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Max Kepler

Twins Place Max Kepler On Injured List, Select DaShawn Keirsey Jr.

By Steve Adams | September 5, 2024 at 11:13am CDT

The Twins have placed right fielder Max Kepler on the 10-day injured list with patellar tendinitis in his left knee and selected the contract of outfielder DaShawn Keirsey Jr. from Triple-A St. Paul, per a team announcement. Left-hander Kody Funderburk was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Keirsey, who’ll be making his MLB debut when he first gets into a game.

Kepler, 31, came out of the All-Star break on a tear, hitting .316/.357/.468 in 84 plate appearances and boosting his season line to .271/.320/.412 in the process. Coupled with his strong defense in right field, he looked to be on his way to another solid all-around season. He’s since fallen into a dreadful swoon at the plate, however, tallying just one hit in his past 17 plate appearances and batting only .116/.156/.140 in his last 45 turns at the dish. He’s been in and out of the lineup while trying to play through discomfort in his problematic knee, but after sitting out the past four contests, he’ll now head to the injured list and hope some down time will get him back to full strength.

It’s an ill-timed injury for Kepler, both in the team sense — the Twins are a very likely Wild Card club but still hoping to chase down the division-leading Guardians — and in a personal sense. He’s in the final season of an extension signed prior to the 2019 season. That deal guaranteed him $35MM over five seasons and grew to a six-year, $44MM deal when the Twins picked up a 2024 option on him after a strong 2023 season. He’s now on the cusp of reaching free agency for the first time. Kepler had already seen his output take a step back from last year’s .260/.332/.484 slash (124 wRC+) and 24 homers, but after this recent lull at the plate his season-long batting line has wilted to a sub-par .253/.302/.380.

Taking Kepler’s place on the active roster will be the 27-year-old Keirsey. The Twins selected him with their fourth-round pick back in 2018. He’s old to be considered a true “prospect” and was passed over in last year’s Rule 5 Draft even after hitting a combined .294/.366/.455 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2023. The Twins are surely glad to have been able to hang onto him, as Keirsey now climbs to the majors after an impressive season that’s seen him produce a .292/.364/.477 slash in St. Paul. He’s connected on 14 home runs and swiped 36 bags in 43 attempts.

In scouting reports over the years, Keirsey has drawn praise for plus speed and athleticism. He’s seen as a viable center fielder and plus option in the corners. Scouts have questioned his hit tool, particularly after he fanned in 30% of his High-A plate appearances in 2021, but he’s trimmed that mark down to a more passable 23% in each of the past three seasons (22.8% in 2024).

If nothing else, Keirsey has the makings of a quality fourth outfielder who can be optioned back and forth between St. Paul and Minneapolis over the next few years, but he’s now had back-to-back productive seasons in the upper minors and could be something of a late-bloomer. He’ll add to a growing stock of lefty-hitting Twins outfielders on the 40-man roster. Even with Kepler set to hit free agency, the Twins have Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff and top prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez all on the 40-man roster, to say nothing of center fielder Byron Buxton and infielder/outfielder Austin Martin, who hit from the other side of the plate.

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Minnesota Twins Transactions DaShawn Keirsey Jr. Kody Funderburk Max Kepler

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Latest On Twins’ Trade Endeavors

By Mark Polishuk | July 30, 2024 at 12:24am CDT

The Twins are known to be working with little to no financial flexibility as the deadline approaches, as ownership’s big-picture revenue concerns continue to limit how much new money the front office can add.  RosterResource projects Minnesota’s payroll at roughly $127.8MM, as offseason cuts have already significant reduced spending from the team’s $158.8MM payroll from 2023.

Exchanging salaries might be the Twins’ most logical way of adding some help to their roster, and with this in mind, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes writes that “the Twins have listened to offers” from other teams about such controllable players as closer Jhoan Duran, and more obvious trade candidates like pending free agents Max Kepler or Manuel Margot.

Of course, listening to offers is a long way off from actively shopping players or having any particular inclination to move them, as Hayes notes that “the cost for Kepler and Duran is said to be extremely high.”  It can be assumed that Margot’s price tag is significantly lower, which isn’t surprising for a backup outfielder hitting .243/.302/.341 over 235 plate appearances this season.  Margot has roughly $1.3MM still owed on the Twins’ $4MM share of his overall $10MM salary for 2024, as the Dodgers are covering the other $6MM as per the terms of the February trade that brought Margot to the Twin Cities.

Kepler’s name has popped up in trade talks several times over the years, and he has about $3.33MM left on his $10MM salary for the 2024 season.  Kepler is a trickier player for Minnesota to replace since he is the primary right fielder and a solid defender, though he hasn’t traditionally had much success against left-handed pitching.  Even against righties, Kepler is hitting a modest .258/.317/.403 in 244 PA this season, so he doesn’t exactly offer a big splits advantage.

With this in mind, it seems perhaps a little odd that the Twins want an “extremely high” return for rental player like Kepler.  However, the Twins likely aren’t keen to substantially diminish their outfield depth given how many injuries the team has already fought through this year, and moving Kepler would then present Minnesota with another challenge in finding a replacement.

Duran is a different story altogether as a trade candidate.  For a team with a limited payroll, Duran is a particularly huge asset since he doesn’t reach arbitration eligibility until this winter, and he is under team control through the 2027 season.  Trading the closer therefore wouldn’t provide any help to Minnesota’s financial concerns, unless perhaps the Twins attached a larger contract along with Duran as part of a trade package.  That tactic, however, would lessen the value of one of the Twins’ top trade chips, in terms of what the team would receive in terms of an on-field return.

In another report earlier tonight, Hayes wrote that the Twins had some talks with the Dodgers about Duran, but wanted players who could help this season, rather than the Dodgers’ preferred offer of prospects.  Trading a closer might be simpler for a team just looking to cut payroll, yet the Twins are trying to thread the needle by both limiting spending and remaining competitive, as the team is in possession of an AL wild card spot and they’re 5.5 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead.

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Minnesota Twins Notes Jhoan Duran Manuel Margot Max Kepler

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Twins Option Louie Varland, Select Ronny Henriquez

By Darragh McDonald | April 22, 2024 at 1:05pm CDT

The Twins announced a series of moves today, activating outfielder Max Kepler from the injured list and selecting the contract of right-hander Ronny Henriquez. Those two will take the roster spots of right-hander Louie Varland and catcher Jair Camargo, who have been optioned. Right-hander Daniel Duarte was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot for Henriquez.

The Minnesota rotation has shifted quite a bit since last year, as Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle all reached free agency after the 2023 season. Mahle was already out of the picture after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May of last year, but the departures of Gray and Maeda left big holes relative to late last year.

The club acquired Anthony DeSclafani in the winter to take one rotation spot and it was hoped the remaining innings could be taken up by a healthy Chris Paddack or continued development from Varland. Unfortunately, none of three plans have worked for the Twins thus far. DeSclafani required flexor tendon surgery last month, which will keep him on the injured list for the entire year. Meanwhile, Paddack has an earned run average of 8.36 so far this year while Varland is even higher at 9.18.

The Twins’ faith in Varland wasn’t totally without merit, as he showed some encouraging signs last year. He tossed 68 innings for the big league club, striking out 25.1% of batters faced while walking just 6%. His ERA was up at 4.63 thanks to allowing 16 home runs, a 21.1% rate of fly balls leaving the yard. That was about double league average, which is part of the reason why his 3.77 SIERA was almost a full run lower than his ERA. He also had a 3.97 ERA in his Triple-A work last year.

Here in 2024, he’s already allowed six homers in just 16 2/3 innings, a massive 35.3% rate. That would naturally regress going forward, which is why his 4.30 SIERA this year is less than half of his ERA, but that doesn’t entirely wave away his results so far this season. Varland’s strikeout rate has dropped to 20.7% and his walk rate to 10.3%, both significantly worse than last year. After yesterday’s start, where Varland didn’t make it through the third inning, manager Rocco Baldelli was noncommittal about Varland sticking in the rotation.

“We have a whole lot of things we have to talk about,” Baldelli said, per Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic. “We have to have really almost anything on the table right now to find a way to improve.” He also said: “We’re going to have to be open to making roster moves and finding new ways to use players and figure some things out.”

Those rotation struggles have played a big part in the Twins limping out of the gate this year. The defending division champions are currently 7-13, putting them in a distant fourth place in the early going. They will obviously have to get the group in better shape as the season rolls along to get back in contention, and that starts with giving Varland a breather in the minors.

He’ll head to Triple-A and look to get himself back in good form. The length of his optional assignment could potentially impact him from a service time perspective, depending on when he comes back and for how long. He came into this season with 108 days of service time, meaning he needs to accrue 64 days this year to get to 172 and hit the one-year mark.

The Twins could have Paddack, Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober throw the next four games but will need someone to retake Varland’s spot by Friday at the latest. It’s possible that will be Simeon Woods Richardson, who came up to start one game of the club’s doubleheader on April 13. Brent Headrick and Matt Canterino are also on the 40-man roster but the former is on the IL with a forearm strain and the latter has been dealing with a rotator cuff strain and hasn’t pitched in the minors yet this year.

For now, Henriquez takes a spot on the roster and could give the club a multi-inning option out of the bullpen. He has thrown 13 1/3 Triple-A innings over seven appearances so far this year with a 4.05 ERA, striking out 14 opponents while giving out just two walks.

He has 11 2/3 innings of major league experience, which came with the Twins in 2022, but he struggled in the minors last year and was non-tendered. The Twins re-signed him to a minor league deal and he’ll now rejoin the roster, giving a fresh arm to a bullpen that had to cover a lot of innings after Varland’s poor start yesterday. Henriquez still has an option and can be sent back down to Triple-A at a later date without having to be exposed to waivers.

As for Duarte, it was reported over the weekend that he would require season-ending elbow surgery, so his move to the 60-day IL was an inevitability.

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Minnesota Twins Transactions Daniel Duarte Jair Camargo Louie Varland Max Kepler Ronny Henriquez

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Twins Notes: Lewis, Duran, Kepler

By Nick Deeds | April 20, 2024 at 9:39pm CDT

Twins fans received a positive update regarding injured third baseman Royce Lewis today with The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman noting that, per Minnesota head trainer Nick Paparesta, Lewis has resumed baseball activity and is “headed in the right direction,” with the start of a run progression on the horizon late next week.

It’s great news for the soon to be 25-year-old, who suffered what was termed a “severe” quad strain on Opening Day. Long regarded as one of the most exciting young talents in baseball, the first overall pick of the 2017 draft has done nothing but hit throughout his major league career with a .313/.369/.564 slash line since he made his debut back in 2022. That’s good for a sensational wRC+ of 159, but Lewis has been limited to just 71 games in the big leagues to this point in his career by a myriad of injuries, including torn ACLs in both 2021 and 2022.

While its easy to be pessimistic about Lewis’s health given his lengthy injury history, the fact that he’s already resumed baseball activities is heartening news given the fact that Lewis was initially expected to be shut down for an entire month before being re-evaluated. That would seemingly put him more than a week ahead of schedule, making a return as soon as sometime in the middle of next month a realistic target for the youngster.

Adding Lewis’s bat back to the lineup would surely provide a huge boost for Minnesota, as the club has scuffled to a 7-12 record in the early going this season while posting a collective wRC+ of just 78, good for bottom three in the majors. If Lewis were to return and take over some of the at-bats currently being offered to struggling veterans Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro, it could help transform the lineup and provide a spark to a team that’s already seven games back of the red hot Guardians for the AL Central crown early in the 2024 campaign.

Lewis isn’t the only key Twins player who could be gearing up for a return in the near future, however. Gleeman also notes that closer Jhoan Duran continued his rehab from an oblique strain with a 21-pitch session against live hitters yesterday. Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Gleeman) following the session that Duran looked like he was “just about ready” to face hitters in real games. Gleeman went on to add that Duran is expected to be cleared for a rehab assignment in the near future, and that the righty flamethrower could return to the big league club before the end of April despite initial concerns that he would be sidelined into next month.

Should Duran return to the big league club in short order, it would provide a major boost to a Twins bullpen that has largely handled itself well in his absence. While he’s yet to make an appearance this season, Duran has been among the most dominant relief arms in the sport since making his debut back in 2022 with a 2.15 ERA (191 ERA+) and a 2.85 FIP in 130 innings of work over the past two seasons. He stepped into the closer role for the club last year and performed admirably, picking up 27 saves in 32 chances. Griffin Jax has acted as the club’s top option in the ninth inning while Duran has been shelved.

Gleeman goes on to suggest that while Duran could return before the end of the month, outfielder Max Kepler figures to rejoin the club even sooner than that. Kepler was placed on the IL earlier this month due to a right knee contusion after fouling a ball off his knee on Opening Day but could be nearing a return, with Baldelli suggesting that Kepler is “close” to being ready to return and Gleeman indicating he could be back in the lineup for Minnesota as soon as Sunday.

Kepler scuffled badly prior to his stint on the shelf, going 1-for-20 with a walk to open the season, but was a key cog in the club’s lineup last year as he slashed a solid .260/.332/.484 while playing strong defense in right field. With Kepler out of the lineup, the Twins have been relying on a mix of Trevor Larnach, Manuel Margot, and Austin Martin to cover the outfield corners in his absence with Byron Buxton entrenched in center field.

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Minnesota Twins Notes Jhoan Duran Max Kepler Royce Lewis

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Twins Acquire Michael Tonkin From Mets

By Darragh McDonald and Steve Adams | April 9, 2024 at 2:44pm CDT

The Twins announced that they have acquired right-hander Michael Tonkin from the Mets, after the latter club designated him for assignment last week. Outfielder Max Kepler has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a right knee contusion, opening an active roster spot for Tonkin. Right-hander Zack Weiss was transferred to the 60-day IL due to his right shoulder strain, opening a spot on the 40-man.

Tonkin, 34, returns to the organization that originally drafted him in the 30th round back in 2008. He’s pitched in the D-backs, Brewers, Braves and Mets organizations since originally leaving the Twins, in addition to stints in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, the Mexican League and the independent Atlantic League.

Though he pitched just four innings with the Mets, Tonkin spent the entirety of the 2023 season in the Braves’ bullpen, working to a 4.28 ERA with a solid 23.1% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate in 80 innings of relief. That marked his first MLB experience since 2017. Overall, Tonkin has appeared in parts of seven big league seasons. He carries a career 4.38 ERA with strikeout and walk rates that closely mirror his 2023 levels in Atlanta.

Tonkin originally signed a split one-year deal with the Mets, which calls for just a $1MM base salary. The Twins will owe him the prorated portion of that sum for any time spent on the big league roster, though he’ll have a different rate of pay in the minors if Minnesota designates him for assignment, passes him through waivers and outrights him to Triple-A St. Paul. He’s out of minor league options, so he can’t be sent down unless going through that waiver process first.

The Twins have several relievers on the injured list, most notably including Jhoan Duran, Caleb Thielbar and Justin Topa. None of those injuries are expected to require long-term absences, but Tonkin will add a veteran arm to a group that’s been tested more early on than the front office would’ve hoped. If he can get on track and carve out a role in the Twins’ bullpen, he’s technically controllable through the 2026 season via arbitration.

Kepler fouled a ball into his leg recently, creating the contusion that’s currently hobbling him. The 31-year-old is out to a poor start at the plate, having gone just 1-for-20 with a walk and six strikeouts. Kepler had a prolonged slump during the 2023 season as well, struggling badly in May and for most of June before catching fire late that month. He closed out the season hitting .297/.368/.545 with 17 home runs in his final 326 plate appearances. That torrid run erased any doubt that might’ve been rising regarding his $10MM club option for the 2024 season.

With Kepler on the shelf, the Twins can go with fellow lefty swingers Matt Wallner and Alex Kirilloff in the outfield corners — presumably with Wallner in right field. Right-handed-hitting Manuel Margot will work into the mix against lefty starters, and the Twins could also mix in utility players Willi Castro and Austin Martin.

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Minnesota Twins New York Mets Transactions Max Kepler Michael Tonkin Zack Weiss

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Injury Notes: Twins, E-Rod, Dodgers, Jackson

By Steve Adams | March 29, 2024 at 11:22am CDT

The Twins won their season-opener against the Royals yesterday, jumping out to a quick 1-0 lead with a first-inning homer off the bat of burgeoning star Royce Lewis. The former No. 1 overall pick singled in his next at-bat but departed shortly thereafter, coming up lame when going first-to-third on a Carlos Correa double. The Twins announced that Lewis had a quadriceps injury. He underwent an MRI last night, per Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Further updates figure to be available before tomorrow’s game, though Miller notes that Lewis was optimistic and described the feeling as cramping more than severe pain.

In many ways, it’s a three-inning microcosm of Lewis’ career. The 24-year-old is a .313/.369/.564 hitter in 284 plate appearances — not including last year’s four postseason homers in 26 plate appearances — but he’s also twice torn his ACL and had IL stints for oblique and hamstring strains. A healthy Lewis has superstar potential, but injuries have been far too frequent early in his career. If Lewis requires a trip to the injured list, top prospect Brooks Lee won’t be an option to replace him. The 2022 No. 8 overall pick is dealing with a back injury, and Triple-A skipper Toby Gardenhire tells KSTP’s Darren Wolfson that he’ll be down for about three to four weeks (X link). Minnesota also had an injury scare with right fielder Max Kepler, who exited the game after fouling a ball into his leg. X-rays came back negative, per the Star-Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale (X link).

A few more injury situations worth monitoring as they unfold…

  • The Diamondbacks lost Eduardo Rodriguez to a lat strain late in spring training — a discouraging development for the left-hander, who inked a four-year deal worth $80MM over the winter. No timetable was provided at the time of the injury, but manager Torey Lovullo told the team’s beat yesterday that Rodriguez could throw off a mound in about five days (X link via Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). Jon Heyman of the New York Post, meanwhile, writes that the Snakes expect Rodriguez to be down for about a month. That’d be a notable absence but far from a worst-case scenario, as lat strains for pitchers can often result in multiple months on the shelf. In 152 2/3 frames last season, E-Rod notched a 3.30 ERA, 23% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate for the Tigers.
  • Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts provided a series of updates on some injured pitchers yesterday (X thread via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times). There was good news on both Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw, each of whom Roberts described as ahead of schedule. The Dodgers have made clear they’re being cautious with Buehler’s rehab from a second career Tommy John surgery, but the right-hander’s progress so far is encouraging enough that he’ll be back “sooner than I think we anticipated,” per Roberts. Kershaw, who had shoulder surgery in early November, is long-tossing from 120 feet and ahead of initial rehab projections. Roberts’ updates on righties Brusdar Graterol and Blake Treinen were far less encouraging. Both are playing catch but are “a ways away” from activation. Graterol was slowed by hip and shoulder troubles during camp, while Treinen suffered a bruised lung when a comeback liner hit him in the chest. The Dodgers originally suggested that it wouldn’t require a lengthy absence, but Treinen has yet to even throw a bullpen session.
  • Right-hander Luke Jackson exited last night’s game with Giants trainers after suffering some degree of back injury. Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that the 32-year-old Jackson underwent an MRI and will be further evaluated today. Jackson missed just under a month with a back strain last year but said following last night’s injury that the initial pain this time around was not as severe as it was in 2023. The Giants inked Jackson to a two-year, $11.5MM contract in the 2022-23 offseason while he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He made his team debut late last May and was excellent when healthy enough to be on the roster: 33 1/3 innings, 2.97 ERA, 30.1% strikeout rate. Last night, however, Jackson’s velocity was down more than a mile per hour from his 2023 average, and he allowed all three hitters he faced to reach base. All three came around to score.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers Minnesota Twins Notes San Francisco Giants Blake Treinen Brooks Lee Brusdar Graterol Clayton Kershaw Eduardo Rodriguez Luke Jackson Max Kepler Royce Lewis Walker Buehler

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Mariners Asked About Max Kepler In Trade Talks With Twins

By Darragh McDonald | January 31, 2024 at 5:40pm CDT

The Mariners and Twins recently got together on a trade that sent infielder Jorge Polanco to Seattle, with a four-player package heading the other way. Today, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports that the M’s asked about a larger deal that would have also involved outfielder Max Kepler, though that particular line of discussion wasn’t fruitful.

Though the talks didn’t yield results, it seems to suggest that the Mariners still have some appetite for another move to further change their outfield mix. Since last year, they have lost Teoscar Hernández and Jarred Kelenic, the former reaching free agency and signing with the Dodgers while the latter was traded to Atlanta. The M’s replaced those two by acquiring old friend Mitch Haniger from the Giants as well as Luke Raley from the Rays. On paper, those two would slot into the regular outfield alongside Julio Rodríguez.

There would be some logic to adding to that group. Due to some injuries and the shortened 2020 season, Haniger has only played more than 63 games in a season on three occasions. The past two years have each seen him finish with around 60 games played, missing time due to a right high ankle sprain, a left oblique strain, a right forearm fracture and a low back strain. He’s generally been able to post good results even when battling injuries but 2023 was a struggle. He hit .209/.266/.365 for a wRC+ of 73, his first season of subpar offensive production since his 2016 debut.

Giving Haniger plenty of time in the designated hitter slot would be a logical plan in a vacuum but likely isn’t feasible for the M’s with the current roster construction. They signed catcher Mitch Garver to a two-year, $24MM deal last month, but he figures to DH on an everyday basis or something close to it, with Cal Raleigh behind the plate most days. An injury could always change things but Haniger is currently projected for a regular role in the outfield.

As for Raley, his 2023 was strong overall but ended on a down note. He hit .268/.357/.533 through the end of July while striking out in 29.8% of his plate appearances. From the start of August until the end of the season, his line was just .200/.270/.380 with a 36% strikeout rate. The combined work for the year was still well above average, 130 wRC+, but the overall track record is limited. He’ll turn 30 years old next year and has played one good MLB season, which still came with concerning elements.

The Mariners also have a batch of depth outfielders in the mix, including Taylor Trammell, Cade Marlowe, Dominic Canzone, Zach DeLoach and Jonatan Clase, but their interest in Kepler suggests they would consider another addition under the right circumstances. The free agent market still has Cody Bellinger, though it’s hard to envision the M’s giving out a mega deal to a player like that since they have had notable budget limitations this offseason. More plausible options would include Michael A. Taylor, Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham or Eddie Rosario. The trade market could feature guys like Alec Burleson, Randy Arozarena or Seth Brown.

Seattle’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has suggested that the 2024 club will have a higher payroll than last year’s $140MM figure, but uncertainty around the broadcast revenue situation might limit them to a modest increase. Roster Resource currently has them at $135MM, meaning Kepler’s $10MM salary would have pushed them to $145MM.

For the Twins, perhaps they weren’t as open to dealing Kepler as they were with Polanco. While the latter was getting squeezed out of a crowded infield picture, Kepler could still play an important role with the 2024 club. He had a bounceback season at the plate last year, hitting 24 home runs and slashing .260/.332/.484 for a wRC+ of 124. He also provided above-average defense in right field, as he has done for many years.

He figures to continue in that role in 2024, with Byron Buxton hopefully playing center field again. Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach could be lined up next to Kepler and Buxton, with players like Willi Castro, Nick Gordon, Austin Martin and Bubba Thompson perhaps in the mix as well.

Kepler has been a speculative trade candidate due to the fact that the Twins are looking to cut payroll, while he’s making $10MM and an impending free agent. But after the Polanco deal, the club is down to about $118MM in spending commitments, according to Roster Resource. They are reportedly looking to get into the $125MM-140MM range so don’t really need to shed any more money unless they pivot to some kind of blockbuster signing, which perhaps will keep Kepler in Minnesota for the upcoming campaign.

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Latest On Twins’ Trade Discussions

By Nick Deeds | January 20, 2024 at 5:43pm CDT

The Twins have been candid all throughout the offseason about their plans to reduce player payroll this winter, and they’ve largely been successful in that endeavor. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $124MM in 2024, which would represent a $35MM haircut relative to last year’s payroll. Given that reality, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the club does not plan on engaging in a “salary-dump” trade this winter.

That’s surely heartening news for Twins fans, given rumors that swirled earlier this offseason indicating that the likes of second baseman Jorge Polanco, outfielder Max Kepler, and infielder Kyle Farmer were available in trade this winter. While Hayes left open the possibility of a trade coming together, he made clear that the club doesn’t plan on dealing those players in order to clear salary or add prospects. Instead, the Twins are angling to bring back major league talent in any deal as they look to build on a 2023 campaign that saw the club win its first playoff series in two decades.

Hayes also indicates that the club would prefer to move Polanco and/or Farmer rather than Kepler, adding that the “expectation” entering the offseason was that Minnesota would move two infielders from their big-league roster to lessen the club’s positional logjam. Setting aside Polanco and Farmer, the club employees Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Edouard Julien as likely regulars with the likes of Jose Miranda, Austin Martin, Nick Gordon, Willi Castro and top prospect Brooks Lee all likely to spend at least some time on the infield dirt as well next season. The same goes for Alex Kirilloff, who figures to factor heavily into the club’s first base mix but has plenty of experience in the outfield as well. By contrast, the club’s outfield mix is much less crowded, with Kepler, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, and Trevor Larnach making up the club’s primary options though Kirilloff, Martin, Gordon, and Castro all also have experience on the grass as well.

Despite the club’s apparent willingness to deal from its surplus, Hayes suggests that a deal doesn’t appear likely to come together anytime soon. While he notes that the club has identified potential trade partners and begun talks with them, many of those teams are still waiting to see how the rest of free agency plays out. That’s not necessarily a surprise given the number of positional free agents, ranging from Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman to Justin Turner and Whit Merrifield, are still available at this point in the winter.

If the club hopes to add big league talent in exchange for parting with an established veteran like Polanco or Farmer, it’s not hard to see what areas of the roster they could target. The departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda have left the club unusually thin in the starting rotation. While a quintet of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, and Louie Varland would be a viable group to carry into Opening Day, there’s plenty of room for improvement in that group and the club lacks much in the way of depth. Should any of the team’s starting five suffer an injury early in the season, the Twins currently figure to lean on an unproven arm like Brent Headrick or Simeon Woods-Richardson to take the ball every fifth day.

MLBTR took a look at possible trade partners for the Twins regarding Polanco last month, and many of those same teams could also benefit from the addition of Farmer as well. The Mariners, Cubs, Blue Jays, Giants, and Marlins were among the clubs mentioned who could stand to add another bat to their infield mix while also having the sort of MLB-ready pitching depth that the Twins could be interested in from which to deal. Speculatively speaking, a team like the Dodgers or Angels could also benefit from bolstering their infield depth given the uncertain shortstop situation in L.A. and the many injuries Anaheim’s infielders suffered last season. Both clubs also have controllable pitching options who could theoretically be moved this winter, such as Gavin Stone and Chase Silseth.

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Twins Getting Trade Interest In Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler

By Mark Polishuk | December 9, 2023 at 10:29am CDT

Infielder Jorge Polanco and right fielder Max Kepler “are the two Twins players drawing the most interest on the trade market,” sources tell Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.  With Polanco in particular, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi adds that the former All-Star’s market has “increased” within the last week.

It doesn’t appear as though a deal might be particularly close for either player, as the Twins are one of several teams whose winter business has been somewhat stalled by the logjam at the top of the free agent market.  As Minnesota PBO Derek Falvey told Nightengale and other reporters at the Winter Meetings, “what we continue to hear on the trade front…is ’Hey, we have interest in some of your players.  We’d like to talk about these guys, but we have to wait on a few other things to happen,’ or free agent discussions to come to pass.  When that happens, you’re constantly waiting to some degree.”

Trade winds have swirled around Polanco and Kepler even before the offseason began, and that speculation even before Favley said last month that the Twins were going to reduce their payroll for 2024.  It is worth noting that the Twins might’ve been able to make those cuts simply by not retaining Polanco or Kepler for the next season, though the team opted to exercise club options on both players (Polanco for $10.5MM, Kepler for $10MM) rather than just lose them for nothing.

With some level of trade interest brewing, it would appear as through Minnesota’s front office made the right decision.  Obviously it remains to be seen if either player will be dealt at all, or what a return might be for either solid-but-unspectacular veteran.  Kepler also has only one year of control remaining, while Polanco can be controlled through the 2025 season via another club option ($12MM with a $750K buyout).

A case can be made that the Twins could or retain both Polanco and Kepler given how the team has battled injuries (including some missed time for these two themselves) over the last two seasons, yet Minnesota does appear to have something of a surplus around the diamond.  With Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien emerging last season, third base and second base might now be covered, leaving Polanco without an obvious starting position since Carlos Correa naturally has Polanco’s old shortstop spot covered.  Matt Wallner, Nick Gordon, and Trevor Larnach are all left-handed hitting outfield options, so Kepler might be a bit of an expendable piece.

Perhaps ideally, Minnesota would prefer to trade utilityman Kyle Farmer (and his $6.6MM projected arbitration salary) rather than Polanco or Kepler.  That said, rival teams would likewise be more willing to give up a notable return to land an everyday type of commodity rather than Farmer, who is maybe best suited for a part-time role.  Since center field, first base, and the rotation are all target areas for the Twins this winter, they might have no choice but to move at least one of Polanco and Kepler to thread of needle of upgrading the roster while also reducing payroll at the same time.

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Twins Planning To Reduce Payroll

By Anthony Franco | November 7, 2023 at 10:44pm CDT

The Twins anticipate scaling back player payroll this offseason, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters at the GM Meetings (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune). The Twins opened the 2023 season with an estimated $154MM figure, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts — about $20MM north of the previous organizational high.

“We’ve pushed our payroll to heights that we had never pushed it before with the support, certainly, of ownership,” Falvey said Tuesday. “We know there is some natural ebb and flow to that. Will it be where it was last year? I don’t expect that. I expect it less than that.”

Unsurprisingly, Minnesota’s front office leader declined to go on record with a specific spending target. However, Dan Hayes of the Athletic reports that the Opening Day number could land somewhere between $125MM and $140MM.

It’s not entirely surprising, as Falvey had alluded to a potential spending cut last month. At the time, he pointed to the club’s uncertain local television rights fees amidst the ongoing bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, the corporation that runs the Bally Sports networks. The Twins are one of 14 teams that had an agreement with Diamond. Minnesota is still without a resolution on its 2024 in-market broadcasts, as its previous local rights deal expired at the end of the season.

Nevertheless, it’ll be disappointing news for a fanbase just a month removed from celebrating an AL Central title and the end of an 18-game postseason losing streak. The Twins have a little over $90MM in guaranteed commitments after exercising options on Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco to start the offseason. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects around $20MM in salaries for the group of arbitration-eligible players. Minimum salary players to fill out the roster bring their current projection to roughly $120MM.

However, that includes a $6.6MM arbitration projection for potential non-tender candidate Kyle Farmer. Hayes writes that Minnesota plans to explore trade possibilities on Farmer, who had a solid first year in Minneapolis. Acquired from the Reds last winter, he hit .256/.317/.408 over 369 trips to the plate. While that’s quality production for a multi-positional infielder, Minnesota got even better play out of minor league signee Willi Castro.

The Twins also have Polanco as an option to bounce between second and third base, which are likely to be manned by Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis to begin the year. With Castro and Nick Gordon also on hand, Farmer could find himself on the outside looking in. If the Twins can’t find a trade partner, they’d need to decide by November 17 whether to tender him a contract.

Of course, Polanco or Kepler could be trade possibilities themselves. Nothing prevents Minnesota from dealing either player after exercising the option. While Polanco is part of a crowded infield, Kepler is one of a number of left-handed hitting outfielders. They’re both key contributors to the lineup, so the Twins don’t figure to give either player away. They’d each have appeal were Minnesota to put them on the trade market, however. That’s especially true of Polanco, who is arguably better than any middle infielder in this winter’s free agent class and controllable for an additional season via a $12MM option for 2025.

As things stand, Minnesota could fall into the reported $125-140MM range without moving anyone off the big league roster. They’d be without much flexibility for outside acquisitions and are facing the departures of a few notable free agents. Sonny Gray is a lock to decline the qualifying offer in search of a multi-year deal worth upwards of $20MM annually, a price that’s difficult to see the Twins matching unless they move multiple players. Kenta Maeda, Michael A. Taylor, Emilio Pagán, Tyler Mahle and Donovan Solano all also hit the market. Taylor could be a particularly tough loss if the Twins aren’t confident in Byron Buxton manning center field regularly next season.

The rotation could be in solid shape even if none of Gray, Maeda or Mahle return. Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack is a strong front four, while Louie Varland has upside at the back end. The group would be a lot thinner without Gray and Maeda, however, making it difficult to repeat their AL-best production of this past season. It stands to reason they’d like to bring in at least one veteran arm to stabilize things — either in a trade or via free agency after reallocating some money.

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