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Jurickson Profar

Rockies Showing Interest In Jurickson Profar

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The Rockies, suddenly facing multiple outfield injuries, are showing “real interest” in free-agent outfielder Jurickson Profar, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (Twitter link). Over the past month, the Rockies have seen Randal Grichuk undergo surgery for a bilateral sports hernia and Sean Bouchard suffer a biceps rupture that’ll require potentially season-ending surgery.

Colorado’s outfield currently projects to include Kris Bryant, Yonathan Daza, Charlie Blackmon and perhaps younger options like Nolan Jones and Brenton Doyle. Prior to the injuries, however, the 36-year-old Blackmon (37 in July) was slated to serve primarily as a designated hitter in 2023. That could still be the case, as Grichuk is expected back relatively early in the season, but the depth in the outfield isn’t a strong point for the Rockies anyhow — particularly with Bouchard facing a lengthy absence.

Bryant, signed to a seven-year, $182MM contract last offseason, was limited to just 42 games last season by a series of back injuries and a bout with plantar fasciitis. Daza, entering his fourth big league season, has never topped 113 games during an MLB campaign. He missed time with a dislocated shoulder in 2022 and a fractured thumb in 2021. Blackmon tore the meniscus in his left knee late in the 2022 season, and Grichuk, as previously noted, is currently on the mend from surgery.

A deal with Profar, then, makes some sense. He’s typically been deployed as a left fielder in recent seasons, which could push Bryant over to right field, where he perhaps uncoincidentally has been seeing increased time this spring after spending all of his time in left field last year. Thomas Harding of MLB.com wrote last week that manager Bud Black approached Bryant about the idea of spending more time in the opposite corner early in spring training, and Bryant is open to the idea.

Profar was an infielder earlier in his career and, at one point, rated as the top prospect in all of baseball while rising through the Rangers’ system as a shortstop. He’s twice had shoulder surgery since that time, however, which eventually prompted a move to the other side of the second base bag. Following a trade to the A’s, Profar developed a case of the yips at second base and was eventually moved to left field, where he’s played almost exclusively with the Padres over the past couple seasons.

Profar hasn’t been a standout performer at the plate, but over the past three seasons he’s combined for a respectable .244/.333/.375 batting line with a 10.8% walk rate and just a 15.4% strikeout rate. He hasn’t hit for much power but has shown strong bat-to-ball skills with a keen eye at the plate. Defensively, his work in outfield has been slightly above-average, per Defensive Runs Saved, and a bit below average, per Statcast. It’s still a relatively new position for him, however, and it’s fair to think that a former plus defender at shortstop could continue to hone his skills in left and become a quality defender there.

The question for the Rockies could come down to one of payroll. Roster Resource projects a $163MM payroll for the Rockies, which is already a franchise record. While Profar’s current asking price isn’t clear, he declined a $7.5MM player option with the Padres following the 2023 season, and The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty recently reported that he was at one point looking for $10MM per season. Whether his asking price has dipped and/or whether the Rockies would meet that level remain to be seen, but the mere fact that they’re showing legitimate interest is an indicator that owner Dick Monfort is at least willing to further boost the currently projected record payroll to at least some extent.

Revisiting The Best Fits For Jurickson Profar

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Jurickson Profar was one of just three players on our annual Top 50 free-agent list here at MLBTR who hadn’t agreed to terms on a new contract prior to the calendar flipping to 2023. Two months later, Profar is still a free agent and, unsurprisingly, is the final unsigned member of that same top 50 list.

It’s fair to wonder just how aggressive he and agent Scott Boras were early in the winter. Profar began his offseason by declining a $7.5MM player option. While he never seemed likely to sign any kind of mega-deal, even as someone who’s more bearish on the player than many, I anticipated that he’d surpass that level of compensation. We put a relatively modest two-year, $20MM prediction on Profar’s eventual contract, but MLBTR was lower than many on the veteran switch-hitter; the New York Post’s Jon Heyman put down a four-year, $48MM estimate, and The Athletic’s Keith Law pegged him at $15-18MM annually over a term of three to four years. To be clear, the intent in highlighting those predictions is not to criticize them — we’ve had more than our share of misses in this regard — but rather to highlight that there was a wide range of outcomes that onlookers viewed as reasonable with regard to Profar.

Whatever contract Profar and Boras sought clearly hasn’t been there to this point. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic wrote this morning that Profar was at one point seeking a contract that’d pay him $10MM per season. It’s worth emphasizing that Kuty doesn’t specify whether that’s a current asking price or whether it’s on a multi-year pact. Regardless, Profar turned down a $7.5MM deal to remain in San Diego, so it’s not a huge shock to see there’s been a point where his camp was eyeing an eight-figure annual salary.

It’s hard to imagine Profar securing that $10MM AAV at this point, even on a one-year deal. Prices on recent free-agent signings have been more modest than early in the winter. Late signees like Matt Moore ($7.55MM), David Peralta ($6.5MM), Andrew Chafin ($6.25MM), Michael Fulmer ($4MM), Elvis Andrus ($3MM), Brad Hand ($2MM), Robbie Grossman ($2MM) and Will Smith ($1.5MM) have all come in south of that $10MM sum. No free agent has reached a $10MM AAV since Carlos Correa finalized his deal to return to the Twins on Jan. 11.

Perhaps Profar can yet buck that trend. He only just turned 30 and is coming off a decent 2022 season in which he batted .243/.331/.391 with 15 home runs and a career-high 36 doubles. He has above-average bat-to-ball skills, has upped his walk rate over the past couple seasons, and generally graded as an average or slightly worse defender in left field for the Padres.

That last point, in particular, is worth expanding on a bit. Many onlookers have wondered why Profar hasn’t emerged as a more viable option for the many teams in need of infield help. Profar, after all, was the game’s No. 1 overall prospect a decade ago when he was rising through the Rangers’ ranks as a shortstop. However, he’s since had a pair of shoulder surgeries, moved to the other side of the second base bag, and (during his time with the A’s) developed a case of the yips that eventually pushed him to left field.

The A’s traded Profar to San Diego after just one year, and the Padres gave him all of 197 innings at second base from 2020-22 — none of which came this past season. The Friars were shorthanded enough in the infield that they signed Robinson Cano after he was released by the Mets on the heels of a .195/.233/.268 showing. That they were content to give that version of Cano 40 innings at second base but didn’t move Profar into the infield isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of his ability to play the position.

At this point, it’s hard to consider Profar anything other than a left fielder. He’s played 156 innings of center in the big leagues (2020-21 in San Diego) and 208 innings in right field (again, 2020-21 with the Padres), but neither sample drew strong or even average ratings. Profar’s average sprint speed, per Statcast, was in the 32nd percentile of MLB players in 2022. His outfield jumps were in the 37th percentile, and his 87 mph average velocity on his throws from left field ranked 95th among 156 qualified outfielders. With limited speed, below-average jumps and below-average arm strength, center or right could be a stretch for Profar.

Profar is a switch-hitter with slightly better-than-average results at the plate, modest defensive upside in left field and perhaps an emergency infield option. He walks at a high clip and puts the ball in play far more often than the standard big league hitter. The quality of that contact isn’t particularly strong (87.5 mph exit velocity, 34.3% hard-hit rate, 4% barrel rate), but there’s something to be said for just putting the ball in play — particularly as shifts are more limited in 2023 and beyond. A slightly above-average offensive left fielder isn’t a star, but it’s a solid player. Jean Segura has a similar skill set in the infield, and he received $17MM on a two-year deal.

Even that type of deal might be out of reach at this point, but assuming Profar can still land a one- or two-year deal in the near future, he can obviously help a club in search of some corner outfield reinforcements. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look back in early January at which teams made the most sense for Profar based on their lack of left field production in 2022, but it seems like an exercise worth revisiting. The market and many rosters have changed since that time. Profar is now the only viable regular remaining in free agency, and several teams that might’ve made sense as a suitor back on Jan. 2 look less likely to add him now. The Rangers, for instance, have since signed Robbie Grossman. The Marlins moved Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center and acquired Luis Arraez to play second, which means they’ll stick with Jesus Sanchez and Bryan De La Cruz in left.

Let’s take a look at some clubs that still seem like they could use in left field — and perhaps why those teams haven’t yet more earnestly pursued Profar. He’d likely require somewhere that can grant him mostly regular playing time, which makes the incumbent Padres a tough fit once Fernando Tatis Jr. returns and joins Juan Soto and Trent Grisham in the outfield.

Postseason Hopefuls

  • Yankees: The Yankees are one of the most oft-cited — if not the most oft-cited — speculative fits for Profar. It’s not hard to see why, considering their left fielders combined for a .224/.312/.391 output last season. Oft-injured Aaron Hicks, still owed three years and $30.5MM on his contract, and young Oswaldo Cabrera are the two favorites. The latter outproduced the former by a wide margin last season, but Hicks’ contract will probably get him another look. The Yankees are loath to step into the fourth and final luxury-tax tier, however, and signing Profar (or just about anyone, really) will put them into that bracket and come with a 90% dollar-for-dollar hit on any contract. There’s also no clear indication that Profar is a huge upgrade over in-house options. His .243/.331/.391 slash line last year isn’t that different from the .224/.312/.391 output for which the Yankees combined. Yes, Profar’s numbers would probably tick up a bit playing his home games at Yankee Stadium instead of Petco Park. But even the Yankees’ tepid left field production last year was good for a 103 wRC+; Profar was at 110 himself.
  • Braves: Atlanta’s left fielders hit .238/.285/.431 in 2022, and that includes a combined 175 productive plate appearances from Adam Duvall, Robbie Grossman and William Contreras, none of whom are on the team any longer. Veterans Marcell Ozuna (.226/.274/.413 in 2022) and Eddie Rosario (.212/.259/.328) are the primary options here, with Sam Hilliard, Jordan Luplow, Eli White and non-roster invitees Kevin Pillar and Magneuris Sierra providing depth. There’s clearly room for an upgrade, but the Braves are paying Ozuna and Rosario a combined $27MM in 2023 and probably don’t want to sign a third left fielder to add to that sum. More broadly, the Braves just haven’t spent much of anything in free agency this winter; their lone big roster splash was a trade bringing Sean Murphy in from the A’s. They’re into the first tier of luxury territory, so Profar would cost them 20% penalty on top of his contract.
  • Rays: Tampa Bay has been looking for a left-handed bat for much of the winter. Profar would help to balance out the lineup, likely splitting time with Randy Arozarena in left field and at designated hitter. That could cut into Harold Ramirez’s playing time or push him to first base more often, with Yandy Diaz sliding back to third (at the expense of Isaac Paredes). As with most Rays moves, it’d require a whole lot of moving parts and likely push some MLB-worthy bats off the roster and into the upper minors to serve as depth in the event of injuries. Profar’s offensive upside is limited, so the Rays probably feel confident they can match it with in-house options. The likely price tag hurts as well.
  • Rangers: The Rangers already signed Grossman, so perhaps they have no interest in adding another outfielder. Grossman’s not a clear everyday option in left field, though, and center fielder Leody Taveras is a little banged up, which could push Adolis Garcia from right to center early in the season. If Texas had a clear option at DH, this wouldn’t work as well, but they don’t. The Rangers could add Profar, go with him/Taveras/Garcia across the outfield when everyone’s at full strength, and use Grossman as a reserve corner outfielder and part-time DH.

Rebuilding Clubs

  • Royals: Kansas City doesn’t have a single established outfielder on the roster. They’ll go with a combination of Edward Olivares, Kyle Isbel, Nate Eaton, catcher/outfielder MJ Melendez, corner bat Hunter Dozier and, once healthy, former top prospect Drew Waters. Olivares, Isbel, Eaton, Melendez and Waters all have minor league options remaining. Non-roster vets like Franmil Reyes and Jackie Bradley Jr. could eventually impact this group, too, but there’s room for a solid veteran right now. Then again, the Royals waited until they’d cleared the salaries of Adalberto Mondesi and Michael A. Taylor in respective trades with the Red Sox and Twins before they even brought righty Zack Greinke back on a one-year, $8.5MM contract. They may not want to or have ownership permission to sign another free agent with a notable salary.
  • Reds: The Reds will cycle through Wil Myers, TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, Will Benson, Nick Solak, Stuart Fairchild and perhaps non-roster veteran Chad Pinder in the outfield corners this season. Myers will see his share of time at first base, too, as Joey Votto recovers from 2022 shoulder surgery. Friedl and particularly Fraley hit well enough last year that it’s understandable if Cincinnati wants to get them some extra looks, but Fraley has been on the IL five times in the past three seasons, including a 60-day IL stint last year for knee troubles. Center fielder Nick Senzel has also had repeated health troubles. Signing Profar deepens the lineup and adds a potential deadline chip for a rebuilding Cincinnati club, but the Reds have spent under $14MM in free agency and probably view Myers as the lone corner-outfield addition they’d prefer to make.
  • Tigers: The Detroit outfield is composed largely of rebound candidates, where each of Akil Baddoo, Austin Meadows and top prospect Riley Greene will look for better results in 2023 than they had in 2022. Twenty-five-year-old Kerry Carpenter will also get his share of opportunity after a blasting 36 homers between the upper-minors and MLB. Reserve option Matt Vierling can and will at times handle all three outfield spots. From a depth standpoint, prospects Parker Meadows (Austin’s younger brother) and Justyn-Henry Malloy could both reach the big leagues in 2023, but Meadows hasn’t played above Double-A and Malloy has only eight games there.

Realistically, you could squint and shoehorn Profar onto a number of teams. He’s not going to be so highly compensated that he couldn’t be pushed to a bench role eventually or even traded, and enough teams have at least one shaky option in the outfield corners that you could justify signing him as an upgrade. At this point, it could take a spring injury to really motivate a team to sign him at a decent salary, though.

The other element at play here is the looming World Baseball Classic. Profar, a native of Curacao, is suiting up for the Netherlands and could look to use the tournament to showcase himself for MLB clubs. The WBC will give him some reps to help get ready for the season, and it’s possible that a big league team will suffer an outfield injury while the tournament is ongoing. If that happens, Profar could pitch himself as a game-ready replacement who could join up with a new team and be ready to step right onto the Opening Day roster.

NL Central Notes: Taylor, Cubs, Reynolds, Chandler

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Tyrone Taylor’s recovery from an elbow sprain isn’t going as well as hoped, Brewers manager Craig Counsell tells Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. The team first revealed Taylor’s injury last week and said Taylor would miss at least the first two weeks of spring games, but a more pessimistic update with games already underway clouds the 28-year-old’s readiness for Opening Day.

“We’re not any closer,” Counsell said. “As we move on here, we’re starting to be concerned for sure because we want to get him started and he’s not doing any baseball activities, and we don’t have any on the horizon.”

Taylor, 29, hit .233/.286/.442 through a career-high 405 plate appearances last season, showing plenty of pop and a good glove across all three outfield spots, which helped to offset an OBP that ranked 181st among the 205 players who tallied at least 400 plate appearances. Taylor’s right-handed bat, on paper anyway, pairs nicely with lefty-swinging outfielders like Christian Yelich, Jesse Winker and Garrett Mitchell. If the club wants to keep a right-handed bat in the outfield mix, offseason signee Brian Anderson could move from third base into right field, freeing some early time for Luis Urias at third base. Prospect Brice Turang could take second base if he makes the team, but Abraham Toro and Owen Miller could also see some time at the keystone.

There’s plenty of versatility for the Brewers to mix-and-match on the roster, which has been a hallmark of their clubs in recent seasons. Milwaukee still hasn’t provided a firm update as to when Taylor might realistically be able to get back into a game, but with Opening Day just over a month away and rehab not progressing well, an IL stint to begin the season is possible.

A few more notes from the division…

  • The Cubs haven’t provided a clear timetable for how long Seiya Suzuki’s strained oblique might keep him out of action — though the injury is notable enough that Suzuki has withdrawn from the World Baseball Classic. However, even in the event of some missed time, free agent Jurickson Profar isn’t a likely option for the Cubs, writes Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. The team is about $8MM shy of the $233MM luxury-tax barrier and doesn’t seem particularly inclined to cross it at this time, per Mooney, who adds that any remaining resources are likelier to be allocated to the bullpen or be earmarked for potential midseason upgrades on the trade market. If the Cubs are still pondering another addition in the bullpen, some of the top names remaining include Zack Britton, Will Smith, Brad Hand and Corey Knebel.
  • Imaging on Matt Reynolds revealed a Grade 1 strain in both of the infielder’s quadriceps muscles, Reds skipper David Bell told reporters (Twitter link). Despite the pair of ailments, Reynolds is only expected to be sidelined for a few days, so he should still be in the running for a bench spot on the Cincinnati roster to begin the season. The 32-year-old appeared in a career-high 93 games for the Reds in 2022 and slashed .246/.320/.332 in 272 plate appearances while appearing at every position on the diamond other than catcher.
  • Pirates prospect Bubba Chandler has been told that he will strictly be a pitcher this year, per Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline. A third round draft pick in 2021, he’s been playing both sides of the ball so far in his professional career. He tossed 41 1/3 innings in the minors last year with a 2.61 ERA, striking out 34.7% of batters faced while walking 16.2%. At the plate, however, he hit just .196/.331/.382, walking in 16.1% of his trips to the plate but getting punched out 33.1% of the time. It seems a return to hitting down the line hasn’t been ruled out, but he’ll focus on his mound work for the time being.

Poll: Who Signs First, Jurickson Profar Or Michael Wacha?

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Essentially from the moment MLB Trade Rumors published our annual top 50 free agents list, players immediately started flying off the board.  While the last few non-lockout offseasons saw a slowed free agent market, many of the biggest names of the 2022-23 class had already found new teams by the start of January…give or take Carlos Correa’s three-team saga, of course.  Now that Andrew Chafin has agreed to a deal with the Diamondbacks, only two players from that top-50 listing remain unsigned as Spring Training dawns: Jurickson Profar (ranked 33rd) and Michael Wacha (41st).

Profar voluntarily chose to test the open market, as he exercised an opt-out clause in his contract with the Padres.  Entering the third and final year of that deal, Profar took a $1MM buyout rather than the $7.5MM owed to him in 2023, thus making a $6.5MM bet that he could find a longer-term and more lucrative deal in free agency.  MLBTR agreed, projecting Profar for a two-year, $20MM deal.

Such a contract has yet to emerge for Profar, despite plenty of interest.  The Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Marlins, Rangers, and Orioles have all been linked to Profar at various points this offseason, though Houston and Boston have seemingly already addressed needs in left field.  The other reported suitors have somewhat clearer needs in left field, even if in-house options abound for all four teams.  Other factors may also be at play for particular teams — for example, the Yankees are very close to surpassing the top luxury tax threshold ($293MM), and reportedly don’t want to hit that highest penalty line.

As Profar approaches his 30th birthday, it doesn’t look like he’ll ever live up to his former top-prospect status, yet he provided solid numbers in three of the last five seasons.  Of course, that isn’t the most consistent track record, and Profar’s .241/.326/.403 slash line over 2384 plate appearances since the start of the 2018 season works out to a barely above-average 101 wRC+.  While Profar had 110 wRC+ in 2022 and his 2.5 fWAR was the best of his career, this recent performance might not be enough to overcome a perception that is only a “good” player, and teams may not be willing to give a multi-year deal for just “good” (and somewhat unpredictable) performance going forward.

It can be assumed that Profar is at least looking to top that $6.5MM salary he left on the table in San Diego, but his current contract demands are unknown.  It could be that Profar is open to a one-year contract — or one guaranteed year with an option for 2024 — at an average annual value slightly higher than $6.5MM, so he can at least recoup that money and then test the market again next winter.  Profar is represented by the Boras Corporation, and Scott Boras is well-known both for waiting until deep into an offseason to find an acceptable deal for his clients, and for coming up with creative contracts that include flexibility for both the player and the team.

There is a bit more information about Wacha’s demands, since as of two weeks ago, the right-hander and his reps at CAA Sports were reportedly looking for a two-year contract in the range of $30MM.  This is well above the two-year, $16MM deal that MLBTR projected for Wacha’s next deal, though prices for starting pitchers have mostly skyrocketed this winter.

The Orioles, Twins, and Angels have all reportedly had interest in Wacha this offseason, though Minnesota’s trade for Pablo Lopez might have sealed up the last spot in the rotation.  For Baltimore, Wacha has been on the Orioles’ radar both before and after their signing of Kyle Gibson, a similar veteran arm meant to provide innings and experience within the young O’s rotation.  The Angels were the most recent of the three clubs to check in (in early February), and while Los Angeles has already signed Tyler Anderson to bolster the starter ranks, the Angels need a particular amount of depth given their likely deployment of a six-man rotation.

As with Profar, Wacha might fit into that “good but not great” category due to a lack of consistency.  After posting shaky results from 2019-21, Wacha seemingly got back on track by posting a 3.32 ERA over 127 1/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2022.  The righty did a good job of limiting hard contact and he continued his recent trend of limiting walks, but the rest of his Statcast sheet wasn’t overly impressive, including a 20.2% strikeout rate that was well below league average.  Wacha also spent about seven weeks on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, which is of particular concern given his past history of shoulder injuries.

Despite these drawbacks, Wacha’s market is boosted by the simple cliche of “you can never have enough pitching.”  Teams with seemingly full rotations might prefer to sign Wacha and push a younger arm further down the depth chart, or it is quite possible a new club might emerge as a suitor should a pitching injury arise during Spring Training.  That same logic also extends to Profar, as a team’s outfield plans might suddenly be altered if a lineup regular gets hurt.

Which of these free agents do you think will be the next to sign?

(poll link for app users)

Latest On Jurickson Profar’s Market

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Jurickson Profar is the top unsigned position player, with the switch-hitter still lingering on the open market after opting out of his deal with the Padres. Even with Spring Training a few weeks out, there isn’t much clarity on his likely landing spot.

The Rangers, Marlins, Red Sox, Astros, Rockies and Yankees have all been loosely tied to him at points this offseason. Houston and Boston have made other significant left field acquisitions (Michael Brantley and Masataka Yoshida, respectively). Colorado’s reported interest was fairly quickly downplayed, while Miami has since moved Jazz Chisholm Jr. into center field — thereby pushing players like Bryan De La Cruz and Jesús Sánchez into the left field conversation.

While the Yankees still have a questionable left field mix, it doesn’t appear they’re planning to further push payroll. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last week the club doesn’t want to exceed the fourth and final luxury-tax barrier, set at $293MM for the 2023 season. That’d leave them with essentially no breathing room unless they shed some money in a trade. Even in that instance, pivoting back to Profar might not be in the cards. Brendan Kuty of the Athletic wrote this morning the team has been deterred by Profar’s asking price. General manager Brian Cashman indicated on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM over the weekend that Aaron Hicks was likely to get the first crack in left field (h/t to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com).

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic, meanwhile, reported yesterday the Orioles have been involved in the Profar market. The asking price might prove too rich for Baltimore’s taste as well, as Rosenthal adds the front office isn’t particularly bullish on their chances of getting a deal done.

Profar would be a curious fit for the Orioles even before considering the financial implications. While he began his career as a middle infielder, he rated poorly as a defender. That was largely due to throwing accuracy issues, which peaked in 2019 when he committed 11 throwing errors from second base as a member of the Athletics. Since that year, he’s primarily been limited to corner outfield work. Profar picked up sporadic action on the right side of the infield in 2020-21 and didn’t play anywhere other than left field last year.

It’s likely most clubs wouldn’t view him as more than an emergency option anywhere outside the corner outfield. Baltimore doesn’t have a path to at-bats in either left or right field at the moment. Austin Hays and Anthony Santander make for a capable tandem. Santander has more power than Profar does. Hays and Profar have produced at similar levels the last couple seasons, so it’s not likely Baltimore views the free agent as a significant upgrade.

That said, a run at Profar could have freed the O’s up to deal one of their in-house outfielders. General manager Mike Elias noted last week the team is still looking for ways to bolster the rotation, and Rosenthal writes they’re considering trade possibilities for starting pitching. Hays or Santander could appeal to a club that’s willing to market a back-end starter in search of an immediate outfield upgrade — speculatively speaking, the Brewers and Rangers could fit the mold — but a trade would leave the O’s to lean heavily on rookie Kyle Stowers unless they subsequently add experienced outfield help.

While it’s difficult to find a perfect landing spot for Profar, he’s a decent everyday left fielder. A switch-hitter with quality contact skills and a patient approach, he’s hit at an above-average level in two of the past three years. Profar was a lineup staple last season in San Diego, appearing in 152 games and tallying 658 plate appearances. He hit .243/.331/.391 with 15 home runs and 36 doubles. That production checked in 10 percentage points above league average, by measure of wRC+, once one accounts for the league-wide drop in power and the pitcher-friendly nature of Petco Park.

Profar is still just 30 years old and has a case for a multi-year deal on the heels of that solid season. That was surely his expectation when he forewent the final $6.5MM on his contract with the Friars at the start of the offseason. He should still be able to top that, though his lengthy stay on the open market would seem to suggest he hasn’t found the level of interest his camp was anticipating. Michael Conforto and Trey Mancini each secured opt-out clauses on two-year guarantees this offseason, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Profar do the same once he finally agrees to terms. Topping the $14MM guaranteed to Mancini — who’s a year older and coming off a lesser offensive showing — should be attainable.

The Rangers, where Profar began his career after rating as a top prospect, still need to upgrade in left field via free agency or trade. The Padres could circle back given the front office’s longstanding affinity for the outfielder, though they might be nearing their spending limit. That’s also true of the Braves and Dodgers, two contenders who have room for left field upgrades on paper. A retooling club like the Royals or Tigers could eye Profar as a deadline trade candidate. That’d likely only be appealing if he doesn’t secure an opt-out possibility, which would otherwise significantly reduce his trade appeal. If Profar lingers on the market much longer, it’s possible that inevitable injuries around the league early in spring training could create a new opportunity or two, although his preference is surely to be signed by the time camps begin to open.

Yankees Reportedly Reluctant To Surpass Fourth Luxury Tax Tier

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The Yankees have had an aggressive offseason, retaining Aaron Judge on a record free agent deal while bringing in Carlos Rodón on a six-year contract. Those additions, plus a new two-year deal for Anthony Rizzo, accomplished most of the club’s heavy lifting.

It also positioned the organization to top last year’s franchise-record spending level. New York has roughly $272MM in player payroll commitments, per Roster Resource, handily above last year’s $254.7MM figure. The club’s luxury tax number is right up against the $293MM line that marks the highest tier of CBT penalization. Roster Resource projects the organization at $292.3MM at present.

That latter number seems particularly important to the organization. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Yankees don’t want to exceed the $293MM threshold. Considering where their payroll stands, rigidly sticking to that goal would rule out any other notable addition unless the club finds a way to shed some money.

The Yankee roster looks strong, with Rodón replacing Jameson Taillon in the rotation for a team that won 99 regular season games and made it to the AL Championship Series. Left field seems their biggest question mark, as last summer’s deadline acquisition Andrew Benintendi departed on a five-year free agent deal with the White Sox. The Yankees currently have veteran Aaron Hicks and youngster Oswaldo Cabrera as their top left field options. Hicks has posted below-average offensive numbers for the past two seasons. Cabrera showed well as a rookie but has only 44 games of MLB experience under his belt.

Heyman reiterates the Yankees’ previously reported interest in free agent left fielder Jurickson Profar but casts doubt on their chances of actually landing him in light of the club’s payroll stance. Heyman reports that veteran utilityman Josh Harrison is also of interest — presumably as a depth infield target who could also factor into the left field mix — but even a low base salary for Harrison would figure to push them past the $293MM CBT mark.

The fourth tax tier was introduced during the most recent round of collective bargaining. Set $60MM above the season’s base figure ($233MM this year), it involves at least an 80% tax on every dollar spent past the fourth tier. Teams paying the luxury tax for a second consecutive year — as the Yankees will be — are taxed at a 90% clip on additional expenditures.

One can argue whether it’s prudent for the Yankees to treat the $293MM figure as a strict cutoff as they look to repeat as division winners in another competitive AL East. As thing stand, the club is set to pay around $29MM in CBT fees. They’re already slated to see their top selection in the 2024 draft moved back ten spots for surpassing the $273MM mark. There’d be no additional draft penalties for surpassing the fourth threshold, though the financial disincentives are even higher. The Yankees certainly haven’t been frugal this winter, guaranteeing upwards of $570MM overall and pushing to second in 2023 spending. The crosstown Mets have proven thoroughly undeterred by the final tax tier, running a CBT payroll north of $360MM that’s easily the league’s highest.

A club’s competitive balance tax figure isn’t calculated until the end of a season. The Yankees could go above $293MM during the offseason while subsequently dipping below that threshold before year’s end. Alternatively, they could stick below the marker for now but reconsider going over at the summer trade deadline if they’re in contention as expected.

If that threshold is truly the line in the sand, trades would be the primary means of clearing additional breathing room. New York would surely welcome the opportunity to reallocate some of the $25MM CBT hit on the Josh Donaldson deal or the $10MM number of Hicks’ contract, but they’ve seemingly found little interest around the league. Players like Gleyber Torres or Isiah Kiner-Falefa would draw more interest if New York wanted to make them available, though doing so would obviously deal a hit to their infield depth. Starter Frankie Montas is making $7.5MM and may have been a potential trade target after the club added Rodón; that’d be tougher to do now that Montas is a couple months behind schedule because of continued shoulder troubles.

Rangers, Marlins Among Teams Interested In Jurickson Profar

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Outfielder Jurickson Profar is one of the top free agents that still remains unsigned and he is drawing plenty of interest around the league. He’s already been connected to the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox at various points throughout the winter and it seems there are a few more teams involved. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the teams interested in Bryan Reynolds are keeping tabs on Profar, a group which includes the Marlins and Rangers.

Reynolds has been consistently in trade rumors for quite some time, which is fairly logical given that he’s emerged as a very good player on a rebuilding Pirates team. He won’t be a free agent until after 2025 and the team could find itself back in contention in that time, but there would also be sense in exchanging his final years of control for younger players that can continue to help the club beyond that timeframe. The Bucs could prolong their relationship with Reynolds by extending him, but recent reporting indicates the sides have been about $50MM apart in their discussions, suggesting a deal isn’t likely to get done anytime soon.

Various teams have tried to free Reynolds from Pittsburgh’s clutches over the past year or two and the player himself has even asked for a trade, but all reports have indicated that the Bucs have been sticking to a high asking price in any trade talks. Jon Heyman of The New York Post recently reported that they are looking for a return analogous to what the Nationals got in the Juan Soto deal. Given the difficulty in working something out with the Pittsburgh front office, it’s understandable that clubs would look to alternatives like Profar.

There are some similarities between the two players as both are switch-hitting outfielders. They’re actually not terribly far apart in age, despite Profar debuting all the way back in 2012. He was only 19 years old then and is now about to turn 30 next month. Reynolds is a couple of years younger, turning 28 in just over a week.

They are also both outfielders, though Reynolds has decidedly more value on defense given that he’s a passable center fielder. Teams will likely have varying views over exactly how passable he is there, since the advanced defensive metrics are split on how to grade his work up the middle. He’s accrued 4 Outs Above Average in his career at that spot but has -16 Defensive Runs Saved and a -7.1 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Profar, meanwhile, began his career as an infielder but has gradually spent more and more time in the outfield. Since 2019, he’s made brief appearances at second and first base but hasn’t appeared at shortstop or third base. Last year, the Padres kept him exclusively in left field. He did spend 156 2/3 innings in center field over 2020 and 2021 but wasn’t graded well there and is likely considered a corner outfielder by most clubs.

At the plate, Reynolds and Profar have admirable qualities, but in different ways. Both players are good at getting on base, with Reynolds posting a .345 OBP last year and .361 mark for his career. Profar is slightly behind in that regard, with a .331 OBP in 2022 and .322 overall. Reynolds is also ahead in the power department, hitting 27 home runs last year and 74 in his career thus far. Profar hit 15 last year and has only 78 in his career, despite more than 1,000 extra plate appearances compared to Reynolds. Profar’s work was enough for a 110 wRC+ last year, 10% better than league average, but behind the 125 that Reynolds managed.

There’s little doubting that Reynolds is a more enticing option than Profar but the latter option will cost only money, allowing the acquiring club to hang onto the pile of prospects they would theoretically send to Pittsburgh in a Reynolds deal. MLBTR predicted Profar could secure a two-year, $20MM deal at the start of the offseason. That was before the market really got going and surpassed the expectations of many observers, though Profar lingering on the market suggests no team has been eager to blow him away by surging beyond that vicinity.

The Rangers currently have a competitive balance tax calculation of $219MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource. Signing someone like Profar to about $10MM per year would start pushing them close to the $233MM luxury tax threshold. It’s unclear if that’s any kind of barrier for the club, but it’s something they would have to consider if they decide to bring Profar into the fold. The Marlins, meanwhile, are nowhere near the luxury tax but are in somewhat uncharted spending territory for them. Roster Resource has their payroll currently at $103MM. That’s well beyond last year’s $79MM mark, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and the highest since the Bruce Sherman-led group bought the team from Jeffrey Loria in 2017. It’s unknown how much more they have to work with but any further spending would continue to stretch them beyond comfort zone of the past few years.

Regardless of the final cost, there are logical reasons for both teams to pursue outfield upgrades. The Rangers have Adolis García in right field and Leody Taveras as a glove-first option in center. They’ve been on the hunt for left field upgrades, given that their current choices make up a mixed bag of imperfect options. Brad Miller, Josh Smith, Ezequiel Durán and Mark Mathias are on the roster, though they’ve all spent more time on the infield than the outfield in their careers. Furthermore, all but Mathias are coming off poor seasons at the plate. Bubba Thompson is a more straightforward solution since he’s an outfielder and can at least steal some bases, but he strikes out a ton and hit .265/.302/.312 in his major league debut.

The Marlins have been seeking outfield upgrades for quite some time but added a few options into the corners last year by signing Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler. Both players had disappointing seasons in 2022 but are still under contract for 2023, with Soler seemingly ticketed for plenty of time as the designated hitter after he dealt with back spasms in the later parts of last season. That could leave one corner available for someone like Profar, though they also have Bryan De La Cruz, Jesús Sánchez and JJ Bleday currently lined up to battle for the two spots next to Garcia. None of those three are truly established and an external addition could bump them all down the depth charts until they take steps forward in cementing themselves. De La Cruz hits right-handed and the other two from the left side, which could allow them to form a platoon in center with one player getting nudged to the bench or the minors.

Red Sox Interested In Jurickson Profar, Elvis Andrus

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The Red Sox were known to be looking for middle infield help even before news broke earlier this week about Trevor Story’s internal brace surgery on his right elbow, which could keep the shortstop on the injured list for most (or potentially all) of the 2023 season.  In the wake of Story’s surgery, two names have surfaced on Boston’s radar, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that the Sox have interest in both Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus.

In terms of being a replacement for Story at shortstop, Andrus is the cleaner fit, as the veteran could simply step right into a regular shortstop role.  Apart from 25 games as a DH, Andrus has exclusively played shortstop in the other 1914 games of his 14-year Major League career.  Public defensive metrics are a little mixed on Andrus’ glovework (+4.7 UZR/150 and +3 Outs Above Average in 2022, countered by a -4 Defensive Runs Saved score), but all in all, Andrus still looks like he can provide at least acceptable defense even at age 34.

At the plate, Andrus has been inconsistent at best over his career, but he did enjoy a lot of success in a late-season cameo with the White Sox in 2022.  Released by the A’s in August, Chicago signed Andrus as a replacement for the injured Tim Anderson, and Andrus responded with a very solid .271/.309/.464 slash line and nine home runs over 191 plate appearances with the Pale Hose.  His overall 105 wRC+ for the season and his 3.5 fWAR were Andrus’ highest totals in either category since 2017, and his 17 homers was the second-highest total of his career.

Despite this nice performance, there hasn’t been much buzz about Andrus on the open market this winter, as teams are perhaps more focused on Andrus’ age, his ability to replicate his 2022 numbers, and his more unspectacular recent track record before last season — Andrus accumulated a modest 4.3 fWAR combined from 2018-21.  Still, there was some speculation that Andrus’ market wouldn’t really pick up until the “big four” free agent shortstops (Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson) were off the board, and teams still in need of shortstop help could turn to Andrus as more of a stop-gap option.

The Red Sox technically fit this description given their loss of Bogaerts, and Boston had shown at least some level of interest in such infield trade targets as Amed Rosario, Paul DeJong, Joey Wendle, and (before he was dealt from the Marlins to the Dodgers) Miguel Rojas.  All of these players would’ve been eyed for the shortstop job, as the Sox could’ve then stuck to their initial plan of using Enrique Hernandez mostly in center field, or at least as a player who could be bounced around the diamond rather than someone primarily locked into a shortstop role.

Profar’s addition would create some lineup shuffling, and likely result in Hernandez getting more time at short.  Profar hasn’t played shortstop since 2018, and while he was once a multi-position type, 2022 marked the first time that Profar played exclusively at one position, as the Padres deployed him only as a left fielder.  The newly-signed Masataka Yoshida has already been tabbed for left field duty in Fenway Park, so the Red Sox could move Profar (who turns 30 in February) around to the other outfield positions, or possibly second or first base.

MLBTR projected Profar for a two-year, $20MM deal this winter, and the Yankees and Astros have both shown some interest in his services at various times this winter.  Two weeks ago, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco broke down Profar’s potential market and some teams that might emerge as fits, though the Red Sox weren’t cited due to the assumption that Yoshida had filled the outfield need.  Of course, injuries can instantly bring new teams into the mix, and Profar’s market could further expand if teams do see him as a candidate for positions beyond only left field.

Quick Hits: Wacha, Hendricks, Profar

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The Orioles have continued their previously reported interest in free-agent starter Michael Wacha, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. There is no indication that talks between the two parties have been particularly serious. Wacha would give the Orioles a second free-agent veteran arm signing, with the club having already added Kyle Gibson on a one-year, $10MM deal in early December.

Wacha, 31, threw 127 1/3 innings with a 3.32 ERA during the 2022 season. His 20.2% strikeout rate and 41.2% ground ball rate were both below the league average for starters, but he coupled that with a strong 6.0% walk rate. Nevertheless, advanced fielding-independent metrics were not as bullish on his baseline ERA work, with Wacha finishing the season posting a 4.14 FIP and a 4.07 SIERA. Likely contributing to these higher metrics was the 80.3% strand rate that set a career-high by nearly 7% and some luck with balls in play (.260 BABIP).

Notably, 2022 was Wacha’s first season since 2015 in which he threw over 100 innings with a sub-4 ERA. Additionally, 2022 marked the righty’s fourth consecutive season where he was limited to less than 130 innings, excluding the COVID-19 2020 season. Wacha required two separate stints on the injured list during the 2022 season, missing a couple of weeks with left intercostal irritation in May and missing the bulk of July dealing with right shoulder inflammation.

The Birds are projected to start 2023 with a rotation comprised of Gibson, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells, and Kyle Bradish. Additionally, Mike Baumann and DL Hall, who made their MLB debuts during the 2022 season, figure to have roles with the big league club during the 2023 season, while top prospect Grayson Rodriguez will likely earn a call-up as well. Veteran John Means is also projected to return to Baltimore during the 2023 season, having undergone Tommy John surgery in April.

Wacha is the last unsigned starting pitcher on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent List and would aid the Orioles in their quest to return to the playoffs for the first time since the 2016 AL Wild Card game. MLBTR predicted that Wacha would sign a two-year, $16MM deal at the start of the offseason.

Some more notes from around the league…

  • Cubs’ starter Kyle Hendricks expects to be throwing off a mound around March 1, per Meghan Montemurro of The Chicago Tribune (Twitter Link). Hendricks ended the 2022 season on the injured list after dealing with a capsular tear in his right shoulder that limited him to 16 starts. The 33-year-old’s rehab has reportedly been behind schedule, but the righty has told reporters, including Montemurro, that his shoulder feels “amazing” and that the Cubs want him to “take advantage of this ramp up of the long toss program,” which will likely delay his 2023 debut. The 2023 season is Hendricks’ last year with a guaranteed contract, with the Cubs holding a $16MM club option for the 2024 season.
  • The Rockies are not one of the teams interested in Jurickson Profar, reports Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. The switch-hitting outfielder finished the 2022 season with a .243/.331/.391 slash line, popping 15 home runs and 36 doubles. Additionally, Profar is ranked by MLBTR as the top remaining free agent and is the lone unsigned position player from the list. MLBTR’s own Anthony Franco recently wrote an article detailing which teams make the most sense for the 29-year-old veteran, with the Rangers, Marlins, and Braves standing out as potential suitors. The Astros had reportedly expressed interest in Profar before re-signing Michael Brantley.

The Best Remaining Free Agent At Each Position

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The lingering Carlos Correa saga hangs over the free agency market, but beyond him the bulk of the free agents have found new homes for the 2023 season and beyond. While we won’t be seeing any monster deals from here, there are still a handful of players that could still have a positive impact on a new team. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the best (in this writer’s view anyway) remaining free agents at each position.

For a full list of the remaining free agents, go here.

Starting Pitcher: Johnny Cueto: 158 1/3 innings pitched, 3.35 ERA, 5.8 SO/9, 1.9 BB/9. Cueto enjoyed something of a resurgence last year for the White Sox, putting together his best campaign since 2016. His strikeout rate declined considerably but he offset that by displaying some of the best control of his career. He’ll turn 37 in February, so likely will only command a one-year deal but teams in need of a veteran arm to stabilize the backend of the rotation could certainly do worse than adding Cueto. The Padres, Marlins, Blue Jays and Reds have all had reported interest in the veteran right-hander at various stages of the off-season, while teams like the Angels have shown recent interest in adding another starter.

Relief Pitcher: Andrew Chafin: 57 1/3 IP, 2.83 ERA, 10.5 SO/9, 3.0 BB/9. Chafin’s been a quality left-handed reliever for the past few seasons now, the last of which came with the Tigers. He’s effective against both left and right-handed hitters, and should fit in as a late-inning arm wherever he winds up landing. Control was an issue earlier in his career, but he seems to have tidied that up and posted a mark below 8% for the second-straight season. That figure came with a quality 27.6% strikeout rate. After declining a $6.5MM option on his contract with the Tigers, he should be able to top that on the open market on a multi-year deal.

Catcher: Gary Sanchez: 471 plate appearances, .205/.282/.377, 16 home runs. The Yankees flipped Sanchez to Twins last winter after growing frustrated with his performance over the previous few seasons. Sanchez undoubtedly has talent, as evidenced by the 53 home runs and 143 wRC+ he compiled between 2016-17. He’s not come close to replicating that in the years since, slashing .202/.295/.427 for a below-average wRC+ of 96 between 2018-22. Sanchez has never been regarded as one of the top defensive catchers, but did post his best framing numbers per Fangraphs’ metric since 2018, and gave up the fewest wild pitches of his career (excluding the shortened 2020 season and 2016, when he didn’t play a full year). While a number of teams have filled their vacancy at catcher, the likes of the Red Sox, Tigers and Marlins could be among the teams interested.

First base: Trey Mancini: 587 PA, .239/.319/.391, 18 HR. Mancini split time between the Orioles and Astros in 2022, putting together a solid enough campaign at the plate. His 104 wRC+ in the past two seasons indicates he’s just four percent above the league average at the plate. For a first base/corner outfielder that’s unlikely to command a significant guarantee in free agency, but Mancini could still land a multi-year guarantee. There’s certainly an argument to be made that Mancini belongs in that outfield group of such an article, but any acquiring team would surely have him splitting time between first base and the outfield. Mancini was worth 2 Outs Above Average in 323 innings at first in 2022, the best mark of any of the positions he played.

Second base: Josh Harrison: 425 PA, .256/.317/.370, 7 HR. The 35-year-old Harrison recovered from a slow start to finish with a respectable season for the White Sox, finishing with a slightly below average 98 wRC+. That came after he was hitting just .167/.248/.255 on June 2. He doesn’t offer much in the way of power, but he provides a solid contact bat who can play all over the infield. Harrison logged most of his defensive time at second base, where he was worth 3 Defensive Runs Saved. He was also worth 3 DRS at third base, and can fill in at short and the corner outfield spots at a pinch. Teams in need of a veteran utility player could do worse than adding Harrison on a one-year deal.

Shortstop: Elvis Andrus: 577 PA, .249/.303/.404, 17 HR. Andrus started the year in Oakland, but was released in August and finished the season with the White Sox. The 34-year-old has a bit of pop in his bat, and grades out well defensively at shortstop, where he was worth 3 Outs Above Average in 2022. He may very well be the best infielder left on the open market, yet it’s been a quiet winter for Andrus, with little reported movement in his market. Obviously Correa has not officially signed a contract, but for the purposes of this article we’ll assume he’s heading to the Mets in which case Andrus would be the next best option for teams on the hunt for a shortstop.

Third base: Brian Anderson: 383 PA, .222/.311/.346, 8 HR. Anderson put up the worst offensive numbers of his five full seasons with the Marlins in 2022, finishing up with a 90 wRC+. That was the second-straight season of offensive decline for the 29-year-old, who put up a 115 wRC+ between 2018-20. He’s split time between third base and right field in recent times, grading out well in both until 2022. Last year, he was worth -4 DRS after picking up 12 DRS over the previous three seasons at the hot corner. The decline was enough for the Marlins to non-tender him this winter ahead of his final year of arbitration, but he could make sense as a buy-low bounceback candidate for any number of teams.

Left/Right field: Jurickson Profar: 658 PA, .243/.331/.391, 15 HR. Profar is arguably the top remaining free agent available. The 29-year-old (30 in February) puts the ball in play plenty, as evidenced by his quality 15.7% strikeout rate. He also takes plenty of walks and has a bit of pop in the bat. A former middle infielder, the Padres played him exclusively in left last year and he picked up 2 Defensive Runs Saved. He turned down an $7.5MM in favor of a $1MM buyout this winter to hit the open market in search of a multi-year deal. The Rangers and Yankees make sense as teams looking for left field help, while the Marlins and Rockies could also make sense.

Center field: Albert Almora: 235 PA, .223/.282/.349, 5 HR. The center field market was not deep to begin with, and is now largely limited to glove first options. Almora doesn’t pose much of a threat with the bat, as evidenced by his 71 wRC+, but he was worth 8 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield for the Reds, with four of those coming in center field. He’s unlikely to be a starting option for teams but would make sense as a glove-first bench option.

Designated Hitter: Nelson Cruz: 507 PA, .234/.313/.337, 10 HR. After a number of years of elite production at the plate, 2022 was the first below average year for Cruz since 2007 (per wRC+). He’s now 42, so betting on him bouncing back is a risky one, but he mashed 89 home runs and compiled a 146 wRC+ between 2019-21 so it’s not like this has been a steady decline over a number of years. With that being said, he hasn’t played the field at all since 2018 so is exclusively limited to DH duties. It was reported a few days ago that he has received offers for the 2023 season though, so it seems he will be back for a 19th big league season.

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