NL West Notes: Diamondbacks, Yaz, Haniger, Luciano, Profar
In designating Carson Kelly for assignment earlier today, the Diamondbacks are a little short on catching depth, and GM Mike Hazen told reporters (including MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert) that the club was looking out for external catching options. Gabriel Moreno is the catcher of the present and future in Arizona, and beyond backup Jose Herrera, Ali Sanchez and Juan Centeno are the only other backstops in the organization with any Major League experience. Despite the situation, Hazen felt that “with five to six weeks to go, depth becomes less important than trying to put the best [team] on the field….When we had the roster construction in the first half of the season with Gabi and Herrera, we played really well. I don’t know that that is going to be the secret formula to getting back to the way we were before, I don’t think that’s anyone’s expectation, but that was the choice we had, to send Herrera down or make this move. We decided to make this move.”
Today’s victory over the Padres brought the D’Backs back up to a .500 (59-59) record, though the club is only 10-25 since the start of July. Between this slide and the Dodgers catching fire, the D’Backs went from leading the NL West to trailing Los Angeles by 12.5 games, and the Snakes are also 2.5 games back of a wild card position. While any number of factors have contributed to Arizona’s struggles, a lack of pitching has been the biggest culprit, and the D’Backs will now “take some risks and play it by ear, week by week” with their rotation, according to Hazen. Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Brandon Pfaadt will continue to operate as traditional starters, but the team be open to using bullpen games, piggyback starters, or opener/bulk pitcher setups for the remaining two rotation spots until Zach Davies is back from the 15-day injured list to take one of the spots.
Some other notes from around the NL West…
- Mike Yastrzemski has been on the Giants‘ 10-day IL since July 31 recovering from a hamstring strain, but the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser writes that the outfielder is close to being activated. Yastrzemski had a live batting practice session on Saturday and has been running the bases at full speed, so it doesn’t appear as though he’ll need any minor league rehab work. With Yastrzemski possibly returning on Monday, Slusser speculates that the Giants might option Luis Matos to Triple-A, since Heliot Ramos has been hitting well as of late.
- In other Giants injury updates, Mitch Haniger could soon begin a minor league rehab assignment, and Slusser estimates that he might return to the majors in around two weeks’ time. Haniger hasn’t played since June 13 due to forearm surgery, continuing his unfortunate recent history of injury-shortened seasons. The news isn’t as good for Marco Luciano, as the top prospect will sidelined for at least a month due to a hamstring strain. Luciano made his MLB debut with a four-game cameo with the Giants in July, as the team needed an extra infielder to help solve some depth issues. Over 292 combined plate appearances at Double-A and Triple-A in 2023, Luciano has hit .231/.336/.445 with 13 home runs.
- Jurickson Profar suffered what the Rockies described as a twisted left knee in today’s game, which forced Profar to make an early exit. Profar had to collide with the left field ball to make a running catch on a Mookie Betts fly ball, and Profar was in obvious discomfort afterwards. Colorado manager Bud Black told reporters (including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post) that Profar had already been dealing with a sore left knee even prior to today’s injury, and the outfielder will undergo an MRI to determine the extent of the problem.
Black: Rockies Could Be “More Active” On Summer Trade Market
At 36-58, the Rockies sit at the bottom of the National League and have MLB’s third-worst record overall, leading only the A’s and Royals. While Colorado has developed a reputation for hanging onto potential trade candidates at the deadline instead of moving them at peak value, manager Bud Black said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today that the Rox will likely be more active in 2023 (audio link).
“I think there’s probably more potential this year,” Black told Power Alley hosts Jim Duquette and Mike Ferrin. “…This year is the year where, possibly, you could see more movement out of us. With the players that we have, and what we have going on in the second half of this year, and going into next year and the years beyond, it could make more sense to be a little bit more active.”
Unfortunately for the Rockies, a number of their would-be trade chips are on the injured list — many with serious injuries. German Marquez won’t pitch again this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has a club option for next season, but that’ll likely be declined, as his recovery will span into next summer. Righty Antonio Senzatela is also set for Tommy John surgery, and lefty Kyle Freeland is on the IL with a subluxation in his non-throwing shoulder. Lefty reliever Brent Suter is a rental in the midst of a strong season, but he’s been out since late June with an oblique strain.
Others on the roster are sensible trade candidates from a contractual standpoint but aren’t performing well enough to maximize their value. Reliever Pierce Johnson is on a one-year, $5MM deal and is a natural candidate to change teams, but he’s also toting a grim 6.14 ERA and 13.2% walk rate. Daniel Bard, whom the Rockies extended in lieu of a trade last summer, has spent time on the injured list with anxiety issues. He’s seen a three mile per hour drop in velocity and has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings. C.J. Cron and Jurickson Profar are both free agents at season’s end, but both have played below replacement level in 2023.
The Rox do have a handful of interesting names to peddle. Veterans Randal Grichuk and Brad Hand are both impending free agents at season’s end and could draw interest. Hand was enjoying a strong rebound season before being tagged for seven runs across three recent appearances, sending his ERA ballooning up to 4.99. He’s still an affordable lefty with a 26.1% strikeout rate. If the Rockies aren’t afraid of dealing controllable relievers — particularly a pair who are of the late-blooming variety — both Justin Lawrence and Jake Bird should generate interest.
Catcher Elias Diaz, a first-time All-Star in 2023, is perhaps the team’s most appealing trade candidate, as I explored at greater length last week. Diaz is signed affordably through next season, and it’s unlikely Colorado will be in contention by the time his three-year, $14.5MM deal expires at the end of the 2024 campaign. There’s been no indication the Rockies would entertain offers on third baseman Ryan McMahon — at least not yet — but he’s signed through the 2027 season and is again playing superlative hot corner defense with solid offensive contributions as well (albeit in spite of a career-worst 31% strikeout rate that is an obvious red flag).
There’s sure to be some degree of frustration among Rockies fans to hear these types of comments in 2023 — when the Rockies have their worst roster in years — rather than in recent non-contending seasons. The Rockies, for instance, declined to trade either Trevor Story or Jon Gray when both were in their final seasons of club control. They received a compensatory draft pick when Story declined a qualifying offer but chose not to even make a QO to Gray, losing him with no compensation. GM Bill Schmidt recently suggested to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that he simply didn’t receive “legitimate” offers.
It was a similar story last summer with Bard, who was in the middle of a dominant season and viewed as one of the top trade candidates on the market. Rather than trade the 37-year-old flamethrower a couple months ahead of him reaching the open market, Colorado inked him to a two-year, $19MM extension that has quickly gone south. The Rockies also held onto Cron at the ’21 deadline and later extended him on a two-year deal that looked good this time last summer. Again, however, they hung onto Cron and, as with Bard, have seen his trade value plummet.
Time will tell how aggressive the Rockies will be and how much interest the healthy players on their roster will draw. But it’s abundantly clear the team is in need of some changes. Colorado is 19th in the Majors with 411 runs scored and 24th with 89 total home runs. The Rockies rank 13th in MLB with a .253 batting average but are 22nd with a .313 OBP and 18th with a .403 slugging percentage.
The pitching has been even worse. Injuries have surely contributed, but the Rockies’ staff looked highly questionable even coming into the season. To this point, Colorado starters have baseball’s worst combined ERA (6.44), and their bullpen ranks 27th with a 4.81 mark. Colorado pitchers have MLB’s worst strikeout rate (18.3%) and fifth-highest walk rate (9.7%). Their 1.51 HR/9 mark is the worst in baseball as well.
Latest On Rockies’ Deadline Plans
The Rockies are one of the few teams clearly out of playoff contention a month from the deadline. That positions them as a likely seller, though Colorado has generally been reluctant to deal players in recent summers even as they’ve typically been near the bottom of the standings.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Colorado is expected to be open to offers on most of their impending free agents. However, Heyman indicates the Rox are less interested in parting with Daniel Bard, who is under contract for 2024. That’s not to say they’d categorically refuse to listen on players with multiple years of club control, but it seems the front office prefers to relinquish only shorter-term assets.
That’s no surprise in light of Colorado’s past deadline activity. If the Rox do constrain themselves only to parting with rentals, they could be in for another quiet summer. The Rockies have six impending free agents — they already dealt Mike Moustakas to the Angels last weekend — but the bulk of the group has struggled.
A late-spring roll of the dice on Jurickson Profar hasn’t panned out. The switch-hitting left fielder has just a .231/.315/.372 line with six home runs over 318 plate appearances. His strikeout and walk numbers are solid, but Profar hasn’t hit for power and has rated as a well below-average defender. He’s playing this season on a $7.75MM salary and is unlikely to have much trade appeal.
That’s also true of reliever Pierce Johnson, who signed for $5MM over the winter. The right-hander carries a 6.19 ERA across 32 innings, struggles that pushed him out of the closing role a few weeks ago. Johnson has struck out an excellent 31.8% of opposing hitters while sitting north of 96 MPH on his heater, so perhaps another team could view him as an upside flier in the middle innings. Johnson’s poor ERA and bloated 13.2% walk percentage mean he’s unlikely to bring back much of note, though.
Outfielder Randal Grichuk and first baseman C.J. Cron are veteran stopgap bats. Grichuk has a .294/.357/.429 line with two homers over 196 plate appearances — league average offense after adjusting for Coors Field, as measured by wRC+. He’s capable of covering all three outfield spots but better suited for a corner. Cron lost a good chunk of the season to back spasms, returning a few days ago. The right-handed hitter has managed only a .231/.277/.420 line in 38 games this year. Cron came up just short of 30 homers in both 2021 and ’22, but he’s had a tough first few months.
The other two impending free agents, Charlie Blackmon and Brent Suter, are currently on the injured list. Blackmon has full no-trade rights and is making $15MM. He’s very unlikely to move. Suter, claimed off waivers last winter, has a 2.81 ERA across 41 2/3 innings of relief. The control specialist could draw some attention if healthy, but he just landed on the IL with a strained left oblique.
Colorado’s top realistic trade candidate might be another left-handed bullpen arm, Brad Hand. Signed to a $3MM free agent deal, the three-time All-Star has a 3.62 ERA over 27 1/3 frames. Hand has an above-average 28.1% strikeout rate despite a modest 9.5% swinging strike percentage.
Hand isn’t a true rental, as his contract contains a $7MM team option for next season. Heyman suggests the Rockies are likely to gauge the market on Hand, though. That’s not too surprising, since that option price is probably a bit beyond the veteran’s market value. If he’s traded, the option would convert to a mutual provision.
None of the Rockies’ impending free agents would bring back a significant prospect return. That’s probably also true of Bard, even though the veteran has a sterling 2.05 ERA across 26 1/3 innings. Bard opened the season on the injured list due to anxiety issues that have affected him at times throughout his career.
He has been on the active roster since mid-April but struggled to find the strike zone consistently. Bard has walked just under 20% of opponents, nearly double last season’s rate. At age 38 and due a $9.5MM salary next year, the right-hander would be a risky target for contenders even if the Rockies put him on the market.
Rockies Notes: Profar, Bard, Hollowell
Jurickson Profar made his Rockies debut in today’s 3-1 loss to the Padres, and as fate would have it, Profar’s first game with his new team happened to be against his former team. Playing with the Padres “was everything to me,” Profar told Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune, and seemed to express some regret over opting out of his $7.5MM player option to stay with the Padres in 2023. “If I was a normal free agent, not opting out, it’s different. Opting out and free agency taking that long, I always wanted to stay….I didn’t want to (opt out), but I did,” Profar said.
The entry into free agency took a long time to resolve, as Profar didn’t reach an agreement with Colorado until March 19 on a one-year, $7.75MM deal. Rockies hitting coach Hensley Meulens was a key recruiter in the process, as Meulens has been a longtime mentor to Profar dating back to the earliest days of his baseball career in Curacao, and Meulens managed Profar as part of the Netherlands’ team in the World Baseball Classic. Profar is looking forward to now joining Meulens in the majors, and getting off a fresh start with his new organization.
More from the Mile High City, as the Rockies are 2-2 following their split of the season-opening series with the Padres…
- Manager Bud Black told media (including MLB.com) that Daniel Bard threw a bullpen on Saturday, and hit 96mph during the session. It’s a positive sign for the veteran reliever, who began the 2023 campaign on the 15-day injured list due to a return of the anxiety issues that put Bard’s career on hold for several seasons. There isn’t yet any timetable for Bard’s return, as naturally the Rockies will give him all the time he needs.
- The Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes placed Gavin Hollowell on the 10-day minor league IL today, and Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette (Twitter link) reports that the right-hander is dealing with forearm tightness. While the severity of the injury isn’t yet known, any sort of forearm issue is naturally troubling for a pitcher, and it adds to a tough week of news for Hollowell — Allentuck notes that he just missed out on a spot in Colorado’s Opening Day bullpen. A sixth-round pick for the Rockies in the 2019 draft, Hollowell made his MLB debut last season, posting a 7.71 ERA in seven innings over six appearances. MLB Pipeline ranks Hollowell as the 24th-best prospect in the Rockies’ farm system, and feels the 6’7″ reliever’s strikeout potential gives him promise, though his control is a work in progress.
Daniel Bard To Begin Season On Injured List
Rockies right-hander Daniel Bard is going to begin the season on the injured list due to anxiety, reports Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette (Twitter links). Righty Jake Bird has been recalled to take Bard’s place on the active roster. Allentuck adds that outfielder Jurickson Profar is not yet with the team in San Diego, though he can’t be replaced on the active roster.
“It’s a hard thing to admit,” Bard tells Allentuck. “But I’ve been through this before. I have enough going on outside the game to realize what’s important … I’m extremely grateful to be in an organization that understands these things and is accepting.”
Bard, 38 in June, pitched for the Red Sox from 2009 to 2013 but a case of “the yips” caused him to struggle in the latter parts of that span. His walk rate shot up to 15.5% in 2012 and then was even worse the year after. He only made a couple of appearances at the big league level in 2013 before getting sent to the minors, eventually walking a third of opponents down on the farm the rest of the way.
He didn’t pitch in the majors for many years but resurfaced with the Rockies in 2020. He posted a 3.65 ERA in 23 appearances that season, striking out 25.5% of batters faced, walking 9.4% of them and getting grounders at a 48.5% clip. He took a bit of a step back in 2021, with his walk rate jumping to 11.8% and his ERA spiking to 5.21%. But he got back on track tremendously in 2022, with a 1.79 ERA and 10.2% walk rate. He also struck out 28.2% of batters faced, got grounders on 51.7% of balls in play and racked up 34 saves on the year. His name popped up in some trade rumors as he was set to his free agency after last year, but he and the Rockies agreed to a two-year, $19MM extension.
Though the Rockies surely don’t want to be without their closer, Bard’s comments indicate that they’re prioritizing his health now that his anxiety has reoccured. Thomas Harding of MLB.com relays that Bard is still with the team and doing his normal throwing. That means it’s possible he’ll return whenever he feels he has his anxiety managed. MLBTR wishes him the best in that process.
Quickly turning to Profar, he didn’t have much of a spring because he was playing with Team Netherlands during the World Baseball Classic while still unsigned. He eventually signed with the Rockies but was delayed in joining the club in camp due to visa issues. He eventually did report to the team’s facilities in Arizona and is apparently still there, per Harding, continuing to get at-bats in minor league games. Harding adds that the decision on when Profar joins will be done “by feel.” It seems the club will play with a shortened three-man bench until then.
NL West Notes: Gonsolin, Profar, Senzatela, Cron, Cobb, D’backs
Tony Gonsolin suffered an ankle sprain earlier this month, and the injury is already set to place the right-hander on the 15-day injured list to begin the season. The Dodgers have yet to share a more specific recovery timeline for Gonsolin, but The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya writes that late April probably represents the earliest we could see Gonsolin make his 2023 debut. On Friday, Gonsolin did some mound work for the first time since his ankle injury.
Losing a pitcher of Gonsolin’s caliber for at least a month isn’t news for the Dodgers, but the team is better equipped than most to withstand such a significant loss to the rotation. Los Angeles had a pair of promising young arms competing for the right to be Gonsolin’s replacement, with Ryan Pepiot getting the nod over Michael Grove. Pepiot will get a chance to build on the 36 1/3 innings he threw in his MLB debut season, and establish himself as the team’s top depth option in the event of future injuries.
More from around the NL West…
- Jurickson Profar finally left the free agent market when he signed with the Rockies last week, but the outfielder has yet to actually join his new club due to visa issues, manager Bud Black told The Denver Gazette’s Danielle Allentuck and other reporters. Profar is still in his native Curacao and slated to visit the consulate on Monday, with the hopes of being able to join the Rox in time for Opening Day. It is possible Profar might still need some ramp-up time during extended Spring Training given that he only recently signed, but Profar is at least in game shape, after playing with the Netherlands during the World Baseball Classic.
- Sticking with the Rockies, Antonio Senzatela‘s recovery from ACL surgery hit another key checkpoint yesterday, when the righty faced hitters for the first time. Senzatela is expected to return to the Rockies sometime in May, and he told MLB.com’s Thomas Harding that after yesterday’s 20-pitch session, “I feel like I’m getting closer…My knee is feeling good, everything is feeling good.” In more immediate injury news, Black told Harding and other reporters that C.J. Cron could return to the lineup as soon as today, as the first baseman has missed the last 10 days due to back spasms.
- Alex Cobb has been slowed by a knee contusion suffered after Miguel Vargas lined a ball off the Giants right-hander’s knee on March 11. Cobb told Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle that the swelling has now also moved up into Cobb’s hamstring area, but the veteran righty got through a bullpen session with no issue yesterday. Barring any setback, Cobb is still penciled in to start against the Yankees on April 1, with a simulated game planned as his last ramp-up outing prior to the regular season.
- From injury updates to roster battles, as the Diamondbacks still have to identify their fifth starter and the final two spots in their bullpen. The two battles are somewhat intertwined, as Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic writes that with Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson competing for the final rotation job, whomever isn’t used as a starter could take one of the two bullpen roles. Carlos Vargas, Peter Solomon, and Ryan Hendrix are also competing for spots in the relief corps. [UPDATE: Nelson has been named the fifth starter and Jameson will take one of the bullpen jobs, Piecoro tweets. Solomon is out of the running for a relief role, as the D’Backs reassigned him to their minor league camp.]
Rockies Sign Jurickson Profar
March 21: The Rockies officially announced today that they have signed Profar to a one-year deal. To open a spot on the 40-man roster, left-hander Lucas Gilbreath was transferred to the 60-day injured list. The southpaw underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this month and will miss the entire season.
March 19: The Rockies are in agreement with free agent outfielder Jurickson Profar, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Profar will be guaranteed $7.75MM but can get the total up to $8.75MM with 400 plate appearances. The deal is pending a physical.
Profar, 30, has had an up-and-down career but is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Though his power is fairly modest, he has a good eye and strong bat-to-ball skills. His 11.1% walk rate and 15.7% strikeout rate this year were both a few percentage points better than league averages. Along with his 15 home runs, that led to a .243/.331/.391 batting line and a 110 wRC+, indicating the switch-hitter was 10% better than the league average hitter overall.
Defensively, though he’s played all over the diamond in his career, the Padres kept him exclusively in left field last year. That consistency may have suited him, as he was given a +2 grade from Defensive Runs Saved and a +1.1 from Ultimate Zone Rating, though Outs Above Average was less enthused and gave him a mark of -5. Taking his whole season together, FanGraphs considered him to be worth 2.5 wins above replacement, the highest tally of his career thus far.
Going into the 2021 season, the Padres had signed Profar to a three-year, $21MM deal that afforded him the opportunity to opt out after each season. The first year of the deal didn’t go well, as Profar hit just four homers while being bounced around the field in a utility capacity. He declined to trigger his first opt-out and stuck with the Friars for 2022, before having a much better campaign in the second year. Going into the 2022-23 offseason, he had just one year remaining on his deal, valued at $7.5MM. He decided to go for the $1MM buyout and become a free agent, leaving $6.5MM on the table.
Profar continued to linger on the open market for months, the last of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents that was still available until now. Recent reporting had suggested he had been trying to get $10MM per season, but that apparently didn’t materialize based on the fact that he remained unattached for so long. He’ll now settle for a deal a bit below that, though he’ll still end up making a bit more money than if he had just stayed with the Padres.
For the Rockies, they have some question marks in their outfield, as Sean Bouchard recently underwent biceps surgery that could keep him out all year while Randal Grichuk is going to miss the first few weeks of the season due to sports hernia surgery. That leaves Kris Bryant, Yonathan Daza and Charlie Blackmon as the primary options, though Blackmon made more starts at designated hitter last year and seems likely to do the same going forward, especially considering that his 2022 was ended by knee surgery. Daza should have center field spoken for until Grichuk returns, at which point they could split the duties there as they did in 2022. Like Profar, Bryant settled in as a full-time left fielder last year, despite lengthy time on the infield earlier in his career. When Grichuk went down earlier in the spring, Bryant began spending more time in right, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com. That seems to suggest that he could yield left to Profar while splitting right field and the designated hitter spot with Blackmon. Bryant was limited by injury to only 42 games last year, making it sensible to add another corner outfielder into the mix and perhaps reduce his workload on the grass a bit. Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette reports that the plan is indeed for Bryant to be in right with Blackmon primarily serving as the designated hitter.
Though Profar is coming off a decent year, there’s still some risk here for the Rockies, given his inconsistency. Once one of the top prospects in the sport, shoulder injuries kept him from appearing in the big leagues at all in 2014 or 2015. In the next two campaigns, he was healthy but struggled to establish himself in sporadic playing time. He finally had a decent season in 2018 but the Rangers quickly sold high, trading him to Oakland. Unfortunately, he seemed to battle “the yips” with his new team, as he made 11 throwing errors from second base in 2019 and got flipped to San Diego. He was solid enough in the shortened 2020 campaign to earn himself a three-year deal but, as mentioned, struggled in the first before rebounding in the second.
The Rockies will be hoping that another year of having a consistent left field position will allow him to be less mercurial at the plate. It’s also possible that playing in Coors Field will suit him well, given the famously thin atmosphere and large outfield. Perhaps those conditions will allow Profar to launch a few more home runs or simply spray the ball all over the outfield, given his low-strikeout approach. With just 11 days until Opening Day, it might be fair to expect that a player signing now would need a spring ramp-up and wouldn’t be ready for Opening Day. However, Profar might be a different case since he was recently representing the Netherlands in the World Baseball Classic.
The Rockies were already running a franchise-high payroll and this deal will nudge them a bit further into that territory. Roster Resource now pegs their spending at $170MM for the season, well beyond their previous high of $145MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, it’s possible that the final tally ends up below that, as most observers aren’t expecting the Rockies to be contenders this year. Players like Profar, Grichuk and C.J. Cron are impending free agents and make decent salaries, perhaps leading to them becoming trade chips this summer if the Rockies don’t become surprise competitors. Then again, the Rockies have also surprised many onlookers, and their own players, by their lack of trade deadline activity, so that’s no guarantee.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Rockies Showing Interest In Jurickson Profar
The Rockies, suddenly facing multiple outfield injuries, are showing “real interest” in free-agent outfielder Jurickson Profar, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (Twitter link). Over the past month, the Rockies have seen Randal Grichuk undergo surgery for a bilateral sports hernia and Sean Bouchard suffer a biceps rupture that’ll require potentially season-ending surgery.
Colorado’s outfield currently projects to include Kris Bryant, Yonathan Daza, Charlie Blackmon and perhaps younger options like Nolan Jones and Brenton Doyle. Prior to the injuries, however, the 36-year-old Blackmon (37 in July) was slated to serve primarily as a designated hitter in 2023. That could still be the case, as Grichuk is expected back relatively early in the season, but the depth in the outfield isn’t a strong point for the Rockies anyhow — particularly with Bouchard facing a lengthy absence.
Bryant, signed to a seven-year, $182MM contract last offseason, was limited to just 42 games last season by a series of back injuries and a bout with plantar fasciitis. Daza, entering his fourth big league season, has never topped 113 games during an MLB campaign. He missed time with a dislocated shoulder in 2022 and a fractured thumb in 2021. Blackmon tore the meniscus in his left knee late in the 2022 season, and Grichuk, as previously noted, is currently on the mend from surgery.
A deal with Profar, then, makes some sense. He’s typically been deployed as a left fielder in recent seasons, which could push Bryant over to right field, where he perhaps uncoincidentally has been seeing increased time this spring after spending all of his time in left field last year. Thomas Harding of MLB.com wrote last week that manager Bud Black approached Bryant about the idea of spending more time in the opposite corner early in spring training, and Bryant is open to the idea.
Profar was an infielder earlier in his career and, at one point, rated as the top prospect in all of baseball while rising through the Rangers’ system as a shortstop. He’s twice had shoulder surgery since that time, however, which eventually prompted a move to the other side of the second base bag. Following a trade to the A’s, Profar developed a case of the yips at second base and was eventually moved to left field, where he’s played almost exclusively with the Padres over the past couple seasons.
Profar hasn’t been a standout performer at the plate, but over the past three seasons he’s combined for a respectable .244/.333/.375 batting line with a 10.8% walk rate and just a 15.4% strikeout rate. He hasn’t hit for much power but has shown strong bat-to-ball skills with a keen eye at the plate. Defensively, his work in outfield has been slightly above-average, per Defensive Runs Saved, and a bit below average, per Statcast. It’s still a relatively new position for him, however, and it’s fair to think that a former plus defender at shortstop could continue to hone his skills in left and become a quality defender there.
The question for the Rockies could come down to one of payroll. Roster Resource projects a $163MM payroll for the Rockies, which is already a franchise record. While Profar’s current asking price isn’t clear, he declined a $7.5MM player option with the Padres following the 2023 season, and The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty recently reported that he was at one point looking for $10MM per season. Whether his asking price has dipped and/or whether the Rockies would meet that level remain to be seen, but the mere fact that they’re showing legitimate interest is an indicator that owner Dick Monfort is at least willing to further boost the currently projected record payroll to at least some extent.
Revisiting The Best Fits For Jurickson Profar
Jurickson Profar was one of just three players on our annual Top 50 free-agent list here at MLBTR who hadn’t agreed to terms on a new contract prior to the calendar flipping to 2023. Two months later, Profar is still a free agent and, unsurprisingly, is the final unsigned member of that same top 50 list.
It’s fair to wonder just how aggressive he and agent Scott Boras were early in the winter. Profar began his offseason by declining a $7.5MM player option. While he never seemed likely to sign any kind of mega-deal, even as someone who’s more bearish on the player than many, I anticipated that he’d surpass that level of compensation. We put a relatively modest two-year, $20MM prediction on Profar’s eventual contract, but MLBTR was lower than many on the veteran switch-hitter; the New York Post’s Jon Heyman put down a four-year, $48MM estimate, and The Athletic’s Keith Law pegged him at $15-18MM annually over a term of three to four years. To be clear, the intent in highlighting those predictions is not to criticize them — we’ve had more than our share of misses in this regard — but rather to highlight that there was a wide range of outcomes that onlookers viewed as reasonable with regard to Profar.
Whatever contract Profar and Boras sought clearly hasn’t been there to this point. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic wrote this morning that Profar was at one point seeking a contract that’d pay him $10MM per season. It’s worth emphasizing that Kuty doesn’t specify whether that’s a current asking price or whether it’s on a multi-year pact. Regardless, Profar turned down a $7.5MM deal to remain in San Diego, so it’s not a huge shock to see there’s been a point where his camp was eyeing an eight-figure annual salary.
It’s hard to imagine Profar securing that $10MM AAV at this point, even on a one-year deal. Prices on recent free-agent signings have been more modest than early in the winter. Late signees like Matt Moore ($7.55MM), David Peralta ($6.5MM), Andrew Chafin ($6.25MM), Michael Fulmer ($4MM), Elvis Andrus ($3MM), Brad Hand ($2MM), Robbie Grossman ($2MM) and Will Smith ($1.5MM) have all come in south of that $10MM sum. No free agent has reached a $10MM AAV since Carlos Correa finalized his deal to return to the Twins on Jan. 11.
Perhaps Profar can yet buck that trend. He only just turned 30 and is coming off a decent 2022 season in which he batted .243/.331/.391 with 15 home runs and a career-high 36 doubles. He has above-average bat-to-ball skills, has upped his walk rate over the past couple seasons, and generally graded as an average or slightly worse defender in left field for the Padres.
That last point, in particular, is worth expanding on a bit. Many onlookers have wondered why Profar hasn’t emerged as a more viable option for the many teams in need of infield help. Profar, after all, was the game’s No. 1 overall prospect a decade ago when he was rising through the Rangers’ ranks as a shortstop. However, he’s since had a pair of shoulder surgeries, moved to the other side of the second base bag, and (during his time with the A’s) developed a case of the yips that eventually pushed him to left field.
The A’s traded Profar to San Diego after just one year, and the Padres gave him all of 197 innings at second base from 2020-22 — none of which came this past season. The Friars were shorthanded enough in the infield that they signed Robinson Cano after he was released by the Mets on the heels of a .195/.233/.268 showing. That they were content to give that version of Cano 40 innings at second base but didn’t move Profar into the infield isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of his ability to play the position.
At this point, it’s hard to consider Profar anything other than a left fielder. He’s played 156 innings of center in the big leagues (2020-21 in San Diego) and 208 innings in right field (again, 2020-21 with the Padres), but neither sample drew strong or even average ratings. Profar’s average sprint speed, per Statcast, was in the 32nd percentile of MLB players in 2022. His outfield jumps were in the 37th percentile, and his 87 mph average velocity on his throws from left field ranked 95th among 156 qualified outfielders. With limited speed, below-average jumps and below-average arm strength, center or right could be a stretch for Profar.
Profar is a switch-hitter with slightly better-than-average results at the plate, modest defensive upside in left field and perhaps an emergency infield option. He walks at a high clip and puts the ball in play far more often than the standard big league hitter. The quality of that contact isn’t particularly strong (87.5 mph exit velocity, 34.3% hard-hit rate, 4% barrel rate), but there’s something to be said for just putting the ball in play — particularly as shifts are more limited in 2023 and beyond. A slightly above-average offensive left fielder isn’t a star, but it’s a solid player. Jean Segura has a similar skill set in the infield, and he received $17MM on a two-year deal.
Even that type of deal might be out of reach at this point, but assuming Profar can still land a one- or two-year deal in the near future, he can obviously help a club in search of some corner outfield reinforcements. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look back in early January at which teams made the most sense for Profar based on their lack of left field production in 2022, but it seems like an exercise worth revisiting. The market and many rosters have changed since that time. Profar is now the only viable regular remaining in free agency, and several teams that might’ve made sense as a suitor back on Jan. 2 look less likely to add him now. The Rangers, for instance, have since signed Robbie Grossman. The Marlins moved Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center and acquired Luis Arraez to play second, which means they’ll stick with Jesus Sanchez and Bryan De La Cruz in left.
Let’s take a look at some clubs that still seem like they could use in left field — and perhaps why those teams haven’t yet more earnestly pursued Profar. He’d likely require somewhere that can grant him mostly regular playing time, which makes the incumbent Padres a tough fit once Fernando Tatis Jr. returns and joins Juan Soto and Trent Grisham in the outfield.
Postseason Hopefuls
- Yankees: The Yankees are one of the most oft-cited — if not the most oft-cited — speculative fits for Profar. It’s not hard to see why, considering their left fielders combined for a .224/.312/.391 output last season. Oft-injured Aaron Hicks, still owed three years and $30.5MM on his contract, and young Oswaldo Cabrera are the two favorites. The latter outproduced the former by a wide margin last season, but Hicks’ contract will probably get him another look. The Yankees are loath to step into the fourth and final luxury-tax tier, however, and signing Profar (or just about anyone, really) will put them into that bracket and come with a 90% dollar-for-dollar hit on any contract. There’s also no clear indication that Profar is a huge upgrade over in-house options. His .243/.331/.391 slash line last year isn’t that different from the .224/.312/.391 output for which the Yankees combined. Yes, Profar’s numbers would probably tick up a bit playing his home games at Yankee Stadium instead of Petco Park. But even the Yankees’ tepid left field production last year was good for a 103 wRC+; Profar was at 110 himself.
- Braves: Atlanta’s left fielders hit .238/.285/.431 in 2022, and that includes a combined 175 productive plate appearances from Adam Duvall, Robbie Grossman and William Contreras, none of whom are on the team any longer. Veterans Marcell Ozuna (.226/.274/.413 in 2022) and Eddie Rosario (.212/.259/.328) are the primary options here, with Sam Hilliard, Jordan Luplow, Eli White and non-roster invitees Kevin Pillar and Magneuris Sierra providing depth. There’s clearly room for an upgrade, but the Braves are paying Ozuna and Rosario a combined $27MM in 2023 and probably don’t want to sign a third left fielder to add to that sum. More broadly, the Braves just haven’t spent much of anything in free agency this winter; their lone big roster splash was a trade bringing Sean Murphy in from the A’s. They’re into the first tier of luxury territory, so Profar would cost them 20% penalty on top of his contract.
- Rays: Tampa Bay has been looking for a left-handed bat for much of the winter. Profar would help to balance out the lineup, likely splitting time with Randy Arozarena in left field and at designated hitter. That could cut into Harold Ramirez‘s playing time or push him to first base more often, with Yandy Diaz sliding back to third (at the expense of Isaac Paredes). As with most Rays moves, it’d require a whole lot of moving parts and likely push some MLB-worthy bats off the roster and into the upper minors to serve as depth in the event of injuries. Profar’s offensive upside is limited, so the Rays probably feel confident they can match it with in-house options. The likely price tag hurts as well.
- Rangers: The Rangers already signed Grossman, so perhaps they have no interest in adding another outfielder. Grossman’s not a clear everyday option in left field, though, and center fielder Leody Taveras is a little banged up, which could push Adolis Garcia from right to center early in the season. If Texas had a clear option at DH, this wouldn’t work as well, but they don’t. The Rangers could add Profar, go with him/Taveras/Garcia across the outfield when everyone’s at full strength, and use Grossman as a reserve corner outfielder and part-time DH.
Rebuilding Clubs
- Royals: Kansas City doesn’t have a single established outfielder on the roster. They’ll go with a combination of Edward Olivares, Kyle Isbel, Nate Eaton, catcher/outfielder MJ Melendez, corner bat Hunter Dozier and, once healthy, former top prospect Drew Waters. Olivares, Isbel, Eaton, Melendez and Waters all have minor league options remaining. Non-roster vets like Franmil Reyes and Jackie Bradley Jr. could eventually impact this group, too, but there’s room for a solid veteran right now. Then again, the Royals waited until they’d cleared the salaries of Adalberto Mondesi and Michael A. Taylor in respective trades with the Red Sox and Twins before they even brought righty Zack Greinke back on a one-year, $8.5MM contract. They may not want to or have ownership permission to sign another free agent with a notable salary.
- Reds: The Reds will cycle through Wil Myers, TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, Will Benson, Nick Solak, Stuart Fairchild and perhaps non-roster veteran Chad Pinder in the outfield corners this season. Myers will see his share of time at first base, too, as Joey Votto recovers from 2022 shoulder surgery. Friedl and particularly Fraley hit well enough last year that it’s understandable if Cincinnati wants to get them some extra looks, but Fraley has been on the IL five times in the past three seasons, including a 60-day IL stint last year for knee troubles. Center fielder Nick Senzel has also had repeated health troubles. Signing Profar deepens the lineup and adds a potential deadline chip for a rebuilding Cincinnati club, but the Reds have spent under $14MM in free agency and probably view Myers as the lone corner-outfield addition they’d prefer to make.
- Tigers: The Detroit outfield is composed largely of rebound candidates, where each of Akil Baddoo, Austin Meadows and top prospect Riley Greene will look for better results in 2023 than they had in 2022. Twenty-five-year-old Kerry Carpenter will also get his share of opportunity after a blasting 36 homers between the upper-minors and MLB. Reserve option Matt Vierling can and will at times handle all three outfield spots. From a depth standpoint, prospects Parker Meadows (Austin’s younger brother) and Justyn-Henry Malloy could both reach the big leagues in 2023, but Meadows hasn’t played above Double-A and Malloy has only eight games there.
Realistically, you could squint and shoehorn Profar onto a number of teams. He’s not going to be so highly compensated that he couldn’t be pushed to a bench role eventually or even traded, and enough teams have at least one shaky option in the outfield corners that you could justify signing him as an upgrade. At this point, it could take a spring injury to really motivate a team to sign him at a decent salary, though.
The other element at play here is the looming World Baseball Classic. Profar, a native of Curacao, is suiting up for the Netherlands and could look to use the tournament to showcase himself for MLB clubs. The WBC will give him some reps to help get ready for the season, and it’s possible that a big league team will suffer an outfield injury while the tournament is ongoing. If that happens, Profar could pitch himself as a game-ready replacement who could join up with a new team and be ready to step right onto the Opening Day roster.
NL Central Notes: Taylor, Cubs, Reynolds, Chandler
Tyrone Taylor‘s recovery from an elbow sprain isn’t going as well as hoped, Brewers manager Craig Counsell tells Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. The team first revealed Taylor’s injury last week and said Taylor would miss at least the first two weeks of spring games, but a more pessimistic update with games already underway clouds the 28-year-old’s readiness for Opening Day.
“We’re not any closer,” Counsell said. “As we move on here, we’re starting to be concerned for sure because we want to get him started and he’s not doing any baseball activities, and we don’t have any on the horizon.”
Taylor, 29, hit .233/.286/.442 through a career-high 405 plate appearances last season, showing plenty of pop and a good glove across all three outfield spots, which helped to offset an OBP that ranked 181st among the 205 players who tallied at least 400 plate appearances. Taylor’s right-handed bat, on paper anyway, pairs nicely with lefty-swinging outfielders like Christian Yelich, Jesse Winker and Garrett Mitchell. If the club wants to keep a right-handed bat in the outfield mix, offseason signee Brian Anderson could move from third base into right field, freeing some early time for Luis Urias at third base. Prospect Brice Turang could take second base if he makes the team, but Abraham Toro and Owen Miller could also see some time at the keystone.
There’s plenty of versatility for the Brewers to mix-and-match on the roster, which has been a hallmark of their clubs in recent seasons. Milwaukee still hasn’t provided a firm update as to when Taylor might realistically be able to get back into a game, but with Opening Day just over a month away and rehab not progressing well, an IL stint to begin the season is possible.
A few more notes from the division…
- The Cubs haven’t provided a clear timetable for how long Seiya Suzuki‘s strained oblique might keep him out of action — though the injury is notable enough that Suzuki has withdrawn from the World Baseball Classic. However, even in the event of some missed time, free agent Jurickson Profar isn’t a likely option for the Cubs, writes Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. The team is about $8MM shy of the $233MM luxury-tax barrier and doesn’t seem particularly inclined to cross it at this time, per Mooney, who adds that any remaining resources are likelier to be allocated to the bullpen or be earmarked for potential midseason upgrades on the trade market. If the Cubs are still pondering another addition in the bullpen, some of the top names remaining include Zack Britton, Will Smith, Brad Hand and Corey Knebel.
- Imaging on Matt Reynolds revealed a Grade 1 strain in both of the infielder’s quadriceps muscles, Reds skipper David Bell told reporters (Twitter link). Despite the pair of ailments, Reynolds is only expected to be sidelined for a few days, so he should still be in the running for a bench spot on the Cincinnati roster to begin the season. The 32-year-old appeared in a career-high 93 games for the Reds in 2022 and slashed .246/.320/.332 in 272 plate appearances while appearing at every position on the diamond other than catcher.
- Pirates prospect Bubba Chandler has been told that he will strictly be a pitcher this year, per Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline. A third round draft pick in 2021, he’s been playing both sides of the ball so far in his professional career. He tossed 41 1/3 innings in the minors last year with a 2.61 ERA, striking out 34.7% of batters faced while walking 16.2%. At the plate, however, he hit just .196/.331/.382, walking in 16.1% of his trips to the plate but getting punched out 33.1% of the time. It seems a return to hitting down the line hasn’t been ruled out, but he’ll focus on his mound work for the time being.