Jack Flaherty

Orioles Still Looking To Make Additions

By Darragh McDonald | July 28, 2024 at 11:50am CDT

The Orioles have already made a few notable moves in the lead-up to the trade deadline. They sent outfielder Austin Hays to the Phillies for fellow outfielder Cristian Pache and reliever Seranthony Domínguez, and also bolstered their rotation by acquiring Zach Eflin from the Rays. But they still have work to do, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reporting that they are looking to add another reliever, who would ideally be left-handed, as well as a right-handed hitting outfielder to replace Hays and perhaps another starting pitcher.

Even with Eflin slotting in behind Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez, it’s easy to see why the O’s would want to add yet another arm into that mix. The final two rotation spots are currently held by Dean Kremer and Albert Suárez, both of whom could be improved upon.

Kremer has a servicebale 4.32 earned run average in his career and a 4.20 mark this year, but his .240 batting average on balls in play here in 2024 might be keeping that ERA artificially low. In general, he’s been more of a back-end guy than the type of arm they would want in the mix for starting a playoff game. Suárez is in the big leagues for the first time since 2017, having spent much of the interim pitching in Japan and Korea. His 3.48 ERA this year is certainly respectable but he’s 34 years old and the O’s have kicked him to the bullpen before.

Rosenthal adds that the club is willing to add a rental starter to that pile, listing Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Blake Snell and Frankie Montas as possible fits. Snell has another year left on his deal but has an opt-out at year’s end. Rosenthal says teams are expecting him to trigger that opt-out but it’s not a guarantee, as it’s entirely possible some injury or poor performance leads to him taking the proverbial bird in the hand. Trading players with opt-outs is a tricky situation that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored in a piece for Front Office subscribers.

The mention of Flaherty is interesting as the O’s acquired him at last year’s deadline and it didn’t go well. The righty had a 6.75 ERA in 34 2/3 innings with Baltimore last year, getting bumped to the bullpen in the process.

However, he has completely turned things around here in 2024. In 18 starts with the Tigers, he has a 2.95 ERA, 32% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate and 43% ground ball rate. That’s the best form he’s been in since 2019, when he looked to be breaking out as one of the better pitchers in the league. He then suffered through a number of injury-marred seasons and took some time getting over them, but there’s no doubting he’s been excellent this year.

Front offices are generally loath to reacquire a player if they already had him and it didn’t go well. If the second attempt also fails to deliver, then it invites the obvious criticism of why they tried the same thing that already didn’t work once, something that was recently discussed on the MLBTR Podcast. However, Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic published a column a few days ago that said the O’s aren’t ruling out another run at Flaherty.

Though there’s a chance for a negative PR situation if Flaherty struggles in Baltimore again, he’s got the best combination of talent and availability among starting pitchers. He is on a one-year deal and therefore a rental, pitching for a Detroit club that is 5.5 games out of a playoff spot. While pitchers like Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal are in a similar range as Flaherty in terms of impact, they may be harder to pry loose.

Both of Skubal and Crochet are controllable for two years behind this season, meaning the price will be higher. Crochet also has the extra complication of his unclear path to the end of the season, as his limited workload makes it unclear what he can contribute. Some clubs may want to move him to a relief role but Crochet himself reportedly prefers to continue starting and would want to sign a contract extension prior to adjusting his routine.

With the question marks around Skubal and Crochet, it makes sense that the O’s aren’t crossing Flaherty off their list of targets, as the other options are less appealing. Kikuchi and Montas are having okay but not amazing years, to differing extents, while Snell has been inconsistent and also has the aforementioned contract complications.

Turning to the bullpen, though Domínguez is a nice addition, further upgrades make plenty of sense. Baltimore relievers have a collective 3.87 ERA this year, which places them 14th out of the 30 clubs in the majors. With Danny Coulombe on the injured list, their southpaw contingent is made up of Cionel Pérez, Keegan Akin and Cole Irvin. Akin has really good numbers this year but hasn’t been pitching in many high-leverage situations. Pérez has been given more meaningful assignments but with a subpar 4.40 ERA. Irvin was in the rotation before some struggles got him nudged into a long relief role.

Upgrading that group is plenty sensible and the O’s have already been connected to Tanner Scott of the Orioles. Other lefties that could be available include Andrew Chafin of the Tigers, Jalen Beeks of the Rockies, Taylor Rogers of the Giants and others.

In the outfield, the club leans heavily left-handed with Hays now out of the mix. Pache is right-handed but he’s mostly a defensive specialist, having hit .179/.243/.272 in his career. Anthony Santander is a switch-hitter but each of Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Kyle Stowers hit from the left side, as does designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn and shortstop Gunnar Henderson.

Getting another righty in there makes sense, especially if they end up moving on from first baseman Ryan Mountcastle. They are reportedly open to trading him and/or Mullins, though sending out Hays perhaps makes those scenarios less likely.

Rosenthal throws out veterans Tommy Pham and Kevin Pillar as a couple of righty-swinging outfielders that could make sense for the O’s, though guys like Brent Rooker, Luis Robert Jr., Lane Thomas, Miguel Andujar and Taylor Ward could also be available. The trade deadline is 5pm Central on Tuesday July 30.

Dodgers Trade Rumors: Flaherty, Finnegan, Paredes, Hoerner, Rengifo

By Mark Polishuk | July 28, 2024 at 8:54am CDT

The Dodgers are expected to be very active prior to the July 30 trade deadline, as while Los Angeles still has the fourth-best winning percentage (.585) in baseball, the team is just 10-12 in its last 22 games. Injuries all over the roster have left L.A. with plenty of holes to fill, and the Dodgers are therefore casting a wide berth in exploring possible deadline pickups.

With starting pitching a particular need, Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty is a Dodgers target, according to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Nationals reliever Kyle Finnegan, Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes, Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, and Angels infielder Luis Rengifo have also received consideration, as per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, since the Dodgers are trying to shore up both their bullpen and the infield.

Since Flaherty is a free agent after the season, he is one of the more obvious rental candidates available considering that the Tigers (despite some good recent play) are still only 52-54 and more on the outskirts of the AL wild card race. As noted by both Petzold and Nightengale, Detroit’s asking price for Flaherty is both high and somewhat straight-forward — teams will have to offer the Tigers something they deem more valuable than the compensatory draft pick the Tigers would receive this winter if Flaherty rejects the team’s inevitable qualifying offer and signs elsewhere.

The Dodgers’ rotation needs have somewhat lessened now that Tyler Glasnow is back from the injured list and Clayton Kershaw has made his season debut, but L.A. still has a whopping nine pitchers on the IL. Walker Buehler is on a Triple-A rehab assignment, though Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s timetable is still unclear, and Yamamoto will be out until late August at the earliest as he recovers from a triceps injury. Los Angeles did feel comfortable enough in its pitching depth to deal James Paxton to the Red Sox, but Flaherty is more of a front-of-the-rotation type that could conceivably start a playoff game.

Likewise, Finnegan could slot right into what has become something of a fluid late-game mix. Evan Phillips is still ostensibly the Dodgers’ top choice as closer, though his recent struggles have brought Daniel Hudson and Blake Treinen into the picture as save candidates. Manager Dave Roberts recently stated that Phillips could be deployed in any high-leverage situation late in games rather than specifically just the ninth inning, which opens the door for L.A. to solidify things by landing another experienced closer like Finnegan.

Since Finnegan is arbitration-controlled through 2025, he’d also be able to help Los Angeles next season in addition to this year’s playoff run. This extra year of control means that the Nationals would get an even nicer return by moving him at the deadline, though D.C. might consider waiting until the offseason to gauge offers if nobody steps up with an acceptable enough trade package by Tuesday. The Nats already got a good score in moving Hunter Harvey to the Royals earlier this month, and between the Harvey deal and yesterday’s trade of Jesse Winker to the Mets, Washington is clearly in sell mode.

The infield targets all come with varying degrees of control beyond just the 2024 season. Rengifo is arb-controlled through 2025, Paredes is arb-controlled through 2027 as a Super Two player, and Hoerner is signed through 2026 via the three-year, $35MM deal he inked prior to the 2023 season. That extension started this year, so Hoerner is owed roughly $3.9MM in salary for the rest of 2024, as well as $11.5MM in 2025 and $12MM in 2026.

Sticking with Hoerner, that is a decent-sized price tag for a Dodgers team already far over the highest tier of luxury tax penalization. In terms of both the actual salary and the added tax hit, Hoerner’s dollar value would come at more than double the size of his contract, as the Dodgers have an additional repeater penalty for exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax in each of the previous three seasons. This cost could be reduced if Los Angeles sent another contract to Chicago in return, or the Cubs could absorb more of Hoerner’s deal if the Dodgers improved the value of the trade package.

The latter scenario could involve better prospects, or perhaps more win-now types of players for a Cubs team that is still aiming to contend in 2025, even if 2024 is looking like a wash. Moving a reliable everyday player like Hoerner would be a bold move for the Cubs, yet for a team that has a good amount of middle infield depth, trading Hoerner could allow Chicago to upgrade in other areas.

A defensive standout at either middle infield position, Hoerner could give the Dodgers an answer to their shortstop woes, as both Mookie Betts and Miguel Rojas are injured. Installing Hoerner at short would allow Betts to play second base (or even move back to the outfield) when he is healthy, and Rojas and Gavin Lux would then assume depth roles. With Hoerner locked up through 2026, the Dodgers could then explore returning Betts back to right field altogether, or perhaps at least limit him to second base when he does get infield work.

Rengifo is a utility player who can play all over the diamond, though he doesn’t offer strong glovework at any position. The switch-hitter does bring more offense than Hoerner, and Rengifo has returned in seemingly good health after a three-week absence due to wrist inflammation. Perhaps the biggest obstacle to a Rengifo trade for the Dodgers would be the fact that the two L.A. teams are infrequent trade partners. Ironically, Rengifo was part of an infamously scuttled trade between the Angels and Dodgers in February 2020, which reportedly left Halos owner Arte Moreno upset at the idea of ever again doing business with his local rivals.

Conversely, the Rays and Dodgers have lined up on several trades over the years, including the blockbuster deal that sent Glasnow to Los Angeles just this past offseason. This could help the Dodgers in working out a Paredes trade, who would likely play third base with Max Muncy’s recovery from an oblique strain still up in the air. Since Muncy is signed through at least 2025 and Paredes would be a longer-term addition, one of the two could likely be moved to second base in 2025, which also helps the Dodgers’ middle infield picture to some extent. The Rangers, Astros, and Mariners are among the other teams who have been linked to Paredes in recent rumors, though intriguingly, Nightengale writes that the Yankees and Dodgers are in a “bidding war” over the All-Star infielder.

Latest On Yankees’ Deadline Plans

By Nick Deeds | July 27, 2024 at 7:28pm CDT

The Yankees swung a major trade earlier today when they acquired second baseman and center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the Marlins in exchange for a three-prospect package. The addition of Chisholm helps to address an offense that has struggled to produce when anyone other than Juan Soto or Aaron Judge is at the plate, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote in the aftermath of the Chisholm trade this evening that the club plans to continue being aggressive on the trade market as they look to return to the postseason after missing for the first time since 2016 last year.

According to Sherman, the Yankees’ ideal deadline involves acquiring at least two hitters and two relievers. The addition of Chisholm locks up one of those hitting additions, although there’s still plenty of room for improvement around New York’s lineup. Ben Rice has held his own at first base in place of the injured Anthony Rizzo, and Anthony Volpe appears certain to continue getting everyday reps at shortstop, but third base appears to be a clear hole for the club. SNY’s Andy Martino reported earlier today that the Yankees were planning to address the hot corner before the trade deadline. While it’s theoretically possible to imagine Chisholm, a former shortstop with enough arm to handle center field, sliding over to third base for the Yankees, he’s never played the position before as a professional and the club may prefer to keep him in more familiar spots on the diamond for the time being.

If the Yankees do pursue an addition at third base, Sherman suggests that Isaac Paredes of the Rays, Luis Rengifo of the Angels, and Matt Chapman of the Giants could be among the options the club entertains. Chapman’s 111 wRC+ is the lowest of those three options but any of them would be a major upgrade over the paltry 75 wRC+ the club has gotten from its third baseman this year, a figure that ranks third worst in baseball this year. A deal for a third baseman, according to Sherman, could free up the Yankees to move another bat such as second baseman Gleyber Torres or center fielder Trent Grisham in a deal for bullpen help, though it also stands to reason that Chisholm could bounce between the keystone and the outfield depending on matchups, allowing the club to sit struggling lefties like Verdugo and Grisham against southpaws while giving players like Torres and LeMahieu more days off against right-handed starters.

As for the bullpen, the Yankees are known to have interest in Marlins southpaw Tanner Scott, and today’s deal between the sides for Chisholm does not figure to stop the clubs from getting together on another deal before the deadline should they be able to reach in agreement regarding the lefty. That being said, there are plenty of other late-inning relief options that figure to be available this summer. Nationals closer Kyle Finnegan and Rays closer Pete Fairbanks are both among the arms with closing experience rumored to be available. NJ.com’s Randy Miller reported earlier today that the Rays and Yankees were in the midst of “serious talks” regarding a Fairbanks deal, though MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch subsequently reported that nothing is close between the sides regarding Fairbanks.

Failing a reliable late-inning option, there figure to be plenty of other potentially interesting options available such White Sox flamethrower Michael Kopech, Cubs veteran Hector Neris, and Blue Jays righty Trevor Richards. Each of that trio have struggled to varying degrees this year but could be a fairly interesting addition for the Yankees bullpen, particularly if acquired as a secondary addition behind a more impactful arm like Fairbanks, Scott, or Finnegan.

Another possibility for bolstering the club’s relief corps Sherman suggests would be looking at the market for rental starting pitching. As reported by Sherman, the Yankees have inquired after Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty, who sports an excellent 2.95 ERA and 3.10 FIP in 106 2/3 innings of work for Detroit this year, Sherman suggests that such a move could allow the Yankees to move right-hander Luis Gil to the bullpen as a high leverage arm. Such a move would both fortify the relief corps while also helping to limit Gil’s innings. The righty has already thrown 107 1/3 frames this year after throwing just 138 1/3 total innings between 2021 and 2023 due to a variety of injuries.

The idea of preserving Gil’s health by moving him to the bullpen might be an attractive one for New York, although it’s worth noting that it would require a starter of Flaherty’s caliber for the loss of Gil from the rotation mix not to be a downgrade overall. Gil’s first big league action since 2022 has gone exceptionally well as he’s posted a 3.10 ERA with a 3.52 FIP across 20 starts for the Yankees this year while filling out the club’s rotation in the place of injured starters—first Gerrit Cole, then Clarke Schmidt.

Astros Interested In Flaherty, Kikuchi

By Anthony Franco | July 27, 2024 at 1:46pm CDT

The Astros are one of the teams most aggressively seeking starting pitching. They’ve already been tied to Jameson Taillon, Erick Fedde, and (before he was traded to Baltimore instead) Zach Eflin. Reporting yesterday also linked Houston to the top two rental starting pitchers on the market.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted last night that the Astros and Tigers have talked about righty Jack Flaherty. The Athletic’s Chandler Rome writes that Houston has interest in both Flaherty and Toronto southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. Flaherty and Kikuchi are each expected to move before next Tuesday’s deadline. The left-hander told reporters after last night’s start — almost certainly his last in a Jays uniform — that Toronto GM Ross Atkins has already informed him that he’s likely to be traded (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). The Tigers haven’t made quite as strong a declaration on Flaherty, but they’re three games under .500 and 6.5 games back of the American League’s last Wild Card spot.

Flaherty is having the better season of the two. The 28-year-old has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. He owns a 2.95 earned run average across 18 starts. He’s averaging nearly six innings per appearance and missing bats at an elite rate. Flaherty has punched out a personal-best 32% of opposing hitters. His walk rate is below 5% for the first time in his career. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Garrett Crochet has a bigger gap between his strikeout and walk percentages. Flaherty is fifth among that group in strikeout rate, 14th in ERA and seventh in swinging strike percentage (14.1%).

Kikuchi also has plus strikeout and walk numbers, though he’s not missing quite as many bats as Flaherty has. Kikuchi is 24th in swinging strike rate and ranks 18th with a 26.2% strikeout percentage. He has fired 115 2/3 innings across 22 starts. His 4.75 ERA isn’t all that impressive, yet that mark is inflated by a very high .340 average on balls in play and a modest 70.6% strand rate. Kikuchi’s BABIP and left on base numbers were closer to league average last season, when he worked to a 3.86 ERA over 32 starts.

Astros general manager Dana Brown discussed his rotation pursuit with reporters on Friday afternoon (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Brown said the team would be happy with a “a third starter or a fourth starter” who could slot behind Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and perhaps a healthy Justin Verlander in the rotation. (Ronel Blanco has also had an excellent season, but he’s in uncharted territory in terms of MLB workload.) Brown said it’d be “real difficult” to land someone who slots into the top two spots in the rotation, pointing to the lack of supply in high-end arms this summer.

One can debate whether Flaherty qualifies as a #1/#2 arm. He has certainly pitched at that level this year, but he’s one season removed from running a 4.99 ERA with middling strikeout and walk numbers. Kikuchi fits more clearly into the #3/4 starter bucket which Brown described, as home run issues have kept him from ever reaching a consistent top-of-the-rotation level.

While that could point to Kikuchi being the more likely target, the Astros seem engaged on a number of fronts. Houston has one of the weaker farm systems in the majors, but the limited control window on Flaherty and Kikuchi will cap the return to some extent. Brown noted that while he’d ideally land a pitcher who is controllable beyond this season, the Astros aren’t averse to acquiring a rental. He added that there’s no one in the minor league pipeline he’d consider categorically untouchable, though he indicated he preferred to avoid dealing directly off the MLB roster.

Outfielder Jacob Melton is the only Houston player who made Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospect update. The Tigers could justifiably ask for him in a Flaherty deal. Detroit has the ability to make Flaherty a qualifying offer if they don’t trade him this summer. Assuming he signs for more than $50MM next winter, the Tigers would get a compensatory pick after the 2025 first round. They’d need to value any trade package more heavily than they do the pick (plus whatever small chance they have of making a playoff push this year). Jake Bloss, who is currently working out of the big league rotation, is the #2 player on BA’s most recent update of the Astros’ system. He’s followed by 2023 first-round pick Brice Matthews and another current big leaguer, outfielder Joey Loperfido.

Flaherty is playing this season on a $14MM salary, while Kikuchi is making $10MM in the final season of a backloaded three-year deal. The former is due around $4.82M for the stretch run; the latter is still owed around $3.44MM. Any salary the Astros take on would count against their luxury tax ledger, which already sits at a franchise-high $256MM (calculated by RosterResource).

The Astros will be taxed at a 32% rate for salary they absorb when their payroll is between $257MM and $277MM. Brown broadly indicated the team was open to adding salary, saying that owner Jim Crane “understands that it’s important for us to get a starter … so I don’t think payroll is going to hold us back.”

Phillies Showing Interest In Lane Thomas, Kyle Finnegan

By Anthony Franco | July 24, 2024 at 11:56pm CDT

The Phillies are about as well-positioned as any team with the deadline approaching. While Philadelphia has tailed off lately and is playing at a .500 pace this month, they’re nine games clear of the Braves in the NL East. They hold a three-game edge on the Dodgers for the top record in the National League and have arguably the most well-rounded roster in MLB.

They’re obviously positioned as buyers and should at least make some additions around the margins. They’ve been seeking a right-handed hitting outfielder for the last couple weeks. The bullpen has fallen on hard times this month, making that another obvious area for potential upgrade.

One of Philadelphia’s division rivals would make for a natural trade partner. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that the Phils have expressed interest in Nationals’ outfielder Lane Thomas and closer Kyle Finnegan. Washington could market both players, each of whom is under arbitration control for one more season. The Nats are considering offers on players they control for this season and next. They already dealt one such player, setup man Hunter Harvey, to the Royals in one of the more impactful moves in what has been a slow-moving deadline season.

Thomas is a right-handed hitter who does the vast majority of his damage in favorable platoon situations. He is destroying lefties at a .329/.414/.518 clip over 99 plate appearances this season. While a half-season platoon split is an extremely small sample, Thomas has been a lefty masher throughout his career. He’s a .307/.369/.520 hitter against southpaws. Thomas has produced below-average numbers versus righties. That has again been the case this year, as he’s hitting .211/.269/.347 without the platoon advantage.

The Nats have maintained they view Thomas as more than a short-side platoon bat. He has been in the starting lineup for 73 of the team’s 102 games. That includes a couple starts in center field, but Thomas is best served in a corner. He’s a middling defender even in right field.

Thomas isn’t the answer if the Phils are looking to upgrade over Johan Rojas in center field. Philadelphia would like a lefty-hitting complement for Brandon Marsh in left. Marsh has been an above-average bat (.274/.350/.448) against righties over his career. He hasn’t done anything against left-handers, striking out more than 40% of the time en route to a .211/.268/.289 slash.

Gelb writes that the Phillies aren’t exclusively looking at right-handed hitters in their outfield search. They could upgrade on either Rojas or Nick Castellanos in right if they landed an everyday player. A Thomas-Marsh platoon in left would yield excellent results, although it remains to be seen if the Phils are willing to meet Washington’s asking price to immediately curtail Thomas’ playing time. The 28-year-old outfielder is playing on a $5.45MM salary.

Finnegan is a more valuable trade asset. He was a first-time All-Star this summer after a few seasons of quietly strong work at the back of the Washington ’pen. Finnegan has worked as their closer for most of the past four years. After three straight seasons allowing between three and four earned runs per nine, he carries a 2.32 mark over 42 2/3 frames. Finnegan is 28 of 32 in save chances and has solid peripherals.

The righty has fanned 26% of batters faced against an 8.3% walk percentage. He’s sitting north of 97 MPH with his fastball and is getting swinging strikes at a decent 11.8% clip. Finnegan’s stuff is probably a tick below that of the top handful of relievers in the game, but he’s a consistently effective presence with ample ninth inning experience.

Philadelphia’s closing situation has been in flux with José Alvarado scuffling lately. Gregory Soto took the ninth in a tied game today against Minnesota. He hit a batter and allowed a walk-off single after a sacrifice bunt. Soto has been prone to bouts of wildness throughout his career, making him an imperfect fit for the ninth. Finnegan, who is making $5.1MM, has been a much more consistent strike-thrower.

Thomas and Finnegan may be obvious fits for the Phillies’ needs, but they’re surely two of many players the front office is considering. Acquiring either player (or both, in a package deal) could be complicated by the difficulty of trading within the division. Detroit’s Mark Canha, Oakland’s Brent Rooker and the Angels’ Kevin Pillar are among other righty-hitting outfielders who’d make sense as speculative targets. (USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tied the Phils to Rooker earlier this month.) There are no shortage of relievers who’ll move in the next few days, with Miami’s Tanner Scott and the Halos’ Carlos Estévez clear candidates as rental closers on bad teams.

One area which is evidently not a priority: the rotation. Gelb writes that the Phils are not emphasizing the starting staff and remain reluctant to part with their top prospects. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted yesterday that the Phils were discussing Garrett Crochet and Jack Flaherty. Philadelphia already has a strong starting five, so it’d be very surprising to see them beat offers by other teams that much more desperately need rotation help for those top-of-the-market starters.

AL Central Notes: Crochet, Jones, Allen, Meadows, Flaherty

By Mark Polishuk | July 7, 2024 at 4:45pm CDT

Since half the league has reportedly shown interest in White Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet, it isn’t surprising that a contender like the Yankees are on that list, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that the Bombers “very much like Crochet.” However, the Yankees still aren’t keen to part with top prospect Spencer Jones, who was known to be a chief White Sox target when Chicago and New York discussed a possible Dylan Cease trade last offseason before Cease was dealt to the Padres.

While Heyman isn’t sure if Jones is necessarily still a priority get for the White Sox, the 2022 first-rounder’s stock is likely still quite high despite only okay numbers at Double-A Somerset. After a very slow start to the season, Jones’ bat has started to cook over the last six weeks, bringing his season slash line to .241/.322/.408 over 320 plate appearances. Baseball America (73rd) and MLB Pipeline (74th) still have Jones within their top-75 prospect lists, and both outlets rank him behind only Jasson Dominguez as the top minor leaguer in the New York farm system.

Tigers Skipping Jack Flaherty’s Start Due To Back Discomfort

By Anthony Franco | July 3, 2024 at 12:04am CDT

The Tigers scratched Jack Flaherty from tomorrow’s scheduled start against the Twins. The right-hander remained in Los Angeles after his start against the Angels last Thursday to receive an injection to treat back soreness, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.

For the moment, it doesn’t seem the situation is concerning. Manager A.J. Hinch told the Detroit beat on Tuesday afternoon that the team remains confident he’ll avoid the injured list (relayed on X by Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic). McCosky reports that the Tigers are targeting next week’s home series against the Guardians for Flaherty to take the ball.

A team skipping a pitcher’s start to treat a minor back issue wouldn’t ordinarily be noteworthy. Yet Flaherty’s health is of utmost importance with less than a month before the trade deadline. Detroit lost on Tuesday to fall nine games below .500. They’re all but assured of going into deadline season as at least soft sellers. It stands to reason they’ll be reluctant to move players whom they have under control for multiple years. They should deal their most appealing impending free agents. Flaherty tops the list.

Detroit’s decision to sign Flaherty to a one-year, $14MM pillow contract was one of the best moves of the 2023-24 offseason. Despite a rocky outing in his most recent appearance, he carries a 3.24 ERA over 15 starts. Flaherty has punched out 33% of batters faced behind an excellent 14.2% swinging strike rate. He has walked a career-low 4% of opposing hitters. He should get his first All-Star nod this summer.

Assuming he’s healthy, Flaherty figures to find himself in plenty of trade rumors coming out of the Midsummer Classic. He’ll almost certainly be the best rental starting pitcher on the market. MLBTR slotted Flaherty as the #3 pitcher on our ranking of the upcoming free agent class last week. The players above him, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, aren’t getting traded.

Beyond Flaherty, the rental rotation market could include the likes of Yusei Kikuchi, Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana and Frankie Montas. As the best impending free agent starter available, Flaherty could net the Tigers a prospect package headlined by a borderline Top 100 caliber talent. If they don’t trade him, Detroit could make him a qualifying offer at the end of the season. Assuming Flaherty signed elsewhere for at least $50MM, the Tigers would get a pick after the first round in the 2025 draft. Detroit should nevertheless find a prospect package within the next few weeks that they consider more valuable than the draft choice.

Keider Montero will get the ball tomorrow in Flaherty’s absence. As first reported by Jason Beck of MLB.com (on X), Detroit is recalling the rookie righty less than a week after optioning him. That’s only permissible if Montero is replacing a player on the roster who is headed to the injured list. That won’t be Flaherty but right-hander Casey Mize, who is ticketed for the 15-day IL after suffering a left hamstring strain in his start on Sunday. The former first overall pick owns a 4.23 ERA despite a modest 16.8% strikeout rate over 16 starts in his return from Tommy John surgery.

Tigers Notes: Flaherty, Brieske, Baez

By Nick Deeds | June 29, 2024 at 10:33pm CDT

The Tigers’ signing of right-hander Jack Flaherty has proved to be one of the best moves of the 2023-24 offseason through the first half of play this year. The 28-year-old has looked nothing short of fantastic since signing with Detroit on a one-year deal over the offseason. In 89 innings of work across 15 starts, Flaherty has posted a solid 3.24 ERA (129 ERA+) with a 3.04 FIP.

That’s a quality performance that virtually any club would like to have at the front to middle of their rotation, but his underlying metrics have been even more elite. Flaherty has struck out an eye-popping 33% of batters faced while walking just 4% this year, giving him the league’s second-highest K-BB% behind only White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet. While home runs- which have been an issue that has plagued Flaherty throughout his career- have remained an issue as 18.3% of his fly balls have left the yard this year, the right-hander has also generated grounders at a full-season career best clip of 44.2%. All of that has combined to give Flaherty an MLB-best xFIP of 2.29 and a SIERA of 2.45 that trails only Crochet.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, they aren’t particularly well-positioned to make the most out of Flaherty’s time in the organization. While fans in Detroit are surely dreaming on the right-hander pairing with Tarik Skubal at the front of a playoff rotation, the Tigers are sitting at a record of just 37-45 headed into the second half. The AL Central division already appears more or less out of reach for the club as they’ve fallen 15.5 games behind the Guardians, and even an AL Wild Card berth would take a herculean climb up the standings as the club currently sits 7.5 games behind the Royals for the third Wild Card spot.

Between that reality and the fact that Flaherty would surely be the most attractive rental pitcher moved at the deadline if the Tigers were to deal him, it may seem like a forgone conclusion that the right-hander will be changing teams next month. That might not be the case, however, as Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reported earlier this week that president of baseball operations Scott Harris and his front office are preparing not just for a potential sell-off, but also for a hypothetical scenario where the Tigers look to add at the deadline.

While the club’s weak position in the standings makes that possibility appear extremely unlikely at first blush, McCosky notes that the club figures to have plenty of control over its own destiny between now and the trade deadline on July 30. Prior to that date, Detroit will square off against the Guardians ten times and the Twins six times. That could give Detroit plenty of opportunities to not only cut into their massive deficit in the AL Central, but also make up ground in the AL Wild Card race; Minnesota holds the second of three spots and currently sits eight games ahead of the Tigers in the standings.

Even as the Tigers have an interesting opportunity to play their way into contention over the final month before the deadline, however, it still appears more likely than not that Flaherty is pitching in another uniform when the calendar flips to August. If that comes to pass, the Tigers will need another arm to step into the rotation alongside Skubal, Reese Olson, Casey Mize, and Kenta Maeda. According to McCosky, that next man up was once thought to be right-hander Matt Manning, but the club’s first-round pick from the 2016 draft has struggled to a 6.00 ERA at the Triple-A level since last being optioned to the minors and has pitched to below-average numbers across five spot starts in the big leagues this year.

That, per McCosky, could lead the club to consider right-hander Beau Brieske for a rotation spot at some point. While the Tigers haven’t formally broached the possibility of swinging between the bullpen and the rotation with Brieske, the right-hander would reportedly be the top option for the role should the club decide to utilize a pitcher in that role. Looking at the righty’s work during his time with the club, it’s easy to see why that would be the case.

Brieske, 26, was a 27th-round pick by the Tigers in the 2019 draft but made it to the big leagues fairly quickly, starting 15 games in the majors during the 2022 season to roughly league average results. He’s been used almost exclusively out of the bullpen since then and has taken to the role particularly well this year as he’s posted a 2.35 ERA (180 ERA+) and a 2.24 FIP with a 24.4% strikeout rate in 13 multi-inning relief appearances totaling 23 innings of work. Those strong multi-inning performances have seen Brieske throw as many as 53 pitches in relief over three innings of work, making him a prime candidate to move into the rotation from a workload perspective.

In other Tigers news, Hinch told reporters (including McCosky) this evening that veteran shortstop Javier Baez, who has been shelved since early this month due to lumbar spine inflammation, is not only improving but has reached point of feeling “the best he’s felt with his back in some time.” Hinch noted that the Tigers are hoping to get the 31-year-old out on a rehab assignment next week with an eye toward a return prior to the All Star break, which begins on July 15. The veteran has struggled to a .183/.209/.247 slash line in 53 games with the Tigers this year, but despite that meager offensive contribution the Tigers still figure to look forward to his return because even that offense is still an improvement over the bat of Ryan Kreidler, who has replaced Baez in the lineup and is currently slashing just .148/.258/.148 in 13 games with the club while filling in for the veteran.

Tigers Notes: Baez, Kreidler, McKinstry, Flaherty

By Anthony Franco | June 11, 2024 at 6:24pm CDT

Javier Báez’s rough season continues, as the Tigers placed the veteran shortstop on the 10-day injured list before tonight’s game against the Nationals. The placement, which is retroactive to June 9, is due to lumbar spine inflammation. Ryan Kreidler is up from Triple-A Toledo to take the open active roster spot.

Báez told the Detroit beat that he was headed to Florida for additional testing (link via Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic). The Tigers haven’t provided a timeline for his return, though he’s expected to be out beyond the minimal stint. Báez has battled back discomfort dating to Spring Training, which could be a contributing factor to the worst performance of his career.

The two-time All-Star has only hit one home run over 196 plate appearances. He’s hitting .183/.209/.247 across 53 games. Among hitters with 150+ trips to the plate, only Mickey Moniak has a lower on-base percentage. Tim Anderson and Moniak are the only such hitters who have made less of a power impact. Báez has rated as a slightly below-average defender over 451 2/3 innings at shortstop. The overall production is well below replacement level.

Báez now carries a .223/.264/.344 slash line in 333 games since signing a six-year, $140MM free agent contract with Detroit. Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris downplayed the chances of moving on from Báez entirely in an appearance on MLB Network late last month. That won’t need to be a consideration while he’s on the injured list, but the Tigers clearly need much better production out of the position. Detroit is last in all three triple slash stats from their shortstops on the year.

For now, that task will fall on Kreidler and Zach McKinstry. Manager A.J. Hinch indicated that duo will split the shortstop reps while Báez is on the shelf. The lefty-hitting McKinstry and righty-swinging Kreidler will form something of a platoon, although Hinch indicated Kreidler won’t be completely shielded from right-handed pitching. With the Nats starting lefty Mitchell Parker this evening, Kreidler is in the lineup for his first MLB work of the season.

The UCLA product appeared in 37 big league contests between 2022-23. Kreidler didn’t hit much in that limited look, turning in a .165/.220/.209 slash over 102 plate appearances. He owns a .242/.362/.448 mark with a lofty 27.1% strikeout rate in parts of four seasons with Toledo. McKinstry has hit .225/.296/.341 in 624 MLB plate appearances since the Tigers acquired him from the Cubs just before the start of last season. He’s a career .219/.284/.365 hitter versus right-handed pitching.

While the Tigers are patching things together on the infield, they seem to have dodged a bullet in the rotation. Jack Flaherty exited last week’s start against the Rangers after experiencing back tightness. He hasn’t pitched since then but seems on track to avoid the injured list. As noted by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press, Flaherty received an injection yesterday and is lined up to take the ball during this weekend’s series against the Astros. Signed to a one-year pillow contract over the winter, Flaherty is pitching at an All-Star level. He owns a 3.22 ERA while striking out more than a third of his opponents over his first 12 starts.

Jack Flaherty’s Strong Start To A Hopeful Rebound Year

By Anthony Franco | May 3, 2024 at 5:55pm CDT

Jack Flaherty was one of the more interesting mid-level starting pitchers in last year’s free agent class. The righty was arguably the best pitcher in MLB in the second half of 2019, but he didn’t cement himself as an ace in the following few seasons. He struggled in nine starts during the shortened season. Oblique and shoulder injuries cost him good chunks of the 2021 and ’22 campaigns, respectively. Flaherty stayed healthy for his walk year but allowed nearly five earned runs per nine between the Cardinals and Orioles.

That left both his camp and interested teams with questions once he hit the market. Was Flaherty still an upside play who had a realistic chance to turn in top-of-the-rotation results? If he felt that way, would he be best served taking a one-year deal and retesting the market next year? At 28, Flaherty was one of the youngest free agents of note. He ultimately chose the one-year route, signing a $14MM guarantee with the Tigers that contained another $1MM in performance bonuses.

It’s far too early to definitively declare the move a success, but his first month in Detroit has gone better than expected. Flaherty’s even 4.00 earned run average through 36 innings isn’t especially noteworthy. Yet he leads the American League with 50 strikeouts and has only issued five walks. His 16.4% swinging strike percentage would easily be a career high. It’s nearly six points up from last season.

Among pitchers with 30+ innings, only Freddy Peralta has a higher strikeout rate than Flaherty’s 34%. Jared Jones is the only pitcher getting more whiffs on a per-pitch basis. Flaherty is coming off a career-high 14 strikeouts in Tuesday’s matchup against his old teammates with St. Louis.

There’s only so much a player can prove in a six-game sample, but Flaherty hasn’t missed bats at anything close to this level in five years. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder, we see that Flaherty hadn’t recorded more than 40 strikeouts in a six-game stretch at any point since his dazzling finish in 2019. While the ERA hasn’t caught up, Flaherty is dominating the strike zone in a way that he hasn’t for some time.

Flaherty’s stuff has ticked up slightly in the early going. His fastball is averaging 93.8 MPH, around half a mile per hour above where it sat in the previous two seasons. Perhaps more impactful has been the increased effectiveness of his breaking stuff. Flaherty’s best pitch, his slider, is missing bats at a high level after it waned in 2022-23. Opponents have come up empty half the time they’ve offered at his curveball. Flaherty is attacking hitters, particularly left-handers, with the breaking pitches a little more frequently than he has in previous seasons.

There’s a long way to go before he puts the questions about his 2021-23 performance behind him completely. As the season progresses, he’ll face tougher opposition than he has gotten thus far. Of his six starts, four have come against teams (the White Sox, A’s, Rays and Cardinals) that have been subpar offensively. Only his two starts against the Twins have been against a club with an above-average team batting line. While Minnesota has been solid overall, they’re a high-strikeout offense.

Yet if Flaherty stays healthy and continues to overpower opponents at anything close to this level, he’ll be in line for a much more lucrative free agent trip. He’ll play all of next season at 29, which is still atypically young for a free agent starter. He’d be a clear qualifying offer candidate (assuming the Tigers stay in the postseason mix and don’t trade him at the deadline), but he shouldn’t have much issue turning that down and landing a better multi-year pact.

Next winter’s class has a lot of high-variance but intriguing starters who could dramatically improve their stock in the next five months (i.e. Luis Severino, Walker Buehler, Frankie Montas, Blake Snell). Flaherty has a legitimate path to the top of that group, which could make him the #3 pitcher available behind Corbin Burnes and Max Fried.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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