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Justin Smoak

Trade Candidates: Top 5 Hitters By xwOBA

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Plenty of major league hitters are trade candidates leading up to the July 31 deadline, but which ones truly stand out as players who could help a team’s offense down the stretch? Let’s take a look at the cream of the crop (minimum 100 plate appearances), with help from the enormous trade candidates list MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams put together last week and Statcast’s expected weighted-on base average metric…

Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays: expected weighted-on base average: .387; real wOBA: .332

  • Smoak’s .211/.350/.406 line (106 wRC+) isn’t pretty, nor does the impending free-agent first baseman play a premium position. However, judging by the 55-point gap between his xwOBA and wOBA, the switch-hitting Smoak has been one of the unluckiest batters in baseball this year and someone whose presence could be a late-season boon for a playoff-level team. He’s also sporting an unfortunate .219 batting average on balls in play, down from a lifetime .267, and has amassed almost as many unintentional walks (49) as strikeouts (60).

Franmil Reyes, OF, Padres: xwOBA: .379; real wOBA: .350

  • Unlike Smoak, Reyes comes with several seasons of control. The 24-year-old won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2021 or free agency until the conclusion of 2024, so prying Freyes from the up-and-coming Padres wouldn’t be an easy task. While Reyes’ work in right field hasn’t been great this year (minus-6 Defensive Runs Saved, neutral Ultimate Zone Rating), he has established himself as an above-average offensive player dating back to his 2018 debut. This season, the right-handed slugger’s slashing .253/.307/.540 (115 wRC+) with the majors’ seventh-most home runs (25). Reyes is also a Statcast favorite, not just because of his impressive xwOBA. He ranks in the 76th percentile or better in expected batting average, hard-hit percentage, expected slugging percentage and exit velocity.

Brandon Belt, 1B, Giants: xwOBA: .370; real wOBA: .343

  • The numbers aren’t quite up to date for Belt, who collected a pair of hits during the Giants’ destruction of the Rockies on Monday afternoon. They don’t alter the picture much, though – with or without them, the 31-year-old Belt has long been a quality major league hitter. Belt has dealt with his fair share of injuries, however, and isn’t locked up to an appealing contract, which are factors that hamper his trade value. He’s on a $16MM salary this year and will earn the same total in each of the next two seasons. Belt also has the right to block a trade to 10 teams.

Trey Mancini, OF/1B, Orioles: xwOBA: .354; real wOBA: .353

  • There are large xwOBA/wOBA gaps for Smoak, Reyes and Belt, but Mancini’s production is apparently just about where it should be. The 27-year-old has batted a strong .281/.340/.500 (119 wRC+) with 17 homers in 373 PA, and as someone who’s on a minimum salary in 2019 and has three seasons of arbitration control left, he could interest teams as a long-term offensive building block. That said, Mancini brings little to the table on the defensive side, and Orioles general manager Mike Elias doesn’t seem inclined to trade him unless a highly beneficial offer comes along.

Kole Calhoun, OF, Angels: xwOBA: .351; real wOBA: .337

  • Whether the Angels are poised to sell this month is up for debate. After all, they’re a decent 48-46 and five games back of a wild-card spot. If they do deal veterans, though, the 31-year-old Calhoun may hold appeal to other teams. Calhoun has bounced back from a miserable 2018 at the plate to hit .238/.323/.485 (112 wRC+) with 21 homers and a career-high .247 ISO in 373 PA this season, helping put him on track for his fifth campaign of at least 2.0 fWAR. He’s also an adept defender who has posted 2 DRS and a 1.6 UZR in the outfield (mostly right) this year. Because of his solid production this season, Calhoun might not be a pure rental. He’s making $10.5MM now and is controllable through 2020 on a $14MM club option (with a $1MM buyout).

Blue Jays Place Justin Smoak On IL

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The Blue Jays are placing first baseman Justin Smoak on the 10-day injured list with a quad issue, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports. Toronto has recalled right-hander Justin Shafer from Triple-A Buffalo to take Smoak’s roster spot.

Toronto’s well out of playoff position, meaning this injury won’t affect its chances of contending. However, depending on the severity, it could put a damper on the Blue Jays’ July 31 trade deadline plans. As an impending free agent on an $8MM salary, Smoak stands out as a potential trade chip for the club. There has been talk of a potential extension for the switch-hitting 32-year-old, though.

A Blue Jay since 2015, Smoak morphed into a formidable offensive presence in 2017 and has remained a quality producer since. The former top prospect’s numbers are down a bit this year relative to the previous two seasons, but he’s still hitting a solid .226/.364/.423 (115 wRC+) with 12 home runs in 261 plate appearances.

AL East Notes: Pearce, Smoak, Orioles

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It was on this day in 1925 that the legendary Lou Gehrig replaced Wally Pipp in the Yankees’ lineup, beginning Gehrig’s then-record streak of 2130 consecutive games played.  While both Pipp and the Yankees themselves were slumping at the time, Gehrig’s insertion into the lineup wasn’t only meant as a way to give a promising youngster some at-bats.  Pipp was given a day off due to a headache, which according to some reports was suffered after being hit in the head with a pitch from a teammate during batting practice.  Since that fateful day, Pipp’s name has become synonymous with being replaced — whenever a player goes on a hot streak replacing an injured teammate, you can count on an announcer mentioning that the injured player might “be Wally Pipp’ed” out of a job.  This unusual legacy has overshadowed a very solid career from Pipp, who hit .281/.341/.408 over 7838 plate appearances with the Yankees, Reds, and Tigers from 1913-28, including serving as the starting first baseman on the Yankees’ first World Series championship team, in 1923.

The latest from around the AL East…

  • The Red Sox re-signed Steve Pearce on a one-year, $6.25MM contract last November in the wake of Pearce’s epic performance as the World Series MVP.  The deal looked like a solid move at the time, though as the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham notes, now looks like a misstep given Pearce’s rough 2019 season.  Pearce has slashed just .180/.245/.258 over 99 plate appearances, and is currently on the IL with back spasms.  Considering that many comparable first base/DH types of free agents signed for considerably less than Pearce’s $6.5MM guarantee last offseason, the contract now looks like an overpay in hindsight.  A few million dollars normally wouldn’t be a big issue for a wealthy team like the Red Sox, though with the Sox wanting to stay under the $246MM maximum penalty luxury tax threshold, Abraham notes that signing Pearce to a smaller deal (or letting him go altogether) would have freed up more money for Boston to pursue some needed bullpen help, either in the offseason or at the deadline.
  • Could Justin Smoak go from trade candidate to extension candidate?  As Ken Rosenthal opines in his latest FOX Sports video update, the Blue Jays’ efforts to deal Smoak at the deadline could be hampered by the fact that teams have been increasingly hesitant to give much up for veteran first base/DH players.  Smoak’s age (32) and status as a rental player could also work against the Jays in netting any significant return for the first baseman.  With this in mind, Rosenthal suggests that Toronto could explore retaining Smoak as a veteran leader to help the club through its rebuild, perhaps on a one- or two-year extension to split first base and DH duties with Rowdy Tellez.  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s ability to stick at third base will factor into such a decision, of course, and I’d also add that the Blue Jays might not want to return to a fairly inflexible first base/DH situation so soon after parting ways with Kendrys Morales.
  • While the Orioles have suffered from disastrous pitching, their everyday lineup has featured some unexpected bright spots, the Baltimore Sun’s Peter Schmuck writes.  Names like Renato Nunez, Dwight Smith Jr., Pedro Severino, and Hanser Alberto were all acquired in unheralded fashion over the last year, yet all four have delivered decent to above-average production at the plate.  Some of this could stem from a simple increase in playing time, as all four players are getting the chance at regular at-bats for the first time.  Severino, whose .268/.351/.474 slash line through 112 PA dwarfs his previous output as a member of the Nationals, noted that “My job over there [in Washington] was to have the mentality to win the game and call a good game and not think about my offense….It was tough to play once a week and take one at-bat in the ninth inning against a good closer. That’s really tough.”  It remains to be seen if any of this quartet will develop into long-term pieces for the rebuilding Orioles, though if nothing else, the O’s could have some extra trade chips to consider for the July 31st deadline.

NL West Notes: Dodgers, Ramos, Rox, Smoak, Desmond, Pads, Profar

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The Dodgers reached out to free agent backstop Wilson Ramos with interest, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter). It seems, though, that the Dodgers are angling for a one-year pact, while Ramos is still seeking a multi-year contract. A single-year deal for Ramos appears unrealistic, given that he’s one of the two best catchers on the market – along with Dodgers free agent Yasmani Grandal – and is coming off an excellent offensive season. MLBTR predicts Ramos, 31, will receive a three-year, $36MM guarantee, which should put him out of the Dodgers’ reported range. Either way, with Austin Barnes as the only catcher who has significant major league experience on its roster, LA seems likely to add a backstop sometime this offseason. The club is reportedly among those still in the hunt for Marlins star J.T. Realmuto.

More on a few other NL West teams…

  • The Rockies have at least given internal consideration to pursuing Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak, according to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (Twitter link). It seems the Rox could also consider some free agent bats, with MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writing that Daniel Murphy, Neil Walker, and Logan Morrison are all on the club’s radar. Colorado received National League-worst production at first base last season, putting it in the market for help there. Smoak, meanwhile, put together his second straight solid offensive campaign. He’s due an affordable $8MM in 2019, and MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted in October that he’d make sense for the Rockies. Murphy, Walker and Morrison were less successful than Smoak in 2018, but they’ve experienced varying degrees of success and should come at affordable prices this winter. Further, both Murphy and Walker are versatile enough to line up at multiple positions.
  • More on the Rockies from Harding, who reports that right-hander Jon Gray and utiliyman Ian Desmond drew trade interest at the Winter Meetings. It’s no surprise teams inquired about Gray, a potential front-end starter with three years of control left, but there’s no word no whether the Rockies would consider dealing the 27-year-old. Desmond isn’t nearly as appealing, on the other hand, but “teams were receptive to discussing” him, Harding writes. Not only has the 33-year-old Desmond combined for minus-1.5 fWAR since 2017, but he’s still owed $40MM through 2021 (including a $2MM buyout of his $15MM club option for 2022).
  • The Padres are discussing a contract with shortstop Freddy Galvis, but it appears “unlikely” the two sides will reach an agreement, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports. Now a free agent, Galvis spent last season in San Diego after the team acquired him from Philadelphia last December for young right-hander Enyel De Los Santos, who’s now the Phillies’ ninth-ranked prospect at MLB.com. The 29-year-old Galvis posted below-average offensive numbers (.248/.299/.380, good for an 85 wRC+, in 656 plate appearances) and earned mixed reviews at short (seven DRS, minus-4.4 UZR).
  • Continuing with the Padres, they’ve reached out to the Rangers regarding infielder Jurickson Profar, but the chances of a deal happening are “faint,” Dennis Lin of The Athletic relays (subscription required). Padres general manager A.J. Preller is a fan of Profar from his days as an executive with the Rangers. However, he’s not having much luck prying the 25-year-old Profar and his two remaining seasons of team control from Texas.

Blue Jays To Exercise Club Option On Justin Smoak

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The Blue Jays will exercise their $8MM club option on first baseman Justin Smoak, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link). The decision to do so over a $250K buyout seemed rather straightforward on the heels of a second consecutive strong season for the switch-hitting slugger.

[Related: Toronto Blue Jays depth chart]

Smoak, 32 in December, broke out with a massive .270/.355/.529 batting line and 38 homers in 2017, and while he didn’t quite replicate that production in 2018, he still enjoyed a strong performance at the plate. In 594 plate appearances, he hit .242/.350/.457 with 25 big flies and 34 doubles in the heart of the Toronto batting order.

Smoak’s initial two-year, $8.5MM extension with the Blue Jays back in the summer of 2016 drew some criticism but ultimately proved to be a feather in the cap of GM Ross Atkins and president Mark Shapiro. His option value jumped from $6MM to $8MM this season when he reached a combined total of 1100 PAs between the 2017-18 seasons, and he’ll now give the Jays either an affordable middle-of-the-order bat for the 2019 season or an interesting trade chip to market to other clubs this winter or next summer. While slugging first basemen generally haven’t been valued as much in recent seasons as they were even five years ago, Smoak still ranks among the game’s most productive hitters over the past two seasons and is a legitimate bargain at that modest one-year commitment.

Heyman’s Latest: Hamels, Smoak, Nunez, Bregman, Padres

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The Cubs seem likely to pick up left-hander Cole Hamels’ $20MM option for 2019, Jon Heyman of Fancred writes. The club could instead buy out Hamels for $6MM, a sum his previous team – the Rangers – would cover, though that would be a surprise in the wake of his second-half performance. After the Cubs acquired Hamels in late July, he pitched to a 2.36 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 over 76 1/3 innings. Thanks in part to Hamels’ excellent results over the final couple months of the season, Cubs president Theo Epstein recently called the 34-year-old a “breath of fresh air.”

Here’s more from Heyman’s latest column:

  • Surprisingly, despite his quality production from 2017-18 and his reasonable price tag for next season, the Blue Jays aren’t certain to exercise first baseman Justin Smoak’s option, according to Heyman. Toronto must decide whether to bring back Smoak for $8MM or cut him loose and pay $250K. But if the team’s uninterested in retaining Smoak, perhaps it’ll pick up the soon-to-be 32-year-old’s option and shop him to first base needy-clubs. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently took a look at several teams that could pursue a deal for the switch-hitting Smoak, who slashed .242/.350/.457 (121 wRC+) with 25 home runs in 594 PA this year.
  • Red Sox infielder Eduardo Nunez is “likely” to exercise his $5MM player option, per Heyman. Nunez could otherwise opt out and receive $2MM, but he’d be doing so on the heels of a rough campaign (heroics in Game 1 of the World Series notwithstanding). The 31-year-old hit a meek .265/.289/.388 (78 wRC+) in 502 regular-season plate appearances and accounted for minus-0.4 fWAR – the sixth-worst mark among those who totaled at least 500 PA. Notably, Nunez had a much better campaign in 2017, but he was still unable to secure a large guarantee as a free agent last winter.
  • Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud is a non-tender candidate, Heyman relays. The oft-injured d’Arnaud is projected to earn $3.7MM in 2019, his last year of arbitration, but the Mets could deem that too pricey in the wake of another injury-shortened season. D’Arnaud, 29, suffered a partial UCL tear in early April, limiting him to four games. With d’Arnaud unavailable, the Mets ended up relying on Devin Mesoraco and Kevin Plawecki behind the plate. There’s also uncertainty with Mesoraco heading into the offseason, given that he’s a pending free agent.
  • Astros superstar Alex Bregman is among those sticking with agent Brodie Scoffield, who recently left Legacy to start Tidal Sports Group, Heyman writes. The 24-year-old third baseman is coming off a tremendous season in which he hit .284/394/.532 (157 wRC+) with 31 home runs, more walks (96) than strikeouts (85) and 7.6 fWAR across 705 trips to the plate. Bregman’s in line to play his final pre-arb season in 2019.
  • Some manager-needy teams recently requested interviews with Padres executive Moises Alou, but the 52-year-old spurned those overtures, Heyman reports. Alou, a big league outfielder from 1990-2008, joined San Diego’s front office in 2015. He doesn’t have any managerial experience, though it does run in his family. His father, Felipe Alou, managed the Expos (1992-2001) and Giants (2003-06) to a combined 1,033-1,021 record, and he took home NL Manager of the Year honors during the strike-shortened ’94 season.

Looking For A Match In A Justin Smoak Trade

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The last two offseasons haven’t been too kind to the classic first base-only slugger, as teams have been increasingly less keen to spend their free agent dollars or trade assets on a player who is only viable at a single position (and the easiest position on the field to fill, at that).  As Jeff Todd recently noted in his Market Snapshot of this offseason’s first base options, there are many more intriguing everyday first basemen available in trades than in free agency, though even many of the top potential trade chips carry question marks.

For instance, it isn’t clear whether or not the Diamondbacks would actually be willing to trade face of the franchise Paul Goldschmidt, or if they’ll take a less drastic approach to their offseason maneuvering.  Jose Abreu has been mentioned in trade rumors for a couple of years now, though the White Sox have been unwilling to deal their clubhouse leader, plus Abreu’s stock may have dropped coming off the worst of his five MLB seasons.  The likes of Brandon Belt, Wil Myers, or Carlos Santana carry pricey multi-year commitments, while other first base options might only be suited for platoon duty (i.e. Eric Thames, Justin Bour), might be too hard to acquire in a trade due to years of control (i.e. Jose Martinez), or have yet to prove themselves at the Major League level (i.e. Greg Bird, Dominic Smith).

This leaves Justin Smoak standing out as perhaps the clearest, and most decidedly available, first base upgrade of the offseason.  Unlike the D’Backs or White Sox, the Blue Jays are certainly to open to all offers on their veterans, after having already unloaded much of their experienced talent last season.  Contract-wise, Smoak is a fit in virtually any payroll, as he is controlled only through the 2019 season (via a club option that the Jays will certainly exercise) and at a price of just $8MM.  That makes him a decidedly less expensive proposition than Belt and company, or even players like Goldschmidt ($14.5MM club option) and Abreu (a projected $16MM salary in arbitration) who are also controlled only through 2019.

Smoak’s option will bring the total value of his contract to three years and $16.25MM, and getting some good young talent back for Smoak in a trade would be the icing on the cake of what has proven to be a shrewd extension for the Jays.  Once a top-ranked prospect, Smoak still hadn’t found consistency at the MLB level when the Jays acquired him off waivers from the Mariners after the 2014 season, or even when he signed that extension partway through the 2016 season.  Upon taking over the everyday first base job in the wake of Edwin Encarnacion’s departure, however, Smoak has enjoyed a late-career breakout, cracking 63 homers and hitting .256/.353/.495 over 1231 PA since the start of the 2017 season.

Smoak brings no value on the basepaths (-7.3 BsR in 2018), and the advanced metrics are somewhat mixed on his fielding, as he has alternated between above-average and below-average UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved totals in each of the last four seasons.  Beyond just that middling glovework, Smoak — who turns 32 in December — can’t play elsewhere in the field.  A team in need of offense, however, could be willing to overlook these drawbacks for a switch-hitter who has created 28 percent more runs (128 wRC+) than the average big league hitter over the last two seasons.

Let’s check out which teams make sense as potential Smoak suitors this winter.  After writing off the teams that are rebuilding and/or are already set at first base (Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Reds, Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals, Phillies, Nationals, Mets, Marlins, Braves, Rangers, Athletics, Royals, White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Orioles), that leaves us with…

Longshots

  • Angels: They almost surely belong in the previous category since Albert Pujols and his hefty contract ($87MM remaining) are still on the books through the 2021 season.  Pujols has, however, been the second-worst qualified player in baseball over the last two seasons as judged by the fWAR metric (-2.0 fWAR), and he’ll be asked to play even more first base since Shohei Ohtani will take an increasing number of DH at-bats in 2019.  The thought is that the Angels will look for a part-time first baseman, though there’s at least a slim chance that they could look to acquire a regular like Smoak and relegate Pujols to the role of a highly-paid bench bat.
  • Pirates: It’s too early to tell if the Bucs will make a full-fledged push to contend in 2019, and if they do, they arguably already have a first baseman in Josh Bell.  Through two full seasons, however, Bell has just 1.5 fWAR total due to defensive and base-running shortcomings, plus his power numbers dropped off considerably last season.  I wouldn’t expect Pittsburgh to give up early on a young and controllable player, plus the Pirates would need to carve out some payroll space elsewhere to afford Smoak.
  • Diamondbacks: Well, if GM Mike Hazen plans to “be creative” with his offseason moves and doesn’t want a full rebuild, Arizona could deal Goldschmidt, and then acquire Smoak in a separate trade.  This keeps first base strong for the D’Backs while also saving $6.5MM in salary.  That said, this scenario is admittedly a little far-fetched.
  • Yankees: Luke Voit and Bird comprise New York’s current first base options, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see Miguel Andujar in the mix if the Yankees add a more defensively-adept third baseman (hint hint).  Between these internal options and more position-juggling if the Yankees re-signed Andrew McCutchen or added another outfielder, trading for Smoak seems like it would be pretty far down their list of options.
  • Red Sox: Mitch Moreland is still under contract for 2019, and with J.D. Martinez locked into the DH spot, Boston is likely to just look for a right-handed hitting first baseman (potentially a re-signed Steve Pearce?) as a platoon partner rather than look for a full-timer.

Potential Suitors

  • Rays: Smoak has a better track record than C.J. Cron, who the Rays are likely to cut ties with this offseason, though it isn’t clear if Smoak fits Tampa’s desire for an “impact” bat to hit from the right side of the plate (the Rays already have left-handed hitters Ji-Man Choi and Jake Bauers in the first base/DH mix).  Cron was also actually slightly more productive than Smoak in 2018, with a 2.1 fWAR and 122 wRC+ to Smoak’s 1.7 fWAR and 121 wRC+, and since Smoak earns more than Cron’s projected $5.2MM arbitration salary, the Rays might want more of a substantial upgrade.
  • Twins: This team has enough needs that they could take a step back to reload in 2019 rather than aim to contend.  If they do decide to make a push in a weak AL Central, however, a new first baseman could be required if Joe Mauer retires.
  • Astros: DH Evan Gattis and utilityman Marwin Gonzalez are scheduled for free agency, leaving a couple of holes in Houston’s lineup.  Yuli Gurriel might be able to step into Gonzalez’s utility role, so even if he still gets some time at first base, it leaves room for another player like Smoak in the mix.  If the Astros still have long-term plans for A.J. Reed, he wouldn’t be blocked by Smoak stepping in for just one season.
  • Mariners: The first base/DH situation in Seattle is very much up in the air, considering Nelson Cruz’s free agency, Ryon Healy’s struggles in his first year with the M’s, and where the team plans to play Robinson Cano and Dee Gordon in 2019.  Shifting Gordon back to his old second base spot and moving Cano into a second base/first base/DH timeshare would be a more defensively feasible, and likely wouldn’t create room for a player like Smoak unless Healy was dealt.  One can’t truly rule out any scenario when it comes to trade-happy GM Jerry Dipoto, however, and bringing Smoak back to Seattle could work as a short-term fix.
  • Rockies: Only the Orioles got less from their first base position than the Rockies in 2018, as Colorado first baseman combined for less than replacement-level production (-0.8 bWAR).  Regular first baseman Ian Desmond could face a move back to the outfield since Gerardo Parra and Carlos Gonzalez could leave in free agency, and Ryan McMahon hasn’t shown much to prove that he could handle the position at this point in his career.  The Rockies might prefer a proven veteran at first base as they look for their third consecutive postseason berth, and Smoak’s bat would be a nice addition for an overall lackluster Colorado lineup.  The Rockies have the clearest need at first base of any contender, and it’s worth noting that they already linked up with the Blue Jays on one recent deal, when Seunghwan Oh was traded to Colorado last July.

AL Notes: Salazar, Carrasco, Smoak, Didi

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Indians righty Danny Salazar is slated to begin throwing next month, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti tells MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (Twitter link). At the moment, the club isn’t certain whether it’ll utilize the hurler as a starter or reliever, though it does sound as if the plan is to tender him a contract. Salazar will almost certainly command the same $5MM salary he did this year after sitting out all of 2018 with shoulder issues. That’s a decent bit of payroll to stake on a return to form, though Salazar has real upside on the mound and will also remain controllable for the 2020 season.

Here’s more from Cleveland and the rest of the American League …

  • Speaking of payroll planning, the Indians will need to budget for a slight boost to the salary for fellow right-hander Carlos Carrasco. As Bastian notes on Twitter, the value on the club option in Carrasco’s extension rose by $750K (to $9.75MM) due to his fourth-place placement in the 2017 Cy Young voting. It’s not entirely clear from what’s known of Carrasco’s contract whether that prior voting performance also operates to boost the value of his 2020 option, which comes at a $9.5MM base price point.
  • It’s also worth noting that the Blue Jays will have to open their wallets a bit wider to hang onto first baseman Justin Smoak. By virtue of topping 1,100 total plate appearances over the past two seasons, he has boosted his 2019 club option value from $6MM to $8MM. That still seems to be a reasonable rate of pay for a switch-hitter who has carried a .256/.353/.495 batting line and launched 63 home runs since the start of the 2017 campaign. Smoak could well profile as a trade candidate, depending upon how the Toronto front office decides to approach the offseason.
  • Elsewhere in the AL East, the Yankees face a tough question on a player entering his final season of control. Joel Sherman of the New York Post argues that the team ought to strongly consider working out an extension with shortstop Didi Gregorius. Sherman wonders whether the recent Jean Segura contract (five years, $70MM plus option) might serve as a starting point in talks, rightly suggesting that it may well cost a bit more to lock up Gregorius. The 28-year-old is projected to earn $12.4MM in his final trip through arbitration and is a half-season closer to free agency than was Segura. He’s also fresh off of his best season, having posted a .268/.335/.494 slash with 27 home runs in 569 plate appearances. Outfielder Aaron Hicks and reliever Dellin Betances could also be considered for long-term deals, Sherman opines.

Heyman’s Latest: Harvey, Reds, Brewers, Royals, Smoak, Orioles

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Even though the Reds are out of contention and right-hander Matt Harvey is a pending free agent, the club opted against trading him to the NL Central rival Brewers before last month’s waiver deadline. Milwaukee won the claim for Harvey, but it turns out the Brewers only offered “Triple-A non-prospects” for the 29-year-old, Jon Heyman of Fancred hears. Considering that, not to mention Reds owner Bob Castellini’s reported affinity for Harvey, Cincinnati kept the ex-Met and will likely try to prevent him from leaving via free agency. Pitching will be an area of focus in general for the Reds during the offseason, per Heyman, who adds they may also be on the lookout for one or two outfielders.

More rumblings from Heyman…

  • Royals general manager Dayton Moore said back in April that the team wants skipper Ned Yost around beyond this season. At 46-94, the Royals have since endured a horrific campaign. Nevertheless, Yost remains in their plans, Heyman reports, adding that they plan to offer him a one-year extension. Whether Yost wants to keep the job for 2019, when he’ll turn 64 years old, isn’t yet clear. Yost is in his ninth season as the Royals’ manager, with the team’s World Series title in 2015 serving as the crowning achievement of his tenure.
  • Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak cleared trade waivers last month, but “a couple teams” did check in on him and some of Toronto’s relievers, Heyman writes. That’s not surprising in Smoak’s case, as the switch-hitter’s amid a second straight strong offensive season and comes with another affordable year of team control in the form of an $8MM club option. Perhaps the clubs that have shown interest in him this season will circle back over the winter, then.
  • Earlier this summer, Orioles vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette denied a report that the O’s had interviewed former Dodgers GM Ned Colletti for a front office position. However, an interview between one of Orioles owner Peter Angelos’ sons and Colletti did occur, according to Heyman. It’s still not known which position the two sides discussed, though, nor is it clear if Baltimore continues to have interest in Colletti. Notably, Duquette is about to reach the end of his contract – which could put the O’s in the market for a new baseball operations chief – but it’s not a lock he and the club will part ways, Heyman writes.

Players Clearing Revocable Waivers: Smoak, Cron, Flores, Duda

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The end of August is in sight, which means that final player transaction jockeying is taking place. To this point, we haven’t heard of many players to have cleared waivers, but the details of the process are rarely revealed as they unfold. August maneuvering involves multi-factor strategies that play out largely in the dark; that makes this time of year fascinating, in theory, but generally difficult to examine.

This evening’s reporting has revealed a few intriguing nuggets, though, two of which we’ve already covered (see here and here). And now we can add some new names to our list of players that can be freely traded, according to a report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

  • Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak went through without a claim. While that’s perhaps surprising at first glance, other organizations are surely aware that the Jays won’t be allowing the 31-year-old to walk for nothing. Accordingly, a claim isn’t likely to do much to facilitate an agreement. The switch-hitting slugger has largely carried forward his surprising 2017 output, turning in 487 plate appearances of .257/.363/.465 hitting on the current season. But he’s cheap this year ($4.125MM) and controllable for an affordable rate ($6MM) for 2019. While there’s obviously no reason to believe that Smoak is particularly likely to be dealt, he could still be an interesting chip for the Toronto organization — particularly if other quality hitters don’t make it through the wire.
  • The Rays have been rewarded for rolling the dice on first baseman C.J. Cron over the winter, and could now cash him in via trade. Of course, the 28-year-old first baseman cleared waivers in large part because there’s no pressure for the Tampa Bay club to part ways with him. Cron is earning just $2.3MM in 2018 with two more years of arbitration control remaining. He’s sporting a .250/.317/.480 slash with a career-high 24 long balls.
  • Elsewhere, Mets infielder Wilmer Flores has long seemed like an interesting target for a club in need of a little defensive versatility and an option against left-handed pitching (though he has, atypically, produced reverse splits this year). He’s earning a reasonable $3.4MM this year and comes with another arb year as well. Flores has been a steadily above-average producer at the plate for the last several years and has taken his plate discipline to another level this season (7.2% walk rate vs. 9.4% strikeout rate). While he has never been loved for his baserunning or glovework, he’s capable of playing anywhere on the infield (at short only in a pinch).
  • Former Flores teammate Lucas Duda, on the other hand, finds himself on this list for different reasons. The 32-year-old has struggled this year with the Royals, slashing just .235/.304/.395 with 11 long balls in his 313 plate appearances. But he has still handled right-handed pitching, with a 111 wRC+ when batting with the platoon advantages this year, and has certainly shown more overall in years past. Duda is also earning just $3.5MM this year before reaching free agency.
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