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J.D. Martinez

Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: 12/7/17

By Jeff Todd | December 7, 2017 at 10:38pm CDT

The market for Marlins star Giancarlo Stanton has been stagnant for a few days now. That could change at any moment, if Stanton green-lights one of the deal structures currently in place. And we’ve heard there’s some anticipation of some kind of resolution by the end of the week. But the longer things drag out, the more time and space there is for the existing top suitors to waver — and, perhaps, for others to enter the picture more clearly. It’s still not evident how this will all turn out, but there are some hints that the situation is not necessarily nearing resolution:

  • Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic offers an updated look at the market in a subscription piece, with some interesting tweaks on what has become the status quo. It’s well worth a full read. There seems to be a split of opinion among Rosenthal’s sources as to just where things stand with regard to the Giants and Cardinals, with some saying Stanton is disinclined to approve a trade to either organization and others insisting his “thinking is fluid.” Regardless, those two clubs likely won’t linger around waiting forever, particularly if they come to believe they aren’t going to be able to convince the star to approve a deal. Should that come to pass, says Rosenthal, the Fish will be in a tough spot. If there’s a way out (beyond hoping Stanton says yes to one of the existing suitors), it may come from engaging both the Dodgers and — yes — the Yankees, each of whom Rosenthal says are still “on the periphery.” And Rosenthal adds that Stanton is open to a move to the Bronx. Of course, both of those mega-market clubs are in the process of reining in long-burdened balance sheets; Rosenthal writes that Miami would need to hang onto some significant cash (or take on pricey veterans in return) to get something done and perhaps entice real prospect value.
  • Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio hears similarly to Rosenthal regarding the Los Angeles and New York organizations (via Twitter). And his colleague Craig Mish even suggests (links to Twitter) that Stanton has now given the Marlins more clarity than had previously been known, with a list of four teams to which he’d approve a deal. The Astros and Cubs — neither of whom have been linked substantially to Stanton — are said to be on this list along with the Dodgers and Yankees. While the Giants and Cardinals are not on this “preferred list,” as Mish terms it, Stanton was at least willing to hear their pitches. Ultimately, this leaves it unknown whether Stanton has been swayed in his initial thinking and does not really conflict with prior reporting that has indicated Stanton would maintain an open mind entering the process.
  • Jon Heyman of Fan Rag painted at least a somewhat different picture earlier today, writing that the Dodgers are a “long shot” for Stanton if a move is to happen in the near future, as their limited engagement to date would leave them with quite a bit of work to do to sort out an agreement. With some indication that Stanton could make some kind of decision on interest from the Giants and Cardinals by the end of the week, it does not seem as if the Dodgers are likely to swoop in — but, perhaps, could still enter the picture if Stanton declines to go to San Francisco or St. Louis. It’s worth noting, too, that Heyman recently broached the topic of the Yankees’ ongoing interest in Stanton.
  • Speaking of the Giants’ interest in Stanton, Heyman writes that chief executive officer Larry Baer was among those to meet with the reigning MLB home run king. The CEO was previously reported to have met with Ohtani, too, so he’s clearly getting involved personally in these highly significant decisions for the organization. Baer “loves” the reigning NL MVP, according to Heyman, who adds that a free-agent pursuit of J.D. Martinez is viewed as the Giants’ primary alternative to Stanton.
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Los Angeles Dodgers Miami Marlins New York Yankees San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Giancarlo Stanton J.D. Martinez

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Free Agent Profile: J.D. Martinez

By Kyle Downing | December 4, 2017 at 7:44pm CDT

Despite not accumulating enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, J.D. Martinez hit the third-most home runs of any player in baseball. Make no mistake, he’ll be paid for his power this winter.

Pros/Strengths

Since his breakout season with the Tigers, Martinez has been an incredible power asset. Over the past four seasons, the outfielder is 10th in MLB with 128 homers, despite having the second-fewest plate appearances of any player in the top 20 in that category. During that time, Martinez trails only Mike Trout in slugging percentage. He also ranks within the top five in wOBA and wRC+ during that stretch, with an even .300 batting average and .362 OBP, so it’s not as if he’s an all-or-nothing presence at the plate.

During the 2017 season, Martinez took his power to a new level. Across 489 plate appearances between the Tigers and the Diamondbacks, Martinez posted a whopping .690 slugging percentage, which would have led all of baseball by a full 59 points if he’d made enough trips to the plate to qualify for the slugging title. The power numbers he puts up are incredibly impressive and will motivate many teams to inquire on him.

It’s not just his power numbers that stick out, however. Those figures are just one by-product of Martinez’ true greatest strength: quality of contact. His whopping 49% hard contact rate led all of baseball last season, and only Aaron Judge had more barrels per plate appearance.  His 208-foot average batted ball distance ranked 10th among hitters with at least 250 batted ball events. His 90.8 MPH average exit velocity ranked 12th, while his 97.2 MPH average exit velocity on fly balls ranked 6th.

Cons/Weaknesses

Though Martinez’ power is absolutely elite, he comes with a slew of weaknesses that hurt his value and build in a frightening amount of risk. It all starts with his health; Martinez has missed significant time with injuries in each of the past two seasons. In fact, the outfielder has only qualified for the batting title once in his career; teams will certainly be somewhat skeptical about his ability to produce at his 2017 clip over a full season in 2018, let alone in future years as he ages.

One can’t completely ignore defense, either, and Martinez is a downright liability in the field. Fangraphs rated him the seventh-worst defensive player in baseball in 2017. His Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games was -14.8; that figure was the worst among all MLB outfielders. Defensive Runs Saved paints a slightly better picture, but his -5 DRS still ties him for 40th place out of 56 qualifying outfielders. If Martinez was even average defensively, he’d no doubt be one of the top ten most valuable players in baseball. As it stands, however, he’s outside the top 40 in WAR among hitters alone across a three-year sample size.

There’s also plenty of swing-and-miss in Martinez’ game, although it may not be a chief concern in today’s environment. His 26.2% strikeout rate was the 41st-highest among 216 MLB players with at least 400 plate appearances last year. Part of this stems from his 71.2% contact rate, which put him in the bottom eighth of baseball players in that category. It’s worth noting that Martinez improved his walk rate dramatically this year as well; his 10.8% walk rate put him in the 30th percentile. All told, high strikeout totals aren’t entirely uncommon for power hitters, but Martinez does have some of the poorest plate discipline among the elite power threats in the game. If we isolate the top 30 players in slugging percentage this past season, Martinez has the 6th-highest strikeout rate and 12th-lowest walk rate in that group.

The mediocre plate discipline is probably worth the trade-off for his avalanche of extra base hits, but it’s tough to know whether his swing will age well. Martinez and agent Scott Boras are reportedly seeking a contract above $200MM. While few in the industry think he’ll come close to that figure, the MLBTR team predicts he’ll earn something in the range of $150MM. If a win is worth roughly $9MM on the free agent market, one would think Martinez will need to provide somewhere close to 14 wins for his new team over the life of that contract, factoring in some inflation. Over the last century, only a handful of players have produced 14 WAR or more for their entire careers with a strikeout rate above 25% and a walk rate below 11%. Those players are Chris Davis, Ryan Howard, David Ross, Colby Rasmus and Melvin Upton Jr. None of them stands out as being particularly productive beyond his age 30 season. Of course, the game is trending in more of a strikeout-heavy direction these days, so perhaps that stat shouldn’t be observed with too much gravity.

Those readers interested in “clutch” hitters should know that Martinez hasn’t been good in high leverage situations. Since his breakout began at the start of the 2014 season, Martinez ranks dead last among 289 qualifying hitters with a -4.30 clutch rating via Fangraphs.

Background

With the number 611 overall pick in the 2009 draft (20th round), the Houston Astros selected Martinez out of Nova Southeastern University in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. He ascended quickly through the minor leagues, making his professional debut just two years later, performing as a roughly average major leaguer in half a season’s worth of at-bats. Things didn’t go well for Martinez across the next two seasons, however. He posted a .245/.295/.376 batting line from 2012-2013 and was ultimately released by Houston.

Although his career seemed all but over after being cut by a then-cellar-dwelling Astros team, the Tigers nabbed Martinez, who had spend the offseason overhauling his swing. Early into the 2014 season, it became clear that Detroit had picked up a completely different player than the sub-replacement level outfielder who had struggled with the Astros. Martinez went on to put together a .318/.358/.553 slash line en route to 4.0 WAR and a 154 wRC+ that year, and has produced fantastic offensive numbers ever since.

Market

As a right-handed power hitter, Martinez would be a welcome asset to the middle of any MLB team’s batting order. However, his price tag will put him firmly out of reach for the majority of teams in smaller markets. Furthermore, the length of the contract he’ll command might give pause to NL teams, who could be concerned that his already-poor defense will decline further with age. While that certainly doesn’t eliminate NL clubs, it does mean that AL clubs (who could play him at DH in the latter years of the contract) might be willing to offer a longer deal. As MLBTR has already noted in our Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions article, the Red Sox are a very good fit. The piece also mentions the Cardinals and Giants as suitors. I’d add the Yankees and Rangers to that list as well, though both would likely need to do some creative financial work to make it possible. Perhaps a few other surprise bidders could emerge.

Expected Contract

The $200MM+ contract Boras is seeking for Martinez isn’t realistic. MLBTR’s initial projection of $150MM over six years is more plausible. However, it’s become evident by now that teams are willing to be patient and wait out the free agent market. Going into last offseason, Yoenis Cespedes had a similar four-year WAR output, was just a year older, and had fewer health questions; he signed a four-year, $110MM contract. Based on that, it might be safer to predict a five-year deal for Martinez. I’m going to forecast exactly that, at a $135MM guarantee.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Detroit Tigers J.D. Martinez

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Poll: Which Free Agent Will Sign The Largest Contract?

By Kyle Downing | November 24, 2017 at 10:56pm CDT

The hot stove season has started off lukewarm, and we might not see a true rush of activity until the rumors surrounding NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton and Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani finally lead to resolutions of some kind. But when the dominoes start falling, we’re highly likely to see a few free agents sign nine-figure deals.

MLBTR released our annual Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions article early this month, and right-hander Yu Darvish sits atop the list with a predicted $160MM guarantee. Despite a career-low strikeout rate (and a well-documented implosion in the playoffs), Darvish remains an elite arm with a great track record of success, including an average of 3.80 fWAR across his five full MLB seasons. Though he hasn’t been quite the same since returning from Tommy John surgery last year, the Dodgers free agent starter still managed double-digit strikeouts per nine innings this past season while allowing only 2.80 walks per nine. In case there was any doubt about his durability following a major surgery, Darvish threw 186 2/3 innings in 2017, and added several more during L.A.’s playoff run. Of course, his famously horrific World Series performance leaves a stain on an otherwise solid campaign. That, along with a steady decline in his full-season ERA and xFIP across the past four campaigns, could potentially leave some of his suitors uneasy about signing him to a lengthy contract.

Even though J.D. Martinez didn’t qualify for the batting title in 2017, he still finished 44th in MLB with 3.8 fWAR. His .690 slugging percentage was the highest in baseball among players with at least 300 plate appearances, and a full 59 points higher than second-place Stanton. Since joining the Tigers in 2014, Martinez has mashed 128 homers, good for 10th in all of baseball across the past four years. He also ranks in the top ten in slugging percentage (2) and wRC+ (5) during that span. Agent Scott Boras is reportedly seeking a $210MM guarantee for Martinez, dubbing him “King Kong” and referencing his power and batting average numbers. Of course, Martinez comes with plenty of negatives as well. He’s only topped 500 plate appearances twice in his career. He’s also a defensive liability; Martinez has posted absolutely deplorable UZR, DRS and Inside Edge Fielding numbers over the past two years.

Eric Hosmer is the youngest of this group, having just turned 28 in October. He’s never logged fewer than 547 plate appearances in a full season, either. His relative youth and durability means he’s almost certain to get the longest contract, though that doesn’t mean the largest total guarantee. Interestingly, agent Scott Boras is trying to work his intangibles, such as clubhouse presence and media skills, into teams’ valuations of Hosmer. In 2017, Hosmer posted a career-high 4.1 fWAR and tied last year’s personal best with 25 homers. That he’s entering the free agent market following the best season of his career bodes well for him. However, his value could get dragged down by the fact that the free agent first base crop is particularly deep this year. If other first basemen sign quickly, Hosmer could lose suitors (and leverage) in a hurry, which could drive down his price.

What do you think? (Poll link for app users)

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Free Agent Market Eric Hosmer J.D. Martinez Yu Darvish

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East Notes: Jays, Orioles, Jeter, Rizzo

By Jeff Todd | November 21, 2017 at 8:33am CDT

It’s possible the Blue Jays could weigh a run at star free agent outfielder J.D. Martinez, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag writes. At the moment, that seems like a fairly tenuous connection; Heyman explains that the team has “at least considered” Martinez but may also be hesitant to participate in a bidding war to get him. But that’s more than we’ve heard of at least some other conceivable landing spots for the best hitter on this year’s open market; the Cardinals, for instance, are said not to have much inclination to pursue him.

Here’s more from the eastern divisions:

  • The Orioles nearly swung a trade last night with the Rockies, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. The organizations were discussing a deal in which Baltimore would pick up righty Konner Wade in exchange for international pool funds. Though nothing ended up getting done, Kubatko suggests it could still be a possibility. He also goes on to discuss the O’s decisions on protecting players from the Rule 5 draft, including a few names that could be targeted by other organizations.
  • Tim Healey of the Sun Sentinel takes an interesting look at Marlins CEO Derek Jeter’s crash course in running a baseball front office. Jeter has called the move “overwhelming” in the same way it was to finally reach the majors as a player, acknowledging he’ll have to “learn on the job” to a large extent. President of baseball ops Michael Hill suggests the two have established a good working relationship out of the gates. As ever, the proof will be in the doing; the Marlins made a small swap yesterday, but have much bigger fish to fry this winter.
  • While the Nationals front office has long been helmed by Mike Rizzo, his future with the organization is not assured at present. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post writes that Rizzo and ownership have yet to discuss a new deal. And the veteran executive says he isn’t going to be the one to kick off talks, saying he’ll “allow [ownership] to talk to me if they choose to” and noting that he’s comfortable entering the offseason without a long-term contract. Janes tackles some of the many facets to the situation in the post, which is worth a full read.
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Baltimore Orioles Colorado Rockies Miami Marlins Toronto Blue Jays Washington Nationals Derek Jeter J.D. Martinez Mike Rizzo

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NL West Notes: JDM, Chacin, Stammen, Hosmer, Diamondbacks

By Steve Adams | November 17, 2017 at 12:52pm CDT

Scarcely a day goes by in which the Giants are not linked to Giancarlo Stanton on multiple occasions, but John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that San Francisco is also considering the other top right-handed slugger that is available this offseason: J.D. Martinez. It’s not clear if the Giants have sat down with agent Scott Boras, and Shea is careful to note that the Giants are internally discussing a wide number of options to improve their offense. Martinez would represent the most aggressive means of doing so on the free-agent market. He’ll command fewer years and dollars than the remaining decade and $295MM on Stanton’s contract, though Boras is reportedly seeking a sky-high $210MM over seven years early in the offseason. (Martinez will quite likely sign for less than that, as early asking prices are always on the high side for any free agent.)

Working against the Giants is a payroll that is already dangerously close to the luxury tax barrier and that Martinez doesn’t help the Giants’ stated goals of improving the outfield defense or getting better in center field.

More on the from the division…

  • The Padres are interested in reunions with right-handers Jhoulys Chacin and Craig Stammen, general manager A.J. Preller told reporters at this week’s GM Meetings (link via MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell). “From our standpoint, it’s about seeing how the next couple weeks play out,” said Preller. “They’re two guys we have interest in bringing back. We’ve got to see if we line up financially.” Cassavell reports that the Friars would consider a multi-year deal for either pitcher, though such a contract would likely need to come with a discounted second year. San Diego has a number of arms rising through the system and may not relish the idea of blocking those arms, though from my vantage point having either Chacin or Stammen around at an affordable rate is a good problem to have if all parties are performing well.
  • In a separate pair of Padres columns, Cassavell characterizes their interest in Eric Hosmer as little more than due diligence, while Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears a bit differently and reports that their interest goes “beyond the cursory level.” Cassavell notes that the Padres have kicked the tires on roughly 50 free agents thus far (most of them pitchers) as they look to get a full picture of the free-agent market. Lin, meanwhile, suggests that the Padres may be intrigued both by Hosmer’s intangible leadership qualities and by his 25-homer output despite being an extreme ground-ball hitter. A willingness to amend that approach and put the ball in the air more often could yield untapped power; I’d imagine that the Padres, who call spacious Petco Park their home, are also intrigued by the pop that Hosmer showed in his own cavernous home park (Kauffman Stadium) in spite of an approach that isn’t traditionally conducive to power.
  • The D-backs have added Jason Parks to their front office as their new director of pro scouting, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports (via Twitter). Parks, who many readers may remember from his excellent work at Baseball Prospectus, has been with the Cubs as a scout and a special assistant since 2014. He’ll join an increasingly youthful Arizona front office that is led by GM Mike Hazen and assistant GMs Jared Porter and Amiel Sawadaye. Notably, Parks’ role as director of pro scouting will be the same one that Porter filled with the Cubs when he and Parks were colleagues in Chicago.
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Arizona Diamondbacks San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Craig Stammen Eric Hosmer J.D. Martinez Jason Parks Jhoulys Chacin

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Heyman’s Latest: Moore, Cain, Rangers, Vargas/O’s, Rodney/D-Backs

By Jeff Todd | November 16, 2017 at 11:17pm CDT

In his latest Inside Baseball column, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag looks into the Royals front office. Owner David Glass is “considering a possible two-year extension” for GM Dayton Moore, writes Heyman, even though Moore has “no leverage” given that he’s already under contract for three more seasons. This all arises after Glass declined to allow the Braves to speak with Moore about changing squads. While Moore has expressed gratitude to ownership, his recent comments were interesting, if difficult to interpret with any precision. All told, it seems there could still be some unresolved matters in the Kansas City front office.

Let’s look at a few more items from Heyman of particular relevance to the still-developing hot stove season:

  • Top free agent center fielder Lorenzo Cain has drawn some early interest from the Mets and Giants, according to Heyman. As regards the New York organization, this information seems to conflict with recent statements from Mets GM Sandy Alderson — though as ever it’s worth taking things with a grain of salt and acknowledging fluidity this time of year. As for the Giants, we at MLBTR pegged San Francisco as the likeliest landing spot for Cain, though some doubt whether the organization will go over the luxury tax line and sacrifice draft choices to land him. At a minimum, though, the organization would seem to be wise to do some diligence on the possibility.
  • The Rangers have “looked into” free agent righties Lance Lynn and Tyler Chatwood, says Heyman. While it’s not clear just how serious the interest is, the link isn’t surprising. Texas clearly needs arms; indeed, MLBTR guessed they’d land Lynn. While Chatwood doesn’t have nearly the track record of results that Lynn does, he is an intriguing option in his own right and shares some of the characteristics of Andrew Cashner — the former Ranger free agent signee who is himself back on the open market.
  • Another team with a desire to add several starters (and with reputed interest in Chatwood) is the Orioles. The Baltimore front office met with agents for lefty Jason Vargas during the GM Meetings, Heyman reports. The 34-year-old veteran seems to be a good match for the O’s, as we predicted, since the team needs to find so many rotation innings and can’t afford to make major long-term commitments to multiple starters.
  • The Diamondbacks are “open” to bringing back Fernando Rodney, GM Mike Hazen tells Heyman. Arizona is facing a difficult payroll situation but obviously will be looking to maintain and improve upon a Wild Card-winning roster. Though Rodney didn’t dominate last year, he’s still throwing mid-nineties heat and generating quite a few swings and misses — and obviously met with the approval of the D-Backs’ brass in the closer’s role. Beyond improving the pen, the Arizona priority is to improve in the outfield, per the report. That could mean pursuing under-the-radar additions; though Hazen says he’s not ruling out a return for J.D. Martinez, that’d almost certainly require the kind of payroll increase that does not appear to be under consideration.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Kansas City Royals New York Mets San Francisco Giants Texas Rangers Dayton Moore Fernando Rodney J.D. Martinez Jason Vargas Lance Lynn Lorenzo Cain Tyler Chatwood

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Latest On Cardinals’ Offseason Targets

By Jeff Todd | November 15, 2017 at 12:57pm CDT

The Cardinals have discussed closer Alex Colome in trade talks with the Rays, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter). St. Louis has an opening at the back of its bullpen, among other needs, after releasing Trevor Rosenthal following Tommy John surgery.

Colome is one of many names I raised recently as theoretical possibilities in addressing the Cards’ closer opening. He’s only projected to earn $5.5MM and can be retained for two additional seasons through the arbitration process. And there’s no question he can handle the pressures of the ninth inning, having secured 84 saves over the past two seasons.

Of course, as the above link shows, there are quite a few other options as well. And Colome’s record is not spotless. While he led the American League in saves last year, he also failed to match his output from the prior campaign. After carrying a 1.91 ERA with 11.3 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 2016, Colome sported a 3.24 ERA in 2017 with only 7.8 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 in 2017.

It’s also not yet clear just how the Rays will proceed. There have been calls for some kind of rebuild, which the organization is evidently at least willing to consider. Should the team decide it is willing to part with Colome or other veteran assets, though, it seems likely that it’ll demand quality young talent at or near the majors in return.

Generally, the Cardinals have quite a few routes they could still go. The team is looking, especially, to improve the back of the pen and bolster its offense. With numerous controllable position players to dangle in trades, as well as some payroll capacity to work with, the Cards will be looking to craft a path to addressing all of their desires as efficiently as possible.

In seeking a major bat, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the team “has no interest” in pursuing free agent J.D. Martinez. Beyond their well-known interest in some Marlins targets, the Cards are also chatting internally about the possibility of going after free agent Carlos Gonzalez, who will surely be available for less (in terms of contract amount assumed and prospect capital) than would the others.

Meanwhile, the St. Louis organization is considering some tinkering with existing players. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak says he has informed Dexter Fowler that he could be shifted to left field in favor of Tommy Pham. And Matt Carpenter may be asked to move around in a utility role, though the expectation would be that he’d get near-everyday time.

Similarly, the Cardinals are also weighing how best to handle their pitching staff, as Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Righty Alex Reyes, who will be returning from Tommy John surgery, could be slowed down to open the season and work from the bullpen, Mozeliak suggested. The club might also boost its relief corps by utilizing Sandy Alcantara there, though he’ll likely stretch out in camp. These hurlers will surely factor into the construction of the bullpen, though their presence obviously does not obviate the need for new arms — especially in the ninth inning.

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Miami Marlins St. Louis Cardinals Tampa Bay Rays Alex Colome Alex Reyes Carlos Gonzalez Dexter Fowler J.D. Martinez Matt Carpenter Sandy Alcantara Tommy Pham

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J.D. Martinez Reportedly Seeking $210MM Deal

By Steve Adams | November 14, 2017 at 7:24pm CDT

Nov. 14: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that Boras and Martinez have set an early asking price of $210MM over the life of a seven-year term.

Nov. 8: Teams that have spoken to agent Scott Boras about new client J.D. Martinez have come away with the impression that Boras and Martinez are seeking a deal in the vicinity of $200MM in total guarantees, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Martinez hired Boras as his new representative just days before the free-agent period began.

It’s a jarring number to see associated with the 30-year-old Martinez, though he certainly helped his case with an otherworldly season at the plate. Though Martinez missed the first five-plus weeks of the season due to a ligament injury in his foot, he nonetheless swatted 45 home runs in a career year at the plate. On the whole, Martinez slashed a ridiculous .303/.376/.690 with a career-high 10.8 percent walk rate through 489 plate appearances between the Tigers and D-backs.

In addition to his newfound plate discipline, Martinez’s 49 percent hard-contact rate was the best in the Majors of any player with at least 450 plate appearances. That stat may even undersell the extent to which he impressed in that regard; the next-highest percentage was Joey Gallo’s mark of 46.4 percent. Statcast data pegged Martinez’s average exit velocity of 90.8 mph 15th among players that put at least 100 balls in play this past season, and he ranked third in the league in barrel percentage and tied for fourth in total number of barreled balls despite the early-season layoff.

There’s little point in doubting Martinez’s status as an elite bat after his impressive four-year run between Detroit and Arizona, but he still comes with plenty of red flags. Martinez has tallied 1973 innings in right field over the past two seasons and turned in an awful mark of -27 Defensive Runs Saved (though 2017’s mark of -5 was a noted improvement over 2016’s ghastly -22). Ultimate Zone Rating is similarly down on his glovework, rating him 25 runs below average. Statcast’s new Outs Above Average metricT suggested that Martinez converted five fewer outs than an average defensive outfielder would have in 2017. That he’s missed 85 games over the past two years due to injury and will turn 31 next August both figure to limit his earning capacity to some degree as well.

We ranked Martinez as the No. 2 free agent on the market this winter and pegged him for a six-year, $150MM deal. If Boras’ aim is to secure a $200MM payday for his newest client, though, he’ll need to broker a deal of at least seven years in length — if not eight. While that’s difficult to envision, it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Both Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo landed seven year contracts in their recent trips through free agency, with Choo’s contract beginning in his age-31 campaign. A seven-year contract for Martinez is not outside the realm of possibility, though it also goes without saying that any agent would aim high entering free agency. While Martinez should have no shortage of teams with interest, there are very few clubs that can realistically afford to pay him at that level.

Boras spoke to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic about Martinez’s free-agent case and specifically referenced the free agencies of Ellsbury and Choo — both his clients — as well as fellow Boras clients Matt Holliday, Jayson Werth and Carlos Beltran. Boras indicated that he feels Martinez, who hit 40+ homers this season and has established himself as a .300 hitter, is a cut above that group (and above more recent cases like Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton) while entering free agency at a similar age. “It’s a very rare place. It’s a unique place,” said Boras. “…all of these guys that are at this level, they’re really good players. None of them were in the 45 [homer] and .300 [average] category.”

Asked whether he felt the Diamondbacks could be a realistic landing spot in free agency, Boras unsurprisingly suggested that he firmly believes that to be the case.

“You don’t sign Greinke and not sign this guy,” said Boras in a reference to Zack Greinke’s six-year, $206.5MM contract with the D-backs. “I mean, once you drop in the pool, you’re in the water. Once you’re in the water, it’s kind of hard to say you’re not wet.” Boras called D-backs owner Ken Kendrick a “competitive owner” and suggested that the onus will fall on Kendrick to increase payroll or find a way to fit the slugger onto the team’s books moving forward. Piecoro’s column is full of quotes from the polarizing Boras and is well worth a full read.

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Crasnick’s Latest: Stanton, Ohtani, JDM, Darvish, Royals, McCutchen

By Steve Adams | November 13, 2017 at 9:20am CDT

In this year’s edition of his annual Hot Stove survey (an always-excellent read), ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick surveyed 40 front office execs and scouts from around the league on nine offseason issues as this week’s GM Meetings kick off. Among the topics discussed, at length, are the possibility of a Giancarlo Stanton trade (and his likeliest destination), where Japanese star Shohei Ohtani will land, how much J.D. Martinez can command in free agency, and whether Yu Darvish’s poor World Series showing hampered his free-agent stock. Crasnick also polled the 40 baseball ops/scouting minds on multiple groups of free agents and trade candidates, asking which will provide the most value and which are likeliest to be dealt.

If you follow the offseason even loosely, you’ll want to be sure to read through the entire column, which is packed with quotes and insight from general managers, scouts and other front-office executives on the players in question and their potential landing spots. Some abbreviated highlights…

  • Three quarters of the respondents indicated that they expect Stanton to be traded this offseason, with nearly a third listing the Cardinals as the likeliest landing spot. The Giants were the second-most popular spot, though one scout tells Crasnick he has a difficult time envisioning that match, calling the Giants a “bottom-five farm system.” One respondent who felt Stanton would stay in Miami suggests to Crasnick that the Marlins may be underestimating just how much of the contract they’ll need to pay down.
  • The Yankees and Dodgers split the vote on the surveyed group’s likeliest destinations for Ohtani, with the Rangers not far behind. Several other clubs received a few votes, and four of the 40 respondents suggested that they believed Ohtani would remain with the Nippon Ham Fighters in 2018. There’s still some work to be done with the league, the players’ union and Nippon Professional Baseball before the posting process can begin in earnest. The agreement between MLB and NPB on the current iteration of the posting system expired this offseason.
  • The Red Sox were the overwhelming favorite when it came to the question of Martinez’s next team, though expectations for his contract varied in size. One GM pegged Martinez at around six years and $140MM, Crasnick notes. Some execs felt he’d fall closer to Justin Upton’s $106MM guarantee.
  • Only three of the 40 respondents thought that Darvish’s pair of World Series meltdowns would have a substantial impact on his offseason earning capacity. Crasnick’s piece has plenty of insightful quotes on Darvish — more than any other player — from the scouts that were polled. An AL scout tells Crasnick that 15 years ago, the World Series might’ve hurt Darvish, but in a largely sabermetric environment, his late struggles are a “void blip in the radar.”
  • Crasnick also asked respondents which of the Royals’ big three free agents (Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain) would provide the best value on his next deal, which of Carlos Gomez or Carlos Gonzalez had a better chance of reestablishing himself as a star, and which major 2018-19 free agent among Andrew McCutchen, Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado is likeliest to be traded this winter. I found it somewhat of a surprise to see Hosmer as the decisive favorite in that Royals question, though many scouts praised his glovework despite poor reviews from defensive metrics. McCutchen, less surprisingly, was deemed likeliest of his trio to go, while Gonzalez topped Gomez handily in their own respective face-off.
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Boston Red Sox Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Dodgers Miami Marlins New York Yankees San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Texas Rangers Andrew McCutchen Carlos Gomez Carlos Gonzalez Eric Hosmer Giancarlo Stanton J.D. Martinez Josh Donaldson Lorenzo Cain Manny Machado Mike Moustakas Shohei Ohtani Yu Darvish

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Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: Sunday

By Connor Byrne | November 12, 2017 at 10:29am CDT

Heading into the upcoming week’s general managers meetings, Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton ranks as the majors’ best on-the-block player. Here are the latest rumblings involving the 27-year-old National League MVP hopeful:

  • Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reported Saturday that Boston is “definitely in play” for Stanton, but sources tell Jon Heyman of FanRag that the Red Sox don’t look like the front-runners for him at the moment. Rather, the Sox are more focused on other players, including free agent outfielder J.D. Martinez, per Heyman.
  • The Cardinals, who have discussed Stanton with the Marlins, are “determined” in their interest, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The two clubs expect to continue their Stanton talks at the meetings, according to Goold, who adds that the Cardinals also have Marlins closer Brad Ziegler on their radar. The 38-year-old Ziegler is due $9MM in 2018, and it’s fair to surmise that the payroll-slashing Marlins would like to remove as much of his money as possible from their books.
  • Stanton has also piqued San Francisco’s interest, though the Marlins are bearish on the Giants’ farm system and don’t believe the team could put together a satisfactory package for the slugger, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle relays. So, to increase their odds of acquiring Stanton, the Giants would have to commit to taking on more of his enormous contract than a team with better prospects, Shea contends. That would seemingly be problematic for the Giants, who don’t want to spend past the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018 and already have significant money on their books.
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Boston Red Sox Miami Marlins San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Brad Ziegler Giancarlo Stanton J.D. Martinez

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