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AL East Notes: Bruce, Jays, Sox, Darvish, JDM, Hosmer, O’s

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Some rumblings from around the AL East…

  • The Blue Jays “were after” Jay Bruce during the season and are likely to pursue the outfielder in free agency, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports.  Bruce reportedly didn’t draw much trade interest prior to the July deadline, though the Mets were able to deal the slugger to Cleveland in August.  It should be noted that the Jays were one of eight teams on Bruce’s no-trade list, so it could be that Bruce nixed the idea of moving to a team that was only on the outskirts of the AL wild card chase and never reached the .500 mark all season.  The Jays’ inclusion on Bruce’s list also doesn’t necessarily mean he wouldn’t consider them as a free agent destination — given the Blue Jays’ past interest in his services, Bruce could have been trying to leverage some extra financial incentive in the event of another trade offer.  MLBTR’s top 50 free agents list predicted a match between Bruce and the Jays, as Toronto is sorely in need of a right fielder and a big left-handed bat.
  • The Red Sox asked the Rangers about Yu Darvish prior to the trade deadline, Evan Drellich of NBCSports.com reports.  It seems like this was mostly a cursory check-in, as talks fizzled since the Sox weren’t interested in moving a Major League player and the Rangers weren’t too interested in Boston’s prospects.  It could be argued that the Sox have enough injury uncertainty in their pitching staff to require adding another veteran arm this winter, though Darvish doesn’t seem like a fit in free agency due to his big price tag and Boston’s more pressing need for offensive help.
  • Speaking of that search for bats, both J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer are expected to draw attention from the Red Sox this winter, though “multiple evaluators around the game” tell the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier that Martinez will be the bigger priority of the two.  Martinez has the more consistent track record of production, he won’t cost a draft pick in compensation (as Hosmer will have a qualifying offer attached) and he hits left-handed pitching better than Hosmer does, plus Hosmer’s excellent 2017 numbers may have been boosted by the good fortune of a .351 BABIP.  As Speier notes, however, the Red Sox could also aim lower and address several needs with the money required to sign Martinez or Hosmer.
  • Lorenzo Cain would be an upgrade for the Orioles but the club isn’t likely to pursue the outfielder in free agency, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes.  Baltimore is going to focus on pitching this winter, and the team will be looking at left-handed hitters when it comes to addressing its lineup needs.

Quick Hits: Callaway, Tribe, Santana, Yankees, Long

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It was just under a decade ago that Mickey Callaway agreed to become the interim head coach for Texas A&M International University, which sparked his interest in teaching and training young players.  Though Callaway pitched in Taiwan and in independent baseball in 2008, that was his final season as a player, as Callaway tells Newsday’s Marc Carig that “It was hard to concentrate on playing after feeling that I was ready to start coaching.”  Carig’s profile of Callaway’s first time running a team is well worth a read, providing insight into the man who has become a big league manager for the first time after being hired by the Mets.

As we enjoy a wild Game Five of the World Series, here’s more from around baseball….

  • The Indians seem prepared to spend in the short-term to keep their window of contention open, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer opines during his look at the some of the Tribe’s free agents this winter.  Pluto figures Carlos Santana will be issued a qualifying offer, and the team will monitor the markets of Santana and Jay Bruce to see if either could be re-signed for a reasonable amount, a la how several other veteran sluggers received smaller-than-expected deals last winter (which allowed the Tribe to sign Edwin Encarnacion).  As for other decisions, Pluto thinks Bryan Shaw and Boone Logan will both be pitching elsewhere in 2018, while Joe Smith seems the likeliest of the relievers to return to Cleveland.  Josh Tomlin’s $3MM club option seems like a good bet to be exercised by the team.
  • Also from Pluto, newly-hired pitching coach Carl Willis said two other teams had made him job offers and two others showed interest in his services.  With this kind of interest, the Indians had to jump to sign the veteran pitching coach just a few days after ex-pitching coach Mickey Callaway left for the Mets.
  • Mets hitting coach Kevin Long has been mentioned as a candidate for the Yankees’ managerial job, though he may also be a contender to be the Yankees’ next hitting coach, George A. King III of the New York Post writes.  Long previously served as the Bronx Bombers’ hitting coach from 2007-14 before moving over to his post across town with the Mets.  Alan Cockrell has been the Yankees’ hitting coach for the last two years, though with a new manager coming, there are likely to be changes made to the Yankees’ coaching staff.

Sorting The Skills Of The Best Free Agent Corner Outfielders

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Last night, I sorted the skills of the best free agent first basemen. While there are always a large number of free agent corner outfielders, this year there are three that stand high above the rest. Justin Upton (who can opt out of the remaining 4 years and $88MM on his current deal), J.D. Martinez and Jay Bruce all had great 2017 seasons, and all three are 30 years of age.

But the similarities don’t stop there. Each of those three corner outfielders smacked at least 35 homers while driving it at least 100 runs in 2017. All three were traded mid-season, making them ineligible for qualifying offers (though Upton wouldn’t have been able to receive one under the new CBA anyway, since he’s been issued a QO in a past season). All have averaged at least 550 plate appearances per season for the past three years. They even share the same first initial.

So what makes these three players different? Let’s start by taking a quick look at their fWAR.

One-Year Sample (2017)

  1. Upton – 5.0
  2. Martinez – 3.8
  3. Bruce – 2.7

Three-Year Sample (2015-2017)

  1. Martinez – 10.5
  2. Upton – 9.9
  3. Bruce – 3.7

Upton seems to have had the best overall 2017 season, while Martinez has been more valuable over the larger sample size. But each of these outfielders provide their value to prospective ballclubs in different ways. Here’s a breakdown of their skill sets.

Power

Isolated Power (ISO):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – .367
  2. Upton – .268
  3. Bruce – .254

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – .284
  2. Bruce – .239
  3. Upton – .230

Extra Base Hits Per Plate 100 Plate Appearances:

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 15.13
  2. Upton – 12.44
  3. Bruce – 10.85

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 12.39
  2. Bruce – 10.67
  3. Upton – 10.37

It’s no surprise that Martinez leads the way in the power department. Despite missing over a month of the 2017 season with an injury, he still managed to lead the group with 45 homers between the Tigers and Diamondbacks. Ever since his breakout year with the Tigers, he’s been a home run monster. While Upton was better in 2017, Bruce has an advantage over him when a three-year sample is taken into account, probably in part due to Upton’s poor start to 2016. Power is certainly not a weakness for any of these players, but Martinez is the runaway favorite in the pop department.

Plate Discipline

Strikeout Rate (K%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 22.5%
  2. Martinez – 26.2%
  3. Upton – 28.3%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 22.1%
  2. Martinez – 26.1%
  3. Upton – 27.5%

Walk Rate (BB%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 11.7%
  2. Martinez – 10.8%
  3. Bruce – 9.2%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 10.2%
  2. Martinez – 9.3%
  3. Bruce – 8.6%

Chase Rate on Pitches Outside the Strike Zone (O-Swing %):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 26.9%
  2. Bruce – 31.3%
  3. Martinez – 32.1%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 25.7%
  2. Bruce – 32.0%
  3. Martinez – 33.8%

All three of these players have been pretty consistent in their plate discipline skills across the past three seasons. While Upton seems to have a lot of swing and miss in his game, he chases a much lower percentage of bad pitches than do the others. He also draws more walks. We can probably say with some certainty that Martinez has the worst plate discipline of the group.

Contact Ability

Contact Rate (Contact %):

One-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 73.9%
  2. Upton – 71.7%
  3. Martinez – 71.2%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 75.8%
  2. Martinez – 72.0%
  3. Upton – 71.2%

Bruce would appear to have the best ability to make contact. It’s interesting to see that his contact rate is down so significantly from years past; hopefully this is not a sign of decline but rather a sign of change in approach. Martinez and Upton are close enough that we can basically consider this category a toss-up between those two.

Quality of Contact

Barrels Per 100 Plate Appearances:

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 12.3
  2. Upton – 7.9
  3. Bruce – 7.1

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 10.9
  2. Upton – 7.4
  3. Bruce – 6.4

Hard Contact Rate (Hard%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 49.0%
  2. Upton – 41.0%
  3. Bruce – 40.3%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 44.0%
  2. Upton – 38.1%
  3. Bruce – 37.9%

Average Exit Velocity, MPH (AEV):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 90.8
  2. Upton – 88.8
  3. Bruce – 88.3

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 91.2
  2. Upton – 90.1
  3. Bruce – 89.0

The numbers are completely consistent across categories and sample sizes; Martinez makes the highest-quality contact by a wide margin, with Upton being just a bit better than Bruce in each of these categories. It’s worth mentioning that Martinez’ 12.3 barrels per hundred plate appearances ranked second in all of baseball this year, behind only the Yankees’ Aaron Judge (12.8).

Offensive Versatility

wRC+ vs. Weak Platoon Side:

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 147
  2. Upton – 131
  3. Bruce – 88

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 141
  2. Upton – 120
  3. Bruce – 82

Pull Rate (Pull%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 38.3%
  2. Upton – 38.6%
  3. Bruce – 44.4%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 40.9%
  2. Martinez – 40.1%
  3. Bruce – 45.3%

Bruce’s value really falls off here. Martinez and Upton are both worse against righties than lefties, but still right-handers for well-above-average results. Bruce, on the other hand, is a below-average hitter against southpaws. Furthermore, Bruce is far more vulnerable to shifts than his counterparts, consistently pulling the ball far more often. Count Bruce a loser in this arena.

Baserunning

Fangraphs Baserunning Rating (BsR):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 4.0
  2. Bruce – [-2.1]
  3. Martinez – [-5.7]

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 10.2
  2. Bruce – [-6.7]
  3. Martinez [-11.2]

Statcast Sprint Speed, Feet Per Second:

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 27.6
  2. Martinez – 26.8
  3. Bruce – 26.5

Upton really separates himself in this regard, providing positive baserunning value while reaching a peak sprint speed nearly a full mile per hour better than his competitors. It’s probably best to use the one-year sample size here, as players don’t often end up getting faster after age 30. Martinez’ baserunning value works against him, but speed doesn’t matter as much when you’re hitting 45 balls out of the park.

Fielding

Ultimate Zone Rating Runs Per 150 Innings (UZR/150):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 3.5
  2. Bruce – 2.4
  3. Martinez – [-14.8]

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – [-0.3]
  2. Bruce – [-4.0]
  3. Martinez – [-7.2]

Defensive Runs Saved (DRS):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 8
  2. Bruce – 5
  3. Martinez – [-5]

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 17
  2. Bruce – [-1]
  3. Martinez – [-23]

Here, we see yet another area where Upton distinguishes himself. Upton rates as a far superior option to both Bruce and Martinez over a three-year sample size. If we’re to believe Bruce has genuinely made improvements to his glovework, this category could give his value a bit of a boost. To say Martinez is bad in the field would be an understatement. If he goes to an AL team, that might not matter quite as much. Still, his fielding skills are more likely than not to decline from this point on, and one has to wonder at what point his defense will become a liability.

While Upton and Martinez are probably obvious bets to make more than Bruce in free agency, all three players will ultimately sign lucrative multi-year contracts. Many teams are looking for corner outfielders, and each of these three outfielders provide something the others don’t. Due to his contact ability, Bruce could be a serviceable bargain signing for a team that has the ability to get on base and put the ball in play a lot. A team with a more ground ball-oriented starting staff might care slightly less about Martinez’ outfield defense. Upton’s whiff rate might not matter to teams that are more focused on scoring runs with the long ball. It will be fun to see how these factors influence the market for each of these players.

Antonetti, Chernoff, Francona Discuss Indians’ Offseason

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The Indians were obviously disappointed by the way things ended this year, as the club was knocked out with three-straight ALDS losses. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti, GM Mike Chernoff, and skipper Terry Francona discussed the state of affairs heading into the offseason in a media session, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian reports.

Broadly, Antonetti suggested that he thinks the organization’s processes remain sound. He also cited strong performance by the roster in all three major facets of the game, while emphasizing a commitment to continue “look[ing] to get better.”

In terms of how much cash the Indians will have to work with, that evidently isn’t yet known. Unsurprisingly, though, there’s no inkling that the organization will do anything other than continue to try to win with the current core.

The group of organizational leaders discussed a variety of players and situations in the lengthy dialogue, which is well forth a full read at the above link. There’s ongoing interest in bringing back Carlos Santana, though Antonetti was non-committal on how that would progress. He did suggest that Santana could be considered for a qualifying offer, which has been set at $17.4MM. Who’s on first if he departs? Per Antonetti, the team has internal options, plus “there’s a litany of guys on the trade and free-agent market that we’ll explore.”

Jay Bruce proved a big presence for the club after his mid-season acquisition, but he’ll hit the open market as well. Chernoff expressed satisfaction with Bruce’s performance and noted there is some “mutual interest,” though it certainly seems that both sides will also explore their alternatives as well. Francona offered high praise for pending free agent reliever Bryan Shaw for his steadiness and constant readiness to enter the game. Given that, it seems possible to imagine a return, though that wasn’t addressed directly. Antonetti did say the team will “absolutely” consider re-signing Austin Jackson, who he credited for a strong bounceback year.

A few other players could present interesting questions. Somewhat notably, Antonetti said it was a “significant decision” whether to exercise Michael Brantley’s $11MM option. While he credited Brantley’s work ethic, he noted that “just getting healthy” remains a priority for the oft-injured outfielder. Likewise, there’s some uncertainty surrounding Jason Kipnis, who is under contract but doesn’t have a clear position. The versatility is a good thing, says Antonetti, but the organization also needs to consider “what opportunities are out there externally for us” in all regards before deciding how it will line up its roster. Yandy Diaz is another versatile asset, Chernoff notes, though Francona suggested he hopes to give the youngster a single position to focus on — indicating he may best be suited to the hot corner.

Also, Francona (who will, as expected, remain in his position) fielded some questions on the team’s postseason performance. In particular, he emphasized that there’s no reason to believe at present that Corey Kluber — who faltered in Game 5 and has dealt with arm slot difficulties — is anything other than healthy. Francona also noted that he has never before been so physically drained by a baseball season, saying that he intends to work on his own conditioning over the offseason. You’ll want to check out the link for more on that and other topics of discussion.

AL Central Notes: Bruce, Alomar, Sano, Vargas, Royals

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With Jay Bruce enjoying a big night in Game One of the ALDS, the Indians’ official Twitter account couldn’t resist a pretty pointed tweet at the Yankees, who came up short in their bid to acquire Bruce from the Mets last summer.  Ken Davidoff of the New York Post recaps how negotiations between the Mets and Yankees broke down, not only because Cleveland was willing to absorb all of Bruce’s remaining salary, but also because “the Mets didn’t like one bit the idea of Bruce helping the Yankees’ pennant drive” given the inter-Big Apple rivalry.  Bruce was a big contributor down the stretch for the Tribe (hitting .248/.331/.477 with seven homers over 169 PA) then went 2-for-3 with a homer and three RBI in last night’s victory.

More from around the AL Cenral…

  • In more Mets/Indians news, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (Twitter link) that Tribe first base coach Sandy Alomar Jr. “has received strong consideration” for an interview about the Mets’ managerial opening.  Alomar has been a member of Cleveland’s coaching staff for eight years, serving at first base except for a two-year stint as bench coach in 2012-13 that also included a six-game stint as interim manager at the end of the 2012 season.  Alomar has been linked to several managerial jobs over the years and has links to the Mets — he played his last season with the Amazins and spent his first two years as a coach in the Mets organization as a roving catching instructor.
  • It wouldn’t be a surprise if Miguel Sano requires surgery this offseason, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson (Twitter link) opines, given that the Twins third baseman is “in a lot more pain than many of us realized.”  Sano was sidelined on August 19 due to a stress reaction in his left shin, and while he returned for the final three games of the regular season, he didn’t make the roster for Minnesota’s wild card loss to the Yankees.
  • Kennys Vargas is interested in the idea of playing in Japan or Korea, and Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press wonders if the Twins could be more open to trading the first baseman overseas given their glut of first base/DH options.  The Twins rejected overtures about Vargas from NPB and the KBO two offseasons ago.
  • The Royals’ lease at Kaufman Stadium doesn’t expire until 2030, though the club has been in contact with parties exploring the possibility of a new ballpark in downtown Kansas City, Steve Vockrodt of the Kansas City Star reports.  According to Kevin Uhlich, the team’s senior vice president of business operations, the talks were merely to “touch base” with the project.  “We’re perfectly content where we are, we think it works well.  Thirteen years from now, who knows what the situation is going to be?  I can’t hold anybody back from doing what they’re doing on their side.  We would listen,” Uhlich said.  The city is currently funding a study to examine at least four downtown locations for a potential new park.  Kauffman Stadium is the sixth-oldest stadium in the majors, though it underwent significant renovations within the last decade.

NL East Notes: Turner, Bruce, Braves, Hoskins

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The Nationals welcomed Jayson Werth and Max Scherzer back to the roster last night, with both making strong contributions in their win. Today (weather permitting), they’ll see shortstop Trea Turner come off the disabled list as well, giving them another boost down the stretch as they gear up for the NLDS. As Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post writes, that’s just one step closer to whole for a Nats club that has played well through injuries but hasn’t gotten a chance to showcase how formidable it can be with its key lineup pieces and summer bullpen additions all healthy at the same time. Bryce Harper and Ryan Madson are the final major pieces of the puzzle, Svrluga notes, though surely the Nats would also relish the opportunity to add a healthy Koda Glover and Enny Romero to the mix as well.

A few more notes from the National League East…

  • Jay Bruce was the focal point of trade rumors and (earlier in his tenure) criticism for much of his time with the Mets, but the slugger tells Dan Martin of the New York Post that he is “absolutely” open to a reunion with the Mets in free agency this winter. Bruce tells Martin that he’s never seen a team as gutted by injuries as the 2017 Mets and still believes the team has the talent to contend in 2018. “I believe the Mets are a team that feels obligated to put a winning group out there, barring any injuries,” says Bruce. “I enjoyed my time in New York. It’s a great group of guys there. The talent’s there. The nucleus is there. We’ll see what happens.”
  • The Braves made what appear to be some fairly minor changes in their front office, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required and recommended), but some within the organization wonder if they’re the start to larger alterations. Among the more notable changes, Dom Chiti has moved from director of pitching to farm director, per Rosenthal. Special assistant Dave Wallace will step into Chiti’s former role. Dave Trembley will no longer serve as farm director and will instead be a field coordinator. Many teams make changes to their front office structure and scouting departments around this time, so the exact timing of the moves isn’t a surprise. One club official, though, spoke to Rosenthal about a “power struggle,” rhetorically asking: “Is John Schuerholz running the club or are John Hart and John Coppolella running it?” Rosenthal cites other Braves sources in reporting that Hart refutes the validity of that view. Hart, according to Rosenthal, is expected to return next year (his contract runs through 2017), and the Braves are also expected to eventually hire another exec to work under current Coppolella, who is currently the GM.
  • The Phillies still aren’t certain exactly where Rhys Hoskins will play for the remainder of the 2017 season once Aaron Altherr and Odubel Herrera are activated from the disabled list, writes MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. But, Hoskins’ historic start to his MLB career all but ensures that he’ll be in the lineup on a daily basis down the stretch. Manager Pete Mackanin suggested that he knows fully what Herrera and Altherr are capable of, so Hoskins could get some at-bats at their expense down the stretch. He’ll also be mixed in at first base, though Mackanin suggested that current first baseman Tommy Joseph “is an asset” for the Phils as well. Also of note, Zolecki notes that top prospect J.P. Crawford “is certain” to receive a September call-up, so Phils fans will soon have another look at one of the team’s hopeful core pieces.
  • Zolecki focuses on the 2017 season, but the issues that he raises lead to the greater question of Joseph’s future with the team. The Phillies have likely seen enough from Altherr and rookie Nick Williams that they’ll want each to get regular at-bats in the outfield corners next season, thus preventing Hoskins from playing left field. It seems largely inevitable that Hoskins will claim the regular first base role in 2018, barring the trade of a young outfielder this winter, which either makes Joseph himself a trade candidate or pushes him into a bench role.

MLBTR Mailbag: Lowrie, Bruce, Giants, Controllable Starters

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Thanks as always for your questions! If yours wasn’t selected this week, you can always pose it in one of our weekly chats: Steve Adams at 2pm CST on Tuesdays, Jason Martinez at 6:30pm CST on Wednesdays, and yours truly at 2pm CST on Thursdays.

Here are this week’s questions and answers:

Why is it so hard for the A’s to move Jed Lowrie? — Rene H.

Well, there has been a bit of a game of musical chairs in the second/third base market. The Red Sox went with Eduardo Nunez. The Nationals grabbed Howie Kendrick, who can also play outfield. The Brewers ended up with Neil Walker in August. Those deals filled some of the main needs out there, though there are at least a few teams that could still make a move. The Angels stand out; the Indians have looked in this area; and the Blue Jays could be a dark horse if they make a run.

But let’s suppose a few organizations are indeed still poking around on Lowrie. Those same teams will also have other options to consider. Ian Kinsler is now off the market after his waiver claim was revoked by the Tigers. But Brandon Phillips and Zack Cozart are both pending free agents who could move. Yangervis Solarte may not clear waivers, but could be claimed and pursued. And Asdrubal Cabrera also represents a possibility.

Cabrera, like Lowrie, comes with a club option for 2018. In Lowrie’s case, it’s just a $6MM cost to keep him (against a $1MM buyout). He has surely played well enough to make that a decent asset to move over the winter. And perhaps Oakland isn’t all that anxious to press Franklin Barreto into everyday duty in the majors just yet. After all, he’s only 21, didn’t hit much in his brief debut, and has encountered a rising strikeout rate at Triple-A. Lowrie could help stabilize the infield the rest of the way or even in 2018, or he could still be flipped if a decent offer comes along.

How do you guys see the [free-agent] market for Jay Bruce developing? I have a hard time believing that a 30/31-year-old who has six seasons where he OPSed over .800 would have trouble locking down a fourth year at a $13MM AAV. — Alex W.

As Alex helpfully pointed out in his email, there are indeed quite a few corner outfielders that have landed free-agent contracts in that range. Recent deals that could work as comparables run from Nick Markakis (4/$44MM) and Josh Reddick (4/$52MM) up to Nick Swisher (4/$56MM) and Curtis Granderson (4/$60MM). Bruce is a plausible candidate to land in that general realm.

I do think Bruce is flying under the radar a bit, given the obvious appeal of his quality offensive output this year — .267/.334/.541 with 32 homers. It doesn’t hurt that he has turned things on thus far since going to the Indians, has finally reversed the abysmal defensive metrics, and is regarded as a top-shelf professional. The two lost seasons of 2014 and 2015 are hard to ignore entirely, and he has never hit lefties nearly so much as righties, but he has returned to his prior trajectory since and has been average at the plate when facing southpaws this season. Plus, there won’t be any draft compensation to contend with.

But where exactly he falls, and whether he gets a fourth year or instead takes a higher AAV over three, will depend upon market forces. J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton (if he opts out) would be the two top corner outfielders, but both are righty bats that would require very significant contracts. Granderson and Melky Cabrera will present alternatives for teams seeking lefty pop, but neither has quite Bruce’s present power and both are much older. All things considered, Bruce should be fairly well positioned.

I’m wondering if the Giants’ plan to re-tool, rather than rebuild, has a reasonable chance of success. Does SF have only two or three spots, like one outfielder and two pitchers, that will make the difference in being competitive? Or will the re-tooling need to involve more spots on the roster, like two outfielders, maybe an infielder (third base), and three or four pitchers? And are there players available in free-agency for them to do that? — Tim D.

Let’s start with the presumption that Johnny Cueto opts into the remainder of his deal. That would fill one of the rotation slots but also keeps a lot of cash on the books — over $150MM total already for 2018, with more than $100MM promised in each of the next two seasons. And the club will also have to consider what it’ll cost to keep Madison Bumgarner around past 2019.

Looking over the roster — see the current depth chart here — the Giants will face questions in a variety of areas. Third base is unresolved, the team needs at least one starting outfielder (a center-field-capable player would perhaps be preferred, bumping Denard Span to left), and several bench/platoon roles are open to question. The team will likely at least look into adding a starter, though it could choose instead to go with Matt Moore along with Ty Blach or another less-established pitcher to line up behind Cueto, Bumgarner, and Jeff Samardzija. Bullpens can always be improved, though the Giants can hope for a bounceback from Mark Melancon and continued performance from reclamation hit Sam Dyson in the late innings.

On the whole, then, perhaps a more dramatic roster overhaul isn’t really needed. Assuming the club is willing to spend up to, but not past, the $180MM-ish payroll it carried entering the current season, that leaves some room to add. But the long-term commitments and 2017 downturns certainly also speak in favor of exercising some caution. I’d expect a focus on striking shorter-term deals with veterans.

Possibilities at third could include Pablo Sandoval, Todd Frazier, and Yunel Escobar, or the Giants could go bigger and chase the still-youthful Mike Moustakas. In the outfield, Lorenzo Cain would be the top center-field target, though he’ll be entering his age-32 season and won’t be cheap. There are some interesting alternatives, including Carlos Gomez, Jon Jay, and Jarrod Dyson. It’s also possible the Giants could chase Bruce or another corner piece while adding a player like Austin Jackson to platoon with Span in center. And as ever, there are lots of different pitchers available at different price points should they look to add there.

Ultimately, there ought to be decent value available in the price range the Giants will be shopping. Whether that’ll work out or not … well, that’s dependent upon quite a few other factors and is tough to predict at this point.

Which young, controllable starters (like Chris Archer, for example) will potentially be available via trade this upcoming offseason? –Matt H.

Archer is certainly a good example of a guy who could be available and who’ll be asked about quite a lot. Depending upon how things end up for the Rays this year — currently, it’s not trending in the right direction — they may be more or less inclined to undertake a more dramatic move such as dealing the staff ace.

Generally, though, I’d expect the pickings to be slim. Several teams that sit in the bottom of the standings and have young arms don’t seem likely to move them. For instance, I don’t really expect the Mets (Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, etc.), Blue Jays (Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez), or Phillies (Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez) to be looking to deal young starters.

There are a few other names to watch, though. Michael Fulmer of the Tigers would figure to draw some of the most fervent interest, and Detroit has to be thinking creatively entering an offseason full of questions. The Pirates could decide that now’s the time to move Gerrit Cole, though he’ll only have two years of control remaining so may not really meet the parameters. Julio Teheran of the Braves will surely again be a topic of speculation, at least, and the Marlins will have to consider cashing in Dan Straily.

East Notes: Yankees, Mets, Nava, Orioles, De Leon

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Both the Yankees and Mets acted rationally with their approaches in trades this summer, opines Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Yankees showed a willingness to deal from the middle range of their considerable prospect depth to avoid luxury taxation, as they did with the Jaime Garcia trade and reportedly tried to do in their pursuits of Jay Bruce and Neil Walker. Sherman writes that the Yankees asked the Mets to eat $2.7MM of the remaining $3.7MM on Bruce’s contract in exchange for two prospects. The Mets clearly didn’t deem the difference between that pair and Ryder Ryan (whom they acquired from the Indians for Bruce) to be sizable enough to eat that cash. While many Mets fans chastise the organization for not spending, Sherman points out that the Mets have taken on salary (Bruce, Addison Reed, Yoenis Cespedes) in recent years. They’ve also already begun spending for 2018, Sherman adds, pointing to the acquisition of AJ Ramos. In that sense, saving money in trades to better stock the team’s offseason war chest could have relatively immediate impact on the team’s fortunes. Of course, it remains to be seen how their offseason plays out.

A bit more from the game’s Eastern divisions…

  • The Phillies announced tonight that outfielder Daniel Nava has been placed on the 10-day disabled list due to a lower back strain. The veteran Nava’s injury is especially noteworthy given the fact that he seemed a logical August trade candidate for the Phils. The 33-year-old switch-hitter hasn’t done much against left-handed pitching this year — he’s always been weaker as a right-handed bat — but he’s clubbed righty pitching at a .347/.427.492 clip through 143 PAs and could’ve been a solid bench addition for a contender. There’s still time for Nava to get back and demonstrate his health to interested parties, but his back injury clearly diminishes the chances of a trade.
  • Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com writes that Orioles GM Dan Duquette has a long history of making August deals — six in the past five years — but opines that there’s not much worth pursuing for the O’s this summer. Baltimore’s greatest need is starting pitching, but the remaining available arms are mostly fringe fifth starters that don’t represent a clear upgrade over the Orioles’ current options. Nonetheless, Connolly states that he does find it likely that Duquette and his staff make some kind of move, noting that the Orioles have “always had a little interest in” Derek Holland and are quite familiar with Miguel Gonzalez — both currently pitching for the rebuilding White Sox. I’d agree with Connolly that neither seems to represent an upgrade, though the O’s could probably acquire either pitcher primarily in exchange for salary relief.
  • Rays right-hander Jose De Leon is on the minor league disabled list for the third time this season, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. De Leon, who has previously dealt with forearm/flexor issues, now has tendinitis in his right elbow, per Topkin. It’s been a frustrating first season with the Rays organization for De Leon — a highly touted pitching prospect that was acquired in a straight-up swap that sent Logan Forsythe to the Dodgers. De Leon has appeared in just one big league game with the Rays and has only 38 1/3 minor league innings under his belt, though he’s logged a 3.05 ERA with 44-to-16 K/BB ratio in the minors when healthy.

Notes From The Jay Bruce Trade

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Last night’s trade sending Jay Bruce from the Mets to the Indians was perhaps the most significant deal since the non-waiver deadline. It could well hold that title the rest of the way, though there are also a variety of other notable players that could be dealt this month. (Click here for MLBTR’s top 25 ranking of candidates; click here to see the players that have already reportedly cleared waivers.)

While the transaction was largely a straightforward affair — a team with a need chipped in a low-level prospect and took on the entire contract of a veteran who fit — it’s worth taking a look at some of the post-deal chatter:

  • Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti spoke with the media about the deal, and MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian provided a transcript of the chat. Antonetti acknowledged the importance of injuries to the swap, noting that the club wouldn’t really even have playing time to give to Bruce were it not for the absences of Lonnie Chisenhall and now Michael Brantley. The timing was right now, says the club’s top baseball decisionmaker, but the organization has long had interest in Bruce. While Cleveland will begin to face some challenging playing-time questions if it gets a fully healthy roster, the expectation at present is that Bruce will “play regularly.”
  • There aren’t a lot of recent scouting reports on Ryder Ryan, the young righty who goes to New York in the trade. That’s due largely to the fact that he is a late-round relief prospect that hasn’t had much time to climb the organizational ladder. But that doesn’t mean he’s not a reasonably intriguing prospect. Antonetti himself said as much, crediting Ryan’s “really good stuff” and saying he “has a chance to pitch in a major league bullpen.” Baseball America also has some details, noting that Ryan is working in the mid-nineties while working on developing his slider and commanding his pitches.
  • One of the most interesting elements of the deal, though, was the alternative swap that didn’t go through. The Yankees were in on Bruce through to the end, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter) and Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link) report. But the Yankees’ offer would’ve left the Mets holding onto most of Bruce’s remaining salary this year, per reports from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (on Twitter) and Newsday’s Marc Carig (also in a tweet), while also picking up two prospects that (it stands to reason) would be more valuable than Ryan. The Mets’ motivation for choosing Cleveland’s offer isn’t yet entirely clear — GM Sandy Alderson has yet to speak to the media, but will do so today — but there could certainly be multiple factors at play. While the cross-town Yankees obviously aren’t off limits as a trade partner, perhaps considerations of intra-city marketing played some role. And surely the cost and talent packages offered different benefits and drawbacks.
  • Per Sherman, Bruce would’ve functioned as the DH had he been acquired by the Yankees, filling in there with Matt Holliday on the DL. With Aaron Hicks nearing a return and Greg Bird still representing a possible option, there are some internal possibilities for bolstering the team’s array of lefty bats. While it’s not clear at present whether the Yanks are looking hard at alternatives, it stands to reason they’d be open to the possibility. (Clearly, though, there are limits to how much salary they want to take on at this point.) Among the players that we have identified as plausible August trade chips, there are a few that could fit the bill. If the Mets are willing to keep chatting, old friend Curtis Granderson or even Neil Walker could make sense; neither has the same profile as Bruce but both offer more defensive function. Former Red Sox nemesis Daniel Nava might be an affordable target, while Matt Joyce of the Athletics is surely available. Of course, Yonder Alonso arguably made the most sense, but he was dealt to the Mariners after Seattle placed a waiver claim (meaning the Yankees never had a shot — at least, after July 31st).

Indians Acquire Jay Bruce

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The Indians have officially announced a deal with the Mets that’ll bring outfielder Jay Bruce to Cleveland. Going to New York in return is 22-year-old righty Ryder Ryan. All of Bruce’s remaining salary — around $4MM of the $13MM annual obligation — will land on Cleveland’s books.

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It’s hardly a major surprise to hear of a deal involving Bruce; indeed, he ranked second on the list of top August trade candidates that we just published earlier this evening. The fading Mets have given signals they’d consider making him a qualifying offer, but that never seemed a sure thing.

Bruce has turned in a quality season thus far for the Mets after being shopped around a bit last winter. Entering today, he carried a .258/.324/.524 slash and had launched 29 long balls. Long in the doghouse of advanced metrics for his work in the outfield, Bruce has posted much improved numbers there, though his baserunning marks have since faded.

There was talk before the deadline that Cleveland would have interest in Bruce. That seems all the more necessary now, with Michael Brantley joining Lonnie Chisenhall on the DL and the Royals continuing to hang around in the AL Central. Bruce’s lefty power bat will fill in the gap while those two players work back and add quite a bit of firepower to the overall offensive mix for a hopeful postseason run.

Bruce will no doubt be pleased with the trade; indeed, he had reportedly indicated a willingness to waive his partial no-trade clause to go to a contender (though the Indians were not on it, per Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network, on Twitter). Instead of possibly drawing a qualifying offer after playing out a lost Mets season, he will enter free agency free and clear of any draft compensation while joining a contender.

Though New York will give up the chance to issue Bruce a qualifying offer, it’s not hard to see the reasoning here. The 30-year-old is a quality player, but a roughly $18MM salary — even for a single year — is no small amount. Plus, Bruce’s continuing presence with the Mets would’ve meant for an awkward outfield mix, as the team would’ve presumably bumped Michael Conforto into significant time in center. Instead, the Mets can utilize Conforto in right, pairing Juan Lagares with Brandon Nimmo or another player in center, while perhaps redirecting some of those resources. It’s worth bearing in mind, too, that the new CBA would only have given the Mets a pick after the second round if Bruce had declined the QO and signed elsewhere. Plus, the Mets will now have a cleaner path for the promotion of first base prospect Dominic Smith.

Clearing Bruce’s remaining salary is likely the main driver here. But Ryan will bring another interesting arm to the New York system. He is said to have plenty of velocity in the tank, though he also has limited experience on the mound after mostly playing in the field during college. Through 41 1/3 frames at the Class A level this year, Ryan owns a 4.79 ERA with 10.7 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9.

ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter) first reported a deal was in the works. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter) said it was being finalized; Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network (Twitter link) first said the deal was done. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the prospect return on Twitter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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