Nelson Cruz

Quick Hits: Phillies, Mets, Stroman, Padres, Cruz

By TC Zencka | July 24, 2021 at 1:11pm CDT

The Phillies are interested in Craig Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, and Andrew Chafin of the Cubs, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Phillies’ scouts are present at Wrigley Field today. While it may seem counterintuitive, having so many potential trade targets on one team can muddy the trade waters, so we’ll see if the Phillies and Cubs can narrow their focus to get a deal done here in the coming week. Elsewhere…

The Mets and Marcus Stroman have not had any discussions about a possible contract extension, per Mike Ruiz of Newsday. Stroman has played a massive role in the Mets’ ascent to the top of the NL East this season, tossing 111 1/3 innings with a 2.59 ERA/3.50 FIP. He has ranked among the top-30 starters in the game by fWAR, innings pitched, ERA, FIP, groundball rate, and walk rate. He’s heading towards free agency without a qualifying offer attached entering his age-31 season.
Before the Rays pulled the trigger on the deal for Nelson Cruz, the Padres made a significant push to acquire the slugger, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Cruz has a history of taking grounders at first and second base, and though it’s certainly hard to imagine a successful plan to convert the 41-year-old DH into an infielder, the Padres were willing to give it a shot in order to have his bat on the bench. What’s more, they weren’t the only National League team in pursuit, per Rosenthal.

Rays Acquire Nelson Cruz

By Mark Polishuk | July 22, 2021 at 11:59pm CDT

With just over a week before the trade deadline, the Rays have made a big move in acquiring slugger Nelson Cruz from the Twins as part of a four-player swap. Cruz and minor league righty Calvin Faucher will head to Tampa, while Minnesota will pick up right-handers Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman.

With the Twins in the midst of a nightmare season, Cruz became a natural trade chip, as the 41-year-old slugger can be a free agent this winter. Cruz re-signed with Minnesota last offseason on a one-year, $13MM contract, and Cruz has roughly $4.87MM remaining in owed salary.

There was no announcement made of cash considerations being involved, so it appears as though the Rays will be taking on all of Cruz’s remaining salary. This is no small matter for a Rays team that always has an eye on the budget, and even with Cruz now in the fold, the club’s payroll is still under the $67MM threshold. Tampa Bay can (and likely will) make other moves before the July 30 deadline that could move some other dollars off the books, but as it stands, the Cruz deal is a sign that Rays ownership is willing to stretch a bit financially to bolster a team that looks like a contender to return to the World Series.

Despite Cruz’s age and seeming lack of defensive value, his bat has remained so dangerous that even some National League teams were reportedly including him in trade considerations, with an eye towards deploying Cruz in the outfield for the first time since 2018. While the Rays’ penchant for roster maximization could lead to Cruz getting at least a bit of time in the outfield, it’s a very safe bet that he’ll slot in as Tampa’s new everyday DH, bringing some big-time pop to a lineup that is solid overall but middle-of-the-pack in terms of power.

Austin Meadows had received the bulk of Tampa’s DH at-bats, though Meadows now looks to move into the outfield mix with Randy Arozarena, Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Lowe, and (when he returns from the IL) Manuel Margot. Lowe can also be utilized at second base, and between any other injuries or even trades that might emerge, the Rays shouldn’t have much issue in finding enough playing time to keep everyone fresh and ready for another postseason push.

Cruz will suit up for the sixth different team over what has been a very impressive 17-year career. Named to his seventh All-Star team just this season, Cruz is showing no signs of slowing down, hitting .294/.370/.537 with 19 homers over 346 plate appearances in 2021. This production is actually a dropoff from the .308/.394/.626 slash line he posted over 735 PA for Minnesota in 2019-20, but “decline phase” doesn’t really seem like an applicable description.

Neither Ryan and Strotman are in the upper crust of Tampa prospects, though MLB Pipeline did have them solidly ranked (Ryan 10th, Strotman 17th) on their list of the Rays’ best minor league talents. Both are starting pitchers with solid performances at Triple-A this season, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see their make their Major League debuts before 2021 is finished. Since the Twins are looking to return to contention next year, landing two big league-ready arms will help their rotation depth, considering Michael Pineda and J.A. Happ are both free agents this winter (and either could be moved before July 30.

Ryan is 25 years old and was a seventh-round pick for the Rays in the 2018 draft. He cracked Baseball America’s top 100 list (at 98th) prior to the 2020 season, and Ryan has continued his rise up the ladder by posting a 3.63 ERA over 57 innings at Triple-A Durham this year. At all levels, Ryan has been great at missing bats (36.65% strikeout rate over 217 minor league IP) and avoiding walks (6.05% walk rate), thanks in large part to an excellent four-seamer. MLB Pipeline’s scouting report isn’t as enamored with his other pitches, but Ryan’s slider did merit a 55 grade on their 20-80 scouting scale.

The 24-year-old Strotman was a fourth-rounder in the 2017 draft, though his pro career has been limited to 179 innings thanks to the canceled 2020 minor league season and a Tommy John surgery that kept him out of action for big chunks of the 2018 and 2019 campaigns. The Rays saw enough from Strotman that they added him to their 40-man roster last winter to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, and Strotman has looked solid in posting a 3.39 ERA over 58 1/3 Triple-A innings this year. His walks have increased as he has moved up the minor league ladder, topping out at an unimpressive 13.15% walk rate at Triple-A this year. Pipeline notes that command has been a strength for Strotman in the past, however, and the right-hander’s fastball, cutter, and slider are all ranked as above-average to plus pitches.

Faucher is the other name in the deal, a 25-year-old righty who has struggled in his first taste of Double-A baseball, posting a 7.04 ERA with six homers and 24 walks in 30 2/3 innings this season. After consistently posting big strikeout numbers earlier in his minor league career and in college (at UC Irvine), the hard-throwing Faucher has continued that trend with a 27.63% strikeout rate amidst his difficulties this season.

ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link) was the first to report that the Rays were acquiring Cruz, while Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links) was the first to report that it was a four-player deal also involving Strotman.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Latest On Padres’ Trade Targets

By Mark Polishuk | July 22, 2021 at 8:58pm CDT

Locked in a tight NL West race, the Padres are known to be looking for starting pitching and lineup help at the deadline. This leaves a wide range of possibilities open for an aggressive general manager like A.J. Preller, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears that Preller’s front office has “has talked with other teams about scenarios ranging from the seemingly obvious to the implausible.”

That gamut might be reflected in two hitters Acee links to the Padres, as he reiterates that the club continues to be interested in Joey Gallo, long mentioned as a target for San Diego. Beyond Gallo, however, Acee also notes that the Padres were one of the NL teams who had an interest in Nelson Cruz, before Minnesota sent the veteran slugger to the Rays in a trade earlier tonight. It would’ve been bold to put Cruz (a DH-only player for the last three seasons) back in line for regular outfield duty, which might be why the Twins ultimately found the most interested suitor in an AL team that could deploy Cruz in his normal DH spot.

On the pitching front, the Padres are looking for multiple arms to aid a rotation that had been hit with injuries. Acee writes that the targets are “both a potential innings eater and a starter who could be a viable option to start early in a playoff series.” The Padres’ talks with the Rangers and Twins also involved such names as Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kenta Maeda. San Diego has also had interest in Rockies right-hander Jon Gray and Royals left-hander Danny Duffy, though it is unclear if Duffy is still a consideration after he was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier this week.

Gray, Duffy, and Lyles are all pure rentals, as free agents after the season. Duffy and Gray have pretty comparable overall metrics, and while Duffy’s 2.51 ERA is significantly better than Gray’s 3.68 ERA, Gray has 93 innings pitched to Duffy’s 61, as Duffy is in the midst of his second IL stint of the season. Duffy also has full no-trade protection but the California native might be open to agreeing to be dealt back to his home state. Gray has no such trade protection, though the Rockies’ willingness to move a notable player to a division rival could be a potential obstacle.

The biggest issue with acquiring Lyles is likely that the 30-year-old simply hasn’t pitched well over his two years in Texas, posting a 5.84 ERA in 165 innings since the start of the 2020 season. A change of scenery could help Lyles regain the effectiveness he displayed in 2018-19, and Lyles is a familiar face for Preller, as the righty pitched for San Diego during the 2017 and 2018 campaigns.

A trade could also help Maeda escape the doldrums of a tough 2021 season, though the right-hander far from struggled in his first year in Minnesota, finishing second in 2020 AL Cy Young Award voting. Maeda missed a little over three weeks with a groin injury this year, and has pitched better over his last three starts, with a 1.69 ERA over his last 16 innings.

Maeda is no stranger to the NL West after spending his first four MLB seasons with the Dodgers, and he also has the most contractual control of any of the five pitchers known to be on San Diego’s radar. Maeda is owed only $3MM in guaranteed money in each of the 2022 and 2023 season, but several millions more are available in incentives based on innings pitched and games started. The overall price tag is still quite reasonable, and as much as Maeda hasn’t been a front-of-the-rotation type in 2021, his contract and his past track record make him a good trade chip. Of course, this assumes that Minnesota would be open to a trade for anything more than a very generous offer, as the Twins are reportedly not very interested in dealing anything beyond rental players.

Gibson is also controlled beyond 2021, as he still has a full year remaining (worth $7MM) on the three-year, $28MM free agent deal he inked with the Rangers in the 2019-20 offseason. With a 2.86 ERA over his first 107 innings, Gibson is on pace for a career year, and he already was named an All-Star for the first time in his nine MLB seasons. Gibson doesn’t miss many bats, however, and both his Statcast profile and overall career numbers don’t much help the argument that he can keep up this borderline ace production over the course of a full season, or into 2022.

What the Padres would be willing to give up for any of these players (or any deadline target) is still up in the air. The club is close to the $210MM luxury tax threshold already but they reportedly have the ability to cross that threshold, so money might not be the most pressing issue for deadline acquisitions. In regards to moving prospects, Acee hears that the Padres aren’t willing to move any of their top four minor leaguers — presumably MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Luis Campusano, or Robert Hassell — and might even look to add some more young talent in deals, though obviously the Padres wouldn’t be “deadline sellers” by any stretch of the imagination.

Speculatively, San Diego could look into some type of complex multi-player deal that would see them acquire a package that includes at least one notable MLB player that can help them win now, as well as a minor leaguer or two. The inclusion of prospects could perhaps make it easier for the Padres to move one of their better minor leaguers as part of a trade.

Multiple NL Clubs Have Considered Nelson Cruz

By Steve Adams | July 22, 2021 at 1:47pm CDT

It wouldn’t be deadline season without teams getting creative. Both ESPN’s Jeff Passan and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand report that at least a pair of NL clubs has explored the possibility of acquiring Twins designated hitter Nelson Cruz. Passan notes that Cruz “is game” to play the field in the event of a trade.

It’d be tough for a team to trust Cruz in the field much after he hasn’t suited up for an inning of defense since 2018. He’s only logged 54 innings with a glove since 2016. That said, Cruz is the best pure hitter on the market this summer, having slashed an excellent .294/.370/.537 with 19 home runs, 13 doubles and even a triple. He’d still be able to DH in any remaining interleague games at AL parks and could also do so during World Series play, should an acquiring team advance that far. Cruz is playing the season on a one-year, $13MM deal and would be owed about $4.54MM of that sum post-trade deadline.

Neither Passan nor Feinsand lists specific teams, but from a purely speculative standpoint, any of the Padres, Braves or Giants seem like long-shot possibilities to at least consider the idea. Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North in Minneapolis tweets that both the Braves and Dodgers had some interest last offseason, though many NL clubs spent much of the winter expecting that a universal DH would eventually be implemented.

San Diego general manager A.J. Preller has held an affinity for former Rangers players since taking the reins with the Friars, and he’s spoken of improving his lineup’s consistency this summer. Putting Cruz in an outfield corner would achieve that, albeit at the cost of a quite a bit of defense. There’s been no hard connection between the two parties, but the idea of an outside-the-box Cruz/Padres matchup has made sense for awhile now.

The Braves, meanwhile, are without Ronald Acuna Jr. and Marcell Ozuna; Cruz wouldn’t break the bank in terms of prospects and would give Atlanta a much-needed middle of the order presence. Given their rangy options elsewhere in the outfield, perhaps the Braves feel they could cover some of Cruz’s lack of range.

Over in San Francisco, the Giants have gotten just a .217/.291/.396 batting line from their left fielders in 2021. They were recently reported to be a “key” team in the Starling Marte market, but Cruz would be another rental bat who’d give the lineup some extra thump. Cruz roaming the outfield at the cavernous Oracle Park seems particularly treacherous, but it’s hard to overstate just how big an improvement he’d be over their current left-field production.

There are other possible fits, of course. The Cardinals have been struggling to find outfield production for a few years now. The Nationals are currently without Kyle Schwarber and have been looking at Josh Bell as an option in left field recently. It feels like we can never rule out the Dodgers doing anything that’s unorthodox and/or unexpected.

Really, one could make the argument that any contender or fringe contender is improved enough by Cruz’s bat to offset the defensive hit. Teams could get creative by only playing Cruz on the grass when heavy ground-ball and/or strikeout pitchers are on the mound. He could be frequently lifted for mid- or late-inning defensive replacements, and teams could experiment with four-outfielder shifts in certain favorable matchups. Cruz also has more than 8000 career innings in the outfield; at least with regard to balls hit in his general vicinity, he could be expected to make routine plays.

At the end of the day, it still seems likelier that whenever Cruz is moved, it’s to an American League club. But the Cruz-to-the-NL rumblings serve as a reminder that there are very few possibilities we should rule out entirely over the next eight days. Today’s front offices will be looking at all kinds of off-the-wall scenarios — particularly with so many teams still unsure as to how they’ll approach the trade deadline.

The Best Fits For Nelson Cruz

By Steve Adams | July 9, 2021 at 10:59pm CDT

As the Twins’ miserable season has continued, there’s been increasing talk of them operating as a deadline seller over the next three weeks. Nearly every contender will ask about Jose Berrios. There’s been speculation about the availability of Taylor Rogers. Josh Donaldson has been connected to the Mets. Michael Pineda is a pending free agent who could help quite a few rotations.

Over the course of the next few weeks, though, Nelson Cruz will be one of the highest-impact trade candidates to monitor. The seemingly ageless slugger is having yet another excellent season, slashing .299/.372/.553 (147 wRC+) with 18 home runs, 11 doubles and his first triple since 2018. Cruz’s 18.8 percent strikeout rate is the lowest it’s been since 2010. He just celebrated his 41st birthday, but he remains one of the game’s top threats at the plate.

Cruz is a free agent at season’s end, playing out the 2021 campaign on a one-year, $13MM contract. As of this writing, there’s about $6MM remaining to be paid out on that pact. By the time the deadline rolls around, Cruz will be owed about $4.5MM for the remainder of the season.

A bat of Cruz’s caliber will surely be in demand, but perhaps not to the extent one would imagine at first glance. As a pure designated hitter, he’ll face a more limited market than most trade candidates.

A National League club could technically acquire Cruz to DH during interleague play and serve as a vastly overqualified pinch-hitter, but it’s unlikely anyone is going to put Cruz in the outfield with any regularity. He hasn’t played an inning of defense since 2018 and has just 54 innings in the field since the conclusion of the 2016 campaign. It’s hard to ever fully rule something out as front offices get increasingly creative, but it seems overwhelmingly likely that if Cruz is moved, it’ll be to an American League club.

Of course, not all 14 American League clubs will be in play. None of the Rangers, Royals, Tigers or Orioles are in contention. The Angels aren’t going to displace Shohei Ohtani from the DH slot, nor will the Astros do so with Yordan Alvarez. The Yankees have Giancarlo Stanton serving as a primary DH. The Red Sox are enjoying the heck out of a resurgent J.D. Martinez campaign. The Indians have Franmil Reyes, and the Twins may not want to ship Cruz to a division rival anyhow.

On that note, it’s worth pointing out that there’s a decent fit with the AL Central-leading White Sox. Yermin Mercedes faded considerably after a torrid start to the season and was optioned to Triple-A this week. But the Sox have Eloy Jimenez on a rehab assignment, and he’s likely to see at least some time at DH as he eases back into the mix after surgery to repair a ruptured pectoral tendon. It’s also generally hard to imagine the Twins trading Cruz to the White Sox in order to help the South Siders seal up a division title for which Minnesota originally hoped to contend.

There are a few clubs that seem like the clearest fits if the Twins move Cruz. Here’s a look at what each of these teams has received from the DH spot in its lineup in 2021, followed by a more thorough look at the potential fit.

Athletics: .220/.289/.381, 88 wRC+
Rays: .226/.314/.411, 103 wRC+
Blue Jays: .240/.321/.429, 104 wRC+
Mariners: .237/.320/.421, 108 wRC+

Athletics: No contender in the American League could use a DH upgrade more than Oakland. Their offseason signing of Mitch Moreland has resulted in a .238/.286/.388 batting line through 175 plate appearances to date. As a team, the A’s rank 12th in MLB with 394 runs scored — 94 fewer runs than the MLB-leading Astros, whom Oakland happens to be chasing in the division.

The question with the A’s, as always, is one of payroll capacity. For most of this past offseason, it looked as though the A’s wouldn’t spend much of anything on the 2021 roster. Their late signings of Moreland, Sergio Romo, Yusmeiro Petit and Trevor Rosenthal boosted payroll up to $86MM — still well below the league average but not quite the threadbare levels seen in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Cleveland. Whether ownership would dish out another several million to rent Cruz for two-plus months remains to be seen, but even if the salary is deemed steep, the A’s could always pay a little more in terms of prospect capital in order to get Minnesota to cover some (or all) of the contract.

Rays: The financial element is perhaps even more notable with the Rays, who are currently operating on just a $62MM payroll. Tampa Bay also has a better in-house option than Oakland in the form of Austin Meadows. The 26-year-old Meadows can and has played some corner outfield this season, but the Rays have more defensively gifted options in Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot, Randy Arozarena and Brett Phillips.

Meadows has been the club’s primary designated hitter this year, logging 53 percent of the the Rays’ total DH plate appearances. On the whole, Meadows has been a productive hitter with a .243/.335/.485 batting line, 16 home runs, 23 doubles and a triple. However, he’s been mired in a down stretch at the plate, batting .231/.300/.374 over the past month. Cruz is an upgrade even over Meadows at his absolute best, but the Rays’ “need” for Cruz feels less acute than that of the Athletics.

Blue Jays: Adding Cruz to a lineup that already features Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer and Marcus Semien doesn’t really feel fair. Bringing Cruz into the fold would likely push Randal Grichuk back into a fourth outfielder role behind Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez. Early in the year, it would’ve been difficult to justify taking at-bats from Grichuk. He got out to a blistering start, batting .289/.322/.497 through the first two months. Since the calendar flipped to June, however, Grichuk is hitting .220/.244/.423 with a 29.1 percent strikeout rate in 127 plate appearances.

The Jays’ priority to this point has been the bullpen, and that will likely continue to be a point of focus for general manager Ross Atkins. That said, it never hurts to further strengthen an already potent lineup. If the prospect price for Cruz is to the Jays’ liking, they’re one of the few AL clubs that is both contending and has an easy path to carve out regular at-bats for the Boomstick. Unlike the A’s and Rays, money shouldn’t be an issue for them.

Mariners: A Cruz reunion tour with an unexpected contender in Seattle would make for a fun story for the final months of the season. Seattle is far from a postseason lock, but the Mariners are four games over .500 and just three and a half games out of a Wild Card spot. Much of the focus surrounding the Mariners has been on whether they’ll trade Mitch Haniger, but if they continue their hot streak — they’re 15-7 over their past 22 games — this is a club that could actually look to add some pieces.

The focus for Seattle would probably be on more controllable players who can help in 2022 and beyond. Starting pitching, in particular, will be the Mariners’ primary desire — as manager Scott Servais suggested this week. But if the Mariners can acquire Cruz without paying a price they feel will compromise a very promising long-term outlook, he’s a sensible upgrade. The move would be overwhelmingly popular with fans, and the Mariners have taken a potpourri approach at designated hitter this year anyhow. Ty France leads the team with an even 100 plate appearances as a DH, but he could be slotted into the lineup regularly at first base/second base for the balance of the 2021 campaign.

The Twins Are One Of The Keys To The Trade Deadline

By Steve Adams | July 1, 2021 at 9:37am CDT

The Twins have looked like sellers for much of the season, but as we’ve seen in recent years, most clubs prefer to wait until closer to the deadline to chart a course. As noted here recently, Minnesota faces almost exclusively AL Central clubs leading up to the July 30 trade deadline. If there was a 2019 Nationals-esque surge in this group, now would be the time to set it in motion.

The Twins started off taking two of three against an Indians club whose rotation is in tatters, but they’ve dropped their first two against the White Sox to fall 13.5 games out of first place in the division. For a team that needs to be nearly flawless over this pivotal stretch of divisional opponents — particularly versus Cleveland and Chicago — dropping three of the first five games isn’t a great start.

Given that this was a team most expected to contend for the Central, at the very least, it’s not at all surprising that there are several players who’d interest contenders. In fact, ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote in yesterday’s 20 Questions column that the Twins are “the team almost every contender is waiting on.” Minnesota still plays the White Sox eight times, the Tigers a whopping 11 times and the Royals three times before the trade deadline, so maybe they can pull off the macro version of last night’s staggering Angels comeback, but it’s becoming increasingly likely that this goes the direction most onlookers have expected for awhile now.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at what the Twins could do as the deadline draws nearer…

The Rentals

Michael Pineda, RHP ($10MM salary): Pineda is currently on the shelf with inflammation in his right elbow. He’s been out since June 14, but he’s slated for a rehab start in Triple-A today. Assuming there are no setbacks, Pineda would be one of the most attractive options on the rental market. He’s an established mid-rotation arm who has performed well with the Twins when he’s been able to take the mound (3.86 ERA, 3.92 FIP in 228 2/3 innings over 42 starts). Pineda did get hit with a PED suspension in 2019, although it was one of the rare instances where the league seems to have believed some of his plea of innocence, as MLB reduced his ban from 80 to 60 games. Many undoubtedly recall Pineda’s pine tar-covered hat in his Yankees days and will wonder about him in connection to the current crackdown on foreign substances. On that note, it’s worth pointing out that his spin rates were below-average in the first place and had actually decreased since signing with the Twins. We can’t know anything for sure, of course, but on paper he doesn’t look like your typical “Spider Tack” case.

Nelson Cruz, DH ($13MM): Happy 41st birthday, Nelson! The Boomstick is still swinging it as well as ever, slashing .307/.378/.585 with 18 home runs, 11 doubles and his first triple since 2018. Cruz has been 57 percent better than a league-average hitter, per wRC+, and he’s cut his strikeout rate from 25.7 percent in his first two years with Minnesota down to 19.1 percent in 2021. His market will be limited to AL clubs unless some NL GM really, really wants an interleague/World Series DH and an occasional pinch-hitter. (We’ve all learned never to rule anything out with A.J. Preller by now.) AL contenders who could use an upgrade at DH include the A’s, Blue Jays, Rays and White Sox. Of course, Cruz’s salary may be steep for the A’s and Rays, and it’s hard to imagine the Twins shipping Cruz to their top division rival.

Andrelton Simmons, SS ($10MM): Simmons hasn’t been great with the bat in Minnesota — .245/.316/.328, 81 wRC+ — but the defense looks sharp. Simmons’ defensive metrics took a tumble in both 2019 and 2020 after he suffered a Grade 3 ankle sprain and then re-sprained that ankle a second time. In 2021, he’s third among all players, regardless of position, with 12 Outs Above Average, per Statcast. He’s also notched a plus-2 mark in Defensive Runs Saved after registering minus-2 in that regard in just 265 innings last summer. The ankle appears healthy, and his range has seemingly improved as a result. If you want to upgrade your infield defense, they don’t come much better than this.

Alex Colome, RHP ($6.25MM): Colome was the Twins’ biggest offseason pickup in the bullpen, but the outstanding fortune he had on balls in play with the White Sox went up in smoke in 2021. Teams were surely wary of Colome’s .211 average on balls in play over the past two seasons with the ChiSox, which quite likely why the Twins were able to wait him out and get him for just a year and $6.25MM. Colome immediately stumbled out of the gates in Minnesota, blowing a game in his first appearance and floundering through a poor overall showing in April. He’s posted a respectable 3.60 ERA with a huge 58.1 percent grounder rate in 20 innings since, but he doesn’t look anywhere near as impressive as he did for the South Siders. Presumably, the asking price here wouldn’t be too high.

Hansel Robles, RHP ($2MM): Robles’ numbers would’ve looked better had this breakdown been written before his past two appearances, when he’s been tagged for four runs in two innings. But the right-hander is still sporting a 3.63 ERA and 48.3 percent ground-ball rate — albeit with a slightly below-average strikeout rate and a bloated 13.6 percent walk rate. He’s also experienced a rebound in fastball velocity after a dip in 2020, and he’s on a cheap enough contract that a contending club with luxury tax concerns might be particularly intrigued.

J.A. Happ, LHP ($8MM): Happ got out to a decent start in 2021, but he’s been shelled for most of his past nine appearances. His best performance in that stretch was his most recent, when he held Cleveland to a pair of runs on six hits and no walks with seven punchouts in six innings. If he can string together a few more nice outings like that, maybe some club would pick him up for a negligible return (i.e. partial salary relief) to try to stabilize the back of its rotation.

More Controllable Possibilities

Jose Berrios, RHP ($6.1MM, controllable through 2022): If the Twins were to make Berrios available, he might be the most coveted name on the market. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported recently that the Cardinals have inquired and, unsurprisingly, found the asking price to be quite high. Still, Passan writes that a growing number of executives around the game expect the Twins to be willing to seriously consider a trade. That’s likely indicative of the level of interest in Berrios, as the Twins don’t seem likely to embark on a total rebuild even if they do sell. They’d likely seek young controllable, big-league ready talent in a trade of Berrios, who boasts a 3.41 ERA and matching 3.40 FIP with a career-best 26.5 percent strikeout rate and a 6.4 percent walk rate (the second-lowest of his career). His current salary is eminently affordable, and even with an aggressive raise in arbitration, he’d still be a bargain next year. Any contending club would love to have Berrios — it’s just a matter of how strong the offers are and whether the Twins are willing to compromise their 2022 roster by trading the best pitcher they’ve developed in the past decade.

Taylor Rogers, LHP ($6MM, controllable through 2022): Rogers has put a shaky (by his standards) 2020 season behind him. Through his first 32 innings, he’s sitting on a 2.53 ERA that’s actually higher than his FIP, xFIP and SIERA. Rogers’ 32.6 percent strikeout rate is back in line with his 2019 level, and this year’s 3.9 percent walk rate is the best of his career. He has the fifth-best chase rate of any qualified reliever in MLB. As with Berrios, Rogers could play a key role for the 2022 Twins, so the offer would need to be strong. But relievers with this combination of swing-and-miss ability and command — particularly lefties — are tough to come by, so the demand will be sizable. This is also a Twins front office that generally hasn’t been keen on committing too much to any individual reliever, and Rogers’ final arbitration raise will push his salary into the $8-9MM range. A trade to a contender is very plausible. (As an aside, it’d be quite the fun story to see twin brothers co-closing games for a contending club. We’re all looking at you, Giants.)

Tyler Duffey, RHP ($2.2MM, controllable through 2022): Duffey hasn’t been the dominant setup man he was in 2019-20, but he’s controlled another season on a cheap salary and has still been effective in 2021. There’s no sugar-coating that his strikeout and walk rates from 2019-20 have dropped from 34.2 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively, to 22 percent and 12.6 percent in 2021. He’s improved both a bit over his past 15 outings, though, and only allowed two runs in that time. Overall, he has a 3.52 ERA and 3.84 FIP in 30 2/3 innings. As with Robles, if you’re a contending team with luxury tax concerns, taking a chance on a cheap reliever with a bigger track record probably has some appeal.

Caleb Thielbar, LHP ($700K, controllable through 2024): A Minnesota native and feel-good comeback story from 2020, Thielbar can be controlled another three years beyond the current campaign. That might make dealing him counterintuitive should the Twins be looking for a quick turnaround after a theoretical summer sale, but Thielbar will turn 35 this offseason and relievers are volatile in the first place. The Twins brought him back from indie ball last year, so there’s a “playing with house money” element to marketing him. He’s pitched 50 1/3 innings of 2.86 ERA ball with a 30.1 percent strikeout rate and an 8.1 percent walk rate since returning last summer. Fielding-independent metrics largely support the ERA. With multiple contenders sitting right on the luxury-tax precipice, Thielbar could be an under-the-radar but highly attractive chip for the Twins.

Longer Shots

Like Berrios, Rogers and Duffey, Byron Buxton is controlled only through the 2022 season. However, Buxton is on the injured list after an errant fastball fractured his left hand in a recent at-bat, and it’s nearly impossible to envision the Twins moving their most talented player at such a low point. The durability concerns with Buxton are understandable, and his repeated absences in 2021 have been a major factor in the Twins’ current predicament, but trading him doesn’t feel realistic.

It’s a similar story with righty Kenta Maeda, who has been hit hard this season and spent time on the injured list with an adductor strain. The Twins control him into 2023, and even if his struggles as a starter continue, his $3.25MM base salary is plenty reasonable if he’s in a bullpen or hybrid role. He doesn’t need to be the ace-caliber arm he was in 2020 to justify his contract, and the flexibility he provides the Twins moving forward carries more value than what they’d receive by selling low in a trade.

Right fielder Max Kepler and second baseman Jorge Polanco would no doubt attract interest thanks to their long-term deals, but Kepler is in the midst of his own down season and controlled affordably all the way through 2024. Polanco had a dismal three-week slump to open the year but has hit quite well (.275/.345/.483) since that time. He’s signed through 2025, so there’s little reason for the Twins to consider anything there.

Josh Donaldson is hitting .299/.382/.662 over the past month and has homered in three straight games, but he’s also 35 years old and only in the second season of a four-year, $92MM contract that affords him limited no-trade protection. It’s tough to see something coming together with all the money still owed to him.

The Twins might welcome a taker for strikeout-plagued slugger Miguel Sano, who is hitting .195/.280/.435 this season with a 37 percent punchout rate. But Sano is making $11MM this year, $9.25MM in 2022, and is also owed a $2.75MM buyout on a $14MM option for the 2023 season.

—

With a deep reserve of enticing position prospects, headlined by current big leaguers Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach, plus several key pieces under long-term control and plenty of payroll space this winter, the Twins shouldn’t be expected to completely tear the roster down. It’d make sense to target some controllable arms, however, as they’ve dealt with injuries to several of their top pitching prospects in 2021 (Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic and Matt Canterino among them).

At the end of the day, the Twins might prefer to hold out a bit longer before waving the proverbial white flag, but they’d need a historic rally to overcome a 13.5-game deficit in the division or a 12.5-game deficit in the Wild Card race at this point in the season. It increasingly feels like a matter of time before they start moving some short-term veterans, with the greater question being how aggressively they’ll sell rather than whether they’ll sell at all.

Twins Re-Sign Nelson Cruz

By Connor Byrne | February 10, 2021 at 12:30pm CDT

Feb. 10: Cruz has passed his physical, and the Twins have formally announced his one-year deal for the 2021 season.

Feb. 2: The Twins have agreed to re-sign designated hitter Nelson Cruz to a one-year contract, Jeff Passan of ESPN reports. He’ll earn $13MM on the deal, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

Cruz, long one of the majors’ top hitters, has been a member of the Brewers, Rangers, Orioles, Mariners and Twins since he started his big league career in 2005. Amazingly, despite the fact that he’s now 40 years old, Cruz’s first two seasons with the Twins from 2019-20 rank among his best. He slashed a tremendous .308/.394/.626 (163 wRC+) and amassed 57 home runs in 735 plate appearances during that span.

It’s no surprise the Twins are bringing back Cruz, though questions centering on whether a universal DH would stick around in 2021 surely delayed the re-signing. The MLBPA rejected the league’s 154-game proposal for 2021 on Monday, which could limit the DH to the American League this year, and that may have impacted Cruz’s decision.

Cruz reportedly wanted a two-year deal earlier in the offseason, but despite his excellence, that never seemed all that likely for someone his age and need for a dedicated DH spot in the lineup. MLBTR predicted he would receive a one-year, $16MM guarantee at the start of the winter, and while that proved a bit bullish, Cruz’s $13MM salary for 2021 will fall right back in line with the annual rate of his previous two seasons in Minnesota.

Cruz is the latest addition for a Twins club that was quiet for much of the offseason but has recently become more active. The Twins inked Andrelton Simmons to a one-year, $10.5MM contract and have also added lefty J.A. Happ on a one-year deal worth $8MM. The club has gravitated toward one-year arrangements this winter, which should help to preserve financial flexibility next winter when a much deeper free-agent class will present the Twins with various trajectories to retain their status as one of the top teams in their division.

Twins, Nelson Cruz Resume Negotiations

By Mark Polishuk | January 30, 2021 at 9:49pm CDT

Nelson Cruz and the Twins have recently restarted talks on a new contract for the slugger, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports. Cruz had been looking for a two-year contract, but “the possibility of a one-year accord [is] now on the table” in his current discussions with Minnesota, Hayes writes.

Despite mutual interest in a continued relationship, there hasn’t been much action between Cruz and the Twins this offseason since both sides were fairly entrenched in their positions. The team didn’t want to pay too much money and give more than one guaranteed year to a player who turns 41 in July, especially when a DH-only player like Cruz is (at the moment) limited to only American League teams. From Cruz’s perspective, he was hopeful that his market could expand to NL teams if the universal DH was implemented, and as a result was looking for a two-year contract commensurate with his continued outstanding production.

Since there isn’t yet any movement towards the NL getting the designated hitter in 2021, that could explain why Cruz’s representatives have re-engaged with the Twins, and why there have be some flexibility from Cruz’s original two-year ask. As Hayes notes, however, the two sides still have to “common ground on a salary,” which may not be simple since the Twins would ideally like to both re-sign Cruz and still have money left over to obtain more pitching. Minnesota has weighed such alternate strategies as focusing all of its available payroll space on pitching and either letting its internal options handle the DH spot, or perhaps signing a cheaper alternative to Cruz — Hayes notes that Edwin Encarnacion has been considered as a possibility.

Or, in separate direction entirely, the Twins have also “floated” the idea of another free agent signing in Marcell Ozuna. Such a move would pivot the club away from a pitching search, since Ozuna would be both pricier than Cruz and require at least a three-year contract. Ozuna is over a decade younger than Cruz, of course, and while Ozuna might become a DH-only type in the future, Minnesota could deploy him as a part-time outfielder for at least a season or two. It’s probably safe to assume that Ozuna is something of a Plan C for the Twins, just in case an agreement couldn’t be reached with either Cruz or any notable pitching targets.

Twins GM Thad Levine Discusses Offseason

By Mark Polishuk | January 26, 2021 at 4:33pm CDT

Twins general manager Thad Levine provided some general updates on his team’s winter plans during a podcast interview with SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson (audio link). With J.A. Happ signed to the rotation earlier this week, more additions could still be in the offing, since Levine feels “we’re starting to see things really de-congest” in the free agent market.

“We’re not done. We still have some flexibility, we’re still having ongoing conversations, we still see many ways we can improve this team both from a qualitative standpoint and from a depth standpoint,” Levine said.

As you might expect, Levine declined to get into detail about many names, but did note that the Twins are “staying in touch” with reliever Tyler Clippard and “are in constant conversation” with Nelson Cruz’s representatives. Interestingly, Wolfson opened the pre-interview portion of the podcast by noting that talks have been “pretty dead” between Cruz and the Twins, and it has been some time since the club presented Cruz with an offer. As Wolfson puts it, however, “all it takes is one new call” to reignite talks, as both sides are pretty familiar with each other’s positions. As has been the case all offseason, Cruz’s situation might not be resolved until there is firmer clarity on whether or not the National League will use the DH in 2021.

In terms of specific needs, the Twins are always interested in more arms (“If in doubt, add more pitching,” Levine said), particularly as pitchers re-adjust to throwing more innings in the wake of the abbreviated 2020 season. Beyond pitchers, Levine is open to all possibilities on the position-player front, due to Minnesota’s versatile roster.

“When we look at the free agent market, we do not feel limited in terms of bats that we can go recruit….We do have such amazing flexibility within our team [that] you could almost recruit a player at about any position on the field and still make it work,” the GM said.

The Twins are also exploring options on the trade market, and Levine said that technically, there aren’t any so-called untouchable players on the roster — as a general principle, the organization has to be open to anything should an opportunity arise, but obviously the Twins are “less inclined” to shop or discuss certain top-tier players and prospects. Levine also added that the Twins had received trade interest in “over 30 distinct players” within the organization over the last year, which the general manager considered a positive endorsement of Minnesota’s talent depth at both the Major League and minor league levels.

Latest On Universal DH, Expanded Playoffs

By Steve Adams | January 25, 2021 at 2:25pm CDT

The Major League Baseball Players Association rejected the league’s most recent proposal to implement a universal designated hitter, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported this morning in a larger, broad-reaching look at the issues facing the two parties. MLB offered up a universal DH and a willingness to rule in favor of two players on a pair of service time grievances, per Rosenthal, but in exchange they sought an agreement on expanded playoffs, the implementation of a pitch clock and a Spring Training trial run with electronic strike zones, among other elements.

The lack of clarity on whether there will be a DH in the National League next season continues to serve as a major impediment for teams and for some free agents alike. Nelson Cruz and Marcell Ozuna, in particular, can’t fully get a grasp on their markets until they know whether the NL will carry a DH. Meanwhile, NL teams are left to build a lineup and a roster without knowing whether they’ll have a spot for an extra hitter.

The MLBPA clearly doesn’t view the addition of a designated hitter in the National League to be as advantageous to its side as the expansion of playoffs is to the league. That’s plenty understandable, given that most clubs no longer employ expensive, dedicated designated hitters and that the expansion of playoff teams would create far more revenue for the league than for its players.

Rosenthal notes that MLB’s latest offer included an extra $30MM or so to be divided up among players — up from $50MM in 2020’s expanded field — but team-side revenues would increase on a much greater basis. Under the traditional structure (i.e. pre-2020), players’ postseason shares are tied to gate revenue, while teams collect 100 percent of television revenues. Last year, in the absence of fans, players agreed to an expanded, 16-team playoff field that saw $50MM of television revenues divided among players.

From the players’ vantage point, postseason expansion is a double-edged sword. A greater chance to play in October could very well be appealing, but there are likely some who (like many fans) worry about “watering down” the field. Of greater concern is the manner in which postseason expansion could also impact free agency. The league would surely argue that increasing the field will motivate borderline clubs to spend more on the open market, thus making it a win for the players.

However, the opposite effect could also play out as well; if the bar to reach the postseason is lowered, some clubs won’t feel as compelled to spend for an extra couple of wins to push themselves over the top. The margin for error is much greater when nearly half (or even more than half) of the teams in the game qualify for postseason play than it is when only a third of clubs do. That’s especially true when at any given point, there are a handful of teams tanking and actively doing everything they can not to win games.

At the end of the day, there’s a substantial disconnect between the extent to which the league and the union feel the universal DH will benefit players. The MLBPA knows that playoff expansion, and the associated revenues, is a massive bargaining chip to leverage in current talks and in the looming talks for a new CBA. That seems too large a concession to make in exchange for the universal DH — particularly because the commissioner’s office also wants a DH implemented in the National League.

Rob Manfred has continually sought to increase in-game action, and considering the fact that pitchers posted a combined .128/.160/.162 batting line with a 44 percent strikeout rate in 2019, swapping them out for a competent hitter would help with that goal. Of course, many traditionalists abhor the very notion of the designated hitter and are overwhelmingly against its implementation in the National League, but at this point it feels like an inevitability — whether that implementation comes in 2021 or in 2022.

As labor lawyer Eugene Freedman (who recently chatted with MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes about the CBA) points out on Twitter, the very framing of this scenario as a negotiation is somewhat misleading. The two sides already have an agreement in place in the form of the 2016-21 CBA, and the union is under no obligation to renegotiate that agreement simply because the league is now making a push for an expanded postseason format.

The MLBPA’s latest rejection doesn’t mean that the two sides won’t eventually agree to something, of course. The league is obviously very motivated to expand the upcoming postseason field and grow its postseason revenues, so perhaps they’ll put together a more enticing offer. We saw in 2020 that the two sides are willing to come back to the table at the last minute, as 2020’s expanded postseason format was agreed upon about three hours prior to the first pitch being thrown on Opening Day.

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