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NL Notes: Brewers, Tellez, Naquin, Smith

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Corbin Burnes and Josh Hader combined on Major League Baseball’s record-setting ninth official no-hitter of the season, as the Brewers recorded a 3-0 victory over the Indians.  Burnes struck out 14 Cleveland batters over eight dominant innings, though since Burnes amassed 115 pitches, Hader was brought in to finish things off with a perfect ninth inning.  It was the second no-hitter in Brewers franchise history, since Juan Nieves’ gem on April 15, 1987.

Baseball’s “Year Of The No-Hitter” hasn’t been kind to the Indians, who have now set a record by being no-hit three times in a single season.  Zach Plesac has been the Tribe’s starting pitcher for all three of those games, and Plesac matches Jim Perry as the only hurler in baseball history to be on the mound opposite three no-hitters in his career (let alone in a single season).

The latest from around the senior circuit…

  • It wasn’t a perfect night for the Brewers, as first baseman Rowdy Tellez left the game prior to the bottom of the second inning due to a knee injury.  Manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) that Tellez has been bothered by the nagging injury for some time, and he will undergo an MRI tomorrow to determine the extent of the problem.  Acquired in a trade with the Blue Jays in early July, Tellez hit .265/.325/.464 with seven home runs over his first 166 plate appearances in a Milwaukee uniform.  Tellez has become the Brew Crew’s top first base option, though if he has to miss time on the injured list, the team can turn to a combination of Daniel Vogelbach, Eduardo Escobar, and Jace Peterson at first base.
  • A sixth-inning collision between Reds teammates Tyler Naquin and Jose Barrero resulted in Naquin leaving the game with bruised ribs.  Naquin and Barrero were both in pursuit of a short fly ball from the Cardinals’ Dylan Carlson, but the ball eluded the duo in painful fashion, resulting in an RBI double for Carlson.  In positive news, Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic) that there weren’t any concerns that either Naquin or Barrero suffered a concussion.  The Reds don’t play on Monday, so it seems likely that Naquin will get two full days off to recuperate, and it remains to be seen if the injured list will ultimately be required.
  • Caleb Smith lost the appeal of his 10-game suspension, and began serving that suspension today.  The Diamondbacks southpaw was hit with the 10-game ban after umpires discovered a foreign substance on his glove during an August 18 game.  Smith strongly protested his ejection from the game and subsequent suspension, though his appeal didn’t result in a change of the league’s initial decision.  Smith has a 5.04 ERA/4.68 SIERA over 105 innings this season, moving between Arizona’s rotation and bullpen amidst a lot of control problems.

Brewers Activate Josh Hader, Transfer John Axford To 60-Day Injured List

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The Brewers activated closer Josh Hader from the Covid-19-related injured list Thursday, clearing roster space by optioning lefty Hoby Milner to Triple-A Nashville and transferring righty John Axford to the 60-day injured list, per a club announcement.

Hader, 27, is in the midst of yet another dominant season on the mound, having pitched to a career-low 1.83 ERA with a 45 percent strikeout rate that leads all qualified relief pitchers and a 9.4 percent walk that’s down more than three percent from his shaky levels in 2020. Devin Williams has been getting save chances in Hader’s absence, but Hader figures to again serve as manager Craig Counsell’s go-to option in such situations now.

The news on Axford was to be expected. The Brewers already announced earlier this month that the 38-year-old right-hander sustained a season-ending elbow injury during his first big league appearance since 2018. Unfortunately, Axford indeed sustained an injury to his ulnar collateral ligament, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reported this morning, and he’s weighing what the injury means for his career at this point. President of baseball operations David Stearns indicated that Axford is likely looking at a “reconstruction” surgery (i.e. Tommy John).

“It’s really unfortunate,” said Stearns. “We feel awful for John. I think he was very excited to come to this team. He was excited to pitch in a pennant race, hopefully pitch in the playoffs again. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out.”

Given the timing of the injury, a Tommy John procedure would very likely wipe out all of Axford’s 2022 season as well. If he did attempt a comeback, he’d be doing so in 2023 for what would be his age-40 season.

Brewers Place Lauer, Hader, Hiura On Covid List

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Aug. 4: The Brewers announced yet another positive test: lefty Eric Lauer. He’ll head to the Covid list and be subject to a 10-day quarantine, at minimum. That move opens roster space to add righty Sal Romano, whom the Brewers claimed off waivers from the Yankees this week.

Lauer, acquired alongside Luis Urias in the trade that sent Trent Grisham and Zach Davies to San Diego, has quietly enjoyed a strong season in Milwaukee. He’s made 15 appearances — 11 starts, four bullpen outings — and notched a 3.50 ERA with a 22.9 percent strikeout rate and an 8.9 percent walk rate. He’s been brilliant as of late, too, making even a brief departure a tough blow to the Brewers. Over Lauer’s past seven outings (six starts, one relief appearance), he’s pitched to a 1.98 ERA with a 31-to-13 K/BB ratio through 36 1/3 frames.

Aug. 3: Milwaukee has also placed infielder Keston Hiura on the COVID-19 list, the team announced.

Aug. 2, 4:50pm: Hader indeed tested positive, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. He’ll be out a minimum of 10 days.

3:38pm: The Brewers have placed lefty Josh Hader on the Covid-19-related injured list, per a club announcement. Newly added righty John Axford has been selected to the Major League roster in a corresponding move. The team did not specify whether Hader has tested positive or was a close contact. Individuals who test positive are subject to a 10-day quarantine, while close contacts are subject to seven-day absences.

It’s been another dominant season for the 21-year-old Hader, who has pitched to a sterling 1.83 ERA while striking out 45 percent of his opponents against a 9.4 percent walk rate through 39 1/3 innings thus far in 2021. Hader is the latest in a growing number of Brewers to hit the Covid IL, joining bullpen-mates Hunter Strickland, Jandel Gustave and Jake Cousins as well as right fielder Christian Yelich.

With Hader sidelined for a yet-unknown period of time, right-hander Devin Williams figures to step in as the primary option in save situations for manager Craig Counsell. Brent Suter, Brad Boxberger and the recently acquired John Curtiss will be among the first names up for setup work.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Stearns On Brewers’ Offseason Needs, Hader Rumors

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The Brewers eked out a postseason berth in 2020 by virtue of this year’s expanded format, laying claim to the No. 8 seed in the National League despite finishing with a sub-.500 record (29-31). They’re headed back into the offseason with plenty of holes to fill thanks to last year’s slate of one-year pickups, but the infield in particular is rife with uncertainty.

In Keston Hiura, Luis Urias and Orlando Arcia, the Brew Crew has some options up the middle, but the infield corners are far less certain. That reality is all the more clear after president of baseball operations David Stearns acknowledged the deficiency in an interview with The Athletic’s Will Sammon this week when discussing the work that lies ahead between now and Spring Training.

“I think what is clear is our production at first base and third base has to improve,” Stearns tells Sammon. “That, we know. Whether that can come from internal sources or external sources are some of the questions we’re continuing to talk through, evaluate and then determine the best course of action.”

While Stearns’ comment about a need for improvement is of course accurate, it also in many ways largely undersells how dire the situation is. Milwaukee third basemen combined for an abysmal .200/.279/.295 in 2020, which translated to an MLB-worst 56 wRC+ at the position.

Things were better across the diamond, where Milwaukee first basemen batted .229/.303/.467 — good for a 101 wRC+ that ranked 17th in the Majors. However, the bulk of that production came from Jedd Gyorko, whose option was bought out at season’s end. Daniel Vogelbach was red-hot in his short time with the Brewers to end the season, but he only logged eight plate appearances as a first baseman. He could be in line for more of a look at first in 2021, but it’s not guaranteed that he’ll be tendered a contract. Vogelbach is arbitraiton-eligible and struggled enormously from the All-Star break in 2019 up until his acquisition by the Brewers. He’s more of a designated hitter than a first baseman, and the lack of clarity regarding the universal DH could lead to a non-tender.

There are plenty of external options to explore at the infield corners, although Sammon reports that the Brewers’ payroll — like the payroll of most clubs around the league — is expected to decline in 2021. The Brewers’ 2020 payroll was set to open at just shy of $98MM before the season was halted and salaries were pro-rated. They currently have about $47.5MM in guaranteed contracts plus a big slate of arbitration players who could approach roughly $26MM in salary. Several of those names are non-tender candidates, which could give Stearns & Co. some breathing room as they search for upgrades.

Trades for high-profile infielders like Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado and Francisco Lindor can be ruled out due to the salary associated with those players. Free agents Justin Turner and DJ LeMahieu, similarly, are likely to be too expensive. But the market does have some intriguing bounceback options, with Jake Lamb and Carlos Santana among the veterans eyeing rebounds. Trade possibilities are numerous, of course, and the Brewers will see a whole new set of possible candidates join the field next week after Wednesday’s non-tender deadline. They’ll also have a firmer grasp on what they can afford to spend at that point.

One player sure to be immune from that non-tender fate is lefty Josh Hader, whose name has again popped up on the rumor circuit. Despite Stearns’ prior assertion that he doesn’t envision trading Hader, Fansided’s Robert Murray reported recently that Milwaukee is “open” to such a move. That’s a far cry from shopping Hader, of course, and Stearns again sought to downplay the possibility while instead characterizing any listening on Hader more as due diligence. The Brewers, per Stearns are in a “very similar position” with Hader as they were after the trade deadline when he initially made those comments.

“Josh remains a very large contributor to our team and he has since he got here,” Stearns says. “I don’t really anticipate that changing. And when you have really good players, you’re going to get calls on them. And I don’t anticipate that changing, either.”

Stearns, like many of today’s presidents and general managers, seems to prefer not to operate in absolutes, so it’s only natural that he’ll continue listening should teams continue to try to blow the Brewers away with an offer. And this time next year or even at the 2021 trade deadline, the situation may be different.

If Hader keeps piling up strikeouts and saves, the arbitration process will keep ballooning his salary. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.1MM in 2021, and barring a long-term deal, that number could quickly rise beyond Milwaukee’s comfort level. If the Brewers are well out of the race next summer or carry Hader into the offseason, it might become more realistic to see a low-payroll club more aggressively solicit offers. That’s not to say that a trade this winter is wholly off the table, but at least for the time being, he appears affordable enough that Milwaukee can enjoy the benefit of a Hader/Devin Williams combo late in games to help slam the door in close contests.

Brewers Open To Moving Josh Hader

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The Brewers are looking for offensive upgrades this winter, and they have at least one significant bargaining chip. Milwaukee is open to offers for elite reliever Josh Hader, per Robert Murray of Fansided.

As central as Hader has been to this run of Brewers contention – and as unique a talent as he has been – the Brewers have to at least listen to offers. He’s projected to make $5.65MM this season, and he has another two seasons of control remaining. Now might be the peak of Hader’s trade value.

For the Brewers, he might be a luxury they can no longer afford. Even at his most dominant, Hader maxed out at 2.7 bWAR during the regular season. There’s additional value for Hader’s role in the postseason, however, evidenced by his dominant run of 10 scoreless innings in the 2018 playoffs that played a major role in getting the Brewers to the NLCS. For an NL contender looking to balance to scales against the  juggernaut Dodgers, a weapon like Hader could present a solution.

Besides, it just so happens that the Brewers produced another high-end reliever in Rookie-of-the-Year Devin Williams. As tantalizing as the pair would be at the tail-end of games, the Brewers have other holes to fill and a limited payroll. They had a roughly $97MM payroll in 2020, and they’re already close to that number with arbitration projections for 2021. They could non-tender Corey Knebel to open up about $5MM, but he’s also a high-end bullpen piece at his best – which he wasn’t in 2020 with a 6.08 ERA in 13 1/3 innings.

If they’re serious about upgrading the offense, which Murray notes finished 26th in runs and 24th in OPS, moving a piece like Hader might provide a path. Naysayers may point to the mph he lost on his fastball this season, but he was still among the very best in the game at limiting hard contact (85.4 mph EV), avoiding barrels (14.7 Barrel%), and striking out opposing hitters (39.7 K%) – not to mention a 2.94 xERA that ranks among the top 10% in the game.

Brewers’ Stearns Addresses Josh Hader Trade Rumors

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Josh Hader’s name surfaced in trade rumors both at this year’s deadline and last winter, as teams understandably inquired on one of the game’s most prolific strikeout arms. There was never any real indication that the Brewers were in serious trade talks regarding the left-hander, though, and over the weekend, president of baseball operations David Stearns all but confirmed that nothing was ever close. Speaking in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio), Stearns acknowledged that he listened to offers on Hader but chalked it up to due diligence and strongly downplayed the possibility of moving Hader anytime in the near future:

..There are always going to be calls on elite players in the game, and certainly Josh is no different. But we believe he’s a really valuable member of our team and will be going forward. I think there are a couple times of year where you’re going to get that volume of calls: the trade deadline and around the Winter Meetings. Sometimes into Spring Training, the volume of calls picks up. That was certainly the case this deadline, and when you get calls, it’s our obligation to listen and engage and see if something makes sense. With all of that said, as I said before, Josh is a really important member of our team. We’re not looking to move him. We’ve never really looked to move him, and I don’t really anticipate that changing.”

That’s a bit short of former Braves GM John Coppolella’s declaration that he’d sooner give his right arm than trade Freddie Freeman, who remains in Atlanta a half-decade after that comment, but it’s still a notable on-record statement about a disinclination to move the 26-year-old Hader.

There have been plenty of trade rumors surrounding Hader dating back to last offseason, when the Brewers defeated him in arbitration. There was a wide gap between the two sides then, as the Brewers presented $4.1MM and Hader requested $6.4MM. Hader said after the decision came down that arbitration for relievers was “outdated.” That may be true, but considering he’s still scheduled to go through the arb process three more times, the Brewers haven’t felt any urgency to part with Hader so far.

Hader was fresh off his third straight stellar season last winter, of course, but the two-time All-Star hasn’t been as sharp in 2020. Granted, a large portion of the damage Hader has suffered this year came in a four-run, one-inning blowup against the Cubs on Saturday. With that performance factored in, he owns a 4.30 ERA/4.50 FIP with 14.11 K/9 and a career-worst 6.14 BB/9 across 14 2/3 frames this season. Teams still probably won’t be deterred from continuing to try to acquire Hader from the Brewers during the upcoming offseason, but Stearns clearly isn’t in any hurry to give him up.

Central News & Rumors: Hader, Burnes, Twins, Norris, Romine, Tigers, Chatwood, Gio

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The Brewers are receiving a lot of interest on Josh Hader and Corbin Burnes, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (all links to Twitter), though there isn’t any sign that Milwaukee would consider moving either reliever for anything less than a major offer, particularly for Hader.  Brett Anderson or David Phelps are perhaps more realistic options to be dealt if the Brewers opt to move an arm.  The Yankees and Twins are two of the clubs who have been in touch with the Brew Crew about Hader, but there hasn’t been much indication that talks led anywhere.

Let’s dive into some news and trade buzz from around both the NL and AL Central divisions…

  • The Tigers are drawing interest in catcher Austin Romine and left-hander Daniel Norris, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports in both a tweet and a longer notes column.  The Rays are one team linked to Norris, who has impressed by posting a 2.40 ERA, 7.2 K/9, and 4.00 K/BB rate over 15 innings.  The former second-round draft pick has been plagued by injuries throughout his career and missed part of Summer Camp recovering from a positive COVID-19 test, though he has performed well as a multi-inning reliever for the Tigers this year.  Romine has also enjoyed a strong season with a .291/.309/.418 slash line over 81 PA, though his trade chip status could have a late wrinkle — the Tigers scratched him from today’s lineup due to right knee soreness.
  • Tyler Chatwood left today’s outing due to right elbow discomfort, according to the Cubs.  The righty bounced a pitch to the plate in the third inning, with manager David Ross telling ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers and other reporters that Chatwood initially felt a problem while throwing a breaking ball on the previous pitch.  Chatwood was making his second start back from the injured list after missing much of August with a back strain.  Elbow problems aren’t good news for any pitcher, though it is particularly concerning in Chatwood’s case since he already has a Tommy John surgery on his record.
  • The injury bug also struck on the south side of Chicago, as the White Sox placed left-hander Gio Gonzalez on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to August 27) with a right groin strain.  Gonzalez’s first year with the Sox hasn’t been a smooth one, as he has a 5.11 ERA over 24 2/3 innings and a 1.5 HR/9 that is almost twice his 0.8 career average.  His most recent outing was, intriguingly, 3 2/3 inning of shutout relief against the Cubs, which could hint at Gonzalez’s role for the White Sox when he returns from the IL.

Pitching Notes: Hader, Bumgarner, Pearson, Dodgers, Beeks, Wright

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On a night in which White Sox ace Lucas Giolito fired the first no-hitter of 2020, let’s check in on several other notable pitchers…

  • The Brewers are “listening” to offers for star reliever Josh Hader, but it’s not likely the club will trade the 26-year-old left-hander before the Aug. 31 deadline, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription link). Milwaukee was also willing to entertain proposals for Hader last winter, but it elected to retain him heading into this year – his first of four potential arbitration seasons. For a bargain price this season (a prorated $4.1MM), Hader has given the Brewers 9 1/3 scoreless, hitless innings with 13 strikeouts and five walks. He’s obviously not someone the Brewers are going to give up for anything less than a massive offer.
  • After throwing a 70-pitch bullpen session Sunday, Diamondbacks southpaw Madison Bumgarner could be closing in on a return from the injured list, per Steve Gilbert of MLB.com. Bumgarner has been on the IL since Aug. 9 with a mid-back strain, but he came out of his bullpen session unscathed, which manager Torey Lovullo called “very encouraging news.” The former Giant’s first season as a Diamondback has been anything but encouraging, though. After inking a five-year, $85MM contract in the offseason, Bumgarner has logged a 9.35 ERA/8.79 FIP with 6.75 K/9, 3.63 BB/9 and a 23.7 percent groundball rate in 17 1/3 innings. The 31-year-old averaged a career-worst 87.8 mph on his fastball during that four-start stretch, but Lovullo revealed Bumgarner’s “velo ticked up a little bit” during sim games.
  • Right-hander Nate Pearson, whom the Blue Jays placed on the IL on Aug. 19, has been diagnosed with a flexor strain, according to Scott Mitchell of TSN. He’s hoping to play catch this weekend, Mitchell reports, though it remains unclear if the rookie will return in 2020. Pearson struggled to a 6.61 ERA/7.60 FIP with 7.71 K/9 and 6.61 BB/9 over four starts and 16 1/3 frames before going on the shelf.
  • Dodgers righty Joe Kelly has been on the IL since Aug. 10 with shoulder inflammation, and a return isn’t imminent for the reliever. Manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday (via Ken Gurnick of MLB.com) that Kelly remains “a ways away” from rejoining the Dodgers. When Kelly does come back, he’ll have to serve a five-game suspension stemming from a July 28 dustup with the Astros. Meanwhile, Dodgers lefty Alex Wood won’t come off the IL before the end of the month, Gurnick tweets. Wood, who’s also dealing with shoulder inflammation, has only made one appearance this year (on July 25).
  • The Rays’ injury-laden pitching staff may have lost yet another hurler Tuesday, when southpaw Jalen Beeks left their game with an elbow/forearm issue. Manager Kevin Cash didn’t come off as optimistic afterward, saying (via Juan Toribio of MLB.com), “It sounded similar to Kitt, but we don’t know anything yet.” Cash was referring to righty Andrew Kittredge, who went on the 45-day IL on Aug. 12 with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament. A similar fate would be a season-ender for Beeks, who has been terrific in 2020. The 27-year-old has notched a 3.26 ERA and a much more impressive 1.74 FIP with 12.1 K/9 against 1.86 BB/9 across 19 1/3 innings.
  • Veteran knuckleballer Steven Wright hasn’t taken a major league mound since July 13, 2019, but the former Red Sox righty informed Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that he’s not ready to call it a career. “I just don’t want to sit back in a few years and wish I had tried it,” said the soon-to-be 36-year-old Wright, who threw 35 pitches from a mound last week and told Abraham, “I’m throwing two bullpens a week and I’m feeling healthy for the first time since 2016.” Wright was an All-Star that year, but he then faced knee problems, Tommy John surgery, a performance-enhancing drugs suspension and an arrest on domestic violence charges (which led to a 15-game ban) during the ensuing seasons.

The Brewers’ Infield Picture

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Those following the Brewers at a distance may not have paid much attention to their tempered approach to the offseason. It’s easy to look at their winter and see a modest collection of stopgaps to stanch the roster bleed of departing vets like Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas. Look a littler closer, however, and you’ll find President of Baseball Ops and GM David Stearns created a two-year window of flexible and affordable contracts to keep Craig Counsell’s squad in contention, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

With Christian Yelich and Josh Hader, the Brew Crew have some of the best high-end talent in the game, but they’ve done a nice job filling out the infield with one-and-one contracts for Brock Holt, Eric Sogard, Justin Smoak, and Jedd Gyorko. Along with trade acquisition Luis Urias, the Brewers found a grab bag of roster pieces to power their infield engine in a wide-open NL Central. Holdovers Keston Hiura and Orlando Arcia join the extensive group of infielders vying for playing time.

Though Arcia is still just 25-years-old and has notched some big performances for the Brewers in recent seasons, his grip on everyday at-bats is loosening. Urias’ injury has provided Arcia with a last-ditch opportunity to prove his mettle. He certainly brings attitude and flair to the diamond, but two seasons of a .228/.277/.333 line dims the outlook on Arcia’s offensive potential for sure. Still, of the newcomers in the clubhouse, only Urias really threatens Arcia’s everyday status at short.

Of all rostered Brewers not named Yelich, Hiura has the highest ceiling. Thus, the onus lies largely (if unfairly) on his shoulders to make up the offensive production left behind by Grandal and Moustakas (who put up a combined 7 oWAR last season per baseball-reference). He put up a robust .303/.368/.570 line in just 84 games as a 22-year-old after being called up last season (139 wRC+). His power numbers have fluctuated throughout his professional career, but the hit tool has consistently played, and the Brewers are counting on Hiura to do some damage from the middle of their order.

The final piece of the infield puzzle for Counsell is long-time face-of-the-franchise Ryan Braun. Braun could see a majority of his time at first base with Avisail Garcia and Ben Gamel lining up with Yelich and Lorenzo Cain in the outfield. The exact formula for the rest of the lineup has no shortage of variables, but Counsell has proven himself an adept engineer. Importantly for Milwaukee, if any of the newly-acquired pieces fail to meld, they’ve maintained the flexibility, financially and structurally, to pivot.

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