Poll: The Cardinals’ Center Field Battle
As the Cardinals look to embrace a youth movement in John Mozeliak’s final year at the helm of the club, their inability to trade Nolan Arenado this winter has caused some complications. With Arenado ticketed for everyday playing time at third base, St. Louis now has five players for three spots in the lineup: second base, left field, and center field. While none of those five players can play all three of those positions, the versatility of Brendan Donovan to play either second base or left field connects the decisions made in the outfield to those at the keystone.
Donovan and Lars Nootbaar are both more or less guaranteed everyday playing time with the Cardinals, and one of them figures to be the club’s starting left fielder. Should Donovan start in left field, it would push Nootbaar to center, and that would open up second base for Nolan Gorman, who would have taken over for Arenado if the veteran were traded. Meanwhile, starting Nootbaar in left would push Donovan back onto the infield, and in doing so would open up center field for one of Michael Siani or Victor Scott II.
Scott and Siani are very similar players. Siani is a little over a year older than Scott, headed into his age-25 season while Scott has only just turned 24, and the pair combined for nearly 85% of the club’s innings in center field last year. Both are left-handed hitters who have struggled to hit in the majors so far, but are very well-regarded for their speed and defense nonetheless.
Of the two, Siani has the edge in terms of big league experience. After brief stints in the majors with the Reds and Cardinals in 2022 and ’23, Siani enjoyed his first extended taste of big league action last year when he appeared in 124 games for St. Louis and stepped up to the plate 334 times. He hit a paltry .228/.285/.285 in that time, good for a 64 wRC+ that was 36% worse than the league average hitter and the eighth-lowest slash line among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances. With that being said, Siani went an excellent 20-for-23 on the basepaths while posting +16 Outs Above Average, a 99th percentile figure that placed him behind only Nationals defensive standout Jacob Young among outfielders.
Unfortunately, there’s little in Siani’s profile that suggests a significantly higher offensive ceiling than he demonstrated in 2024. His actual batting average and slugging percentage both outstripped his expected numbers in those categories by more than 20 points last year, and his .322 BABIP, while not necessarily unsustainable due to his excellent speed, is already at the higher end of the expected range for a regular player. That limited offensive ceiling could open the door for Scott, a consensus top-100 prospect entering last season who has previously shown flashes of offensive potential in the minor leagues. Scott’s .179/.219/.283 (40 wRC+) slash line in 53 games for the Cardinals last year was actually worse than that of Siani, though his peripheral and expected numbers suggest the pair’s underlying performance was roughly the same.
Most notably, Scott flashed more power potential than Siani with a 5.7% barrel rate during his time in the majors last year that more than doubled Siani’s 2.3% figure. Scott also had 35 hard-hit batted balls to Siani’s 43 despite being afforded less than half of the playing time. All of that, as well as Scott’s excellent .323/.373/.450 slash line at the Double-A level in 2023, suggests that Scott has a higher offensive ceiling than Siani and could be a more impactful all-around player if given the opportunity. Scott is also a potential game changer on the basepaths, having stolen an unbelievable 94 bases between High-A and Double-A in 2023 and having followed that up with 35 steals between Triple-A and the majors last year.
Scott grades out extremely well in center field on scouting reports and posted solid (+3 OAA) numbers in defensive metrics with relatively minimal playing time last year, but he would need improve those numbers substantially to offer the sort of league-leading defense Siani has shown himself to be capable of. What’s more, Scott’s bat took a concerning step backwards even at Triple-A last year, when he slashed just .210/.294/.303 in 82 games. That lackluster showing could suggest that Scott simply isn’t ready for another jump to the major leagues, particularly given that the gap between MLB and Triple-A is even bigger than that between the Triple- and Double-A levels.
Of course, another viable option would be simply placing Nootbaar in center field. An above-average big league hitter in each of his four MLB seasons so far, Nootbaar is obviously the most talented hitter of the bunch but will be in the lineup in some capacity regardless of whether he’s playing center field or not. Playing Nootbaar in center, then, would actually open up playing time for Gorman. The club’s first-rounder back in 2018, Gorman was a league average bat during his rookie season in 2022 before taking a big step forward the following year, slashing .236/.328/.478 with 27 homers and a 118 wRC+ in 119 games that year. Unfortunately, things fell apart for Gorman last year as he struck out at a worrisome 37.9% clip and watched his slash line plummet to a lackluster .203/.271/.400 (87 wRC+).
Even last year’s subpar offensive output is likely better than what can be expected from either Siani or Scott this year, but to get Gorman’s bat into the lineup the Cards would have to sacrifice on defense. Nootbaar has logged 109 games in center field over the course of his career, with a rather pedestrian +1 OAA during that relatively sporadic playing time. While it’s possible that Nootbaar’s numbers could tick up with more regular playing time at the position, it’s clear he lacks the impactful defense ability of Siani or Scott. The club’s baserunning would suffer if Gorman replaced Siani or Scott in the lineup as well, as Gorman has never swiped more than seven bags in a season and has been a net negative on the basepaths throughout his career according to FanGraphs’ BsR metric.
How should the Cardinals handle their center field conundrum? Should they stick with Siani’s elite glove despite his lackluster offense? Pass the baton to Scott despite questions about his offensive ceiling thanks to his elite speed and baserunning abilities? Or should they slide Nootbaar over to center despite pedestrian defense in order to maximize their lineup’s potential by making room for Gorman? Have your say in the poll below:
Who should play center field for the Cardinals in 2025?
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Victor Scott II 60% (2,106)
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Lars Nootbaar 32% (1,140)
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Michael Siani 8% (280)
Total votes: 3,526
John Mozeliak Discusses Cardinals’ Offseason Plans
Getting a clear picture of the Cardinals’ plans for 2025 has been a bit of a moving target. Multiple reports over the past months indicated the club was looking at a sort of reset year, lowering the payroll as they pivot towards a focus on player development. As such, it seemed fair to expect that a number of veteran players on the roster would be available in trade. In recent weeks, that expectation has been softened, something that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak discussed with Katie Woo of The Athletic this week.
“We have every intention of fielding a good baseball team,” Mozeliak said. “It’s going to have a different profile, but we still have a lot of belief that some of our younger players will take that next step forward. We’re excited about what we have. Now, it is Dec. 5, and things can happen and things can change. But we’re still going into (next season) with optimism that it’ll be a fun baseball team to watch.”
It seems the plan is to walk a bit of a fine line. The Cards are definitely planning to take their foot of the gas pedal a bit, though maybe not to the degree that was initially expected. All signs point to the club spending a bit less on the 2025 roster, but they might just do that by being less aggressive. RosterResource already projects the club about $35MM below last year’s payroll, so the Cards could just avoid signings as opposed to actively looking to move players with notable contracts.
As of a few weeks ago, it seemed fair to expect players like Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Ryan Helsley and others would be available. Helsley is an excellent reliever but is one year away from free agency, making it logical for them to explore trades. The other three are in their mid-30s and making eight-figure salaries. They all have no-trade protection but it was assumed by some that they would prefer to be traded to a competitor, rather than sticking out a rebuilding process.
But it was reported last month that Contreras actually wanted to stay in St. Louis and didn’t want to waive his no-trade clause. Since one of the goals of the 2025 season is for the club to evaluate players including catchers Iván Herrera and Pedro Pagés, Contreras will be moved to first base to replace free agent Paul Goldschmidt. Though the reporting was a bit less explicit with Gray, it seems he also had a desire to stay with the Cards next year.
Recent reporting has also suggested that they will hold onto Helsley. They could eventually trade him at the deadline but there is some risk there. Helsley could get hurt or put up less impressive numbers in the first half of 2025. Holding onto him now also prevents the acquiring team from making a qualifying offer after 2025, potentially reducing his trade value.
All in all, it seems the plan is to do something in between rebuilding and full-throated contending. The Cards are going to give playing time to some less proven players and hope for some internal developments. Woo lists Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, Pagés and Herrera as players who should get long auditions in 2025. That’s notable for Gorman as he seemed to fall out of favor this past year, getting optioned to the minors with Mozeliak seemingly delivering a harsh assessment of his situation at that time.
“Obviously, it’s a game of production up here and at some point, you’ve got to consistently produce, or we have to find someone who can,” Mozeliak said in August. “I mean, that’s what it ultimately comes down to, and these are hard messages to hear. It can be frustrating, but this is what ends up defining you. With our offensive struggles this year, I think you can strictly look at the inability for consistent performance, day in and day out.”
It seems much has changed since that comment, as Mozeliak now tells Woo that they’re hoping for Gorman to get 600 at-bats next year. He seemed to break out in 2023 with 27 home runs and a strong 11.4% walk rate, working around a high strikeout rate of 31.9%. But his walk rate fell to 8.5% in 2024 as his strikeout rate climbed even higher to 37.6%, leading to his aforementioned optioning to the minors.
The Cards have a few of these talented but unproven players and it seems the plan is to give them a chance to step forward. Walker also had a strong 2023 but fell off in 2024. Burleson had a nice breakout in 2024 that he’ll try to maintain. Nootbaar has been limited by injuries and still hasn’t played 120 games in a season. Pagés and Herrera have been stuck in backup duty behind Contreras.
The overarching plan then is to proverbially throw these players into the deep end and see how well they swim. The Cards believe that, with some success from that group and others, they could potentially compete in 2025. That mentality is leading them to hold onto players like Helsley for now and see how things go. Depending on how the players and the team perform in the first half of 2025 could then determine next steps.
The big remaining unknown seems to be Arenado, who seems to be more open to waiving his no-trade clause than Contreras or Gray, but he hasn’t demanded a trade and the Cardinals don’t seem hellbent on moving him. Whether he returns to St. Louis in 2025 could perhaps depend on what kind of offers are put on the table for him. On top of that, players like Erick Fedde, Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas are impending free agents. The club may be open to trading them depending on the offers, but like Helsley, they could also be retained as the club tries to see if contending in 2025 is possible.
Cardinals Option Nolan Gorman
The Cardinals have announced that infielder Nolan Gorman has been optioned to Triple-A Memphis. Fellow infielder José Fermín has been recalled from Memphis as the corresponding move.
For Gorman, it’s his first optional assignment in almost two years, as his last one came in September of 2022. Last year, he seemed to cement himself as a key piece of the club’s future, getting into 119 games and hitting 27 home runs. His 31.9% strikeout rate was quite high but he also walked at an 11.4% clip and provided that aforementioned power. His .236/.328/.478 batting line translated to a 118 wRC+, indicating he was 18% better than league average on the year.
Things have fallen off here in 2024, however. The power is still there, as evidenced by his 19 home runs, but his strikeout rate has climbed to 37.6%. Among qualified hitters in the league, that’s the highest in the league by a decent margin. Zack Gelof is at 35.2% and everyone else in the majors is below 32%. With Gorman’s walk rate also ticking down a bit to 8.5%, he has a .203/.271/.400 batting line and 87 wRC+ this year. He’s not considered an especially strong defender at second, so the declining offense is a real hit to his value.
The Cardinals were close enough to contention that they bought at the deadline, acquiring Erick Fedde, Tommy Pham and Shawn Armstrong. But they’ve had a rough August, going 5-12 on the month, including a 2-8 stretch in the past 10 contests. They have fallen to six games back of a Wild Card spot and have been shaking up their roster in recent days. Yesterday, infielder Brandon Crawford was released and outfielder Jordan Walker optioned down to the minors, with Gorman now following him down.
Utility player Brendan Donovan has seen a decent amount of second base this year and could perhaps take over at the keystone more regularly. With Pham’s addition to the outfield mix, Donovan won’t need to be on the grass as much, with Victor Scott II, Alec Burleson and Lars Nootbaar out there alongside Pham. Fermín can effectively replace Crawford and Gorman, as he can play both middle infield spots, as well as third base and the outfield corners a bit. He’s hitting .311/.424/.500 in Triple-A this year.
For Gorman personally, this optional assignment won’t impact his path to free agency but could cost him a chance at Super Two status. He came into this season with one year and 139 days of service time. He has already blown way past the two-year mark and would have finished 2024 at 2.139 if he stayed up all year. Based on past cutoffs, he would have had a strong chance at qualifying for arbitration this winter as a Super Two player. That could still be the case if he is quickly recalled, though every day that he spends in the minors will lower his chances.
The Cardinals used the 19th overall pick on Gorman back in 2018 and he was one of their top prospects on his way up the minor league ladder. They likely still view him as a key part of their future but he will have to earn it. “Obviously, it’s a game of production up here and at some point, you’ve got to consistently produce, or we have to find someone who can,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said yesterday, per John Denton of MLB.com. “I mean, that’s what it ultimately comes down to, and these are hard messages to hear. It can be frustrating, but this is what ends up defining you. With our offensive struggles this year, I think you can strictly look at the inability for consistent performance, day in and day out.”
Gorman will still have two option years even if he uses one here in 2024. That means the Cardinals could potentially keep him as a depth guy for quite a while if he doesn’t force their hand. Pham, Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Carpenter are all slated for free agency this winter, which could open up some playing time. They likely have some degree of interest in bringing all of them back, certainly with Goldschmidt, but Burleson or Luken Baker could theoretically take over at first base or designated hitter. That could then see Donovan slide back to more of an outfield role if Gorman can push his way into the picture, though the club’s offseason could also completely change the picture by next year and prospect Thomas Saggese is lurking in Triple-A.
Central Notes: Guardians, Cubs, Cease, Gorman
The Guardians have hired Dan Puente for an unspecified role on their major league coaching staff, per a report from The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. Puente, 42, was a 12th-round pick in the 2004 draft by the Orioles and played in the minor leagues for two seasons, though he didn’t make it past the Single-A level before retiring from professional baseball. During his post-playing career, Puente took roles in the Astros and White Sox organizations before eventually landing a hitting coach gig in the Cubs‘ minor league system prior to the 2020 campaign. He’s remained with the Cubs as a minor league hitting coach ever since, most recently coaching at High-A South Bend this past season.
While it’s not yet known what role Puente will take on in Cleveland, it’s worth noting that the Guardians lost assistant hitting coach Victor Rodriguez to the Padres earlier this winter when Rodriguez was offered a job as hitting coach under new manager Mike Shildt. Cleveland’s coaching staff has seen some noticeable turnover this winter, headlined by longtime skipper Terry Francona’s retirement from managing. Since Stephen Vogt was hired to take over for Francona as manager, the club has added Craig Albernaz as bench coach and Kai Correa as fielding coordinator. The club’s new coaching staff figures to have their hands full as they look to return to contention after a surprising third place finish in a weak AL Central division last year. The club’s 76-86 record put them two games behind the Tigers for second place and a whopping 11 games back of the Twins for the division crown.
More from the league’s Central divisions…
- Cubs fans enjoyed the club’s annual Cubs Convention this weekend, and comments from president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer regarding the club’s offseason were among the events on the event itinerary. As noted by The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, Hoyer seemingly pumped the breaks on trade rumors regarding young slugger Christopher Morel, whose name has swirled in trade rumors throughout the offseason. While Morel wasn’t in attendance at this weekend’s festivities, Mooney relays that Hoyer described the idea that Morel’s absence was due to a potential trade in the works as “laughable.” Morel slashed a solid .247/.314/.508 while slugging 26 homers in just 107 games in 2023, though his position for the 2024 season is up in the air after spending much of last season at DH.
- White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease has been the topic of plenty of trade talks throughout the offseason, and WEII’s Rob Bradford recently spoke to the hurler about the barrage of rumors about his future this winter. Cease told Bradford that he takes most rumors “with a grain of salt” and noted that he hasn’t spoken with the club’s front office about the possibility of a trade, though he did acknowledge that “Publicly saying it’s an option is like an indirect way of letting me know.” Cease added that whether or not he’s traded has no impact on his offseason work, saying that “At the end of the day, it really isn’t my job… My job is to perform wherever I go and be a good player.” The 28-year-old righty is coming off a down season where he pitched to a 4.58 ERA over 33 starts put finished as the runner-up for the AL Cy Young award just one year prior after posting a 2.20 ERA in 184 innings of work back in 2022.
- Back issues played a role in limiting Cardinals infielder Nolan Gorman to just 119 games last year, and Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch relays that the 23-year-old slugger has changed his offseason routine in hopes of staying healthy throughout the 2024 campaign. While Gorman told Guerrero that he hasn’t been able to pin down a specific cause of the issues, he’s been focusing on mobility and flexibility this offseason while working with a nutritionist to best prepare himself for the upcoming season. Gorman flashed impressive power in 2023, slashing .236/.328/.478 with 27 homers in just 119 games last year. Gorman split time between second base, third base, and DH last season and figures to split time between second base and DH with Brendan Donovan headed into the 2024 campaign.
Cardinals Rumors: Yamamoto, Gray, Trade Scenarios
The Cardinals added the first two of what they expect to be at least three starting pitchers this week, agreeing to a reunion with veteran righty Lance Lynn on a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $11MM and another one-year deal with Kyle Gibson worth $12MM. They’ll still look to add another arm, be it via free agency or trade. Among the more high-profile names they’re considering, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, are NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto and AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray. Goold’s report was published prior to the Cardinals’ agreement with Gibson, though it’s hard to imagine a one-year deal for a veteran innings eater would derail the club’s plans for higher-profile targets.
Pursuits of both right-handers were generally expected from a Cardinals club looking to add as many as three starting pitchers this winter — with at least one playoff-caliber arm among the presumed preferences. Goold has previously linked the Cards and Yamamoto, and he now writes that Yamamoto does not have any geographical preferences as he tests MLB free agency. He’s open to pitching on either coast or somewhere in between.
Despite his lack of MLB experience, the 25-year-old Yamamoto is widely projected to land the largest contract of any non-Shohei Ohtani pitcher this offseason. He’s considered by big league scouts to be a potential No. 1 or 2 starter in North American ball, and his combination of age and sterling track record make him an excessively rare type of free agent. Yamamoto has won the Sawamura Award, Japan’s equivalent of the Cy Young Award, in three consecutive seasons and just wrapped up a career-best campaign with a 1.21 ERA. He’s posted a sub-2.00 ERA in four of the past five seasons in NPB, fanning more than 27% of his opponents against a pristine 5.7% walk rate during that stretch.
Bidding on Yamamoto is expected to be fierce, perhaps pushing north of $200MM. (MLBTR ranked Yamamoto second among this offseason’s free agents and predicted a nine-year, $225MM deal.) He’s already drawn interest from a wide array of teams, reportedly including the Phillies (even after re-signing Aaron Nola), D-backs, Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Giants, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs and surely more.
Gray, 34, would be a less-expensive but still high-profile upgrade to the St. Louis staff. He finished second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting this season on the heels of a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings for the AL Central-champion Twins. He rejected a qualifying offer at season’s end, so he’d cost the Cards a draft pick and $500K of their international bonus pool, though for a pitcher of his track record, that’s perhaps not a detriment.
Gray’s age figures to limit the length of offers he ultimately commands. It’d be somewhat surprising to see him sign for more than four years, as even a four-year pact would run through his age-37 season — an age at which teams have tended to cap long-term deals in free agency. Gray is also on the radar for the Phillies, Braves and Red Sox. The Twins have voiced that they’d love to keep Gray as well — and Gray has said publicly that interest in a return is mutual — but with Minnesota expected to scale back payroll by around $10-20MM amid uncertainty regarding their television rights deal, it’s tough to envision them making the top bid.
In addition to their ongoing free-agent pursuits, the Cards are well-positioned to explore the trade market for potential rotation help. The team still generally has a glut of young position players, with more names on the roster than at-bats to go around. Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera simply don’t all have paths to regular playing time — particularly with veterans like Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt and Willson Contreras locked into the infield corners and catching duties.
As has been the case dating back to the summer, the Cardinals appear open to trading O’Neill and Carlson, per Katie Woo of The Athletic. However, just as it was last offseason and this past summer, Nootbaar is expected to stay in St. Louis. The 26-year-old hit .261/.367/.418 last year and cemented himself as the team’s center fielder. Injuries have limited Nootbaar in his early career, but he’s proven he can draw walks at an elite level while displaying intriguing batted-ball metrics and showing enough pop to top 20 homers per year if he can avoid the injured list. Add in his speed and ability to play all over the outfield, and he’s a valuable player whom the Cards understandably view as a core piece.
It’s not long ago that Carlson was viewed as a core piece, but after a pair of lackluster seasons at the dish, it seems the Cards are largely ready to move on from the one-time top prospect. It was something of a surprise that the switch-hitting center fielder wasn’t traded at the deadline, and it’d be even more surprising if he went the whole offseason without changing hands. The 25-year-old Carlson has batted .230/.316/.364 over the past two seasons — a far cry from the .266/.343/.437 output he turned in back in 2021. With three seasons of club control remaining and a projected $1.8MM salary in arbitration (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), he should still draw interest.
That said, it’s doubtful a trade of Carlson or O’Neill (a free agent next winter looking to rebound from a down year) can command the type of rotation upgrade that now looks increasingly necessary after signing Lynn and Gibson. If the Cards are indeed focused on upgrading the top half of their staff, they’d perhaps need to make more controllable members of the roster available. Woo writes, however, that the Cards “prefer to hang onto” infielders Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan. Presumably, first baseman/outfielder Alec Burleson is in the mix of names that could be moved, but his own lackluster production through his first 400 MLB plate appearances (plus his limited defensive ceiling) has probably deflated his stock a bit.
All in all, it’s a bit surprising that the Cards jumped the market for a pair of back-end innings eaters. Doing so ensured the stable, bulk innings the front office no doubt coveted, but it also only ratchets up the pressure to come away with a more meaningful upgrade at the front of the group. “More moves to come,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said today, per Goold.
Cardinals Select Juniel Querecuto
The Cardinals announced that infielder Nolan Gorman has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a right hamstring strain, with fellow infielder Juniel Querecuto selected to take his place on the active roster. The club already had a vacancy on its 40-man roster and won’t need to open a spot there.
Querecuto, 30, has a sliver of major league experience, having played four games for the Rays in 2016. Since then, he’s signed minor league deals with the Giants, Diamondbacks and Reds without getting back to the big leagues.
He joined the Cards on a minor league deal in the offseason and has been with Triple-A Memphis this year. In 440 plate appearances over 106 games for the Redbirds, he’s hit 13 home runs and walked in 9.1% of his plate appearances. The run-scoring environment is quite high in the International League this year, so his .269/.343/.418 line looks solid at first glance but translates to a wRC+ of 91. But he also stole 12 bases in 13 tries, as well as suiting up at the three infield positions to the left of first base and spending some time in the outfield.
The Cards now have three positions players on the injured list, with Gorman joining Brendan Donovan and Dylan Carlson. As the club plays out the string on a lost season, Querecuto can bounce around the diamond as needed. If he hangs onto his roster spot, he still has a full slate of options and just a few days of service time.
As for Gorman, he left last night’s game with hamstring tightness and the club will let him rest for at least 10 days. They haven’t provided any updates about the severity of his injury, but since they are out of contention and there’s just over two weeks left on the schedule, it’s possible his season is over. Although he has struck out in 31.9% of his trips to the plate this year, he’s also walked at a strong 11.4% clip and hit 27 home runs.
Cardinals Select Masyn Winn
The Cardinals announced they’ve selected the contract of top shortstop prospect Masyn Winn. In a corresponding move, St. Louis is placing center fielder Lars Nootbaar on the 10-day injured list with a lower abdominal contusion, tweets John Denton of MLB.com. The Cardinals already had two vacancies on the 40-man roster.
Winn was St. Louis’ second-round pick out of a Texas high school three years ago. The canceled minor league season kept him from playing in a professional game until 2021. Winn has rapidly climbed the minor league ladder, spending most of last season in Double-A at age 20. He stole 28 bases while hitting .258/.349/.432 in 86 games against generally older competition, cementing himself as one of the sport’s top prospects heading into last winter.
The Cards assigned Winn to Triple-A Memphis this year. He has spent the entire season there, posting a .283/.356/.465 batting line in 494 plate appearances. The slash stats are aided by an offense-heavy Triple-A environment. Of the 107 International League hitters with 300+ trips to the plate, Winn ranks 57th in on-base percentage and 43rd in slugging.
That production is partially weighed down by a very slow start to the year. Winn hit only .223/.287/.321 in April but has an OPS of .763 or better in every subsequent month. The right-handed hitter has feasted on southpaws, hitting .353/.425/.639 with the platoon advantage. His production against same-handed pitching is more modest — .258/.331/.401 — but that’s a small concern for a 21-year-old hitter at the top minor league level.
Winn has shown advanced contact skills, drawing walks at a decent 8.9% clip while striking out in only 16.8% of his plate appearances. He has connected on 17 home runs, 15 doubles and seven triples and gone 17-19 in stolen base attempts.
In addition to those promising offensive traits, Winn has a chance to be an impact middle infield defender. Prospect evaluators credit him with elite arm strength and the athleticism to stick at shortstop. While the Cards gave him 25 starts at the keystone in Memphis to broaden his flexibility, Winn has logged more than 2300 professional innings at shortstop.
Given the well-rounded profile and his upper minors success despite being so young, Winn is unanimously regarded as one of the top minor league talents. Baseball America ranked him the game’s #30 prospect on their recent update; Kiley McDaniel of ESPN slotted him 16th on his own refresh of the sport’s top prospects earlier in the week. Evaluators peg Winn’s power potential as solid-average while praising the rest of his profile.
The 5’11” infielder is generally viewed as the Cards’ potential long-term starting shortstop. St. Louis dealt Paul DeJong to the Blue Jays at the deadline. Tommy Edman has been the primary shortstop of late but is capable of moving around the diamond. Nootbaar will be out of action for at least the next week and a half after fouling a ball off his groin last night, while second baseman Nolan Gorman hit the 10-day IL this afternoon because of a lower back strain. Edman can cover the keystone or center field while the Cards give Winn regular run at shortstop over the season’s final six-plus weeks.
Along with the injuries to Nootbaar and Gorman, the calendar itself opened a path to Winn’s promotion. Players enter a season with rookie eligibility so long as they’ve spent fewer than 46 days on an MLB active roster and tallied 130 or fewer big league at-bats. Beginning Friday, there’ll be 45 days left in the regular season. Assuming the Cards limit his playing time to keep him from topping 130 at-bats, he’ll retain his rookie eligibility into 2024.
Before 2022, a player’s rookie status wouldn’t matter much to clubs in timing their promotions. The Prospect Promotion Incentive in the ’22 collective bargaining agreement now makes that a factor in some cases. A position player who had appeared on at least two Top 100 lists at BA, ESPN and MLB Pipeline the preceding offseason can earn his club a bonus draft choice if a) the team carries them on the MLB roster for a full service year and b) the player wins Rookie of the Year or finishes top three in MVP voting during his pre-arbitration seasons.
Winn will certainly meet the prospect criteria next winter. Whether the Cardinals carry him on the MLB roster for all of 2024 and if he plays well enough to merit award consideration can’t yet be known. By waiting until August 18 to bring him up, however, the Cardinals are keeping that possibility open (again assuming Winn stays under 131 at-bats through season’s end).
If he’s in the majors through year’s end, Winn will conclude this season with 45 days of service. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2026 campaign at the earliest and is controllable through at least 2029. Future assignments to the minors could push that trajectory back further.
The more immediate focus for both Winn and the club will be on his initial exposure to big league pitching. He’ll have a month and a half to try to stake an early claim to the shortstop job heading into 2024. St. Louis has Edman, Gorman and Brendan Donovan (who’s out for the season after undergoing elbow surgery) also in the middle infield mix. If Winn puts a strong foot forward over the coming weeks, perhaps that’d increase the front office’s willingness to part with a middle infielder in an offseason trade as they look for ways to overhaul three-fifths of their rotation.
Katie Woo of the Athletic first reported Winn’s promotion.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Rays, Diamondbacks Showing Interest In Jordan Hicks
The D-Backs and Rays are among the clubs with interest in Cardinals reliever Jordan Hicks, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). The Rangers were tied to the hard-throwing righty this afternoon. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this afternoon that the Yankees also had some interest in Hicks.
Hicks has seemed a likely trade candidate for a while. He’s an impending free agent on a St. Louis club that is openly turning its attention to 2024. He’s having a good season, posting a 3.67 ERA through 41 2/3 innings and climbing back to a high-leverage role. Hicks offers a rare blend of strikeouts (31.2%) and grounders (58.3%). Even with below-average control, his power arsenal is obviously appealing to clubs.
A few days ago, it seemed as if Hicks might surprisingly come off the market. The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported that his camp was in talks with the Cardinals about a potential multi-year extension. However, Goold reported yesterday those conversations hadn’t gained much traction.
Feinsand suggests an extension hasn’t entirely been ruled out. However, Woo echoed Goold’s reporting this afternoon, writing that talks have stalled and a trade seems probable.
Virtually any team with postseason aspirations this season could be a viable suitor. Even clubs that don’t need back-end bullpen help could add a reliever to the middle innings. Arizona has a stronger need than Tampa Bay on paper. The D-Backs rank 23rd in bullpen ERA (4.57) and 19th in strikeout rate (23.2%). The Rays are seventh in ERA (3.74) and 26th in strikeout percentage (22.1%). The Rays’ overall bullpen numbers are dragged down a bit by how often they rely on relievers and bulk pitchers following openers. Only the A’s and Giants have used their bullpen for more innings, which will naturally weigh down their dominance on a rate basis.
Of course, there’s no indication the bidding for Hicks is down to Texas, New York, Arizona and Tampa Bay. The Cardinals’ front office is presumably in conversations with a number of clubs about their trade candidates. Hicks joins Chris Stratton as impending free agent relievers on the St. Louis roster. Starters Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are also headed to the open market and likely to be dealt this summer. Their markets are mostly unreported, but each of Texas, Arizona and Tampa Bay is also known to be looking for rotation help. Shortstop Paul DeJong figures to move as well.
Those short-term assets — paired with Dylan Carlson, who has gotten increasingly squeezed out of the outfield picture — have seemed St. Louis’ most likely trade pieces. Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman have drawn interest from other clubs, but Woo unsurprisingly writes the Cardinals aren’t interested in trading them. That’s also true of power-hitting second baseman Nolan Gorman, who has five seasons of club control beyond this one.
Where Could The Giants Turn For Middle Infield Help?
The Giants lost second baseman Thairo Estrada for over a month when he fractured his left hand on a hit-by-pitch two Sundays back. San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last week that Estrada’s injury could affect the team’s deadline outlook.
“We’ve got to at least evaluate what we have in the middle infield,” Zaid said on Friday. “Kind of just keep an eye on the market and see if there’s someone that can be impactful there and weigh that against continuing to give opportunities to Casey [Schmitt] and Brett [Wisely].”
With Zaidi and his staff examining things, let’s take a look at some potential options. The middle infield market is light on apparent trade candidates. Most of the available short-term solutions are having average or worse seasons. Perhaps a longer-shot name comes available (we’ll take a look at a few potential options at the back of the list), but the likely scenario is that San Francisco sifts through stopgap types.
- Paul DeJong ($9MM salary, controllable through 2025 via club options)
A quality everyday shortstop early in his career, DeJong fell off at the plate by 2021. He combined to hit .182/.269/.352 between 2021-22. The Cards optioned him to Triple-A last summer. He’s rebounded somewhat in 2023, putting together a .231/.302/.434 line with 12 home runs in 245 trips to the plate. Paired with his customary above-average defense, he reclaimed the primary shortstop job in St. Louis.
DeJong’s profile isn’t without flaws. He’s striking out in more than 30% of his plate appearances. His production has been very platoon-dependent. The right-handed hitter is mashing southpaws at a .269/.381/.500 clip but reaching base at a meager .275 rate against righty pitching. He could step in as a short-term replacement for the righty-swinging Estrada at second base while potentially taking a few at-bats against lefty pitching from Brandon Crawford at shortstop later in the year.
- Tim Anderson ($12.5MM salary, $14MM club option for 2024)
MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently explored the White Sox’s dilemma regarding Anderson. He’s an All-Star caliber shortstop at his best — a threat to hit over .300 with double-digit homers and steals. That player hasn’t shown up in 2023. Anderson has been among the worst regulars in the sport, hitting .223/.259/.263 without a single round-tripper.
Where does that leave Chicago? They’re 16 games under .500 and preparing to move short-term players. Trading Anderson now would be an obvious sell-low, but this could be their last chance to get a return at all. A $14MM club option that looked like a no-brainer a few months ago is now more borderline. If the Sox are leaning towards buying Anderson out next winter, then a trade would be advisable. He only has two MLB starts at a position other than shortstop but would presumably have to move to second base if San Francisco were interested in buying low.
- Cavan Biggio ($2.8MM salary, arbitration-eligible through 2025) / Santiago Espinal ($2.1MM salary, arbitration-eligible through 2026)
Biggio and Espinal have been pushed out of the everyday lineup in Toronto. Whit Merrifield has taken over as the primary second baseman. Biggio is bouncing between right field and the keystone. Espinal is covering multiple infield spots off the bench.
Neither player is hitting well this season, though they’ve both shown better in the past. Biggio was an above-average bat from 2019-20 thanks to huge walk totals. Espinal was an All-Star a season ago and combines defensive versatility with plus contact skills. The Jays don’t have to move either but could find one of them expendable, particularly if they can bring back immediate pitching help in a trade.
- Ramón Urías (pre-arbitration, controllable through 2026) / Adam Frazier ($8MM salary, impending free agent)
Like Toronto, Baltimore enters deadline season as a buyer. The O’s have plenty of infield depth, however, so they could consider ways to deal from that surplus to address the pitching staff. Urías, 29, established himself as a regular last year when he hit 16 home runs while playing Gold Glove defense at third base. He’s hitting .261/.328/.396 with only four homers in 229 trips to the plate this season. He can play either second or third base and will reach arbitration for the first time next winter.
Frazier’s only two years older than Urías but much further along in his career. The former All-Star is actually Baltimore’s highest-paid position player at $8MM. He’s a bottom-of-the-lineup second baseman hitting .232/.299/.397 with 10 homers over 297 trips to the plate. The recent promotion of top prospect Jordan Westburg to join Gunnar Henderson in the everyday infield leaves fewer at-bats for the likes of Urías, Frazier and Jorge Mateo.
- Nicky Lopez ($3.7MM salary, arbitration-eligible through 2025)
Lopez is a light-hitting defensive specialist who can cover either middle infield spot. He’s a career .249/.312/.319 hitter in just more than 1800 plate appearances. Lopez is tough to strike out but has bottom-of-the-scale power and hasn’t homered since 2021. Public metrics consider him an above-average defender throughout the infield. He’s controllable for two additional seasons, but a last place Kansas City team could put him on the market this summer.
- Tony Kemp ($3.725MM salary, impending free agent)
Kemp is a clear trade candidate as a rental on a terrible A’s team. If Oakland can find any interest this summer, they’ll move him. A left-handed hitter, Kemp has only hit .197/.286/.283 on the season. He’s played fairly well of late after a dreadful first couple months, though. Going back to the start of June, the veteran has a .272/.359/.407 line with eight walks and only six strikeouts in 94 plate appearances. It wouldn’t be the most exciting acquisition, but Kemp could be a short-term option if the Giants want a stopgap until Estrada returns without sacrificing any notable prospect talent.
Longer Shots
- Gleyber Torres ($9.95MM salary, arbitration-eligible through 2024)
Torres is one of the few Yankees’ hitters with slightly above-average offensive numbers on the year. The right-handed hitting second baseman owns a .251/.325/.413 line with 13 homers over 375 trips to the dish. Torres has strong strikeout and walk numbers but modest batted ball marks. He has rated as an average defensive second baseman by measure of both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast.
New York is a game back in the AL Wild Card picture. They’re likely to look for ways to upgrade the offense in the next few weeks. A Torres trade isn’t especially likely, but it’s not inconceivable. Oswald Peraza is in Triple-A and could soon be an option to step in at second base on a regular basis. The Yankees have short-term questions at third base and in the corner outfield.
The organization is also right up against the fourth luxury tax line at $293MM. They were reportedly reluctant to cross that threshold over the offseason; owner Hal Steinbrenner suggested a few weeks ago it wasn’t a firm cap but implied the team would want an impactful acquisition to go over that mark. Reallocating a few million dollars in a Torres trade could clear some flexibility for a subsequent acquisition.
- Nolan Gorman (pre-arbitration, controllable through 2028) / Brendan Donovan (pre-arbitration, controllable through 2028)
The Cardinals would have to be blown away to part with either Gorman or Donovan. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak conceded yesterday the club would probably part with short-term assets. Gorman and Donovan have the chance to be core players for years to come.
Trading DeJong is the more straightforward path for St. Louis. They have enough infield depth it’s theoretically possible another club could sway them on Gorman, Donovan or Tommy Edman — likely by dangling high-upside young pitching. That’s probably beyond what San Francisco has in mind.
Latest On Cardinals’ Offseason Priorities
The Cardinals have had a quiet offseason, with minor league infielder Jose Fermín being their only outside acquisition to date. That’s certain to change in the coming days and weeks, as St. Louis will undoubtedly bring in a catcher. They could look to the rotation and perhaps to the middle infield or corner outfield markets as well, although they have a number of position players on a typically deep St. Louis roster.
Entering the offseason, there was a fair bit of speculation the Cards could partake in the loaded free agent shortstop class. There’s not much indication they’ve dived deeply into that market, although Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted this afternoon they’ve at least checked in with free agent options at the position. Still, it doesn’t seem that’s a huge priority, as president of baseball operations John Mozeliak reiterated this evening the team is comfortable with Tommy Edman as their primary shortstop (via Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). The top St. Louis executive went on to note the team likes Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman as second base possibilities.
That’s a sentiment Mozeliak has expressed a few times in the offseason’s early going. Asked about the possibility of adding a shortstop last week, Mozeliak replied that Edman is “is a very, very good shortstop” (link via Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic). While he’s never expressly ruled out an acquisition at the position, Mozeliak has extolled Edman when given the chance. The switch-hitting infielder is a Gold Glove caliber defender at both middle infield positions, and he’s coming off a quality .265/.324/.400 line through 630 plate appearances.
Edman could certainly move back to second base, but the presence of Donovan and Gorman gives St. Louis plenty of options. The former finished third in NL Rookie of the Year balloting this year after posting an excellent .394 on-base percentage through his first 126 MLB games. The latter had strikeout concerns but connected on 14 home runs in 89 games as a rookie after mashing in Triple-A. Neither Donovan nor Gorman is a strong defensive fit for up-the-middle work, but that’s perhaps not as significant a concern for a St. Louis team that otherwise has plus defenders (Paul Goldschmidt, Edman and Nolan Arenado) manning the dirt.
Paul DeJong also remains under contract, due $11MM and headed into the last guaranteed season of his deal. The former All-Star is coming off a third straight well below-average offensive season that kicked him down the depth chart, but the front office has consistently maintained they expected he’d bounce back. After a .157/.245/.286 showing in 77 MLB games in 2022, DeJong can’t be counted on for everyday reps on a win-now team. Yet it’s possible he sticks on the roster as a glove-first complement to Gorman and Donovan in the middle infield.
Mozeliak suggested DeJong is likely to be with St. Louis heading into 2023, telling reporters tonight (via Jones) they’re “not ready to cut bait” on the 29-year-old. He indicated the Cards have received some trade interest in DeJong — presumably from teams asking they’d pay down most of the contract while accepting a meager return — but suggested that’s not a course of action the Cards plan to take.
It seems a long shot the Cardinals end up landing one of the three remaining top shortstops, with more motivated teams in the bidding. However, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets the team could circle back to that market if they find their desired catching upgrade on the trade market. Dansby Swanson, who’s expected to command a lighter contract than either of Carlos Correa or Xander Bogaerts, would be the likely target in that event, Goold suggests. It seems any full-fledged pursuit of a shortstop for St. Louis would first be conditional on affordably solidifying the situation behind the plate, and it’s still not clear the team would consider a marquee investment at the position to be especially appealing.