The Brewers’ Infield Picture
Those following the Brewers at a distance may not have paid much attention to their tempered approach to the offseason. It’s easy to look at their winter and see a modest collection of stopgaps to stanch the roster bleed of departing vets like Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas. Look a littler closer, however, and you’ll find President of Baseball Ops and GM David Stearns created a two-year window of flexible and affordable contracts to keep Craig Counsell‘s squad in contention, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
With Christian Yelich and Josh Hader, the Brew Crew have some of the best high-end talent in the game, but they’ve done a nice job filling out the infield with one-and-one contracts for Brock Holt, Eric Sogard, Justin Smoak, and Jedd Gyorko. Along with trade acquisition Luis Urias, the Brewers found a grab bag of roster pieces to power their infield engine in a wide-open NL Central. Holdovers Keston Hiura and Orlando Arcia join the extensive group of infielders vying for playing time.
Though Arcia is still just 25-years-old and has notched some big performances for the Brewers in recent seasons, his grip on everyday at-bats is loosening. Urias’ injury has provided Arcia with a last-ditch opportunity to prove his mettle. He certainly brings attitude and flair to the diamond, but two seasons of a .228/.277/.333 line dims the outlook on Arcia’s offensive potential for sure. Still, of the newcomers in the clubhouse, only Urias really threatens Arcia’s everyday status at short.
Of all rostered Brewers not named Yelich, Hiura has the highest ceiling. Thus, the onus lies largely (if unfairly) on his shoulders to make up the offensive production left behind by Grandal and Moustakas (who put up a combined 7 oWAR last season per baseball-reference). He put up a robust .303/.368/.570 line in just 84 games as a 22-year-old after being called up last season (139 wRC+). His power numbers have fluctuated throughout his professional career, but the hit tool has consistently played, and the Brewers are counting on Hiura to do some damage from the middle of their order.
The final piece of the infield puzzle for Counsell is long-time face-of-the-franchise Ryan Braun. Braun could see a majority of his time at first base with Avisail Garcia and Ben Gamel lining up with Yelich and Lorenzo Cain in the outfield. The exact formula for the rest of the lineup has no shortage of variables, but Counsell has proven himself an adept engineer. Importantly for Milwaukee, if any of the newly-acquired pieces fail to meld, they’ve maintained the flexibility, financially and structurally, to pivot.
Quick Hits: Puig, Arbitration Process, Royals, Montgomery
The status of top remaining free agent Yasiel Puig remains up in the air as Spring Training baseball kicks off today. The mercurial and ever-entertaining pugilist got everyday at-bats in 2019 after a couple years of more judicious playing time with the Dodgers – but the results don’t have teams lined up with contract offers. Puig hit .267/.327/.458 across 611 plate appearances with the Reds and Indians with 24 home runs and 84 RBIs. Puig’s singular personality makes his on-field contributions just a part of the overall package, but even after a year of modest production (101 wRC+), Puig ought to be able to find a job somewhere. Latest reports have the White Sox and Rockies as potential landing spots for Puig, per Hector Gomez of Deportivo Z 101. The Athletic’s Nick Groke downplays the Rockies interest (via Twitter), however.
- CAA agent Jeff Berry lost two arbitration cases this week. Arbitration panels chose the team award amount in cases for J.T. Realmuto and Josh Hader, two transformative performers trying to make their cases to earn beyond the scope of their positional historical comps, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Said Berry of the proceedings, “This was about two guys (Hader and Realmuto) willing to go to the mat to fight for what’s right, and hopefully other players take notice.” It’s possible to look at the results and presume that Berry overestimated his cases for both superstars (within the confines of the current system). It’s surely a fine line between fighting for the best result in an uneven system and politicking for change. Either way, the arbitration panel could use some work. Rosenthal brought a particularly interesting point to the foreground, noting that either the players’ union or MLB “can unilaterally fire any arbitrator at any time.” That’s certainly an inflection point for turning a supposedly unbiased system into one rife for manipulation.
- After trading for Cubs’ swingman Mike Montgomery in July, the Royals believe he can reach another gear when settled into a starting role, per Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star. The Cubs thought the same thing when they acquired Montgomery in the middle of 2016. Though the Cubs never found consistent work for Montgomery in the rotation, he played an important role as a swingman for Chicago. And of course, never forget, he earned the save in game seven of the 2016 World Series. Not for nothing, but Montgomery has desired a rotation slot for some time now, and it could be that the consistency and trust the Royals plan on giving him in his role will have the desired effect – but only time will tell. In 13 starts after the trade last season, Montgomery went 2-7 with a 4.64 ERA/5.23 FIP while striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings.
Josh Hader Discusses Arbitration Defeat
Brewers reliever Josh Hader just barely earned Super Two status this offseason, setting him up to take four trips through arbitration instead of three. Hader then filed for a $6.4MM salary – a far cry from the $4.1MM the Brewers proposed. The decision on the case came down Friday, and the Brewers emerged as the victors. Even in defeat, Hader’s now set to make significantly more than he’d have hauled in had he not gotten to arbitration this early. But this loss will negatively affect Hader’s earning power in future years, and he’d like to see a change in the system.
Speaking on Friday, the 25-year-old left-hander said (via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com): “We definitely knew that we were the underdogs going into it. But it’s something that needs to be put out there: Baseball’s always changing, and we’re at a point now that we’re continuing to change, and I think the system needs to change with that. You can see it in baseball now — a lot of relievers aren’t in certain roles that they once were.”
Hader added that the current arbitration setup is “outdated” with respect to reliever usage, and it’s difficult to argue against that. The present system puts a great deal of emphasis on racking up saves and holds, which doesn’t seem fair to dominant relievers who aren’t just used in those spots (Hader, for example). Hader does have 49 saves and 39 holds since he debuted in 2017 (including 37 and six in those respective categories in 2019), but the Brewers utilized him in various high-leverage situations in his first two seasons, thereby hurting his counting stats. That tactic, while perhaps wise on the team’s part, didn’t do Hader any favors in his initial arbitration hearing.
No matter how they’ve used him, Hader has been lights-out. A two-time All-Star and a back-to-back NL Reliever of the Year winner, Hader owns a superb 2.42 ERA/2.74 FIP with 15.35 K/9 and 3.17 BB/9 through 204 career 2/3 innings. Furthermore, he has regularly recorded more than three outs per appearance. Given Hader’s excellence to date and Friday’s results, he’s not unreasonable to contend that the arbitration process is behind the times for those in his position.
Brewers Defeat Josh Hader In Arbitration
The Brewers have won their arbitration case against lefty relief ace Josh Hader, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). He’ll receive the $4.1MM that the team presented rather than the $6.4MM salary he had sought.
This is a significant win for the team side. For the Brewers, specifically, it not only means immediate savings but sets the team up to pay quite a lot less in each of the three remaining seasons of team control.
More broadly, this case now joins the Dellin Betances ruling in tamping down arbitration leverage for exceptional relief pitchers who have not accumulated a large number of saves. It has been a good winter for teams generally, as they’ve taken six of seven arbitration hearings thus far after the players scored some wins last offseason.
Hader, 25, will not earn as much as he had hoped. But he’ll still do much better throughout his arbitration years than would’ve been expected at the time of his initial promotion to the majors. Most of that is due to his excellent work on the field, of course, but he also did not seem in line for Super Two status. Hader just did sneak in to early arb qualification owing to this year’s unusually low service-time cutoff.
The Brewers have received quite a few good innings from Hader over the past three years. In 204 2/3 total frames, he carries a 2.42 ERA with 15.3 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9. He was homer-prone last year but otherwise remained all but impossible to square up. The flamethrower finished the season with a personal-best 6.90 K/BB ratio.
2020 Arbitration Filing Numbers
MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.
After a busy day of dealmaking, 161 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 29 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint. It’s hardly an unusual number of unresolved cases at this stage, but there are quite a few high-dollar situations still at issue and teams have increasingly adopted a “file-and-trial” approach to the process in recent years. (That is, no negotiations on single-season salaries after the deadline to exchange figures.)
We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:
- George Springer, Astros: $22.5MM versus $17.5MM (Jeff Passan of ESPN.com, via Twitter)
- J.T. Realmuto, Phillies: $12.4MM versus $10MM (Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly, via Twitter)
- Trevor Story, Rockies: $11.5MM versus $10.75MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Joc Pederson, Dodgers: $9.5MM versus $7.75MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox: $8.975MM versus $8.3MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Nick Ahmed, Diamondbacks: $6.95MM versus $6.6MM (Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, via Twitter)
- Shane Greene, Braves: $6.75MM versus $6.25MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Josh Hader, Brewers: $6.4MM versus $4.1MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Chris Taylor, Dodgers: $5.8MM versus $5.25MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Hector Neris, Phillies: $5.2MM versus $4.25MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Max Muncy, Dodgers: $4.675MM versus $4MM (Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, via Twitter)
- Jose Berrios, Twins: $4.4MM versus $4.025MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox: $4.15MM versus $3.4MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Archie Bradley, Diamondbacks: $4.1MM versus $3.625MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Pedro Baez, Dodgers: $4.0MM versus $3.5MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
Arbitration Breakdown: Josh Hader
Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.
Josh Hader just barely qualified for early arbitration eligibility as a Super Two, significantly boosting his career earning outlook. He did so on the heels of his first season as a full-time closer. Hader saved 37 games in 2019, after saving just 12 games in his career beforehand. However, Hader has consistently pitched in high leverage innings, accumulating 39 career holds, and has put up phenomenal strikeout numbers and a low ERA. In less than three full seasons, Hader has struck out 349 hitters in 240.2 innings and put up a 2.42 ERA. My model projects him to earn $4.6MM in his run through arbitration.
A typical comparable for Hader would be someone who had a full platform year as a closer, but only limited saves prior to that, while having a lower ERA and a lot of strikeouts. The closest comparable is probably Ken Giles two years ago. He had 34 platform saves (to Hader’s 37) and 65 career saves (to Hader’s 49). He struck out 336 hitters in his career, but just 83 in his platform year. Hader struck out 349 in his career, but had 138 in his platform year. Giles’ 2.30 platform year ERA was similar to Hader’s 2.62, and his career 2.43 ERA was almost exactly spot on Hader’s 2.42. Giles earned $4.6MM. Overall it is not clear which of Giles or Hader should earn more, which means the $4.6MM projection to match Giles is probably about right.
This is reinforced by the fact that the other three players in the last five years with 30 saves in their platform year and between 40 and 65 saves in their career all earned between $4.1 and $4.2MM, each back in 2016. Those were Hector Rendon, Cody Allen, and Jeurys Familia. They all had ERA in the mid 2’s as well, ranging from 2.42 to 2.82.
The one thing that sticks out about Hader beyond that list is his very high strikeout rate. That distinguishes him from all of these other relievers who fell short of triple-digit strikeouts in their platform year. Hader’s 138 strikeouts topped all four aforementioned closers.
Another avenue could be to ignore old-fashioned stats like saves and holds and see if anyone else has similar strikeout numbers out of the bullpen. Ultimately, this was limited. I looked for any reliever in the last five years who entered arbitration for the first time with at least 120 strikeouts in their platform year and 300 in their career. That only yielded Dellin Betances, who earned $3MM three years ago, despite only 22 career saves. (That came after he lost a high-stakes hearing in which he sought $5MM.) That would certainly provide a floor, but it is clear that Hader should be well above this anyway.
Ultimately, I think it is safe to assume he lands close to his $4.6MM projection. I could see some upside if his strikeouts are considered more heavily, but since relievers generally get paid based on saves and holds, I do not think he will exceed his projection by much.
Pitching Rumors: Ryu, Leclerc, Betances, Hader, Thor
Earlier this week, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register and other reporters that he has discussed a new deal for Hyun-Jin Ryu with agent Scott Boras. For now, though, Ryu’s under the impression his longtime club isn’t particularly interested in bringing him back. “If the Dodgers wanted to re-sign me, they would have told my agent,” the left-hander said (via Yonhap News Agency). “I haven’t heard from him yet, and honestly, I don’t have much to tell you right now.” Ryu and Madison Bumgarner, another potential Dodgers target, represent the two best free-agent starters left in a market that has lost Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg over the past few days. Should the Dodgers fail to sign either of them, it’s unclear where they’ll turn if they’re determined to land another high-end starter.
- Rangers right-handed reliever Jose Leclerc is generating “a lot of interest” from other clubs, Levi Weaver of The Athletic tweets. That said, it’s not known whether the Rangers are open to trading their most valuable reliever – whom they signed to a team-friendly extension last offseason. The hard-throwing Leclerc, 25, is controllable for five more seasons (including two club options) and is only due a guaranteed $12.25MM over the rest of his deal. That’s one of the reasons he’d likely bring back a quality haul in a trade, which could create a conundrum for general manager Jon Daniels.
- It appears increasingly likely that reliever Dellin Betances‘ time with the Yankees is up. There’s no “active dialogue” between the Yankees and the free-agent righty’s camp, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. The 31-year-old Betances was excellent as a Yankee until injuries derailed him in 2019, when he faced a total of two batters. It seems the Yankees have turned their attention to another established reliever, Brewers lefty Josh Hader, whom they’re reportedly pursuing on the trade market. But Sherman throws a bit of cold water on that, writing that the two teams “did not seem to have substantial traction” in talks as the Winter Meetings wrapped up.
- The Mets just added two starters in Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha, giving them at least viable rotation candidates. Those somewhat modest signings won’t affect righty Noah Syndergaard‘s place on the team’s roster, though. GM Brodie Van Wagenen continues to insist the Mets are not going to trade Syndergaard, Sherman relays. In fact, with Jacob deGrom, Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz, Porcello and Wacha as the Mets’ top six starters, Van Wagenen’s of the belief that they have the deepest rotation in baseball.
Yankees, Dodgers, Mets Reportedly In Market For Josh Hader
With the top end of the relief market going off the board early, teams looking for elite pen arms have been eyeing trade possibilities. The most intriguing of those: star Brewers lefty Josh Hader, who was recently reported to have been made available in talks. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently updated the market situation (subscription link).
Left-handed American League East hitters will be particularly distraught to learn that the Yankees “have been the most active pursuer” of Hader. The Yanks already possess two dynamic southpaws in Aroldis Chapman and Zack Britton. Having already brought in Chapman and Gerrit Cole this offseason, a move for Hader would make a stunning trifecta of high-powered arms.
Other clubs have also put in calls to Brewers GM David Stearns. The list includes the Dodgers and Mets, according to Rosenthal. No doubt a variety of other organizations are also checking in to see whether it might be possible to structure a mutually agreeable trade. Hader could take over as a traditional closer or function as a roving high-leverage out-getter, as suits a given team’s preferences.
Hader’s appeal lies not only in his strikeout-producing left arm, but also his age (26 in April) and contract rights. He’s controllable for four more seasons through the arbitration process. Those won’t come cheap, as Hader projects to earn $4.6MM as a Super Two and could yet attempt to argue for more in a high-stakes hearing. (A prior attempt to shake up the arb system for relievers didn’t work out for Dellin Betances, though Hader has more saves to his record.) Still, it’s a far sight shy of what it would cost to acquire a similar pitcher on the open market — not that it’s even possible to do so.
NL Central Notes: Stearns, Hader, Pirates, Reds
Let’s take a look at the latest from around the NL Central…
- “Frankly, at this point, we don’t think too much about that,” Brewers GM David Stearns told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter video link), MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, and other reporters when asked what pitchers are currently penciled into the starting rotation. As usual, the Brew Crew will be flexible as possible in deciding which pitchers start games and how many innings they’ll accumulate, with Stearns citing Brandon Woodruff, Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser, Freddy Peralta, and Corbin Burnes as hurlers with starting experience. Peralta and Burnes will indeed still get consideration for starting jobs, Stearns said, though both struggled in the role last season. This isn’t to say that rotation additions couldn’t still be made, and relief help could also come later in the offseason, Stearns said. Milwaukee had interest in re-signing both free agent Jordan Lyles and the non-tendered Junior Guerra before the two pitchers respectively signed with the Rangers and Diamondbacks.
- Eyebrows were raised earlier this week at reports that the Brewers were open to trade offers for superstar reliever Josh Hader. While Stearns didn’t deny the report or dismiss the idea of a Hader deal, he naturally didn’t give any hint about how much desire his club actually had in moving Hader, only saying that “I think we consider him the best reliever in baseball right now.” Obviously, it would take a major offer to land Hader, who is controlled via arbitration through the 2023 season as a Super Two player.
- Since Jacob Stallings is the only catcher on the Pirates‘ 40-man roster, it isn’t any shock that GM Ben Cherington told media members (including Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic) that the Bucs are looking to upgrade the catching corps “in some ways.” Biertempfel notes that Cherington was “emphasizing the plural,” meaning that Pittsburgh will look to add multiple catchers for both the big league club and the farm system.
- With so much action on the free agent market so far, “I personally feel like there’s less trade activity likely to happen at the Winter Meetings than in prior years,” Reds president of baseball operations Dick Williams told the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters. “I think that’s the trend and I feel like other baseball front offices…feel like it’s gotten to the point where with all the other stuff that’s going on, it’s a time to continue conversations, but it’s really hard to push things across the finish line from a trade perspective.” The Reds have already one major free agent splash in signing Mike Moustakas and have been linked to several other big names, though while Williams “would say it’s entirely possible” Cincinnati makes another signing during the Meetings, “there is not one that I would say is likely to happen yet….I don’t have one that is closing in on a physical or something.”
Latest On Brewers’ Offseason Plans
Having already trimmed a laundry list of notable players from their 40-man roster — some through free agency, others via trade, yet more through non-tender — the Brewers now face a wide open remaining offseason. Just what course it’ll take isn’t really evident from the outside; no doubt it’s also something of a mystery from within.
It emerged recently that the Brewers are actively engaged in trade discussions regarding ace reliever Josh Hader. It’s not a given he’ll be dealt, but that’s now a distinct (and somewhat surprising) possibility for a repeat postseason team.
Hader isn’t the only veteran who has been bandied about in talks. The club is also amenable to discussing center fielder Lorenzo Cain, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports. Market demand for center fielders remains strong; perhaps the Brewers see an opening to moving some of the remaining money owed Cain.
Unlike Hader, Cain isn’t a positive-value asset at this stage. He turned in a big first season in Milwaukee after his surprise signing but stumbled in 2019. His contract calls for $51MM more in the next three campaigns — a big bill for a player coming off of an 83 wRC+ effort and demonstrating reduced foot speed (by measure of Statcast). But defensive metrics still love Cain’s glove and there’s reason to hope he can bounce back offensively.
Moving Cain would open yet more payroll space, but the end goal here isn’t yet quite evident. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that the prevailing expectation around the game is for the Brewers to pare back payroll after opening the 2019 season at a franchise-high $122.5MM. While that may be what others teams are thinking in the wake of the team’s recent moves and trade talk, however, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel suggested in his latest podcast (audio link) that there’s no directive to cut payroll and that the team will likely spend to address some notable holes on the roster (corner infield, catcher, starting pitching). The extent to which they’ll spend, of course, can’t be known; the Brewers appeared headed for a modest payroll in 2019 until late opportunities to add Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas on short-term deals surfaced unexpectedly.
At a minimum, there’s now ample flexibility for GM David Stearns to work with. Haudricourt covered the comments on the matter yesterday from Stearns. (Links to Twitter.) The club’s top baseball ops exec acknowledged the money-saving effects of the moves but didn’t really commit himself to one course of action or another, beyond making clear that the team “intend[s] on being competitive once again next year.”
Stearns cautioned fans not to judge the roster based upon its present status, saying he anticipates “invest[ing] in players throughout the course of the offseason.” And at least some of the open payroll space will be put to use. “I’d say that payroll flexibility helps, and isn’t a bad thing as we evaluate potential acquisitions throughout the offseason,” says Stearns. “It’s helpful to have payroll room.”