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Gerrit Cole

Heyman’s Latest: Cole, Cutch, Fulmer, Iglesias, Abreu, Bruce, Alonso, Darvish

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The Pirates are on a roll in the NL Central, having just swept the division-leading Brewers in a four-game series. Even prior to today’s win, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports wrote in his weekly notes column that Pittsburgh not only continues to look unlikely to trade Gerrit Cole but is now also unlikely to deal outfielder Andrew McCutchen, who has undergone a remarkable turnaround at the plate since late May.

More highlights from Heyman’s latest, including his American League and National League breakdowns:

  • The Tigers appear all but entirely unwilling to move young starter Michael Fulmer, per Heyman. That’s largely unsurprising, though perhaps it might have been expected that the club would at least entertain some scenarios in the interest of covering all its bases. While he’d surely draw a major haul, it would probably be tough for the team to part with its best asset while so many expensive veterans remain under contract. Meanwhile, Heyman notes that shortstop Jose Iglesias could be had for the right price, though it’s hard to see that coming together with such limited demand at the position.
  • Though the White Sox are clearly in the midst of another aggressive sale, Heyman writes that there are no plans to move Jose Abreu at this time. The slugger is in the midst of a fine season, but there’s a limited market for first base help at this time. With another two years of control beyond this season, the ChiSox will perhaps have more opportunistic times to market him. Derek Holland, on the other hand, could very well be moved in the coming week, and the South Siders would like to move Melky Cabrera as well but would probably need to pay down most of the remainder of this year’s $15MM salary.
  • The Indians are a possible landing spot for Jay Bruce, as their offense is currently without the injured Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis. The Mets are known to be looking to move Bruce, and it’s worth noting that USA Today’s Bob Nightengale recently reported that Cleveland was in the mix for slugger J.D. Martinez right up until the time he was traded.
  • With limited trade partners for Yonder Alonso — especially following the Yankees’ acquisition of Todd Frazier — the Athletics once again touched base with Yonder Alonso’s reps at MVP Sports about an extension, per Heyman. They’ll circle back again and do so later this week as the two sides attempt to find a middle ground. Oakland is in the midst of an all-out rebuild, as executive vice president of baseball ops Billy Beane recently indicated, but Alonso could provide some leadership for the team’s younger players. And, if he sustains his breakout through season’s end and into 2018, he could certainly become a marketable asset in the future when there’s more of a need at his position.
  • The Rangers aren’t likely to re-sign Yu Darvish after the season, Heyman writes, as Darvish’s camp has already thrown out Stephen Strasburg’s seven-year, $175MM contract as a potential comp. Texas isn’t prepared to bid that highly to retain Darvish, which is why they’ve at least signaled to teams that they’ll listen to offers on Darvish if they struggle too much between now and the deadline. There’s no plan to move Cole Hamels at this time, though, he adds.
  • While the Diamondbacks may have made their biggest move already, the club is still looking at ways to bolster the pitching staff. Heyman pegs Blue Jays righty Marco Estrada as a possibility, though it’s unclear if he’s actively under consideration. It’s fair to wonder, too, whether the club would be better suited to focusing on bullpen help — though, of course, looking at starters doesn’t preclude that possibility.
  • While the Cubs have made at least some contact with the Athletics on righty Sonny Gray even since acquiring Jose Quintana, Heyman says that it’s not at all clear that Chicago will be “a strong player” for another controllable starter.
  • With Jaime Garcia seemingly going off the board, there ought to be greater focus now on Phillies righty Jeremy Hellickson. He ought to be easier to obtain now than he was last year, Heyman notes, as the Phils are willing to hold onto at least some of his $17.2MM salary to improve the prospect return.

Trade Rumblings: Darvish, Marlins, Starters, Tigers, Astros, Iglesias, Hand

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There’s “increasing buzz” that the Rangers will listen to offers on top starters Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels if they don’t open the second half of the season with strong play, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. It’s been previously reported that the Rangers will hold onto Darvish even if they fall out of the race, so that’d represent something of a change of mindset for GM Jon Daniels & Co. Darvish is set to hit the open market at season’s end, so if the Rangers are out of the race and don’t trade him, they run the risk of losing him to free agency (though he’d obviously receive and reject a qualifying offer, affording Texas some draft compensation). Hamels, meanwhile, hasn’t been listed as a potential trade target to date. He’s earning $23.5MM this year and next, and he’s owed at least $6MM as the buyout on a $20MM club option for the 2019 campaign. That contract and a bizarrely low strikeout rate (4.9 K/9) could complicate Hamels’ market, though he’s shown recent improvement with 12 strikeouts in his past 14 1/3 innings of work.

More trade chatter from around the league…

  • The Marlins have told other clubs that they’re ready to sell off assets, a rival executive tells Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller. According to Miller, the Marlins have spoken to more than 10 teams about right-hander David Phelps, and there are two or three clubs that are showing “serious” interest in closer AJ Ramos. “They’re working on it and talking to clubs,” the exec tells Miller. “But the conversations always end with one caveat, that they don’t know that the owner won’t bail at the last minute.” Miller adds that Giancarlo Stanton isn’t likely to move until the Marlins accept that they won’t get someone to take his salary and give prospects back. The industry feeling is that it’d have to be almost a straight salary dump. (Stanton can also veto any deal via his no-trade clause.) Miller’s column features a look at all 30 teams and their possible deadline course as well.
  • Sonny Gray, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are available in trades, writes Jon Morosi of MLB.com, but the Athletics, Tigers and Pirates have each set a lofty asking price. Perhaps more interestingly, Morosi adds that the Braves have said right-hander Julio Teheran isn’t available, though he’s reportedly been drawing interest and others (including David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports) have said that Atlanta would at least consider offers. In addition to that overview of the market for pitchers, Morosi runs down a position-by-position preview of the market for bats.
  • Heyman reports that there’s little to no genuine interest in Justin Verlander at this time due to his huge contract and underwhelming numbers. Furthermore, he notes that due to Verlander’s status as a legend in Detroit, they can’t accept an underwhelming return and effectively signal to Tigers fans that his trade was a salary dump. There’s also very little interest in Ian Kinsler, according to Heyman, as the he’s struggled in 2017 and few teams are on the hunt for second base help. He adds that Alex Avila, J.D. Martinez and Justin Wilson are all drawing strong interest, however, so GM Al Avila should make some deals in the next 18 days.
  • In his weekly AL Notes column, Heyman reports that with few top starters left on the market, the Astros may instead pursue high-end bullpen help in an effort to shorten the game and load up the relief corps for the postseason. Unsurprisingly, their list of targets would include Zach Britton, if he’s available. (Most clubs in the league would perk up at the notion of acquiring a healthy Britton.)
  • Heyman also notes that Braves left-hander Jaime Garcia is one rental pitcher that interests the Royals. On the subject of Kansas City, he also notes that while the team does have interest in Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon, K.C. would want Miami to pay down some of the roughly $41MM remaining on Gordon’s contract, which the Fish aren’t willing to do. The same is true of the Angels and Blue Jays, he adds, both of whom like the player but not his current salary.
  • Meanwhile, in his NL Notes column, Heyman writes that the Reds are believed to be willing to listen to offers on closer Raisel Iglesias but would only move him for a package that would “blow them away.” The 27-year-old Iglesias has emerged as one of baseball’s best relievers and is controllable through the 2020 season. He’s affordable at the moment ($3.5MM in 2017), but his contract allows him to opt into arbitration once eligible, so his salary is going to balloon quite a bit between now and 2020. Heyman also notes that the Reds would be interested in a two- or possibly three-year deal with Zack Cozart but recognize that he can earn more than they’re willing to pay when he gets to free agency.
  • The Yankees, Nationals, Dodgers, Cubs, Brewers, Royals, Angels and Mariners could all be in the mix for lefty Brad Hand, Heyman reports. Regarding the Dodgers, Heyman and Robert Murray report that San Diego asked Los Angeles for top prospect Alex Verdugo in return, though there’s “no likelihood” of L.A. meeting that price. The Padres are also getting calls on cheap starters Trevor Cahill, Clayton Richard and Jhoulys Chacin, each of whom inked a one-year deal worth $1.75MM this past offseason.

Gammons On Cubs, Tigers, Verlander, Lowrie, Cole

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“This is the reality: there are a lot more sellers than buyers right now,” a club personnel director tells Peter Gammons in the writer’s latest piece for his Gammons Daily website.  Not only are some teams still wondering if they can get back into the postseason race, other teams further back in the standings are looking to rebound in 2018 and thus won’t engage in full-scale selloffs at the deadline.  It makes for a lot of speculation but little hard facts at this point in July.  As one GM jokes, “the whole countdown to deadline day has become akin to stores putting Christmas decorations in their showcase windows on Labor Day.”  Here are some hot stove items from Gammons…

  • “The Cubs have called almost every team” in search of starting pitching, including asking the Tigers about Michael Fulmer and Daniel Norris.  It would take a blockbuster offer for Detroit to eve consider moving Fulmer, as he has already displayed frontline-starter capabilities over his year and a half as a major leaguer, and he has yet to even reach his arbitration seasons.  Norris would come at a lesser but still substantial price since he is controlled through 2022, though the southpaw has battled both injuries and inconsistency during his four years in the bigs.  The Cubs are known to be looking for controllable young arms, and may be willing to deal from their surplus of young position players to do so.
  • One Tigers pitcher that isn’t on the Cubs’ radar is Justin Verlander, as one Cubs official tells Gammons that “no one is going to pay $70MM for him, even though he may still be a very good pitcher.”  Chicago reportedly at least asked about Verlander at one point, though with Detroit apparently wanting to both get top prospects and get Verlander’s salary off the books, it isn’t surprising that the Cubs’ interest in Verlander was described yesterday as “more smoke than fire” by the Detroit Free Press’ Anthony Fenech.
  • Billy Beane told Gammons earlier this week that he hadn’t received any serious interest in Sonny Gray prior to last weekend, and the same goes for any serious calls about Jed Lowrie.  The veteran infielder is thought to be a good target for teams in need of middle infield help and the Athletics to find lineup space for prospect Franklin Barreto, though it appears that Lowrie’s market has yet to develop with over three weeks still to go until the deadline.  MLBTR’s Connor Byrne examined Lowrie, Gray and other Oakland trade candidates in a Taking Inventory piece earlier today.
  • Returning to Gammons’ original point about teams not wanting rebuild when they feel they have a chance in 2018, Pirates GM Neal Huntington said that his team isn’t likely to trade young right-hander Gerrit Cole.  “We haven’t had a real conversation about Gerrit, and I don’t see us doing so,” Huntington said.  “We think we can be serious contenders next year….Our goal is to maintain a level of competitiveness every year, and not to have to jump back and build all over again.”

NL Central Notes: Greene, Epstein, Iglesias, Cole

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The Reds will have until 5pm EST on Friday to reach agreement with second overall pick Hunter Greene. As MLB.com’s Jim Callis explains, he’s among a few top picks who have yet to agree to terms, but is still expected to do so. Indeed, as Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer further explains, it’d rate as quite a surprise if Greene doesn’t take a record-setting bonus offer to turn pro before the deadline.

Here’s more from the NL Central:

  • Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein warned today that outside additions won’t solve the club’s woes, as Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com was among those to report. Epstein says the defending World Series champs “can’t force anything” at the trade deadline. Whatever changes to the roster are ultimately made, he says, the organization’s “biggest fixes are inside the clubhouse.” That hardly establishes (or even really suggests) that Chicago won’t look to improve at the deadline, of course. And it certainly doesn’t hint that Epstein lacks in confidence in the existing talent. Indeed, he also says he expects the club to return to the high level of play it has carried over the past two seasons. Caveats aside, Epstein did indicate that the Cubs aren’t exactly looking to structure any deadline blockbusters. “We’ll do what we can to look to augment that,” he said, “but there’s not going to be a fundamental shift in the player personnel that we have.”
  • The Reds may or may not have much interest in dealing away 27-year-old reliever Raisel Iglesias, but other teams are surely eyeing the quality righty and his appealing contract. It’s unsurprising to hear, then, that the closer-needy Nationals have at least some degree of interest in Iglesias, as MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets. On paper, the fit is plenty clear. But it remains to be seen what kind of asking price the Reds will place on Iglesias — who is currently sitting on a 1.59 ERA while maintaining a jump in velocity this year — and whether the Nats will be willing to offload significant prospects to get him.
  • Similarly, rival organizations are surely wonder whether the Pirates have any inclination to take offers on righty Gerrit Cole. There’s nothing definitive in that regard, but Jon Heyman of Fan Rag writes (among many other National League notes) that the Bucs are giving indication that Cole isn’t likely to be traded. Perhaps an overwhelming offer could shift the thinking, but it seems clear that Pittsburgh isn’t itching to cash in on Cole with two more years of arbitration control remaining — particularly with his value perhaps tipping down somewhat. While he has been healthy, Cole has had the roughest year of his career thus far, allowing 1.59 home runs per nine and carrying a 4.43 ERA over 107 2/3 frames.

Pirates Notes: Marte, Cutch, Cole, Rangers, Phillies

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Eligible to return from his 80-game PED suspension July 18, Pirates outfielder Starling Marte began a High-A rehab assignment Sunday. When Marte does rejoin the Bucs, he’ll do so as a left fielder, manager Clint Hurdle told Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and other reporters. Marte has spent the majority of his career in left since debuting in 2012, but thanks to both his excellent work there and Andrew McCutchen’s decline in center field, the Pirates moved the former to center and the latter to right in the offseason (Gregory Polanco shifted from right to left).

Now, with McCutchen enjoying a bounce-back season at the plate, Pittsburgh will keep its longtime face of the franchise in the outfield’s most important position. McCutchen is in the midst of his second straight poor year in center, though, as he posted minus-28 defensive runs saved and a minus-18.7 Ultimate Zone Rating in 2016 and already has a minus-15 DRS and a minus 18.5 UZR/150 this season. But general manager Neal Huntington has seen improvement, noting: “His metrics are better this year. Part of that … is we’ve pushed him back a little bit to play to his strengths and to his confidence, playing gap to gap.”

  • It’s possible Marte will head back to center if the Pirates trade McCutchen before this month’s deadline, and Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette observes that the value of both McCutchen and right-hander Gerrit Cole is increasing. Rival evaluators have pointed to Texas as a fit for the two, with one evaluator suggesting that the Rangers would have to give up outfielder Leody Taveras or left-hander Yohander Mendez just for McCutchen, according to Brink. Both Taveras (No. 45) and Mendez (No. 46) rank among MLB Pipeline’s top 50 prospects.
  • Sticking with the McCutchen theme, Ryan Lawrence of PhillyVoice.com opines that the in-state rival Phillies should pursue a deal for the 30-year-old. Given that the Phillies have the majors’ worst record (27-53), McCutchen wouldn’t help them vie for a playoff berth this year, but Lawrence argues that he’d still be a worthwhile addition. Philadelphia could acquire McCutchen with the goal of extending him past next season, when his team control expires. If they fail to reach a multiyear agreement by next summer and the Phillies aren’t in the playoff hunt, they’d potentially be able to flip McCutchen, contends Lawrence.

Trade Chatter: A’s, Giants, Yankees, McCutchen, Avila, Dodgers

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Though Sonny Gray has garnered most of the headlines in Athletics trade rumors, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that Jed Lowrie, Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson are all drawing interest as well. The A’s are hoping to move Lowrie to clear a spot for prospect Franklin Barreto to play in the Majors on a full-time basis, she notes. Barreto is currently getting at-bats, but Oakland also has Marcus Semien on the mend and returning perhaps in a week or more. Doolittle and Madson are both in the midst of strong seasons, although the injury-prone Doolittle has been limited to 14 2/3 innings. Madson, meanwhile, looks even better than he did in his 2015 comeback; he’s averaging 9.8 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 with a 54.4 percent ground-ball rate, leading to a 2.35 ERA. Of course, he’s also earning $7.5MM this year and next, and his contract calls for incentives for finishing games, which could make the price even more steep. The Rangers, Cubs, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Braves and Astros have all been scouting Oakland recently, according to Slusser.

Some more trade chatter from around the game…

  • The Giants aren’t looking to rebuild so much as they’re looking to reload, president Larry Baer tells Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area. Baer acknowledged that the 2017 campaign hasn’t been anything close to what the organization had hoped, but he also indicated that even if the front office moves some veterans this summer, the ultimate goal will be to return to contention in 2018. “Directionally it’s, ‘How can we get right back there in 2018,” said Baer. “It’s not how can we get right back there in 2022 or 2021.” Pavlovic notes that it’s possible the Giants could try to trade Johnny Cueto and still re-sign him this winter if he exercises his opt-out clause with a new team, and Baer wouldn’t rule out that possibility, simply stating that it was “possible” but declining to speculate too heavily.
  • The Yankees are looking for bullpen help “right now,” writes FanRag’s Jon Heyman as part of his weekly American League Notes column. The duo of Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances is formidable in the late innings, but the recent struggles of Tyler Clippard and others have GM Brian Cashman on the lookout. Cashman told Heyman that the Yankees aren’t looking for a first baseman at the moment, though recent injury news regarding Tyler Austin and Greg Bird, of course, could change that line of thinking in a hurry.
  • There’s been no serious talk between the Pirates and other clubs regarding Andrew McCutchen just yet, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Part of the reason for that is the parity that exists in Wild Card races, as many teams that could eventually add some veteran pieces remain uncertain that they’ll be in the hunt a month from now.
  • Also via Morosi, Tigers catcher Alex Avila is “on the radar” of the Cubs and the Blue Jays. Avila has had a staggering turnaround in his return to Detroit, hitting a ridiculous .315/.431/.586 with 11 homers while earning just a $2MM salary on a one-year deal. While many fans are understandably skeptical of Avila’s turnaround, I’ll point out that Avila’s 57 percent hard-hit rate leads all players with at least 190 plate appearances, and he entered play Thursday tied with teammate J.D. Martinez for the third-highest average exit velocity in baseball (93.7 mph), trailing only Aaron Judge and Miguel Sano. Avila has always had a massive walk rate, as well, and that’s been the case once again in 2017 (16.4 percent). There’s some regression coming, of course, as even with his batted-ball profile he’s probably not going to sustain a .426 BABIP.
  • One more from Morosi, who notes that the Dodgers’ primary focus remains on starting pitching at this time. They’re considering controllable options rather than rental pieces, with Morosi linking Los Angeles to the the Tigers’ Justin Verlander, the Athletics’ Sonny Gray, the White Sox’ Jose Quintana and the Pirates’ Gerrit Cole.
  • For those still looking for more trade-related content to peruse, Heyman penned a column highlighting nearly 100 possible trade candidates, ranging from valuable-but-unlikely-to-move names (e.g. Josh Donaldson, Gerrit Cole) to bad contracts that current teams would like to escape in a potential salary dump (e.g. Junichi Tazawa, Matt Cain). There are some quotes from scouts, general managers and other league execs mixed in throughout.

Trade Chatter: Jays, Braves, O’s, ChiSox, BoSox, Bucs, Dodgers, Tigers

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While the Blue Jays got off to a terrible start in 2017, their strong play from late April through early June has them back in the mix for a Wild Card spot, writes MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand as part of a look at numerous trade-related topics. As such, the Jays don’t seem like obvious sellers at the moment — a sentiment that GM Ross Atkins himself suggested to Feinsand. “Obviously we’re not pleased with our record, but we’re pleased with the fact that our team was able to dig out of a significant hole,” the GM said. “…Now we’re very much in it. We can’t climb back into one of those holes, because there’s not as much time left.” The Jays fell to 35-37 with tonight’s loss, though they’re still just five back in the AL East and 2.5 games out of an AL Wild Card spot. Feinsand notes that the injury to Devon Travis makes second base the biggest need Toronto faces between now and the trade deadline and lists a few speculative targets for Toronto, including Ian Kinsler and Jed Lowrie.

A bit more from Feinsand and some other trade chatter to close out the night…

  • The Braves have already received interest in Jaime Garcia, Brandon Phillips and Jason Motte, Feinsand reports, but the Braves are likely to hold for now as they seek to generate interest from additional clubs. Garcia was hit hard for the second straight start tonight, but he’s been solid for the majority of the season and could step into the back of a contender’s rotation as a reliable source of league-average innings. Phillips, meanwhile, has been quietly productive in his first season with Atlanta, and the Reds are on the hook for nearly all of his salary. And Motte, since inking a minors pact with the Braves, has turned in a 2.14 ERA through 21 innings, albeit with some very unappealing peripherals (5.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, .179 BABIP, 5.89 FIP, 5.09 SIERA).
  • Despite a lack of starting pitching and a very rough stretch over the past month, the Orioles still view themselves as contenders, GM Dan Duquette tells FanRag’s Jon Heyman. “We have a number of players who are capable of playing better and contributing more to the 2017 team than they have to date,” says Duquette. “…They have all played to a much higher level than they have played at so far this season. We are still contenders and we look forward to these players contributing to the club.” Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Zach Britton, Mark Trumbo and Darren O’Day are among the rebound candidates listed by Duquette, whose Orioles are 13-28 in their past 41 games.
  • While the White Sox are known to be open for business, Heyman reports that there isn’t presently much of a market for Todd Frazier or Melky Cabrera. He hears that the Sox would “have to practically give [Frazier] away” or at eat virtually all of his salary in a trade. Frazier’s swinging a hot bat in June (.269/.351/.537, five homers), so perhaps he’s beginning to turn it around and boost that stock. Cabrera, meanwhile, is hitting quite well in 2017 after a slow start to the year, as he’s slashed .331/.386/.480 over the past calendar month. I’d imagine, however, that his $15MM salary and defensive shortcomings limit his market despite the improved production. Also of ChiSox note: Heyman writes that there’s no evidence of recent talks with the Nationals regarding David Robertson.
  • The Red Sox should be able to add about $9MM to their payroll this summer without crossing the luxury tax barrier, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. While around $2MM of that sum could be set aside for the salary that’ll need to be paid for internal promotions, Boston should have the remaining funds to address one, if not two needs, provided they don’t break the bank for a starting pitcher. Speier again lists Todd Frazier as a possibility, and Heyman linked the Red Sox to the Royals’ Mike Moustakas in his aforementioned column. Feinsand notes that Boston is indeed “in the market” for third base help as well, with Pablo Sandoval back on the DL and not playing well even when on the field.
  • MLB.com’s Jon Morosi runs down a host of trade-related topics in his latest column, echoing recent suggestions from FOX’s Ken Rosenthal that the Pirates are likelier to trade Andrew McCutchen than Gerrit Cole. However, execs around the game do expect Pittsburgh to at least listen to offers on Cole, Morosi writes, though it may be hard for the Bucs to sell low on Cole.
  • The Dodgers are more focused on adding rotation help than landing a significant bat due largely to the emergence of Cody Bellinger, per Morosi. According to Morosi, though, the Tigers have eyes on Dodgers prospect Alex Verdugo and would like to come away from the 2017 trade deadline with a center field option for the 2018 season, if they emerge as sellers. (Detroit hasn’t yet made that determination, he adds.) Tigers outfielder J.D. Martinez, Morosi points out, could be among the targets the Dodgers look at if they do elect to pursue a right-handed-hitting outfielder, though that connection is made speculatively, and I’d expect the Dodgers to be rather reluctant to part with a near-MLB-ready asset such as Verdugo in order to land a rental like Martinez.

Rosenthal’s Latest: McCutchen, Cole, Hand, Cubs

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In his latest notes column, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes that while there’s a pretty good chance of an Andrew McCutchen trade this summer, the Pirates aren’t by any means planning a full tear-down of the roster. As such, Rosenthal notes that right-hander Gerrit Cole isn’t likely to be traded, considering he’s controllable for two more years beyond the current campaign. Trading McCutchen, whose bat has come to life over the past few weeks, wouldn’t be done as a means of waving a white flag on the 2017 campaign. Rather, the team could look to replace him in the lineup with a more affordable and/or controllable trade acquisition, as the Bucs did last year when replacing Melancon and Francisco Liriano with Felipe Rivero and Ivan Nova. McCutchen has a club option for the 2018 season that is valued at $14.5MM, and he’ll be a free agent thereafter.

A couple more highlights…

  • The Padres are seeking a “Will Smith” type of return for lefty setup man Brad Hand, one rival executive tell Rosenthal. The Brewers traded Smith to the Giants last season in exchange for right-hander Phil Bickford, who at the time was 14 months removed from being a first-round pick, and catcher Andrew Susac — a former top prospect with MLB experience already under his belt. The Padres, of course, needn’t look to mirror that exact structure, but it seems fair to believe that GM A.J. Preller and his staff are hopeful of acquiring one near-MLB-ready asset and another highly touted young prospect in any deal for Hand, who is controllable through 2019. A pair of recent rough outings have made Hand’s numbers look a bit more mortal, but he’s still sporting a strong 2.84 ERA with 11.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 50 percent ground-ball rate through 38 innings.
  • Rosenthal also writes that fans shouldn’t expect to see the Cubs trade any of their young MLB-level hitters this summer. He suggests that Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras, Albert Almora and even the less-experienced Ian Happ are all unlikely to be moved, though Chicago certainly has a number of upper-level prospects that would entice rival teams to part with talent that could help turn around the season for the reigning World Series champions. Rosenthal also spoke with right-hander Jake Arrieta at length in an interesting interview about his struggles this season. While the former Cy Young winner conceded that his workload in 2015-16 may be having more of an effect on him than he’d like to admit. As Rosenthal notes, virtually every member of the Cubs’ rotation that pitched into the World Series has had some level of struggle this season, and the same is largely true of the Indians.

Trade Candidate: Gerrit Cole

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Major league teams are always on the lookout for established, affordable pitching. That fact could make right-hander Gerrit Cole, he of the $3.75MM salary, among the most appealing players available if the Pirates shop him prior to the trade deadline.

While Cole has drawn interest, there’s no indication Pittsburgh will place him on the block in the next couple months. However, the Pirates are just 25-31 – four games behind the NL Central-leading Brewers and eight games out of a wild-card spot – so it looks likely they’ll end up selling. As such, it could behoove the Bucs to at least listen to offers for Cole, especially if they’re unconvinced they’ll be able to return to their playoff-caliber ways of 2013-15 in the near future. The Pirates’ window with Cole is running out (he’s controllable via arbitration through 2019), and as a low-payroll outfit, odds are the team won’t be able to keep the Scott Boras client from hitting free agency if it elects against trading him in the coming years.

Gerrit Cole

The problem for the Pirates, both from a contending standpoint and for Cole’s trade value, is that the 26-year-old has taken steps backward since his earlier days in the league. During his best season, 2015, Cole was a bona fide ace who notched 208 innings of 2.60 ERA ball (with a 2.66 FIP) and helped his cause with strong strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. Cole’s ERA went up nearly a run and a half last year (3.88, with a still-impressive 3.33 FIP) as his strikeout rate sunk, but injuries may have played a part in that. Pittsburgh shut down Cole in early September after just 116 innings and multiple stints on the disabled list – one for a strained triceps and another for elbow inflammation.

Fortunately, Cole has stayed healthy this year and already amassed 71 2/3 frames, but the results haven’t been great. While Cole has continued to limit walks (2.01 per nine) and generate grounders (46 percent), he ranks middle of the pack or worse among FanGraphs’ 89 qualifying starters in ERA (4.27, 55th), FIP (4.77, 67th), K/9 (7.66, 50th) and strikeout percentage (20.3, 47th). The main culprit for Cole’s run prevention issues is a bloated home run-to-fly ball ratio (19.7 percent), up from a career 9.3 percent. With 15 homers allowed, Cole has already established a career worst and yielded eight more long balls than he did during his truncated 2016.

Cole’s history indicates he’ll positively regress in the home run department, but it’s not a sure thing if his fastball doesn’t regain its effectiveness. Although Cole sits second among starters in average sinker velocity (96.15) and third in four-seam velo (96.73), according to Baseball Prospectus, he hasn’t exactly dominated with those pitches. Back in 2015, Cole had the second-most valuable fastball among starters, per FanGraphs, but it has been the ninth-worst pitch of its kind so far this year. Hitters have posted a .947 OPS against Cole’s four-seamer and a .945 mark versus his sinker, the two pitches he has leaned on the most, while his third, fourth and fifth offerings (his slider, changeup and knuckle-curve) have yielded an OPS of .644, .645 and .697, respectively.

Left-handed hitters have been especially tough on Cole, having slashed .276/.308/.572 with 10 homers and held their own against nearly all of his pitches, primarily his four-seamer. That certainly wasn’t the case when Cole’s four-seamer stymied lefties in 2015, and heat maps courtesy of FanGraphs (click to view: 2015, 2017) indicate he’s not locating the pitch as precisely as he did then. Meanwhile, with the exception of his sinker, Cole’s repertoire has limited same-handed batters, who have hit .244/.304/.314 against him. Four of righties’ five HRs off Cole have come against his sinker, which was tough to square up during his career year. As Brooks Baseball’s heat maps show (click to view: 2015, 2017), Cole’s not coming inside against righties with his sinker to nearly the extent that he did in the past, and the pitch has too often found the middle of the plate.

In fairness to Cole, his struggles this year largely boil down to his most recent three starts, a 14 2/3-inning stretch in which he gave up a combined 16 earned runs on 28 hits and eight homers. As recently as May 21, Cole was running a sub-3.00 ERA, and eight of his first nine outings were quality starts. If that version of Cole resurfaces and the Pirates do shop him by the end of July, they’d be within reason to request a prospect bounty in return. On the other hand, should the Cole who has shown up over the past two weeks stick around, Pittsburgh might be better served to keep the fifth-year man through season’s end and market him over the winter or during the 2018 campaign. After all, if Cole’s woes against opposite-handed batters continue, starter-needy contenders like the Astros, Yankees and Rockies – all of whom play in hitter-friendly parks – may not be keen on parting with multiple high-end prospects for someone generating so-so results.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cafardo’s Latest: Cole, Astros, Gordon, Peralta, Frazier

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The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo shares some hot stove rumblings and more in his latest notes column….

  • The Astros are “very interested” in Pirates righty Gerrit Cole.  Houston has been checking in on top-tier starters for months, so it makes sense that the team would have an eye on Cole’s availability.  Peter Gammons recently suggested that the Astros (and Yankees) may be the only contenders who could actually afford a Cole trade, given Houston’s deep farm system and the giant return that the Pirates will surely demand for their controllable young star if Cole is indeed shopped at the deadline.
  • “The Marlins would surely part with” Dee Gordon if they could find a trade partner at the deadline.  Miami was reportedly ready to deal Gordon for pitching help over the offseason, though no trade or even any significant rumors even materialized.  Gordon has hit just .263/.308/.326 over 522 PA since the start of the 2016 season, a year that saw the second baseman miss 80 games after testing positive for PEDs.  He is also owed $38MM from 2018-20 as per the terms of his five-year, $50MM extension signed in the 2015-16 offseason, further hampering the Marlins’ chances of finding a trade fit.
  • With Jhonny Peralta relegated to backup duty in St. Louis, Cafardo wonders if the Red Sox would considering acquiring Peralta to help their shaky third base situation.  Given Peralta’s recent injury problems and his .251/.299/.387 slash line (in 341 PA) since the start of the 2016 season, of course, there’s no guarantee that Peralta is necessarily an upgrade.  Peralta is also owed around $7.4MM for the remainder of the season, though Cafardo feels the Cardinals would cover “a great portion” of that salary.  Cafardo notes that Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski knows Peralta well, having traded for Peralta in 2010 back when Dombrowski was the Tigers GM.
  • The Red Sox have been scouting a veteran third baseman in Todd Frazier, and like in a hypothetical Peralta scenario, the White Sox would cover some salary in a trade (Frazier is owed a little under $9MM for the rest of 2017).  Also like Peralta, Frazier isn’t in good form, hitting just .191/.280/.357 in 132 PA this season.  Frazier has hit 75 homers over the last two years, however, and is a well-regarded clubhouse leader.
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