NL Central Notes: Greene, Epstein, Iglesias, Cole
The Reds will have until 5pm EST on Friday to reach agreement with second overall pick Hunter Greene. As MLB.com’s Jim Callis explains, he’s among a few top picks who have yet to agree to terms, but is still expected to do so. Indeed, as Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer further explains, it’d rate as quite a surprise if Greene doesn’t take a record-setting bonus offer to turn pro before the deadline.
Here’s more from the NL Central:
- Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein warned today that outside additions won’t solve the club’s woes, as Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com was among those to report. Epstein says the defending World Series champs “can’t force anything” at the trade deadline. Whatever changes to the roster are ultimately made, he says, the organization’s “biggest fixes are inside the clubhouse.” That hardly establishes (or even really suggests) that Chicago won’t look to improve at the deadline, of course. And it certainly doesn’t hint that Epstein lacks in confidence in the existing talent. Indeed, he also says he expects the club to return to the high level of play it has carried over the past two seasons. Caveats aside, Epstein did indicate that the Cubs aren’t exactly looking to structure any deadline blockbusters. “We’ll do what we can to look to augment that,” he said, “but there’s not going to be a fundamental shift in the player personnel that we have.”
- The Reds may or may not have much interest in dealing away 27-year-old reliever Raisel Iglesias, but other teams are surely eyeing the quality righty and his appealing contract. It’s unsurprising to hear, then, that the closer-needy Nationals have at least some degree of interest in Iglesias, as MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets. On paper, the fit is plenty clear. But it remains to be seen what kind of asking price the Reds will place on Iglesias — who is currently sitting on a 1.59 ERA while maintaining a jump in velocity this year — and whether the Nats will be willing to offload significant prospects to get him.
- Similarly, rival organizations are surely wonder whether the Pirates have any inclination to take offers on righty Gerrit Cole. There’s nothing definitive in that regard, but Jon Heyman of Fan Rag writes (among many other National League notes) that the Bucs are giving indication that Cole isn’t likely to be traded. Perhaps an overwhelming offer could shift the thinking, but it seems clear that Pittsburgh isn’t itching to cash in on Cole with two more years of arbitration control remaining — particularly with his value perhaps tipping down somewhat. While he has been healthy, Cole has had the roughest year of his career thus far, allowing 1.59 home runs per nine and carrying a 4.43 ERA over 107 2/3 frames.
Pirates Notes: Marte, Cutch, Cole, Rangers, Phillies
Eligible to return from his 80-game PED suspension July 18, Pirates outfielder Starling Marte began a High-A rehab assignment Sunday. When Marte does rejoin the Bucs, he’ll do so as a left fielder, manager Clint Hurdle told Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and other reporters. Marte has spent the majority of his career in left since debuting in 2012, but thanks to both his excellent work there and Andrew McCutchen‘s decline in center field, the Pirates moved the former to center and the latter to right in the offseason (Gregory Polanco shifted from right to left).
Now, with McCutchen enjoying a bounce-back season at the plate, Pittsburgh will keep its longtime face of the franchise in the outfield’s most important position. McCutchen is in the midst of his second straight poor year in center, though, as he posted minus-28 defensive runs saved and a minus-18.7 Ultimate Zone Rating in 2016 and already has a minus-15 DRS and a minus 18.5 UZR/150 this season. But general manager Neal Huntington has seen improvement, noting: “His metrics are better this year. Part of that … is we’ve pushed him back a little bit to play to his strengths and to his confidence, playing gap to gap.”
- It’s possible Marte will head back to center if the Pirates trade McCutchen before this month’s deadline, and Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette observes that the value of both McCutchen and right-hander Gerrit Cole is increasing. Rival evaluators have pointed to Texas as a fit for the two, with one evaluator suggesting that the Rangers would have to give up outfielder Leody Taveras or left-hander Yohander Mendez just for McCutchen, according to Brink. Both Taveras (No. 45) and Mendez (No. 46) rank among MLB Pipeline’s top 50 prospects.
- Sticking with the McCutchen theme, Ryan Lawrence of PhillyVoice.com opines that the in-state rival Phillies should pursue a deal for the 30-year-old. Given that the Phillies have the majors’ worst record (27-53), McCutchen wouldn’t help them vie for a playoff berth this year, but Lawrence argues that he’d still be a worthwhile addition. Philadelphia could acquire McCutchen with the goal of extending him past next season, when his team control expires. If they fail to reach a multiyear agreement by next summer and the Phillies aren’t in the playoff hunt, they’d potentially be able to flip McCutchen, contends Lawrence.
Trade Chatter: A’s, Giants, Yankees, McCutchen, Avila, Dodgers
Though Sonny Gray has garnered most of the headlines in Athletics trade rumors, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that Jed Lowrie, Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson are all drawing interest as well. The A’s are hoping to move Lowrie to clear a spot for prospect Franklin Barreto to play in the Majors on a full-time basis, she notes. Barreto is currently getting at-bats, but Oakland also has Marcus Semien on the mend and returning perhaps in a week or more. Doolittle and Madson are both in the midst of strong seasons, although the injury-prone Doolittle has been limited to 14 2/3 innings. Madson, meanwhile, looks even better than he did in his 2015 comeback; he’s averaging 9.8 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 with a 54.4 percent ground-ball rate, leading to a 2.35 ERA. Of course, he’s also earning $7.5MM this year and next, and his contract calls for incentives for finishing games, which could make the price even more steep. The Rangers, Cubs, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Braves and Astros have all been scouting Oakland recently, according to Slusser.
Some more trade chatter from around the game…
- The Giants aren’t looking to rebuild so much as they’re looking to reload, president Larry Baer tells Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area. Baer acknowledged that the 2017 campaign hasn’t been anything close to what the organization had hoped, but he also indicated that even if the front office moves some veterans this summer, the ultimate goal will be to return to contention in 2018. “Directionally it’s, ‘How can we get right back there in 2018,” said Baer. “It’s not how can we get right back there in 2022 or 2021.” Pavlovic notes that it’s possible the Giants could try to trade Johnny Cueto and still re-sign him this winter if he exercises his opt-out clause with a new team, and Baer wouldn’t rule out that possibility, simply stating that it was “possible” but declining to speculate too heavily.
- The Yankees are looking for bullpen help “right now,” writes FanRag’s Jon Heyman as part of his weekly American League Notes column. The duo of Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances is formidable in the late innings, but the recent struggles of Tyler Clippard and others have GM Brian Cashman on the lookout. Cashman told Heyman that the Yankees aren’t looking for a first baseman at the moment, though recent injury news regarding Tyler Austin and Greg Bird, of course, could change that line of thinking in a hurry.
- There’s been no serious talk between the Pirates and other clubs regarding Andrew McCutchen just yet, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Part of the reason for that is the parity that exists in Wild Card races, as many teams that could eventually add some veteran pieces remain uncertain that they’ll be in the hunt a month from now.
- Also via Morosi, Tigers catcher Alex Avila is “on the radar” of the Cubs and the Blue Jays. Avila has had a staggering turnaround in his return to Detroit, hitting a ridiculous .315/.431/.586 with 11 homers while earning just a $2MM salary on a one-year deal. While many fans are understandably skeptical of Avila’s turnaround, I’ll point out that Avila’s 57 percent hard-hit rate leads all players with at least 190 plate appearances, and he entered play Thursday tied with teammate J.D. Martinez for the third-highest average exit velocity in baseball (93.7 mph), trailing only Aaron Judge and Miguel Sano. Avila has always had a massive walk rate, as well, and that’s been the case once again in 2017 (16.4 percent). There’s some regression coming, of course, as even with his batted-ball profile he’s probably not going to sustain a .426 BABIP.
- One more from Morosi, who notes that the Dodgers‘ primary focus remains on starting pitching at this time. They’re considering controllable options rather than rental pieces, with Morosi linking Los Angeles to the the Tigers‘ Justin Verlander, the Athletics‘ Sonny Gray, the White Sox‘ Jose Quintana and the Pirates‘ Gerrit Cole.
- For those still looking for more trade-related content to peruse, Heyman penned a column highlighting nearly 100 possible trade candidates, ranging from valuable-but-unlikely-to-move names (e.g. Josh Donaldson, Gerrit Cole) to bad contracts that current teams would like to escape in a potential salary dump (e.g. Junichi Tazawa, Matt Cain). There are some quotes from scouts, general managers and other league execs mixed in throughout.
Trade Chatter: Jays, Braves, O’s, ChiSox, BoSox, Bucs, Dodgers, Tigers
While the Blue Jays got off to a terrible start in 2017, their strong play from late April through early June has them back in the mix for a Wild Card spot, writes MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand as part of a look at numerous trade-related topics. As such, the Jays don’t seem like obvious sellers at the moment — a sentiment that GM Ross Atkins himself suggested to Feinsand. “Obviously we’re not pleased with our record, but we’re pleased with the fact that our team was able to dig out of a significant hole,” the GM said. “…Now we’re very much in it. We can’t climb back into one of those holes, because there’s not as much time left.” The Jays fell to 35-37 with tonight’s loss, though they’re still just five back in the AL East and 2.5 games out of an AL Wild Card spot. Feinsand notes that the injury to Devon Travis makes second base the biggest need Toronto faces between now and the trade deadline and lists a few speculative targets for Toronto, including Ian Kinsler and Jed Lowrie.
A bit more from Feinsand and some other trade chatter to close out the night…
- The Braves have already received interest in Jaime Garcia, Brandon Phillips and Jason Motte, Feinsand reports, but the Braves are likely to hold for now as they seek to generate interest from additional clubs. Garcia was hit hard for the second straight start tonight, but he’s been solid for the majority of the season and could step into the back of a contender’s rotation as a reliable source of league-average innings. Phillips, meanwhile, has been quietly productive in his first season with Atlanta, and the Reds are on the hook for nearly all of his salary. And Motte, since inking a minors pact with the Braves, has turned in a 2.14 ERA through 21 innings, albeit with some very unappealing peripherals (5.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, .179 BABIP, 5.89 FIP, 5.09 SIERA).
- Despite a lack of starting pitching and a very rough stretch over the past month, the Orioles still view themselves as contenders, GM Dan Duquette tells FanRag’s Jon Heyman. “We have a number of players who are capable of playing better and contributing more to the 2017 team than they have to date,” says Duquette. “…They have all played to a much higher level than they have played at so far this season. We are still contenders and we look forward to these players contributing to the club.” Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Zach Britton, Mark Trumbo and Darren O’Day are among the rebound candidates listed by Duquette, whose Orioles are 13-28 in their past 41 games.
- While the White Sox are known to be open for business, Heyman reports that there isn’t presently much of a market for Todd Frazier or Melky Cabrera. He hears that the Sox would “have to practically give [Frazier] away” or at eat virtually all of his salary in a trade. Frazier’s swinging a hot bat in June (.269/.351/.537, five homers), so perhaps he’s beginning to turn it around and boost that stock. Cabrera, meanwhile, is hitting quite well in 2017 after a slow start to the year, as he’s slashed .331/.386/.480 over the past calendar month. I’d imagine, however, that his $15MM salary and defensive shortcomings limit his market despite the improved production. Also of ChiSox note: Heyman writes that there’s no evidence of recent talks with the Nationals regarding David Robertson.
- The Red Sox should be able to add about $9MM to their payroll this summer without crossing the luxury tax barrier, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. While around $2MM of that sum could be set aside for the salary that’ll need to be paid for internal promotions, Boston should have the remaining funds to address one, if not two needs, provided they don’t break the bank for a starting pitcher. Speier again lists Todd Frazier as a possibility, and Heyman linked the Red Sox to the Royals‘ Mike Moustakas in his aforementioned column. Feinsand notes that Boston is indeed “in the market” for third base help as well, with Pablo Sandoval back on the DL and not playing well even when on the field.
- MLB.com’s Jon Morosi runs down a host of trade-related topics in his latest column, echoing recent suggestions from FOX’s Ken Rosenthal that the Pirates are likelier to trade Andrew McCutchen than Gerrit Cole. However, execs around the game do expect Pittsburgh to at least listen to offers on Cole, Morosi writes, though it may be hard for the Bucs to sell low on Cole.
- The Dodgers are more focused on adding rotation help than landing a significant bat due largely to the emergence of Cody Bellinger, per Morosi. According to Morosi, though, the Tigers have eyes on Dodgers prospect Alex Verdugo and would like to come away from the 2017 trade deadline with a center field option for the 2018 season, if they emerge as sellers. (Detroit hasn’t yet made that determination, he adds.) Tigers outfielder J.D. Martinez, Morosi points out, could be among the targets the Dodgers look at if they do elect to pursue a right-handed-hitting outfielder, though that connection is made speculatively, and I’d expect the Dodgers to be rather reluctant to part with a near-MLB-ready asset such as Verdugo in order to land a rental like Martinez.
Rosenthal’s Latest: McCutchen, Cole, Hand, Cubs
In his latest notes column, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes that while there’s a pretty good chance of an Andrew McCutchen trade this summer, the Pirates aren’t by any means planning a full tear-down of the roster. As such, Rosenthal notes that right-hander Gerrit Cole isn’t likely to be traded, considering he’s controllable for two more years beyond the current campaign. Trading McCutchen, whose bat has come to life over the past few weeks, wouldn’t be done as a means of waving a white flag on the 2017 campaign. Rather, the team could look to replace him in the lineup with a more affordable and/or controllable trade acquisition, as the Bucs did last year when replacing Melancon and Francisco Liriano with Felipe Rivero and Ivan Nova. McCutchen has a club option for the 2018 season that is valued at $14.5MM, and he’ll be a free agent thereafter.
A couple more highlights…
- The Padres are seeking a “Will Smith” type of return for lefty setup man Brad Hand, one rival executive tell Rosenthal. The Brewers traded Smith to the Giants last season in exchange for right-hander Phil Bickford, who at the time was 14 months removed from being a first-round pick, and catcher Andrew Susac — a former top prospect with MLB experience already under his belt. The Padres, of course, needn’t look to mirror that exact structure, but it seems fair to believe that GM A.J. Preller and his staff are hopeful of acquiring one near-MLB-ready asset and another highly touted young prospect in any deal for Hand, who is controllable through 2019. A pair of recent rough outings have made Hand’s numbers look a bit more mortal, but he’s still sporting a strong 2.84 ERA with 11.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 50 percent ground-ball rate through 38 innings.
- Rosenthal also writes that fans shouldn’t expect to see the Cubs trade any of their young MLB-level hitters this summer. He suggests that Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras, Albert Almora and even the less-experienced Ian Happ are all unlikely to be moved, though Chicago certainly has a number of upper-level prospects that would entice rival teams to part with talent that could help turn around the season for the reigning World Series champions. Rosenthal also spoke with right-hander Jake Arrieta at length in an interesting interview about his struggles this season. While the former Cy Young winner conceded that his workload in 2015-16 may be having more of an effect on him than he’d like to admit. As Rosenthal notes, virtually every member of the Cubs’ rotation that pitched into the World Series has had some level of struggle this season, and the same is largely true of the Indians.
Trade Candidate: Gerrit Cole
Major league teams are always on the lookout for established, affordable pitching. That fact could make right-hander Gerrit Cole, he of the $3.75MM salary, among the most appealing players available if the Pirates shop him prior to the trade deadline.
While Cole has drawn interest, there’s no indication Pittsburgh will place him on the block in the next couple months. However, the Pirates are just 25-31 – four games behind the NL Central-leading Brewers and eight games out of a wild-card spot – so it looks likely they’ll end up selling. As such, it could behoove the Bucs to at least listen to offers for Cole, especially if they’re unconvinced they’ll be able to return to their playoff-caliber ways of 2013-15 in the near future. The Pirates’ window with Cole is running out (he’s controllable via arbitration through 2019), and as a low-payroll outfit, odds are the team won’t be able to keep the Scott Boras client from hitting free agency if it elects against trading him in the coming years.
The problem for the Pirates, both from a contending standpoint and for Cole’s trade value, is that the 26-year-old has taken steps backward since his earlier days in the league. During his best season, 2015, Cole was a bona fide ace who notched 208 innings of 2.60 ERA ball (with a 2.66 FIP) and helped his cause with strong strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. Cole’s ERA went up nearly a run and a half last year (3.88, with a still-impressive 3.33 FIP) as his strikeout rate sunk, but injuries may have played a part in that. Pittsburgh shut down Cole in early September after just 116 innings and multiple stints on the disabled list – one for a strained triceps and another for elbow inflammation.
Fortunately, Cole has stayed healthy this year and already amassed 71 2/3 frames, but the results haven’t been great. While Cole has continued to limit walks (2.01 per nine) and generate grounders (46 percent), he ranks middle of the pack or worse among FanGraphs’ 89 qualifying starters in ERA (4.27, 55th), FIP (4.77, 67th), K/9 (7.66, 50th) and strikeout percentage (20.3, 47th). The main culprit for Cole’s run prevention issues is a bloated home run-to-fly ball ratio (19.7 percent), up from a career 9.3 percent. With 15 homers allowed, Cole has already established a career worst and yielded eight more long balls than he did during his truncated 2016.
Cole’s history indicates he’ll positively regress in the home run department, but it’s not a sure thing if his fastball doesn’t regain its effectiveness. Although Cole sits second among starters in average sinker velocity (96.15) and third in four-seam velo (96.73), according to Baseball Prospectus, he hasn’t exactly dominated with those pitches. Back in 2015, Cole had the second-most valuable fastball among starters, per FanGraphs, but it has been the ninth-worst pitch of its kind so far this year. Hitters have posted a .947 OPS against Cole’s four-seamer and a .945 mark versus his sinker, the two pitches he has leaned on the most, while his third, fourth and fifth offerings (his slider, changeup and knuckle-curve) have yielded an OPS of .644, .645 and .697, respectively.
Left-handed hitters have been especially tough on Cole, having slashed .276/.308/.572 with 10 homers and held their own against nearly all of his pitches, primarily his four-seamer. That certainly wasn’t the case when Cole’s four-seamer stymied lefties in 2015, and heat maps courtesy of FanGraphs (click to view: 2015, 2017) indicate he’s not locating the pitch as precisely as he did then. Meanwhile, with the exception of his sinker, Cole’s repertoire has limited same-handed batters, who have hit .244/.304/.314 against him. Four of righties’ five HRs off Cole have come against his sinker, which was tough to square up during his career year. As Brooks Baseball’s heat maps show (click to view: 2015, 2017), Cole’s not coming inside against righties with his sinker to nearly the extent that he did in the past, and the pitch has too often found the middle of the plate.
In fairness to Cole, his struggles this year largely boil down to his most recent three starts, a 14 2/3-inning stretch in which he gave up a combined 16 earned runs on 28 hits and eight homers. As recently as May 21, Cole was running a sub-3.00 ERA, and eight of his first nine outings were quality starts. If that version of Cole resurfaces and the Pirates do shop him by the end of July, they’d be within reason to request a prospect bounty in return. On the other hand, should the Cole who has shown up over the past two weeks stick around, Pittsburgh might be better served to keep the fifth-year man through season’s end and market him over the winter or during the 2018 campaign. After all, if Cole’s woes against opposite-handed batters continue, starter-needy contenders like the Astros, Yankees and Rockies – all of whom play in hitter-friendly parks – may not be keen on parting with multiple high-end prospects for someone generating so-so results.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Cafardo’s Latest: Cole, Astros, Gordon, Peralta, Frazier
The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo shares some hot stove rumblings and more in his latest notes column….
- The Astros are “very interested” in Pirates righty Gerrit Cole. Houston has been checking in on top-tier starters for months, so it makes sense that the team would have an eye on Cole’s availability. Peter Gammons recently suggested that the Astros (and Yankees) may be the only contenders who could actually afford a Cole trade, given Houston’s deep farm system and the giant return that the Pirates will surely demand for their controllable young star if Cole is indeed shopped at the deadline.
- “The Marlins would surely part with” Dee Gordon if they could find a trade partner at the deadline. Miami was reportedly ready to deal Gordon for pitching help over the offseason, though no trade or even any significant rumors even materialized. Gordon has hit just .263/.308/.326 over 522 PA since the start of the 2016 season, a year that saw the second baseman miss 80 games after testing positive for PEDs. He is also owed $38MM from 2018-20 as per the terms of his five-year, $50MM extension signed in the 2015-16 offseason, further hampering the Marlins’ chances of finding a trade fit.
- With Jhonny Peralta relegated to backup duty in St. Louis, Cafardo wonders if the Red Sox would considering acquiring Peralta to help their shaky third base situation. Given Peralta’s recent injury problems and his .251/.299/.387 slash line (in 341 PA) since the start of the 2016 season, of course, there’s no guarantee that Peralta is necessarily an upgrade. Peralta is also owed around $7.4MM for the remainder of the season, though Cafardo feels the Cardinals would cover “a great portion” of that salary. Cafardo notes that Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski knows Peralta well, having traded for Peralta in 2010 back when Dombrowski was the Tigers GM.
- The Red Sox have been scouting a veteran third baseman in Todd Frazier, and like in a hypothetical Peralta scenario, the White Sox would cover some salary in a trade (Frazier is owed a little under $9MM for the rest of 2017). Also like Peralta, Frazier isn’t in good form, hitting just .191/.280/.357 in 132 PA this season. Frazier has hit 75 homers over the last two years, however, and is a well-regarded clubhouse leader.
NL Central Notes: Peralta, Heyward, Happ, Reds, Cole
Jhonny Peralta is back with the Cardinals after being activated from the disabled list, though Peralta told reporters (including Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that he’ll have to adjust to being a part-time player for the first time in his career. “Everybody is doing good and the team — we’re in second place,” Peralta said. “I understand the situation but it’s kind of hard for me to be on the bench and not play every day, because I know what kind of player I can be….I need to learn to be ready for whatever time or situation it is in the game.” Peralta was a productive starter for the Cards as recently as the 2015 season, though an injury-plagued 2016 opened the door for Aledmys Diaz and Jedd Gyorko to emerge, and those two have now established themselves as the Cardinals’ regulars at shortstop and third base. Peralta, who turns 35 later this month, is in the final year of a four-year, $53MM contract and is owed roughly $7.4MM for the remainder of the season. A trade could be difficult to work given this remaining salary and Peralta’s lack of recent production, though if Peralta is able to get somewhat back into form, he’ll give the Cards some solid veteran infield depth.
Here’s more from around the NL Central…
- Jason Heyward expects to be activated from the 10-day DL today, which creates an interesting roster decision for the Cubs, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat writes. Top prospect Ian Happ has looked spectacular since being promoted last week and could stick with the club, through manager Joe Maddon said that the team wants Happ to get regular action wherever he plays, which could be somewhat difficult on Chicago’s crowded big league roster. “That’s what happens when you’re good is you have tough decisions,” Maddon said. “The fact that Ian has come up and done so well makes it even more difficult. We’ll try to figure it out and make our best guess.” Happ brings a lot of versatility as a switch-hitter and a multi-positional player, so the Cubs could get him playing time in a variety of roles and instead demote another bench option such as Tommy La Stella or Albert Almora. Heyward has missed two weeks due to a sprained right index finger, and was already back in the Cubs’ clubhouse after completing a one-game rehab stint in the minors.
- The incentive bonuses for Scott Feldman and Drew Storen are broken down by Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer, as Storen has already reached his first incentive threshold (15 appearances) and Feldman will access his bonus money on Monday when he makes his 10th start of the season. Feldman will earn $100K for that outing, and then another $100K or $200K for each successive start thereafter, up to 25 starts. The righty also has extra cash available in relief incentives, though Feldman isn’t likely to be moved out of the Reds rotation anytime soon, due to both his own solid performance (a 4.29 ERA in 50 1/3 IP) and Cincy’s lack of healthy alternatives. Storen has pitched very well out of the Reds bullpen and is in great shape to earn his $750K in available incentives for appearances, though attaining his games-finished bonuses could be difficult with Raisel Iglesias locked in at closer.
- With the Pirates in last place and facing an uphill battle in the NL Central race, Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com argues that the Bucs should deal Gerrit Cole while the right-hander’s trade value is at its highest. Cole is looking healthy after an injury-shortened 2016 and is pitching well, with a 2.84 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 50.3% grounder rate and 4.17 K/BB rate through 57 innings. Between this front-of-the-rotation production and Cole being under team control through 2019, the Pirates would stand to obtain a major haul if Cole was dealt. Gammons speculates that the Astros and Yankees would be the top two suitors, as they have enough minor league depth to afford the big price tag Pittsburgh would demand for Cole’s services.
Heyman’s Latest: Nats, Cutch, Marlins, Cole, Cobb
Jon Heyman of Fan Rag takes a look around the league in his latest notes columns. In addition to providing updates on every National League and American League team, he takes a particularly close look at the Nationals in separate posts. Let’s take a look at some of the items of particular relevance to the transactional landscape:
- The Nationals are beginning to put in phone calls to rivals as they start the search for a new closer in earnest, Heyman writes. Among the players under consideration by the team, at present, are a variety of names with differing contract situations. David Robertson of the White Sox, Kelvin Herrera of the Royals, and A.J. Ramos of the Marlins all have two years remaining at less-than-bargain rates (the latter two via arbitration). Alex Colome of the Rays and Roberto Osuna of the Blue Jays, meanwhile, bring more years of cheap control — and, in all likelihood, astronomical asking prices. Then there’s old friend Mark Melancon, who is in the first year of the four-year pact he signed with the Giants — who evidently beat the Nats’ offer over the winter. Needless to say, there’s quite a lot that could change that picture over the coming months.
- Looking back a bit, the Nationals came closer than any other team to landing Andrew McCutchen from the Pirates over the winter, Heyman adds.Per the report, the sides held talks that “revolved around three players, including Lucas Giolito and veteran Gio Gonzalez.” It’s not immediately clear what else might have been involved, and where things went south, but it’s interesting to hear those parameters. The Nats ultimately pivoted to Adam Eaton, of course, but he’s now out for the year. Perhaps it’s conceivable that the team could take another look at McCutchen, though no doubt the teams would need to start discussions anew with Giolito in Chicago, Gonzalez a key member of the Nats staff and McCutchen struggling.
- The Marlins sale talks had seemingly been building, but Heyman writes that there’s no deal ready to be made at present. For one thing, there are whispers that the purchase price will continue to drop as the organization’s financial health comes under greater scrutiny. For another, there are still questions about where the money will come from on the buyer’s side. “[A]t least the Bush-Jeter group and maybe the Romney-Glavine group, too, [are] still seeking investors,” per Heyman.
- Two significant recent investments made by the Marlins aren’t delivering value at present. Per Heyman, lefty Wei-Yin Chen is headed for a second opinion with his elbow issue still failing to progress. It seems the team could be bracing for a relatively lengthy absence. And Heyman notes that some in the baseball operations department weren’t thrilled at the idea of extending Martin Prado last year at $40MM over three years. He has been playing well enough, but is back on the DL with a recurring hamstring injury.
- Pirates righty Gerrit Cole has looked strong in the early going, but Heyman says the team may not be interested in dealing him even if they continue to lag in the standings. “We’re not in any rush,” a club source tells him. “I don’t think we’re there yet.” The 26-year-old owns a 2.84 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9; while the peripherals are largely in line with his 2016 work, the improved results are supported by jumps in swinging-strike rate (9.9%) and average fastball velocity (a career-high 96.1 mph). With two more years of arb eligibility to go, Cole would likely command a big price at the deadline.
- While the Rays entered play today just one game under .500, that doesn’t mean they aren’t readying for the possibility of selling. Of course, given the team’s pitching depth, it’s imaginable that the team could send out a veteran while still maintaining hopes of cracking the postseason. Per Heyman, Tampa Bay has “already begun calling to get a gauge on the value of Alex Cobb.” Rivals also think the club will be amenable to discussing both Jake Odorizzi and Chris Archer, he adds. Cobb, though, is the most obvious possible trade chip. The 29-year-old was homer-prone in his return from Tommy John surgery last year, but has looked solid through 56 1/3 innings this year — his last before reaching free agency. He carries a 3.67 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 to go with a 47.5% groundball rate. Cobb still isn’t getting swings and misses like he used to, but his velocity is better than ever and he has tamped down on the long balls thus far.
Heyman’s Latest: Miller, Marlins, Cole, Tigers, Agency Changes
Last August, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Diamondbacks and Marlins were in talks regarding a possible Shelby Miller trade that was ultimately vetoed by D-backs owner Ken Kendrick. Roughly nine months later, FanRag’s Jon Heyman adds some more context to the story, noting that the two sides were in talks regarding right-handers Luis Castillo, Jose Urena and Austin Brice were all being discussed as potential pieces for Arizona to acquire, as was left-hander Dillon Peters (not necessarily all four, though Castillo and Urena were likely the centerpieces). One D-backs source tells Heyman the trade was never close, though Heyman cites others who agreed with Nightengale’s report, stating that Kendrick did indeed veto the deal when it was close to fruition. Miller, of course, remained with the D-backs and looked better in 2017 than he did in 2016 before suffering a torn UCL and undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Heyman’s weekly American League and National League Notes columns reveal a few more interesting hot stove items…
- Despite the fact that multiple reports suggest the bidding price for the Marlins is around $1.3 billion, some have suggested to Heyman that the team’s lack of revenue and significant financial commitments to Giancarlo Stanton, Wei-Yin Chen, Martin Prado and others will ultimately lower the sale price after a full financial examination. Heyman adds that despite prior reports, he’s been told that Alex Rodriguez was never actually offered a spot in the Tagg Romney/Tom Glavine group that is vying to purchase the Marlins. Whether A-Rod was made an offer or not, the key takeaway is that it appears he won’t be involved in the sale.
- Rival executives believe that Pirates ace Gerrit Cole could land on the trade market this summer, per Heyman. The former No. 1 overall pick would make for an extremely interesting addition to the summer trade market, though Bucs certainly needn’t feel compelled to trade him. Cole is controlled through the 2019 season and is earning a perfectly reasonable $3.8MM this season (though that number will spike in his second trip through arbitration this winter). Nonetheless, with two and a half years of club control left, Cole would fetch a significant haul of young talent if he were actually made available. It seems quite likely that the Bucs will listen on Andrew McCutchen and Tony Watson this summer (Watson, like Mark Melancon last year, is a pending free agent), but Cole would have the most significant value of the bunch.
- Even if a closer upgrade were available to the Tigers at the moment, they don’t have the money to make an addition (or at least wouldn’t be willing to spend it). Detroit recently demoted Francisco Rodriguez from the ninth inning in favor of Justin Wilson following a brutal start to the season for K-Rod, and their bullpen has once again been a weak spot. Heyman notes that GM Al Avila at one point made a trip to Triple-A Toledo and “read the riot act” to right-hander Bruce Rondon, who has responded by dropping 15 pounds. Rondon was once viewed as a potential closer of the future, but he’s yet to establish himself and has had issues with his conditioning and effort level.
- Heyman also reports a pair of agency changes, noting that Red Sox top prospect Rafael Devers is now a client of Rep 1 Baseball, while Dodgers top prospect Yadier Alvarez is now repped by Wasserman. Neither has made his MLB debut yet, though both are considered among the game’s top 25 to 50 prospects and could theoretically surface in the Majors within the next calendar year or so (Devers, who is already in Double-A, appears closer than Alvarez, who has just 18 innings in High-A). Both changes are now reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains representation info on roughly more than 2,500 Major League and Minor League players. If you see any inaccuracies or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.