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Jacoby Ellsbury

Red Sox Links: Beckett, Ross, Cook, Crawford

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After tonight's 10-3 loss to the Yankees, the Red Sox have a 49-51 record through their first 100 games of the season. Time may be running out for the Sox to determine if they'll make a major acquisition at the trade deadline or if they'll decide to punt on the 2012 season.  Here's the latest from Fenway Park…

  • Josh Beckett said he hasn't been approached by the team about a trade, nor about waiving his 10-5 rights, reports WEEI.com's Rob Bradford.  Beckett said he would consider accepting a deal if approached since "if you’re not wanted somewhere, why stay there?" though GM Ben Cherington "assured me during Spring Training that he wants me here, so as far as I’m concerned, [rumors are] just made-up fodder.”  The right-hander stressed that he wanted to remain in Boston.
  • The Rangers are interested in Cody Ross and had scouts at Yankee Stadium on Friday, reports Danny Knobler of CBS Sports.  A source tells WEEI.com's Rob Bradford that the Red Sox have no plans to deal Ross despite "significant" interest from other teams.
  • While the Red Sox are themselves looking for pitching, WEEI.com's Alex Speier thinks the team could be well-served to get something out of "a short-term asset" like Aaron Cook.  Teams have had "modest interest" in Cook on the trade market, though Cook's rough start against the Yankees tonight can't help,
  • The Marlins are the only team to "officially inquire" about Carl Crawford, tweets Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
  • Cherington tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter links) that the team has no plans to trade Jacoby Ellsbury, as the Red Sox see Ellsbury as a key step to contending in 2013.
  • From earlier today, Cherington discussed Beckett, Ellsbury and other topics during a radio appearance on WEEI's Dennis & Callahan show.

Cherington On Beckett, Ellsbury, Deadline Moves

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Red Sox GM Ben Cherington appeared on WEEI's Dennis & Callahan radio show this morning to discuss his club, and WEEI.com's Jerry Spar has the partial transcript…

  • Cherington said he still believes his team is in playoff contention and can raise their level of play, though he admitted, "it's an unusual position for us to be in. That's the truth. Our approach at the deadline most every year that I've been here in the front office has been pretty clear. We're trying to improve the team. This deadline is going to take more of a nuanced approach, but we're certainly still focused on 2012 and doing everything we can to win as many games as we can this year."
  • The Red Sox are talking to other teams about starting pitching, though Cherington sounded doubtful given the "seller's market" for available top arms.
  • Josh Beckett has not been asked about waiving his 10-5 rights, nor have the Sox discussed dealing Beckett with another team.  "Taking Josh Beckett off this team is not necessarily improving things," Cherington said. "We need to add, we need to improve the rotation, if anything — improve internally or add to the rotation. I think we're sort of stuck in neutral if we start taking guys out of the rotation who are good major league pitchers."   
  • The team hasn't talked to Jacoby Ellsbury about a contract extension, echoing what Ellsbury's agent Scott Boras said last month.  Ellsbury will be a free agent after the 2013 season and it's hard to gauge what an extension for the center fielder would look like, given his injury-plagued 2010 and 2012 seasons sandwiched around a stellar 2011 campaign.  Cherington said other teams have inquired about Ellsbury though the Sox have no interest in trading him.
  • Cherington said it makes little sense to move struggling veterans as the Sox wouldn't be able to recoup proper value in a trade.  "The secondary point, the last thing a GM ever wants to do is sell low," Cherington said. "If we are ever going to consider trading a player, doing it at a time when a guy isn't performing doesn't help your cause."  Cherington admitted the Sox have made such sell-low trades before, possibly in reference to the Kevin Youkilis deal.

Heyman On Yankees, Garza, Upton, BoSox, Jays

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CBS Sports' Jon Heyman discussed how baseball reporting is evolving in the age of social media and a 24/7 news cycle (while giving MLB Trade Rumors a tip of the cap), joked about the infamous "mystery teams" that often dominate the rumor mill and also shared some hot stove chatter during his appearance on Jonah Keri's Grantland podcast.  Here are some of the highlights…

  • The Yankees have mostly stayed away from major trade deadline moves under Brian Cashman and Heyman suspects the team will largely stand pat this month.  There are no glaring needs on the roster plus the first-place Yankees will get a boost from Brett Gardner's return from the DL.
  • If the Yankees did make a move for pitching, Matt Garza would be at the top of their list.  The Red Sox and Blue Jays are also interested in Garza, not to mention the Dodgers and Tigers, among other clubs.
  • When the Diamondbacks toyed with putting Justin Upton on the trade market two years ago, they discussed a deal with the Red Sox that would have sent Upton to Boston in exchange for Jacoby Ellsbury and Daniel Bard.
  • The Red Sox and Blue Jays have the same record but the Sox are "more fully invested" in contending this season, while Heyman thinks the Jays' pitching injuries may prevent from making a true push at the deadline.
  • Heyman thinks Zack Greinke is a "longshot" to re-sign with the Brewers but the club will at least make him a long-term offer before exploring possible trades before the deadline.  The Angels and Braves are two of the teams expected to be in on Greinke should Milwaukee make him available.
  • Surprise contenders like the Mets, Orioles and Pirates will look to upgrade themselves for a pennant race, though Heyman thinks these teams are "probably all realistic about their chances" and won't sacrifice their rebuilding process by trading any of their blue chip prospects.  The Mets are looking for a veteran bullpen arm, the Orioles a veteran starter and the Pirates a corner outfielder, such as Carlos Quentin or Josh Willingham if the Twins were to make him available.
  • Beyond Greinke, Josh Hamilton, Cole Hamels and a few other notables like Michael Bourn or Melky Cabrera, Heyman feels this year's free agent crop is "not a star-studded class."  The free agent market has been dimmed by the preponderance of teams who lock their young stars up to multiyear contracts early in their careers.

No Extension Talks For Jacoby Ellsbury

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The Red Sox have been without reigning AL MVP runner-up Jacoby Ellsbury for most of the year due to a shoulder injury, part of the reason why they've had to use a dozen different outfielders. Today, agent Scott Boras told reporters (including WEEI.com's Rob Bradford) that there have been no discussions with the team about a long-term extension.

"We've only had the traditional discussions of one-year contracts," said Boras. "(GM Ben Cherington) and I will certainly begin contract discussions at year's end because we have to. We have at minimum a one-year contract to discuss. We're going to play through the season. Ben's operating his team and I'm signing draft picks, operating my team."

Boras went on to explain that Matt Kemp's eight-year, $160MM contract extension with the Dodgers isn't a fair reference point for a potential Ellsbury deal. 

"The Matt Kemp contract is not a free agent contract," said Boras. "It's not a barometer that has a great deal of relevance other than it's what players get who are not free agents and are really talented. So when you look at the free agent markets and you look at those types of contracts you can understand there is always a big disparity between a free agent contract and a contract that is signed before the player is a free agent."

Ellsbury will earn $8.05MM this season and remains under team control as an arbitration-eligible player next year. He can become a free agent after 2013. During the offseason, Ellsbury indicated a willingness to sign a long-term deal with the Red Sox but said he will leave negotiations up to Boras. MLBTR's Mark Polishuk suggested that a seven-year deal worth roughly $130MM could work for both sides, though that was predicated on another MVP-caliber season. The shoulder injury throws a wrench into that.

Extension Candidate: Jacoby Ellsbury

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Icon_13052718There was some talk out of Boston about the Red Sox exploring a multiyear deal with Jacoby Ellsbury this offseason, though it's perhaps no surprise the club decided to handle its front-office shakeup and more immediate player concerns before trying to lock up a player who is still under team control through 2013.  There is likely also a sense of wanting to see exactly they really have in Ellsbury before committing to a major contract.

Last season, Ellsbury didn't only bounce back from an injury-riddled 2010, he dramatically raised his own performance ceiling.  Ellsbury finished second in AL MVP voting after slugging 32 homers and hitting .321/.376/.552 in a league-best 732 plate appearances, just to erase any doubts about his durability.  All three totals in his slash line were career highs but the power was particularly surprising — Ellsbury had hit just 30 homers in his entire major and minor league career (2705 plate appearances) before 2011.  To top it off, Elsbury also provided excellent center field defense (a 15.7 UZR/150 and a Gold Glove) and stole 39 bases.

The Red Sox avoided arbitration with Ellsbury by agreeing to an $8.05MM deal for 2012, a significant bump up from his $2.4MM 2011 salary.  If Ellsbury comes even close to repeating his performance from last season, he'll earn another big raise for his last arbitration year; MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith projected as much as a $13MM salary for Ellsbury in 2013.

For our long-term price range, let's look at the contracts received by Matt Kemp and Ellsbury's teammate Carl Crawford over the last two offseasons.  Kemp was also heading into his last arbitration year when he signed an eight-year, $160MM extension with the Dodgers in November.  Crawford, meanwhile, was 29 (Ellsbury hits that age in September) when he signed his seven-year, $142MM free agent deal with the Red Sox on the open market.

Hard as it would've been to believe 12 months ago, power is the key statistic in determining the size of Ellsbury's extension.  If he puts up another 30-homer season, agent Scott Boras will argue that Ellsbury is now a proven five-tool threat and deserves a Kemp-like contract.  If Ellsbury's homer total drops even to around 20 dingers, the Red Sox will have an argument for a slightly lesser but still-sizeable contract akin to Crawford's deal. 

Of the five 2012 projections used by Fangraphs, all have Ellsbury's OPS dropping significantly next season, with three of five forecasting a drop of more than 100 OPS points.  It's worth noting that Ellsbury's center field defense is also not quite a proven commodity.  He posted a -10.0 UZR/150 playing the position in 2009, leading to the Red Sox signing Mike Cameron that offseason to take over in center.

Presuming Ellsbury, like most players, doesn't want to talk contract once the season begins, Boston has a month to work out an extension while they still have some leverage over the length of the deal.  Right now, the Red Sox could aim for a six-year extension that covers Ellsbury's last arbitration year and his first five free agent seasons.  This would cover Ellsbury through his age-34 season, sparing the club at least one year of paying $20MM to a player in his mid-thirties (though the Sox could add a club option).  Of course, as noted earlier, if Ellsbury's power surge continues into the start of the 2012 campaign, the leverage swings back in his direction and Boras will look for a minimum of seven years in any new contract.  

Boras usually advises his clients to test the free agent market, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see the 2012-13 offseason also pass without a multiyear deal between Ellsbury and the Red Sox.  Two high-profile Boras clients have recently signed extensions prior to free agency — Carlos Gonzalez's seven-year, $80MM deal with the Rockies and Jered Weaver's five-year, $85MM deal with the Angels — but neither of those contracts matches Ellsbury's situation.  Gonzalez was still four years away from free agency and Weaver specifically wanted to stay in Anaheim, even at the cost of leaving millions on the table in free agency.

Though Boston has been conscious of exceeding the luxury tax limit on payroll this winter, the team obviously has the money to pay Ellsbury fair value if they want to make him part of their long-term future.  A lot depends on what Ellsbury does at the plate in 2012, but a seven-year, $133MM deal ($13MM in 2013 to match his arbitration number and then an average of $20MM in each of the following six years) is definitely within reach.  Ellsbury would join Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez as Red Sox players locked up through at least 2017.  With Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia and Clay Buchholz all on reasonable contracts that include equally reasonable team options, Boston's long-term payroll is relatively flexible for such a big-market franchise. 

Photo courtesy of Tony Ding/Icon SMI

Extension Notes: Wright, Ellsbury, Swisher

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Ryan Zimmerman's six-year, $100MM extension earlier today isn't the only contract extension (or lack thereof) being talked about in the baseball world…

  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson said he'd love to keep David Wright in the fold and called him a "special player," writes Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. Martino's sources said the Amazin's would like to see Wright produce in 2012 to make an extension "palatable." An executive told Martino it'd take "four Zack Wheelers" for the Mets to move Wright, which makes an extension sound preferable to a trade (in my opinion). Both sides agree that Zimmerman's extension won't be a factor in contract discussions.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury is open to discussing a long-term deal to keep him in a Red Sox uniform beyond 2013, writes WEEI.com's Alex Speier. Ellsbury said he leaves negotiations up to his agent, Scott Boras, but that he loves the city of Boston and its fans.
  • Nick Swisher recognizes that the Yankees rarely negotiate additional years on top of existing contracts, and anticipates filing for free agency, according to Wallace Matthews of ESPN. Swisher said it's "not his style" to ask agent Dan Lozano to approach New York about a long-term deal. He also said New York is where he ultimately wants to be.
  • In case you missed it, the Reds are nearing an extension with setup man Sean Marshall and Josh Hamilton expects to reach free agency.

AL East Links: Red Sox, Ellsbury, Crawford, Niemann

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Let's round up the latest from the AL East…

  • Red Sox GM Ben Cherington said there was nothing new to report as far as their pursuit of pitching, reports Scott Lauber of The Boston Herald (on Twitter).
  • The Red Sox avoided arbitration with Jacoby Ellsbury by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $8.05MM today, and WEEI.com's Rob Bradford says that Cherington confirmed the two sides did not discuss a multiyear contract.
  • Cherington confirmed that Red Sox outfielder Carl Crawford underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left wrist and may not be ready for Opening Day, reports Bradford.
  • Rays executive VP of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times that being unable to avoid arbitration with Jeff Niemann is "definitely a sub-optimal outcome." (Twitter link)
  • Rays owner Stuart Sternberg met with St. Petersburg mayor Bill Foster for two hours today to discuss the future of baseball in the city, reports The Tampa Bay Times. The team asked the city to allow them to speak to Hillsborough officials about a new stadium in the county.

Red Sox Avoid Arbitration With Jacoby Ellsbury

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The Red Sox avoided arbitration with center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury on a deal worth $8.05MM, tweets MLBTR's Ben-Nicholson-Smith.  MLBTR projected a $7.9MM salary for Ellsbury, who finished second in the AL MVP voting.  The Red Sox still have multiple arbitration cases to settle.

Some say Ellsbury's salary is a record for a second-time arbitration eligible player, but Miguel Cabrera received $11.3MM in 2007 a few months before agreeing to a multiyear deal (in which his '07 salary remained unchanged).

Cafardo’s Latest: Zumaya, Carlos Lee, Oswalt

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At least three teams are "pushing hard" for Joel Zumaya, says Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. According to Cafardo, 50 scouts from 20 teams were in attendance for Zumaya's December workout, and the Red Sox and Padres are among the clubs who are very interested in the right-hander. Here are a few more items of interest from Cafardo's Sunday Baseball Notes:

  • An Astros source confirmed to Cafardo that the club has received a few inquires on Carlos Lee, as we heard earlier this week. The Rays briefly discussed a deal, but even half of Lee's $18.5MM salary figures to be too pricey for Tampa Bay.
  • A long-term extension doesn't look likely for Jacoby Ellsbury this week, but he and the Red Sox should avoid arbitration on a one-year deal before Tuesday's deadline.
  • Based on Hiroki Kuroda's deal with the Yankees, an NL GM thinks Roy Oswalt could be had for about $9MM for one year. There were rumblings this week suggesting Oswalt's current asking price may be even lower.
  • An NL scout on Edwin Jackson and his likely cost: "For that kind of money, you need more consistency out of him. I guess there's a lack of trust in that consistency. He's a great athlete, but he doesn't have a great feel for pitching. To me, he's still a complementary piece."
  • Ryan Spilborghs and Chad Qualls are two free agents to keep in mind for the Red Sox, says Cafardo. The Sox have "always liked" Spilborghs, who was non-tendered by the Rockies last month, and Qualls "has been on Boston's radar all offseason."

Quick Hits: Clippard, Storen, Ellsbury, Braves

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B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and Casey Kotchman all homered for the Rays tonight as Tampa Bay defeated Boston, 9-2, in the opener of a big four-game series.  The Red Sox now have just a three-game lead over the Rays (and a four-game lead over the idle Angels) for the AL Wild Card.

Some notes from around the league….

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