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Keston Hiura Will Not Make Brewers’ Roster

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The Brewers have informed infielder Keston Hiura he will not be on the active roster, general manager Matt Arnold told reporters (including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Since he’s out of minor league option years, Milwaukee will have to trade him or place him on waivers in the next few days.

Arnold also indicated that outfielder Tyler Naquin — who is in camp on a minor league deal — won’t be on the team either (relayed by Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). Naquin will have a chance to opt out of his contract and retest free agency if he doesn’t plan to accept an assignment to Triple-A Nashville.

The tougher call for the Milwaukee front office was to cut bait with Hiura. The ninth overall pick in the 2017 draft, he entered pro ball as one of the game’s top offensive prospects. Hiura flew through the minor leagues and was in the majors within two seasons. He hit the ground running, connecting on 19 home runs with a .303/.368/.570 line in 84 games as a rookie at age 22. That came with a somewhat concerning 30.7% strikeout rate, but it seemed fair to anticipate Hiura making strides from a contact perspective as he gained more experience against big league arms.

Unfortunately for player and team alike, that’s not how things have played out. While he hit 13 more homers in 59 games during the shortened season, his strikeouts jumped to 34.6%. That led to a meager .212/.297/.410 slash. The swing-and-miss concerns continued to mount the following year, as he punched out just under 40% of the time in 61 big league contests. That led Milwaukee to yo-yo between him the majors and Nashville, where Hiura hit for a ton of power and drew plenty of walks but continued striking out at an alarming clip.

It was a similar story in 2022. The UC-Irvine product got into 80 MLB games and drilled 14 homers. His .226/.316/.449 line was 15 percentage points better than last year’s league average offense, as measured by wRC+. Yet it came with a personal-high 41.7% strikeout percentage, the second-highest rate among the 358 hitters with 200+ plate appearances. Any regression in his .355 batting average on balls in play could’ve left him around the Mendoza line with a sub-.300 OBP unless he took a step forward with his bat-to-ball skills. He’d been off to a rough start this spring, striking out in 15 of 32 at-bats while hitting .156/.229/.219.

Unlike in prior years, the Brew Crew didn’t have the luxury of sending Hiura to Nashville to try to figure things out. Without any remaining options, they had to determine whether it was worth carrying him in a bench role. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored a couple weeks ago, the decision was complicated by the presence of another right-handed first baseman, Luke Voit, who’s in camp on a minor league deal. Milwaukee parting ways with Hiura would seem to bode well for Voit’s chances of cracking the roster, though the club hasn’t yet indicated whether he’ll make the team.

The Brewers will take the next few days to evaluate their options with Hiura. It seems likely another team will have some interest in a change of scenery trade. He’s under arbitration control through the 2025 campaign and playing this year on an affordable $2.2MM salary. A win-now team like Milwaukee might not have room on the roster but a club with a less immediate contention window like the Nationals or Rockies could take a look. The Phillies are an immediate contender but just lost Rhys Hoskins to a likely season-ending ACL tear and could look for a righty bat to supplement the first base mix.

If Milwaukee were to place Hiura on waivers, any other team could grab him while assuming the salary. Should he go unclaimed, he’d almost certainly stick with the organization in Nashville. Hiura has between three and five years of service time, which gives him the right to refuse an outright assignment but would require relinquishing his salary to do so.

As for Naquin, he seems likely to explore his options on the market. The left-handed hitter is a career .274/.326/.468 hitter against righty pitching. He’s not a great defender and is best served in a platoon capacity but he could find immediate interest elsewhere. Naquin hit .194/.278/.258 in 12 games this spring.

With Tyrone Taylor set to open the season on the injured list, Milwaukee has a decision to make in right field. Christian Yelich will be in left and Garrett Mitchell seems a virtual lock for center. Right field time could fall to Brian Anderson or utility player Owen Miller but Milwaukee also has a pair of highly-regarded prospects in Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer. Neither has yet played in the majors but both hit well in Triple-A last year. Arnold said that either of Frelick or Wiemer breaking camp is “definitely in play” (via Hogg).

Veterans With Upcoming Opt-Outs On Minor League Deals

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Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association agreed to a new collective bargaining agreement just over a year ago, and one of the provisions in that CBA is uniform opt-out opportunities for Article XX(B) free agents on minor league deals. An Article XX(B) free agent is one with at least six years of service time who finished the previous season on a major league roster or injured list. Any such player who signs a minor league deal more than ten days prior to Opening Day can opt out of that deal at three points if they haven’t been added to the 40-man roster: five days before Opening Day, May 1 and June 1.

This year, Opening Day is March 30, meaning that first opt-out opportunity is coming up this Saturday, March 25. Teams will have to make some decisions between now and then about whether or not to give these players roster spots or let them return to the open market to pursue other opportunities. With many teams dealing with spring injuries, some of these players should be able to find opportunities elsewhere if they can’t find it with their current organization. Their current clubs can prevent them from opting out by giving them a roster spot, but that may involve cutting someone else.

Players who don’t meet this criteria can also negotiate opt-out provisions into their contracts. First baseman Luke Voit has less than six years service time but has an opt-out in his deal with the Brewers, which he recently pushed to this Friday. But the players listed below will have them automatically.

Angels: RHP Chris Devenski

Devenski, 32, had some good seasons with the Astros in 2016 and 2017 but fell off in the two years after. He’s been either hurt or ineffective in the past three campaigns, not reaching 15 innings pitched in any of them. He tossed 14 2/3 frames last year between the Diamondbacks and Phillies with a combined 8.59 ERA. The Halos have a large number of relievers on their roster that can’t be optioned, which doesn’t leave a lot of room for someone like Devenski.

Braves: IF Ehire Adrianza, OF Kevin Pillar and RHP Jesse Chavez

Adrianza, 33, is a light-hitting utility infielder who was with the Nationals last year until the Braves acquired him at the deadline, though injuries limited him to just six games with Atlanta. Pillar, 34, has long been known as a glove-first outfielder. He was drafted by the Blue Jays and worked his way up to the majors when Alex Anthopoulos, now the president of baseball operations in Atlanta, was with the Jays. Pillar got into four games with the Dodgers last year before a shoulder fracture ended his season. Chavez, 39, started last year with the Cubs but was flipped to Atlanta in April for Sean Newcomb. The Braves then sent him to the Angels in the Raisel Iglesias deal but claimed him off waivers a few weeks later. He ended up throwing 69 1/3 innings on the year with a 3.76 ERA.

It’s possible that all three of these guys are on the verge of getting roster spots. The club recently optioned various players on the 40-man, including Vaughn Grissom, Braden Shewmake, Jordan Luplow, Eli White and Nick Anderson. Grissom and Shewmake were in competition for the shortstop job but it seems they will get more seasoning in the minors while Orlando Arcia takes the gig, with Adrianza in backup infield role. Pillar was competing with Luplow and White for a job as a backup outfielder but it seems he may get the nod. The club clearly loves Chavez based on the fact that they acquired him twice last year. The 40-man roster already has a couple of open spots before they’ve even moved Huascar Ynoa and Tyler Matzek to the 60-day injured list. Both of them are going to be out for most or perhaps all of the year due to Tommy John surgery. Atlanta could therefore have four roster spots at their disposal, allowing them to select these three and whichever of Jared Shuster or Dylan Dodd gets the fifth starter job.

Brewers: OF Tyler Naquin

Naquin, 32 next month, is a solid platoon bat from the left side. For his career, he’s hit .274/.326/.468 against righties for a 109 wRC+, compared to a .210/.272/.339 line and 62 wRC+ against southpaws. With Tyrone Taylor set to miss the first month of the season with an elbow injury, the club could use another outfielder. As mentioned above, the Brewers also have Voit in camp on a minor league deal, which makes things a little crowded. Voit could have opted out of his deal last week but agreed to push his decision because he and the club seem happy with each other, but the roster decisions still need to be made.

Opening one spot on the 40-man will be easy, as Justin Wilson is set to miss most of the year recovering from Tommy John surgery and will surely be placed on the 60-day IL shortly. Aaron Ashby could also go to the 60-day as he’s out with a shoulder injury, though the latest reporting indicated that he was targeting a mid-May return, which the club might not want to close off. Beyond the 40-man questions, there’s the fit on the active roster to think about, as adding both Voit and Naquin would likely involve optioning Owen Miller and Brice Turang, or perhaps designating Keston Hiura for assignment. Brewers general manager Matt Arnold recently spoke about some of the “tough decisions” the club has to make.

Dodgers: OF Jason Heyward

Heyward signed an eight-year, $184MM deal with the Cubs prior to the 2016 campaign but never really lived up to expectations. Outside of the shortened 2020 season, he never posted a wRC+ higher than 100, which is league average. Last year, he hit .204/.278/.277 for a wRC+ of 61 in 48 games. He went on the injured list in late June with a knee injury and never returned. While on the IL, the Cubs announced they would be releasing Heyward at season’s end, despite still having one year left on his contract.

The Dodgers signed him to a minor league deal and will be responsible for paying him just the MLB minimum salary for any time spent on the big league roster, with the Cubs on the hook for the majority of his salary. Despite not hitting much in recent years, he’s always gotten good grades for his defense, though those numbers have naturally declined as he’s aged. Manager Dave Roberts has recently suggested Heyward is likely to make the club. They’ll need to open a roster spot but could do so easily by transferring Gavin Lux to the 60-day IL, as he’s expected to miss the entire season with a torn ACL.

Giants: C Roberto Pérez and RHP Joe Ross

Pérez, 34, has long been a well-regarded defensive catcher with a subpar bat. He has a career batting line of .207/.298/.360 but has also racked up 79 Defensive Runs Saved. He only played 21 games for the Pirates last year before hamstring surgery ended his season. The Giants already have two catchers on the roster in Joey Bart and Rule 5 pick Blake Sabol, but the latter can play other positions and has recently been getting some outfield work. Perhaps that allows Pérez to make the club as a more straightforward backup to Bart, which will necessitate a roster move. Luis González is expected to miss the first half of the season due to back surgery and could be move to the 60-day IL to open a spot for Perez.

Ross, 30 in May, had the second Tommy John surgery of his career last June and isn’t set to return for a while. He signed a minor league deal with the Giants in January and presumably intends to stick with the organization as he rehabs.

Mariners: OF Kole Calhoun

Calhoun, 35, has had many strong years at the plate but is coming off a pair of rough ones. In 2021, he made multiple trips to the IL for hamstring issues and only got into 51 games. Last year, he hit .196/.257/.330 with the Rangers, striking out in 32.1% of his plate appearances.

The M’s will likely have Julio Rodríguez, Teoscar Hernández, Jarred Kelenic and AJ Pollock in their outfield mix. Some recent injuries to Taylor Trammell and Dylan Moore perhaps helped Calhoun’s chances of carving out a bench role, but the club also has Cooper Hummel and Sam Haggerty on hand as outfield-capable utility players, and outfield prospect Cade Marlowe is on the 40-man roster.

Marlins: IF Yuli Gurriel and IF José Iglesias

Gurriel, 39 in June, has been an excellent hitter for much of his career but inconsistent of late. He dipped in 2020 but bounced back to winning a batting title in 2021. Another dip followed last year, as he hit .242/.288/.360 for a wRC+ of 85. Iglesias, 33, has long been a light-hitting glove-first shortstop, though his defensive grades have slipped of late. With the Rockies last year, he hit .292/.328/.380 for a wRC+ of 85.

Gurriel seems likely to get a spot based on the way he and the club danced with each other this offseason. They reportedly offered him a $2MM deal at one point but withdrew it after a week went by without a response, later circling back to get this minor league deal done. Iglesias also makes sense as insurance for the club now that Miguel Rojas has been traded to the Dodgers, leaving utility man Joey Wendle as the top option at short. If they want to select both, they’ll need two roster spots. One of them should be easy with Max Meyer set to miss most of the season due to Tommy John surgery and bound for the 60-day IL shortly.

Mets: RHP Tommy Hunter

Hunter, 36, is a 15-year veteran who has thrived as a reliever over the past 10 of those. However, injuries have been an issue recently, as he hasn’t topped 25 innings in a season since 2018. With the Mets last year, he posted a 2.42 ERA in 22 1/3 innings but made multiple trips to the IL due to back tightness.

The Mets’ bullpen suffered a huge blow recently with Edwin Díaz likely done for the season due to knee surgery, as Sam Coonrod and Bryce Montes de Oca also deal with injuries. That could open up a window for someone like Hunter, but the Mets have also said they’d prefer to have some optionable pitchers in the bullpen, which could work against him. If they do want Hunter in the mix, opening a roster spot will be easy with Díaz and José Quintana both destined for the 60-day IL soon.

Nationals: RHP Chad Kuhl, RHP Alex Colomé and LHP Sean Doolittle

Kuhl, 30, had some decent seasons pitching for the Pirates but had an inconsistent season with the Rockies last year. He had a 3.49 ERA through the end of June but then an 8.60 the rest of the way, finishing up at 5.72 combined. Colomé, 34, has been an effective reliever for many years but also found it hard to succeed in Coors. He signed with the Rockies last year and posted a 5.74 ERA on the year. He’s not too far removed from a ridiculous 0.81 ERA in the shortened 2020 season and a 2.80 in 2019.

Kuhl seems to be the favorite to replace Cade Cavalli in the rotation, with the latter set to miss the whole season due to Tommy John surgery. Colomé makes sense for the club given they have few settled options in their bullpen. Opening up two spots should be straightforward since Cavalli and Tanner Rainey are both candidates for the 60-day IL due to Tommy John surgery.

As for Doolittle, he recently spoke about taking it slow in his rehab from last year’s elbow sprain and brace procedure. He isn’t likely to be ready for Opening Day but seems happy with his rehab process and would therefore likely forgo his first opt-out opportunity.

Padres: IF Rougned Odor and RHP Craig Stammen

Odor, 29, has long been a one-dimensional hitter, providing power and little else. With the Orioles last year, he hit 13 home runs but slashed .207/.275/.357 for a wRC+ of 80. He’ll be trying to force his way into a bench role in San Diego. One spot will go to a backup catcher, leaving three spots for Odor, Adam Engel, José Azocar, Brandon Dixon, Matthew Batten, Tim Lopes and David Dahl. The club doesn’t have an obvious candidate for the 60-day IL, which could work against non-roster players like Odor, Lopes and Dahl.

As for Stammen, 39, he recently revealed that he suffered a torn capsule in his right shoulder and strained sub scapula and likely won’t pitch ever again.

Pirates: C Kevin Plawecki

Plawecki, 32, is a career .235/.313/.341 hitter, leading to a wRC+ of 80. That’s bit below average, even for a catcher, but he has good grades for his defense and framing and is considered a strong clubhouse leader. When he was designated by assignment by the Red Sox last year, some players, including current Pirate Rich Hill, spoke publicly about how much they didn’t like Plawecki’s departure. The Rangers added him for the final games of the season even though they weren’t in contention, seemingly valuing those same intangibles.

The Bucs will have Austin Hedges as their primary catcher but seem likely to select Plawecki to be the backup. Hedges is one of only two backstops currently on the 40-man. The other is prospect Endy Rodríguez, who was optioned to Triple-A last week. If Plawecki in indeed added, it’s possible that Jarlín García is headed for the 60-day IL, as he’s been shut down for the next four to five weeks with a nerve injury in his biceps area and won’t be able to return until May at the earliest.

Rangers: C Sandy León, LHP Danny Duffy and RHP Ian Kennedy

León, 34, is generally regarded as a glove-first option behind the plate. Last year, he split his time between the Guardians and Twins, hitting .169/.298/.211. For his career, he’s racked up 34 Defensive Runs Saved and has positive framing numbers from FanGraphs.

The Rangers have three catchers on their 40-man roster in Jonah Heim, Mitch Garver and Sam Huff. León might have a better path to playing time elsewhere, as multiple clubs around the league are dealing with injuries to their catching corps. Carson Kelly of the Diamondbacks was recently diagnosed with a forearm fracture, leaving them with youngsters Gabriel Moreno and José Herrera as their top two. The Athletics only have two catchers on their roster right now and one of them, Manny Piña, will open the season on the injured list.

Duffy, 34, spent years as an effective starter for the Royals, currently sporting a 3.95 career ERA in 234 games. However, he hasn’t pitched July of 2021, when a flexor strain in his forearm sent him to the IL. The Dodgers acquired him from the Royals, hoping for a return to health in the second half, but he suffered a setback. He then underwent surgery but the Dodgers took a chance on him again, signing him to a $3MM deal with a club option for 2023 and hoping for a return late in 2022. He never made it back to the mound and the Dodgers declined his option at season’s end. General manager Chris Young listed Duffy as a closer candidate in January, but he’s yet to appear in a game this spring.

Kennedy, 38, had an effective half season of relief with the Rangers in 2021, posting a 2.51 ERA before getting flipped to the Phillies. He had a 4.13 ERA after the deal and then slumped to a 5.36 mark with the Diamondbacks last year. The club doesn’t currently have an obvious candidate to put on the 60-day IL, which could work against Kennedy’s chances of cracking the roster.

Rays: IF/OF Charlie Culberson and OF Ben Gamel

Culberson, 34 next month, is a veteran journeyman who brings much defensive versatility to the table. He’s played every position except catcher and center field in his career. With the Rangers last year, he hit .252/.283/.357 for a wRC+ of 81.

Gamel, 31 in May, was with the Pirates last year and hit .232/.324/.369 for a wRC+ of 97. He’s had modest platoon splits for his career but they were exaggerated last year. The left-handed hitter slashed .252/.342/.409 against righties for a wRC+ of 112 but just .175/.273/.258 against southpaws for a wRC+ of 56.

The Rays have a tight roster and spent most of the winter making cuts from it, which could make it tough for either of these players to make it. But if either played is deemed worthy, Shane Baz is destined for the 60-day IL soon due to his Tommy John rehab, making it easy to open a spot for someone.

Reds: OF Chad Pinder, RHP Chase Anderson and RHP Hunter Strickland

Pinder, 31 next week, has spent his entire career with the Athletics until reaching free agency this winter. He’s a super utility guy, able to play anywhere on the field but catcher. He’s didn’t have his best season last year, walking just 3.7% of the time and striking out at a 31.1% clip, but his career batting line is a serviceable .242/.294/.417 for a wRC+ of 96.

Anderson, 35, had some good years on his track record but hasn’t been able to post an ERA under 6.00 since 2019. He got into nine games for the Reds last year with a 6.38 ERA. He was recently transferred from minor league camp to major league camp, suggesting he has a legitimate chance at earning a job.

Strickland, 34, had some good years with the Giants but has gone into journeyman mode recently. He made 66 appearances with the Reds last year, finishing with a 4.91 ERA while walking 11.6% of batters faced.

The Reds should be able to open a roster spot by transferring Justin Dunn to the 60-day IL, as he’s going to be out for a few months with a shoulder issue.

Rockies: IF Mike Moustakas

Moustakas, 34, had many good years with the Royals and Brewers but his four-year deal with the Reds didn’t go very well. He was fine in the shortened 2020 season but largely injured and ineffective for the past two years. He got into 78 contests last year but hit just .214/.295/.345.

Moving his home to Coors Field could give him a boost if he’s healthy. The Rockies could use help at third base after second baseman Brendan Rodgers suffered a potentially season-ending injury. The club’s plan is to move Ryan McMahon from third to second, freeing up the hot corner for someone like Moustakas.

Opening up a spot should be straightforward, with Rodgers and Sean Bouchard both set to miss extensive time and easy calls to be placed on the 60-day IL.

Royals: OF Jackie Bradley Jr. and IF Matt Duffy

Bradley, 33 next month, has long been an excellent defender with an okay bat, but his offense has been awful for the past two seasons. Last year, splitting his time between the Red Sox and Blue Jays, he hit .203/.255/.311 for a wRC+ of 56.

Duffy, 32, is a versatile utility player who can cover any infield position and has some limited corner outfield experience. He’s not coming off a great year at the plate, as he hit .250/.308/.311 with the Angels for a wRC+ of 78, but he’s had better results in the past.

The Royals optioned a few notable position players earlier today, potentially open the door for these two and Franmil Reyes to make the Opening Day squad. They can open up one 40-man roster spot by moving Jake Brentz to the 60-day IL, as he’ll be rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but finding two more spots will require alternative solutions.

Tigers: IF César Hernández and RHP Trevor Rosenthal

Hernández, 33 in May, is primarily a second baseman who is coming off a bizarre power surge and then a blackout. He had never hit more than 15 home runs in a season until he hit 21 in 2021, but then he had just a single homer last year. His final batting line with the Nats last year was .248/.311/.318, wRC+ of 79. Assuming Nick Maton is taking the third base job in Detroit, Hernández is competing for a bench spot along with players like Zack Short, Andre Lipcius and Andy Ibañez.

Rosenthal, 33 in May, has occasionally been one of the best relievers on the planet, including his 2020 campaign. He posted a 1.90 ERA over 23 appearances, striking out 41.8% of batters he faced. However, various injuries have prevented him from pitching at all in the past two seasons. He recently spoke about how he may not be ready for Opening Day but is happy with his rehab process with the Tigers. It’s possible he forgoes his opt out in order to continue his work with the training staff.

The club doesn’t have an obvious 60-day IL candidate and they might also want to add non-roster invitees like Chasen Shreve or Trey Wingenter, creating a bit of a roster squeeze.

Twins: RHP Aaron Sanchez

Sanchez, 30, had an excellent season back in 2016, posting an ERA of 3.00 over 30 starts with the Blue Jays. Unfortunately, injuries have diminished his workload and results in recent years. He had a 6.60 ERA in 15 appearances for the Nationals and Twins last year.

He twice accepted outright assignments with the Twins last year and then re-signed on a minor league deal in the winter. He doesn’t seem to have a path to a roster spot at the moment but seems to be comfortable with the organization. He’ll soon have a chance to return to the open market but the relationship is good enough for him to stick around.

White Sox: IF Hanser Alberto and OF Billy Hamilton

Alberto, 30, is a light-hitting utility option. He spent last year with the Dodgers, spending time at all four infield positions in addition to some corner outfield work. He hit .244/.258/.365 for a wRC+ of 73. He was signed to bolster Chicago’s uncertain second base position, but that was before they solidified it by adding Elvis Andrus.

Hamilton, 32, has long been one of the game’s best defenders in the outfield and speediest baserunners. However, hit bat has always lagged behind. He got into 37 games between the Marlins and Twins last year but hit .050/.136/.050. His career batting line is .239/.292/.326 for a wRC+ of 66. The club came into spring with a question mark in right field but it seems like prospect Oscar Colás is trending towards taking that job.

Brewers Notes: Burnes, Voit, Hiura, Bullpen

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Brewers ace Corbin Burnes was one of several recent players to speak publicly about the arbitration process, voicing some disappointment last month in some aspects of the team’s approach to the trial. Burnes has now enlisted the Boras Corporation as his new representation moving forward, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter).

Asked directly last month whether his relationship with the team had been damaged at all, Burnes candidly acknowledged that it had been to some extent, and that there was “really no getting around that.” Given his likely price tag on the open market, the former Cy Young winner was already a long-shot extension candidate for the Brewers, and the shift in representation won’t change that perception. The Boras Corporation has a reputation for pushing its players to reach the open market, though there are plenty of notable exceptions in recent years. Xander Bogaerts, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Altuve, Stephen Strasburg and Chris Paddack are all Boras clients who signed multi-year extensions that pushed back their respective paths to free agency.

The Brewers are entering the 2023 season intent on contending for the playoffs and, even after trading Hunter Renfroe and Kolten Wong this offseason, reportedly made clear to other clubs that stars like Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames were unavailable. Their first half will be one to watch closely. If Milwaukee falls out of contention, that trio will figure to all resurface in trade rumblings, given their relative proximity to free agency.

Each of Burnes, Woodruff and Adames is controllable only through the 2024 campaign. (Ditto Eric Lauer, Rowdy Tellez, Matt Bush and Adrian Houser.) Milwaukee probably wouldn’t aggressively shop that group, but the Brewers did make a tough call by trading Josh Hader when he had just a season and a half of club control remaining last summer. If nothing else, teams will be trying to pry some of that talent away from Milwaukee if the Brewers indeed drop out of the postseason race before this year’s trade deadline.

Turning to more immediate matters, the Brewers have some key personnel decisions looming in the near future. Last week, I outlined the dilemma they’re facing regarding Keston Hiura and their right-handed-hitting bench depth, and GM Matt Arnold touched on the situation yesterday (link via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Hiura and non-roster invitee Luke Voit are competing for a similar role with the Brewers, and Arnold acknowledged that the club has some “tough decisions” to make. Arnold praised the “tremendous job” Voit has done so far in camp, noting that he’s done “everything he can possibly do” to make the club.

The 32-year-old Voit has indeed impressed, hitting .316/.333/.526 with a pair of homers — albeit with an ugly 11-to-1 K/BB ratio in 39 plate appearances. Hiura is hitting .156/.229/.219 with a 42.9% strikeout rate (15 punchouts in 35 plate appearances). Arnold praised the “electricity” in Hiura’s bat and touted the upside he’s flashed in the past, but the former first-round pick and top prospect is out of minor league options hasn’t performed with much consistency in recent years. Since his outstanding rookie season, Hiura’s strikeout woes have climbed, and he’s lost his grip on a regular spot in the lineup.

Voit had an opt-out clause in his minor league contract last week but agreed to push the date on that back to this Friday. The decision on whether to select him is in many ways linked to Hiura and perhaps to fellow right-handed-hitting bench options like Mike Brosseau and Owen Miller. Without mentioning specific names, Arnold seemingly acknowledged as much, stating: “…a lot of this comes down to not just [Voit], but the people around him and how this all works together is so important.” Both Brosseau and Miller offer more defensive versatility than Voit and Hiura, but both have minor league options remaining as well.

In the bullpen, the Brewers are continuing to narrow the competition. They optioned righties Jake Cousins and Elvis Peguero to Triple-A Nashville yesterday, but manager Craig Counsell made clear that both are squarely in the team’s 2023 plans (link via MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy).

“Jake and Peguero, those guys are going to definitely pitch for us,” Counsell said, adding that the calls could come early in the season if needed. Cousins has been impressive in brief looks over the past two seasons, showing huge ability to miss bats but also some worrying command issues. Peguero, acquired from the Angels in the previously mentioned Renfroe swap, fanned 11 of 35 hitters (31.4%) this spring but was always at risk of being sent out given the number of out-of-options arms the Brewers are currently rostering.

None of Houser, Joel Payamps, Javy Guerra, Bryse Wilson or Bush can be optioned to the minors. The only optionable members of the bullpen are closer Devin Williams, setup man Peter Strzelecki and southpaw Hoby Milner, but all three (Williams in particular, of course) are generally locked into spots, as are Bush and Houser.

Luke Voit Pushes Back Opt-Out Date

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First-baseman/designated hitter Luke Voit has pushed back the opt-out date on his minor league deal with the Brewers until Friday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. Voit told reporters he likes the fit with Milwaukee, and that the team likes him, but they are trying to maintain maximum 40-man roster flexibility going into the season.

Voit was one of the more high profile players to settle for minor league deals this winter, and it always appeared he had a decent chance to crack the Brewers’ active roster. That he’s agreed to extend the deadline by a week suggests that’s very much still in play, and it may come down to straight decision between Voit and Keston Hiura as to who makes the roster for Opening Day.

With left-handed hitters Rowdy Tellez and Jesse Winker set to occupy a lot of time at the first-base and DH spots, it makes sense for the team to have a right-hander to balance them out, but it may be a stretch for the team to carry both Voit and Hiura, given they’re both defensively-limited right-handed hitters. Of course, they could, in theory, carry both players, but it may leave the bench a little too limited in versatility.

Voit, 32, hit 22 home runs on the way to a .226/.308/.402 over 568 plate appearances for the Padres and Nationals in 2022. That’s a fair drop from the days of him being one of the better right-handed sluggers around. In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Voit mashed 22 home runs in 56 games and finished ninth in AL MVP voting. That was part of a stretch from 2018-20 where Voit hit .278/.371/.541, largely for the Yankees. Things dropped off in 2021, as injuries restricted Voit to just 68 games that year, before the Yankees flipped him to the Padres ahead of the 2022 season.

While it’s unwise to glean too much from spring training numbers, Voit has hit .357/.379/.643 with two home runs so far, so is certainly doing everything he can to make an impression with the Brewers.

The Brewers’ Keston Hiura Dilemma

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Not long ago, the future looked bright for Keston Hiura and the Brewers. The former No. 9 overall draft pick (2017) had been a universally lauded top-25 prospect in the sport due to a high-probability hit tool that overshadowed concerns about his glovework. He breezed through the minors, torching opponents in Rookie ball, Class-A, High-A, Double-A and Triple-A before reaching the Majors in 2019 and erupting with a .303/.368/.570 batting line and 19 home runs in just 348 plate appearances at 22 years of age.

Hiura’s long-term position was something of an open question due to an elbow injury that required surgery in college and left questions about his arm strength even at second base. However, his bat was so advanced and his professional track record was so strong that it didn’t seem to matter much. That rookie production and his minor league track record suggested a player whose offensive profile would fit at any position on the diamond.

Granted, Hiura’s 30.7% strikeout rate as a rookie was a red flag, but strikeouts weren’t an issue at all until he reached Triple-A and the big leagues. There was reason to believe that with more experience, he could pare back on the swing-and-miss in his game. Further, given the 91.4 mph average exit velocity and 48.1% hard-hit rate he boasted that season, the impact when he did make contact was substantial. Even with a .402 BABIP pointing to some regression in the batting average department, Hiura looked the part of a slugger who could turn in an average or better batting average with plenty of power.

That now feels like a distant memory. In the three seasons since that time, Hiura hasn’t improved upon his strikeouts but rather seen the problem worsen. He fanned at a 34.6% clip in his sophomore season while posting a disappointing .212/.297/.410 line. Optimists could perhaps chalk that up to a relatively small sample (59 games) and the strangeness of the Covid-shortened 2020 season, but Hiura hit just .168/.256/.301 with an even worse 39.1% strikeout rate in 2021. His bottom-line results were better in 2022 — .226/.316/.449, 14 homers in 266 plate appearances — but Hiura punched out at a career-worst 41.7% rate last year.

Along the way, defensive metrics have regularly panned his abilities in the field. Defensive Runs Saved (-16), Ultimate Zone Rating (-14.1) and Outs Above Average (-12) all offer resoundingly negative reviews of his 1204 career innings at second base. Those metrics grade him as an average defender in 603 innings at first base. He’s also logged 40 innings in left field, but those days are likely behind him, given the number of interesting outfield prospects on the horizon in Milwaukee. Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer could all join Christian Yelich and the currently injured Tyrone Taylor in the 2023 outfield (as could third baseman/outfielder Brian Anderson). Uber-prospect Jackson Chourio is also rapidly approaching the Majors.

With Hiura’s struggles at second base and both Brice Turang and Luis Urias presenting options at the position, he’s unlikely to spend much more time there. A move to third base seems out of the question, given concerns about his arm strength. Both Urias and Anderson are more seasoned options at the hot corner anyhow. At first base, Hiura’s right-handed bat would seem like a natural pairing with lefty-swinging Rowdy Tellez … except for the fact that Hiura has pronounced reverse splits in his big league career. He’s batted .253/.332/.508 against righties but just .201/.283/.323 against lefties. Even that stout production against righties comes with a 34.5% punchout rate and .342 BABIP, suggesting regression could be in order.

As things stand, Hiura looks like a right-handed bench bat who’ll primarily work at first base and designated hitter, perhaps with very occasional appearances at second base and in left field. It’s a limited role to begin with, and it’s one that’s further complicated by a dismal showing this spring. Obviously, spring results don’t carry much weight, but hitting .174/.269/.217 with nine strikeouts in 26 plate appearances (34.6%) on the heels of a difficult three-year stretch in the big leagues doesn’t inspire much confidence in a rebound.

Furthermore, the Brewers have multiple right-handed first base options in camp who are simply outproducing Hiura this spring. Again, we’re dealing with the smallest of samples, so it’s all to be taken with a grain of salt, but each of Mike Brosseau, Owen Miller and non-roster invitee Luke Voit have posted better numbers thus far.

Brosseau hit .255/.344/.418 last season — comparable overall production to that of Hiura. He’s having a monster spring showing and can play first base, second base, third base and the outfield corners. Unlike Hiura, he’s a right-handed bat who has more traditional platoon splits: .276/.338/.485 versus lefties (127 wRC+), .207/.295/.356 versus righties (84 wRC+).

Miller, acquired from Cleveland over the winter, had a big start with the Guardians in 2022 before wilting and finishing out the year with a .243/.301/.351 showing. Hiura’s 115 wRC+ from last season handily tops Miller’s mark of 85, but Miller’s 19.8% strikeout rate is less than half that of Hiura’s 41.7%. Miller is more capable at second base and has even been working out in center field this spring.

Voit was also outproduced by Hiura at the big league level last year, but his 31.5% punchout rate — while still unsightly — still clocked in 10 percentage points lower. Voit has the bigger track record of MLB success, having led the Majors with a 22-homer showing back in 2020. Injuries have sapped his production since 2021.

Perhaps the biggest thing working in Hiura’s favor is that he’s out of minor league options. The Brewers can’t send him down without first exposing him to waivers. It’s possible that the $2.2MM salary to which he agreed when avoiding arbitration over the winter might allow him to pass through waivers unclaimed, but Milwaukee may not want to risk waiving a former top-10 pick and top-25 prospect only to watch him break out elsewhere. Brosseau and Miller both have a pair of minor league options remaining. Voit isn’t on the 40-man roster after signing a minor league deal, although he’ll reportedly have the chance to opt out of his deal tomorrow if he’s not added to the roster.

To Hiura’s credit, he’s a career .299/.400/.600 hitter in 508 Triple-A plate appearances. Even last year while striking out a nearly 42% clip, he averaged a whopping 91.7 mph off the bat and put 45.2% of the balls he hit into play at 95 mph or better. The quality of his contact is elite. The frequency of contact is among the worst in MLB. Hiura’s strikeout rate was the worst of the 317 batters who had at least 250 plate appearances. His 62.3% overall contact rate and 71.2% contact rate on pitches within the strike zone both ranked third-worst among that same group.

It all presents the Brewers with a quandary. They have at least three right-handed-hitting alternatives in camp who are capable of filling that first base/designated hitter spot. Brosseau has more defensive versatility, comparable recent production and is a more natural complement to lefties like Tellez and DH candidate Jesse Winker. Voit has similar power upside, although he’s limited to first base/DH and is two years removed from being a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat. Miller doesn’t have the same offensive upside but might have the most defensive versatility and definitely has the best bat-to-ball skills of this bunch.

Milwaukee has several alternatives to Hiura, whose trade value is minimal at this juncture in his career. There’s understandable risk in parting ways with him and allowing for the possibility of another club claiming him on waivers. But, at the same time, hanging onto him leaves the Brewers with limited roster flexibility while simply hoping for him to finally hone his approach at the plate after years of being unable to do so. And since he can’t be optioned to Triple-A, he’ll likely be left to do so in sparse playing opportunities since he currently projects as a bench piece in the event that he does crack the Opening Day roster.

It’s a tough spot for the Brewers to find themselves, and there’s likely no solution that’ll make them feel truly comfortable. Opening Day is just over two weeks away, however, so one way or another this will culminate in the team making a difficult choice.

Brewers Notes: Voit, Sanchez, Miley

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Luke Voit has been a member of the Brewers organization for just a few weeks. The former home run leader signed a minor league deal a couple weeks ago, getting an opportunity to audition for a roster spot early in Spring Training.

The Brewers will have to make that call relatively early into exhibition play. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Voit would be able to opt out of the deal next Thursday if he’s not added to the big league roster. According to Sherman, Voit’s deal would come with a $2MM base salary if he makes the MLB club.

While that’s far from an exorbitant sum, it remains to be seen whether Milwaukee feels there’ll be sufficient at-bats for Voit to warrant a spot. Keston Hiura is on hand as an in-house option with a similar power-oriented skillset from the right side. Hiura has run exorbitant strikeout tallies over the past few years but he’s flashed impact power upside. The former ninth overall pick connected on 14 home runs with a quality .222 ISO (slugging minus batting average) in just 80 games last season.

Voit and Hiura are seemingly jockeying for reps as a right-handed complement to lefty-swinging first base/DH options Rowdy Tellez and Jesse Winker. Both Hiura and Voit have actually fared worse against left-handed pitching than righties over the course of their careers. Tellez and especially Winker have had more traditional splits, however, with both handling righties better over the years. While neither Voit nor Hiura has functioned as a traditional lefty masher, they each offer some righty pop to help balance the order.

Adding some power from that side of the dish was apparently a goal for Milwaukee. To that end, Sherman writes that the Brew Crew had checked in with free agent catcher Gary Sánchez earlier in the offseason. Milwaukee subsequently acquired their new backstop, William Contreras, from the Braves as part of the three-team Sean Murphy trade. That swap landed the Brewers five seasons of control over a player they hope to be the long-term answer behind the dish at the cost of center field prospect Esteury Ruiz, who went to Oakland.

Sánchez still has yet to put pen to paper despite reports of interest from the likes of the Angels and Giants in recent months. He’s one of the top unsigned hitters available. Milwaukee no longer has a need for MLB catching, as the duo of Contreras and Víctor Caratini will handle the load. Milwaukee brought in Payton Henry from the Marlins in a low-profile trade to serve as the #3 option. There’s no indication Sánchez remains on the radar as a result, though he could be of interest to any number of teams if he’s willing to take a minor league deal at this stage of the winter.

A bat-first catcher for most of his time with the Yankees, Sánchez flipped the script to an extent during his lone season in Minnesota last year. He hit 16 homers but with a fairly modest .205/.282/.377 overall showing through 471 trips to the plate. That was among the worst full-season offensive performances of his career but he received roughly average grades for his pitch framing and ball-blocking from Statcast.

While Sánchez’s destination is still to be determined, there are no such questions with starter Wade Miley. The Brewers brought him back on a one-year, $4.5MM guarantee shortly after the calendar flipped to 2023. It’ll be season number 13 for the 36-year-old southpaw, who acknowledged he thought at points this offseason his career might be over.

“I was so unsure at the end of the year for what was next,” Miley told Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. “I wanted to get my shoulder healthy. I did a little program right after the season was over and it didn’t feel good at all. I did it for four weeks and it was awful. That’s when I went into – I wouldn’t call it depressed mode, but I was like ’it’s not worth it.’ At that moment, I was like, ’I think we’re done.’ Me and my wife talked, and I said, ‘I think this might be it.’”

Miley is coming off a season in which shoulder issues kept him to only nine appearances with the Cubs. Fortunately, he says his arm feels good after an offseason of rest and he felt comfortable giving things another go. Miley figures to take a back-end rotation role in Milwaukee, offering some veteran depth behind Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and Eric Lauer. That takes on added importance for the Brew Crew after spring injuries to Aaron Ashby and Jason Alexander have thinned the depth beyond Miley and #6 starter Adrian Houser. As for his long-term outlook, Miley told Nightengale “I guess as long as (teams) keep calling, I’ll keep playing.”

Brewers, Luke Voit Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Brewers have agreed to a minor league contract with free agent first baseman/designated hitter Luke Voit, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (Twitter link). Voit, a client of Excel Sports, will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee.

For two-plus seasons, Voit was an absolute powerhouse in the middle of the Yankees’ lineup, batting a combined .279/.372/.543 with 57 home runs, 31 doubles and an 11.5% walk rate (albeit against a more troublesome 26.3% strikeout rate). That production came over the life of 892 plate appearances and included an MLB-best 22 home runs during the shortened 2020 campaign.

The past two years, however, have been nightmarish for the slugger — in no small part due to health troubles. Voit began the 2021 campaign on the injured last after suffering a torn meniscus in his left knee during spring training. That injury required surgery and kept him out of action into mid-May, but his return proved short lived. Just two weeks after returning to the field, Voit sustained a Grade 2 oblique strain.

While even Grade 1 oblique strains can often lead to month-long absences, Voit was still back on the field less than one month later. This return from the IL, in similar fashion, was brief in nature. Three weeks after being activated, Voit was back on the shelf due to inflammation and discomfort in his surgically repaired left knee. The Yankees shopped and nearly traded Voit at the 2021 trade deadline, but he was back on the active roster from Aug. 8 until Sept. 30 — when pain in that left knee again sent him to the injured list, formally ending his season. He closed out that year with a career-worst .226/.308/.402 batting line.

The Yankees traded Voit to the Padres just before Opening Day 2022, receiving righty Justin Lange in the swap. Voit hit .225/.317/.416 in 344 plate appearances with the Padres before being traded to the Nationals in the Juan Soto blockbuster. With Washington, Voit’s production took a step back, evidenced by a .228/.295/.381 slash in his two months down the stretch. Washington non-tendered him following the season, preferring not to offer him a raise on last year’s $5.45MM salary.

With the Brewers, Voit will look to get back on track in a more hitter-friendly setting than he played in during the 2022 season — if, of course, he makes the club. The Brewers already have Rowdy Tellez at first base, and outfielder Jesse Winker could be in line for DH reps, depending on how the rest of the outfield mix plays out. Christian Yelich is entrenched in left field (and in search of his own rebound), while center field and right field currently look as though they’ll be manned by Garrett Mitchell and Tyrone Taylor.

On the surface, Voit’s right-handed bat looks like a natural pairing for either Tellez or Winker in a platoon capacity, but that’s not necessarily the case. In his career, Voit’s production against left-handed opponents (.236/.329/.439) is inferior to his production against righties (.262/.347/.491). He’d still be an upgrade over either Tellez or Winker against southpaws, but using him primarily against lefties wouldn’t necessarily maximize his skill set.

For Voit to find success in Milwaukee, he’ll first and foremost need to pare back a strikeout rate that has spiraled in the wrong direction since that injury-ruined 2021 season. Over the past two seasons, Voit has fanned in 31.3% of his plate appearances — a far cry from the 26.3% clip at which he punched out during his Yankees peak and an even farther cry from his career-best 23.1% during that standout 2020 campaign. Voit still makes hard contact at a very strong clip (44.6% over the past two seasons, per Statcast) and barrels the ball at an elite rate (15%) — but that ability for loud contact has been undercut by his uptick in whiffing altogether.

If Voit makes the club and is able to return to form, he’d be a multi-year option for the Brewers, as he’s just shy of five years of Major League service time. As such, he’d be controllable one more year via arbitration. That’s putting the cart before the horse, but it’s a nice potential longer-term benefit if he can engineer a rebound with the Brew Crew.

Free Agent Profile: Luke Voit

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The major league leader in home runs in 2020 was Yankee first baseman Luke Voit. He launched 22 homers in that season, shortened by the pandemic to just 60 games. No one else in baseball hit more than 19. He also cut his strikeout rate to 23.1%, just below that year’s league average, after being at 25% or above in his previous three seasons. He finished the year with a batting line of .277/.338/.610 for a wRC+ of 153, indicating he was 53% better than the league average hitter. That number placed him in the top 15 among all qualified hitters that season. He finished ninth in the voting for Most Valuable Player in the American League.

Voit still had four seasons of club control remaining and it seemed like the Yankees had first base figured out for years to come. However, Voit has since entered some choppy waters and has been thrown off course a few times. In 2021, he dealt with knee injuries for much of the year and was only able to play 68 games. He hit .239/.328/.437 when healthy enough to play, producing a wRC+ of 112. That was 12% above league average but a noticeable drop from his monster 2020 showing. His strikeout rate also climbed up to 30.7%. The Yankees acquired Anthony Rizzo at the trade deadline and then re-signed him for 2022, replacing Voit at the cold corner. A few days later, Voit was traded to the Padres.

In 2022, he was largely healthy, making one trip to the injured list in late April for a biceps tendon injury but returning just over two weeks later. However, it didn’t result in better production at the plate. In 82 games for the Friars, Voit launched 13 long balls but struck out in 32% of his appearances. His .225/.317/.416 batting line was above league average but only by 10%. At the deadline, he had the misfortune of getting thrown into the Juan Soto trade at the last minute when Eric Hosmer used his limited no-trade clause to keep himself out of it.

Voit spent the second half with the Nats, the worst team in baseball in 2022, and saw his production dip. He still hit another nine home runs in just 53 games but his walk rate slipped from 11.3% as a Padre to just 7.1% as a Nat. His time with Washington resulted in a .228/.295/.381 line and a wRC+ of 90. Voit was set to go through arbitration for the third of four trips this winter as a Super Two player, but the Nationals non-tendered him instead of paying him an $8.2MM salary, per projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Voit has now been a free agent for about six weeks without much noise surrounding his market. There have been no public reports about any club having interest in signing him. That’s not terribly shocking given his down year, but there are still things he can bring to the table. His Statcast metrics were still strong in 2022, as his barrel rate was in the 94th percentile among qualified hitters, his hard hit rate 73rd, maximum exit velocity 75th and average exit velocity 66th. Though he’s been striking out way too much in the past two seasons, he can still clobber the ball when he does make contact. It’s also possible he could get a boost from the upcoming bans on extreme defensive alignments, as he was one of the most-shifted hitters among the remaining free agents despite being right-handed. Voit actually has reverse splits for his career, with a 110 wRC+ against lefties and a 129 against righties. That could make platoon arrangements difficult but it also means he makes sense to be in a lineup on a regular basis.

Unfortunately, that’s about all he can really offer. He’s certainly not a burner, with his sprint speed in the 6th percentile and just a single stolen base on his career ledger. Defensively, he’s only played first base in the big leagues, apart from a single inning in right field in 2018. All three of Outs Above Average, Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating consider him to have been a below-average defender to this point in his career. He’ll turn 32 in February and is probably unlikely to suddenly turn things around in that department.

There are still some teams that could take a flier on Voit and hope that he looks more like the 2020 version than what he’s shown since. The best candidate would probably be a rebuilding team that would be hoping to turn Voit into a trade candidate on the heels of a resurgence. Since Voit has between four and five years of MLB service time, he could also be controlled for 2024 via arbitration, potentially adding to his appeal if he’s in a good groove. The A’s have Seth Brown at first base but he can also play the outfield. The Marlins are known to be looking for more offense but have the oft-injured Garrett Cooper as their first baseman at the moment. They reportedly pursued players like José Abreu, Justin Turner and Brandon Drury earlier in the offseason but came up short in those attempts. The Tigers will likely give Spencer Torkelson an extended run to show his terrible 2022 was just growing pains, but it would make some sense to have a backup plan in place. The Cubs and Orioles are known to be interested in first base upgrades, having been recently connected to Eric Hosmer.

Though there are plenty of theoretical fits, Voit will also have competition for those jobs. In addition to Hosmer, the free agent market features Trey Mancini, Yuli Gurriel, Brandon Belt, Dominic Smith and others.

Which Remaining Free Agent Hitters Were Shifted The Most In 2022?

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It was announced back in September that Major League Baseball would be implementing some new rules for the 2023 season. One such change will be the limiting of defensive shifts, with teams required to have two infielders on each side of second base and all four on the near side of the outfield grass at the time the pitch is released.

The exact ramifications of these changes will be discovered as the 2023 season progresses, but the hope is that some routine grounders turn into hits instead. Those players who have been shifted the most could stand to reap the most benefit from the new environment. The prototypical example of the hitter that is the most harmed by the shifts has been a plodding and pull-happy left-hander who can be neutralized by having an infielder in deep right field. However, each player is unique and will have been attacked in different ways, so let’s look at the data, with a minimum of 100 plate appearances required to be considered here. Which free agents were shifted the most in 2022? (Quick note that Stephen Vogt has been excluded since he previously announced 2022 would be his last season.)

1.  Rougned Odor – 93.8%
2. Kole Calhoun – 93.4%
3. Zack Collins – 88.9%
4. Brett Phillips – 88%
5. Brandon Belt – 85.2%
6. Mike Ford – 84.6%
7. Jed Lowrie (as a lefty) – 83.5%
8. Robbie Grossman (as a lefty) – 82.6%
9. Michael Perez – 81.8%
10. Mike Moustakas* – 81%
11. Tommy La Stella* – 80.5%
12. Josh VanMeter – 79.7%
13. Luke Voit – 76.9%
14. Colin Moran – 75%
15. Adam Duvall – 71.7%
16. Gary Sánchez – 70.5%
17. Dominic Smith – 70.4%
18. Jackie Bradley Jr. – 64%
19. Jurickson Profar (as a lefty) – 63.8%
20. Didi Gregorius – 60.3%

(* – Moustakas and La Stella technically aren’t free agents right now. However, they were both recently designated for assignment and are likely to be released given their onerous contracts.)

Odor has been quite awful at the plate recently, with his batting average finishing at .207 or below in each of the past four years. However, his batting average on balls in play has been at .244 or below in each of those seasons, well below his earlier career marks and the .290 league average in 2022. Perhaps the shift bans could get him closer to his earlier career number when he hit between .259 and .271.

Belt hit .285/.393/.595 over 2020 and 2021, good enough for a wRC+ of 162 which trailed only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper among all MLB hitters in that time. He was actually shifted more in those two seasons than he was in 2022. Injuries limited him to just 78 games and tepid production this year, but perhaps better health and some more open space on the field could help him return to being one of the best hitters in the league.

As for the rest, some of these guys are role players or aging veterans, but a few of them could be sneaky value pickups in the latter half of the offseason. Like Belt, many of them are coming off disappointing and/or injury-marred years and will be looking to bounce back in 2023. Grossman posted a 118 wRC+ over 2020 and 2021 but just an 82 this year. Voit had a 153 wRC+ in the shortened 2020 season but dipped to 112 and 102 in the past two campaigns. Duvall had a 108 wRC+ over 2019-2021 but an 87 here in 2022. Sánchez recorded a 143 wRC+ in his first two seasons but just a 96 in the following five years, including an 89 in the most recent campaign. Smith posted a huge 150 wRC+ over 2019 and 2020 but has slid to just 82 since. Profar is coming off a decent campaign and is arguably the best free agent still unsigned.

Nationals Planning To Non-Tender Luke Voit, Erick Fedde

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The Nationals are planning to non-tender first baseman Luke Voit and right-hander Erick Fedde, according to Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post.

Voit, 32 in February, has been on quite the roller coaster over the past few years. Drafted and developed by the Cardinals, he went to the Yankees in a deadline deal in 2018 with Giovanny Gallegos and Chasen Shreve going the other way. There was a period where that seemed like a steal for the Yankees, as Voit hit 14 home runs in just 39 games after the deal in 2018. He followed that up with a generally solid 2019 campaign that saw him hit 21 long balls and slash .263/.378/.464 for a wRC+ of 126. In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he somehow hit more home runs than the year prior, getting to 22, the most of anyone in the majors that year.

In 2021, however, he dealt with knee injuries for much of the campaign and only got into 68 contests. The club acquired Anthony Rizzo at the deadline to take over first base duties and then traded Voit to the Padres in the offseason. With San Diego, he posted a serviceable line of .225/.317/.416 for a wRC+ of 110, above league average but below his previous production. As the trade deadline neared, the Friars reportedly agreed to include Eric Hosmer in the trade that was to send Juan Soto and Josh Bell to San Diego. However, Hosmer used his limited no-trade clause to block the deal and the Padres sent Voit to Washington instead. After the deal, he hit .228/.295/.381 for a wRC+ of 90.

Voit initially qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player after 2020, meaning he was set to go through the process for a third time this winter. Because of his tremendous power, he earned a $4.7MM salary in 2021 and $5.25MM in 2022. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a raise to $8.2MM next year, but it appears the Nats aren’t willing to meet that price.

Voit will now become a free agent, joining a first base free agent market topped by names like Jose Abreu, Josh Bell, Trey Mancini and Yuli Gurriel. Given his tremendous power, Voit will surely garner some level of interest. But he’s a one-dimensional contributor, having never been considered a strong defender or a burner on the basepaths.

As for Fedde, 30 in February, he was a first-round draft choice of the club back in 2014. He appeared on Baseball America’s Top 100 list in three straight years beginning in 2015. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to deliver on that hype so far, posting a 5.41 ERA in 454 1/3 innings since debuting in 2017. His 48.9% ground ball rate in that time is fairly strong, but his 17.5% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate are both subpar. He qualified for arbitration the first time a year ago and got a pay bump to $2.15MM. He was projected to get up to $3.6MM for next year but it seems the Nats will move on after he posted a 5.81 ERA here in 2022. He’ll head to the open market and see if another team wants to take a shot on him based on his former prospect pedigree.

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