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Latest Details On MLBPA Leadership

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It was reported last week that there was something of a split in the MLB Players Association, with one contingent looking to replace deputy director Bruce Meyer with 33-year-old Harry Marino. Those efforts seem to be losing momentum, with Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic providing a rundown of the latest developments, which seem to point towards executive director Tony Clark and Meyer surviving in their current positions.

Clark released a statement from the eight-player subcommittee which stated: ““We still have issues to discuss, but one thing clear among the MLB executive subcommittee members is that this is no longer a Harry Marino discussion, in any respect.”

Clark also released his own statement on the matter: “For decades, the bedrock of the MLBPA has been an engaged membership that does not bend to outside agendas. It therefore comes as no surprise that a coordinated and covert effort to challenge this foundation has troubled players at all levels of professional baseball. These concerns are being discussed where they should be, in clubhouses around the league. In due time, they will be resolved consistent with the traditions of this great organization.”

Marino also released a statement, expressing displeasure with the way things have proceeded. “It has been shocking and disappointing to hear that several major-league and minor-league players are being threatened, bullied, and retaliated against for having come forward with their honest opinions,” Marino wrote. “It is important to remember that federal law protects every union member’s right ‘to express any views, arguments, or opinions’ and ‘to meet and assemble freely with other members.’ Players should never apologize for exercising these rights.” Marino didn’t provide specifics of these accusations but former player Josh Thole named director of player services Kevin Slowey. “I have received a number of calls from minor-league player reps this week saying that Kevin Slowey called them to bully and intimidate them into changing their opinions on their union’s current direction,” Thole said in a statement.

It has obviously been a frustrating offseason for the players, with the market having greatly underperformed expectations. At the top of the market, players like Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman were predicted for nine-figure deals at the start of the winter but each remained unsigned into the start of Spring Training and eventually pivoted to a short-term, opt-out laden deal. Lower on the market, players like Gio Urshela, Amed Rosario, Adam Duvall and many others settled for contracts barely above the league minimum salary.

This frustration seems to have boiled over in the form of this discord within the union. Marino previously suggested players sought him out while looking to make a change, though no such change has happened. As the executive director, Clark has say over hiring and firing decisions and did now bow to pressure to move on from Meyer during a call with Marino and several players last week. A 72-person executive board, which includes the eight-person subcommittee, has the power to vote out Clark but it doesn’t seem like anything of that nature is being considered. In November of 2022, the MLBPA voted to extend Clark’s contract through 2027.

As pointed out by Drellich, the end of Marino’s statement seemed to suggest his efforts to push change are no longer on the table. “At this point, what will happen next remains to be seen,” Marino said. “How hard the players are willing to fight for the changes they want is a decision for the players. … I will never turn down a request for assistance from any group of major-league or minor-league players. My sole aim is to serve the players and I will continue to make myself available to do so in whatever way I am asked.”

Marino had previously been the head of Advocates For Minor Leaguers, the group that unionized minor leaguers. Those minor leaguers were folded into the MLBPA, with Marino and Meyer then negotiating the first ever collective bargaining agreement for minor leaguers. It was recently reported that the involvement of minors leaguers has now led to them holding 34 of the 72 seats on the executive board. Marino and Meyer reportedly did not get along during the negotiation process and Marino then left the union. As Drellich points out, both Marino and Thole worked for the union for less than a year in the 2022-23 period.

That the efforts to replace Meyer have fizzled out seems to align with statements from Jack Flaherty, who gave an interview to Rosenthal on the weekend. Flaherty is on the eight-person subcommittee was reportedly one of the Marino backers last week but he expressed remorse in the interview about how things played out, sharing his admiration for Clark in the process. “There was one phone call that went on that I put Tony in a bad position in, where Harry tried to push his way through,” Flaherty said. “He tried to pressure Tony, and Tony stood strong, said this is not going to happen. Tony has done nothing but stand strong in all of this. That was something I would love to take back. I never wanted Harry to be in Bruce’s position.”

Flaherty repeated that he was not trying to replace Meyer with Marino. “I said he’s not somebody to replace Bruce, but if you guys want to listen to him, we can continue this conversation. Things got way out of hand after that.” When asked if Meyer was going to be replaced, Flaherty said that he had “absolutely no idea” and conversations of that nature would “stay internal.” He added that “Bruce is somebody who has done a really good job as part of the union. He has helped us through the last CBA and through COVID and has done a really good job stabilizing everything and moving us in the right direction.” As for those internal discussions, he added that “Our job is to have these conversations with each other and eventually come to an agreement, which is where we are now, which is Harry is not a part of any type of conversation.”

Meyer, 62, was hired by the MLBPA in 2018, having previously worked for the player unions for the NFL, NBA and NHL in a career of over 30 years. Late last week, he released a statement defending his recent performance, which Drellich relayed at The Athletic. He spoke of the union navigating the COVID shutdown as well as the MLBPA negotiating the latest CBA throughout a lockdown of more than three months initiated by the league. He highlighted that the CBA featured increased minimum salaries, a bonus pool for pre-arbitration players, increases of the luxury tax thresholds, measures to disincentive both tanking and service time manipulation, and many other elements.

How the union proceeds after this tumultuous period remains to be seen. The current CBA expires December 1, 2026.

Scott Boras, Harry Marino Discuss MLBPA Dispute

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Recent reporting has painted a picture of a divided MLBPA, where some players are pushing for deputy director Bruce Meyer to be replaced by Harry Marino. One of the charges coming from the pro-Marino camp are that Meyer and executive director Tony Clark are too aligned with agent Scott Boras. Evan Drellich of The Athletic spoke to Boras and Marino while also reporting on various other factors of the feud.

“If you have great ideas, and you want those ideas to be promulgated in a manner that is beneficial to the union and the players they represent, you go to Tony Clark with your plan,” Boras said. “You discuss it with him first, and the many lawyers in the union. If you have issues with the union and you want to be involved with the union, you take your ideas to them. You do not take them publicly, you do not create this coup d’etat and create really a disruption inside the union. If your goal is to help players, it should never be done this way.”

Marino also provided comment: “The players who sought me out want a union that represents the will of the majority. Scott Boras is rich because he makes — or used to make — the richest players in the game richer. That he is running to the defense of Tony Clark and Bruce Meyer this morning is genuinely alarming.”

It’s understandable why there is frustration among the players right now, as the offseason has clearly not been kind to them. Many notable free agents remained unsigned into Spring Training and some are even languishing on the open market right now. Various teams are claiming to be at their respective spending limits, often due to uncertainty around TV revenue or competitive balance tax concerns.

Players like Jordan Montgomery, J.D. Martinez, Michael Lorenzen, Brandon Belt, Donovan Solano, Tommy Pham, Robbie Grossman and many others are currently unattached. In recent weeks, players like Michael A. Taylor, Adam Duvall, Tim Anderson, Gio Urshela, Amed Rosario, Randal Grichuk and others have signed for $5MM or less. Players like Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman were predicted for nine-figure deals at the start of the offseason but had to recently pivot to short-term, opt-out laden pacts.

On top of that, the players seem to have been rankled by the peculiar situation involving J.D. Davis and the Giants. He and the club went to an arbitration hearing, which he won, as the arbiters awarded him a $6.9MM salary for this year instead of the $6.5MM figure the club sought. Arbitration salaries are guaranteed if the sides avoid a hearing but not if they go to one. After the Giants signed Chapman and no longer needed Davis as their third baseman, they released him, only owing him 30 days’ termination pay of $1.11MM. He later signed with the Athletics for a $2.5MM guarantee and $1MM of incentives. Even if he unlocks all those bonuses, he’s still wind up losing more than $2MM by this series of events.

Casey Mize, the Tigers’ MLBPA player rep, spoke to Drellich about the various issues causing the upset. “I think if you went around the room and asked, I think everybody would give you a different answer,” Mize said. “Coming off the heels of this free agency is a pretty glaring one. But there’s tons of details. You could look at the J.D. Davis situation. You could look at free agency. I think you could look at the taxes of the CBT (competitive balance tax) stuff. So many guys are going to give you different answers, whether it’s service time or whatever. I don’t want to get into details of what frustrates me or what I heard last night, but in general, we’re just looking for ways to get better. Those are discussions we have all the time, and yeah, we had one last night.”

Drellich reports that this winter’s frustration has “banded together some agents and players” who have had past dissatisfaction with the union but without being spurred into action until now. The earlier reporting had suggested there was a “strained” relationship between Marino and Meyer, and Drellich depicts a split in the MLBPA between a Marino camp and a Meyer camp. The report adds that the fates of Clark and Meyer are tied, so that both would depart the MLBPA if Marino has enough support to be put into a leadership position. A scenario where Marino effectively replaces Meyer and works alongside Clark is seen as unlikely at this point.

Though it’s plain to see why the players may not be thrilled with the developments of this offseason, it’s surprising from a distance to see such animosity bubbling out into the public, as this isn’t the first time the players have faced difficulties with the economics of baseball. The executive director of the MLBPA has historically been a lawyer or labor leader, but Clark became the first former player to hold the position in 2013. The 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement, this first of his tenure, was widely panned for being a poor result for the players. Meyer was brought aboard in 2018 to help negotiate the next CBA, bringing with him his three decades of experience working with the player unions of the NBA, NHL and NFL.

It was generally perceived that the players made some gains with the current CBA that came out of the 2021-22 lockout. The minimum salary went up from $570K to $700K in 2022, and would continue to have annual increases, set to be $740K in the upcoming season. A pre-arbitration bonus pool was created to get more money to younger players. Salaries for arbitration-eligible players, which were previously not guaranteed for any of them, became guaranteed for those that avoided a hearing. A draft lottery was implemented with the hope of disincentivizing tanking.

The competitive balance tax lines also moved up noticeably, with the base threshold going from $210MM in 2021 to $230MM in 2022, further increasing annually with that threshold at $237MM this year. The other two thresholds holds moved up by comparable amounts. Though the current CBA did feature the addition of the fourth line, whereas there had previously only been three.

Harry Marino, meanwhile, led the effort to unionize minor leaguers. The MLBPA eventually became the collective bargaining arm of minor league players, which led to the first ever CBA for minor leaguers. Marino left the MLBPA after that, with Drellich reporting that his relationship with Meyer “soured significantly” during their time working together on that, but Marino appears to have resurfaced as the attempts to push out Meyer and/or Clark have gained momentum.

The exact nature of those disagreements isn’t clear but it seems that the frustrating offseason has brought them back to the surface and divided the players corps. It appears Marino and those in his camp are accusing Clark and Meyer of being too aligned with Boras. This is a charge that has arisen before, with Meyer calling it “absurd” back in 2021.

Drellich points out that Boras was upset when the players accepted the current CBA, believing they should have held out for more, particularly in terms of pushing the CBT. Though he also adds that many other players and agents viewed things from the opposite side. Based on the wording of Marino’s statement above, it appears his argument stems from the accusation that the union focuses too much on the “richest” players to the harm of others.

The MLBPA has an executive board that consists of 72 members and it was reported earlier today that 38 of those are major leaguers and 34 are minor leaguers. This report from Drellich specially mentions Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito and Ian Happ as players that are both on the board and also Marino supporters.

How Marino would do things differently to the Clark/Meyer leadership is unclear. Per Drellich, Marino’s supporters have been circulating a PowerPoint presentation consisting of eight slides. The full details of this aren’t clear but it apparently questions some of the MLBPA’s own spending decisions, in addition to the recent CBA negotiations.

Supporters of the Clark/Meyer camp, on the other hand, are pointing to track record. Meyer, as mentioned, has three decades of experience working with player unions in other sports. He has only been with the MLBPA since 2018 but has already gone toe-to-toe with MLB commissioner Rob Manfred and deputy commissioner Dan Halem, enduring a lockout that lasted more than three months and saw the players make some of the aforementioned gains. The Davis situation, though understandably frustrating, was possible with all arbitration-eligible players until this current CBA. While the new deal didn’t close that loop completely, it at least made arbitration salaries guaranteed for those who avoid a hearing. The CBT impacting league spending is also understandably annoying, but those thresholds moved up considerably with this CBA.

Marino, meanwhile, is just 33 years old and has far less on his résumé. Drellich relays that MLB found Meyer difficult to deal with and would be happy to see him go, something his defenders point to as a positive. As Drellich also points out, the league is naturally happy with any discord between the players as it will only help them in negotiating future CBAs.

Per today’s reporting, it seems the outcome is a binary, where the union will either stay the course with Clark/Meyer or make a significant pivot by going with a largely unknown quantity in Marino, a decision that could have ramifications for the players for years to come. The current CBA runs through the 2026 season.

Tigers Sign Jack Flaherty To One-Year Deal

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The Tigers announced that they have signed right-hander Jack Flaherty to a one-year, $14MM deal. He can also earn an extra $1MM in bonuses based on games started: $250K for 26 and 28 starts, then another $500K for 30. Flaherty is a client of CAA Sports.

Just 28 years old, Flaherty isn’t all that far removed from looking like one of the National League’s budding young aces. The former first-rounder was one of the sport’s top all-around prospects prior to making his big league debut, which came in 2017.

The following year saw the California native pitch to a sharp 3.34 earned run average through 151 big league innings, but Flaherty’s best work came, of all times, during the juiced-ball season in 2019. That year’s 2.75 ERA, 29.9% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 1.15 HR/9 would be strong marks in any season but were especially impressive during the highest run-scoring environment since the steroid era. Two teams broke MLB’s single-season home run record that year, and yet while many pitchers throughout the league posted career-worst marks, Flaherty shined at his absolute brightest.

Unfortunately for both Flaherty and the Cardinals, that brilliant start to his career didn’t hold up. Injuries, primarily shoulder issues, conspired to limit Flaherty to just 154 1/3 innings over the next three seasons combined. During that time, he worked with slightly lesser velocity (93.9 mph) than his 94.5 mph peak, and his walk and home-run rates trended in the wrong direction. Overall, he posted a 3.90 earned run average but was limited to 32 starts (and another three bullpen outings).

The 2023 season for Flaherty was split between the Cardinals and the Orioles, who acquired him in a trade deadline deal sending lefty Drew Rom and prospects Cesar Prieto and Zack Showalter from Baltimore back to St. Louis. It was a mixed bag of a season for the righty. On the one hand, Flaherty’s 27 starts and 144 1/3 innings clearly made for his healthiest season since that brilliant ’19 effort. On the other, his 4.99 ERA was a career-worst (outside of a 21-inning sample as a rookie in 2017). His 22.8% strikeout rate was about average, but Flaherty’s 10.6% walk rate was elevated and his 93.2 mph average heater was down even further.

Despite the poor 2023 showing, Flaherty drew interest from at least the Pirates, Royals and Tigers — though his market surely included other suitors. There’s good sense in taking a flier on Flaherty, given his age, former prospect pedigree and the heights he reached earlier in his career.

As we noted on our Top 50 Free Agent Rankings, while we predicted a three-year pact for the righty — presuming a team would extend a multi-year pact in hopes of acquiring a below-market bargain — a straight one-year pillow deal always figured to be on the table. With strong results this year Flaherty can return to the market as a 29-year-old in position for a much more lucrative deal. The downside, of course, is that with another lackluster performance, Flaherty could well hit the market with considerably less earning power and no interest on multi-year contracts. Despite that potential, he’ll bet on himself with the more traditional approach and hope to cash in a year from now.

Should things play out that way, it’ll be to the benefit of the Tigers, who’ll not only have the opportunity to help Flaherty return to something resembling his peak levels but — if things play out that way — extend a qualifying offer to the righty. There’s a long way to go before that scenario is in play, but Flaherty’s early-career performance shows that he clearly has the talent to merit that type of offer when he’s at his best.

Flaherty becomes the second free-agent addition to what will be a dramatically different Tigers rotation than the one we saw in 2023. Gone is veteran lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who opted out of the three years and $49MM on his contract and scored a four-year, $80MM deal with the NL champion D-backs. Flaherty and righty Kenta Maeda, fresh off an excellent finish to his ’23 campaign with the division-rival Twins, will take up the mantle of veteran rotation leaders for skipper AJ Hinch.

Not only will the Tigers have that newly signed pair of arms, they’ll also welcome 2018 No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize back into the fold after a season lost to Tommy John surgery. Standout lefty Tarik Skubal returns as the team’s top starter, and the quartet of Skubal, Flaherty, Maeda and Mize will be joined by some combination of Reese Olson, Matt Manning and Sawyer Gipson-Long. Olson, in particular, had a solid rookie campaign. Manning, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick and top prospect himself — one who’ll be looking for better luck in 2024. In astonishing fashion, Manning suffered a broken left foot on two different occasions, both upon being struck by a comeback liner (once in April and again in September).

With Flaherty’s $14MM salary added to the books, the Tigers’ payroll projection climbs north of $104MM. That’s still quite a ways down from last year’s $135MM Opening Day mark — due in no small part to Miguel Cabrera’s retirement — and nowhere close to the franchise-record $200MM mark. The Tigers will surely want to leave ample playing time for young, potential core pieces like Mize, Skubal, Manning, Olson, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter and prospects Colt Keith and Justyn-Henry Malloy. But there’s still enough payroll space for the team to make some further additions, perhaps in the bullpen or on the bench.

Trevor Plouffe of Jomboy first connected the two sides. Jeff Passan of ESPN first relayed the contract specifics.

Royals Have Had Discussions With Michael Wacha, Jack Flaherty

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The Royals’ wide-ranging search for rotation help has led to discussions with free agents Michael Wacha and Jack Flaherty, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Kansas City has also been linked to free agents Marcus Stroman, Lucas Giolito and Seth Lugo within the past week.

Royals general manager J.J. Picollo has said on multiple occasions this winter that he’s hoping to bolster his starting rotation, and he recently acknowledged that his club has at least $30MM to spend this offseason. The Royals aren’t likely to be serious players for top-of-the-market arms like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell, but the list of names to which they’ve already been tied suggests they’re quite active in the second and third tiers of the market for starting pitching help.

Both Wacha and Flaherty figure to be in the Royals’ price range, landing annual values that fall well shy of that rough $30MM annual rate. Wacha’s two-year, $32MM club option was bought out by the Padres at season’s end, but after posting consecutive seasons with 125-plus innings and ERAs of 3.32 and 3.22, he has a case for a three-year pact — albeit perhaps at a lesser rate than the $16MM which San Diego declined to pay (or pick up and attempt to trade him at).

Over the past two seasons, between the Red Sox and Padres, Wacha has posted a combined 3.27 ERA with a 21.3% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 37.7% ground-ball rate. Despite being more of a fly-ball pitcher, he’s allowed a manageable 1.14 homers per nine frames. His 88.1 mph average exit velocity and 35.4% hard-hit rate are both a bit lower than this past season’s leaguewide averages (89 mph, 39.2%), which helps to mitigate the impact of a below-average strikeout rate. Wacha has dramatically reduced his reliance on a four-seam fastball over the past two seasons. He’s steadily increased his usage of a sinker and changeup in that time, posting new career-high usage rates for each pitch in both 2022 and 2023.

The broader question with Wacha is one of durability. He’s been placed on the injured list nine times in his MLB career — five of them due to right shoulder issues. Wacha landed on the IL with a stress reaction in his shoulder back in 2014, and he’s since had shoulder-related IL trips in 2016, 2020, 2022 and 2023. He’s also missed time with one-off oblique, hamstring, knee and intercostal injuries. Most recently, he missed six weeks of the 2023 summer with shoulder inflammation. However, he also posted a 3.88 ERA in 48 2/3 innings after returning and closed out the year with consecutive seven-inning gems (two total runs allowed on nine hits and two walks with 13 strikeouts).

Turning to Wacha’s former Cardinals teammate, Flaherty isn’t that far removed from looking the part of a blossoming ace. A first-round pick and top prospect before his big league debut, the right-hander logged a 3.34 ERA through 151 innings during his first full MLB campaign back in 2018. He was even better in 2019, tossing a career-best 196 1/3 innings with a brilliant 2.75 earned run average, excellent 29.9% strikeout rate and lower-than-average 7.1% walk rate. Unfortunately, he battled shoulder troubles of his own while pitching just 154 1/3 innings combined from 2020-2022.

This past season, Flaherty split the year between the Cardinals and Orioles, enjoying his healthiest year since 2019 but also displaying rather pedestrian results. Flaherty’s 4.99 ERA stands as an obvious eyesore, and his 22.8% strikeout rate was more or less in line with the league average. His 10.6% walk rate was a good bit worse than average. His fastball, which averaged 94.5 mph in that brilliant 2019 season, sat at 93.2 mph in 2023.

It obviously wasn’t Flaherty’s best work, but even with the downturn in results and durability concerns, there’s reason to believe he could yet command a multi-year deal. Flaherty only turned 28 in October, and a team might view him as a prime-aged rebound candidate who could pitch near the top of a rotation in a best-case scenario. He’d be an upside play based more on his prior heights than his 2023 output, but even if things don’t pan out, a two- or three-year deal likely wouldn’t break the bank.

Recent three-year deals for pitchers in this tier have generally landed around $12-13MM per season (e.g. Anthony DeSclafani, Yusei Kikuchi, Zach Eflin). It’s similarly feasible that Flaherty might just prefer a one-year deal that’d allow him to return to market next winter — although he could also get there via an opt-out. There are various contractual forms he can and likely is considering, but he’s unlikely to be prohibitively expensive in any of those scenarios, given Picollo’s prior comments regarding the team’s payroll flexibility.

Kansas City’s rotation currently projects to include Cole Ragans, Brady Singer and veteran innings eater Jordan Lyles. Candidates for the final two spots include Daniel Lynch, Jonathan Heasley, Angel Zerpa, Alec Marsh and Max Castillo, among others, but the Royals are hoping to add at least one, if not two veteran arms to supplement the bunch.

Pirates Showing Interest In Jack Flaherty

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The Pirates are among the teams with some interest in free agent righty Jack Flaherty, reports Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat. The Bucs are interested in a short-term pact with their former division-rival, per Jones.

Interest on a short-term deal, of course, is contingent on how the remainder of the market views Flaherty. At 28 years of age, he’s the youngest starting pitcher with ample big league experience available this winter. However, Flaherty is also coming off a down season that saw him pitch to a 4.99 ERA in 144 1/3 innings between the Cardinals and the Orioles, who acquired him prior to the trade deadline.

Not long ago, Flaherty looked like a burgeoning ace. The former first-round pick and top prospect turned in a 3.34 ERA over 151 innings back in 2018, his first full big league season, and followed it up with even better numbers. At a time when most pitchers in the league were falling victim to what we now know was a juiced ball in 2019, Flaherty was delivering the best season of his still-young career: 196 1/3 innings, 2.75 ERA, 29.9% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate. Unfortunately for both him and the Cardinals, injuries (primarily shoulder troubles) limited him to 154 1/3 innings from 2020-22 combined. Last year marked a return to better health but also lesser results.

Flaherty figures to have multiple scenarios he could pursue. A straight one-year deal or perhaps a two- or three-year pact with an opt-out would allow him the opportunity to reenter free agency not far down the road — ideally on the heels of a better platform season. In the past, a straight one-year deal was often the norm for a player in this situation. Increasingly, however, we’ve seen free agents coax two-year deals out of teams, with the second season being a player option.

There’s also the possibility of pursuing a more conventional, longer-term deal that’d still allow Flaherty to return to market at a reasonably young age. In the past, we’ve seen some free agents around the same age (e.g. Phil Hughes, Tyler Chatwood) take three-year deals that provided some financial security while also affording an opportunity to get back to the market in time for another chance at a contract of note. A three-year deal for Flaherty would cover his age-28, age-29 and age-30 seasons. If the market bears it, that arrangement could effectively set Flaherty for life financially and still create the chance to hit the market in search of a more elusive five- or six-year commitment.

As for the specific fit with the Pirates — it’s a strong one, regardless of which type of contractual structure Flaherty prefers. While Pirates ownership might balk at a multi-year commitment of note, Pittsburgh is in dire need of rotation help. Mitch Keller is the only established starter on the roster now that righty Johan Oviedo will miss the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery. Flaherty would slot comfortably into the starting staff and do so knowing that he’d have a long leash regardless of how he starts the season. Other options on the Pittsburgh staff currently include Bailey Falter, Roansy Contreras, Quinn Priester and Luis Ortiz. This past season’s No. 1 overall pick, right-hander Paul Skenes, will likely debut at some point in 2024 as well.

With regard to the team’s payroll, the Pirates only have three players under contract for the 2024 season (Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, Ryan Borucki) and another four arbitration-eligible players (Keller, David Bednar, Connor Joe, JT Brubaker). Roster Resource projects just a $53MM payroll for the upcoming season. Even by the Buccos’ standards, that’s at the bottom of the scale. Pittsburgh opened the 2023 season at $73MM and operated under a franchise-record $100MM back in 2016. There ought to be plenty of room to add multiple starters — even if some money is perhaps earmarked for another reunion with Pirates icon Andrew McCutchen.

Whether Flaherty is a part of the solution or not, the Pirates simply need to bring in multiple arms this winter. Flaherty’s youth and track record (particularly that 2018-19 run) give him more upside than most free agents in the second and third tiers of free agency, but that might also make him a popular target and push the bidding beyond the comfort zone of the perennially low-spending Pirates.

MLBTR Podcast: Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco)

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss this year’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents! Specific areas of discussion were…

Check out our past episodes!

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

Orioles Shift Jack Flaherty To Bullpen

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The Orioles will at least temporarily be moving Jack Flaherty from the rotation to the bullpen, manager Brandon Hyde told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and other reporters.  “It’s a move for today right now,” Hyde stressed, but the skipper is “really interested” in seeing how Flaherty operates as a reliever, “whether it could be a length guy, maybe it could be a right-on-right guy.  We’re looking for that.  We’re looking for right-on-right guys.  I think it’s worth a shot to take a look.”

Baltimore been operating with a six-man rotation since John Means returned from the injured list last week, both as a way to ease Means back into action after his lengthy absence due to Tommy John surgery, and to give all of their starters some extra rest down the stretch.  The O’s are in a stretch of 17 games in 17 days without an offday until September 25, so the addition of Means gave everyone some respite during this busy portion of the schedule.  Of course, with the Orioles now bound for the postseason, the club also wants as many fresh arms as possible for what it hopes will be a deep playoff run.

Aside from just rotation usage, Flaherty’s role change is inevitably down to performance.  The right-hander has a 7.11 ERA over seven starts and 31 2/3 innings since he was acquired from the Cardinals at the trade deadline, falling well short of expectations after a solid performance over the first four months of the season.  On the plus side, Flaherty hasn’t been much of a detriment to a rotation that seems to be getting better as the year as progressed — even without much help from Flaherty or the struggling Kyle Gibson, Baltimore starters have combined for a 4.00 ERA since August 1, the ninth-best mark in baseball in that span.

Heading into October, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, and Dean Kremer look like clear favorites to start postseason games.  Means is still a wild card due to his lack of innings, but the former All-Star has looked pretty sharp in his two starts to date.  With all this in mind, Flaherty might have been ticketed for a bullpen role in the playoff anyway, so this new move gives him some chance to adjust to the new role.

In the bigger picture, Flaherty’s upcoming free agent case hasn’t been helped by his struggles with the O’s, and his market might take a further hit with a lack of starts altogether for the rest of the season.  However, Hyde said that Flaherty is open to working as a reliever, since “he’s a total team guy.  [I’m] really, really impressed with his professionalism.  Truly, he really just wants to help this team win somehow, and if he can do it in that way, we’ll see.”

Cardinals Notes: O’Neill, Yepez, Romero, Flaherty

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The Cardinals announced this morning that they have placed outfielder Tyler O’Neill on the 10-day injured list with a right foot sprain. First baseman Juan Yepez was recalled from Triple-A in the corresponding move. The sprain presumably brings O’Neill’s 2023 campaign to a close, given the limited time remaining on the regular season schedule.

Despite rampant speculation early in the season that the club could deal O’Neill following an incident back in April where he was benched by manager Oli Marmol for a perceived lack of hustle, no such trade materialized before the trade deadline on August 1. That could be thanks at least in part due to O’Neill’s difficult first half. The 28-year-old made it into just 29 games with the Cardinals prior to the All Star break thanks to a low back strain, slashing just .228/.283/.337 with a 34.3% strikeout rate in those first 99 trips to the plate this season.

While his season started off on a rough note, O’Neill has looked greatly improved at the plate in recent months. His .233/.329/.445 slash line in 167 plate appearances since returning from injury shortly after the All Star break is far more palatable than his early season numbers. His strikeout rate has plummeted to just 19.8% over that period, while his walk rate has ticked up to 12.6%, a considerable jump from the 7.1% rate he posted in the first half. With that improved discipline at the plate and the ability to play center field, O’Neill could be a valuable player to the Cardinals as he heads into his final year of team control in 2024, whether that be as a trade chip or as a piece of the club’s outfield next year.

With Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker presumably locked into every day playing time, O’Neill will have to fight for playing time with the likes of Yepez, Dylan Carlson, and Alec Burleson for playing time in the outfield and at DH, assuming trades aren’t made to clear the club’s outfield logjam. Thanks to O’Neill’s injury, Yepez will get his first extended opportunity this season to showcase his skills at the big league level. After a solid rookie campaign with the Cardinals where he batted .253/.296/.447 in 76 games, Yepez has made just 46 plate appearances in the majors this year, slashing a lackluster .214/.283/.381 in that limited playing time. That being said, Yepez has gotten on a heater at the Triple-A level in recent weeks with a .305/.356/.481 slash line over his past 45 games. If he can keep that sort of production up at the big league level in the final weeks of the season, Yepez could re-establish himself as a contender for more playing time in the majors headed into 2024.

More from St. Louis…

  • The Cardinals will be without left-hander JoJo Romero for longer than initially expected, as noted by MLB.com. Marmol told reporters yesterday that Romero, who went on the injured list earlier this month due to knee tendinitis, is “still working on strengthening his knee” and that the current plan is for him to throw another side session today before determining when he’ll return to action. Romero has taken on a high leverage role in the St. Louis bullpen in the weeks since the club moved on from closer Jordan Hicks at the trade deadline, and the 27-year-old lefty has thrived in his new role. In 17 innings of work (12 appearances) since recording his first save, Romero has posted a 3.18 ERA with a microscopic 0.79 FIP. That incredible figure is thanks to a whopping 35.8% strikeout rate against a minuscule 3% walk rate during that time frame.
  • St. Louis parted ways with right-hander Jack Flaherty at this year’s trade deadline, dealing him to the Orioles in a buzzer-beating deal that brought back a trio of youngsters. That deal coming to fruition was far from a guarantee, however. As reported by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal earlier this week, the Cardinals nearly came to an agreement with the Rays to send Flaherty to Tampa, though the deal collapsed in the medical review stage of the process. Since then, the Rays lost left-hander Shane McClanahan to Tommy John surgery, further weakening the club’s starting rotation. While it’s worth wondering if Tampa’s interest in the pending free agent could carry over into the offseason, it should be noted that Flaherty has struggled badly since joining the Orioles, with a 7.11 ERA in seven starts for Baltimore.

Orioles Acquire Jack Flaherty From Cardinals

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The Orioles have acquired right-hander Jack Flaherty from the Cardinals, per announcements from both clubs. Infielder César Prieto, left-hander Drew Rom and right-hander Zack Showalter are heading the other way.

Flaherty, 27, has seemed like a clear trade candidate for a while now. He’s an impending free agent on a Cardinals club that has struggled all year, currently sporting a record of 47-60 that has them 10 games out of a playoff spot. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak admitted about three weeks ago that the Cards would have to make moves aimed at improving their chances in 2024. With his impending free agency, Flaherty was one of the obvious pieces to go and recently received interest from clubs such as the Dodgers and Rays.

Not too long ago, Flaherty seemed to be a burgeoning ace in St. Louis. He tossed 151 innings over 28 starts in 2018, allowing 3.34 earned runs per nine innings. He followed that up with an even better showing in 2019, dropping his ERA to 2.75 in 196 1/3 over 33 starts. He struck out 29.9% of batters faced that year while walking just 7.1%, finishing fourth in the voting for National League Cy Young.

But it’s been a different story since then. He struggled in the shortened season by posting a 4.91 ERA in nine starts. The year after, he made multiple trips to the injured list, being sidelined by a left oblique issue and then a right shoulder strain and ultimately tossing 78 1/3 innings that year. Those shoulder issues lingered into 2022 and he was only able to throw 36 innings last year.

With all of those issues, he came into 2023 having only thrown 154 2/3 innings in the previous three years combined. That made him a fairly unknown quantity, but he has settled in somewhere in between his previous ace form and the more recent struggles. He’s stayed healthy all year, having taken the ball 20 times and logging 109 2/3 innings already, but with a 4.43 ERA that’s not terribly exciting. His 21.9% strikeout rate and 11.1% walk rate are both a few ticks worse than league averages, with his 44.6% ground ball rate only slightly better.

If one wanted to be more charitable, they could look to the fact that his results have gotten better over time, in a sense. He had a 6.29 ERA through the first week of May, thanks in part to a 10-run disaster against the Angels on May 4. Since then, he’s posted a much nicer 3.58 ERA over 75 1/3 innings. Any pitcher’s stats would look better if you removed their worst start, but with Flaherty’s limited workload in the previous three years, perhaps he was still getting into a groove.

The Orioles will seemingly be hoping that the charitable outlook on Flaherty is correct. They have shot up to the top of the American League with a 65-41 record, though mostly on the backs of their position players and bullpen. Their starting rotation has been an obvious weak point, with a collective 4.48 ERA that puts them 16th out of the 30 major league teams. They were connected to various starting pitchers from Justin Verlander, Michael Lorenzen and Shohei Ohtani but the deadline has now passed with Flaherty as their sole rotation upgrade.

The club recently optioned Tyler Wells, leaving them with a rotation of Kyle Gibson, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer and Kyle Bradish, with Flaherty added in. Bradish is the only one of that group with an ERA better than 4.40. They have shown they can win with this group, but it will be an interesting gambit come playoff time, when the front of a club’s rotation tends to become more important.

For the Cardinals, they have added many young players to their system this week by trading away Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Paul DeJong, Génesis Cabrera and Flaherty. In this deal, they will add three more players to their system.

Prieto, 24, broke into the Cuban National Series as a teenager before signing with the Orioles in January of 2022. He split last year between High-A and Double-A, hitting .273/.314/.404 for a wRC+ of 96. This year, he’s hit .349/.393/.475 between Double-A and Triple-A, leading to a 132 wRC+. He’s played all three of the infield positions to the left of first base this year. Baseball America recently ranked him the #14 prospect in the Orioles’ system with FanGraphs putting him at #26.

Rom, 23, has been starting in Triple-A this year with a 5.34 ERA over 86 innings. He’s struck out 25.1% of batters while walking 11.5% and getting grounders at a 47.7% clip. It’s possible his .391 batting average on balls in play is pushing some extra runs across the board, leading to his 4.21 FIP. BA ranked him the #16 prospect in Baltimore’s system with FanGraphs at #30. Showalter, 19, was just drafted in the 11th round last year and has been pitching in the lower levels of Baltimore’s system this year.

For the Cardinals, this trade and the others have allowed them to stockpile some young talent as they look to reload for 2024. For the Orioles, this is their first competitive season since Mike Elias became the general manager in November of 2018. The club has generally been cautious in free agency in that time, having not given out any multi-year deals to free agents. Now their first deadline in buyer position has seen them acquire two rental pitchers in Flaherty and Shintaro Fujinami.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the O’s were close to getting Flaherty. Francys Romero first had Prieto’s involvement. Jeff Passan of ESPN first had Rom while Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com added Showalter.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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