No Momentum Towards Extension Between Padres, Luis Arráez
Infielder Luis Arráez is one year away from being a free agent. He has expressed an openness to signing an extension but it doesn’t appear anything is close on that front. Per a report from Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Friars have “not yet engaged in serious extension talks” with Arráez.
The fact that extension talks have not happened yet doesn’t necessarily mean that they can’t happen at a later date. Traditionally, clubs like to use this part of the calendar to focus on player acquisitions, leaving extensions for closer to spring training. However, Lin reports that there is some debate within the San Diego front office about how valuable Arráez is, which perhaps reduces the odds of extension talks gaining steam down the road.
On top of that, there are the ongoing budgetary questions to consider. The Padres were among the most aggressive clubs in baseball while owner Peter Seidler was still alive, but it was clearly unsustainable. In September of 2023, alongside news of Seidler’s deteriorating health, it was reported that their debt service ratio was not in compliance with MLB regulations.
The club had given out nine-figure contracts to players like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, alongside some other notable deals as they looked to remake the club’s image as a small-market also-ran. As they were sending that money out the door, less was coming in, as their TV deal with Diamond Sports Group collapsed.
Going into 2024, the club needed to cut some payroll but had limited options for doing so. All of those aforementioned deals were quite large and therefore hard to trade. Even if the Padres found interest, all of those players have full no-trade clauses on their deals. All of these factors, as well as a lack of rotation depth, seemed to lead to the Juan Soto trade. That allowed the Friars to make a big cut from their budget and duck under the competitive balance tax while also bringing back arms like Michael King and Drew Thorpe, with Thorpe later flipped as part of the Dylan Cease trade.
Going into 2024, the budget could again be an issue. Though they haven’t yet made any notable moves this offseason, RosterResource projects them for a $210MM payroll next year, more than $40MM beyond last year. They are also projected for a $244MM CBT number, just above next year’s $241MM base threshold.
It’s unknown what sort of exact payroll parameters the club has for 2025, but Lin suggests the budget is tight again. He reports that the Friars were interested in catchers Kyle Higashioka and Danny Jansen but came up short despite those backstops getting relatively modest deals. Higashioka got $13.5MM over two years from the Rangers while Jansen settled for just one year and $8.5MM from the Rays. That doesn’t suggest the club is working with a lot of financial firepower this winter.
Arráez would be a speculative candidate for a move to open some spending capacity since he’s effectively in the same position that Soto was last year. He’s going into his final year of club control and set to make a notable salary while several other players are locked into long-term deals.
Cease and King are also just one year from the open market, but trading either of them seems less likely. The San Diego rotation has a strong front three consisting of those two and Darvish but things get flimsy after that. Musgrove is likely to miss the entire 2025 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery in October. Martín Pérez just became a free agent. Matt Waldron and Randy Vásquez are options for the back end but neither is fully established at this point. If anything, the club needs to add to that group, so subtracting King or Cease wouldn’t make much sense.
Arráez, on the other hand, could make more sense as a trade candidate. He is one of the game’s best contact hitters, having won three straight batting titles, but doesn’t walk much or provide much power. He has only drawn a walk in 6.9% of his career plate appearances but has only been struck out 6.8% of the time, while never hitting more than ten homers in a season. His .323/.372/.418 batting line translates to a 120 wRC+.
That’s a unique approach in today’s game and Arráez is clearly the best at the things he does well, but it’s also a limited profile. He’s doesn’t steal a ton of bases and isn’t considered a strong defender at either second or first base, his two primary positions.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Arráez for a salary of $14.6MM next year. That’s far less than what Soto was slated to make in 2024 but still a lot of money for a useful but limited player. If the Padres were to trade Arráez, perhaps for some pitching, they could have an infield consisting of Machado at third, Bogaerts at short and Jake Cronenworth at second, perhaps using some of the savings to go after a cheaper option at first. Lin writes that the club would prefer to have Bogaerts at second like the start of the 2024 season but they would need a solution at shortstop with Ha-Seong Kim now a free agent and likely to miss the start of the 2025 season due to shoulder surgery.
This is largely speculative but Lin’s report that the front office isn’t convinced of Arráez’s value could perhaps nudge them more towards a trade than an extension. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has generally been unafraid to make bold strikes even when painful, as last year’s Soto trade showed, so the Friars could be a club to watch in the coming weeks if they shake up the trade market.
One player unlikely to be on the block is reliever Robert Suarez. Per Lin, the Padres are inclined to keep him as his contract has an opt-out after 2025, which complicates trade talks. The righty is set to make $10MM in 2025 and then $8MM in each of the next two years, though he can walk away from those final two seasons. He just posted a solid 2.77 ERA in 2024 and clubs would surely have interest in that kind of performance, but the contract provides a lot of downside. If Suarez suffered any kind of notable injury, he would surely decline his opt-out chance and linger on the books for those two years. Given that downside, a club may be reluctant to give up any kind of notable return or take on the entirety of the contract.
Lin also adds that the Padres are “hopeful, if not confident, about a potential reunion” with outfielder Jurickson Profar. After a dreadful 2023 season, Profar signed with San Diego for a guarantee of just $1MM in 2024. That turned out to be a massive bargain for the club, as Profar went on to hit .280/.380/.459 for a wRC+ of 139.
Profar and Preller have a long relationship, as he was working for the Rangers way back when Profar was signed as an international amateur. Since coming to the Padres, Preller has signed Profar multiple times. But on the heels of a career year, Profar might be looking to cash in. MLBTR predicted he could land a three-year deal with a $45MM guarantee. If Profar is looking for anything in that ballpark, it could be tough to get it from San Diego, given the aforementioned payroll restrictions.
Padres Notes: Profar, Higashioka, De Vries, Salas
The postseason will move on without the Padres involved tonight when the Mets travel to Dodger Stadium for Game 1 of the NLCS, and the Padres now figure to turn their attention to building for the 2025 season. Among the top needs to address on the club’s offseason to-do list figures to be addressing the needs created by the possible departure of pending free agents. Infielder Ha-Seong Kim is perhaps the club’s most high-profile free agent, though between his recent surgery leaving questions regarding his market and San Diego’s considerable depth in the middle infield, left fielder Jurickson Profar and catcher Kyle Higashioka are likely higher priorities for the club to either return or replace.
In the case of Profar, the 31-year-old has made clear that he prefers to stay with the Padres. Profar told reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) yesterday that he hopes to return to San Diego next year before acknowledging that the decision isn’t “totally in [his] hands,” adding that the Padres “have got to want [him], too.”
After signing a one-year deal with the Padres over the offseason that guaranteed him just $1MM last year, Profar enjoyed a breakout season that is sure to earn him a significant pay raise headed into 2025. In 158 games with San Diego this year, Profar slashed an excellent .280/.380/.459 (139 wRC+) with 24 home runs, 10 steals, a strong 11.1% walk rate and an excellent 15.1% strikeout rate. That strong all-around play came together to create by far the most valuable season of Profar’s career as he posted 4.3 fWAR, leaving him sandwiched between Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker as the seventh most valuable outfielder in baseball this year.
That strong season should make Profar among the most interesting free agents of the winter. Valuable as his offense was this year, he provides virtually no defensive value as a below-average glove limited to left field and his track record on offense is spotty at best. Profar’s career wRC+ is actually below league average (99) even after this year’s phenomenal campaign, and even his 107 wRC+ since first joining San Diego in 2020 is closer to solid than spectacular for a player of Profar’s limited defensive value. If those possible red flags leave teams cautious about giving Profar a hefty guarantee, it’s certainly feasible to imagine the sides working something out to keep the veteran in San Diego going forward.
Of course, a Profar reunion would only serve to further elevate what already figures to be a complicated payroll picture for the Padres next year. The club is currently set to be on the hook for just over $207MM according to RosterResource next year, with a payroll of more than $243MM for luxury tax purposes. It’s possible that offseason trades or perhaps even a creative extension for an arbitration-level player like Luis Arraez could lower those numbers, but the Padres nonetheless appear likely to be nearing their payroll capacity even before reuniting with Profar or addressing the multiple holes in the club’s rotation.
That could leave the Padres needing to scrimp on other parts of the roster, particularly if they hope to retain Profar. One position where the club could look to save money is behind the plate, where Kyle Higashioka impressed in his final year before free agency with 17 homers in 263 trips to the plate for the Padres this year. Much like Profar, Higashioka indicated an interest in returning to the Padres as he heads into free agency, telling reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that he loved playing in southern California and that his time with the Padres has been the most fun he’s had with a team.
With Higashioka potentially in line for a hefty raise this winter, however, Acee suggests that San Diego brass could instead look to part ways with both him and Kim this winter as they wait for the impending arrival of the club’s top prospects. Catcher Ethan Salas entered the 2024 season as a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball after reaching the Double-A level as a 17 year old, but Acee notes that shortstop prospect Leodalis De Vries, who turned 18 just two days ago, is even more highly regarded by Padres brass.
What’s more, Acee notes that there have been discussions within the organization about the possibility of both teenage phenoms making their big league debuts as soon as 2025. If the Padres truly believe both players could be ready for the majors sometime next year, that could incentivize them to focus on other areas of the roster this winter and stick to relatively short-term options behind the plate and at shortstop who could be pushed aside in the event that Salas or De Vries cracks the big league roster.
Of course, both players would need to rocket through the minor leagues at a breakneck pace to reach the majors next year. Salas spent the entire 2024 season at the High-A level and slashed a lackluster .206/.288/.311 in 111 games with the club, while De Vries slashed an excellent .238/.361/.442 across 75 games in his first taste of professional action this year but has not yet played above the Single-A level. While breakout rookie Jackson Merrill stands as an example of San Diego’s willingness to push top prospects aggressively, even he had nearly 50 games of success in the upper minors before cracking the big league roster.
Padres Notes: Campusano, Tatis, Profar
The Padres placed catcher Luis Campusano on the 10-day injured list today with a thumb contusion, per a team announcement. Catcher Brett Sullivan was recalled to the big league roster in a corresponding move. Fortunately, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune relays that the Padres don’t expect Campusano’s stay on the shelf to be a long one as it likely won’t require more than a minimum stay of ten days.
After a 2023 season where Campusano was limited to just 49 games by injuries but appeared to break out at the plate with a .319/.356/.491 slash line (good for a 134 wRC+), the former top prospect’s 2024 campaign has been somewhat disappointing. He’s appeared in 66 of the club’s games this year but has mustered only a .234/.282/.371 slash line, which even in the game’s current deflated offensive environment is good for a wRC+ of just 89. That’s hardly a terrible mark for a catcher, but it’s nonetheless a far cry from the offensive output San Diego was surely hoping for after Campusano flashed the ability to be a star-level bat behind the plate when healthy enough to take the field last year.
With the 25-year-old sidelined for the time being, veteran backup Kyle Higashioka figures to step in as the club’s regular behind the plate while Campusano heals up. That leaves backup duties to Sullivan, 30, who had a three-game stint with the Padres earlier this year after making his MLB debut with the club last season. In a 33-game cup of coffee with San Diego last year, Sullivan struggled to a .210/.244/.284 slash line in 86 trips to the plate and appeared to be below average defensively behind the plate both in terms of framing and controlling the running game, although he does have a reputation as a solid blocker.
While Campusano was the only player the Padres placed on the shelf today, he’s not the only member of their starting lineup nursing an noteworthy injury. As MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell explored last night, both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jurickson Profar exited yesterday’s game against the Brewers due to injuries. Profar departed due to tendinitis in his left knee that he’s been dealing with throughout the season to this point, while Tatis left because of a left triceps contusion, though Cassavell notes that he also appeared to be favoring his right quad, which he notes the young star has been playing on despite an injury for weeks.
Both players were out of the lineup today, though Profar told reporters (including Cassavell) today that he would be available off the bench for today’s game against Milwaukee and that he’s been managing the injury successfully to the point where it isn’t getting worse. Manager Mike Shildt, for his part, indicated to reporters last night that the club wasn’t especially concerned about either Profar or Tatis and that both believed they could play through their current ailments.
It’s easy to see why the Padres wouldn’t want to lose either player to the injured list. In 80 games this season, Tatis has looked good with a .279/.354/.468 slash line (139 wRC+) with eight stolen bases, while Profar leads all NL hitters with a .415 on-base percentage and sports an even more impressive 162 wRC+ as the club’s everyday left fielder. With the duo standing out as perhaps the club’s two biggest run producers in a strong lineup that also features Manny Machado, Luis Arraez, and Jackson Merrill, it’s hard to measure how difficult things could get for the Padres if they were to lose Profar and Tatis for a significant period. After all, that strong offense has only translated to a 40-40 record to this point in the season that leaves them in the mix for an NL Wild Card spot among a group of eight teams that are within three games of .500.
Jurickson Profar Is Rewarding The Padres’ Faith
The Padres overhauled much of the roster as they navigated payroll constraints last winter. The outfield was more stripped down than retooled, as San Diego traded Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to both offload Soto’s massive arbitration salary and address a pitching staff that lost four possible starters to free agency. While San Diego subsequently poked around the free agent and trade markets for outfield help, the payroll limitations led them to enter camp with two question marks alongside Fernando Tatis Jr.
Within a couple weeks of exhibition play, it became clear the Padres were going to turn left and center field to Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill, respectively. San Diego signed Profar for a barely more than the league minimum in mid-February. Merrill was a 20-year-old shortstop prospect who had never played above Double-A nor logged any game reps in center field before Spring Training. That outfield alignment at least carried ample risk. At worst, it might be the difference between making and missing the postseason for a fringe Wild Card contender.
Through two months, San Diego’s outfield has instead been its biggest strength. Tatis isn’t the same player he was before injuries and a failed PED test wiped out his 2022 season, but he’s an above-average regular. Merrill is hitting at a league average level and playing plus defense at his new position, remarkable work for a player less than three years removed from high school. Yet it’s Profar who has been by far the biggest contributor. He has not only been San Diego’s best player, he’s one of the top performers in the National League.
Profar is hitting .323/.421/.495 across 233 plate appearances. He has hit eight home runs, one shy of the total he managed in 125 games between the Rockies and San Diego last year. Profar is drawing walks at a personal-high 13.3% clip while keeping his strikeout rate at a customarily low 14.2% mark. He’s hitting the ball harder than he has at any point in his career. This season’s 41% hard contact percentage is almost 10 points higher than last year’s middling 31.7% rate.
There’ll very likely be some amount of regression in the next few months. Profar isn’t going to keep pace with the likes of Soto, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman all season. His career has been defined by wild swings in performance. Profar was a slightly above-average hitter in 2018, ’20 and ’22. His performance in the intervening odd seasons was at or below replacement level. Yet this year’s production is unprecedented even for an extremely high-variance player. Before this year, Profar’s career-best OPS over any 59-game span was an .876 mark he managed in the second half of 2018 while a member of the Rangers (h/t to the Baseball Reference Span Finder). This season’s .916 is 40 points higher.
Profar has already more than made good on San Diego’s $1MM investment. Even if his bat were to completely crater in the next few months, bringing him back would be a win for the Padres. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has long valued Profar more than the rest of the league (and most outside observers) would.
He made a surprising three-year, $21MM bet on the former top prospect during the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego brought him back last fall after Profar played his way off a Rockies team on its way to 103 losses. They didn’t bring in another left fielder to push Profar to the bench this spring. That’s largely because of financial constraints, of course, but San Diego also balked at what proved to be a $3MM price point for Tommy Pham while spending similar salaries on Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui and Woo-Suk Go. Preller certainly wouldn’t have anticipated Profar being the team’s best hitter, but it’s probably fair to say he had higher expectations for his left fielder than almost anyone else did.
San Diego heads into the weekend with a 30-29 record that has them in the third Wild Card spot in the National League. They’re still a borderline contender whose season could go a number of ways in the next few months. It would likely take a major collapse for them to sell at the trade deadline, so Profar should play the entire season in San Diego. He’ll return to free agency next offseason going into his age-32 campaign.
Profar has not previously received a qualifying offer, so he would be eligible for the QO if the Padres hang onto him all year. While it seems unlikely the Padres would put a one-year offer worth more than $20MM on the table, it’s not entirely out of the question depending on well Profar hits in the second half. If he hits the market unencumbered by draft compensation, he could land the biggest guarantee of his career. He’s at least trending toward a two-year deal and would have an argument for a three-year pact in the Jeimer Candelario ($45MM) or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($42MM with an opt-out) range if his bat doesn’t wilt down the stretch.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
MLBTR Podcast: Jorge Soler, Veteran Catcher Signings and the Padres’ Payroll Crunch
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Giants to sign Jorge Soler (1:25)
- The Brewers to sign Gary Sánchez (11:15)
- The Pirates to sign Yasmani Grandal (18:55)
- The Padres to sign Jurickson Profar (23:35)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Which teams do you think have a chance to exceed expectations this year like the Diamondbacks and Reds did last year? (26:00)
- Matt Chapman to the Cubs for one year and $27MM plus a $30MM mutual option for 2025 with a $3MM buyout, who says no? (30:40)
- Does Carlos Santana make the Twins better? (34:00)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Sale of the Orioles, Corbin Burnes Traded and Bobby Witt Jr. Extended – listen here
- The Jorge Polanco Trade, Rhys Hoskins and the Blue Jays’ Plans – listen here
- The Broadcasting Landscape, Josh Hader and the Relief Market – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Padres, Jurickson Profar Agree To One-Year Deal
Free agent infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar and the Padres are in agreement on a one-year deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The MVP Sports Group client will be guaranteed $1MM, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post, with the deal still pending a physical. Profar can also add another $1.5MM via incentives based on plate appearances, per Murray.
It’s a bit of an early birthday present for Profar, who turns 31 next week. His career has been extremely up-and-down, something that MLBTR covered in 2022. Last year was another downswing on that sine wave, with 2023 his worst season to date. He opted out of his previous deal with the Padres at the end of 2022, taking the $1MM buyout instead of the $7.5MM salary. He lingered onto the market until the middle of March but did eventually get a one-year, $7.75MM deal from the Rockies, narrowly edging out the money he left on the table.
The move to Colorado didn’t suit Profar. His 18.2% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate were pretty close to his career norms, but he hit just eight home runs in 472 plate appearances. Given the expectations of the hitter-friendly environment at Coors Field, his tepid .236/.316/.364 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of just 72. His defense was graded poorly as well, and the Rockies released him in August. He returned to the Padres late in the year and finished strong, but in a small sample of just 14 games. FanGraphs considered him to be two wins below replacement on the year while Baseball Reference had him at -1.3 WAR.
Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was a key figure in the Rangers’ international scouting department when Profar originally signed and was eventually ranked the top prospect in all of baseball. Multiple shoulder surgeries have derailed his trajectory, but Profar has still shown inconsistent flashes of solid MLB production and Preller clearly still holds an affinity for him. This will be his fifth season suiting up for the Padres, for whom he carries a .246/.334/.376 batting line in 1321 plate appearances dating back to 2020.
From the team’s vantage point, Profar helps to fill a dire need for outfielders. Prior to this signing, San Diego only had two outfielders on the 40-man roster: Fernando Tatis Jr. and light-hitting Jose Azocar. They’ve also been working top shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill out in left field and could consider the 20-year-old as an outfield option at some point this season, should that experiment go smoothly, though as it stands Merrill has played just 46 games at the Double-A level and has not yet played a single game in Triple-A.
The Friars have also been working to cut payroll throughout the offseason, so securing Profar at barely more than the league minimum surely held appeal. Profar at least gives the Padres three big league outfielders on the 40-man roster, but his signing likely doesn’t rule out the addition of another more notable signing/acquisition who could push the 27-year-old Azocar into a fourth outfield role for which he’s better suited. With Profar added to the fold, San Diego’s payroll now sits at a projected $159MM, per Roster Resource — more than $90MM south of last year’s franchise-record $255MM mark. The Padres have about $215MM worth of projected luxury tax considerations, however.
In all likelihood, there are still some additions to be made by the Padres between now and Opening Day. Their outfield depth remains perilously thin, and they’ve reportedly been exploring both the trade and free agent markets for ways to change that. Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran is reportedly one potential target. The Padres also have questions in the fourth and fifth spots in their rotation, behind top starters Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Michael King. In-house options include Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, Drew Thorpe, Matt Waldron, Pedro Avila, Jay Groome and Glenn Otto, among others, but the Padres are also still looking into the lower tiers of free agency. They reportedly have some interest in Noah Syndergaard and in Michael Lorenzen.
The Top Unsigned Corner Outfielders
Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in about two weeks but a slow offseason means there are still plenty of free agents out there. Over the past week, MLBTR has already taken a look at the remaining catchers, first basemen, second basemen, third basemen, shortstops, center fielders, designated hitters and starting pitchers, and we will now proceed to the corner outfielders.
- Jorge Soler: He probably won’t be considered an everyday fielder by any club in the league, but his bat is clearly a notch above anyone else on this list. Soler hasn’t been the most consistent hitter over the years but is excellent when he’s in good form. 2023 was an upswing in his up-and-down career, as he hit 36 home runs and drew walks in 11.4% of his plate appearances. He also kept his strikeouts to a 24.3% rate, a tad above league average but solid by his standards. Soler’s .250/.341/.512 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 126. He walked away from $13MM and the final year of his deal with the Marlins and is now surely looking for a strong multi-year deal. But despite that potent bat, he won’t be anything more than a part-time option in the outfield. He only made 31 starts in the field last year and was graded poorly when out there, having never really received strong marks for his glovework. Whichever club signs him will surely think of him as a designated hitter who can play the field on a part-time basis, at best. The Blue Jays, Mets, Giants and Angels have been linked to him this offseason, with the Jays perceived by some as the favorite to get a deal done.
- Adam Duvall: Though he has been seeing significant time in center field in recent seasons, Duvall has spent far more of his career in the corners. His work in center has been passable, but he’s now 35 years old and is probably best thought of as a corner guy who can cover center on occasion. At the plate, he doesn’t take many walks and also strikes out a ton, but he parks the ball over the fence often enough to be useful. He was punched out in 31.2% of his trips to the plate last year and only walked at a 6.2% clip, but he launched 21 home runs in just 92 games. His .247/.303/.531 slash translated to a 116 wRC+. Health is an issue, which is why his output was limited last year and he’s only once played 100 games in the last four full seasons. But the combination of solid outfield defense and home runs nonetheless makes him an attractive piece. Jon Heyman of The New York Post recently suggested that Duvall would be choosing between the Angels and the Red Sox.
- Tommy Pham: After a solid run from 2015 to 2019, Pham’s production has been up-and-down over the past four seasons. He had a rough time in the shortened 2020 season, bounced back in 2021 but then struggled again in 2022. His most recent campaign was another solid bounceback, a season he split between the Mets and Diamondbacks. His 9.8% walk rate and 22% strikeout rate were both a bit better than league average. Pham hit 16 home runs, and his line of .256/.328/.446 translated a wRC+ of 110. He also stole 22 bases and slotted in at all three outfield positions, though primarily in left. As the Diamondbacks made a World Series run, he was able to add another three homers and swipe another two bags in the postseason. Back in November, he said he had received interest from roughly 10 teams, but no specific clubs were mentioned and some of them may have moved on to other targets since.
- Aaron Hicks: Like many of the other names on this list, Hicks has been inconsistently productive in his career. He had a strong run with the Yankees from 2017 to 2020 but his results fell off from there. He was subpar throughout 2021 and 2022, continuing into the beginning of 2023, leading the Yanks to release him. He latched on with the Orioles and got back on track. In 65 games with the O’s, Hicks hit seven home runs and walked in 14.8% of his plate appearances, striking out just 20.8% of the time. His .275/.381/.425 line translated to a wRC+ of 129. He also stole six bases and played all three outfield spots. That’s a fairly small sample of work that followed more than two years of struggles, but Hicks will be a no-risk signing for whichever club lands him, at least from a financial perspective. The Yankees are still on the hook for his $9.5MM salary both this year and next, as well as a $1MM buyout on a 2026 club option. Any other club can sign Hicks for the prorated league minimum of $740K for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Yankees pay. It’s unknown what Hicks will be looking for in a landing spot, but since he’s already got a contract, he could look to prioritize playing time or joining a competitive club.
- Eddie Rosario: Rosario has been at least league average at the plate for six of the past seven seasons. In 2022, his wRC+ dipped all the way down to 62, but it rebounded to an even 100 in 2023. He dealt with some vision problems in that 2022 season and underwent a laser eye procedure, so it’s seems fair to write that year off as an aberration. Rosario hit 21 homers for Atlanta in 2023, though with a subpar walk rate of 6.6%. His .255/.305/.450 line was exactly league average, as mentioned, but Rosario’s platoon splits have become increasingly glaring as his career has progressed. His defensive grades have declined over the years as well, although he posted solid marks in 2023. Many teams will view him as a left field/DH option who’s best paired with a platoon partner. Atlanta declined a $9MM club option for his 2024 services. He’ll likely be available on a one-year deal that clocks in south of that sum.
Honorable mentions: Whit Merrifield, Randal Grichuk, Robbie Grossman, Austin Meadows, David Peralta, Jurickson Profar, Brian Anderson
Padres Select Jurickson Profar
Sept. 8: The Padres have formally announced the Profar and Rosario moves. San Diego has placed Sanchez on the 10-day injured list and moved righty Alek Jacob to the 60-day IL in order to open space on the roster.
Sept. 7: The Padres will select Jurickson Profar back onto the major league roster, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The Friars also plan to recall infielder Eguy Rosario from Triple-A. San Diego will presumably announce the moves before tomorrow’s series opener in Houston.
Profar returns to San Diego for the first time this year. The one-time top prospect spent the 2020-22 campaigns with the Friars. He hit .244/.333/.375 over that stretch, including a .243/.331/.391 showing in 152 games a year ago. He opted out of the final season of his contract and joined the Rockies on a $10MM free agent deal late in Spring Training, presumably after not finding the multi-year pact he’d been anticipating.
The 30-year-old’s stint in Denver didn’t work out. Profar slumped to a .236/.316/.364 slash despite spending half his games at Coors Field. While the delayed start to the season probably didn’t do him any favors, he never seemed to find a rhythm. Profar was hitting just .210/.288/.324 from the start of the second half until Colorado released him on August 27.
A few days later, the Padres brought him back on a minor league deal. Profar only suited up in four games for their top affiliate in El Paso before earning a return to the MLB roster. San Diego will have to formally select him onto the 40-man roster, though that won’t be an obstacle. The Friars could place any of Jake Cronenworth, Gary Sánchez or Ji Man Choi on the 60-day injured list to create a spot.
Profar has played exclusively left field at the MLB level over the past two seasons but picked up a couple starts at first base in Triple-A. He had plenty of infield experience earlier in his career and could potentially move around off the bench. With San Diego’s playoff hopes extinguished, it’s simply a depth add for the final few weeks. Profar will return to free agency at the start of the offseason. San Diego will pay him at the prorated $720K minimum level with the Rockies on the hook for the rest of his salary.
Padres Sign Jurickson Profar To Minor League Deal
The Padres have signed Jurickson Profar to a minor league deal, reports Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The outfielder, who was released by the Rockies earlier this week, will report to Triple-A El Paso.
Profar, 30, was with the Padres from 2020 to 2022 but opted out of his contract at the end of last year. He eventually landed with the Rockies on a one-year, $7.75MM deal but never really got into a good groove with Colorado. In 111 games this year, he hit .236/.316/.364 for a wRC+ of 72, the latest low point in his up-and-down career. The Rox are buried in the standings and cut Profar loose to get a look at younger players with control beyond this season.
The Padres aren’t too far ahead of the Rockies but have a slightly higher chance of salvaging their season. At 62-73, they are 8.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. FanGraphs gives them a 0.5% chance of making the playoffs while Baseball Prospectus is slightly more optimistic at 2.1%.
The Rockies are on the hook for what’s left of Profar’s salary, so there’s no risk for the Padres in bringing Profar back into the fold as non-roster veteran depth. If they add him to the big league club at any point, they would only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for the time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the Rockies pay. Active rosters expand from 26 to 28 today but Profar would have to be added to the 40-man before taking one of those slots.
Profar has played all over the diamond in his career but has exclusively been in left field since the end of the 2021 campaign. Juan Soto is the regular in left for San Diego but he could perhaps get some time off as the season winds down, or bump Matt Carpenter from the designated hitter slot. José Azocar and Ben Gamel are already on the roster as depth outfielders.
It seems that Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and Profar just can’t quit each other. Preller was with the Rangers when that club signed Profar as an amateur back in 2009. Preller eventually jumped to the Padres and acquired Profar from the A’s after the 2019 season. Profar reached free agency after 2020 but re-signed on a three-year deal. He opted out of the final year of that deal, though he says he didn’t want to, and is now back with the Friars and Preller again.
Rockies Release Jurickson Profar
The Rockies have released outfielder Jurickson Profar, The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders reports (X link). Profar’s spot on the roster will be taken by prospect Hunter Goodman, whose contract has been selected from Triple-A. Goodman’s impending big league promotion was first reported yesterday by the Blake Street Banter X feed.
Profar’s tenure in the Mile High City ends after 111 games, 472 plate appearances, and a disappointing .236/.316/.364 slash line. Only three qualified hitters have a lower wRC+ in 2023 than Profar’s 72 wRC+, and his -1.9 fWAR is the lowest of any qualified hitter in baseball. It wasn’t at all what Profar or the Rockies were hoping when they agreed to a one-year, $7.75MM free agent deal back in March, and Colorado has now chosen to part ways with Profar entirely in order to open up more time for younger players.
Today’s news will again put a spotlight on Profar’s decision to enter the free agent market last winter, as he opted out of the final year of his previous contract with the Padres in search of a longer-term and more lucrative pact. However, the market didn’t deliver such a deal, and Profar ended up having to wait until the middle of March to sign with Colorado. Between his Rockies salary and the $1MM buyout he received from opting out, Profar ended up making a bit more money than if he’d just remained in his Padres contract for a $7.5MM salary for the 2023 season, yet it is hard to view the situation as a win given Profar’s season-long struggles.
The long wait in free agency likely contributed to those struggles, as Profar didn’t really have much of a Spring Training, though he did get some high-level competition while playing for the Netherlands during the World Baseball Classic. Rockies manager Bud Black also recently said that Profar had been “been battling that [left] knee for a little,” so it possible this nagging injury might have been a factor in Profar’s lack of production.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that Profar’s 2023 fortunes might have been different if he’d stayed in San Diego, had a full spring, or stayed healthy. Given the up-and-down nature of Profar’s career, his dropoff this season can’t be viewed as a total surprise, as Profar’s last six seasons have alternated positive wRC+ numbers to below-average offensive production. His solid work with the Padres in the shortened 2020 season led to his re-signing with the club on a three-year, $21MM free agent deal that winter, though Profar again didn’t hit well in 2021, which led him to decline his first opt-out opportunity in the 2021-22 offeason. He then bounced back to hit .243/.331/.391 over 658 PA in 2022, translating to an 111 wRC+ and 2.6 fWAR, and giving Profar the confidence to test the open market again.
With this in mind, Profar might well rebound for another good year in 2024, though it is possible he might be able to catch on with another club before this season is out. Despite his rough numbers this year, his track record of success as recently as 2022 and his past status as an elite prospect might still catch the attention of a club in need of outfield depth. Signing Profar would cost a team only a prorated minimum salary, as the Rockies are on the hook for the remainder of the $7.75MM owed.
Goodman is set to make his MLB debut today, suiting up at catcher in Colorado’s lineup. The 23-year-old has an interesting defensive skillset, as he has seen plenty of time as a catcher, first baseman, and left fielder over his three professional seasons. However, Goodman’s power bat is what punched his ticket to the majors, as he is hitting .259/.338/.581 with 34 homers over 467 combined PA at Double-A and Triple-A. Goodman has only 15 games and 67 PA under his belt with Triple-A Albuquerque, but he has a 1.321 OPS over his brief stint with the Rockies’ top affiliate.
A fourth-round pick for the Rox in the 2021 draft, Goodman is ranked 10th by Baseball America and 12th by MLB Pipeline in their listings of Colorado’s best prospects. There is no doubt about his power potential, as BA’s scouting report gives him a 70-grade in power and notes that Goodman “produces big-time bat speed with a violent, leveraged swing.” This pop has helped Goodman be very productive at the plate despite a relatively lacking average and OBP, as he still need more overall polish to his approach. Defensively, Goodman can play multiple positions but he might top out at average whenever he lines up on the diamond.
With the Rockies well out of contention, the team has looked to several youngsters early in their big league careers in order to get a head start on evaluations heading into 2024. If Goodman can hit well in his first trip to the Show, he’ll earn consideration as an interesting bench or part-time option heading into next season, as he wouldn’t be relegated to only backup duty behind starting catcher Elias Diaz.