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Jurickson Profar

Quick Hits: Wacha, Hendricks, Profar

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The Orioles have continued their previously reported interest in free-agent starter Michael Wacha, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. There is no indication that talks between the two parties have been particularly serious. Wacha would give the Orioles a second free-agent veteran arm signing, with the club having already added Kyle Gibson on a one-year, $10MM deal in early December.

Wacha, 31, threw 127 1/3 innings with a 3.32 ERA during the 2022 season. His 20.2% strikeout rate and 41.2% ground ball rate were both below the league average for starters, but he coupled that with a strong 6.0% walk rate. Nevertheless, advanced fielding-independent metrics were not as bullish on his baseline ERA work, with Wacha finishing the season posting a 4.14 FIP and a 4.07 SIERA. Likely contributing to these higher metrics was the 80.3% strand rate that set a career-high by nearly 7% and some luck with balls in play (.260 BABIP).

Notably, 2022 was Wacha’s first season since 2015 in which he threw over 100 innings with a sub-4 ERA. Additionally, 2022 marked the righty’s fourth consecutive season where he was limited to less than 130 innings, excluding the COVID-19 2020 season. Wacha required two separate stints on the injured list during the 2022 season, missing a couple of weeks with left intercostal irritation in May and missing the bulk of July dealing with right shoulder inflammation.

The Birds are projected to start 2023 with a rotation comprised of Gibson, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells, and Kyle Bradish. Additionally, Mike Baumann and DL Hall, who made their MLB debuts during the 2022 season, figure to have roles with the big league club during the 2023 season, while top prospect Grayson Rodriguez will likely earn a call-up as well. Veteran John Means is also projected to return to Baltimore during the 2023 season, having undergone Tommy John surgery in April.

Wacha is the last unsigned starting pitcher on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent List and would aid the Orioles in their quest to return to the playoffs for the first time since the 2016 AL Wild Card game. MLBTR predicted that Wacha would sign a two-year, $16MM deal at the start of the offseason.

Some more notes from around the league…

  • Cubs’ starter Kyle Hendricks expects to be throwing off a mound around March 1, per Meghan Montemurro of The Chicago Tribune (Twitter Link). Hendricks ended the 2022 season on the injured list after dealing with a capsular tear in his right shoulder that limited him to 16 starts. The 33-year-old’s rehab has reportedly been behind schedule, but the righty has told reporters, including Montemurro, that his shoulder feels “amazing” and that the Cubs want him to “take advantage of this ramp up of the long toss program,” which will likely delay his 2023 debut. The 2023 season is Hendricks’ last year with a guaranteed contract, with the Cubs holding a $16MM club option for the 2024 season.
  • The Rockies are not one of the teams interested in Jurickson Profar, reports Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. The switch-hitting outfielder finished the 2022 season with a .243/.331/.391 slash line, popping 15 home runs and 36 doubles. Additionally, Profar is ranked by MLBTR as the top remaining free agent and is the lone unsigned position player from the list. MLBTR’s own Anthony Franco recently wrote an article detailing which teams make the most sense for the 29-year-old veteran, with the Rangers, Marlins, and Braves standing out as potential suitors. The Astros had reportedly expressed interest in Profar before re-signing Michael Brantley.

The Best Remaining Free Agent At Each Position

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The lingering Carlos Correa saga hangs over the free agency market, but beyond him the bulk of the free agents have found new homes for the 2023 season and beyond. While we won’t be seeing any monster deals from here, there are still a handful of players that could still have a positive impact on a new team. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the best (in this writer’s view anyway) remaining free agents at each position.

For a full list of the remaining free agents, go here.

Starting Pitcher: Johnny Cueto: 158 1/3 innings pitched, 3.35 ERA, 5.8 SO/9, 1.9 BB/9. Cueto enjoyed something of a resurgence last year for the White Sox, putting together his best campaign since 2016. His strikeout rate declined considerably but he offset that by displaying some of the best control of his career. He’ll turn 37 in February, so likely will only command a one-year deal but teams in need of a veteran arm to stabilize the backend of the rotation could certainly do worse than adding Cueto. The Padres, Marlins, Blue Jays and Reds have all had reported interest in the veteran right-hander at various stages of the off-season, while teams like the Angels have shown recent interest in adding another starter.

Relief Pitcher: Andrew Chafin: 57 1/3 IP, 2.83 ERA, 10.5 SO/9, 3.0 BB/9. Chafin’s been a quality left-handed reliever for the past few seasons now, the last of which came with the Tigers. He’s effective against both left and right-handed hitters, and should fit in as a late-inning arm wherever he winds up landing. Control was an issue earlier in his career, but he seems to have tidied that up and posted a mark below 8% for the second-straight season. That figure came with a quality 27.6% strikeout rate. After declining a $6.5MM option on his contract with the Tigers, he should be able to top that on the open market on a multi-year deal.

Catcher: Gary Sanchez: 471 plate appearances, .205/.282/.377, 16 home runs. The Yankees flipped Sanchez to Twins last winter after growing frustrated with his performance over the previous few seasons. Sanchez undoubtedly has talent, as evidenced by the 53 home runs and 143 wRC+ he compiled between 2016-17. He’s not come close to replicating that in the years since, slashing .202/.295/.427 for a below-average wRC+ of 96 between 2018-22. Sanchez has never been regarded as one of the top defensive catchers, but did post his best framing numbers per Fangraphs’ metric since 2018, and gave up the fewest wild pitches of his career (excluding the shortened 2020 season and 2016, when he didn’t play a full year). While a number of teams have filled their vacancy at catcher, the likes of the Red Sox, Tigers and Marlins could be among the teams interested.

First base: Trey Mancini: 587 PA, .239/.319/.391, 18 HR. Mancini split time between the Orioles and Astros in 2022, putting together a solid enough campaign at the plate. His 104 wRC+ in the past two seasons indicates he’s just four percent above the league average at the plate. For a first base/corner outfielder that’s unlikely to command a significant guarantee in free agency, but Mancini could still land a multi-year guarantee. There’s certainly an argument to be made that Mancini belongs in that outfield group of such an article, but any acquiring team would surely have him splitting time between first base and the outfield. Mancini was worth 2 Outs Above Average in 323 innings at first in 2022, the best mark of any of the positions he played.

Second base: Josh Harrison: 425 PA, .256/.317/.370, 7 HR. The 35-year-old Harrison recovered from a slow start to finish with a respectable season for the White Sox, finishing with a slightly below average 98 wRC+. That came after he was hitting just .167/.248/.255 on June 2. He doesn’t offer much in the way of power, but he provides a solid contact bat who can play all over the infield. Harrison logged most of his defensive time at second base, where he was worth 3 Defensive Runs Saved. He was also worth 3 DRS at third base, and can fill in at short and the corner outfield spots at a pinch. Teams in need of a veteran utility player could do worse than adding Harrison on a one-year deal.

Shortstop: Elvis Andrus: 577 PA, .249/.303/.404, 17 HR. Andrus started the year in Oakland, but was released in August and finished the season with the White Sox. The 34-year-old has a bit of pop in his bat, and grades out well defensively at shortstop, where he was worth 3 Outs Above Average in 2022. He may very well be the best infielder left on the open market, yet it’s been a quiet winter for Andrus, with little reported movement in his market. Obviously Correa has not officially signed a contract, but for the purposes of this article we’ll assume he’s heading to the Mets in which case Andrus would be the next best option for teams on the hunt for a shortstop.

Third base: Brian Anderson: 383 PA, .222/.311/.346, 8 HR. Anderson put up the worst offensive numbers of his five full seasons with the Marlins in 2022, finishing up with a 90 wRC+. That was the second-straight season of offensive decline for the 29-year-old, who put up a 115 wRC+ between 2018-20. He’s split time between third base and right field in recent times, grading out well in both until 2022. Last year, he was worth -4 DRS after picking up 12 DRS over the previous three seasons at the hot corner. The decline was enough for the Marlins to non-tender him this winter ahead of his final year of arbitration, but he could make sense as a buy-low bounceback candidate for any number of teams.

Left/Right field: Jurickson Profar: 658 PA, .243/.331/.391, 15 HR. Profar is arguably the top remaining free agent available. The 29-year-old (30 in February) puts the ball in play plenty, as evidenced by his quality 15.7% strikeout rate. He also takes plenty of walks and has a bit of pop in the bat. A former middle infielder, the Padres played him exclusively in left last year and he picked up 2 Defensive Runs Saved. He turned down an $7.5MM in favor of a $1MM buyout this winter to hit the open market in search of a multi-year deal. The Rangers and Yankees make sense as teams looking for left field help, while the Marlins and Rockies could also make sense.

Center field: Albert Almora: 235 PA, .223/.282/.349, 5 HR. The center field market was not deep to begin with, and is now largely limited to glove first options. Almora doesn’t pose much of a threat with the bat, as evidenced by his 71 wRC+, but he was worth 8 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield for the Reds, with four of those coming in center field. He’s unlikely to be a starting option for teams but would make sense as a glove-first bench option.

Designated Hitter: Nelson Cruz: 507 PA, .234/.313/.337, 10 HR. After a number of years of elite production at the plate, 2022 was the first below average year for Cruz since 2007 (per wRC+). He’s now 42, so betting on him bouncing back is a risky one, but he mashed 89 home runs and compiled a 146 wRC+ between 2019-21 so it’s not like this has been a steady decline over a number of years. With that being said, he hasn’t played the field at all since 2018 so is exclusively limited to DH duties. It was reported a few days ago that he has received offers for the 2023 season though, so it seems he will be back for a 19th big league season.

Latest On The Yankees’ Left Field Plans

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The Yankees’ left field conundrum has been an ongoing topic of the off-season as the team mulls over whether or not to bring in someone through the trade market or free agency, or stick with their internal options.

As Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports, the team’s preferred outcome would have been to retain Andrew Benintendi, but he wound up signing a five-year, $75MM deal with the White Sox. He reports that the Yankees would have gone to five years to get Benintendi were it not for the fact they’d signed starter Carlos Rodon to a six-year, $162MM pact. Sherman also reports that the team was “very involved” in trade talks with the Diamondbacks about Daulton Varsho before they ultimately shifted him to Toronto for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno.

The biggest available name the team has been connected to is Bryan Reynolds. He has requested a trade out of Pittsburgh, but it seems the Bucs have set a high asking price on their star outfielder and haven’t budged on that front. Nonetheless, Jon Heyman of the New York Post recently reported that the Yankees were one of the teams “consistently” interested in acquiring Reynolds. As a switch-hitter with three-years of team control remaining he’d certainly fit on their roster, but the Yankees may be reluctant to part with top prospects such as Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe to get a deal done.

It’s slim pickings on the free agent market at this point, but Sherman does note that the team has had some interest in Jurickson Profar. The switch-hitter was worth 2.5 fWAR for the Padres in 2022 and would be a solid option to upgrade their outfield stocks. Yet Oswaldo Cabrera was worth 1.5 fWAR in 44 games and Aaron Hicks the same in 130 games, so the team may not see Profar as enough of a needle-mover to commit to the multi-year deal he likely seeks. The same could be said of another left-handed bat in David Peralta, but it doesn’t appear there’s been much interest from the Yankees anyway.

Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reported in a recent mailbag that the team could forego external options and let Hicks and Cabrera battle it out in spring training for the starting job. While it isn’t the most exciting option for Yankees fans, there is some sense in it. The Yankees roster is strong enough to be in a good spot for the first three months of the season without an upgrade in left, so the team could see if Hicks can rebound or Cabrera can sustain his small sample of work over a longer period, before deciding whether or not to seek an external upgrade at the trade deadline.

Hicks had plenty of shortcomings in 2022, but he still walked at a strong 13.7% clip and if he can regain even a little bit of the power he’s showed in the past he could still be reasonably productive player. Cabrera was exceptional in the field last year, earning 9 Defensive Runs Saved in 278 2/3 outfield innings, while posting a 111 wRC+ at the plate. He also struggled mightily in the playoffs, going 2-for-28 with 12 strikeouts. In any event, he may have more value to the Yankees as someone who can play all over the field rather than in a fixed position, allowing the Yankees to spell some of their veterans on a more regular basis.

Estevan Florial is the other internal option that the Yankees will need to make a decision on. A toolsy former top-100 prospect, Florial has found opportunities few and far between over the past three seasons (just 63 plate appearances) but is out of options so can’t be sent to the minors without being exposed to waivers. He’s hit well at Triple-A and the Yankees could give him an extended run in the majors, but Sherman opines that the Yankees could trade him prior to the season opener. While his trade value won’t be particularly high anymore, plenty of teams – particularly rebuilding ones – would surely like to give him an extended opportunity in the big leagues to see if they can tap into his potential.

The Yankees have also been aggressive in recent weeks in stocking up on outfield depth in the minors. They’ve signed Willie Calhoun, Billy McKinney and Rafael Ortega to minor league deals, and Sherman notes they checked in on Kole Calhoun as well. Calhoun and McKinney look like depth pieces, but Ortega is an interesting add. He had a 122 wRC+ for the Cubs over 330 plate appearances in 2021, and while it dropped back to 96 in 2022 he does look to be a possible option for the Yankees. As a left-handed pull hitter, he could benefit from playing regularly in Yankee Stadium as well, so a strong spring could see him force his way into the team’s plans at the big league level.

Rockies Rumors: Outfield Search, Cron

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It’s been a quiet offseason for the Rockies, whose free-agent additions to this point consist of right-handers Pierce Johnson (one year, $5MM) and Jose Urena (one year, $3.5MM). The Rox have also claimed Brent Suter from the Brewers, signed Tyler Kinley to an extension and issued a handful of minor league deals, and they were reportedly interested in several free-agent outfielders before those players landed elsewhere (Michael Conforto, Cody Bellinger, Brandon Nimmo among them).

They’ve clearly been linked to a number of left-handed-hitting outfielders since the offseason began but have also appeared limited in the extent to which they’re comfortable paying those players. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote recently that the Rockies are indeed trying to add a lefty-swinging outfielder to their group, adding that they “may consider” a reunion with Corey Dickerson, who spent the first three seasons of his career calling Coors Field home. The Rox shipped Dickerson to the Rays in the trade that brough German Marquez to Colorado, and Dickerson has since bounced to six teams while settling in as a productive, if somewhat limited corner outfielder.

Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, however, throws some cold water on the possibility of a Dickerson reunion, writing in his latest mailbag column that he’s not heard of any real interest expressed by the Rockies. Dickerson would indeed be something of a tough fit with the Rockies’ roster, as currently constructed. While names like Bellinger and Nimmo could’ve been plugged into center field, Dickerson has been primarily a left fielder in recent seasons. Bryant is expected to man that position when healthy, and across the outfield, Randal Grichuk has been at least comparable to Dickerson from an offensive standpoint over the past few years. Playing Dickerson in right and Grichuk in center is a stretch, too; Dickerson ranked last among MLB outfielders in arm strength last season, according to Statcast.

The Athletic’s Jim Bowden echoes Heyman’s sentiment that the Rox are prioritizing the addition of a left-handed-hitting outfielder, calling free agent switch-hitter Jurickson Profar a “real possibility” for the club. That said, many of the limitations that apply to Dickerson also apply to Profar. He’s primarily been a left fielder since a pair of shoulder surgeries and a case of the yips pushed him from shortstop, to second base, to the outfield. He’s also not a demonstrably better offensive player than in-house options like Yonathan Daza and the aforementioned Grichuk, although his .244/.333/.375 slash over the past three seasons (103 wRC+) would be a slight improvement. That said, both Daza and Grichuk can play center field, while Profar has just 156 career innings at the position — none in 2022.

It’s fair to question just how much the Rockies are willing to spend to acquire the lefty outfield bat they reportedly covet. It never seemed likely that the Rox would match last year’s spending — not after they inked Kris Bryant to a $182MM contract and subsequently pushed their projected 2023 payroll (currently about $163MM) up into franchise-record territory. But the team’s activity thus far, or lack thereof, doesn’t paint a portrait of a club that is planning to win many bidding wars in free agency this time around.

Whether due to a desire to shed payroll or simply to free up time for younger players, it appears the Rockies have at least been willing to listen to offers on first baseman C.J. Cron. Saunders writes in his mailbag that Colorado hasn’t received much trade interest in Cron, however.

Given Cron’s status as a productive hitter and solid defender at first base, there’s little reason to simply attempt to dump his $7.25MM salary, even if the Rox would eventually like to take a longer look at 24-year-old Michael Toglia at first base. Toglia, the team’s first-round pick in 2019, has had strikeout troubles in the upper minors but also walked at a 12% clip, slugged 32 homers between the minors and a brief MLB debut in ’22, and has drawn praise as an above-average defender at first base. Given Toglia’s proximity to the Majors and Cron’s status as an impending free agent (following the 2023 season), it stands to reason that the latter could yet be a trade candidate — be it later in the offseason or as the summer deadline approaches.

Depending on Colorado’s appetite for spending, the trade market ought to present various avenues to acquire a lefty bat — whether a true center fielder or perhaps another corner option (with Grichuk and Daza then being relied upon as the primary options in center). The Twins (Max Kepler), Orioles (Anthony Santander), A’s (Seth Brown), Pirates (Bryan Reynolds) and division-rival D-backs (Jake McCarthy) all have lefty or switch-hitting outfielders who’ve come up in trade rumblings, to varying extents, this offseason.

Which Teams Make The Most Sense For Jurickson Profar?

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Aside from Carlos Correa — who reportedly remains focused on finalizing his deal with the Mets — only three players from MLBTR’s top 50 free agents remain without a contract. There’s just one hitter from the group, as the market for Jurickson Profar has remained surprisingly quiet.

The nine-year MLB veteran had a solid 2022 campaign with the Padres, hitting .243/.331/.391 with 15 home runs through 658 plate appearances. It was his second above-average offensive season in the last three years, leading the 29-year-old to make the easy decision to accept a $1MM buyout and hit free agency instead of returning to San Diego on a $7.5MM salary.

In the nearly two months since then, however, there’s been virtually zero indication as to his next landing spot. The only team that has been substantively tied to Profar this winter is the Astros, and that was before they re-signed Michael Brantley to split time with Yordan Alvarez between left field and designated hitter.

That leaves only speculative possibilities in trying to narrow down Profar’s landing spot. With Profar mostly limited to left field in recent years after breaking into the majors as an infielder, it’s worth looking at the clubs that got the worst production out of the position. Here are the bottom ten teams in wRC+ from left fielders in 2022:

  • Rangers (47)
  • Angels (67)
  • Marlins (81)
  • Tigers (88)
  • Red Sox (91)
  • A’s (94)
  • Reds (95)
  • Pirates (97)
  • Braves (97)
  • Twins (98)

A few of these clubs have already addressed the issue. The Halos traded for Hunter Renfroe, while the Red Sox signed Masataka Yoshida to a five-year contract. The Twins signed Joey Gallo and look likelier to trade away an outfielder than sign another.

Some others are either amidst rebuilds or at least heading into transitional seasons. The A’s, Tigers, Reds and Pirates are all unlikely to contend for a playoff spot in 2023. That doesn’t inherently rule them out on Profar, who’s still fairly young and could sign a multi-year deal. Yet it perhaps lessens the urgency for anyone in that group to try to plug every hole on the roster via free agency. Let’s take a look at the remaining three clubs in that group:

  • Rangers: Texas has had a second straight whirlwind offseason, this time on the pitching staff. They’ve added four starting pitchers as part of their efforts to vault themselves into postseason contention. Left field is the biggest remaining weakness, and Rangers general manager Chris Young has already gone on record about a desire to upgrade. Bubba Thompson and infield/outfield hybrids Brad Miller, Josh Smith and Ezequiel Durán headline the internal options. An addition seems likely, although it remains to be seen if Texas would circle back to Profar, who never met the extremely lofty expectations he’d had as a prospect in the Rangers farm system.
  • Marlins: The Marlins haven’t addressed the outfield this winter, but they added Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler on multi-year pacts last offseason. They could make Profar fit if they moved Soler to a more or less everyday designated hitter role, but another free agent deal for a corner outfielder might be too rich for their taste. That’s particularly true since most of their in-house younger outfielders (i.e. Jesús Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz, JJ Bleday) profile better in a corner than they do in center field.
  • Braves: Atlanta has thrown a few darts at left field this offseason. They’ve acquired Sam Hilliard and Eli White in minor trades while signing Jordan Luplow to a modest one-year deal. None of them should stand in the way of an impact left fielder, but Profar’s more of a solid stabilizing veteran than the kind of player who’d change a lineup. Between the trio of new pickups and in-house candidates like Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario, Atlanta may feel they’ll find at least one player in the group who can reasonably approximate Profar’s production.

Beyond that trio of teams, a few more stand out as possible fits. The Mariners have looked for ways to address left field. As with Atlanta, they have a hodgepodge of internal candidates for reps (Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, Sam Haggerty and Dylan Moore among them) and could feel better patching things together if they don’t land a clearer upgrade via trade. Seattle also has some questions about their remaining spending capacity. The Yankees haven’t attacked left field after losing Andrew Benintendi in free agency. Oswaldo Cabrera and Aaron Hicks are the in-house favorites for playing time.

The Royals have almost no certainty in either corner outfield spot. The Nationals are rebuilding but the Talk Nats blog tweeted a few weeks ago they were looking to bring in some outfield help. The incumbent Padres still make some sense. San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has made no secret of his longstanding affinity for Profar dating back to their overlapping time in the Texas organization. Fernando Tatis Jr. is likely ticketed for left field work once he returns from his performance-enhancing drug suspension, but adding another bat to the corner outfield/designated hitter mix could free Matt Carpenter up for more multi-positional work off the bench.

What does the MLBTR readership consider the best fits for Profar? Where will he wind up?

(poll link for app users)

Where Will Jurickson Profar Sign?
Padres 14.03% (1,174 votes)
Rangers 11.01% (921 votes)
Yankees 9.37% (784 votes)
Blue Jays 5.08% (425 votes)
Mariners 4.71% (394 votes)
Tigers 4.70% (393 votes)
Giants 4.26% (356 votes)
Braves 4.11% (344 votes)
Red Sox 3.93% (329 votes)
White Sox 3.55% (297 votes)
Mets 3.12% (261 votes)
Orioles 2.69% (225 votes)
Cubs 2.47% (207 votes)
Marlins 2.46% (206 votes)
Dodgers 2.34% (196 votes)
Cardinals 2.28% (191 votes)
Royals 2.15% (180 votes)
Astros 2.02% (169 votes)
Reds 1.86% (156 votes)
Brewers 1.79% (150 votes)
Rays 1.63% (136 votes)
A's 1.63% (136 votes)
Pirates 1.49% (125 votes)
Nationals 1.47% (123 votes)
Angels 1.37% (115 votes)
Twins 1.33% (111 votes)
Guardians 1.20% (100 votes)
Rockies 0.87% (73 votes)
Phillies 0.74% (62 votes)
Diamondbacks 0.32% (27 votes)
Total Votes: 8,366

 

Which Remaining Free Agent Hitters Were Shifted The Most In 2022?

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It was announced back in September that Major League Baseball would be implementing some new rules for the 2023 season. One such change will be the limiting of defensive shifts, with teams required to have two infielders on each side of second base and all four on the near side of the outfield grass at the time the pitch is released.

The exact ramifications of these changes will be discovered as the 2023 season progresses, but the hope is that some routine grounders turn into hits instead. Those players who have been shifted the most could stand to reap the most benefit from the new environment. The prototypical example of the hitter that is the most harmed by the shifts has been a plodding and pull-happy left-hander who can be neutralized by having an infielder in deep right field. However, each player is unique and will have been attacked in different ways, so let’s look at the data, with a minimum of 100 plate appearances required to be considered here. Which free agents were shifted the most in 2022? (Quick note that Stephen Vogt has been excluded since he previously announced 2022 would be his last season.)

1.  Rougned Odor – 93.8%
2. Kole Calhoun – 93.4%
3. Zack Collins – 88.9%
4. Brett Phillips – 88%
5. Brandon Belt – 85.2%
6. Mike Ford – 84.6%
7. Jed Lowrie (as a lefty) – 83.5%
8. Robbie Grossman (as a lefty) – 82.6%
9. Michael Perez – 81.8%
10. Mike Moustakas* – 81%
11. Tommy La Stella* – 80.5%
12. Josh VanMeter – 79.7%
13. Luke Voit – 76.9%
14. Colin Moran – 75%
15. Adam Duvall – 71.7%
16. Gary Sánchez – 70.5%
17. Dominic Smith – 70.4%
18. Jackie Bradley Jr. – 64%
19. Jurickson Profar (as a lefty) – 63.8%
20. Didi Gregorius – 60.3%

(* – Moustakas and La Stella technically aren’t free agents right now. However, they were both recently designated for assignment and are likely to be released given their onerous contracts.)

Odor has been quite awful at the plate recently, with his batting average finishing at .207 or below in each of the past four years. However, his batting average on balls in play has been at .244 or below in each of those seasons, well below his earlier career marks and the .290 league average in 2022. Perhaps the shift bans could get him closer to his earlier career number when he hit between .259 and .271.

Belt hit .285/.393/.595 over 2020 and 2021, good enough for a wRC+ of 162 which trailed only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper among all MLB hitters in that time. He was actually shifted more in those two seasons than he was in 2022. Injuries limited him to just 78 games and tepid production this year, but perhaps better health and some more open space on the field could help him return to being one of the best hitters in the league.

As for the rest, some of these guys are role players or aging veterans, but a few of them could be sneaky value pickups in the latter half of the offseason. Like Belt, many of them are coming off disappointing and/or injury-marred years and will be looking to bounce back in 2023. Grossman posted a 118 wRC+ over 2020 and 2021 but just an 82 this year. Voit had a 153 wRC+ in the shortened 2020 season but dipped to 112 and 102 in the past two campaigns. Duvall had a 108 wRC+ over 2019-2021 but an 87 here in 2022. Sánchez recorded a 143 wRC+ in his first two seasons but just a 96 in the following five years, including an 89 in the most recent campaign. Smith posted a huge 150 wRC+ over 2019 and 2020 but has slid to just 82 since. Profar is coming off a decent campaign and is arguably the best free agent still unsigned.

Astros Have Some Interest In Jurickson Profar

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The signing of Jose Abreu filled a big hole at first base for the Astros, but the reigning World Series champions continue to explore ways to upgrade their outfield.  Past reports have suggested that free agents like Michael Conforto or old friend Michael Brantley are on Houston’s radar, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link) adds Jurickson Profar as a new name under consideration.

Profar hit the open market after opting out of the final year (and leaving $6.5MM on the table) of his three-year deal with the Padres.  After some disappointing numbers in the first year of that contract, Profar rebounded to hit .243/.331/.391 with 15 homers over a career-best 658 plate appearances in 2022, and his offense translated to a 110 wRC+.

While this performance was strong enough for Profar (who turns 30 in February) to feel comfortable in exercising his opt-out clause, it does continue the roller-coaster nature of his last five seasons.  Alternating between solidly above and solidly below the league-average 100 wRC+ threshold, Profar clocks in at a 101 wRC+ in 2384 PA since the start of the 2018 season.  Between this inconsistency and Profar’s okay but not outstanding left field glove, it makes sense why teams have perhaps been hesitant about making a push for his services.  The Astros are the first team publicly linked to Profar since the offseason started.

MLBTR’s projection of a two-year, $20MM deal for Profar reflected these concerns about his market, but things could certainly pick up now that several other big free agents have some off the board.  Profar has the highest fWAR of any remaining free agent outfielder, and his offensive profile does contain such positives as a consistently low strikeout rate, and an increasingly excellent walk rate over the last two seasons.  While there has certainly been plenty of year-to-year variance in Profar’s numbers, it can be argued that he might still be a safer choice than either Brantley or Conforto, both of whom are coming off shoulder surgeries.  (Conforto didn’t even end up playing in 2022.)

Profar played only left field in San Diego last season, but he bounced around the diamond to play first base, second base, and the other two outfield positions in 2021.  While not the kind of true utilityman who could replace Aledmys Diaz (who signed with the A’s), Profar could at least provide some extra depth on the Astros’ roster.  The switch-hitting Profar could also help balance out a Houston lineup that is still heavy in right-handed bats.

Jurickson Profar, Robert Suarez Opt Out Of Contracts; Padres Decline Wil Myers’ Club Option

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Outfielder Jurickson Profar and right-hander Robert Suarez exercised the opt-out clauses in their contracts with the Padres, according to the MLB Players Association (Twitter link).  The two players have now officially become free agents.  Both players will take a $1MM buyout, with Profar opting for free agency over a $7.5MM salary for 2023, and Suarez leaving a $5MM salary for 2023 on the table.  In addition, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter) that the Padres have declined their $20MM club option on Wil Myers’ services for the 2023 season, and Myers will also get a $1MM buyout.

After a solid performance in his first season in San Diego, Profar inked a three-year, $21MM deal (with a $10MM mutual option for 2024) to return to the Padres during the 2020-21 offseason.  Given Profar’s lack of a consistent track record during his MLB career, the size of the contract was a surprise at the time, and any concerns immediately seemed justified when Profar struggled in 2021.  However, Profar was a 2.5 fWAR player in 2022, hitting .243/.331/.391 with 15 homers and a 110 wRC+ while playing some respectable defense as the Padres’ everyday left fielder.

Profar’s three-year deal contained opt-outs after both 2021 and 2022, and Profar naturally didn’t exercise his opt-out after the 2021 season’s disappointment.  In hitting the open market now, Profar’s three-year deal will end up earning him $13.5MM in total salary, signing bonuses, and his buyout.

Once regarded as the top prospect in baseball, Profar is entering his age-30 season and is now looking more like a solid regular, rather than the superstar status initially predicted for him almost a decade ago.  It’ll be interesting to see what his next contract looks like, though his opt-out is a logical move since he’ll surely top the $7.5MM figure.  Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has long had an affinity for Profar dating back those top-prospect days (when Preller worked in the Rangers’ front office), and another new deal with San Diego certainly doesn’t seem out the question.

On the flip side, last summer’s Juan Soto trade dramatically overhauled the Padres’ outfield picture, and Preller might choose to continue the remodel with Profar and Myers both hitting the open market.  There wasn’t any doubt Myers’ option would be declined, as the Padres have been trying to trade Myers for the last few years in order to get his contract off the books and ease up their luxury tax burden.  Since a trade partner couldn’t be found for Myers and the Padres had to eat virtually all of Eric Hosmer’s remaining salary in dealing him to the Red Sox at the trade deadline, San Diego ended up surpassing the tax threshold for the second consecutive season.

Myers inked a six-year, $83MM extension with the Friars in January 2017, and though San Diego obviously expected more from its investment, Myers still provided above-average (109 wRC+) over the life of the contract.  He hit .252/.327/.451 with 98 home runs over 2486 PA during the last six seasons, with injuries limiting his playing time in both 2018 and 2022.  In what might be Myers’ final season with the Padres, he missed close to two months recovering from knee inflammation, and played in only 77 games — Myers still had a respectable 104 wRC+ from a .261/.315/.398 slash line.

After spending his first six professional seasons in the Mexican League and in Nippon Professional Baseball, Suarez came to MLB in 2022, signing an $11MM deal that broke down as a $1MM signing bonus, $5MM in 2022, and a $5MM player option for 2023.  Though knee inflammation sent Suarez to the 60-day injured list, his rookie season was still quite a success, with a 2.27 ERA and a 31.9% strikeout rate over his first 47 2/3 innings in the majors.  He carried that success forward with a 3.00 ERA in nine innings during San Diego’s postseason run, though Suarez ended on the sour note of allowing Bryce Harper’s decisive two-run homer as the Padres were eliminated by the Phillies in Game 5 of the NLCS.

Suarez (who turns 32 in March) stands to build on that rookie year with a multi-year contract in his return to free agency.  He is another player the Padres will surely have interest in re-signing, but Suarez will draw plenty of suitors due to the vast number of teams eager to add velocity and strikeouts to their bullpens.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

The Opener: Astros, Options, Diamondbacks

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Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.

With the final game of the 2022 MLB season coming as soon as tomorrow night, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:

1. Astros Facing Decisions On Baker, Click

After a hard-fought Game 5 that afforded Justin Verlander his first pitcher win in the World Series, the Astros will look to clinch back home in Houston tomorrow night. As soon as they do, however, they’ll have to face the personnel decisions that their postseason run has put on hold to this point. Both manager Dusty Baker and GM James Click are on expiring contracts, and Astros owner Jim Crane will have to decide their futures with the franchise. The Astros are expected to ask Baker to return in 2023, and Baker has indicated that he would like to continue managing regardless of the outcome of this postseason run. The future is murkier for Click, however, as speculation has run rampant throughout the postseason that he may not be asked to return to Houston in 2023, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post mentioning the uncertainty surrounding Click’s future as recently as last night. While it’s surprising to see so much uncertainty around a GM who has captured back-to-back AL pennants and might add a World Series championship to his resume as soon as tomorrow night, reports of a personality clash between Crane and Click abound. Heyman suggests that the Astros may be interested in David Stearns, who served as their assistant GM prior to running Milwaukee’s front office. While Stearns has stepped down as president of baseball operations for the Brewers, he’s not likely to run the Astros or any other team during the 2023 season, for which he is still under contract in Milwaukee. Even if the Astros are indeed interested in Stearns as their long-term head of baseball operations, the question of who will be at the helm in Houston next season remains unanswered.

2. Option Decisions Loom

A number of players and teams are facing option decisions, and with the World Series set to end this weekend, those decisions will have to be made sometime next week. While some decisions, such as that of Nolan Arenado, have already been made, most are still up in the air. Anthony Rizzo, Jurickson Profar, and Jake Odorizzi are among the players with tougher decisions facing them on whether or not to test free agency. As for club options, the Dodgers have one of the tougher calls on Justin Turner’s $16MM option, as do the Brewers on Kolten Wong’s $10MM option. Additionally, many of the biggest names on the free agent market this season, such as Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Correa, and Xander Bogaerts, are technically not set to be free agents until they opt-out of their current contracts, though for decisions as clear as these this is little more than a formality.

3. Arizona Faces Outfield Logjam

Despite finishing the regular season with an unimpressive 74-88 record, the Diamondbacks are by no means a team without talent. Unfortunately for Arizona, however, a great deal of that talent overlaps heavily, as the team is flush with young, controllable, lefty-hitting outfielders. Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas highlight the bunch in terms of prospect pedigree, but Jake McCarthy had a breakout season in 2022, Daulton Varsho turned in a quality season as an everyday player spending most of his time in the outfield, Pavin Smith won’t be eligible for arbitration until after next season, and Dominic Fletcher is knocking on the door in Triple-A. Between the DH and some positional versatility — Varsho caught 175 innings in 2022, while Smith played a bit of first base — Arizona could find at-bats for most, or perhaps even all, of these players. A better solution for the Diamondbacks, though, would be to explore trades for one or two of these young players in order to shore up their pitching staff or address other holes in the lineup. Carroll and Varsho would likely be off-limits, but perhaps a team looking to get more left-handed bats into the lineup, such as either Chicago team or the Marlins, could be interested in acquiring McCarthy, Smith, or Fletcher. While it’s not inconceivable Thomas could be moved, after a rough start to his major league career in 2022, Arizona would likely be selling low on him in any deal.

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