Lance Lynn

East Notes: Lynn, Orioles, Rays, Marlins, Red Sox

By Connor Byrne | March 11, 2018 at 9:33am CDT

The Orioles had talks over the winter with then-free agent right-hander Lance Lynn, who finally exited the market Saturday when he agreed to sign with the Twins. Lynn ended up with a one-year, $12MM pact, but he perhaps could have gotten a longer deal in Baltimore. The Orioles may have been willing to give Lynn either three guaranteed years or two with a vesting option, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. Lynn would have been the third (and likely the best) starter to sign with the Orioles in recent weeks. They previously added Andrew Cashner and re-signed Chris Tillman. There remains room for improvement, which general manager Dan Duquette realizes. “We need to find some answers to our pitching staff,” Duquette admitted to Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com as part of a Q&A that’s worth reading in full. While Duquette noted that “it’s getting kind of late in the spring training period for pitchers to get ready,” he’s nonetheless not ruling out adding another starter in free agency or via trade.

Central Notes: Moose, Duffy, Royals, Twins, Lynn, Brewers, Reds

By Connor Byrne | March 10, 2018 at 7:00pm CDT

Before he re-signed with the Royals on Thursday, third baseman Mike Moustakas did not receive any other offers during his lengthy stay on the free agent market, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. The Angels reportedly offered Moustakas a three-year, $45MM contract, but that’s not the case, according to Buster Olney of ESPN (Twitter link). It was an especially difficult trip to free agency for the 29-year-old Moustakas, who will make $5.5MM – $3.2MM less than last season – despite enjoying one of his best campaigns in 2017. Moustakas discussed his time on the market Saturday, telling Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com and other reporters that it was “frustrating.” Nevertheless, “it feels great” to be back with the Royals, he said.

More from KC and the majors’ Central divisions:

The Twins agreed to a one-year contract with right-hander Lance Lynn on Saturday, but they were willing to make a greater commitment to the ex-Cardinal during the winter. Minnesota offered Lynn a tw0-year pact then, per Nightengale (Twitter link). As with Moustakas, it was a shockingly underwhelming trek to free agency for Lynn, whose new accord guarantees him $12MM – far less than anticipated when free agency opened in November.
The Brewers were extremely active in upgrading their outfield during the offseason, as they added the star-caliber twosome of Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. General manager David Stearns arguably didn’t do enough to bolster the team’s starting staff, on the other hand, having only signed the fairly cheap trio of Jhoulys Chacin, Yovani Gallardo and early spring success story Wade Miley. But Stearns seems largely content with the Brewers’ rotation options, he tells Richard Justice of MLB.com. “Because we don’t have a lot of names in our rotation, I think it’s easy to forget that our starting rotation was the strength of our team last year,” Stearns said. “One of the main reasons we got where we got was because of how good our starting rotation was, especially the second half, and all those guys are still here.” Milwaukee’s rotation was indeed among the league’s best in 2017 (eighth in fWAR, 10th in ERA), though that was thanks largely to emergent ace Jimmy Nelson, who will miss the first couple months of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery last September.
There has been “brisk” trade interest in left-hander Danny Duffy, a Royals official tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo expects interest in Duffy to increase, though he writes that Kansas City wants “major prospects” back for the 29-year-old. That’s not surprising from Kansas City’s perspective, as Duffy is arguably its best trade chip. Duffy, whom the Royals extended in 2017, is under contract through 2021 at a reasonable total ($60MM), including $14MM in 2018. He tossed 146 1/3 innings of 3.81 ERA/3.46 FIP ball with 8.0 K/9 against 2.52 BB/9 in 2017.
Reds lefty Joe Mantiply will undergo Tommy John surgery, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com tweets. Mantiply, 27, inked a minor league deal with the Reds in November after spending all of last season with the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate and posting terrific numbers over 70 innings (2.83 ERA, 7.97 K/9, 2.31 BB/9 and a 49.3 percent groundball rate). His only MLB experience to date came during a 2 2/3-inning stint with the Tigers in 2016.

AL Central Notes: Lynn, Twins, Hahn, Jay, Indians

By Steve Adams | March 6, 2018 at 9:00pm CDT

The Twins’ recently reported two-year offer to Lance Lynn was for a total of $20MM, reports Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Lynn’s camp considered that offer a “non-starter,” however, according to Berardino. Minnesota remains open to adding a starter on an affordable and relatively short-term pact, Berardino continues, noting that outside of the team’s $100MM+ offer to Yu Darvish, all of their offseason free-agent dealings have been at one- or two-year terms. He adds that the Twins aren’t aggressively pursuing Alex Cobb, and given Lynn’s apparent unwillingness to consider a two-year term, it seems unlikely that Minnesota will ultimately be a landing spot for any of the top three remaining starters. There are still a few intriguing names on the market who could sign shorter-term deals, including John Lackey and Trevor Cahill, though the Twins haven’t been strongly tied to any of them.

AL Notes: Orioles, Machado, Twins, Rays

By Connor Byrne | March 4, 2018 at 7:58pm CDT

It doesn’t appear Orioles general manager Dan Duquette is planning to initiate extension talks with contract-year shortstop Manny Machado. “I would never say never, but we’re going to be more focused on ’18 than beyond,” Duquette told Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. “I don’t really know what’s going to happen beyond that.” Machado, Duquette, manager Buck Showalter, center fielder Adam Jones and relievers Zach Britton and Brad Brach are all scheduled to become free agents after the season, leading Duquette to admit to Feinsand that 2018 will be the last hurrah for this particular Orioles core. If he stays the GM into 2019, Duquette hasn’t closed the door on spending in free agency next winter, but he also isn’t dismissing the idea of a rebuild. Regarding a potential teardown, Duquette offered: “There is some logic toward doing that, right? You get the premium picks in the Draft and they can become the core players for your next championship club. A lot of this is timing; it’s cyclical.”

Latest On The Top Remaining Free Agent Starters

By Steve Adams | March 2, 2018 at 12:44pm CDT

The Nationals reportedly remain open to adding to their roster before the season begins, and while they’ve been oft-linked to top remaining free agent Jake Arrieta, Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post reports that the Nats “haven’t engaged with Arrieta’s camp recently.” The Nationals, it seems (much like the rest of baseball), would be likelier to jump into the fray if Arrieta’s price drops.

Castillo does note that at least three other clubs have made recent inquiries with Arrieta’s agent, Scott Boras. One of those is likely the Phillies, who are reported to have an ongoing dialogue with Boras regarding Arrieta. However, most reports out of Philadelphia suggest that the Phils are loath to go beyond three years for the former NL Cy Yong winner, who will pitch this season at age 32 and has displayed some signs of decline in recent years — most notably a loss of velocity and worsened K/BB rates.

Alternatives for the Nats, Phillies and other clubs searching for rotation upgrades are still on the market in the form of Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn, who both remain unsigned. Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes, however, that the Phils are even less likely to sign Cobb or Lynn to a long-term deal than they are Arrieta (and again reports that the Phils don’t want to go past three years for Arrieta). Even a contract in the vicinity of Tyler Chatwood’s three-year, $38MM pact with the Cubs could be too rich for the Phillies’ tastes when it comes to Lynn and Cobb, Zolecki writes.

It seems that virtually every club in need of rotation help is awaiting the asking price on the top three starters to drop. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweets that both Cobb and Lynn are still seeking guarantees worth more than $50MM. (It’s worth pointing out that the manner in which that report frames draft compensation is inaccurate; the draft/international penalty for signing any of Arrieta, Cobb or Lynn is not tied to that $50MM figure, but a deal of $50MM or more would improve the compensation for the teams losing those players.)

The Orioles, Brewers, Phillies and Twins all hold varying levels of interest in Cobb and/or Lynn, Bowden notes, but not at the current asking price. The Twins’ level of interest in Lynn doesn’t appear to be especially high at this point, though. While Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN walks back a recent report a bit by tweeting that Minnesota’s offer to Lynn was for more than the $12MM he initially reported, he adds that it was nonetheless well shy of anything his camp considered and that there are no current talks between the two sides.

Market Notes: Upton, Archer, Realmuto, Holland, Lynn

By Jeff Todd | March 2, 2018 at 12:09am CDT

Over at The Athletic, Pedro Moura held a fascinating conversation with Angels slugger Justin Upton. (Subscription link.) There’s plenty of interest in the chat, though Upton’s comments on free agency are of particular interest and relevance. The thrust of his sentiment is that teams seem to be looking to score free-agent value rather than identifying and “courting” players they actively wish to employ. “Teams don’t value players as people anymore,” says Upton. “They value them as a number on a sheet of paper.”

Of course, Upton forewent a chance at returning to the open market by agreeing to a deal with an organization he was comfortable with. Here’s the latest on the unusually high number of quality free agents still not in camp and other market notes:

The likelihood remains that the Rays will enter the season with Chris Archer on the staff, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports among other notes. That’s due in no small part to the team’s lofty asking price; one rival executive suggests that the Tampa Bay front office “wanted our whole farm system” to move Archer. The club has given that impression publicly, too. Senior VP of baseball ops Chaim Bloom reiterated that the expectation is to hang onto Archer and others in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). He added that the internal expectation is that it will begin to reap the rewards of an effort over recent years to bolster the farm depth while still trying to compete at the MLB level.
It has remained interesting to consider whether the Nationals might pry catcher J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins. But there isn’t much recent indication of serious talks, and Heyman indicates that’s due to what seems to be a big gulf in the sides’ valuations. Washington won’t give top prospects Victor Robles and Juan Soto, per the report; while the club might part with young infielder Carter Kieboom or outfielder Michael Taylor, it seems Miami was asking for too much additional talent to be included in a package.
The outfield market has certainly delivered some surprises thus far. Heyman says Jarrod Dyson spurned an early two-year, $14MM offer, though a source tells MLBTR that is not accurate. Dyson ultimately signed for $7.5MM with the Diamondbacks. It remains to be seen what’ll happen with players such as Carlos Gonzalez and Jon Jay, each of whom were rated among the fifty best free agents this winter by MLBTR. Heyman says the Indians are still looking at right-handed outfield bats, though it would surely be a surprise for the team to plunk down any meaningful money to make an addition. Perhaps the trade route could still hold some surprises, though that’s pure speculation on my part.
Veteran reliever Greg Holland might have overplayed his hand in spurning the Rockies earlier in the winter. Colorado was willing to give him something approaching the three-year, $51MM deal the team ultimately inked with Wade Davis, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests in an appearance on the podcast of Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. It’s premature, perhaps, to declare that Holland won’t be able to top that number, though it’s frankly difficult to see where that level of interest might come from — as MLBTR’s Steve Adams has recently explained.
Holland’s list of suitors is in question at the moment. One thing that seems clear, per Heyman, is that the Cubs aren’t planning on making a surprise run at the closer. Rather, Chicago seems largely committed to utilizing Brandon Morrow in the ninth inning and is likely to hold back its remaining payroll reserves for potential mid-season additions.
So, how low could the remaining pitchers go? Presumably there’s a point at which some bidding would occur. But it’s notable that, per ESPN 1500’s Darren Wolfson (podcast link), the Twins expressed interest in Lance Lynn in the range of just $10MM to $12MM over two seasons. Just how that level of interest came about and was expressed isn’t clear. The team has also made some fairly notable recent commitments and may just not have much more payroll flexibility. And it certainly shouldn’t be taken as evidence of Lynn’s current market value. Still, it’s interesting to learn that’s the current extent of Minnesota’s interest.

Phillies Have Had Recent Contact With Lance Lynn

By Steve Adams | March 1, 2018 at 9:58am CDT

March 1: The Phillies have at least “entertained” the possibility of signing two of the remaining starters, Morosi tweets, though he notes that such a scenario is unlikely.

Feb. 28, 11:48pm: The Phillies have had recent contact with Lance Lynn and his agents at Excel Sports, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, though Morosi notes that the two sides aren’t close to an agreement at this time. Philadelphia, of course, has been said to be monitoring the free-agent market for starters for the bulk of the offseason, most prominently being linked to Jake Arrieta.

While the Phils haven’t been oft-connected to Lynn, there’s little surprise to the fact that they’re keeping tabs on his asking price and at least generally monitoring his market. Beyond top starter Aaron Nola, the Phillies have little in the way of rotation certainty, after all. Jerad Eickhoff and Vince Velasquez seem likely to break camp in the rotation, but Eickhoff struggled through a lackluster 2017 season while Velasquez was limited by injuries and ineffective when healthy. Both showed considerably more promise in 2016, though, and the general lack of experience throughout the remainder of the roster should give them spots.

Other options for the Phillies include Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin, Jake Thompson, Ben Lively and Mark Leiter, though none from that bunch turned in an especially encouraging 2017 season — at least at the big league level. Drew Hutchison is easily the team’s most experienced non-roster invitee in camp, and he could conceivably force his way into the mix as well.

Suffice it to say, there’s plenty of room to add an established veteran to the Phils’ starting corps. GM Matt Klentak and president Andy MacPhail have hardly shied away from free-agent spending this offseason, bringing in Carlos Santana (three years, $60MM), Tommy Hunter (two years, $18MM) and Pat Neshek (two years, $16.25MM) in addition to Hutchison’s non-guaranteed deal. Lynn would represent a fourth notable multi-year signing, though at this stage in the offseason and with a seemingly tepid market for his services, it’s possible that he could be had at a lower rate than many pundits expected when he rejected a $17.4MM qualifying offer from the Cardinals.

That he rejected said QO, of course, means that the Phillies will lose more than just money by signing him. Bringing Lynn into the organization would require the team to forfeit its second-highest remaining draft pick as well as $500K worth of international bonus allotments. The Phillies already sacrificed their second-round pick by signing Santana, who also rejected a QO, so signing Lynn (or Arrieta or Alex Cobb) would require them to surrender their third-round selection while seeing their league-allotted international bonus pool reduced by another $500K.

The 30-year-old Lynn (31 in May) returned from Tommy John surgery in 2017 to throw 186 1/3 innings of 3.43 ERA ball in 33 starts for the Cardinals. The surface-level numbers are impressive, but Lynn’s 7.4 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9 and 27.2 percent chase rate were all career-worsts. His .244 BABIP was the lowest mark among all qualified big league starters as well, while his 79 percent strand rate was tied for the ninth-highest. His four-seam fastball also sat at just 91.8 mph — down roughly a mile an hour from his peak years. For a pitcher who threw his heater a stunning 81.1 percent of the time in 2017 — 12.4 percent higher than the next pitcher on the list — that’s a troubling trend.

Nationals Still Weighing Additions; Angels, Twins Likely Done

By Jeff Todd | February 28, 2018 at 1:13pm CDT

With Spring Training in full swing and several recent signings taking a few more players off of the free-agent board, much of the offseason picture is finally now in focus. Of course, as MLBTR’s 2017-18 MLB Free Agent Tracker shows, there are still some big names available. Several organizations clearly also have unfinished business, while others may already feel they’ve addressed their needs or maxed out their resources.

Here are some notes on teams’ plans on the day before the calendar flips to March:

The Nationals are still eyeing improvements, according to a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). In particular, the Washington front office “remain[s] engaged” with the top remaining free agent, starter Jake Arrieta. But it seems that he’s not the sole player of interest, as the organization is said to be “monitor[ing]” the market for possibilities. It is worth noting that several other remaining free agents could fit the Nats rather comfortably on paper, potentially including other starters such as Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, top reliever Greg Holland, and catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Of course, there’s no real indication whether any of those players are presently seen as options within the Nationals organization.
Quite the opposite impression is being given by the Angels, as Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group tweets. GM Billy Eppler says that the organization is “not looking to pursue anything” else after a busy winter, though he does note that he’s “open-minded to things that come around.” That certainly sounds more like a willingness to entertain bargain-rate signings than any kind of interest in pushing for another significant addition. The Halos could clearly stand to improve their pitching, though it also may be that the front office prefers to allow existing options to rise or fall before addressing any needs at the trade deadline. At present, the Angels seem to have around $25MM in payroll space before bumping against the luxury line, though the organization is surely also loath to add too much to the future balance sheets.
It seems the Twins also feel their roster-building work is done, with chief baseball officer Derek Falvey telling reporters including Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (Twitter link) that there’s a “high likelihood” the team has already compiled its Opening Day unit. Minnesota did make quite a few acquisitions over the winter, including recent moves for Jake Odorizzi and Logan Morrison that added fairly significant salary commitments for the 2018 season. Some have wondered whether another rotation piece would make sense, but that doesn’t seem to be in the plans at present. Minnesota is slated to open with a club-record $116MM+ payroll, though the organization had already been in nine figures to open each of the past three years.

Quick Hits: FA Starters, Mikolas, Cubs, MLBPA Camp, Ethier

By Connor Byrne | February 25, 2018 at 4:59pm CDT

Yankees manager Aaron Boone suggested Sunday that they won’t sign either Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb, yet the team has “maintained contact with Lynn throughout the offseason,” Jon Morosi of MLB.com writes. The Yankees are monitoring the top available starters in general, according to Morosi, who hears that the Brewers, Phillies, Rangers, Orioles and Nationals are doing the same. The Angels, meanwhile, are open to signing the best free agent reliever, Greg Holland, if the price is right, per Morosi. The Halos’ bullpen has seemingly taken a step back since last year ended, having lost Yusmeiro Petit and Bud Norris to free agency and added only Jim Johnson. While Holland would help make up for those exits, he’s presumably not going to sign for cheap, and inking the qualifying offer recipient would cost the Angels their second-highest draft pick this year and $500K in international spending room.

Aaron Boone: Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb “Aren’t Really In Play” For Yankees

By Connor Byrne | February 25, 2018 at 9:36am CDT

During their quest to acquire starting pitching in recent months, the Yankees have been connected to a litany of potential trade and free agent targets. The list includes right-handers Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, who rank as two of the best free agents remaining in this year’s class. It doesn’t appear either will end up with the Yankees, though, if we’re to believe manager Aaron Boone.

“At this point I don’t see those guys as realistic options,” Boone said Sunday (via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). “It’s my understanding that those guys aren’t really in play for us.”

With the Yankees poised to stay under the $197MM luxury tax threshold and having anywhere from $10MM to $15MM left to spend, Lynn or Cobb would likely be a tight fit for the club’s budget (MLBTR predicted $14MM per annum for Lynn and $12MM a year for Cobb at the outset of the offseason). Although things haven’t gone according to plan for either pitcher since the market opened, they still seem likely to reel in contracts worth somewhere in the $10MM to 15MM-per-year vicinity. Further, because Lynn and Cobb rejected qualifying offers at the start of the offseason, signing either would cost the Yankees two 2018 draft picks (their second- and fifth-highest selections) and $1MM in international bonus pool space.

Even if they’re truly not in the mix for Lynn or Cobb, the Yankees still have the financial wiggle room to make some sort of move(s) – particularly after addressing third base this week with the acquisition of the inexpensive Brandon Drury. However, general manager Brian Cashman may not feel any urgency to upgrade over the Yankees’ current starting five.

New York’s on track to begin the year with Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery, the same rotation that helped the club to 91 regular-season wins and a berth in the ALCS in 2017. There are some question marks with each – arguably more in terms of workload and/or durability than performance – but if the quintet doesn’t deliver as hoped during the season, the Yankees could bolster their rotation via trade. That’s exactly what they did last year when they picked up Gray from Oakland in July.

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