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J.D. Martinez

Latest On Diamondbacks, J.D. Martinez

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The Diamondbacks’ odds of re-signing free agent right fielder J.D. Martinez already looked low even before a report emerged Wednesday that he’s seeking a contract worth around $200MM in guarantees. The team’s chances of keeping the star slugger seemingly took another hit Friday when CEO Derrick Hall announced that its payroll won’t significantly climb in 2018.

“You’re not talking about $10 million,” Hall said of a potential spending increase (via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). That’s not to say the Diamondbacks won’t increase their payroll at all, however. There could be wiggle room for them to add a few million in payroll as the offseason moves along and club gets a clearer picture of its anticipated revenue.

Arizona hasn’t opened a season above the $100MM mark since 2014, though it did close each of the past two years above that figure. Now, thanks largely to guaranteed money owed to five veterans (Zack Greinke, Yasmany Tomas, Paul Goldschmidt, Jeff Mathis and Daniel Descalso) and arbitration projections for 14 other players, the Diamondbacks are already in the $120MM range for 2018 without having added any new players, per an estimate from Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource.

All signs are pointing toward J.D. Martinez’s exit via the open market, though Hall did say Friday that the Diamondbacks are “going to be aggressive for, really, any and all players that can help us,” adding that they’re “taking a strong look” at the 30-year-old (via Steve Gilbert of MLB.com). Martinez’s agent, Scott Boras, suggested Wednesday that he expects the Diamondbacks to be serious contenders to sign his client. But Hall revealed on Friday that there have not been any discussions between the club and Boras since Martinez hired him as his new representative Nov. 1.

“(We had) some good conversations (before free agency began) and since then he’s sought new representation, so things have changed from those initial conversations,” Hall said. “But J.D. is such a great guy and we’re just glad to know that he enjoyed his time here because we enjoyed him being here, too.”

After Arizona acquired Martinez from Detroit in a mid-July trade, he batted an all-world .302/.366/.741 with 29 home runs in 232 plate appearances to emerge as one of the most effective midseason pickups of all-time. That dazzling second-half output helped the Diamondbacks to a 93-69 finish and their first playoff berth since 2011, and Boras is well aware of it.

“High atop the MLB Empire rests the King Kong of Slug — a 50-point lead,” Boras said of the slugging percentage Martinez posted in Arizona (Twitter link via Jon Morosi of MLB Network). “That’s how dominant J.D. Kong is.”

AL East Notes: Bruce, Jays, Sox, Darvish, JDM, Hosmer, O’s

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Some rumblings from around the AL East…

  • The Blue Jays “were after” Jay Bruce during the season and are likely to pursue the outfielder in free agency, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports.  Bruce reportedly didn’t draw much trade interest prior to the July deadline, though the Mets were able to deal the slugger to Cleveland in August.  It should be noted that the Jays were one of eight teams on Bruce’s no-trade list, so it could be that Bruce nixed the idea of moving to a team that was only on the outskirts of the AL wild card chase and never reached the .500 mark all season.  The Jays’ inclusion on Bruce’s list also doesn’t necessarily mean he wouldn’t consider them as a free agent destination — given the Blue Jays’ past interest in his services, Bruce could have been trying to leverage some extra financial incentive in the event of another trade offer.  MLBTR’s top 50 free agents list predicted a match between Bruce and the Jays, as Toronto is sorely in need of a right fielder and a big left-handed bat.
  • The Red Sox asked the Rangers about Yu Darvish prior to the trade deadline, Evan Drellich of NBCSports.com reports.  It seems like this was mostly a cursory check-in, as talks fizzled since the Sox weren’t interested in moving a Major League player and the Rangers weren’t too interested in Boston’s prospects.  It could be argued that the Sox have enough injury uncertainty in their pitching staff to require adding another veteran arm this winter, though Darvish doesn’t seem like a fit in free agency due to his big price tag and Boston’s more pressing need for offensive help.
  • Speaking of that search for bats, both J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer are expected to draw attention from the Red Sox this winter, though “multiple evaluators around the game” tell the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier that Martinez will be the bigger priority of the two.  Martinez has the more consistent track record of production, he won’t cost a draft pick in compensation (as Hosmer will have a qualifying offer attached) and he hits left-handed pitching better than Hosmer does, plus Hosmer’s excellent 2017 numbers may have been boosted by the good fortune of a .351 BABIP.  As Speier notes, however, the Red Sox could also aim lower and address several needs with the money required to sign Martinez or Hosmer.
  • Lorenzo Cain would be an upgrade for the Orioles but the club isn’t likely to pursue the outfielder in free agency, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes.  Baltimore is going to focus on pitching this winter, and the team will be looking at left-handed hitters when it comes to addressing its lineup needs.

J.D. Martinez Hires Scott Boras

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On the brink of free agency, slugger J.D. Martinez has switched representation and is now a client of agent Scott Boras, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI.com (on Twitter). The change comes just a day before the beginning of an offseason in which Martinez stands out as the top bat on the free-agent market — if not the top free agent overall.

The 30-year-old Martinez missed the first five-plus weeks of the season due to a foot injury and nonetheless returned to hit a career-high 45 home runs in 119 games between the Tigers and Diamondbacks. Overall, he slashed a ridiculous .303/.376/.690 on the season, bringing his cumulative batting line since 2014 to .300/.362/.574. Martinez has averaged 32 homers per season and 40 long balls per 162 games played in that four-year stretch, establishing himself as one of the top sluggers in all of Major League Baseball.

Martinez’s new representatives will likely position him as the top offensive threat on the open market this winter, though they’ll also have to assuage concerns over their new client’s recent injuries as well as his declining defensive ratings. Martinez was limited to just 120 games in 2016 as well, though that was the result of a fractured elbow that can largely be written off as a fluke injury. His glovework could prove more troubling. After rating as an above-average defender in 2014-15, Martinez graded out as one of baseball’s worst defenders at any position in 2016 and was well below average (though still somewhat improved) in 2017.

Those potential shortcomings notwithstanding, it’s quite likely that Martinez will out-earn every other hitter on the free-agent market this winter. He joins Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Jake Arrieta as the most notable Boras clients of the offseason — a list that also includes Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, Jeremy Hellickson and Tony Watson.

The change in representation has been reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains agency information on more than 2,500 Major League and Minor League players. If you come across any notable errors or omissions within, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

Sorting The Skills Of The Best Free Agent Corner Outfielders

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Last night, I sorted the skills of the best free agent first basemen. While there are always a large number of free agent corner outfielders, this year there are three that stand high above the rest. Justin Upton (who can opt out of the remaining 4 years and $88MM on his current deal), J.D. Martinez and Jay Bruce all had great 2017 seasons, and all three are 30 years of age.

But the similarities don’t stop there. Each of those three corner outfielders smacked at least 35 homers while driving it at least 100 runs in 2017. All three were traded mid-season, making them ineligible for qualifying offers (though Upton wouldn’t have been able to receive one under the new CBA anyway, since he’s been issued a QO in a past season). All have averaged at least 550 plate appearances per season for the past three years. They even share the same first initial.

So what makes these three players different? Let’s start by taking a quick look at their fWAR.

One-Year Sample (2017)

  1. Upton – 5.0
  2. Martinez – 3.8
  3. Bruce – 2.7

Three-Year Sample (2015-2017)

  1. Martinez – 10.5
  2. Upton – 9.9
  3. Bruce – 3.7

Upton seems to have had the best overall 2017 season, while Martinez has been more valuable over the larger sample size. But each of these outfielders provide their value to prospective ballclubs in different ways. Here’s a breakdown of their skill sets.

Power

Isolated Power (ISO):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – .367
  2. Upton – .268
  3. Bruce – .254

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – .284
  2. Bruce – .239
  3. Upton – .230

Extra Base Hits Per Plate 100 Plate Appearances:

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 15.13
  2. Upton – 12.44
  3. Bruce – 10.85

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 12.39
  2. Bruce – 10.67
  3. Upton – 10.37

It’s no surprise that Martinez leads the way in the power department. Despite missing over a month of the 2017 season with an injury, he still managed to lead the group with 45 homers between the Tigers and Diamondbacks. Ever since his breakout year with the Tigers, he’s been a home run monster. While Upton was better in 2017, Bruce has an advantage over him when a three-year sample is taken into account, probably in part due to Upton’s poor start to 2016. Power is certainly not a weakness for any of these players, but Martinez is the runaway favorite in the pop department.

Plate Discipline

Strikeout Rate (K%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 22.5%
  2. Martinez – 26.2%
  3. Upton – 28.3%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 22.1%
  2. Martinez – 26.1%
  3. Upton – 27.5%

Walk Rate (BB%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 11.7%
  2. Martinez – 10.8%
  3. Bruce – 9.2%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 10.2%
  2. Martinez – 9.3%
  3. Bruce – 8.6%

Chase Rate on Pitches Outside the Strike Zone (O-Swing %):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 26.9%
  2. Bruce – 31.3%
  3. Martinez – 32.1%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 25.7%
  2. Bruce – 32.0%
  3. Martinez – 33.8%

All three of these players have been pretty consistent in their plate discipline skills across the past three seasons. While Upton seems to have a lot of swing and miss in his game, he chases a much lower percentage of bad pitches than do the others. He also draws more walks. We can probably say with some certainty that Martinez has the worst plate discipline of the group.

Contact Ability

Contact Rate (Contact %):

One-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 73.9%
  2. Upton – 71.7%
  3. Martinez – 71.2%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 75.8%
  2. Martinez – 72.0%
  3. Upton – 71.2%

Bruce would appear to have the best ability to make contact. It’s interesting to see that his contact rate is down so significantly from years past; hopefully this is not a sign of decline but rather a sign of change in approach. Martinez and Upton are close enough that we can basically consider this category a toss-up between those two.

Quality of Contact

Barrels Per 100 Plate Appearances:

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 12.3
  2. Upton – 7.9
  3. Bruce – 7.1

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 10.9
  2. Upton – 7.4
  3. Bruce – 6.4

Hard Contact Rate (Hard%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 49.0%
  2. Upton – 41.0%
  3. Bruce – 40.3%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 44.0%
  2. Upton – 38.1%
  3. Bruce – 37.9%

Average Exit Velocity, MPH (AEV):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 90.8
  2. Upton – 88.8
  3. Bruce – 88.3

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 91.2
  2. Upton – 90.1
  3. Bruce – 89.0

The numbers are completely consistent across categories and sample sizes; Martinez makes the highest-quality contact by a wide margin, with Upton being just a bit better than Bruce in each of these categories. It’s worth mentioning that Martinez’ 12.3 barrels per hundred plate appearances ranked second in all of baseball this year, behind only the Yankees’ Aaron Judge (12.8).

Offensive Versatility

wRC+ vs. Weak Platoon Side:

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 147
  2. Upton – 131
  3. Bruce – 88

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 141
  2. Upton – 120
  3. Bruce – 82

Pull Rate (Pull%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 38.3%
  2. Upton – 38.6%
  3. Bruce – 44.4%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 40.9%
  2. Martinez – 40.1%
  3. Bruce – 45.3%

Bruce’s value really falls off here. Martinez and Upton are both worse against righties than lefties, but still right-handers for well-above-average results. Bruce, on the other hand, is a below-average hitter against southpaws. Furthermore, Bruce is far more vulnerable to shifts than his counterparts, consistently pulling the ball far more often. Count Bruce a loser in this arena.

Baserunning

Fangraphs Baserunning Rating (BsR):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 4.0
  2. Bruce – [-2.1]
  3. Martinez – [-5.7]

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 10.2
  2. Bruce – [-6.7]
  3. Martinez [-11.2]

Statcast Sprint Speed, Feet Per Second:

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 27.6
  2. Martinez – 26.8
  3. Bruce – 26.5

Upton really separates himself in this regard, providing positive baserunning value while reaching a peak sprint speed nearly a full mile per hour better than his competitors. It’s probably best to use the one-year sample size here, as players don’t often end up getting faster after age 30. Martinez’ baserunning value works against him, but speed doesn’t matter as much when you’re hitting 45 balls out of the park.

Fielding

Ultimate Zone Rating Runs Per 150 Innings (UZR/150):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 3.5
  2. Bruce – 2.4
  3. Martinez – [-14.8]

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – [-0.3]
  2. Bruce – [-4.0]
  3. Martinez – [-7.2]

Defensive Runs Saved (DRS):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 8
  2. Bruce – 5
  3. Martinez – [-5]

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 17
  2. Bruce – [-1]
  3. Martinez – [-23]

Here, we see yet another area where Upton distinguishes himself. Upton rates as a far superior option to both Bruce and Martinez over a three-year sample size. If we’re to believe Bruce has genuinely made improvements to his glovework, this category could give his value a bit of a boost. To say Martinez is bad in the field would be an understatement. If he goes to an AL team, that might not matter quite as much. Still, his fielding skills are more likely than not to decline from this point on, and one has to wonder at what point his defense will become a liability.

While Upton and Martinez are probably obvious bets to make more than Bruce in free agency, all three players will ultimately sign lucrative multi-year contracts. Many teams are looking for corner outfielders, and each of these three outfielders provide something the others don’t. Due to his contact ability, Bruce could be a serviceable bargain signing for a team that has the ability to get on base and put the ball in play a lot. A team with a more ground ball-oriented starting staff might care slightly less about Martinez’ outfield defense. Upton’s whiff rate might not matter to teams that are more focused on scoring runs with the long ball. It will be fun to see how these factors influence the market for each of these players.

Offseason Rumblings: J.D., Grichuk, Cards, Twins, Rockies

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Along with the Diamondbacks (his current team), the Giants, Angels, Cardinals and Red Sox all stand out as potential offseason fits for impending free agent outfielder J.D. Martinez, Jon Morosi of MLB.com writes.  While the Cardinals and Red Sox already have logjams in the outfield, a trade could open up room for Martinez, notes Morosi, who adds that whether the Angels pursue the offensive superstar is going to depend on Justin Upton’s opt-out decision. The Giants, meanwhile, are in dire need of a slugger and a corner outfielder, making them arguably the most logical match for Martinez, Morosi opines.

  • Outfielder Randal Grichuk has come up as someone the Cardinals could trade, and the 26-year-old realizes he may have played his last game in their uniform. On whether he expects to be a Redbird in 2018, Grichuk told Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com: “No. Not necessarily. But who knows. Anything is possible. It’s going to be a fun offseason. It’s going to be an interesting offseason to see what direction the club goes with a lot of guys. I’m excited to see what the future holds.” Grichuk has registered decent production across 1,386 career plate appearances in St. Louis (.249/.297/.488, .239 ISO) and put up back-to-back 20-home run seasons, but a lack of plate discipline has somewhat offset his impressive power and made him a trade candidate. Grichuk is projected to earn $2.8MM in 2018, his first of three arbitration-eligible seasons.
  • After Twins pitchers recorded the majors’ third-worst swinging-strike rate in 2017, team brass is hoping to build a staff capable of missing more bats, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press details. At the same time, the Twins aren’t ruling out having some pitch-to-contact types on hand. In fact, even though closers Matt Belisle and Brandon Kintzler (now with the Nationals) generated fewer swings and misses than the average reliever this season, the club’s interested in re-signing the former and reuniting with the latter in free agency, according to Berardino.
  • For the second straight offseason, the Rockies will have to work on shoring up their bullpen, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post observes. The Rockies signed Greg Holland and Mike Dunn to sizable contracts last winter, but Holland’s now set to opt out of his deal and head to the open market again. Colorado probably won’t be able to re-sign the closer, Saunders writes, and the fact that Holland isn’t the team’s only key reliever who could exit in free agency only worsens matters. Jake McGee and July trade acquisition Pat Neshek are also unsigned entering the offseason. Holland, McGee and Neshek were among the best options in a bullpen that made big strides from 2016 to ’17, jumping from 23rd in fWAR to sixth and last in ERA to 20th.

Hazen, Hall On D-Backs’ Offseason Plans

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Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen and president Derrick Hall chatted about the organization’s plans after the culmination of an exciting season, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports.

Both suggested an interest in continuity while also contemplating the possibility of some changes in the makeup of the roster. Certainly, there’ll be some complications as the organization seeks ways to improve the on-field result. Hazen downplayed financial considerations as a catalyst for roster moves, but both he and Hall acknowledged their import.

“I’m not anticipating a lot of challenges with being able to bring the group back as constituted if, in fact, that’s what we chose to do,” said Hazen. While “some changes” are to be anticipated, he said, “I don’t think a large majority of that will be driven by (finances) specifically.”

Hall was a bit more explicit about the limitations. Suggesting that the team has been a bit hasty in doubling down on prior quality seasons, he  cited “the need for sustainability” in an offseason approach. Ultimately, said Hall, “we have to get creative in a few spots financially if we’re going to get aggressive in certain areas.”

It’s hard to guess just what kind of creative options might conceivably be pursued. The team could consider trading away some of its relatively more expensive players, though that seems to be quite a challenge from the outside. In all likelihood, Arizona would need to hang onto significant future obligations (or sweeten the pot with prospects) to move Zack Greinke or Yasmany Tomas. Trading or non-tendering arb-eligible players could result in some savings, though in almost all cases that would mean opening up corresponding holes.

While the Snakes have a relatively modest $60.5MM committed to 2018 payroll, that sum accounts for just four players. Indeed, more than half is ticketed for Greinke alone, which helps to illustrate just how relatively massive that commitment was and is for this organization. But that’s not the only source of salary. As Piecoro notes, the MLBTR arb projections call for a hefty tally of just over $50MM for Arizona.

This year, the D-Backs opened with a payroll in the $93MM range and ultimately topped out at around $105MM, per Piecoro. In the past, the Opening Day balance sheet has been as high as $112MM. Clearly, though, the club will approach or exceed that amount just by holding pat.

None of the above numbers account for star outfielder J.D. Martinez, who was added at the deadline and is now headed for free agency. There are others, too, who’ll need to be replaced — especially closer Fernando Rodney, relievers Jorge De La Rosa and David Hernandez, and catcher Chris Iannetta. Finding new players for those roles may not be prohibitively expensive, though as ever there’s generally a tradeoff between the cost and the quality of an asset.

Regarding Martinez, who’s expected to command a huge commitment after a monster season, the D-Backs say they’ll at least try to facilitate a return. In Hazen’s words, the club will “certainly stay engaged” with Martinez. Adding the kind of annual salary that the slugger could command would surely require a significant payroll boost and/or the shedding of some other major commitments.

NL Notes: Martinez, Cardinals, Nationals

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Diamondbacks right fielder J.D. Martinez has been one of majors’ top offensive players over the past few years, but his 2014 breakout wouldn’t have come if not for Los Angeles-based hitting coaches Craig Wallenbrock and Robert Van Scoyoc, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic details. When Martinez first visited the duo four years ago, his swing “was pretty terrible, to be honest,” according to Van Scoyoc. Added Wallenbrock, “We probably made more drastic changes with him than we did with anybody.” Martinez began working diligently with the pair after the 2013 season (before the Astros released him in March 2014), and the fly ball-first approach they preach has paid enormous dividends. As an Astro from 2011-13, Martinez hit .251/.300/.387 with 24 home runs and a 33.3 percent fly ball rate in 975 trips to the plate. Since then, Martinez has combined for 2,143 plate appearances with the Tigers and D-backs and slashed .300/.362/.574 with 128 HRs and a 40.1 percent fly ball rate. The 30-year-old currently stands as one of the game’s premier free agents-to-be, and realizes he wouldn’t be where he is without Wallenbrock and Van Scoyoc. “I am who I am because of them,” Martinez said.

More from the National League:

  • The Cardinals are in search of power, something third baseman Jedd Gyorko provided both last year and this season, but it’s possible he’ll be on another roster in 2018, Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. While Gyorko has hit a team-high 50 home runs since 2016 (20 this year) and, in manager Mike Matheny’s words, “played a phenomenal third base,” the Cardinals could shop him if they make changes at his position or elsewhere in in the infield. Gyorko, who’s controllable through 2020 at reasonable costs, wants to stay where he is. “I would love to be here, but who knows?” he said. “If I could spend the rest of my career here that would be great. I can’t see any reason why you wouldn’t want to play here.”
  • Elsewhere in the Cardinals’ infield, the presence of power-hitting shortstop Paul DeJong gives them a leg up on most teams, Benjamin Hochman of the Post-Dispatch argues. Of the top eight shortstops in home runs this year, five ended up in the postseason, Hochman points out. The 24-year-old DeJong was one of the three who didn’t, but the rookie still posted outstanding production with 25 long balls – good for second at his position – to go with a .285/.325/.532 line and a .247 ISO over 443 PAs. But DeJong’s output did come with some good fortune – with 124 strikeouts against 21 unintentional walks, he logged one of the worst ratios in the game. Further, according to Statcast (via Baseball Savant), DeJong’s expected weighted on-base average (.323) lagged far behind his actual wOBA (.365). Sill, Hochman expects DeJong to be the answer for the Cards at short, a position Aledmys Diaz couldn’t lock down this season after unexpectedly bursting on the scene as a rookie in 2016.
  • In a decision that raised eyebrows at the time, outfielder Jayson Werth left the contending Phillies for the upstart Nationals’ seven-year, $126MM offer in December 2010. The Nationals have turned into a winning organization since then, in part because of Werth, Nats GM Mike Rizzo told Mark Bowman of MLB.com. “I brought him here to shape us as a championship-caliber franchise,” Rizzo said. “Slowly, we’ve kind of morphed into a very professional organization. We have a protocol and a process. He has been an instrumental factor in getting us where we’re at.” Werth’s production has been a mixed bag in D.C., but the club “got everything we intended to get out of” signing him, Rizzo contends. Werth, meanwhile, is “proud” of the “first-class organization” the Nats have become during his seven-year run, and he’s content to “leave this organization in a better state than when I arrived.”

Cafardo’s Latest: J.D., Red Sox, Mariners, Stanton, Cubs, Braves

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It “would appear” the Red Sox will be involved in the chase for Diamondbacks outfielder J.D. Martinez if he hits free agency in the offseason, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. As Cafardo points out, there’s a connection between Red Sox president Dave Dombrowski and Martinez, whom the former plucked off the scrapheap when he was Detroit’s general manager in 2014. Now one of the premier hitters in the game, Martinez would provide some much-needed punch to a Red Sox club that’s lacking in the power department, though it’s unclear where he’d play in Boston. On paper, the Red Sox look set in the outfield for the next few years with Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. in the fold.

More rumblings from Cafardo:

  • Indians first baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana is another free agent-to-be who’s likely to land on the Red Sox’s radar, per Cafardo, who also names the Mariners as a probable suitor. Considering their positions, the switch-hitting Santana would seem to be a more natural fit than Martinez for Boston, which has gotten subpar production at first from impending free agent Mitch Moreland this year. Meanwhile, Mariners first basemen ranked last in the majors in fWAR (minus-0.7) during the regular season. Their top option, Yonder Alonso, could depart in free agency, which may lead to a Santana pursuit.
  • The Cubs could be a team to watch if the Marlins shop right fielder Giancarlo Stanton in the offseason, Cafardo suggests. It’s unclear whether the Cubs would have interest in the potential NL MVP, who’s due $295MM through 2028 (if he doesn’t opt out of his contract after 2020), but they have plenty of players the Marlins “would love” to acquire, notes Cafardo.
  • Royals GM Dayton Moore will only head to Atlanta if the Braves give him complete control, according to Cafardo. That jibes with a previous report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and suggests that president John Hart would have to exit for a Moore-Braves union to come to fruition. Hart isn’t planning on leaving, however, Cafardo reports. Two members of the Nationals’ front office – assistant GM Doug Harris and the previously reported Dan Jennings – as well as ex-Red Sox GM Ben Cherington (now in Toronto) are on Hart’s radar as he seeks a replacement for John Coppolella, Cafardo relays.
  • Yomiuri Giants right-hander Miles Mikolas is eyeing a return to the majors, and if he does opt out of his contract in Japan, it appears he’ll draw plenty of big league interest. Fourteen major league teams scouted Mikolas’ most recent starts, and there’s a belief among some that he could be a capable mid-rotation starter if he comes back, according to Cafardo. Mikolas, 29, logged 37 appearances (10 starts) with the Padres and Rangers from 2012-14 and recorded a 5.32 ERA, 6.1 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9. He has been stellar with Yomiuri since 2015, though, with a 2.18 ERA, 8.0 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 across 62 starts.
  • The Tigers decided before the season ended to part with manager Brad Ausmus, but he told Cafardo that he wouldn’t have returned “even if they had offered me a three-year deal.” Ausmus didn’t believe he was the right match for a Detroit team in the initial stages of a rebuild. On potentially managing someplace else, he said, “I’d have to study the situation and see if it was the right fit for me.”

NL West Notes: Martinez, Cain, Urias, Padres

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J.D. Martinez has been an incredible source of power for the D-backs, slugging 18 homers in just 173 plate appearances with his new team. There’s mutual interest between the two sides in extending their relationship beyond the 2017 season, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, though there are clear challenges that stand in the way of that possibility. With Zack Greinke, Yasmany Tomas and Paul Goldschmidt already under contract in 2018 plus an enormous arbitration class (A.J. Pollock, Robbie Ray, Jake Lamb, David Peralta, Shelby Miller, Chris Owings, Patrick Corbin, Taijuan Walker, Randall Delgado, Andrew Chafin), Arizona is already likely to approach or replicate 2017’s Opening Day payroll of $103MM. Martinez suggested that he’d prefer to sign with a winning team rather than a rebuilding club that offered more money, while GM Mike Hazen (without mentioning any possible payroll constraints) said he wouldn’t rule anything out. That said, with a five-year deal looking firmly plausible for Martinez this winter, it seems to me that a reunion between the two sides is a considerable long shot, as other contenders will surely be making lucrative offers as well.

Elsewhere in the division…

  • Right-hander Matt Cain isn’t sure what the future holds for him, writes John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. The former Giants ace and longtime rotation stalwart tells Shea that “being able to be a career guy (with one team) is something that’s dear to my heart.” Cain adds that he values the loyalty that the organization has shown to him over the course of his career and that he’d relish the chance to become just the fourth player to ever have spent at least 10 years in the Majors — all with the Giants. Cain, though, does not firmly rule out the possibility of continuing his career, even if it’s with another club. Giants fans will want to check out the full column, as it’s filled with anecdotes related to Cain’s legacy in San Francisco and features quotes from teammates Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey as well as pitching coach Dave Righetti, skipper Bruce Bochy and of course, Cain himself.
  • Dodgers left-hander Julio Urias underwent shoulder surgery to repair his left anterior capsule earlier this season, and FanRag’s Jon Heyman writes in his weekly NL Notes roundup that the procedure actually went better than expected. Per Heyman, Dr. Neal ElAttrache anticipates a full recovery for the highly touted 21-year-old, although Urias still appears to be facing a significant layoff. Dodgers president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman said at the time of the surgery (in late June) that a rehab period of 12 months was expected for Urias.
  • The progress of Colin Rea and Robbie Erlin, both rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, gives the Padres another pair of arms to add to next spring’s rotation battle, writes MLB.com’s A.J. Cassavell. Both pitchers joined the team in September (though not the active roster, to be clear) as they continue their rehab process. Erlin is facing live hitters and is throwing every fifth day, alternating between bullpen sessions and live batting practice. Rea, meanwhile, is up to five bullpen sessions and will keep throwing into mid-October before a six-week break. They’ll join any offseason additions as well as injured rotation hopefuls such as Matt Strahm, Christian Friedrich and Jarred Cosart in vying for starting jobs with the Friars next March.

Diamondbacks Acquire J.D. Martinez

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The Diamondbacks have made a massive move to upgrade their offense, acquiring outfielder J.D. Martinez from the Tigers in exchange for infield prospects Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara and Jose King. Both teams have announced the deal. There’s reportedly no cash changing hands in the deal, so the D-backs are on the hook for the $4.82MM that remains on Martinez’s $11.75MM salary.

J.D. Martinez | MLBTR Photoshop

In acquiring Martinez, the D-backs will be adding the very best rental bat on the market. The 29-year-old missed the first six weeks of the season due to a sprained ligament in his foot but has stormed back into the lineup with a .305/.388/.630 batting line and 16 homers through 232 plate appearances in 57 games. Arizona currently has Yasmany Tomas on the shelf and has been relying upon Daniel Descalso and Chris Herrmann to take at-bats in left field.

[Related: Updated Detroit Tigers depth chart and Arizona Diamondbacks depth chart]

By picking up Martinez, the Snakes will not only be massively upgrading their lineup, they’ll also be preventing one of their top division rivals and a potential Wild Card opponent, the Rockies, from acquiring the slugger. Colorado had also reportedly expressed interest in Martinez, but he’ll now slot into a D-backs lineup that already features the likes of Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, A.J. Pollock and David Peralta. Beyond that, though, the D-backs will add a drastically needed upgrade against left-handed pitching. Arizona ranks last in the Majors with a 65 wRC+ against lefties, and Martinez’s right-handed bat will be a significant boost.

From a defensive standpoint, Martinez won’t do the D-backs many favors, as he’s rated poorly in right field over the past couple of seasons, perhaps in part due to his foot troubles. (Martinez had graded out quite well in right as recently as 2015.) Then again, Tomas has regularly graded out as one of the game’s worst defenders in left field, while Descalso is an infielder that has been playing left out of necessity.

With Martinez set to be a free agent this offseason, the trade stands to benefit him as well. Because he’s been moved, he’ll no longer be eligible to receive a qualifying offer when the season is up, which should only strengthen his case on the open market.

Of the prospects in the deal, Lugo comes with the most fanfare. He entered the season ranked fourth among D-backs farmhands, according to Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. The 22-year-old is hitting .282/.325/.428 with seven homers, 21 doubles and four triples through 369 plate appearances in Double-A despite being a couple of years younger than the average age of his competition. He’s played shortstop and third base throughout his minor league career. Callis and Mayo note that he could project as a utility player, but he’s made enough strides recently that a future as a regular isn’t out of the question. Given his inclusion in the deal, the Tigers likely view Lugo as a potential regular at either one of those two positions.

Alcantara, also a middle infielder, ranked 15th among Arizona prospects on that same list prior to the season. He’s off to a .279/.344/.362 batting line with three homers, 15 doubles, a pair triples and 11 steals (albeit in 21 tries) in 378 PAs at Class-A Advanced. Also like Lugo, he’s rather young for his level, having turned 21 just last week. Callis and Mayo praise him as an outstanding defender and labeling him a “no-doubt-about-it shortstop.” He has the strongest arm in Arizona’s system, they add, and his glovework is so strong that he needn’t develop much as a hitter to be an everyday player in the Majors.

King, the youngest of the bunch at 18, recently opened his season in the Rookie-level Arizona League after spending the 2016 season in the Dominican Summer League. Baseball America’s Ben Badler ranked King among the best prospects in the DSL, praising his plus-plus speed and noting that he has 50-steal potential to go along with a compact swing and good bat speed. King is also an up-the-middle player and has split his time between shortstop and second base, though Badler notes that his slightly below average arm makes him a better fit at second base rather than shortstop.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com first said the two sides were close to a deal (Twitter link). Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported the deal was in place (on Twitter). Jon Heyman of FanRag and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports/MLB Network noted that the D-backs were sending multiple prospects to Detroit (Twitter links). Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic tweeted the prospects that were in the deal. Rosenthal tweeted that there’s no cash changing hands in the deal.

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