Josh Hader

Arbitration Breakdown: Josh Hader

By Matt Swartz | January 8, 2020 at 1:24pm CDT

Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

Josh Hader just barely qualified for early arbitration eligibility as a Super Two, significantly boosting his career earning outlook. He did so on the heels of his first season as a full-time closer. Hader saved 37 games in 2019, after saving just 12 games in his career beforehand. However, Hader has consistently pitched in high leverage innings, accumulating 39 career holds, and has put up phenomenal strikeout numbers and a low ERA. In less than three full seasons, Hader has struck out 349 hitters in 240.2 innings and put up a 2.42 ERA. My model projects him to earn $4.6MM in his run through arbitration.

A typical comparable for Hader would be someone who had a full platform year as a closer, but only limited saves prior to that, while having a lower ERA and a lot of strikeouts. The closest comparable is probably Ken Giles two years ago. He had 34 platform saves (to Hader’s 37) and 65 career saves (to Hader’s 49). He struck out 336 hitters in his career, but just 83 in his platform year. Hader struck out 349 in his career, but had 138 in his platform year. Giles’ 2.30 platform year ERA was similar to Hader’s 2.62, and his career 2.43 ERA was almost exactly spot on Hader’s 2.42. Giles earned $4.6MM. Overall it is not clear which of Giles or Hader should earn more, which means the $4.6MM projection to match Giles is probably about right.

This is reinforced by the fact that the other three players in the last five years with 30 saves in their platform year and between 40 and 65 saves in their career all earned between $4.1 and $4.2MM, each back in 2016. Those were Hector Rendon, Cody Allen, and Jeurys Familia. They all had ERA in the mid 2’s as well, ranging from 2.42 to 2.82.

The one thing that sticks out about Hader beyond that list is his very high strikeout rate. That distinguishes him from all of these other relievers who fell short of triple-digit strikeouts in their platform year. Hader’s 138 strikeouts topped all four aforementioned closers.

Another avenue could be to ignore old-fashioned stats like saves and holds and see if anyone else has similar strikeout numbers out of the bullpen. Ultimately, this was limited. I looked for any reliever in the last five years who entered arbitration for the first time with at least 120 strikeouts in their platform year and 300 in their career. That only yielded Dellin Betances, who earned $3MM three years ago, despite only 22 career saves. (That came after he lost a high-stakes hearing in which he sought $5MM.) That would certainly provide a floor, but it is clear that Hader should be well above this anyway.

Ultimately, I think it is safe to assume he lands close to his $4.6MM projection. I could see some upside if his strikeouts are considered more heavily, but since relievers generally get paid based on saves and holds, I do not think he will exceed his projection by much.

Pitching Rumors: Ryu, Leclerc, Betances, Hader, Thor

By Connor Byrne | December 12, 2019 at 11:03pm CDT

Earlier this week, Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register and other reporters that he has discussed a new deal for Hyun-Jin Ryu with agent Scott Boras. For now, though, Ryu’s under the impression his longtime club isn’t particularly interested in bringing him back. “If the Dodgers wanted to re-sign me, they would have told my agent,” the left-hander said (via Yonhap News Agency). “I haven’t heard from him yet, and honestly, I don’t have much to tell you right now.” Ryu and Madison Bumgarner, another potential Dodgers target, represent the two best free-agent starters left in a market that has lost Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg over the past few days. Should the Dodgers fail to sign either of them, it’s unclear where they’ll turn if they’re determined to land another high-end starter.

Rangers right-handed reliever Jose Leclerc is generating “a lot of interest” from other clubs, Levi Weaver of The Athletic tweets. That said, it’s not known whether the Rangers are open to trading their most valuable reliever – whom they signed to a team-friendly extension last offseason. The hard-throwing Leclerc, 25, is controllable for five more seasons (including two club options) and is only due a guaranteed $12.25MM over the rest of his deal. That’s one of the reasons he’d likely bring back a quality haul in a trade, which could create a conundrum for general manager Jon Daniels.
It appears increasingly likely that reliever Dellin Betances’ time with the Yankees is up. There’s no “active dialogue” between the Yankees and the free-agent righty’s camp, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. The 31-year-old Betances was excellent as a Yankee until injuries derailed him in 2019, when he faced a total of two batters. It seems the Yankees have turned their attention to another established reliever, Brewers lefty Josh Hader, whom they’re reportedly pursuing on the trade market. But Sherman throws a bit of cold water on that, writing that the two teams “did not seem to have substantial traction” in talks as the Winter Meetings wrapped up.
The Mets just added two starters in Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha, giving them at least viable rotation candidates. Those somewhat modest signings won’t affect righty Noah Syndergaard’s place on the team’s roster, though. GM Brodie Van Wagenen continues to insist the Mets are not going to trade Syndergaard, Sherman relays. In fact, with Jacob deGrom, Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz, Porcello and Wacha as the Mets’ top six starters, Van Wagenen’s of the belief that they have the deepest rotation in baseball.

Yankees, Dodgers, Mets Reportedly In Market For Josh Hader

By Jeff Todd | December 12, 2019 at 9:48am CDT

With the top end of the relief market going off the board early, teams looking for elite pen arms have been eyeing trade possibilities. The most intriguing of those: star Brewers lefty Josh Hader, who was recently reported to have been made available in talks. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently updated the market situation (subscription link).

Left-handed American League East hitters will be particularly distraught to learn that the Yankees “have been the most active pursuer” of Hader. The Yanks already possess two dynamic southpaws in Aroldis Chapman and Zack Britton. Having already brought in Chapman and Gerrit Cole this offseason, a move for Hader would make a stunning trifecta of high-powered arms.

Other clubs have also put in calls to Brewers GM David Stearns. The list includes the Dodgers and Mets, according to Rosenthal. No doubt a variety of other organizations are also checking in to see whether it might be possible to structure a mutually agreeable trade. Hader could take over as a traditional closer or function as a roving high-leverage out-getter, as suits a given team’s preferences.

Hader’s appeal lies not only in his strikeout-producing left arm, but also his age (26 in April) and contract rights. He’s controllable for four more seasons through the arbitration process. Those won’t come cheap, as Hader projects to earn $4.6MM as a Super Two and could yet attempt to argue for more in a high-stakes hearing. (A prior attempt to shake up the arb system for relievers didn’t work out for Dellin Betances, though Hader has more saves to his record.) Still, it’s a far sight shy of what it would cost to acquire a similar pitcher on the open market — not that it’s even possible to do so.

NL Central Notes: Stearns, Hader, Pirates, Reds

By Mark Polishuk | December 10, 2019 at 5:18am CDT

Let’s take a look at the latest from around the NL Central…

“Frankly, at this point, we don’t think too much about that,” Brewers GM David Stearns told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter video link), MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, and other reporters when asked what pitchers are currently penciled into the starting rotation. As usual, the Brew Crew will be flexible as possible in deciding which pitchers start games and how many innings they’ll accumulate, with Stearns citing Brandon Woodruff, Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser, Freddy Peralta, and Corbin Burnes as hurlers with starting experience. Peralta and Burnes will indeed still get consideration for starting jobs, Stearns said, though both struggled in the role last season. This isn’t to say that rotation additions couldn’t still be made, and relief help could also come later in the offseason, Stearns said. Milwaukee had interest in re-signing both free agent Jordan Lyles and the non-tendered Junior Guerra before the two pitchers respectively signed with the Rangers and Diamondbacks.
Eyebrows were raised earlier this week at reports that the Brewers were open to trade offers for superstar reliever Josh Hader. While Stearns didn’t deny the report or dismiss the idea of a Hader deal, he naturally didn’t give any hint about how much desire his club actually had in moving Hader, only saying that “I think we consider him the best reliever in baseball right now.” Obviously, it would take a major offer to land Hader, who is controlled via arbitration through the 2023 season as a Super Two player.
Since Jacob Stallings is the only catcher on the Pirates’ 40-man roster, it isn’t any shock that GM Ben Cherington told media members (including Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic) that the Bucs are looking to upgrade the catching corps “in some ways.” Biertempfel notes that Cherington was “emphasizing the plural,” meaning that Pittsburgh will look to add multiple catchers for both the big league club and the farm system.
With so much action on the free agent market so far, “I personally feel like there’s less trade activity likely to happen at the Winter Meetings than in prior years,” Reds president of baseball operations Dick Williams told the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters. “I think that’s the trend and I feel like other baseball front offices…feel like it’s gotten to the point where with all the other stuff that’s going on, it’s a time to continue conversations, but it’s really hard to push things across the finish line from a trade perspective.” The Reds have already one major free agent splash in signing Mike Moustakas and have been linked to several other big names, though while Williams “would say it’s entirely possible” Cincinnati makes another signing during the Meetings, “there is not one that I would say is likely to happen yet….I don’t have one that is closing in on a physical or something.”

Latest On Brewers’ Offseason Plans

By Jeff Todd | December 3, 2019 at 1:09pm CDT

Having already trimmed a laundry list of notable players from their 40-man roster — some through free agency, others via trade, yet more through non-tender — the Brewers now face a wide open remaining offseason. Just what course it’ll take isn’t really evident from the outside; no doubt it’s also something of a mystery from within.

It emerged recently that the Brewers are actively engaged in trade discussions regarding ace reliever Josh Hader. It’s not a given he’ll be dealt, but that’s now a distinct (and somewhat surprising) possibility for a repeat postseason team.

Hader isn’t the only veteran who has been bandied about in talks. The club is also amenable to discussing center fielder Lorenzo Cain, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports. Market demand for center fielders remains strong; perhaps the Brewers see an opening to moving some of the remaining money owed Cain.

Unlike Hader, Cain isn’t a positive-value asset at this stage. He turned in a big first season in Milwaukee after his surprise signing but stumbled in 2019. His contract calls for $51MM more in the next three campaigns — a big bill for a player coming off of an 83 wRC+ effort and demonstrating reduced foot speed (by measure of Statcast). But defensive metrics still love Cain’s glove and there’s reason to hope he can bounce back offensively.

Moving Cain would open yet more payroll space, but the end goal here isn’t yet quite evident. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that the prevailing expectation around the game is for the Brewers to pare back payroll after opening the 2019 season at a franchise-high $122.5MM. While that may be what others teams are thinking in the wake of the team’s recent moves and trade talk, however, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel suggested in his latest podcast (audio link) that there’s no directive to cut payroll and that the team will likely spend to address some notable holes on the roster (corner infield, catcher, starting pitching). The extent to which they’ll spend, of course, can’t be known; the Brewers appeared headed for a modest payroll in 2019 until late opportunities to add Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas on short-term deals surfaced unexpectedly.

At a minimum, there’s now ample flexibility for GM David Stearns to work with. Haudricourt covered the comments on the matter yesterday from Stearns. (Links to Twitter.) The club’s top baseball ops exec acknowledged the money-saving effects of the moves but didn’t really commit himself to one course of action or another, beyond making clear that the team “intend[s] on being competitive once again next year.”

Stearns cautioned fans not to judge the roster based upon its present status, saying he anticipates “invest[ing] in players throughout the course of the offseason.” And at least some of the open payroll space will be put to use. “I’d say that payroll flexibility helps, and isn’t a bad thing as we evaluate potential acquisitions throughout the offseason,” says Stearns. “It’s helpful to have payroll room.”

Brewers Willing To Listen On Josh Hader Trade

By Anthony Franco | December 1, 2019 at 10:48pm CDT

Brewers’ star reliever Josh Hader is “available” in trade, reports the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. While Rosenthal indicates that no deal is close, Hader’s inclusion on the trade market could make for one of the more fascinating storylines of the coming months.

The 25-year-old southpaw has emerged as perhaps the best reliever in baseball since making his MLB debut in 2017. For his career, Hader has tossed 204.2 relief innings with a 2.42 ERA and an otherworldly 44.6% strikeout rate. Working without a set role and capable of handling multiple innings in an outing, Hader has exceeded 75 innings each of the last two seasons, all the while recording dominant strikeout numbers.

If there’s a blemish on Hader’s resume, he was a bit home run prone in 2019. He was hardly unique in that regard, of course, but Hader’s 15 home runs allowed pushed his ERA to a career-worst (albeit still stellar) 2.62. That’s not to diminish, though, just how dominant Hader has been. His 47.8% strikeout rate last year was easily the league’s best (minimum 50 innings); the 6.1 percentage point gap between Hader and second-place Nick Anderson equaled the gap between Anderson and fifteenth-place Chris Sale.

Why would the Brewers consider moving Hader coming off back-to-back playoff berths of which he was an integral part? Rosenthal argues it’s simply the nature of being a low payroll organization; the front office can never afford to completely shut itself out from any opportunity. That’s not to say Hader’s priced himself out of Milwaukee. Hader qualified for Super Two and is projected for an extremely affordable $4.6MM salary, although Rosenthal notes that Hader’s reps at CAA figure to argue for something a bit greater based on Hader’s status as a player of “special accomplishment.”

Regardless of whether that argument proves successful, Hader certainly remains a bargain. He won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2023 season. His employer, be it the Brewers or some eventual trade partner, wouldn’t be committed to any long-term expenditure if he were to regress and/or suffer an injury. Perhaps no reliever in history can boast of Hader’s recent combination of dominance and volume.

One speculative target whom Rosenthal points to is the Mets, although he adds it’s unclear if New York and Milwaukee have actually discussed a Hader trade. New York is certainly on the hunt for bullpen help, and Mets’ GM Brodie Van Wagenen co-represented Hader at CAA before taking over in Flushing. As Rosenthal notes, Van Wagenen has shown an affinity for pursuing his former clients in trade and/or free agency. While the Mets’ farm system has been depleted in recent months (most notably when Van Wagenen parted with Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn to bring in former client Robinson Canó), Rosenthal speculates that New York could move pieces directly off its big league roster to facilitate a deal.

That said, virtually every present contender- or team angling towards contention in the near future- figures to have some level of interest in Hader. He’s affordable enough to fit into any team’s budget, and he would be the biggest weapon in essentially any bullpen he’s part of. As Rosenthal notes, some clubs could have concerns that Hader’s unconventionally high volume might eventually catch up with him. To this point, though, Hader’s shown no sign of letting up. Any slight downturn in performance in 2019 can be explained by the liveliness of the baseball, and he’s never had a stint on the injured list.

With all the appeals in Hader’s profile, Milwaukee has little urgency to make a move. If no one meets their exorbitant asking price, the Brewers could certainly bring Hader back and hope for similar dominance moving forward. Listening to offers is hardly the same as aggressively shopping a player. Perhaps nothing will come together in the long run.

Yet Hader’s situation will be fascinating to follow. With free agency starved for relievers, teams set on acquiring one with a high-end track record will have to work the trade market. No one can quite match the track record Hader’s put together over the past few seasons, setting the stage for a potential blockbuster.

Super Two Cutoff Set At 2.115 Years Of Service

By Steve Adams | November 5, 2019 at 8:50am CDT

NOV. 5: This year’s cutoff is set at precisely 2.115 days of service, MLBTR has learned.

OCT. 10: This year’s cutoff point to determine Super Two status will be unusually low, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (via Twitter). While an exact cutoff point is yet unclear, McCalvy reports that Josh Hader, who has two years and 115 days of MLB service time (abbreviated as 2.115) will be eligible for arbitration this winter. In essence, that means that Hader is about to become a very well-compensated reliever. That would’ve been the case in the 2020-21 offseason anyway, but he’ll now tap into that earning power a year early. It’s also worth noting that this cutoff point will place Miami’s JT Riddle, who finished the season at 2.118 years of service, into arbitration eligibility as well.

A 2.115 cutoff would already be the lowest Super Two threshold in the past decade. The previous lowpoints in that span came in 2010 and 2013, when the cutoff was 2.122. Last year, it settled at 2.134. If the threshold is any lower this season, others could also be impacted. Arizona’s Luke Weaver (2.112) and Oakland’s Matt Chapman (2.109) are the most notable names within reasonable distance of Hader’s 2.115.

Super Two designation is one of the innumerable quirks to the ever-confounding arbitration system. For the unfamiliar, Major League players earn “service time” for every day spent on an MLB roster. One year of MLB service is defined as 172 days — despite the fact that there are more days than that in the regular season. (This year’s season was 186 days; again — hooray for quirks!)

Upon reaching three years of service time, all players become eligible for salary arbitration. Prior to that point, teams are effectively able to set (most) player salaries at any rate they wish, so long as it is north of the league minimum. Many teams have formulas they use to determine pre-arbitration salaries, and it’s quite rare for pre-arb players to earn even $1MM (barring a long-term extension). Arbitration is the first point at which players and their agents can begin negotiating with teams regarding their salary, though arbitration prices still typically fall shy of open-market value.

The “Super Two” wrinkle further complicates matters. The top 22 percent of players (in terms of total service time) with between two and three years of service also are considered eligible for arbitration and termed “Super Two” players. Any player who falls into that service bucket and spent at least 86 days of the preceding season on a 25-man roster or the Major League injured list become eligible a year early and then go through the arbitration process four times.

In the case of Hader, he’s now in line for a fairly considerable salary. He has 37 more innings, eight more saves and a whopping 116 more strikeouts than his own teammate, Corey Knebel, had when reaching arbitration as a Super Two player last season. Knebel landed a $3.65MM salary, which Hader should handily top. Beyond that, Hader’s subsequent raises in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be built off a higher base because of his early entry into the arbitration process.

Once the exact cutoff is determined, we’ll add projections for Hader, Riddle and any other newly minted arbitration-eligible players to our just-released annual list of arbitration projections.

NL Notes: Carlson, Hader, Hosmer, Ahmed

By Jeff Todd | August 15, 2019 at 1:05pm CDT

The Cardinals have promoted top outfield prospect Dylan Carlson to Triple-A, per an announcement from the club’s top affiliate. That puts the 20-year-old switch-hitter right on the doorstep of the big leagues. Carlson turned in a strong .281/.364/.518 batting line with 21 long balls and 18 steals over 483 Double-A plate appearances. It’s not clear whether the club has any thought of a late-2019 MLB promotion for the talented youngster.

NL Central Notes: Ozuna, Shaw, Hader, Maddon

By Steve Adams | April 3, 2019 at 10:57pm CDT

Cardinals left fielder Marcell Ozuna was scratched from Wednesday’s lineup after experiencing pain in his torso, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Goold further tweets that Ozuna is headed for an MRI tomorrow, and manager Mike Shildt expressed some concern about a potential intercostal strain. It’s a frustrating development for both team and player, as Ozuna was hoping to bounce back from an injury-marred 2018 season in which ongoing shoulder issues hampered his swing. The Cardinals, meanwhile, were hoping that a healthier Ozuna could pair with offseason acquisition Paul Goldschmidt to bolster the middle of the batting order. If Ozuna needs to miss time, Tyler O’Neill could step into a larger role with the club, and Jose Martinez (who started in place of Ozuna today) could get some additional at-bats as well.

Central Notes: Detroit Ballparks, Forsythe, Hader

By Kyle Downing | September 23, 2018 at 11:34am CDT

In 1895, a ballpark was built on a patch of Detroit grass on the corners of Michigan and Trumbull avenues. 17 years later, the Tigers would make it their home until the turn of the millennium. But after it sat empty and lonely for another ten years, and then, as Jared Wyllys of Sportingnews.com puts it, it was gone.

All that remains now of former Tiger Stadium is a dark green flag pole in center field at the new Corner Ballpark that’s since been built on site. The former home of the Negro League Detroit Stars has been neglected for two decades, too. Ike Blessit, a Tiger for four MLB games back in 1972, has started his own 501(c)3 organization to try and raise money to restore it. It’s a project of considerable size, but Blessit will “tirelessly evangelize any audience” in order to get the attention he feels the endeavor deserves. There are plenty more details within the full piece, which historians and Tigers fans alike ought give a full read.

A couple more items out of the Midwest…

Twins infielder Logan Forsythe heads into free agency for the first time “surrounded by unknowns,” Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press tweets as an intro to a full piece on the subject. Forsythe has been dealing with a left knee issue, and will have only a small handful of opportunities to reverse a 44-game homer drought when he’s able to return to the lineup. Berardino describes Forsythe’s offense as being on a “downward trend”, citing a .287 slugging percentage with just ten doubles since his last homer on June 10th. While that’s somewhat of an arbitrary endpoint, Berardino brings to light more stable figures to draw from, such as a dip in homers per season and average exit velocity since his peak with the Rays in 2016. “This year going into the offseason, we’re just open ears right now,” Forsythe said on the subject. “When the offers start coming in, it’s going to be based on where our family is at and what’s best for our family. But I’ve always been a fan of Minnesota, coming here to play. It’s a sleeper city.”
Brewers relief ace Josh Hader broke two more records during Friday night’s contest against the Pirates, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel notes, which further adds to the splendor of his 2018 resume. Hader’s streak of 16 consecutive outs recorded via the strikeout is the longest by a pitcher in the expansion era, and his 136 K’s on the season are now the most ever for a left-handed reliever in a single season. He’s needed just 77 innings to reach that threshold, making that feat all the more remarkable considering the former record holder needed 150 innings to set the old record of 134. Rosiak lists a slew of other accomplishments by Hader, and details his pitch selection along with some fun facts that diehard Brewers fans will surely enjoy.

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