Checking In On Last Year’s Toughest Outs
If you’re an offensive player in baseball, there is nothing more important than avoiding outs. Common sense indicates the more you get on base – whether with a hit, a walk or a hit by a pitch – the better your team’s chances are of scoring and ultimately winning. That’s why on-base percentage is more useful than batting average or slugging percentage, two other conventional stats that help define a hitter’s value.
Just six qualified hitters reached the .400-OBP mark in 2018. The group included the best player in baseball, another potential Hall of Famer, each league’s MVP, an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship and a potential star in the making. Let’s take a look at how that six-man club is doing in 2019…
Mike Trout, Angels (2018 OBP: .460):
Here’s the “best player in baseball” mentioned above. The 27-year-old Trout has reached 45.5 percent of the time through 231 plate appearances, putting him right in line with last year’s league-best effort. He’s also on track for his fifth straight season with at least a .400 OBP. Trout was a .312 hitter in 2018 who walked 20.4 percent of the time. His average has noticeably dropped (to .283), but his walk rate is up a bit and opposing pitchers have helped Trout’s cause by already hitting him six times. He wore 10 pitches last year in 378 more PA.
Mookie Betts, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .438):
Betts got on base a bit less than Trout last season, but the Boston superstar led the sport in fWAR en route to AL MVP honors. While Betts hasn’t been quite as sharp this year, he has still avoided outs at a phenomenal clip (.400 in 255 trips to the plate). The 26-year-old has walked 14-plus percent of the time for the second consecutive season, but a 55-point decline in batting average (.346 to .291) and a 54-point BABIP drop (.368 to .314) have hurt his OBP. Plus, Betts isn’t on pace to match the eight HBPs he totaled in 2018, having picked up only two so far.
Joey Votto, Reds (2018 OBP: .417):
Votto’s the “potential Hall of Famer” named in the opening. The hitting savant has managed a remarkable .424 OBP dating back to his 2007 debut, in part because he has drawn nearly as many walks as strikeouts. However, that hasn’t been the case in 2019. Now in his age-35 season, Votto’s walk rate is at a pedestrian-by-his-standards 11.6 percent – down nearly 5 points from his career mark – while his strikeouts have soared. Putting the ball in play less helps explain why Votto, a lifetime .309 hitter, has only mustered a .242 average this season. Worse, Statcast credits Votto with a .229 expected average, indicating a rebound may not be on the way. Despite his newfound woes, Votto has still put up an above-average .340 OBP in 215 PA this year, but it’s nothing to get excited about in the venerable first baseman’s case.
Brandon Nimmo, Mets (2018 OBP: .404):
Nimmo’s far and away the least accomplished member of this list, but that doesn’t take away that the 26-year-old was a stupendous offensive player in 2018. As only a .264 hitter, though, his high OBP came thanks in part to a league-leading 22 HBPs over 433 PA. Nimmo has not been a magnet for pitches this year, however, having taken three in 130 trips to the plate. He’s also batting a mere .200 and has seen his BABIP fall from .351 to .288. Nimmo is collecting walks at a terrific clip (16.1 percent), but his .344 OBP is still a 60-point drop-off from last season.
Christian Yelich, Brewers (2018 OBP: .402):
We arrive at the other MVP on this list. What’s Yelich, 26, doing for an encore? Well, he ranks third in the majors in OBP (.425), in part because his walk rate has climbed from 10.4 percent to 15.1. Yelich has also logged a .314 average even though his BABIP has sunk 87 points since last year.
J.D. Martinez, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .402):
Martinez, described above as “an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship,” has been closer to very good than great this season. A .375 BABIP/.330 average helped drive Martinez’s OBP last season, but he’s at .315/.298 in those categories through 219 PA this season. Consequently, the 31-year-old has “only” reached base 37.9 percent of the time. But Martinez is striking out a lot less, which bodes well, and Statcast puts his expected average at .321. Another .400-OBP season certainly isn’t out of the question for Martinez.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quick Hits: 2009 Draft, Trout, Morton, Twins, Bradley, Marlins
Stephen Strasburg generated headlines as the consensus first overall pick of the 2009 draft, though that draft has taken on a different historic import almost ten years later, as that was the night Mike Trout officially became a Major League player. MLB.com’s Jim Callis looks back at the 2009 draft with a decade of hindsight, re-drafting the first round with the top players who were selected (and signed contracts) from that year’s class. In this scenario, the Nationals take Trout first overall instead of Strasburg, who falls to the Pirates with the fourth overall pick. The Mariners take Nolan Arenado with the second pick, while the Padres take Paul Goldschmidt third overall.
The actual draft spots of these superstars (Trout went 25th overall, Arenado in the second round, and Goldschmidt not until the eighth round) is indicative of the draft’s unpredictable nature, as teams and pundits simply never know which unheralded youngster might develop into a gem. Callis includes several interesting notes and scouting opinions about various players at the time of the 2009 draft, including the item that only the Athletics, Diamondbacks, and Tigers were known to be linked to Trout, among teams who had a chance to select him before the Angels. Many clubs didn’t have interest due to rumors that Trout was seeking a $2.5MM draft bonus, which would’ve exceeded the slot price for all but the top five picks, though in the end Trout signed with the Angels for the $1.215MM league-recommended slot price attached to the 25th overall selection.
More from around the baseball world…
- Correcting one of his own reports from the offseason, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News (Twitter link) notes that the Twins “were very much in on” Charlie Morton before the veteran righty signed a two-year, $30MM deal with the Rays. Since Morton was only looking for a short-term deal as he nears the end of his career, he fit the model of what the Twins were looking for this past winter, as the club inked the likes of Nelson Cruz, Martin Perez, Jonathan Schoop, and Marwin Gonzalez to contracts consisting of no more than one or two guaranteed years. It isn’t known how close Morton and the Twins might have come to an agreement, though the Rays did have a geographical ace up their sleeve, as Morton has stated that the Rays’ close proximity to his family’s home in Florida was a factor in his decision. Given that the Twins have already posted the best record in baseball, it’s hard to imagine how much better things could have been for the club with Morton in the rotation.
- After two seasons as an important weapon out of the Diamondbacks‘ bullpen, Archie Bradley has struggled to a 4.63 ERA over 23 1/3 innings in 2019. As a result, manager Torey Lovullo told the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro and other media that Bradley will continue to handled carefully so he can get back on track, and likely won’t see many high-leverage moments. “We might get him some (appearances with) multiple innings to continue to develop a feel. We might give him some really short spurts to walk off the mound and have a good result,” Lovullo said. While a .409 BABIP is a big factor in Bradley’s issues, a lack of control has been his biggest problem, as his 5.79 BB/9 is more than double his walk numbers from the previous two seasons.
- Marlins fans bemoan the fire sale that saw the likes of Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto, and Dee Gordon leave the team over the last 18 months, yet as The Athletic’s Marc Carig (subscription required) observes, Miami also parted ways with a wealth of pitching talent in recent years. Luis Castillo, Domingo German, Trevor Williams, and Chris Paddack were all somewhat unheralded prospects when the Fish traded them in various deals for veterans who ultimately didn’t help the team return to contention. Between all of these names and some other notables (Derek Dietrich, Nick Wittgren, Anthony DeSclafani), Carig comprises a startling what-if of a 2019 Marlins roster that would be on pace to win 102 games, as per Baseball Reference WAR calculations. “By simply securing the talent, they’d accomplished the hardest part of assembling a dynasty,” Carig writes. “Then, all of it slipped away. No team bats 1.000 when it comes to trades. Few teams hit near .000. For a period, the Marlins were seemingly one of those.”
AL West Notes: Leclerc, Gallo, Trout, Upton
The Rangers will deploy reliever Jose Leclerc as an opener in today’s game, the club announced. He’ll throw in front of Drew Smyly. The 25-year-old Leclerc will open for the second time this year. He entered the campaign as the indisputable closer after inking an extension over the winter, but lost that job when his prior control problems resurfaced. It seems the Rangers are looking to provide some stability for the live-armed hurler, who has dealt with minor shoulder and calf issues recently. Otherwise, he has been much more impressive of late, with a whopping 16:1 K/BB ratio in his last seven frames.
More from the AL West:
- Though he departed last night’s game with wrist soreness, Rangers slugger Joey Gallo doesn’t seem to be at any risk of a trip to the injured list. As Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports, Gallo will get a day of rest today. That had already been planned, says Texas skipper Chris Woodward. Even as he has ramped up his offensive productivity by boosting his walk rate and continuing to launch prodigious long balls, Gallo has stretched his legs in the field. He has graded as a clear positive at all three outfield positions in recent seasons, though he had never before been utilized exclusively on the grass and had limited experience in center field. That modified deployment might itself warrant a few added days off to keep Gallo fresh over the course of the season.
- The Angels seemingly dodged a bullet when superstar Mike Trout wore a foul ball off his foot. Though he’s dealing with some soreness, he says there’s no fracture, as Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group tweets. The L.A. organization needed a break — of the other kind — after watching Andrelton Simmons hit the shelf, followed in short order by Zack Cozart.
- In other Halos health news, outfielder Justin Upton suggested a return from his turf toe injury is now within sight, as Fletcher reports. Though Upton cited a three-week target, that may be on the optimistic side. He’ll still need to don his cleats and run at full tilt, then complete a rehab assignment, without any recurring issues.
- In case you missed the late-night news, Mariners infielder J.P. Crawford appears to be headed to the injured list after suffering an ankle injury in last night’s contest.
Injury Notes: Trout, Jeffress, Benintendi, Cobb, LeBlanc
Angels megastar Mike Trout, who has been unavailable for several days due to a groin injury, has shown improvement and will rejoin the Angels for their series in Texas, per Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group. He remains day-to-day and it is yet unclear when he will be ready to return to the lineup, but the update is certainly welcome news for the Angels. Trout exited the Angels’ April 9 contest with the Brewers after suffering a right groin strain and remained in Los Angeles while the rest of the team traveled to Chicago. The club has managed well in Trout’s absence, finishing a three-game sweep of the Brewers and winning one of two games against the Cubs, with Sunday’s rubber match postponed. The news should certainly inspire some optimism for Angels fans, who have collectively been holding their breath since Trout’s injury. Considering the circumstances, it would feel like the best-case scenario for the Halos to get their franchise cornerstone back after just a handful of games, a stretch in which the team has maintained its winning form.
Here are the latest updates on other injuries from around Major League Baseball…
- Brewers reliever Jeremy Jeffress has completed his rehab assignment and will rejoin the Brewers on Monday, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Jeffress, a stalwart of the Brewers’ dynamic bullpen in 2018, has been on the shelf for the beginning of the season with a shoulder issue, which has since been resolved, says Haudricourt. He will join Josh Hader in a Milwaukee bullpen that will be without Corey Knebel, who underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this season.
- In Sunday’s victory over the Orioles, Red Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi fouled a ball sharply off his right foot and had to exit the game. In some good news for the Sox, though, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports that x-rays on Benintendi’s foot returned negative results, though Benintendi will be day-to-day with a foot contusion. He was replaced in left field by Blake Swihart on Sunday, who could continue to serve as Benintendi’s substitute if he misses any time.
- Orioles righty Alex Cobb, out since April 6 with a lumbar strain, won’t come off the IL when first eligible, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com was among those to report. It doesn’t appear Cobb will miss much more time, however. Manager Brandon Hyde indicated he could start during the Orioles’ upcoming series against the Twins, which runs from April 19-21. Cobb pitched well in his lone start of the season, an April 4 loss to the Yankees in which he threw 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball.
- Seattle Mariners southpaw Wade LeBlanc will miss 4-6 weeks with a grade 2 oblique strain, skipper Scott Servais told reporters, including The Athletic’s Corey Brock (Twitter link). With LeBlanc headed to the 10-day IL, the team has called up right-hander Erik Swanson from Triple-A. Swanson will take LeBlanc’s place in the starting rotation and is slated to make his first Major League start on Wednesday.
Health Notes: Trout, Jeffress, Murphy, Tuivailala, Volquez
It doesn’t seem as if the Angels will end up needing to place superstar Mike Trout on the injured list. The club indicated in an announcement today that he’s recovering well after tweaking his groin muscle recently, with an MRI showing that the swelling is subsiding and Trout “report[ing] daily improvement.” Another medical review is scheduled for Sunday. It’s not known whether Trout could be activated thereafter, but a decision will need to be made sooner than later. While the club obviously prefers not to go without him any longer than necessary, the worst outcome would be for Trout to make things worse by rushing back.
More on the injury front from around the game:
- Late-inning man Jeremy Jeffress is expected to return to the Brewers after one more rehab outing, skipper Craig Counsell tells reporters including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (Twitter link). Jeffress has been moving at about the pace that was hoped when it was announced he’d open the year on the injured list with a somewhat balky shoulder. He has been knocked around a bit on his rehab assignment, though that’s hardly the focus. Jeffress says he’s gaining velocity and feeling stronger as he goes. He’ll soon get the chance to try to replicate his magnificent 2018 season.
- Rockies first baseman Daniel Murphy will not require surgery to repair his fractured left index finger, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports on Twitter. That seems generally promising, if only because it’s always preferable to avoid the risks of a procedure. It’s not clear exactly how long he’ll be sidelined; at last look, the club expected he’d be out of commission through at least the end of the month, but that seems like the bare minimum. Whatever the duration, it’ll be more than desirable for a team that currently sports the league’s worst offense.
- While there’s still no precise timeline, a return to action is now in sight for Mariners reliever Sam Tuivailala. He’s still at least a month away from the majors but is nearing live BP sessions, MLB.com’s Greg Johns reports via Twitter. The 26-year-old hurler, who is working back from a torn Achilles, appears to be a bit ahead of schedule as compared to expectations last fall. He still has a fair number of additional hurdles yet to clear, of course, but it’s generally promising for the increasingly interesting M’s.
- The Rangers still lack clarity regarding the severity of the elbow injury to veteran starter Edinson Volquez. For now, the plan is to put him on the shelf for the next four to six weeks before bringing him in for imaging and a medical review, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram was among those to cover (Twitter link). It’s a bit of an unusual situation, but it seems the hurler preferred to wait; the team agreed since he’d be sidelined regardless and the results would be more reliable after swelling has gone down. Volquez has suggested he’ll retire if he has again blown out his ulnar collateral ligament. If that’s not necessary, he could presumably return to pitch this year in Texas. It seems we’ll all wait a while longer to learn the outcome.
Angels Extend Mike Trout
March 21: Trout will make $36MM in 2019 and 2020 before earning $35.45MM annually over the remainder of the contract, Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times reports (via Twitter).
March 20: The Angels have formally announced Trout’s extension. The contract was announced as a 12-year deal, though that term also includes the two years for which he was already under contract.
The Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher tweeted today that it is technically being structured as a new 12-year deal and that the Angels have discussed moving some of the money he’s owed in 2019-20 back into the 2021-30 portion of the deal. Regardless of the exact structuring, the bottom-line numbers haven’t changed; Trout will be paid a total of $426.5MM over the next dozen years, effectively making the contract a 10-year, $360MM extension on top of the $66.5MM he was already set to earn in 2019-20.
March 19: The Angels are nearing agreement on a record-setting contract with superstar outfielder Mike Trout, according to ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan. Trout will be promised $360MM in new money over a ten-year term, according to reports from Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times (on Twitter) and Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.
Trout stands to earn $36MM in each of those ten seasons. The deal leaves in place his preexisting $33.25MM salaries for the 2019-20 seasons, which he agreed to under a previous extension that was also negotiated by agent Craig Landis.
Trout will turn 39 during the final season (2030) of his new contract. In all likelihood, he and the deal will still be with the Halos at that time. The new agreement will not include any opt-outs, per Shaikin (via Twitter), and provides Trout with full no-trade protection, Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds on Twitter.
From one perspective, it’s a record-setting contract befitting Trout’s status as a player of historic excellence. But the salary numbers pale in comparison to Trout’s own productivity on the ballfield. Since his first full season of play, in 2012, the peerless center fielder has vastly outproduced every other player in the game with a tally of 64.2 fWAR and 63.8 rWAR. Others have approached and even bettered Trout in single seasons — somehow, he has only twice been awarded the American League Most Valuable Player award — but none of his contemporaries has maintained anything approaching his unfathomably consistent level of top-end output.
Viewed in that light, there’s an argument to be made that this deal actually underpays Trout — perhaps by a significant amount. It’s important to bear in mind that he was still two years shy of free agency, which he’d have reached at 29 years of age owing to his earlier contract. Nolan Arenado, just one season away from the open market when he new contract with the Rockies, had more leverage relative to his own abilities. But it’s still notable that Arenado — an outstanding player whose best season nevertheless lags Trout’s worst — commanded a then-record $33.4MM AAV over seven new contract seasons. Trout’s deal promises to be longer and larger, but to be sure, but not by a margin that reflects the gap in these players’ established performance levels. Unsurprisingly, Trout’s new deal also easily tops the previous record for total guarantee that was recently set by Bryce Harper and the Phillies. That was a free agent deal; Harper took a longer term (13 years) to briefly reach a new high-water mark in total guarantee ($330MM). Still, in terms of new money, the gap between the contracts is only $30MM. The Harper vs. Trout prospect debate has been resolved conclusively to this point: the former is a heck of a player and the most marketable commodity in baseball; the latter has somehow already compiled numbers that warrant placement in Cooperstown.
It’s hard to overstate the immensity of Trout’s on-field output to this stage of his career. He has only once finished a full season with less than eight fWAR: the 2017 campaign, in which he was limited to 114 games due to a broken wrist and nevertheless posted 6.9 fWAR. While he’s no longer quite as dynamic in the field and on the bases as he was when he first cracked the majors — he’s merely very good or excellent in those areas — Trout’s offensive ability has morphed and risen over the years. He’s now as likely to take a walk as he is to strike out and might hit forty home runs in any given season. He has reached .300+ isolated power and .600+ slugging percentage tallies in each of the past two seasons. Frighteningly, Trout was never better with the bat in hand than he was in 2018, when he slashed an immense .312/.460/.628 — nearly twice the productivity of a league-average hitter (191 wRC+).
We can safely presume that Trout will age and decline like most players. But he still promises to be a hugely productive player for many years to come. There’s always risk in a long-term deal, but you couldn’t pick a better or more durable player to stake a bet on than Trout. All things considered, the Halos certainly seem to have secured quite a lot of promised future output for their money.
Even beyond the value the team can hope to achieve, the Angels have now locked in one of the game’s best-ever players for his entire career. The L.A./Anaheim organization has had its share of difficulties with sizable contracts and hasn’t yet produced a consistent core of talent to supplement Trout. But it also has only three more years left to pay aging slugger Albert Pujols and has steadily rebuilt its farm system over the past several years under GM Billy Eppler. It’s easy to dream on Jo Adell joining Trout and Justin Upton to form the game’s best outfield and tantalizing to envision Shohei Ohtani returning fully from Tommy John surgery to make an iconic superstar pairing. Whatever happens with the club’s other players, though, the Halos have certainty regarding the task at hand. The Angels and Trout are now bound together in pursuit of an elusive World Series title.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Phillies Introduce Bryce Harper
The Phillies introduced the new face of their franchise, $330MM outfielder Bryce Harper, at a press conference Saturday in Clearwater, Fla. Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Scott Lauber and Matt Breen of Philly.com, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com and Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia were among the reporters on hand to cover the presser, which also featured agent Scott Boras and Phillies owner John Middleton.
After Middleton stated in November that the Phillies were expecting to spend “stupid” money in the offseason, it came as no surprise that they emerged with Harper on a record-setting contract. And Middleton referenced his famous November declaration on Saturday, asking, “Does this look like stupid money?”
The answer is no for the Phillies, who have already sold upward of 220,000 tickets since reeling in Harper, their former division rival who spent the first seven years of his career with the Nationals. However, Middleton stressed this signing isn’t about profit for the franchise. Rather, it’s about returning the Phillies to superpower status after seven years among the dregs of the league.
“I’ve made enough money in my life,” Middleton told Boras during negotiations. “I don’t need to make more. My franchise value has risen dramatically over the last 25 years. I don’t need it to rise more. I’m here to win. I think your guy can help me win, and that’s all I want to talk about.’”
Boras, as is his wont, was colorful in summing up the Middleton-led Phillies’ successful courtship of Harper.
“The maestro wanted to build a championship, and he wanted his harp,” the game’s most famous agent quipped. “The Philadelphia-Phil-Harp-monic symphony is built.’’
While the Phillies’ pursuit of Harper was a well-publicized, months-long dance, Middleton revealed the club didn’t begin negotiating a contract with Harper’s camp until Feb. 20, the day after the Padres signed Philly target Manny Machado to a 10-year, $300MM deal. Those talks began before Middleton and his wife, Leigh, ventured to Las Vegas to meet with Harper and his wife, Kayla, on Feb. 23. It was there that the Phillies closed in on securing the coveted Harper, a six-time All-Star and onetime NL MVP whose career is on a Hall of Fame course.
“Me and my wife walked away [thinking], ‘Wow, we’re blown away by these amazing people,’ ” Harper said. “They really understand where we’re coming from, understand the family aspect of our life, understand the city of Philly and what it’s all about.”
Now that his trip to free agency’s in the rearview and he has possibly found the team with which he’ll finish his career, Harper is focused on helping the Phillies to a championship – which has eluded him to this point.
“I want to be on Broad Street, on a frigging boat, bus, or whatever it is,’’ Harper said, “and hold a trophy over my head.”
In the estimation of Harper’s camp, the structure of the contract should help the player and team achieve their goal of winning titles during the two sides’ long marriage. Because it’s a 13-year deal, the average annual value is worth a reasonable $25MM-plus per season, which will aid the Phillies from a luxury tax standpoint. And Boras noted Harper didn’t want an opt-out clause in his contract because his desire is to remain in Philadelphia and recruit future free agents to the city.
Harper even brought up the game’s foremost player, New Jersey native and Philly sports fan Mike Trout, as a potential future teammate.
“I know there’s another guy in about two years that comes off the books. We’ll see what happens to him,” Harper said of the Angels’ all-world center fielder, who’s slated to reach free agency after 2020 and whose next contract figures to eclipse Harper’s. Trout, it seems, helped influence Harper to pick the Phillies, as the latter revealed he “talked to [Trout] a lot” throughout his four-month stay on the open market.
It’s anyone’s guess whether Trout will join his friend in Philly in the next couple years. For now, the Phillies are satisfied with their current roster, with the addition of Harper serving as an exclamation point to a productive few months. Having added Harper, catcher J.T. Realmuto, shortstop Jean Segura, outfielder Andrew McCutchen and reliever David Robertson since last season ended, Middleton regards the Phillies as the front-runners in what should be an ultra-competitive NL East – a division Harper believes is a “juggernaut.”
“I just want to win,” said Middleton, “and with Bryce, we are going to win.”
Angels Have Considered Offering 10 Years, $350MM To Mike Trout
With Mike Trout down to his penultimate season of team control, the Angels have recently considered offering the center fielder a record-breaking contract – a $350MM extension over 10 years – though it’s unclear if they’ve actually proposed it, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Per Rosenthal, the accord would run from 2021-30, Trout’s age-29 to 38 seasons, meaning the future Hall of Famer would finish out the remaining two years and $66.5MM on his current contract before the extension would take effect.
A $350MM guarantee would be the highest in the history of baseball, quickly unseating the $330MM pact Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper received this week. It would also set a new high-water mark for average annual value at $35MM, defeating Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Greinke‘s $34.4MM per year. Still, as Rosenthal rightly observes, neither number appears adequate for Trout – a seven-time All-Star and two-time American League MVP who, at age 27, is already one of the greatest players in the history of the game. Since his first full season in 2012, Trout has posted a ridiculous 64.0 fWAR, just over 27 wins more than second-place man Josh Donaldson, while easily leading the majors in wRC+ (174, 17 percent better than runner-up Joey Votto) and slashing .310/.420/.579 with 235 home runs and 185 stolen bases across 4,538 plate appearances.
Just as Trout has lapped his competition on the diamond, he’s on track to do the same on his forthcoming deal – whether he signs an extension in the next two years or reaches free agency after 2020. Harper, the Padres’ Manny Machado (10 years, $300MM) and the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado (eight years, $260MM) have each signed enormous contracts in recent weeks, but as superb as they’ve been, their careers pale in comparison to Trout’s.
Since he first graced the majors in 2011, Trout has produced nearly $500MM in on-field value, according to FanGraphs. Trout has a case to aim for that figure (or $400MM-plus at minimum) on his next contract, but it doesn’t seem he’s in any rush to determine his long-term future just yet, having already achieved financial security when he landed a $144.5MM extension back in March 2014. When asked Friday if he’d be open to discussing a second extension with the Angels this spring, Trout didn’t slam the door shut, but he did suggest he’s more worried about readying himself for the regular season.
If Trout holds off on an extension, the Angels’ performance as a team this season could impact whether he’ll be open to discussions next winter. Trout “desperately” wants to win and has done everything in his power to carry the Angels to glory, but they’ve been startlingly inept despite his presence. Through the first seven full campaigns of Trout’s career, the Angels have earned just one playoff berth and haven’t even won a single postseason game. They’re now mired in a four-year playoff drought and haven’t finished above .500 since 2015.
Mike Trout Downplays Interest In Spring Contract Talks
3:15PM: Trout provided some clarification in a follow-up comment to Torres (Twitter link), saying that his original statement “didn’t mean” he would be holding off extension talks until next offseason.
11:17AM: On the heels of Bryce Harper‘s deal with the Phillies, Angels superstar Mike Trout was asked today about his own contract situation. Though he’s still two years away from the open market, there has been no shortage of speculation about the possibility of the Halos pursuing another extension with the game’s greatest current player.
Trout’s comments may not have closed the door to talks, but they were anything but a positive sign for those who’d like to see a deal come together. When asked by Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link) whether he’d like to work on a new contract, Trout responded:
“With spring training you want to get ready for the season. You don’t wanna worry about anything else.”
There are several ways to take that sort of comment, to be sure. It’s oblique enough that it arguably shouldn’t be taken to signify much of anything. Then again, Trout has to this point been fastidiously non-committal regarding his future (or even the possibility of near-term talks). And the stakes are high, as this offseason provided a potential window for the Halos to secure the franchise’s greatest-ever player for the long run.
There’s no necessary rush for the Angels, who can explore talks next fall. Trout enjoys no-trade protection and there’s zero indication that the Angels have any interest in dealing him regardless. With Trout already slated to receive $33.25MM in each of the next two seasons and plenty already in the bank, he’s unlikely to grant much of a discount.
Still, the clock is ticking on Trout’s tenure with the club. If indeed talks aren’t to be held in earnest this spring, that leaves the 2019-20 offseason as perhaps the only remaining realistic extension window. Trout is said to be focused on playing for a winning team; the Halos have missed the postseason in each of the past four seasons and have an at-best-uncertain outlook for the coming campaign. Today’s comments probably don’t represent a major change in the situation, but they do serve to highlight what’s at stake in the near future for the Angels organization.
AL Notes: Angels, Rangers, Lindor, Sano
Angels owner Arte Moreno discussed a few topics of interest today, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register covered. Moreno spoke positively of his interactions with the city of Anaheim regarding the club’s ballpark, seemingly representing an improvement in relations. He also gave a vote of confidence to the Billy Eppler-led front office. Most interestingly, though, Moreno explained the organization’s approach to spending on player contracts. It’s not about staying beneath the luxury tax line, he said; rather, the organization budgets to “allocate about 50 percent of [its] revenue towards payroll.” Moreno also added that he “bust[s] through that every year,” so it seems there’s some flexibility. Generally, though, the position helps explain some of the team’s spending patterns — including its approach this winter. Moreno says there’s still cash available for mid-season additions. Meanwhile, it’s still tough to gauge whether there’s a realistic possibility of a new deal with the incomparable Mike Trout. As MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger writes, Trout declined to comment on the possibility of a new deal at all, while Moreno would do little more than reiterate that there is interest on the team’s behalf.
More from the American League:
- The Rangers are considering the possibility of pursuing extensions with several young players, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. At this point, though, it’s not clear that the team has engaged any agents. Neither is it evident which players might be approached. Sullivan tabs Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara, and Jose Leclerc as the likeliest candidates. That would indeed seem to be a plausible trio. All have reasonable cases for significant money. Mazara is already into his arbitration years. Gallo and Leclerc have one more campaign to go, but each promises to accumulate the kinds of counting stats (home runs and saves, respectively) that pay well in arbitration.
- There’s little doubt that the Indians would love to find a way to extend star shortstop Francisco Lindor, who has reportedly spurned record-setting offers in the past. He says he’s still happy for the time being to go year to year, as Zack Meisel of The Athletic tweets. Lindor says he “love[s] everything about Cleveland,” but right now is “focused on arbitration” (so far as contractual matters go). That’s working out just fine, as he took down a big $10.55MM first-year arb payday. Ultimately, Lindor says, he may consider a long-term deal, though he certainly did not sound as if that’s something he’s particularly keen to pursue. Per Lindor: “If the Indians come up with the right numbers and at some point it happens — which, I’m not even thinking about — we’ll see.”
- True, reports on conditioning entering camp are a tired trope. But given all the heartache over the years surrounding the physical form of Twins slugger Miguel Sano, it seems relevant that he’s said to be in the best shape of his life — or, at least, the best shape of his MLB career. As Dan Hayes of The Athletic writes (subscription link), Sano embarked upon a robust workout program this winter and seems to be in top form. Whether that extends to his productivity on the field remains to be seen, but it’s a positive start.