the highest Jimenez has climbed in the minors, and he logged an excellent 1.87 ERA while averaging more than 12 strikeouts per nine in 33 2/3 innings there in 2019.

Now that he’s back with the Jays, Jimenez will report to major league camp as a non-roster invitee, Scott Mitchell of TSN tweets.

Share 0 Retweet 5 Send via email0

Oakland Athletics Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Dany Jimenez Frankie Montas

24 comments

AL West Notes: Astros, Castro, A’s, Fiers, Rangers

By Anthony Franco | March 10, 2021 at 10:26pm CDT

Jason Castro has a strained oblique, Astros manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). The injury has kept the veteran backstop out of Grapefruit League action since last Tuesday, but Castro did return to practice today, per the Houston skipper. There’s no indication at this point that the issue threatens his availability for Opening Day. Castro reunited with his original organization on a one-year deal in January. Martín Maldonado and Garrett Stubbs are the other catchers on the Astros’ 40-man roster.

More from the American League West:

  • Athletics right-hander Mike Fiers felt some back discomfort in his most recent bullpen session, manager Bob Melvin said (via Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). It isn’t clear whether this will affect Fiers’ readiness for Opening Day. Oakland brought back the veteran starter on a one-year deal over the winter. Melvin also said the A’s expect Frankie Montas to be ready for the start of the regular season after a bout with COVID-19 set him back early in camp, Kawahara writes.
  • The Athletics have not been in attendance for any of Yoenis Céspedes’ recent showcases, per Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News. “We’re not in position, unfortunately (to sign him),” Melvin said, via Rubin. Céspedes spent the first two-plus seasons of his career in Oakland, finishing runner-up in 2012 AL Rookie of the Year voting. The 35-year-old slugger is looking to return to the big leagues in 2021 after opting out of last season after eight games due to COVID-19 concerns.
  • Non-roster invitee Matt Bush has a good chance to earn a spot in the Rangers’ season-opening bullpen, writes Kennedi Landry of MLB.com. That’s especially the case now that Jonathan Hernández will open the year on the injured list. After a strong two-year start to his MLB career from 2016-17, Bush had a rough 2018 season. He struggled for much of the year, then suffered a UCL tear that September. After rehab failed to correct the issue, Bush underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2019. The timing of that procedure kept him out through the end of 2020.
Share 0 Retweet 10 Send via email0

Houston Astros Notes Oakland Athletics Texas Rangers Frankie Montas Jason Castro Matt Bush Mike Fiers Yoenis Cespedes

36 comments

COVID Notes: Abreu, Montas, Happ, Cordero

By Anthony Franco | February 28, 2021 at 11:04am CDT

The latest notes from MLB regarding COVID-19:

  • Reigning AL MVP José Abreu returned to team workouts yesterday (per Scott Merkin of MLB.com). The White Sox first baseman had been sidelined after testing positive for the coronavirus, which Abreu believes he contracted back in January. Abreu says he’ll need a few extra days to get his timing back after quarantining, so he probably won’t see any game action until the middle of next week.
  • Athletics right-hander Frankie Montas discussed his COVID diagnosis with reporters (including Martín Gallegos of MLB.com and Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News). Montas said he previously experienced headaches and body aches and continues to feel some tightness in his chest. Fortunately, he has progressed to running and throwing after being set back by those symptoms.
  • Twins left-hander J.A. Happ is feeling well after testing positive for the coronavirus during intake last weekend, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters yesterday (via Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press). Happ still needs to clear testing protocols before returning to the field, and he’s expected to begin the screening process tomorrow, per Helfand.
  • New Red Sox outfielder Franchy Cordero tested positive for the virus and remains in the Dominican Republic, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Cordero was placed on the COVID-19 injured list last week, although it wasn’t known at the time whether that was due to a positive test or mere exposure. The hope is that Cordero will be able to join camp by the middle of next week, per Speier.
Share 0 Retweet 3 Send via email0

Boston Red Sox Chicago White Sox Minnesota Twins Notes Oakland Athletics Coronavirus Franchy Cordero Frankie Montas J.A. Happ Jose Abreu

Comments Closed
« Previous Page
Load More Posts
Show all

ad: 300x250_1_MLB

    Top Stories

    A’s Designate Adam Kolarek, Option Cristian Pache

    Blue Jays Sign Sergio Romo

    Bryce Harper To Undergo Thumb Surgery

    Royals Trade Carlos Santana To Mariners, Promote Vinnie Pasquantino

    Major League Baseball Issues 12 Suspensions For Angels – Mariners Brawl

    Cardinals Place Jack Flaherty, Harrison Bader On Injured List

    Phillies Claim Oscar Mercado

    Bryce Harper Fractures Left Thumb

    Phillies Select Mark Appel

    Daniel Hudson Suffers Season-Ending ACL Injury

    Salvador Perez Undergoes Thumb Surgery

    Cubs Designate Jonathan Villar For Assignment

    Yankees, Aaron Judge Avoid Arbitration

    Giants Acquire Willie Calhoun From Rangers For Steven Duggar

    Angels Option Reid Detmers

    Recent

    The Orioles’ Waiver Claim All-Star (And Trade Candidate)

    A’s Designate Adam Kolarek, Option Cristian Pache

    Padres Select Matthew Batten, Designate Sergio Alcantara For Assignment

    Cubs Select Narciso Crook, Place Jason Heyward On Injured List

    Dodgers Claim Ian Gibaut From Guardians

    Pirates Designate Yu Chang For Assignment

    Mariners Sign Chris Mazza To Minor League Deal

    Red Sox Designate Silvino Bracho For Assignment

    Rays Announce Several Roster Moves

    Senate Committee Examining MLB’s Antitrust Exemption

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Trevor Story Rumors
    • Frankie Montas Rumors
    • Michael Conforto Rumors
    • Arbitration Tracker
    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Go Ad-Free
    • MLB Player Chats
    • 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Tracker
    • 2021-22 MLB Free Agent List
    • Top 50 Free Agents
    • 2022-23 MLB Free Agent List
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2022
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    ad: 160x600_MLB

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • Feeds by Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    hide arrowsFOX Sports Engage Network scroll to top
    Close

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version