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Latest On Michael Fulmer, Nicholas Castellanos

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With the Tigers (40-56) having dropped 19 of 23 to fall out of contention in the AL Central, they’re setting up as sellers as the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline approaches. And right-hander Michael Fulmer and right fielder Nicholas Castellanos, two above-average players who are under affordable team control past this season, stand out among the Tigers’ potential trade chips.

The 26-year-old Fulmer is the more valuable of the two, considering he’s a proven, in-his-prime starter who’s making a near-minimum salary this season and isn’t scheduled to become a free agent until after the 2022 campaign. Fulmer, who’s due to make his first trip through arbitration over the winter, has drawn wide interest in recent weeks, as his MLBTR page shows. As you’d expect, then, he’s not someone whom the Tigers are going to give up for an insignificant return. The belief is Detroit would want “an impact bat” back in order to deal Fulmer, according to Katie Strang of The Athletic (subscription required). Unsurprisingly, Strang suggests that hitter would need to be young – “within a year or two of reaching the major leagues,” Strang writes.

With the Yankees among teams interested in Fulmer, one of their young outfielders, Clint Frazier, could perhaps be part of a trade between them and the Tigers. Frazier, 23, has the potential to serve as a quality major league hitter, though playing time has been hard to come by in New York because of a crowded outfield which features the established quartet of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner. Thanks to their presences, Frazier has totaled just 40 MLB plate appearances this year after racking up 142 a year ago. Further, with the possible exception of Gardner – who has a team option for 2019 – all of those players figure to start again for the Yankees next season. As such, the Yankees could cash in Frazier for a much-needed rotation upgrade – perhaps in the form of Fulmer.

The Tigers, for their part, are interested in both Frazier and teammate Tyler Wade, George A. King III of the New York Post reports. The 23-year-old Wade is versatile enough to play several positions, having lined up in the middle infield, at third base and at all three outfield spots in the minors. However, as with Frazier, there’s no clear path to playing time in New York for Wade – who has collected 114 big league PAs since 2017. In addition to their slew of capable outfielders, the Yankees have a set middle infield (second baseman Gleyber Torres and shortstop Didi Gregorius) and a potential long-term third baseman in Miguel Andujar (though he could be a trade chip if the Yankees upgrade at the hot corner with Manny Machado). That wealth of talent may help influence the Yankees to trade Wade, who was their 15th-ranked farmhand at Baseball America after last season.

Even though Frazier and Wade have piqued the Tigers’ interest, there’s no indication trade talks between them and the Yankees have gotten serious. In fact, New York hasn’t gone past the point of inquiring about Fulmer, per Marc Carig of The Athletic, who echoes Strang in noting the Tigers have placed a “high” asking price on him.

Castellanos, meanwhile, is “available,” Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. An above-average hitter since 2016, the 26-year-old Castellanos is now enjoying a career season in which he has slashed an outstanding .306/.362/.523 with 15 home runs in 401 PAs. But despite that strong output – which, per FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric, has been 39 percent better than league average – there’s only “mild” interest in Castellanos, Strang writes. Teams are wary of Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings, Strang continues, after he struggled at third from 2014-17 and has been subpar across nearly 800 innings this year in right. In first extensive stint as an outfielder, Castellanos has posted a minus-5.2 Ultimate Zone Rating, minus-13 Defensive Runs Saved and a league-worst minus-16 Outs Above Average mark.

Despite his defensive questions, Castellanos could emerge as a major offensive piece for a contender if such a team acquires him in the next couple weeks. At $6.05MM, his 2018 salary doesn’t break the bank, and he still has another year of arbitration eligibility remaining. The Tigers reportedly had interest in handing him a contract extension after last season. No deal has come together, though, and thanks in part to that, Castellanos may be in the final weeks of his Detroit tenure.

Central Notes: Tigers, Castellanos, Fulmer, Cards, Kang

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While the Tigers’ 36-37 record looks underwhelming, they’ve no doubt exceeded expectations so far after finishing last in the majors in 2017. But even though the team sits just 2 1/2 games behind the first-place Indians in the AL Central, general manager Al Avila isn’t adjusting his immediate or long-term plans, he explained to Jason Beck of MLB.com and other reporters Sunday. Perhaps of greater intrigue, Avila’s not ready to say whether he aims to keep either right fielder Nicholas Castellanos or right-hander Michael Fulmer for the long haul. While Avila noted that “I don’t have a mandate to trade anyone,” he added that “our intent here is to be open-minded, and if somebody offers us something that quite frankly makes us better as we move forward, then we have to really seriously consider that.”

The Tigers failed in their attempts to extend Castellanos last winter, and the 26-year-old has since hit at a career-best pace with a .310/.353/.502 line in 306 plate appearances. He’s in his second-last year of arbitration control, while Fulmer is in his final pre-arb season and isn’t scheduled to become a free agent until after the 2022 campaign. The 25-year-old is now in the midst of his third straight effective season, although it hasn’t been impressive as the previous two, as he has recorded a 4.13 ERA/4.08 FIP through 80 2/3 innings.

Now the latest on a pair of NL Central teams:

  • The Cardinals plan to activate reliever Greg Holland from the disabled list during the upcoming week, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com reports. Holland has been out since May 26 with a right hip impingement, and the results during his rehab assignment haven’t been “ideal,” manager Mike Matheny admitted. The $14MM free-agent signing has allowed four earned runs on five hits (two home runs) and posted more walks than strikeouts (five to four) in five minor league games. He has also logged horrid numbers in the majors this year, having recorded a 9.45 ERA with 10 strikeouts and 15 walks in 13 1/3 innings.
  • The Pirates reinstated infielder Jung Ho Kang from the restricted list and optioned him to Triple-A on Friday. General manager Neal Huntington spoke about Kang on Sunday (via Chris Adamski of the Pittsburgh-Tribune Review), saying “we need to see quality plate appearances” in the minors and “we need to see him doing the things he did before to show us he can be major league ready again.” If that happens, the Pirates will be happy to welcome Kang back, Huntington suggested. “We would love to have a healthy and productive Jung Ho Kang back on this major league team,” he said, “because if that player comes back, he’s going to help us win games.” Kang did indeed help Pittsburgh win games from 2015-16, but he then earned his third DUI in his native South Korea prior to the 2017 season and hasn’t played in the majors since.

AL Central Notes: Sano, Miggy, Castellanos, Covey

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The Twins’ demotion of Miguel Sano to the minors yesterday came as a surprise to many, but the slugger seems to be taking the move in stride, as Brian Murphy of the St. Paul Pioneer Press writes. “It’s the decision they take and I take too,” said Sano of the demotion. “I’m not mad. They gave me an opportunity. No reason I can get mad. … I’m going to take pride of going down there and working hard so I can come back and be better.” Sano said he didn’t want to blame his struggles on his recent injury history, though it’s worth noting that he required offseason surgery to repair a stress reaction in his shin and has also missed time in 2018 due to a hamstring injury. Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey said that improving Sano’s conditioning, specifically in his lower half, is part of the move, though the organization’s greater hope is to try to give Sano a fresh start in an environment where he can focus in on some areas for improvement identified by hitting coach James Rowson and others.

Here’s more from the AL Central…

  • The Tigers have no plans to move Nicholas Castellanos in the wake of Miguel Cabrera’s season-ending injury, manager Ron Gardenhire told reporters this week (Twitter link via Jason Beck of MLB.com). Castellanos ranks among the game’s worst defenders in the outfield according to each of Defensive Runs Saved (-11), Ultimate Zone Rating (-2) and Statcast’s Outs Above Average (-10). However, the Tigers organization remains committed to improving Castellanos’ work in right, it seems. “Castellanos is our right fielder,” Gardenhire said. “We’re trying to make him a right fielder and he’s still working at it, and he’s working really hard.”
  • Looking further at Cabrera’s injury, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports that the future Hall of Famer is expected to be able to return to baseball activities in about six months, which should leave him with ample time to prepare for Spring Training. He’ll begin his rehab work in Detroit, rather than at the team’s spring complex in Florida, which will allow him to be closer to his teammates. Cabrera is taking the injury as well as can be expected, Tigers trainer Doug Teter tells Woodbery. In a second column, however, Woodbery writes that the organization and its fans may need to concede that their former iron man, who averaged 155 games per season and made 11 All-Star teams from 2004-16, is beginning to break down and enter a decline over the final few years of his career. There’s no escaping his albatross contract, though Woodbery rightly notes that it’s also not likely to serve as a major hindrance to the club anytime soon. The Tigers are well south of the luxury tax, and given their rebuilding status, they’re not likely to spend aggressively in the next couple of winters anyhow.
  • Right-hander Dylan Covey has emerged as a surprise contributor in the rotation for the White Sox just months after clearing waivers and being outrighted, writes James Fegan of The Athletic (subscription required). Covey has had unsustainable good fortune in terms of home runs, as he’s yet to allow one this season after being perhaps the most homer-prone pitcher in the Majors last season. But he’s also working with an improved ground-ball rate, better control and more strikeouts as he’s significantly upped the usage of his two-seamer to great effect. Covey has only made six starts at the big league level thus far, but he’s impressed to the point that he’ll be afforded a long leash in proving that he is capable of holding down a long-term spot in the rotation. Considering the fact that the ChiSox acquired Covey in the 2016 Rule 5 Draft (out of the Athletics organization), even if he settles in as a useful back-of-the-rotation starter it’d be a nice bonus.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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The deadline for MLB teams to exchange salary arbitration figures with their arbitration-eligible players is today at 1pm ET. As such, there will be a veritable flood of arb agreements piling up in the next few hours — especially in light of a more universal approach to the “file and trial” method for teams. (That is to say, those teams will no longer negotiate one-year deals after arb figures are exchanged and will instead head to a hearing with those players, barring an agreemenr on a multi-year deal.)

Note that you can keep an eye on all of today’s deals using MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Tracker, which can be filtered to show only the results of the team you follow and is also sortable by service time and dollar value of the agreement. All projections that are referenced come from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s annual compilation of projected arbitration salarie

American League West

  • The Astros and Evan Gattis agreed to a $6.7MM deal for 2018, per FanRag’s Robert Murray (Twitter link). A free agent next season, Gattis lands within $100K of his $6.6MM projection. The club also has deals (for values unknown) with starters Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers Jr., and Brad Peacock, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle tweets.
  • The Rangers agreed to a $1.05MM deal with infielder Jurickson Profar, tweets Murray. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star Telegram, meanwhile, tweets that lefty Jake Diekman landed a $2.7125MM deal and righty Keone Kela will earn $1.2MM. Profar had been projected at $1.1MM and is controllable another three seasons. Diekman, a free agent next winter, was projected at $2.8MM. And Kela, still controlled for three more years, matched his $1.2MM projection on the dot.
  • The Athletics and closer Blake Treinen agreed to a $2.15MM deal for next year, tweets Murray. The A’s can control Treinen for another three years. He was projected at $2.3MM. Shortstop Marcus Semien has settled for $3.125MM, Heyman tweets; his $3.2MM projection was nearly spot-on. Oakland has announced that it has avoided arbitration with Liam Hendriks and Josh Phegley as well, but their salaries have yet to be reported.
  • The Angels have a one-year, $7.3MM agreement in place with right-hander Garrett Richards, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (Twitter link). Richards, a free agent next offseason, tops his $7MM projection by a margin of $300K. The Halos have also avoided arb with first baseman C.J. Cron ($2.3MM) and left-hander Tyler Skaggs ($1.875MM), tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Cron’s total falls a ways shy of his $2.8MM projection, while Skaggs comes in just $25K south of his $1.9MM projection. Both are controllable through the 2020 season. Lastly, Murray tweets that Matt Shoemaker agreed to a $4.125MM deal. He’s controlled through 2020 and projected at $4.4MM. Fletcher also tweets that the club has agreed with righty J.C. Ramirez ($1.9MM salary vs. $2.6MM projection) and lefty Jose Alvarez ($1.05MM salary vs. $1.1MM projection). Finally, righty Cam Bedrosian has agreed at $1.1MM, Flecher tweets, which represents a payday close to his projection of $1.2MM.
  • Left-hander James Paxton will earn $4.9MM with the Mariners in 2018, tweets Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Murray tweets that the Mariners and David Phelps agreed to a $5.55MM deal. Paxton, controlled through 2020, projected to earn $5.6MM, while Phelps was pegged at $5.8MM. He’s a free agent next winter. Righty Erasmo Ramirez took a $4.2MM deal, MLB.com’s Greg Johns reports. That’s half a million shy of what the model suggested. Fellow right-hander Nick Vincent also has an agreement, but the terms aren’t yet known.

American League Central

  • New lefty Luis Avilan has agreed to a $2.45MM deal with the White Sox, Chris Kuc of the Chicago Tribune reports via Twitter. The recent trade acquisition came with a projected $2.3MM price tag. Fellow southpaw Carlos Rodon will receive $2.3MM, a bit of a bump over the $2MM he projected to receive. Also, utilityman Leury Garcia gets $1.175MM, which is just $25K short of his projected value.
  • The Royals and righty Nate Karns agreed to a $1.375MM deal for 2018, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports (on Twitter). That lands within $25K of his $1.4MM projection for the coming season. Kansas City controls Karns through 2020. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports (via Twitter) that Kelvin Herrera will earn $7.9375MM in 2018, landing a bit shy of his $8.3MM projection. Herrera is a free agent next winter.
  • The Indians have a $5MM agreement with righty Danny Salazar, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets. He had projected to earn just $200K more, this falls right in line with expectations. Cleveland also agreed with Lonnie Chisenhall on a $5.5875MM deal, tweets Nightengale. The third baseman-turned-outfielder, who was projected to earn $5.8MM, will be a free agent following the 2018 season.
  • Trevor May has a $650K agreement with the Twins for the 2018 season, according to Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. May, who missed the entire season due to Tommy John surgery (and did some writing for MLBTR during his rehab process), had been projected at $600K. The Twins also agreed to a $1MM deal with infielder Ehire Adrianza, per La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune. Meanwhile, righty Ryan Pressly has agreed to a $1.6MM deal, tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN. Both deals are identical matches with their projections. Adrianza has three years of team control remaining, while Pressly has two. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that outfielder Robbie Grossman settled at $2MM, leaving him $400K shy of his projection. Grossman is controlled for another three seasons.
  • Tigers third baseman/outfielder Nick Castellanos will earn $6.05MM, per Heyman (via Twitter). He had projected at a much heftier $7.6MM in his second-to-last season of arb eligibility. MLB.com’s Jason Beck reports (Twitter links) that the Tigers and right-handed reliever Alex Wilson settled at $1.925MM, while fellow righty Shane Greene will earn $1.95MM. Wilson was projected to earn $2.1MM, while Greene was at $1.7MM. Wilson is controlled through 2019, while Greene is under control through 2020.

American League East

  • The Yankees have knocked out some of their biggest arb cases, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (Twitter links). Shortstop Didi Gregorius receives $8.25MM and righty Sonny Gray checks in at $6.5MM. The former had projected to earn $9.0MM while the algorithm was just $100K high on the latter.Backstop Austin Romine will earn $1.1MM, Heyman also tweets, which is also $100K below the projection. Righty Adam Warren and the Yankees have a $3.315MM deal, per Murray (Twitter link). This is Warren’s final season of eligibility before hitting the open market next winter. He’d been projected at $3.1MM. Meanwhile, fellow right-hander Dellin Betances has agreed to a $5.1MM deal, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). That’s just $100K more than Betances had sought last year, when he took his case to a hearing that he ultimately lost. But it’s quite a bit more than the $4.4MM he projected to receive after a subpar season in which he played at a $3MM salary.
  • The Red Sox have agreed to pay $8.5MM to southpaw Drew Pomeranz, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). That’s short of the $9.1MM that had been projected after Pomeranz turned in a productive 2017 season. Boston and Jackie Bradley Jr. settled at $6.1MM, tweets Murray. That’s a bit north of the $5.9MM at which he’d been projected for the upcoming season. Bradley Jr., a Super Two player, has another three seasons of club control remaining. Nightengale tweets that righty Joe Kelly ($3.6MM projection) agreed to a $3.825MM deal. He’ll be a free agent next winter. Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez ($2.375MM salary vs. $2.7MM projection) and righty Brandon Workman ($835K salary vs. $900K projection) are two other Sox hurlers that have agreed to terms, Speier reports (Twitter links). On the position player side, catcher Sandy Leon falls a bit under his projection $1.95MM (via Speier, on Twitter) while utilityman Brock Holt just beats expectations at $2.225MM (per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, on Twitter). The team also agreed with shortstop Xander Bogaerts for $7.05MM, Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston tweets, which comes in a bit shy of his $7.6MM projection. Boston also announced agreement with backstop Christian Vazquez, who’ll earn $1.425MM, per MLB.com’s Ian Browne (via Twitter). That’s just under the projection of $1.5MM.
  • The Blue Jays and righty Aaron Sanchez agreed to a $2.7MM deal for 2018, according to Nightengale (Twitter link). That crushes his $1.9MM projection, which was likely suppressed due Sanchez’s lack of innings (just 36) in 2017. He’s under Jays control through 2020. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, meanwhile, tweets that second baseman Devon Travis will make $1.45MM next year, falling a bit shy of his $1.7MM forecast. Other Toronto players agreeing to terms include Kevin Pillar ($3.25MM vs. $4.0MM projection) and Dominic Leone ($1.085MM vs. $1.2MM projection), MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm tweets.
  • The Rays and closer Alex Colome settled at $5.3M, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (on Twitter). He’d been projected at $5.5MM and is controllable for three more years. They also settled at $5.95MM with outfielder/DH Corey Dickerson ($6.4MM projection) and $4.5MM with infielder Brad Miller ($4.4MM projection), per Murray (all Twitter links). Steven Souza, according to Murray will earn $3.55MM, placing him right in line with his $3.6MM projection. Dickerson and Miller are controlled through 2019. Souza is controlled through 2020.

AL Rumors: Jays, Lynn, Rangers, Cashner, Tigers, Orioles, Machado

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The Blue Jays have shown at least some offseason interest in free agent right-hander Lance Lynn and center fielder Jarrod Dyson, according to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, who also lists the previously reported Lorenzo Cain and Alex Cobb. Whether they add any of those players, other free agents or go the trade route, the Blue Jays still have the payroll flexibility to make notable moves, Davidi explains. And general manager Ross Atkins suggested to Davidi and other reporters Saturday that the Jays aren’t yet satisfied with their their outfield or starting pitching, adding that they “could go several directions” for help. “We feel like we have one of the better systems in baseball, it’s not the best, we still have work to do, we feel that we’re probably in the top third, but we have plenty of depth to protect us throughout the major-league season, to provide options for us throughout the major-league season and to trade from,” Atkins said. “Whether that’s a bigger deal or a smaller deal, we’ll see, but we are now in a position where we have that option.”

More on a few other American League teams:

  • The Rangers are still in touch with free agent right-hander Andrew Cashner, who’s interested in re-signing with the team, TR Sullivan of MLB.com reports. After Cashner joined the Rangers on a $10MM guarantee last winter, the Texas native proceeded to toss 166 2/3 innings of 3.40 ERA ball, but that came with the majors’ worst K/BB ratio among qualified starters. Cashner, 31, is reportedly seeking a three-year contract this time around. If the Rangers ultimately do bring Cashner back, he’d follow Doug Fister, Mike Minor and Matt Moore as the fourth established rotation piece to latch on with them this winter (though Minor hasn’t started a big league game since 2014).
  • Earlier this week, Tigers general manager Al Avila discussed the futures of shortstop Jose Iglesias, third baseman/outfielder Nicholas Castellanos and catcher James McCann with Dan Dickerson and Pat Caputo on 97.1’s The Ticket (via Katie Strang of The Athletic; subscription required and strongly recommended). Avila expects Iglesias to be the Tigers’ Opening Day shortstop, but he acknowledged that the 28-year-old’s time with the franchise is likely to conclude in the near future. Iglesias “may well be traded at the trade deadline, if not sooner, depending on the needs that teams have out there for a shortstop,” said Avila. Strang goes on to break down potential replacements within the organization for Iglesias, who’s in his last year of arbitration eligibility (he’ll make a projected $5.6MM). Castellanos is in his penultimate year of arb control, meanwhile, and he’ll collect around $7.6MM. Although the Tigers have come up short in extending Castellanos, “he might be a guy that we stick with,” commented Avila, who noted that the soon-to-be 26-year-old’s stock would increase “quite a bit” if he were to make a successful transition to the outfield.  McCann is under control for the next three years, but Avila suggested that he could be a trade candidate, per Strang. (In case you missed it, MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently examined Iglesias, Castellanos, McCann and the rest of Detroit’s potential trade chips.)
  • The Diamondbacks “doubled back with renewed interest” in Orioles infielder Manny Machado, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. A deal is not imminent, though, as Kubatko notes that nobody has sent the pitching-needy Orioles an offer good enough to convince them to move Machado. As of December, Arizona reportedly wasn’t willing to part with third baseman Jake Lamb in a Machado package.

Cafardo’s Latest: Yelich, Rangers, Jays, Cain, BoSox, JDM, Castellanos

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The Blue Jays and Rangers “appear” to be among teams with interest in Marlins center fielder Christian Yelich, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Yelich has landed on several clubs’ radars this offseason, owing to his impressive track record, long-term affordability and age (26), but he may end up sticking with the Marlins. Miami understandably wants an enormous return for Yelich, presumably in the form of prospects, so it’s worth noting that Toronto is ninth and Texas 21st in Baseball America’s most recent farm system rankings (subscription required and recommended).

More from Cafardo on Toronto and a couple other clubs:

  • The Blue Jays are also interested in free agent center fielder Lorenzo Cain, though they’d move him to right field, per Cafardo. While Cain does have some experience in right, he has spent the vast majority of his career in center and thrived there. Toronto has an excellent center fielder in Kevin Pillar, who’d form two-thirds of a great defensive outfield with Cain, but whether the latter would be willing to give up his typical position is unclear.
  • Unlike Pillar and Cain, free agent outfielder J.D. Martinez is not a defensive asset. As such, the Red Sox will mostly use Martinez as a designated hitter if they sign him, Cafardo relays. With three better defensive outfielders in the fold in Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi, deploying the big-hitting Martinez at DH would be logical. There are a couple potential complications, however, with Martinez reportedly preferring to remain an outfielder and the presence of DH Hanley Ramirez in Boston. The Sox may attempt to trade Ramirez if they add Martinez, though it could be difficult to find a taker; after all, Ramirez is expensive ($22MM in 2018 and, if he reaches 497 plate appearances this year and then passes a physical, another $22MM in 2019), aging (34) and coming off a poor season.
  • The rebuilding Tigers have gotten inquiries about third baseman/outfielder Nicholas Castellanos from “a few teams,” Cafardo writes. Castellanos is under control for the next two years, including at a projected $7.6MM in 2018. The Tigers tried earlier this offseason to lock him up for the long haul with an extension, but those talks didn’t lead to a deal. Castellanos, who will turn 26 in March, was a bright spot for Detroit’s offense last season. Not only did he slash .272/.320/.490 with 26 home runs in 665 PAs, but Castellanos was something of a Statcast darling, evidenced by a .366 xwoBA (compared to a .347 wOBA) and the majors’ 10th-most barrels.

AL Notes: Castellanos, Yankees, Orioles, Twins

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The Tigers pursued an extension with outfielder Nicholas Castellanos “to no avail” following the 2017 season, MLB.com’s Jason Beck reports. The 25-year-old slugger (26 in March) posted a very solid .272/.320/.490 batting line in a breakout campaign at the plate and gave the Tigers room for further optimism; Castellanos ranked fifth in the Majors in hard-contact rate (among qualified hitters), and Statcast credited him for the 10th-highest number of barreled balls in MLB. He has a projected arbitration salary of $7.6MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and is still under club control for another two seasons. Defensive question marks abound with Castellanos, as he’s rated poorly both at third base and in right field, but there’s plenty of value in his bat. The inability to come to terms on an extension only furthers the chance that the rebuilding Tigers trade Castellanos before he reaches free agency.

A few more notes from around the AL…

  • MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch writes that the Yankees seem likely to bring in an infield option from outside the organization to man either second base or third base in 2018. Trades of Starlin Castro and Chase Headley freed those two spots up, and while Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar give the Yanks a pair of high-upside assets at those positions, some additional certainty and depth in a season with lofty expectations seems plenty reasonable. Per Hoch, the Yankees have been in touch with Todd Frazier, and it’s also possible that they explore a reunion with versatile Eduardo Nunez.
  • The Orioles have historically been willing to wait out the free-agent market in search of bargains late in the winter, but they’ll have more company than usual in that regard this year, writes Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun. Baltimore GM Dan Duquette and his staff have had varying degrees of success in that regard, striking gold with a February signing of Nelson Cruz but also issuing regrettable deals to Yovani Gallardo and Ubaldo Jimenez. This time around, the Orioles will be looking to fill multiple spots in their rotation in addition to a left-handed bat. But, with just a handful of the top MLB free agents having agreed to deals, Baltimore’s typically patient approach may not be as fruitful as it has in the past.
  • Though they’ve explored various trade scenarios, the Twins are likelier to address their rotation on the free-agent market, MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger writes in his latest Twins Inbox piece. Minnesota has a blank payroll slate beyond the 2019 season, and Bollinger suggests that the front office would rather use those financial resources than deplete the farm system in order to add to the rotation. The Twins have been prominently mentioned as a possible landing spot for Yu Darvish, though it stands to reason that they’ve also likely looked into Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn as well.

AL Notes: Mariners, Tigers, Castellanos, Yanks, Jays, Donaldson, Rays

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The Mariners’ spirited attempt to sign Shohei Ohtani ended in heartbreak when the Japanese ace/slugger signed with the division-rival Angels last week. Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto acknowledged that he was disappointed in the outcome when speaking about Ohtani’s decision Monday. He was gracious in defeat, though, telling Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and other reporters that he’s “happy for” Ohtani and expects he’ll be “a great fit” in Anaheim.

With the Ohtani dream dead, the Mariners have been monitoring the free agent market for pitching, Dipoto revealed. “We have a sense that the market is starting to pick up. I feel like we are in a deal making zone,” he said (Twitter links here). Along with searching for pitching, Dipoto is looking to trade some of the international bonus pool money the Mariners acquired when they were trying to increase their chances to sign Ohtani, Greg Johns of MLB.com tweets. Dipoto also suggested that there won’t be anymore big additions to a Mariners position player group that just landed Dee Gordon. Instead, any new pickups are likely to come via waivers, minor league deals or the Rule 5 draft.

More from the American League:

  • The Tigers engaged in contract extension talks with outfielder/third baseman Nicholas Castellanos’ agent after the season, but they haven’t had any discussions since, general manager Al Avila told reporters Monday. It looks unlikely the two sides will reach an agreement, per Jason Beck of MLB.com (Twitter link). As things stand, the soon-to-be 26-year-old Castellanos is controllable for just two more seasons. The former top prospect will make a projected $7.6MM in arbitration in 2018, when he’ll try for a third straight above-average offensive showing. Castellanos, who slugged a career-best 26 home runs last season, has batted .277/.325/.493 with 44 HRs in 1,112 plate appearances since 2016.
  • The Yankees expressed interest in free agent Carlos Santana after Ohtani turned them down and before they acquired Giancarlo Stanton, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports (Twitter link). Now, Stanton’s presence removes any need for the Yanks to add another hitter, meaning he won’t end up with them, as Davidoff notes.
  • Even without Stanton, New York finished 15 games ahead of division-rival Toronto in 2017. Nevertheless, Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins iterated Monday that they’re aiming to rebound, not rebuild, next season. Atkins told reporters, including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, that he’s focused on putting together the “best possible team.” That would likely mean retaining star third baseman Josh Donaldson as he enters a contract year, which the Jays seem inclined to do. “It’s hard to imagine making (the Jays) better without Josh,” Atkins noted (Twitter link).
  • On the other hand, the Stanton deal may hasten a rebuild for the Rays, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. The Rays would be wise to take that route, Topkin posits, thanks in part to the fact that New York and Boston are in their division. Additionally, the payroll-challenged club already looked primed to trade notable veterans even before the Yankees got Stanton. On the heels of a fourth straight sub-.500 season, the Rays will also lose righty Alex Cobb to free agency, which will make it all the more difficult for them to compete in the near term, Topkin points out.

Poll: Can The Tigers Move Nicholas Castellanos?

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While the Tigers weren’t considered favorites to win the AL Central coming into 2017, they certainly didn’t appear to be candidates to own the worst record in baseball. But slow starts from Justin Verlander and Ian Kinsler, along with the continued decline of other highly-paid veterans such as Miguel Cabrera, Jordan Zimmerman, Victor Martinez and Francisco Rodriguez, led Detroit to their first losing record at the All-Star break since 2010.

By the July 31st trade deadline, the organization had already shipped catcher Alex Avila and reliever Justin Wilson to the Cubs in exchange for younger players. On the final day of August, they doubled down on their rebuild by moving the large contracts of Verlander and outfielder Justin Upton in exchange for minor leaguers.

One player who survived the fire sale, despite clearing revocable trade waivers, was former top prospect Nicholas Castellanos.

Formerly a third baseman, Castellanos was moved to right field amid concerns about his glove at the hot corner. But while his performance at third was subpar, his work in right field this year was a disaster. In a 173-inning sample, Castellanos racked up -7 defensive runs saved while checking in with a catastrophic -80.5 runs per 150 games by measure of Ultimate Zone Rating. Some of this is the result of lack of experience in the outfield. It’s easy to imagine him improving his glove work to some extent with more training and playing time, but the transition hasn’t exactly been a smooth one to this point.

The real value, of course, lies in his bat. Castellanos smacked 44 homers to go along with a .277/.325/.493 slash line across 1112 plate appearances since the start of 2016, good for a 114 wRC+ during that span. Perhaps his most impressive skill has been his ability to make hard contact; his hard-contact rate sits at an impressive 40.4% over the past two seasons, and his 89.2 MPH average exit velocity during that time ranks 67th among major league hitters who’ve made contact in at least 500 at-bats. Even with subpar defense, his offensive output made him worth close to two full wins above replacement in 2017.

As Jon Heyman of Fan Rag noted when he first broke the news, it’s surprising that Castellanos was never claimed on trade waivers. He only made $3MM this season, and can be controlled for two more years through arbitration. There’s a raise coming, but it shouldn’t be too onerous. Lucas Duda earned a $2.525MM bump after hitting 27 homers and knocking in 73 runs across 554 plate appearances in 2015. Castellanos could probably exceed that increase — he hit 26 homers in 2017, but amassed over 100 more plate appearances and accumulated 28 more RBI than did Duda– though it suggests a reasonable ballpark figure.

Even if Castellanos projects only as a 2-WAR player, he might well cost less than $6MM in 2018 and can be controlled in 2019 as well. It seems as though there is some excess value in his contract, and the Tigers aren’t likely to be contenders over the next two seasons. With all this in mind, it seems probable that the Tigers will try to shop him his offseason.

The tough part about imagining a Castellanos trade, even if you are relatively bullish on his outlook, is that teams don’t often get much in return for league-average position players with this amount of control and at this general price point. When the Nationals traded Yunel Escobar to the Angels before the 2016 season, he had one year and $7MM left on his contract, as well as a $7MM option for 2017. They received Trevor Gott in return, a fireballing reliever who was believed to have some upside but hasn’t yet panned out. The Rockies got a chance to take a shot on bouncebacks from Brandon Barnes and Jordan Lyles when they sent Dexter Fowler to the Astros; both players were thought to have some upside, but neither worked out. Most recently, the Dodgers coughed up a highly valued prospect in Jose De Leon in order to net Logan Forsythe from the Rays prior to the 2017 season, though De Leon has been hurt all year.

The market for Castellanos is somewhat cloudy. It’s unclear whether teams will view him as a third baseman or an outfield project. His 2017 performance also shows him to be far better against left-handed pitching (.939 OPS, 16% K rate) than right-handers (.769 OPS, 23% K rate). That, combined with his poor defense, may lead some teams to view him as more of a platoon hitter than a regular, which would certainly limit what type of prospects they’d be willing to give up. That being said, there are a few potential landing spots for Castellanos.

  • The Indians could be in the market for a right-handed hitting outfielder if Brandon Guyer can’t turn things around at the plate, or if they’re unable to retain veteran Austin Jackson.
  • The Blue Jays have made it clear that they plan to try and win in 2018, so they could potentially go after Castellanos if they decide to move on from struggling veteran Jose Bautista, though they could opt to give top prospect Anthony Alford a shot.
  • With Yasiel Puig falling out of favor once again, the Dodgers could conceivably become a potential suitor. Their outfield is full of question marks, and they’d be one candidate to pay Castellanos’s salary even if they only plan to use him in a platoon role.
  • If they can’t re-sign slugging phenom J.D. Martinez, the Diamondbacks could potentially look at acquiring Castellanos as a cheaper right field alternative. The D-backs’ payroll is already set to pay a combined $58.6MM to Zack Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt and Yasmany Tomas in 2018, and they’ll also be paying significant amounts to several arb-eligible players.
  • Similarly, the Angels could look to trade for Castellanos as a replacement if they don’t end up retaining Justin Upton, who seems likely to exercise the opt-out clause in his contract at the end of the 2017 season.
  • With the Braves nearing the end of their rebuilding process, they have their sights set on contending in 2018 and 2019. If they decide to move on from Rio Ruiz, Castellanos could man third base in Atlanta for the next two years.

Further complicating the market for Castellanos as a third baseman is the glut of similar right-handed hitting free agents at that position. Righties Yunel Escobar, Todd Frazier and Eduardo Nunez all offer similar production from the position, with Mike Moustakas offering a premium option who bats from the left side of the plate. The free agent market for outfielders is just as competitive. J.D. Martinez is a clear superior option as far as righty-hitting corner outfielders, though not all teams will be able to afford the type of contract he’s likely to command. Lorenzo Cain is a far better player, though he’ll obviously be hired as a center fielder and therefore will compete in a different market. Austin Jackson, Melky Cabrera, Colby Rasmus, Carlos Gomez and Carlos Gonzalez all offer production at (or close to) Castellanos’ level, although each has his own set of question marks. Jay Bruce offers similar production for teams interested in a lefty slugger.

So it seems that the biggest roadblock in trying to move Castellanos is that players like him aren’t in short supply. If the free agent dominoes fall too quickly, the Tigers might find themselves unable to get even a modest prospect return, and could opt to simply wait until the trade deadline to see if his market improves. In any case, it’s hard to imagine Detroit getting a top 100 prospect in return for their young slugger unless they opt to package him with another asset.

The Tigers are in a really tough position with Castellanos. They have no great need for his services during their rebuilding years, and could benefit by shedding his $14MM price tag through 2019. Unfortunately, the plethora of alternatives on the free agent market means that the Tigers have little to no leverage in negotiations with other teams. He’s got too much value to simply unload for a garden-variety minor leaguer, but if Detroit can’t trade him this offseason or at the 2018 trade deadline, they could end up in the same situation next year at this time. At that point, his trade value will be even lower than it is now. Whether or not Castellanos will be in a Tigers uniform come April is anybody’s guess.

What do you think will happen? Will the Tigers be able to trade Nicholas Castellanos?

(Poll link for app users)

Heyman’s Latest: Britton, Tigers, Tanaka, CC, Darvish, Holland, Moore

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The trade that would have sent Zach Britton from the Orioles to the Astros included third baseman Colin Moran, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, but medical issues ultimately sank the deal. Moran was already on the disabled list after having suffered a concussion and a facial fracture when he fouled a ball off his face in mid-July, per Heyman, but there were also medical issues with one of the prospects that would have gone to Baltimore. That issue was found as the O’s sifted through medical paperwork, and though Houston tried to resurrect the deal in the final hours leading up to the non-waiver deadline, the two sides were ultimately unable to find a common ground. None of Kyle Tucker, Derek Fisher, Francis Martes, Forrest Whitley or Yordan Alvarez were offered in either iteration of the deal, he adds.

Some highlights from Heyman’s weekly American League and National League notes columns…

  • The Tigers are “disappointed” in Nick Castellanos’ defense at third base once again, as he’s taken a step back in that regard after seemingly making improvements in 2016. Heyman suggests that Castellanos may be available in trades this winter, and since he’s already cleared waivers, he could technically be moved anytime moving forward. (He wouldn’t be eligible for a postseason roster if he’s traded after today.) Heyman also notes that Ian Kinsler’s preference may be to play for a contender, and the Tigers will again field offers on him this winter after making an easy call to exercise his $10MM option.
  • The Yankees aren’t currently planning on “chasing” Masahiro Tanaka if he opts out of the remaining three years on his deal, with one source telling Heyman that the Yanks wouldn’t offer anything beyond the $67MM he’s still guaranteed. Tanaka has a 3.79 ERA with 116-to-19 K/BB ratio in 99 2/3 innings since May 26 and a 3.32 ERA with 10.3 K/9 against 1.4 BB/9 since the calendar flipped to July. Heyman also notes that the Yankees could also be interested in retaining left-hander CC Sabathia on a one-year deal this offseason.
  • Prior to trading Yu Darvish to the Dodgers, the Rangers “made clear” that they were “completely willing” to trade Darvish to the Astros. The Rangers, according to Heyman, asked for top-tier prospects from their division rivals, however, before ultimately landing on a package comprised largely of high-ceiling players in A-ball. Houston offered currently suspended (PEDs) top prospect David Paulino in a deal, and the two sides apparently never got especially close to reaching an agreement.
  • Even with his recent struggles, Rockies closer Greg Holland still plans to decline his $15MM player option at season’s end in order to retest the free agent market. Holland looked unhittable for the season’s first two months before showing some red flags in June and July (as Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron recently pointed out). Those troublesome trends have caught up to Holland in August, as he’s been torched for 14 runs on 14 hits (four homers) and six walks with eight strikeouts in 9 1/3 innings this month.
  • Left-hander Matt Moore “sailed through” revocable trade waivers when the Giants put him through that process this month, per Heyman. Whether the Giants would want to or even be able to trade Moore is another question, but the possibility will be open through season’s end. Moore would have to be traded to a new team today in order to be eligible for that club’s postseason roster, though from a purely speculative standpoint, a non-contending club could look to buy low on Moore with an eye toward the 2018 campaign. The 28-year-old has struggled through the worst full season of his career in 2017, logging a dreadful 5.49 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 37.4 percent ground-ball rate in 154 innings of work. He’s been somewhat better since the All-Star break, but Moore’s stock is still at a low point. He has a $9MM option for the 2018 season and a $10MM option for 2019.
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