Lucas Duda

Last offseason featured a particularly deep free agent first base crop. Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss, Steve Pearce and Eric Thames ultimately earned a combined $146MM in guarantees. The 2018 offseason is set to feature yet another deep collection of first base talent, with eight free agents at the position who provided at least 0.8 fWAR to their 2017 teams (note: this list assumes that Adam Lind’s $5MM mutual option will not be exercised). Below is a list of these players sorted by 2017 fWAR, with their respective 2018 season ages indicated in parentheses.

1. Eric Hosmer (28) – 4.1
2. Logan Morrison (30) – 3.3
3. Carlos Santana (32) – 3.0
4. Yonder Alonso (31) – 2.4
5. Lucas Duda (31) – 1.1
6. Adam Lind (34) – 0.9
7. Mitch Moreland (32) – 0.9
8. Mark Reynolds (34) – 0.8

But while WAR is a great measure of a player’s overall value, it doesn’t necessarily paint a picture of his unique individual skill set. Each of these first basemen have their own individual strengths and weaknesses, so I’ve decided to take a close look at exactly what these players offer to prospective teams. All stats are from the 2017 season.

Power

Isolated Power (ISO):

1. Duda – .279
2. Morrison – .270
3. Alonso – .235
4. Reynolds – .219
5. Lind – .210
6. Moreland – .197
7. Santana – .196
8. Hosmer – .179

Extra Base Hits Per Plate Appearance (Multiplied by 100):

1. Duda – 11.81
2. Morrison – 10.14
3. Moreland – 9.72
4. Alonso – 9.60
5. Santana – 9.45
6. Lind – 9.30
7. Reynolds – 8.94
8. Hosmer – 8.49

Duda and Morrison are the clear leading candidates in the power department, with Hosmer showing a weakness in that department relative to the competition. It’s worth noting that Alonso’s power numbers are propped up by a monster first half; he cooled off significantly after a midseason trade to the Mariners. Also worth mentioning is the fact that Reynolds played half his games at hitter-friendly Coors Field last season. A move to any other ballpark could negatively impact his power numbers. Though Santana had a down year in the power department, his larger body of work suggests he might hit for more extra bases in 2018.

Plate Discipline

Strikeout Rate (K%):

1. Santana – 14.1%
2. Hosmer – 15.5%
3. Lind – 15.6%
4. Moreland – 20.8%
5. Alonso – 22.6%
6. Morrison – 24.8%
7. Duda – 27.5%
8. Reynolds – 29.5%

Walk Rate (BB%):

1. Morrison – 13.5%
2. Santana – 13.2%
3. Alonso – 13.1%
4. Duda – 12.2%
5. Reynolds – 11.6%
6. Moreland – 9.9%
7. Hosmer – 9.8%
8. Lind – 9.3%

Chase Rate on Pitches Outside the Strike Zone (O-Swing %):

1. Santana – 21.4%
2. Reynolds – 26.1%
3. Duda – 26.8%
4. Morrison – 27.7%
5. Alonso – 27.7%
6. Hosmer – 30.0%
7. Moreland – 30.2%
8. Lind – 32.6%

Santana is by far and away the leading candidate in the plate discipline department, ranking first or second in all three of the above categories. Reynolds and Moreland could probably be considered to have the worst plate discipline of the group, though it’s interesting that nobody outside of Santana appears to distinguish themselves as extremely good or extremely bad relative to the rest of the crop.

Contact Ability

Contact Rate (Contact %):

1. Lind – 83.7%
2. Santana – 82.1%
3. Hosmer – 80.2%
4. Moreland – 75.7%
5. Alonso – 75.6%
6. Duda – 74.9%
7. Morrison – 73.7%
8. Reynolds – 67.6%

Contact rate is really the only stat necessary to measure this skill, and Lind, Santana and Hosmer use it to set themselves apart. Reynolds, on the other hand, is an outlier on the opposite end; it seems he’d probably be more valuable to teams like the Athletics or Rays that rely heavily on the home run ball rather than stringing together consecutive walks and hits.

Quality of Contact

Barrels Per Plate Appearance (Multiplied by 100):

1. Moreland – 8.2
2. Morrison- 7.8
3. Duda – 7.1
4. Alonso – 6.3
5. Lind – 6.3
6. Santana – 5.4
7. Hosmer – 5.2
8. Reynolds – 4.9

Hard Contact Rate (Hard%):

1. Duda – 42.1%
2. Lind – 39.4%
3. Moreland – 38.9%
4. Morrison – 37.4%
5. Alonso – 36.0%
6. Reynolds – 34.5%
7. Santana – 33.0%
8. Hosmer – 29.5%

Average Exit Velocity, MPH (AEV):

1. Lind – 90.6
2. Duda – 90.3
3. Hosmer – 89.6
4. Alonso – 89.2
5. Moreland – 89.1
6. Morrison – 88.6
7. Santana – 88.3
8. Reynolds – 87.1

Lind, Duda and Moreland would appear to have a leg up on their competition as far as quality of contact. Santana and Reynolds, meanwhile, rank near the bottom in all three categories. It’s fascinating to observe that, although Hosmer ranks poorly in hard contact rate and barrels per plate appearance, his average exit velocity reflects a valuable skill that led to the best batting average of the group this past season (.318).

Offensive Versatility

wRC+ vs. Left-Handed Pitching:

1. Morrison – 109
2. Santana – 106
3. Hosmer – 99
4. Reynolds – 87
5. Moreland – 85
6. Lind – 81
7. Alonso – 80
8. Duda – 72

Pull Rate (Pull%):

1. Hosmer – 31.3%
2. Lind – 35.4%
3. Moreland – 37.2%
4. Alonso – 40.8%
5. Reynolds – 44.0%
6. Duda – 46.2%
7. Morrison – 46.5%
8. Santana – 51.2%

Each of this year’s free agent first basemen is a better hitter against right-handed pitching, even the right-handed Reynolds and switch-hitting Santana. The purpose of looking at their wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching is to expose the weaknesses of Lind, Alonso and Duda, all of whom may not be seen as everyday players. In addition, players without the ability to spray the ball about the field are more vulnerable to defensive shifts, limiting their offensive value. Duda is a clear loser in terms of offensive versatility, while Hosmer is a clear winner in that regard. It would seem as though Reynolds and Moreland are neither helped nor hurt by a look into these statistics.

Baserunning

Fangraphs Baserunning Rating (BsR):

1. Hosmer – 1.8
2. Santana – 0.8
3. Morrison – 0.0
4. Lind – [-1.3]
5. Moreland – [-2.4]
6. Alonso – [-2.5]
7. Reynolds – [-2.7]
8. Duda – [-3.9]

Statcast Sprint Speed, Feet Per Second:

1. Hosmer – 27.5
2. Morrison – 26.9
3. Santana – 26.7
4. Moreland – 26.3
5. Lind – 25.9
6. Reynolds – 25.9
7. Duda – 25.7
8. Alonso – 25.3

Hosmer is the best in this category by a notable margin, while Santana provides some positive baserunning value as well. This category also exposes another blatant weakness for Duda. There’s not much else to say about the baserunning value of this group; the above numbers tell a pretty clear story.

Fielding

Ultimate Zone Rating Runs Per 150 Innings (UZR/150):

1. Moreland – 5.8
2. Santana – 4.7
3. Morrison – 2.0
4. Duda – [-0.1]
5. Hosmer – [-0.4]
6. Reynolds – [-1.5]
7. Alonso – [-3.3]
8. Lind – [-16.3]

Defensive Runs Saved (DRS):

1. Santana – 10
2. Moreland – 10
3. Morrison – 1
4. Duda – [-1]
5. Lind – [-2]
6. Reynolds – [-4]
7. Hosmer – [-7]
8. Alonso – [-9]

If we’re to evaluate defense based on 2017 statistics, Santana and Moreland get a huge boost to their value. Duda and Morrison grade out close to average, while the remaining four players would seem to be defensive liabilities. While Hosmer is a former Gold Glove winner, he hasn’t been great over the past couple of seasons, so it’s unlikely he’ll be paid for his past defensive reputation. Perhaps most notably, the defensive rankings absolutely cripple Lind, such to the point that he may be limited to American League suitors.

While it wouldn’t be terribly difficult to rank these players based on their expected earning potential, each of the above skills could factor into their ultimate landing spots. The unique skill sets of each of these free agents will cause their overall value to increase and decrease relative to each team, and it will be well worth tracking where each of these players ends up.