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Yankees Designate Carlos Carrasco For Assignment

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June 3: The Yankees announced today that Carrasco has been designated for assignment while Cruz has been reinstated from the IL, as expected. Additionally, Luke Weaver landed on the 15-day IL, as was previously reported. Righty Yerry De Los Santos was recalled in a corresponding move. The Yanks also reinstated infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the IL and optioned infielder Jorbit Vivas.

June 2: The Yankees have placed right-hander Carlos Carrasco on outright waivers, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post. Players can be placed on waivers without being designated for assignment, so it seems Carrasco is still on the roster for now. However, Sherman notes that righty Fernando Cruz could be coming off the injured list on Tuesday. The Yankees are off today, so it seems like Carrasco could be the corresponding move for Cruz tomorrow.

The veteran Carrasco was only just added to the Yankee roster yesterday. Their pitching staff had been used fairly heavily in the prior days. Facing the Dodgers this weekend, the Yanks used five pitchers in Friday’s 8-5 loss. Then on Saturday, they got creamed 18-2. Starter Will Warren only lasted an inning and a third in that game, forcing the Yankees to use seven other pitchers to get through the rest of the game. One of those was utility player Pablo Reyes but the larger point is that the bullpen got pushed pretty hard.

Carrasco was added to give the club a fresh arm just in case Sunday’s game was another nightmare but it thankfully went far smoother. Ryan Yarbrough started and gave the club six good innings in a game the club eventually won 7-3. Jonathan Loáisiga tossed the seventh and Devin Williams the eighth. Luke Weaver was going to toss the ninth but was held back due to some hamstring discomfort. Tim Hill came in instead and got the final three outs.

That seemingly puts Carrasco in the unfortunate position of losing his roster spot without getting into a game. He was with the Yankees earlier this year and logged 32 innings in a swing role but had a 5.91 earned run average in that time. He got bumped off the roster and cleared waivers. He accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and made two starts there. The first outing was fine but the second was rough, as he allowed five earned runs without making it out of the second inning.

It seems unlikely that Carrasco will be claimed. He just cleared less than a month ago and hasn’t been in great form since. However, it’s also theoretically possible that there’s a team which has been snakebit by injuries of late and is more willing to take a chance on Carrasco now than they were just a few weeks ago.

If he does go unclaimed and the Yankees outright him off the roster, he has more than enough service time to elect free agency. However, the last time he cleared, he accepted and reported to the RailRiders, so perhaps he would do so again.

Photo courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images

Yankees Exercise Club Option On Luke Weaver

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The Yankees announced that they have exercised their club option on right-hander Luke Weaver for the 2025 season. He’ll make a $2.5MM salary in the upcoming campaign.

The decision is not surprising at all. The Yankees showed a lot of faith in Weaver and it paid off in a big way. Though he was once a first-round pick and top prospect, his initial career success led into a real rough patch.

Weaver showed some promise as a starter at the start of his career but posted a 5.95 earned run average over the 2020-2023 period. He was designated for assignment by the Mariners in September of 2023 and landed with the Yankees, making three appearances for the Yanks as they ran out the clock on that season.

They must have seen something they liked in that time, as they re-signed him in January, a one-year deal that included a $2MM salary in 2024, a club option for 2025, as well as incentives and escalators.

The gamble paid out in a huge way, as Weaver just wrapped up an excellent season. He tossed 84 innings out of the Yankee bullpen this year with a 2.89 earned run average. He struck out 31.1% of batters faced while keeping his walk rate to a 7.9% level. He earned 22 holds and took over as closer late in the year, earning four saves. He made another 12 appearances in the postseason with a 1.79 ERA, earning four more saves.

Weaver’s $2.5MM club option came with escalators but they didn’t kick in until 100 innings pitched, presumably allowing him to lock in extra earnings if he eventually returned to the rotation. But since he stayed in relief all year, he wasn’t able to push the value of the option up.

$2.5MM is peanuts for a major league club, especially one like the Yankees that generally runs one of the higher payrolls in the league. For how well Weaver pitched this year, this was one of the most no-brainer decisions of the offseason.

Twins Claim Bubba Thompson

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The Twins claimed outfielder Bubba Thompson off waivers from the Yankees, per an announcement from the Yankees. He’d been designated for assignment last week in order to open space on the roster for right-hander Luke Weaver. The Twins had a pair of open spots on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding move isn’t necessary.

Thompson, 25, is the game’s fastest player by measure of Statcast’s average sprint speed metric (30.4 ft/sec). He’s also one of the sport’s lightest hitters. In 241 career plate appearances at the big league level — all coming with the Rangers, who originally took him in the first round of the 2017 draft — Thompson is a .242/.286/.305 hitter. That modest slash line comes in spite of a hefty .351 average on balls in play and masks (to an extent) a career 29.9% strikeout rate. Thompson’s top-of-the-scale speed is countered by bottom-of-the-scale ratings in terms of average exit velocity (career 84.1 mph) and hard-hit rate (21.9%).

As one might expect for a player with such prodigious wheels, Thompson grades as a sound defender in his limited MLB action. He’s logged 595 innings in the outfield and been credited with a +1 from both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average. The former high school football star has drawn praise for off-the-chart athleticism dating back to his amateur days, and Baseball America has previously credited him as a plus-plus runner and plus defender in center field while also cautioning that he’s a below-average hitter who lacks consistency from at-bat to at-bat.

It hasn’t yet manifested in game settings, but Thompson draws praise for his above-average raw power. He’s never topped 16 home runs in a single season, however, and he’s only reached double-digit home runs twice in his pro career. He hit six home runs in 362 plate appearances in 2023 — all coming in the minors. Thompson is a career .284/.347/.440 hitter in 677 Triple-A plate appearances and a .268/.329/.436 hitter overall in the minors.

Thompson will give the Twins some depth in center field and a strong defensive alternative in the event that perennial injury risk Byron Buxton isn’t able to suit up in the outfield. Knee surgery limited Buxton exclusively to DH work in 2023, though the organization’s hope is that he can return to the outfield in 2024. As it stands, lefties Matt Wallner and Max Kepler are expected to man the corners at Target Field, although Kepler’s name has once again been floated as in trade rumblings throughout the offseason as Minnesota looks to pare back payroll and Kepler enters the final season of his contract.

Thompson still has a pair of minor league option years remaining, so the Twins can freely shuttle him between Triple-A St. Paul and the big league team this coming season — assuming he sticks on the 40-man roster for the remainder of the offseason. If things go well, he can take help to offset the loss of free agent Michael A. Taylor, though Thompson has a long ways to go before proving he has enough bat to stick on a big league roster with any degree of consistency. If the Twins can succeed in coaxing more out of him at the plate, he can be controlled for another six seasons.

Yankees Sign Luke Weaver To Major League Deal

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The Yankees announced they have signed right-hander Luke Weaver to a one-year deal with a club option. Robert Murray of FanSided initially reported the deal, noting that Weaver will make $2MM in 2024 with the potential for the deal to max out at $8.25MM. The deal for the Ballengee Group client is pending a physical. Jon Heyman of The New York Post relays that there are performance bonuses in 2024 while the 2025 option comes with a $2.5MM base salary and escalators based on innings pitched in 2024 that could push it to $6MM.

Luke Weaver | Jake Roth-USA TODAY SportsWeaver, 30, had a nomadic season in 2023, one which he finished with the Yankees. They claimed him off waivers from the Mariners in mid-September and he made three starts for the club down the stretch. He tossed 13 1/3 innings over those outings and had a solid earned run average of 3.38.

That’s obviously a small sample of work and the rest of his season wasn’t nearly as impressive. He signed a $2MM deal with the Reds for the year but posted a 6.87 ERA in 97 innings for that club. He was released in August and signed with the Mariners, logging 13 1/3 innings for them with a 6.08 ERA before heading to the Yanks to finish out the year. Between the three clubs, he talled 123 2/3 frames with a 6.40 ERA, 19.4% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 35.5% ground ball rate.

The righty has shown better form in the past, including a stretch from 2017 to 2019 when he posted a 4.21 ERA in 261 innings between the Cardinals and Diamondbacks, with Weaver joining Andrew Young and Carson Kelly as the return in the Paul Goldschmidt trade. He paired a 23.4% strikeout rate in that time with a 7.6% walk rate, also getting grounders on 43.5% of balls in play. But his ERA jumped to 6.58 in the shortened 2020 season. He recovered somewhat in 2021, getting that down to 4.25, but missed time due to a strained shoulder and elbow inflammation and only made 13 starts.

In 2022, the Diamondbacks moved him to a relief role, which didn’t work out. He finished the year with a 6.56 ERA, split between the Snakes and the Royals, getting flipped at the deadline for Emmanuel Rivera. The Reds took a shot on him and moved him back to a starting role but, as mentioned, that didn’t work out well either.

Overall, he goes into 2024 with a 5.14 ERA which isn’t immediately impressive. He has never really had control problems, however, having never walked more than 8.9% of hitters in any season and currently sporting a 7.4% rate for his career. For reference, the league average in 2023 with 8.6%. Perhaps there’s some bad luck overall in his results, as his .328 batting average on balls in play and 68.4% strand rate are reach on the unfortunate side of average. ERA estimators such as his 4.31 FIP and 4.20 SIERA paint a more flattering picture than his actual ERA. But on the other hand, his strikeouts have ticked down for four straight seasons now.

The Yankees put a sizable dent in their pitching depth with the Juan Soto trade, as Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez were each sent to San Diego. The Yanks are set to have Gerrit Cole ace the ace this year, with Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes each looking to bounce back from injury-related struggles in 2023. Clarke Schmidt should be line for a back end job. The club has also been heavily connected to free agent starters like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Marcus Stroman, as well as trade candidates like Dylan Cease.

Even if they do land another starter in the coming weeks, depth will still be important. Almost no club gets through a season using only its top five projected starters, with each team inevitably needing to turn to starter number six and seven and so on. The Yanks have Clayton Beeter, Luis Gil, Yoendrys Gómez, Cody Poteet and Will Warren around as depth options but Weaver will presumably jump into that mix.

Though his results on the season as a whole were poor in 2023, he finished strong in pinstripes and they must have liked what they saw. He’s also a former first-round pick and top prospect, in addition to having some decent major league results in the past. The $2MM salary isn’t far beyond this year’s $740K major league minimum, but the Yankees are slated to be a third-time competitive balance tax payor, with Roster Resource projecting a $291MM CBT figure at the moment. That puts them above the third tax line and near the fourth and final line of $297MM. Their current level of spending has a 95% and it would be 110% for any spending beyond the top line, so the Yanks will effectively be paying double for Weaver and anyone else they sign from now on.

If Weaver doesn’t have a rotation job to start the season, he will likely find himself in a bullpen job, perhaps as a long reliever. He has over five years of major league service time and cannot be optioned to the minors without his consent. If the Yanks want to remove him from the active roster at any point, they will need to work out a trade or designate him for assignment.

Yankees Notes: Rotation, Kahnle, Bowman, Boone

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While the Yankees won’t be playing in the postseason this fall, each member of the starting staff still has something to pitch for over the final six games of the season. Gerrit Cole likely has one start remaining to bolster his Cy Young case. The six-time All-Star is the clear favorite, boasting the AL lead in innings pitched and ERA, but he could do with one more strong outing to pad his stats. Meanwhile, converted reliever Michael King has one final game to cap off his impressive transformation into a starting pitcher. If he looks like a lock for the rotation in 2024, it should increase his earning power during the arbitration process this winter.

Carlos Rodón hasn’t looked like himself in the first season of a six-year deal with the Yankees, and his last start will give him a chance to right the ship before the year is up. Similarly, Clarke Schmidt, Luke Weaver, and Frankie Montas are all looking to make a strong impression in their final outings.

Schmidt turned heads out of the bullpen in his rookie season but hasn’t looked quite as sharp out of the rotation during his sophomore campaign, especially as the year has gone on. He’ll look to improve on his 5.24 ERA since the All-Star break. Weaver and Montas will both be free agents this offseason, so it stands to reason that each would like to go out on a high note. Weaver pitched well in his second outing for New York on Friday, and he’s trying to turn things around after a disappointing season with the Reds, Mariners, and Yankees. Montas has spent the entire 2023 campaign on the injured list, but the Yankees could give him a chance to return for one appearance before he hits the open market.

In other Yankees notes…

  • The Yankees placed right-hander Tommy Kahnle on the 15-day IL with shoulder inflammation, ending his 2023 season. The oft-injured reliever missed the first two months of the year with biceps tendinitis but pitched well from June to September, posting a 2.66 ERA and 3.68 SIERA in 42 games. He is under contract through 2024, and barring a setback, there is no reason to believe he won’t be back on the mound next spring.
  • To replace Kahnle on the active roster, the Yankees recalled Matt Bowman from Triple-A. This will be the righty’s second stint with the big league team, after a brief call-up earlier this month. Following his selection in the 2012 draft, Bowman spent time with the Mets, Cardinals, and Reds before signing a minor league deal with the Yankees after the 2020 season. He missed the next two years recovering from Tommy John surgery but re-signed with New York this past winter. He has a 3.99 ERA in 49 games at Triple-A this year.
  • With the Yankees officially eliminated from postseason contention and facing their first losing season since 1992, it’s fair to wonder if manager Aaron Boone is on the hot seat. Steve Adams addressed that very issue earlier today, wondering if the Yankees will (and if they should) fire their skipper.

Yankees Claim Luke Weaver From Mariners

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The Yankees have claimed right-hander Luke Weaver off waivers from the Mariners, per announcements from both clubs. Weaver had recently been designated for assignment by the M’s. Lefty Nestor Cortes was transferred to the 60-day injured list in order to open up a spot on the Yankees’ 40-man roster.

Weaver, 30, began the year with the Reds, signing with them in the offseason on a one-year contract worth $2MM. Although he had shown some encouraging signs working as a reliever in 2022, the Reds tried moving him back to a starting role this year, which didn’t work out. He tooks the ball 21 times for the Reds but posted a 6.87 earned run average in 97 innings, getting released in August.

The Mariners decided to take a shot on Weaver, signing him to their roster. That was a no-risk move from a financial perspective, since the Reds remained on the hook for what remained of his salary. He made five appearances for Seattle, four of them out of the bullpen. But he posted an ERA of 6.08 in that small sample and was designated for assignment on the weekend.

Despite his poor results this year, it’s understandable why the Yankees would grab him. The Reds are still on the hook for the bulk of what remains of his contract, meaning that the Yanks will only have to pay the prorated version of the $720K league minimum for any time spent on the roster. That amount will be subtracted from what the Reds pay.

The Yankees have been battling poor health on their pitching staff all year, a problem that has gotten worse of late. Each of Ian Hamilton, Keynan Middleton, Jonathan Loáisiga, Albert Abreu and Luis Severino have landed on the injured list in just the past two weeks, further thinning out a staff that was already fairly snakebit. The club now has a total of 11 pitchers on the injured list.

At this time of year, adding new players is a challenge since the trade deadline has already passed. But by claiming Weaver off waivers, the Yankees get a fresh arm for their banged-up pitching staff at essentially no cost.

Weaver’s career has been up and down but he has shown flashes of potential at times. He posted an ERA of 2.94 in 2019, though injuries limited him to just 12 starts that year and he’s been less effective in subsequent years. Working primarily as a reliever last year didn’t look great on the surface level, with a 6.56 ERA in 35 2/3 innings, though poor luck may have been involved. His batting average on balls in play was .429 while his strand rate was 58.6%, leading to a 2.69 FIP and 3.64 SIERA.

Weaver will be a free agent again at season’s end, but donning the pinstripes will possibly give him a chance to finish the season strong, while the Yankees can use him to help patch together their pitching staff and limp to the end of a lost year.

As for Cortes, he’s been dealing with a rotator cuff strain and manager Aaron Boone admitted last month that he likely wouldn’t be back this year. This move makes it official, as he now won’t be eligible to return until 60 days from his August 8 IL placement, which would push into October. He’ll finish the year with a 4.97 ERA, only able to make 12 starts due to multiple injuries.

Mariners Designate Luke Weaver For Assignment

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The Mariners announced that right-hander Luke Weaver has been designated for assignment.  The move clears a roster spot for Eduard Bazardo, as the M’s have called the righty back up from Triple-A Tacoma.

It could be a brief stint in Seattle for Weaver, who only signed a Major League contract with the club on August 22.  His tenure with the club has consisted of one start and four relief appearances, and Weaver has delivered only a 6.08 ERA over his 13 1/3 innings in a Mariners uniform.  The M’s were hoping that Weaver could eat innings and provide some depth within an overall young rotation that is running into innings-limit problems, yet it seems as though the Mariners are willing to move on from the 30-year-old righty.

Weaver signed a one-year, $2MM free agent deal with the Reds last winter, but his eighth MLB season has been a year to forget.  A strained right flexor tendon suffered during Spring Training delayed Weaver’s 2023 debut until April 20, and he hasn’t really gotten on track since, posting a 6.77 ERA in 110 1/3 combined frames with Cincinnati and Seattle.  Never a big strikeout pitcher over his career, Weaver’s 18.4% strikeout rate is a career low, and batters have been making a lot of hard and quality contact against his offerings this season.  Weaver has allowed 26 homers over his 110 1/3 innings, a huge spike in home run rate compared to Weaver’s past numbers.

While the results haven’t been there, it still seems possible that Weaver will draw some interest on the waiver wire, or could perhaps be signed to a new contract in the event that he clears waivers and is released by Seattle.  Any number of teams could use an extra arm down the stretch, whether it’s a non-contender looking to fill innings or a playoff contender (like the Mariners) in search of depth.

Because Weaver has more than five years of MLB service time, he can reject an outright assignment to Triple-A Tacoma if he clears waivers, and then opt for free agency.  The Reds are still obligated for what’s left of that $2MM salary, as the Mariners only had to pay Weaver a prorated Major League minimum salary during his time on Seattle’s active roster.

Mariners Sign Luke Weaver To Major League Deal, Transfer Emerson Hancock To 60-Day IL

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The Mariners announced a series of roster moves today, reinstating right-hander Bryan Woo from the injured list and signing righty Luke Weaver to a major league deal. To open two active roster spots, they optioned righties Eduard Bazardo and Darren McCaughan. To open a 40-man spot for Weaver, righty Emerson Hancock has been transferred to the 60-day injured list.

It’s a belated birthday present for Weaver, who just turned 30 years old yesterday. He was recently released by the Reds, who had signed him to a one-year, $2MM deal in the offseason. Unfortunately, his 21 starts for Cincinnati resulted in him allowing 6.87 earned runs per nine innings. His 7.6% walk rate was solid but he only struck out 19% of batters faced. Home runs were a particular problem as he allowed 24 balls to sail over the fence in that time, easily a career high for him.

The Mariners were planning to utilize a six-man rotation when Woo returned from the injured list, joining Hancock, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller, but Hancock’s injury threw a wrench in those plans. He landed on the injured list yesterday due to a shoulder strain and it seems the club isn’t expecting him back soon. Today’s transfer makes him officially ineligible to return until the middle of October. His season is now effectively over unless the club goes on a World Series run and he gets healthy enough in the next two months to put himself in position to rejoin the roster. Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports that his recovery will take at least four to six weeks.

The club could simply go with a five-man rotation, though there are reasons why they might still prefer six. Both Miller and Woo are rookies who are pushing towards uncharted territory in terms of innings pitched in a season. Last year was Miller’s first full professional season and he was able to toss 133 2/3 frames. This year, between the majors and minors, he’s up to 117 1/3 already. Woo, meanwhile, tossed 67 2/3 last year and is already up to 99 innings this year between Double-A and the majors. Kirby was a rookie last year and logged 130 major league innings plus another 26 2/3 in the minors, and is at 150 2/3 this year.

Going with a six-man rotation would soften some of the workload concerns and the potential for fatigue down the stretch. Perhaps that is why they have brought Weaver aboard. Though his results haven’t been good this year, a change of venue would likely help him to some degree. Looking at Statcast’s park factors, the Mariners have one of the more pitching-friendly home parks while the Reds are on the other end of the spectrum, especially when it comes to home runs.

It’s also possible that the Mariners are planning to implement Weaver out of the bullpen, a role in which he’s showed some encouraging signs in the past. With the Diamondbacks and Royals last year, he had an ERA of 6.56 overall, but that included one start in which he allowed nine earned runs. As a reliever, he had a 4.78 ERA and may have deserved even better. He had a 21.7% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate, 40.4% ground ball rate and didn’t surrender a home run at all. But a .404 batting average on balls in play and 64.9% strand rate pushed some extra runs across the plate, with his 2.46 FIP suggesting he was perhaps better than his ERA would indicate.

Regardless of his role, it’s a low-risk move for the M’s financially. Since the Reds released Weaver, they remain on the hook for what’s left of his $2MM salary, while the Mariners will only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster. That amount will be subtracted from what the Reds pay.

Reds Release Luke Weaver

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August 18: The Reds have officially released Weaver, the team announced on Friday. He is now a free agent.

August 16: The Reds have designated starting pitcher Luke Weaver for assignment, the team has announced. They have recalled Alan Busenitz from Triple-A Louisville to take his place on the 26-man roster.

The Cardinals selected Weaver in the first round of the 2014 draft, and he spent the first five years of his professional career in the Cardinals organization. Following the 2018 season, he was one of three players sent to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Paul Goldschmidt, famously one of the more lopsided trades in recent memory. In his first three seasons with Arizona, Weaver was an average starting pitcher (4.45 ERA, 4.19 SIERA), but he missed significant time with injuries in 2019 and 2021.

In 2022, the Diamondbacks moved him to the bullpen, where he posted a 3.55 ERA in 11 appearances. He was traded to the Royals at the deadline and continued to pitch out of the ’pen for Kansas City. The Royals non-tendered him after the season rather than paying him an estimated $3MM in arbitration.

As a free agent, Weaver signed a one-year, $2MM contract with the Reds. He missed the first three weeks of the 2023 season nursing a strained elbow flexor and struggled upon his return, posting a 6.87 ERA in 97 innings pitched. His underlying numbers are slightly better (4.78 SIERA, 5.75 xERA), but it’s impossible to deny that the 2023 season has gone poorly for the 29-year-old. He has failed to escape the fifth inning in 12 of his 21 starts, and his strikeout rate has fallen to a career-worst 19%.

The Reds will need to place Weaver on outright waivers within seven days. The right-hander has more than five years of MLB service time, which means that if he clears waivers, he will have the option to reject an outright assignment to the minor leagues without sacrificing any salary remaining on his contract.

Hunter Greene, who has been out since mid-June with hip soreness, is expected to make his return this weekend, when he can take what would have been Weaver’s next turn in the rotation. Still, the Reds will need one additional starting pitcher. They have gotten by with a four-man rotation since August 7, when Lyon Richardson was optioned to Triple-A. However, after an off-day on Thursday, they’ll play 20 games in the next 20 days. Brett Kennedy is expected to make a start in the coming days, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Ben Lively will also be a candidate to join the rotation when he finishes his rehab stint at Triple-A.

The Reds have had tough luck in the rotation this year. Greene and Nick Lodolo have spent significant time on the IL, as have Justin Dunn and Connor Overton, while veterans Weaver and Luis Cessa have struggled. Cincinnati’s starters have a 5.34 ERA on the season and a 6.35 ERA in August, which goes a long way toward explaining why the Reds have a negative run differential despite boasting an offense that has scored the fourth-most runs in the National League. If this team makes the playoffs, it will be thanks to their offense, not their pitching. Still, they’ll need more from their rotation to pull ahead in a tight NL race.

The Reds Should Expand Their Youth Movement Even Further

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The Reds entered the 2023 season with a trio of young starters — Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft — headlining their rotation, as well as a rookie third baseman (Spencer Steer) and a closer entering just his second big league season (Alexis Diaz). None of that quintet had more than a year of Major League service time. Ashcraft and Steer both had less than one full year. The Reds might’ve spent a small amount on veteran free agents this offseason (e.g. Wil Myers, Luke Weaver, Curt Casali, Luke Maile), but one look at the roster left little doubt this was a rebuilding team.

Six weeks into the season, the youth movement has brokered mixed results. Greene and Ashcraft (Sunday’s meltdown notwithstanding) have both looked impressive in the rotation. Diaz is doing his best impression of his older brother, striking out a stunning 51.2% of his opponents through 11 innings. Steer has delivered roughly league-average offense and shown some versatility, beginning to take regular reps at first base with Myers and Joey Votto both on the injured list. Lodolo has been extraordinarily homer-prone, but his strikeout and walk rates are every bit as encouraging as they were during a strong rookie effort in 2022.

Cincinnati fans are getting a glimpse at the hopeful future core for the Reds, but it’s becoming increasingly clear that more youthful reinforcements are — or should be — on the horizon. The Reds have every reason to let Lodolo try to sort through his homer woes at the big league level, but the fourth and fifth spots of the rotation are another story entirely. Those have been occupied by veterans Weaver and the just minutes-ago-DFA’d Luis Cessa for the bulk of the season, and the results rather unsurprisingly haven’t been good.

Weaver has made just three starts to Cessa’s six, and while a 7.88 ERA doesn’t inspire any confidence, Weaver has at least posted a 26% strikeout rate against an 8.2% walk rate. They’re both better than average marks — the strikeout rate in particular. Like Lodolo (and many other Reds hurlers who have the challenge of pitching at Great American Ball Park), Weaver’s home run rate is through the roof (2.81 HR/9). The Reds spent a couple million dollars to sign him as a free agent, and Weaver’s only had three starts. Ugly as they’ve been, he’ll get another few turns, even if the leash is (or should be) short.

Cessa’s spot seemed far more vulnerable. (Hence the bulk of this piece already having been written just prior to his DFA… thanks for prompting some last-minute rewrites, Reds!) In six starts, he allowed an earned run per inning, walked more batters than he struck out, and was moved to the bullpen for his most recent appearance. He didn’t start a single game from 2019-21, making the Reds’ decision to move him into the rotation last year and then to guarantee him a 2023 rotation spot a rather peculiar one.

Cessa posted a pedestrian 4.30 ERA in ten starts last season with an even less-encouraging 5.02 FIP. That might’ve made him a fine sixth or seventh starting option, but the Reds opted to only sign Weaver this offseason and leave the rotation largely unaddressed. Veteran Chase Anderson was re-signed on a minor league deal, but he’s already been traded to the Rays after triggering an opt-out in his contract. Right-hander Ben Lively was re-signed to a minor league deal, and the Reds selected him to the roster today alongside fellow offseason journeyman pickup Kevin Herget.

It’s not clear whether the 31-year-old Lively and 32-year-old Herget are short-term stopgaps or will get an actual look on the roster in the coming weeks, but even before this afternoon’s slate of moves, the crux of this argument has been that the Reds have more interesting options than the veterans they’ve plugged into the fourth and fifth spots of the rotation thus far. The promotions of Lively and Herget don’t change that.

Lefty Brandon Williamson and right-hander Levi Stoudt both came to Cincinnati by way of trade with the Mariners, coming over in the Jesse Winker/Eugenio Suarez and Luis Castillo trades, respectively. Neither has dominated in Triple-A to begin the season, though Stoudt did make his MLB debut in a spot start last month. Williamson, currently sporting an ERA north of 7.00 in 28 1/3 Triple-A frames, has not yet pitched in the big leagues. It’s worth noting that nearly all the damage against him came in one start, where he did not escape the first inning against the Cubs’ top affiliate and was thrashed for eight runs. Stoudt needs to improve upon the poor command he’s shown in Louisville before getting a real look in the big leagues.

The Reds have one particular minor league powerhouse who looks on the cusp of MLB readiness, however: left-hander Andrew Abbott. The 2021 second-round pick has skyrocketed through the minor leagues, reaching Double-A last year as a 23-year-old in his first full professional season and then overpowering both Double-A and Triple-A opponents early in the 2023 season.

Abbott opened the current campaign with 15 2/3 innings in Double-A, allowing just two runs on six hits and three walks with an astonishing 36 strikeouts. That’s not a typo; Abbott fanned a comical 64.3% of his opponents in those three Double-A starts before the Reds rather naturally jumped him to Triple-A. He hasn’t continued on at that deity-like pace at the top minor league level … he’s “merely” posted a 3.00 ERA with a 38.7% strikeout rate in another 15 innings of work. All in all, Abbott has 30 2/3 innings of 2.05 ERA ball with an eye-popping 50.8% strikeout rate to go along with a 7.6% walk rate, 41.5% ground-ball rate and 0.88 HR/9 mark.

The 23-year-old Abbott’s most recent start just happened to fall on Sunday, which would line him up to be fully rested come Saturday, when the Reds’ listed starter is TBD. That had been Cessa’s spot in the rotation, but Cincinnati opted to start Ashcraft on four days’ rest instead of giving Cessa his usual turn. (Ashcraft was blasted for eight runs in 1 2/3 innings.) It’s always possible that they’ll look into alternatives for the time being, preferring to give Abbott more seasoning and hold off on adding him to the 40-man roster just yet. But each of Williamson (May 5), Stoudt (May 6) and Herget (May 4) saw their most recent starts fall on a date that would line them up to pitch between now and Saturday.

If the Reds are indeed going to tap into their farm to make a change, Abbott is not only the best option in terms of 2023 performance — he’s also the starter who’s likeliest to be on full rest and ready to make that start. Even if Cincinnati bypasses him in favor of Lively or Herget this coming weekend, he’s already made the clear case that he’s a better option for the big league rotation than either Weaver or Cessa. And assuming Williamson can continue to shake off the impact of that catastrophic outing against the Cubs’ Iowa club — he rebounded with a quality start in his next appearance — it might not be long before either he or Stoudt stakes a claim to the fifth spot.

Going with a youth-forward rotation obviously has its pitfalls, but the Reds’ lack of offseason activity on the starting pitching front — both in terms of established big league starters and even in terms of veteran depth on minor league deals — clearly set the stage for that to eventually be the case in 2023. It’s not hard to imagine the Reds rolling with five starters who have under two years of big league service by sometime next month, if not sooner. The next step in the process should come this weekend. It’s only six starts, but Abbott looks like one of the organization’s four best rotation options at this point. Today’s moves might have added some fresh arms in Lively and Herget, but plugging either into the rotation would only continue treading water as they were with Cessa.

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