Lance Lynn

Poll: Still-Unemployed Top Ten Free Agents

By Kyle Downing | February 24, 2018 at 3:08pm CDT

Spring training has begun, and while recent announcements by the Cubs and Padres of nine-figure deals (with Yu Darvish and Eric Hosmer, respectively) have quieted cries of collusion from the player’s union, the unemployment level of top free agents remains historic. Specifically, five of MLBTR’s top ten free agents (excluding Masahiro Tanaka, who never actually reached free agency) are still unsigned. The recent mega-contracts have overshadowed the urgency of the situation for these free agents, as they’ve got barely more than a month left to find jobs before Opening Day. As each day passes, it becomes more difficult to simply assume that Jake Arrieta, Mike Moustakas, Lance Lynn, Greg Holland and Alex Cobb will all agree to terms before that time comes.

The market on the above players isn’t totally cold as of now. On the contrary, there seems to be some buzz surrounding many of them. Here’s what we know at the moment…

Arrieta and his representatives were said to be “having dialogue” as recently as four days ago, and it’s believed that there’s real interest being explored. At the same time, though, there appears to be a gap between the two sides’ bargaining positions. There have also been multiple recent reports that the Phillies don’t want to lock themselves into a long-term deal to improve their rotation. While Darvish fell short of expectations with a $126MM guarantee, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports says Boras is attempting to convince front offices that Arrieta compares more favorably to David Price, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke. The oft-vehement Boras apparently sees Darvish as an “analytics phenom”, but describes analytics as a “management excuse to keep salaries down.” He also says that Arrieta beats Darvish in something he calls “prestige” value. Heyman lists seven teams as potential landing spots for Arrieta, believing he’s most likely to land with the Nationals, Brewers or Phillies.

Moustakas seems to have little traction with any MLB club at this point. The Braves have engaged his camp, but there seems to be no evidence that a deal is likely to come together. The White Sox have also been loosely linked to him. It’s highly unlikely that he’ll return to Kansas City at this point, as the Royals would apparently rather give Cheslor Cuthbert a shot at third base as they begin to rebuild. Moose reportedly has plenty of one-year offers on the table, but it’s not clear whether he’ll receive any significant multi-year offers at this point in the offseason.

Lynn hasn’t been forced to dramatically lower his asking price, and last we heard, the Twins preferred him to the other options available on the market. Earlier reports suggest he’s received interest from seven or eight teams in recent weeks, including the Orioles, Brewers, Nationals, and Mets in addition to the aforementioned Twins. For his part, Lynn believes there’s “nothing really to worry about — at this moment.“

Holland has the coldest market on this list, at least publicly. The Wade Davis signing seemingly eliminated the possibility of a reunion with the Rockies, and in nearly two months since then, the only public mentions of Holland have been from the Nationals and the Cardinals. Both of those mentions were negative, with the former saying they weren’t very high on him and the latter expressing trepidation about giving a big contract to a closer. Of course, those teams could still be suitors if Holland’s asking price drops far enough, and so could the Indians. I also mentioned the Astros, Rangers, Cubs and Brewers as potential fits back in mid-January.

Cobb reportedly had an offer from the Cubs earlier in the offseason that was said to be in three-year, $42MM range. His camp passed on it, and his market has little in the way of clarity at this point. The Twins showed interest at one point, while the Mets would reportedly explore signing him if his asking price drops far enough. That’s about the only direct link between him and an MLB club we’ve heard about in recent months, though. The Orioles seem to believe he’s too expensive, and the Cubs might not have a clear role for him following the Darvish pact.

A lot can happen in one month; the free agent action so far in February should serve as a prime indicator of that. But at this point it looks possible that one or more of the top ten free agents could hold out into the regular season in hopes of nailing down a guarantee to his liking. With that in mind, I’d like to ask the readers two questions. How many of these players do you think will still be unemployed when the first pitch is thrown on Opening Day, and who do you think is most likely to be unsigned by that point?

Poll link for app users

Heyman’s Latest: LoMo, Braves, Moustakas, White Sox, CarGo, Lynn, Arrieta

By Jeff Todd | February 22, 2018 at 11:34pm CDT

There’s enough talent left on the free-agent market — including seven of the top twenty players on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents — that the overall assessment of spending could yet be swayed by contracts that have yet to be reached. (As always, you can review the action to this point in our 2017-18 MLB Free Agent Tracker.) As we wait for the final data points to be registered, it’s worth considering this recent piece from The Ringer’s Ben Lindbergh regarding the debate over player spending in comparison to revenue (as well as this earlier AP examination of spending and revenue from the spring of 2016). Calculating the players’ slice of the pie — and the size of the pie itself — is certainly a nuanced undertaking, and one for which complete public data is lacking.

The markedly sluggish timing of this year’s market, of course, is something that has already been established quite clearly. With an unprecedented number of top players still awaiting new deals as Spring Training opens, let’s take a look at a few of the most notable bits of information from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (from his latest notes column, unless otherwise noted):

At least as of a few days back, says Heyman, first baseman Logan Morrison was not sitting on any open offers. While LoMo’s representatives surely have an idea of what might be available, it’s rather notable that no organizations seem to be making a concerted effort to draw him. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently argued in favor of Morrison as a worthy free-agent target, but it certainly isn’t doing him any favors that the market still holds a few other quality slugger types. Still, Morrison’s excellent recent work at the plate would unquestionably hold out the promise of real improvement for a variety of organizations.
There’s still no evidence that the Braves are particularly likely to agree to terms with third baseman Mike Moustakas, but Heyman says there has been some amount of engagement — even if “there’s no common ground” to this point. The Atlanta organization, which Heyman says even considered Lorenzo Cain at one point, may have reduced 2018 flexibility after a salary swapping deal with the Dodgers moved some obligations forward. But it seems the team is still at least hunting around for interesting possibilities. As for Moustakas, Heyman notes he has “plenty of one-year opportunities,” but it’s not clear at this point whether a significant multi-year deal will be forthcoming. That’s surely disappointing after he turned in a strong 2017 season, though it is not atypical for some quality players to run into problematic market circumstances.
The White Sox have been linked, albeit loosely, to Moustakas, and it still seems as if the Chicago organization could have some tricks up its sleeves. While the focus, no doubt, remains on the future, the club is going to have some solid veterans and high-end young talents on the roster for the coming season. With just over $70MM on the books for 2018, perhaps the organization could yet pursue some one-year or multi-year deals that would hold out the promise of delivering excess value. Outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is a “possibility” for the South Siders, per Heyman. It stands to reason that the Sox might hold added appeal to players such as Gonzalez if they are willing to offer more playing time than might be available elsewhere.
With several starters locking in solid rates of pay of late, and the bullpen market heating up earlier in the offseason, pitchers seem generally to have had an easier go of things on this winter’s wacky market. Heyman writes that veteran righty Lance Lynn has not been forced to significantly drop his asking price. Indications are that the Twins, per the report, “seem to prefer” Lynn to other still-available starters. Heyman further reports that Jake Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras, still seems to believe that Arrieta compares more reasonably with pitchers who have landed mega-deals than he does with the recently inked Yu Darvish, who received a $126MM guarantee. Of course, we’re still waiting to see how those and a few other top open-market pitchers will end up doing when all is said and done.

FA/Trade Rumblings: Yanks, Lynn, Odorizzi, O’s, D-backs, D. Santana

By Connor Byrne | February 10, 2018 at 8:33pm CDT

The Yankees, continuing to seek help for their rotation, have “monitored” free agent right-hander Lance Lynn’s marketplace this offseason, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. However, a Lynn signing may be difficult for the Yankees because of their desire to stay under the $197MM luxury tax threshold in 2018. They have around $15MM to spend, Morosi notes, and Lynn’s next deal could pay him somewhere near that figure on an annual basis. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Lynn would receive $14MM per year.

More from New York and a few other major league destinations:

The Yankees have also shown offseason interest in Rays right-hander Jake Odorizzi, as have the AL East rival Orioles, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Odorizzi would represent an affordable option for the Yankees, Orioles or any of the other teams known to be pursuing him, as the 27-year-old will earn a bit north of $6MM in 2018 – his second-last year of arbitration eligibility. Although, given that Odorizzi’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, it’s debatable whether he’d be a good fit for either New York or Baltimore – both of which play their home games at home run-friendly venues.
The Diamondbacks and Brewers discussed outfielder Domingo Santana earlier this offseason, but the teams couldn’t work out a deal, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports. Milwaukee was seeking starting pitching in return for Santana, per Cafardo, which you’d expect for a team that has been on the lookout for rotation help throughout the offseason. The D-backs, meanwhile, want another outfielder and have attempted to re-sign the top hitter available in free agency, J.D. Martinez, making their interest in Santana understandable. Santana won’t even be eligible for arbitration until next winter, so he’d obviously make far less of a dent in Arizona’s payroll than JDM.
In addition to the previously reported Yanks, the Mets asked the Diamondbacks about utilityman Brandon Drury at some point this offseason, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. Drury is still with the D-backs, though a deal could still come together before the season, Piecoro suggests. It probably won’t be with the Mets, though, considering they’ve signed third baseman Todd Frazier, outfielder Jay Bruce and infielder Jose Reyes in recent weeks.

NL East Notes: Mets, Cole, Jay, Braves

By Jeff Todd | February 8, 2018 at 5:06pm CDT

As the Mets have now managed to check off their most pressing needs at fairly reasonable prices, some attention has turned to the question whether the organization might now go on to spend on a starter. GM Sandy Alderson noted that “some opportunities arose for us that probably would not have been expected right after the end of the World Series,” as James Wagner of the New York Times reports. Given the noted health questions for the talented Mets pitching staff, the thinking goes, perhaps the team will look to score some rotation value and thrust itself into clear contention status. To this point, though, the Mets “have yet to engage in meaningful discussions” with free agent hurlers Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Rather, the focus seems still to be on finding some pitching depth.

Latest On Market For Lance Lynn

By Jeff Todd | February 8, 2018 at 12:58pm CDT

Free agent hurler Lance Lynn has received interest from “seven or eight teams,” according to a report from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. His former team, the Cardinals, is not one of them.

Lynn, of course, declined a qualifying offer from St. Louis at the start the offseason. It seems the club is now content to allow him to leave, knowing that it’ll receive a draft choice after the Competitive Balance Round B selections so long as Lynn signs before this year’s draft.

Clearly, Lynn is worthy of punting some draft compensation. But while the CBA’s new qualifying offer rules have generally put that matter on the back burner, parting with draft value is still a factor in any free agent case. (MLBTR has run down what draft picks each team would need to sacrifice to sign a qualified free agent such as Lynn.)

As we’ve noted of late, Lynn has had a quiet offseason but remains an easy-to-visualize fit with quite a few organizations. Among the teams showing some level of interest, per Goold, are the Brewers and Cubs — two teams that are plenty familiar with Lynn from his lengthy stint with the Cardinals. The article also rounds up reported interest from other quarters, mentioning the Orioles, Twins, Nationals, and Mets as plausible suitors. Indeed, a run through MLBTR’s log of posts involving Lynn shows no shortage of possibilities.

Lynn himself discussed the situation with Goold, though he declined to get into specifics on teams. You’ll want to read the entire piece, as it’s loaded with interesting information and discussion, but generally Lynn suggests he feels comfortable preparing as normal despite his lack of a contract. “I haven’t missed anything,” he said. “There’s nothing really to worry about — at this moment.”

Goold also examines Lynn’s value against prior open-market players, suggesting the Tigers’ signing of Jordan Zimmermann — five years and $110MM, with strong no-trade protection — as a comp. While there’s certainly an argument to be made for that kind of analogy given Lynn’s bottom-line results, the view of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes — as explained first in the MLBTR Top 50 Free Agents list and expanded upon in his free agent profile of Lynn — is that the veteran righty isn’t quite in that stratosphere, due in large part to concerns with the peripherals. MLBTR has pegged Lynn for a four-year deal in the $14MM or $15MM annual range, citing a variety of teams as plausible fits on paper.

In large part, the overall market picture remains much the same as it was when Dierkes set out to evaluate things before the action got underway. Just how Lynn’s situation will shake out, though, is even more difficult to predict now than it was then. The overall tenor of Lynn’s comments, and Goold’s reporting, suggests that this free agent case is not particularly close to resolution.

Twins Reportedly Make Formal Offer To Yu Darvish

By Steve Adams | February 7, 2018 at 9:39pm CDT

After several months of back and forth negotiations, the Twins have submitted a formal offer to Yu Darvish’s camp, reports Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN in the latest episode of his podcast (audio link, Twins talk starting up at the 2:25 mark and running through 11:00).

Exact parameters of the offer aren’t known, but Wolfson cites multiple sources in reporting that the offer is four or five years in length. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required) reported yesterday that Darvish has received multiple offers worth $100M+, while Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported earlier today that he has “several” five-year offers. Given all three of those reports, it certainly seems plausible that the Twins have put forth a nine-figure offer to Darvish, which would easily be the largest commitment they’ve ever made to a free agent.

Minnesota, according to Wolfson, remains reluctant to push its offer for Darvish up into the six-year territory. To that end, while Darvish is the top target for the Twins, Minnesota has also remained in touch with the agents for a number of other free-agent starters, ranging from second-tier names like Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn. Other names mentioned by Wolfson include Jaime Garcia, Chris Tillman and Jason Vargas, so the Twins are understandably casting a wide net in the event that Darvish chooses another suitor. Notably, the team hasn’t made an offer to either Lynn or Cobb.

Perhaps more interestingly, Wolfson adds that the Twins are “maintaining pretty regular trade talk” with the Rays about the possibility of acquiring some rotation help, though Tampa Bay remains largely resistant to the idea of parting with coveted top starter Chris Archer. Jake Odorizzi’s name has been connected to the Twins on multiple occasions this offseason, however, and he could yet remain a target for the Twins. (More generally, he adds that the Rays have quite a bit of interest in outfielder Max Kepler, who has been the Twins’ primary right fielder in each of the past two seasons despite the fact that he’s not yet 25 years of age.)

A trade, though, would likely be a more serious option in the event that Darvish signs elsewhere; Wolfson notes that even after learning that Ervin Santana will be out for 10 to 12 weeks following surgery on his right middle finger, the Twins are only looking to fill one rotation spot.

Even with Santana sidelined for as much as the first month of the season, the Twins don’t appear to be in any kind of panic mode. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes wrote yesterday that the Twins believe Santana could be ready on the shorter end of his 10- to 12-week timeline. Even if he takes the full 12 weeks, Wolfson notes that the team will only need a fifth starter two or three times in April, given the large number of off days baked into the early-season schedule.

With Santana on the shelf, the Twins’ rotation will likely consist of whichever free agent/trade target they bring into the mix, in addition to Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia. The team also has a pair of prospects that have dotted top 100 lists over the past two seasons in Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero, plus veteran Phil Hughes returning from thoracic outlet surgery. Triple-A righties Felix Jorge and Aaron Slegers each saw brief glimpses of MLB action last year as well and could be leaned on for a spot start this coming April. Reliever Tyler Duffey will be stretched back out and given a shot at starting once again this spring as well, Wolfson notes. Righty Trevor May would be another option, though he’s not expected to return until late May, per both Hayes and Wolfson.

Suffice it to say, the Twins aren’t exactly lacking for depth, though the group of arms on which they’ll lean early in the year is, clearly, rife with question marks. A veteran to position at or near the top of the rotation looks all the more like a priority, given that context.

Market Notes: Orioles, Lynn, Dickey, Braves

By Jeff Todd | February 7, 2018 at 10:01am CDT

The Orioles have recently begun talks with free agent righty Lance Lynn, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link), though the report also suggests that there’s no particular momentum toward an agreement. It’s still anyone’s guess how the Baltimore rotation will be filled out. Despite entering the winter with three open starting jobs, the O’s only 40-man rotation addition to this point is Michael Kelly, a minor-league free agent who has yet to appear in the majors. With Lynn’s own market still largely undeveloped, it’s not surprising to hear of this link, though the question remains whether the Orioles will really open the pocketbook for a starter.

Of course, other organizations are arguably in a similar position with regard to Lynn. Even taking a pessimistic view of his future, he profiles as a quality back-end starter that would upgrade just about every rotation in baseball. Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch argued recently that the Cardinals ought to be ready to grab Lynn — at least, if he can be had for a cheaper-than-expected contract. A similar sentiment has been batted around by Mets writers. (See, e.g., this post from John Harper of the New York Daily News and this Twitter exchange between MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal.) No doubt an argument for the pursuit of Lynn could also be constructed for quite a few other teams, which is the sort of reasoning that supports at least some reason to believe that he and other mid-level free agents can still find significant contracts.
Veteran knuckler R.A. Dickey has not completely ruled out a return to the hill in 2018, Rosenthal also notes. All indications to date have been that Dickey would likely retire. But it seems there’s still at least an outside possibility he’ll pitch at 43 years of age. The Braves declined a club option over Dickey despite the fact that he turned in a productive 2017 season, throwing 190 innings of 4.26 ERA ball.
David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution breaks down the current Braves thinking at third base. Many have wondered why Atlanta did not beat the offer made by the division-rival Mets for third baseman Todd Frazier, but O’Brien notes that the team would likely have had to dangle quite a bit more money to lure Frazier from his home town to play for an organization with a less experienced roster. Of even greater interest, O’Brien says the Braves front office likely doesn’t have much free cash to work with, making a pursuit of Mike Moustakas unlikely as well. The team’s contract swap with the Dodgers moved payroll forward to the 2018 balance sheet, so the odds are at this point that the club will simply allow its array of young infielders to sink or swim in the majors.

AL Notes: Sox, Nunez, E. Jimenez, Orioles, Royals, Soler

By Connor Byrne | February 4, 2018 at 11:31am CDT

Free agent utilityman Eduardo Nunez “hasn’t lost contact with the Red Sox,” Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald writes. With Dustin Pedroia set to miss the early portion of the year as he recovers from knee surgery, re-signing Nunez would give Boston a clear Opening Day second baseman. However, Nunez would obviously lose playing time upon Pedroia’s return, and the Red Sox are also set at his other positions – third base, shortstop and the corner outfield. All of those factors, not to mention interest from other clubs, could prevent Nunez’s return to the Red Sox. The 30-year-old joined the Sox via trade with the Giants last summer and thrived, hitting a stellar .321/.353/.539 in 173 plate appearances.

Here’s more from the American League:

As their search for starting pitchers continues, the Orioles remain interested in re-signing free agent right-hander Chris Tillman, while fellow righties Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn are still too expensive, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. Kubatko also adds a new name to the mix, 27-year-old righty Drew Hutchison, who’s on Baltimore’s radar. The Orioles are familiar with Hutchison from his run with AL East rival Toronto from 2012-16. Hutchison had his moments across 406 1/3 innings as a Blue Jay, with whom he pitched to a 4.92 ERA/4.23 FIP and posted 8.28 K/9 against 2.94 BB/9. However, he only threw 24 big league frames between Toronto and Pittsburgh in 2016, and he’s now coming off a year spent exclusively in the minors. With the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate last season, Hutchison logged a 3.56 ERA/4.13 FIP with 7.0 K/9 and 3.22 BB/9 over 159 1/3 innings.
When the Royals acquired outfielder Jorge Soler from the Cubs last year for closer Wade Davis, their hope was that the former top prospect would develop into a long-term building block. Soler, 25, still has a chance to do that, but Year 1 with the Royals saw him limp to a .144/.245/.258 showing in 110 PAs and, according to Maria Torres of the Kansas City Star, begin to believe that his major league career was over. Reflecting on 2017, most of which he spent in the minors, Soler told Torres: “I had an awful season. Things went fine in the minor leagues but not in the big leagues. Obviously there were things I was doing wrong. I needed to make adjustments. … I don’t know how it’ll translate to the field but in the cage there’s an incredible change. I’ve never felt this way.” Hoping to avoid a repeat this year, Soler has spent the offseason reshaping himself mentally and physically, having lost 20 pounds, and revamping his swing, as Torres details. Since October, Soler has been in Miami working with Dodgers international scout Mike Tosar, who helped Yonder Alonso break out last season. The results of their sessions have encouraged not only Soler and Tosar, but also members of Royals’ front office. General manager Dayton Moore suggested that Soler will be an everyday player for the Royals this year, adding that “the talent is there” and “we believe in him a great deal.”
White Sox outfielder Eloy Jimenez, one of the game’s best prospects, has only racked up 73 PAs above the Single-A level. Nevertheless, there’s optimism the 21-year-old will make his major league debut in 2018, per Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago. Jimenez told Levine “he’s close to getting to the big leagues,” while GM Rick Hahn noted that “it is not going to shock me if over the summer Eloy forces our hand a bit.” Levine’s piece is worth checking out in full for more quotes on Jimenez from Hahn and White Sox hitting coach Todd Steverson.

East Notes: Marlins, Arroyo, E-Rod, Mets

By Kyle Downing | February 3, 2018 at 9:03am CDT

A 2008 agreement between Miami-Dade county and Jeffrey Loria (and his partners) saw the county fund most of the $515 million government-owned Marlins stadium in Little Havana. In exchange, the county was promised the right to 5 percent of any profits Loria & co. earned if they sold the team within 10 years. Yet Loria’s lawyers have released documents telling the county not to expect any money at all from last year’s $1.2 billion sale of the Marlins, Douglas Hanks of the Miami Herald writes. The reasoning from Loria’s camp is that his accountants claim the sale amounted to a net loss of $141MM. The breakdown they offer begins with a $625MM agreed-to underlying value of the franchise, $280MM in debt, circa $300MM in taxes tied to the sale and a write-off of the $30MM fee paid to financial advisors. Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez says that the city may sue to collect the taxpayers’ fair share of that $1.2 billion. My message is that this community really allowed you to make a lot of money,” he said on Friday. “He should do the right thing. He made profits, and he made big profits. He should share that with the people who allowed him to do that.”

Here are a few other tidbits from around the league’s Eastern teams…

Newly-acquired Rays infielder Christian Arroyo was working out at Tropicana Field on Friday morning, Bill Chastain of MLB.com writes. MLB Pipeline’s 81st overall prospect saw his 2017 season end due to a broken hand, but surgeon Donald Sheridan cleared him for baseball activities after a visit on January 9th. “The hand is great,” Arroyo said. “Right now, it’s about getting back into baseball shape.” The 22-year-old came to Tampa Bay in this winter’s trade that sent Evan Longoria to San Francisco. He hit .192/.244/.304 across 135 plate appearances with the Giants last year in his first taste of big-league action, and figures to be in the Rays’ infield mix for the coming season.
Speaking of young players returning from injury, Red Sox left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez could potentially miss a few starts at the beginning of the season after undergoing right knee patellofemoral ligament reconstruction surgery, Ian Browne of MLB.com writes. “[The injury] happened, like, three times already,” Rodriguez pointed out. “I was just trying to fight to pitch with a knee like that. And I did it. Sometimes there would be ups and downs. Now it’s time to get back to the guy I was before I got the surgery.” The 24-year-old southpaw’s had his share of ups and downs across parts of three seasons with the Red Sox. Last season, he put up 137 1/3 innings for the club while striking out 9.83 batters per nine and posting a 4.19 ERA overall.
Eduardo Nunez and Todd Frazier are currently the Mets’ leading choices in their search for an infielder, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports via Twitter. They’re apparently leery of getting “used” by Frazier (presumably for leverage) if he prefers the Yankees as his ultimate destination. In addition, the Mets are reportedly reluctant to bring back second baseman Neil Walker, and aren’t getting any traction in their efforts to acquire Josh Harrison from the Pirates. Lastly, Rosenthal adds that the team is interested in signing Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn out of free agency if their prices dip low enough.

Twins Interested In Wade Miley

By Connor Byrne | January 20, 2018 at 7:56pm CDT

The Twins and the agents for Yu Darvish, Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Wade Miley, Chris Tillman and Mike Napoli are “maintaining regular dialogue,” according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (on Twitter). Minnesota’s interest in nearly all of those names was already known before Saturday, though this is the first reported connection between the team and Miley.

While the Twins are seeking a front-end starter to complement their only reliable options – Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios – chief baseball officer Derek Falvey revealed this week that they’re also pursuing “value adds” for their rotation. The 31-year-old Miley would qualify as the latter, considering the struggles the left-hander has endured lately.

As a member of the Orioles in 2017, Miley made 32 starts to reach the 30 mark for the fifth straight year, but he averaged fewer than five innings per appearance and finished with 157 1/3 frames – the lowest full-season total of his career. He also notched personal worsts in ERA (5.61), FIP (5.27) and walks per nine (5.32). As a result, the Orioles decided after the season to decline Miley’s $12MM option for 2018 in favor of a $500K buyout, thus sending him to the open market.

Despite his impressive track record of durability, run prevention hasn’t been a strong suit for Miley for the majority of his career, which began in 2011. At his best, Miley combined for an outstanding 3.44 ERA/3.57 FIP across 397 1/3 innings as a Diamondback from 2012-13. Since then, he has pitched to a 4.89 ERA/4.32 FIP over 718 1/3 frames in Arizona, Boston, Seattle and Baltimore.

Miley, to his credit, isn’t that far removed from serving as a competent innings eater with the Red Sox in 2015. And while last season was mostly disastrous, he did manage an 8.12 K/9 – the second-highest figure of his career – along with a quality groundball percentage (50.3). Maintaining those numbers and cutting walks closer to his career mark (3.13 BB/9) would help make Miley a useful back-end option for the Twins or another club in 2018. He’ll also need positive regression in the home run department after last year saw him record a 19.4 percent HR-to-fly ball rate (compared to a lifetime 12.5 percent).

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