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Paul Goldschmidt

Giants Notes: Payroll, Goldschmidt, Wade

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It was reported last month that the Giants were looking to scale back payroll relative to 2024 levels, but that may no longer be the case. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports reports that the club initially had planned on focusing more on player development in 2025 while taking a step back in terms of building the major league roster, but now seems to have changed course.

That tracks with the club’s behavior in recent weeks. They just signed shortstop Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182MM deal and are reportedly involved on free agent right-hander Corbin Burnes, who is likely to get an even bigger deal than Adames. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Burnes for $200MM over seven years, but basically every pitcher has been beating expectations this winter. Max Fried was predicted for $156MM over six years, notably below the prediction for Burnes, but got to $218MM over eight years. As such, it’s fair to expect Burnes to beat Fried’s guarantee by some margin.

If the Giants are ultimately successful in signing Burnes, it would put them pretty close to the competitive balance tax line. RosterResource projects their 2025 number at $208MM right now, which is $33MM below next year’s $241MM base threshold. The Giants crossed the CBT line in 2024 and the planned pay cut likely would have seen them stay below the line in 2025, but a Burnes deal would bridge most of that gap with still other moves likely to follow. In terms of pure dollars, they’re projected for $167MM next year, almost $40MM below their 2024 spending.

The pivot to a more aggressive winter bodes well for their chances in the upcoming season. Adames fills a clear area of need and Burnes would be a huge rotation upgrade if it comes together. In addition to the financial costs of those deals, there would be long-term consequences in terms of draft capabilities. The Giants gave up two picks in 2024, one each for signing Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, since each guy had rejected a qualifying offer. Since the Giants paid the tax in 2024, the penalties are higher this winter. Signing Adames means forfeiting $1MM of international bonus pool space and two picks, their second- and fifth-highest choices in 2025. Like Adames, Burnes also rejected a qualifying offer, which would mean forfeiting another $1MM in pool space and another two picks.

Given that the club’s plan was initially going to involve player development, that’s a notable part of the pivot. However, it’s possible that the Giants simply want to make something happen now, more so than in the future. Their stunning 2021 campaign is their only winning season of the past eight years, so perhaps there’s an appetite to get over the hump sooner rather than later. New president of baseball operations Buster Posey spoke in his introductory press conference about the club getting back into the memory-making business, which has seemingly spurred the club towards shopping at or near the top of free agency.

Whether the Burnes deal can come together or not, the club will also have to consider other moves. In a separate column, Pavlovic notes that veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt “has a lot of fans in the organization.” Separately, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic suggests that Posey might be willing to sign veterans to short-term deals, floating Goldschmidt as a possibility alongside Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

Goldschmidt, 37, isn’t too far removed from winning National League Most Valuable Player in 2022 but his performance has declined in the past two years. He slashed .317/.404/.578 for a 175 wRC+ in his MVP season but he fell in 2023 and dropped even further this year. His 2024 batting line finished at .245/.302/.414 for a 100 wRC+, indicating he was exactly league average. His 7.2% walk rate and 26.5% strikeout rate were both career worsts, outside of his 2011 debut.

Whether he can bounce back in 2025 or not is a matter for debate. His age and recent decline don’t bode especially well, but there is arguably some confidence to be found in his strong finish this year. He hit just .230/.291/.373 in the first half of 2024 for an 87 wRC+ but then .271/.319/.480 in the second half for a 120 wRC+.

The Giants don’t strictly have a need at first base, with LaMonte Wade Jr. currently projected as their primary option there. However, they don’t have a clear everyday designated hitter at the moment. Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto got the most DH appearances in 2024 but Soler is now and Angel and Conforto a Dodger. Wilmer Flores could be in the mix there but he was dreadful in 2024 while battling knee problems and it’s unclear how much the Giants expect from him in 2025.

With the current roster construction, using the DH for some outfield overflow might make sense. The club has Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee and Mike Yastrzemski likely in three outfield spots but with Grant McCray, Jerar Encarnación, Luis Matos, Marco Luciano and others on the roster. Having Goldschmidt and Wade sharing the DH spot and first base would make it hard to find extra at-bats for that group, though perhaps the Giants are willing to live with that in order to take a shot on Goldschmidt for his veteran leadership. He also wouldn’t be able to command a lengthy deal on account of his age and recent performance. MLBTR predicted him for a one-year pact with a $15MM guarantee at the start of the offseason.

There’s also the possibility of signing Goldschmidt and then making Wade available in trades. It was reported last month that Wade and Yastrzemski were indeed available, as well as some other players, though it’s unclear if the club’s recent change in plans has altered the availability of such players.

Wade were surely draw interest from other clubs if the Giants wanted to move him. He doesn’t provide the pop that clubs usually look to get from a first baseman, but he gets on base and isn’t too expensive. Over the past two years, he has drawn a walk in 15% of his 920 plate appearances. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber were the only big leaguers with at least 900 plate appearances and better walk rates in that time. Wade only hit 25 home runs over those two seasons but his .258/.376/.401 batting line still translated to a strong 120 wRC+.

For his career, Wade has notable platoon splits, with a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers and just a 64 wRC+ against lefties. He was much better against southpaws in 2024, though in a tiny sample of just 43 plate appearances. There are limits in his profile but MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest $4.7MM salary in his final year of club control.

Tigers Interested In Paul Goldschmidt

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With their first prominent offseason move now in the books, the Tigers may be looking to follow up the Alex Cobb signing with some offensive help.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (via X) that Detroit has interest in seven-time All-Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who is a free agent for the first time in his 14-year career.

Acquiring Goldschmidt isn’t the type of blockbuster move it would’ve been just a few years ago, as the veteran is coming off the first true middling season of his long career.  Goldschmidt had a perfectly average 100 wRC+ over 154 games and 654 plate appearances with the Cardinals in 2024, while batting .245/.302/.414 with 22 home runs.  All three points of that slash line were career lows for Goldschmidt, and his strikeout, walk and chase rates were all well below the league average.

Since Goldschmidt turned 37 in September, it could be that he is simply hitting a decline phase after holding off Father Time for so long.  That said, there is reason to believe the first baseman might still have something left in the tank for a 15th MLB season (or beyond).  Most of Goldschmidt’s struggles were contained to the first half of the season, as he hit a more respectable .271/.319/.480 in 250 PA after the All-Star break.  He has continued to blister the ball when he does make contact, as Goldschmidt had strong barrel rates and a hard-hit ball rate that ranked in the 92nd percentile of all batters.

Between the hard-contact numbers and Goldschmidt’s excellent track record, there is certainly reason for teams to think he might have a bounce-back season in a new environment.  His age means that a one-year contract is likely, which fits the Tigers’ preference for shorter-term contracts.  Recent reports have indicated that Detroit is known to be looking for one- or two-year deals for starting pitchers, and the team is also wary of making a play for any free agent attached to a qualifying offer.  This would seemingly hamper the Tigers’ chances of signing another target in Christian Walker, so Goldschmidt could be viewed as alternative.

Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris has been vocal about his desire to add some veteran leadership to a young and talented club that reached the playoffs this season.  Goldschmidt would certainly fill that role in the clubhouse, and his right-handed bat fits well in a very left-handed Detroit lineup.

The Tigers can use all the offense they can get considering the team’s lackluster hitting numbers in 2024, though installing Goldschmidt at first base begs the question of what will be done with Spencer Torkelson.  The DH spot would allow Torkelson or Goldschmidt some at-bats when Kerry Carpenter is used in right field, though naturally Torkelson would be something of an odd man out in this situation.

It doesn’t appear as though Detroit is giving up on Torkelson’s potential, even though he has yet to show much consistency over parts of three MLB seasons.  In an interview on MLB Network (hat tip to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press), Harris described Torkelson as “immensely talented. Just like these young guys, we got to stick with him.  We got to keep finding ways to get a little bit more out of him.”

Cards Moving Willson Contreras To First Base; Contreras Unlikely To Waive No-Trade Clause

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As he heads into the third season of his five-year, $87.5MM contract, Willson Contreras is headed for a position change. The Cardinals plan to move Contreras from catcher to first base next season, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters at the GM Meetings today that the move to a first base/designated hitter role was made with Contreras’ long-term health and longevity in mind, adding that he’s “unlikely” to catch much at all in 2025 (X link via Katie Woo of The Athletic).

Mozeliak added that Contreras was quite clear about his desire to remain in St. Louis even as the team embarks on something of a reset (via Woo). That makes it unlikely he’d be willing to waive his full no-trade clause this offseason. It’s a similar story with right-hander Sonny Gray, it seems. Mozeliak didn’t directly state as much, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Gray has also expressed a preference to remain with the Cardinals. Like Contreras, Gray has full no-trade protection.

The move to first base for Contreras opens the path for Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages to split time behind the plate. It’s perhaps possible that an injury to one or both players could result in Contreras suiting up and crouching behind home plate once again, but it seems the organization’s preference is a shift away from that role. It’s the latest in a winding saga with the Cardinals’ seeming distaste for Contreras’ defense — one that began just weeks into his first season with the club.

The Cardinals announced early in the 2023 season that Contreras would be moving off catcher for at least a few weeks. At the time, Mozeliak stressed that Contreras hadn’t caught his last game for the club but added that the team had grown accustomed to Yadier Molina’s glovework behind the dish, adding that “this is going to take a little time to get him to where we feel he understands the expectations of what this role is for us.” It was a stunning announcement less than two months into a five-year contract, and one that generated even more confusion when Contreras returned to catching just one week later.

With the contract now 40% complete, Contreras appears ticketed for a more permanent move off the position. The 32-year-old has long been regarded as a bat-first catcher, but the ongoing questions about the Cardinals’ satisfaction with his defense (or lack thereof) has at multiple points prompted questions about why the team signed him to a five-year deal in the first place. Those questions will only grow louder now. Statcast has generally given Contreras plus grades for his throwing and rated him as a solid blocker, though his framing skills have been panned. He’s lived up to his end of the deal at the plate, however, hitting a combined .263/.367/.468 in 853 plate appearances. A broken forearm and finger, among other smaller injuries, have limited his time on the field, but Contreras has generally been one of the Cardinals’ best hitters when healthy.

That’ll presumably continue as he moves into a new role on the field. Contreras’ position shift seems likely to close the door on a potential reunion with free agent Paul Goldschmidt, who’ll now look to rebound elsewhere after a disappointing finish to his St. Louis tenure. It’ll also finally give the 24-year-old Herrera a crack at the starting catcher role for which he’s appeared ready for several years.

Herrera was thought to be a potential heir to Molina behind the plate, but any such hopes were dashed when the Cards originally signed Contreras. He’s a .289/.365/.398 hitter in 325 major league plate appearances (117 wRC+) and carries a stout .281/.414/.453 slash in 176 Triple-A contests. Pages, 26, hit .238/.281/.376 in 218 big league plate appearances in 2024. The righty hitter did post solid offensive numbers as a 24-year-old in Double-A in 2023, but scouting reports on him have questioned his hit tool while characterizing him as a likelier platoon option or backup.

Turning to Gray, his apparent desire to remain in St. Louis makes him a less obvious trade candidate than he was entering the winter. The Cards were reported to be open to offers on Gray even before they publicly revealed their plan for a step-back to focus on player development. Gray’s no-trade clause and heavily backloaded contract were always significant roadblocks in a potential trade, but ones that potentially seemed surmountable. He was quite selective about his destination in free agency, preferring to be relatively close to his Nashville home. Still, there was some thought that a trade to a geographically close club might hold appeal.

Working out such a swap would’ve been complicated. Gray’s three-year, $75MM contract paid him just $10MM in year one. He’s owed $65MM over the course of the next two seasons. That’s a huge number for an acquiring club to take on, particularly if said club has luxury-tax concerns (e.g. the Braves). A team acquiring a contract is taxed on the remainder of the deal rather than the original AAV, meaning a new club would be on the hook for a $32.5MM luxury hit in acquiring Gray. Those hurdles are all rendered moot, however, if Gray prefers to remain in St. Louis and see how things play out in the short-term.

Mozeliak told reporters today that he spoke to all of his players with no-trade clauses. That means he’s at least broached the possibility with third baseman Nolan Arenado. It’s not yet clear, however, whether Arenado is as convicted in his desire to remain on board through the team’s reset. Certainly, the lack of comments or concrete reporting on the matter doesn’t mean Arenado is requesting or even open to a trade, but the lack of information on him will fuel natural speculation. Arenado’s trade from Colorado to St. Louis, after all, was prompted by his frustration over the Rockies’ inability to field a competitive roster. Playing for a contending club was a priority for him — so much so that he passed on an opt-out opportunity in his contract to remain in St. Louis due in large part to their status as perennial contenders.

Arenado now has three years and $74MM remaining on his contract. The Rockies are on the hook for $5MM of that sum. He’s had two straight pedestrian seasons at the plate, batting .269/.320/.426 since 2023. That’s still slightly better than league-average production by measure of wRC+ but is a far cry from his MVP-caliber 2022 showing when he hit .293/.358/.553. Whether he can bounce back as he heads into his age-34 campaign is an open question, but Arenado remains an elite defender with rare durability. He’s missed 28 games over the past two seasons but has played in 94.6% of his teams’ games dating back to the 2015 season.

Cardinals To Part Ways With Paul Goldschmidt, Could Reduce Payroll This Winter

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The Cardinals do not plan on bringing veteran first baseman Paul Goldschmidt back in 2025, according to a report from The Athletic’s Katie Woo. Goldschmidt is scheduled to hit free agency this offseason, and while the club had previously been rumored to have interest in bringing him back for 2025, it now appears the club will part ways with the future Hall of Famer. For his part, Goldschmidt has made clear that he plans to continue his career into 2025.

Goldschmidt isn’t the only player expected to depart this offseason. According to Woo, it’s unlikely that any of the club’s pending free agents will return to the club next year as the club pivots towards a focus on bolstering its player development apparatus. Woo specifically noted that relievers Andrew Kittredge and Keynan Middleton are expected to land elsewhere this winter, though she emphasized it was not yet clear whether veteran starters Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson are included in the expected exodus. St. Louis holds identical $12MM club options on the duo’s services for next year, each with a $1MM buyout.

Woo also notes that a reduction to the major league payroll could be on the horizon as the club reinvests in player development, echoing a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale early today that indicated the Cardinals could shop veteran right-hander Sonny Gray as they look to cut payroll. Woo did not explicitly suggest that Gray will be shopped, but did list the right-hander among a handful of veteran Cardinals players whose futures with the club could be put “into question” by a drop in payroll this winter alongside third baseman Nolan Arenado, catcher Willson Contreras, and closer Ryan Helsley. MLBTR discussed Gray’s potential trade candidacy earlier today in conjunction with Nightengale’s report, which noted the Reds as a potential suitor for the veteran’s services.

If the Cardinals are going to look at shopping Gray this winter amid an effort to reduce payroll, it’s only natural that the club could entertain offers on a number of other high-priced veterans as well. Contreras, in particular, could be a sensible candidate for the club to move this winter. The 32-year-old backstop has been nothing short of phenomenal with the bat since he joined the Cardinals prior to the 2023 campaign, slashing an impressive .263/.367/.468 (133 wRC+) in 209 games with St. Louis as he’s sustained the offense breakout he enjoyed during his final season with the Cubs in 2022.

With that being said, not everything has gone well for Contreras since he joined the club. The veteran was temporarily moved off of catcher after just six weeks in the organization, only to be reinstated as the Cubs regular catcher shortly thereafter. Per Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, Contreras was worth -3 runs behind the plate last year that was his worst figure since 2019. Those defensive struggles behind the plate led the club’s coaches to suggest Contreras move closer to the plate while catching. The strategy seems to have worked to improve his defense at the position as his FRV improved to +0 this year, but it came at a substantial cost as the veteran suffered an arm fracture that required surgery earlier this year after being struck by a swing from Mets DH J.D. Martinez.

Given the Cardinals’ concerns regarding Contreras’s defense, the $54.5MM due to him over the next three seasons, and the presence of up-and-coming youngsters Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages ready to take on larger roles in the majors, it would hardly be a surprise if the Cardinals decided to listen to offers on the veteran catcher this offseason. Given his success at the plate over the past three years, it seems reasonable to expect that teams would have interest in the veteran’s services even if they joined in St. Louis’s suspicions regarding his defense behind the plate, as he could move to a first base or DH role fairly seamlessly if an acquiring club wanted to make such a switch. Of course, it’s also possible that there’s a club that either believes they can improve Contreras’s defense or is willing to sacrifice defensive value behind the plate in order to fit a middle-of-the-order bat into its lineup and would be happy to employ Contreras as a catcher as well.

Arenado, on the other hand, could be trickier for the club to move in the event they shop him. The 33-year-old future Hall of Famer opted in for the final five years and $144MM of his contract with the club prior to the 2023 season in a move that, at the time, was somewhat surprising. With that being said, the third baseman hasn’t looked like the MVP candidate he was earlier in his career over the two seasons since then. In 296 games with St. Louis over the past two seasons, Arenado has hit just .269/.320/.426. That’s still good for an above-average 104 wRC+ and, in conjunction with his strong but no longer elite defense at third base, has been good for 5.8 fWAR total over the past two years.

While that level of production still casts Arenado as a clearly valuable player even as he enters his mid 30s, it’s easy to imagine rival clubs balking at the idea of giving up significant prospect capital while also taking on the remaining three years and $74MM left on Arenado’s deal with the club, though it’s worth noting that the Rockies are paying down $5MM of that figure per year to reduce the total burden to just $59MM over three seasons.

Another factor that can’t be ignored is that Arenado, Contreras, and Gray all have full no-trade clauses at present, meaning any of them could block trades to any teams that they wish. That’s not necessarily always an obstacle to a trade, as players with no-trade protection will often waive those rights in the event that their teams wants to move on, but it does offer each veteran significant leverage in the event that the Cardinals look to move on from any of them. That leverage could be used to ensure they get traded to a preferred organization or in order to get additional financial incentives in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause, as Arenado did when he agreed to waive his no-trade clause to be dealt from the Rockies to the Cardinals in exchange for an additional year and $15MM added to the end of his contract.

None of those considerations apply to Helsley, who is set to go through arbitration for the third and final time this winter. He’s sure to garner a substantial raise over his $3.8MM salary from the 2024 season after a phenomenal year that’s seen the 30-year-old pitch to a 2.04 ERA (207 ERA+) with an eye-popping 38.2% strikeout rate and an MLB-best 49 saves in 66 1/3 innings of work this year. It’s the third consecutive dominant season for the righty, as he’s now posted a combined 1.83 ERA (227 ERA+) with a 2.35 FIP and 225 strikeouts and 82 saves in 167 2/3 innings of work since he broke out back in 2021.

Helsley should still come at a reasonable financial cost even after accounting for the pay bump he figures to receive this winter, and with a commitment of just one year it’s likely he could be among the most sought-after relief arms on the market this winter if the Cardinals were to make him available. With that being said, Helsley’s utter dominance this season and relatively affordable salary could mean that the Cardinals would prefer to hold onto their closer if they hope to remain competitive in 2025, particularly since he would likely be almost as valuable at the trade deadline next summer so long as he remains healthy and effective.

Circling back to Goldschmidt, the 37-year-old future Hall of Famer is now slated to become a free agent for the first time in his career come November. He’ll do some coming off the worst season of his career, having hit just .245/.301/.412 with a wRC+ of 99 in 153 games this year while setting a career high strikeout rate and a career low walk rate. That brutal platform campaign in conjunction with his age will surely keep Goldschmidt from garnering anything close to what top-of-the-class first basemen like Pete Alonso or even Christian Walker will in free agency this winter, but there’s still enough reason for optimism in his profile to imagine a club with a hole at first base giving the veteran an everyday job.

After all, he’s just two seasons removed from winning the NL MVP award with a dominant offensive performance, and it’s also worth noting that he improved as the season went on. From May 12 onward, Goldschmidt hit a respectable .262/.309/.462 with a 113 wRC+ in 491 trips to the plate. While that’s a far cry from the perennial All-Star he once was, even that level of production would be good for 13th among qualified first basemen this year, ahead of even well-regarded regulars like Ryan Mountcastle and Vinnie Pasquantino.

Poll: Paul Goldschmidt And The Qualifying Offer

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Heading into the 2024 season, the main question surrounding Paul Goldschmidt was one of whether the Cardinals would be able to get an extension done. Interest in a new contract for Goldschmidt was reported as far back as December, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said in January that extension talks could be tabled until early in the season. At the time, Goldschmidt was fresh off a .268/.363/.447 batting line in 154 games. That didn’t come close to his 2022 NL MVP season (.317/.404/.578, 35 homers) — but it was still well north of the league average and made Goldschmidt one of the more productive first basemen in the game.

Fast forward a few months, and the narrative has changed dramatically. Goldschmidt got out to the worst start of his career and seemed wholly unable to recover. He posted below-average offensive numbers in April, May and June, slashing a .225/.294/.361 in 349 plate appearances over that stretch. By measure of wRC+, the perennially excellent Goldschmidt had been 15% worse than an average hitter at the plate.

Even if one looked at the dip from his 2022 production to his 2023 output as the potential beginning of a decline, a drop-off of this magnitude was nonetheless a genuine surprise. Goldschmidt hadn’t simply had some poor luck on balls in play; his strikeout rate spiked to a career-worst 28.7%. His 8.3% walk rate was nowhere near his career mark. Goldschmidt was still hitting the ball hard, but his contact was less frequent and much of that hard contact was coming in the form of hard grounders rather than well-struck liners and flies. Goldschmidt’s 43% ground-ball rate in the season’s first three months was his highest since 2017.

Since that point, things have begun to turn around. Goldschmidt had a modestly productive showing in July (107 wRC+) and has seen his bat truly take off from August onward. He’s hitting .275/.315/.483 since the calendar flipped to July — including a .286/.338/.493 slash since Aug. 1. Again, this isn’t a simple change in fortune on balls in play. Goldschmidt’s 28% strikeout rate from the season’s first three months is down to 23.5% since July 1 — and just 21% since Aug. 1.

Despite that substantial dip in strikeouts, Goldschmidt hasn’t necessarily become more selective at the plate. He’s still not walking nearly as often as he used to — 5.5% since July 1 — nor is he chasing off the plate any less than he did in the season’s first three months. What he has done, however, is become much more aggressive on pitches within the strike zone. Goldschmidt’s typically patient approach led him to swing at just 61.4% of pitches in the strike zone from Opening Day through the end of June. Since then, he’s offered at 68.1% of such pitches. His overall swing rate through three months was at 46.2%, but he’s up to 49.4% in the three months since.

Goldschmidt has had 50 plate appearances end on one pitch this season. He’s hitting .347 and slugging .694 on those pitches. Of those 50, 26 came in the season’s first three months. About 7.4% of his plate appearances lasted one pitch. Since July 1, nearly 10% of his plate appearances have been of the one-pitch variety. It’s not a huge difference, but it lends credence to the fact that Goldschmidt has been more aggressive and been better off for it.

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Goldschmidt (pardon the cliche). His first half looked like that of a player on the decline — mounting strikeouts, lesser contact, and an across-the-board deterioration in his results. The past two-plus months, however, tell another story. Goldschmidt may not be the MVP-level hitter he was just two seasons ago, but he’s been clearly above-average since July, including an outrageous .394/.429/.636 slash in his past 70 plate appearances. His walks are down and may not recover if he maintains his more aggressive approach, but he’s hitting for average and power alike. If Goldschmidt had flipped his two halves, starting this hot and then fading toward league-average, his down season likely wouldn’t have garnered much attention.

As it stands, league-average is precisely where Goldschmidt is at. His .246/.303/.414 batting line comes out to an even 100 wRC+. His OPS+ (98) is only 2% worse than average. An average-hitting first baseman isn’t generally a QO candidate, but if the Cardinals believe Goldschmidt can sustain his late surge, then there’s good reason to make an offer. Even if he accepts, a $21.2MM salary for a player whom they believe can continue in the vicinity of a .275/.315/.483 pace would be defensible. And if he walks, the Cards would of course be entitled to draft compensation. On the flip side, if Goldschmidt were to accept and revert to his first-half form, it’d be a clear misstep that sets the franchise back in 2025 as they look to return to contending.

It all comes down to how much the Cardinals believe in Goldschmidt’s second-half renaissance and how much they’re willing to risk in the name of bolstering their 2025 draft pool. Six months ago, Goldschmidt would’ve seemed like a no-brainer QO recipient. Three months ago, the decision would’ve seemed like a no-brainer — for the opposite reason. Now, the Cardinals will fall somewhere in the middle. Let’s open this up for a poll:

Should the Cardinals give Paul Goldschmidt a qualifying offer?
No 60.65% (4,439 votes)
Yes 39.35% (2,880 votes)
Total Votes: 7,319

Paul Goldschmidt Plans To Continue Playing In 2025

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Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is having the least-productive season of his storied big league career, but the soon-to-be 37-year-old made clear to MLB.com’s John Denton that he has every intention of continuing his career in 2025. The seven-time All-Star was named the National League MVP as recently as 2022, but he’s seen a notable drop-off in virtually every offensive category in 2024 — to the point where he for the first time in his career has been a below-average hitter (99 wRC+, 96 OPS+).

On the season, Goldschmidt carries just a .244/.302/.410 batting line. He’s still popped 20 home runs, but his 27.2% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rates are the worst of his career. To his credit, Goldschmidt has righted the ship of late; over his past 150 plate appearances, he’s slashing a much-improved .295/.342/.532 (141 wRC+). He’s still not walking anywhere near his career 12.7% rate (6.3% during this hot streak), but he’s cut his strikeout rate (23.3%) to be closer to his career levels.

Goldschmidt made no excuses regarding his struggles this year, noting that even spite of solid batted-ball and running metrics via Statcast, “there’s no denying I haven’t played well.” The five-time Silver Slugger winner acknowledged that his struggles have “created some bad habits” with his swing that have been hard to break. Fans of both the Cardinals and Goldschmidt will want to check out the interview in full, as Goldschmidt offers candid reviews of a down season at the plate. Denton also spoke with manager Oli Marmol who said he “loves” Goldschmidt when asked about a potential reunion for the upcoming 2025 season.

Obviously, that won’t be Marmol’s call at the end of the day. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak originally acquired Goldschmidt from the D-backs (in exchange for Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver, Andrew Young and a 2019 competitive balance draft pick the D-backs used to select Dominic Fletcher, whom they traded to acquire righty Cristian Mena this past offseason). The Cardinals quickly extended Goldschmidt on a five-year, $130MM contract, and he’s playing out the final season of what’s proven to be a good deal for the club at the moment.

The Cardinals reportedly have some interest in bringing Goldschmidt back, but there are in-house options to consider as well. Twenty-five-year-old Alec Burleson opened the season with two months of roughly average offense at the plate before catching fire in the summer. He’s now hitting .280/.320/.453 on the season overall. Burleson has primarily served as a corner outfielder and designated hitter in 2024, but he’s not a strong defender in the outfield. A move to first base could be of benefit, particularly if the Cardinals envision another shaky defender, Jordan Walker, as the team’s right fielder in future seasons.

There’s also 27-year-old Luken Baker to consider. While he’s older than the standard “prospect,” Baker bashed 33 home runs in just 84 Triple-A games in 2023 and has swatted another 32 big flies in 108 Triple-A games this season. He’s yet to hit in his tiny sample of 126 big league plate appearances (.202/.325/.356, 30.2% strikeout rate), but Baker’s Triple-A track record of hitting for power is intriguing. At the very least, his right-handed bat could pair with the lefty-swinging Burleson to form a platoon, with both players also seeing some time at designated hitter. Baker has decimated lefties this season, posting a 1.142 OPS and homering in 15 of his 150 plate appearances against them.

A Goldschmidt reunion would limit the playing time for both Burleson and Baker. It’d be understandable if the Cards’ front office wanted to take whatever resources would be put toward a Goldschmidt deal and reallocate them to pitching help. At the same time, if the Cards believe the late surge from Goldschmidt is a portent for a rebound in 2025, then re-signing him on a short-term deal has obvious appeal.

From a payroll vantage point, there’s a compelling case to use the resources elsewhere. The Cardinals’ payroll has landed within a couple million dollars of $180MM in each of the past two seasons ($183MM in 2024), and per RosterResource, they have about $111MM on next year’s books already. That doesn’t include decisions on the matching $12MM options on Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, nor does it include arbitration raises for Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, John King, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Andre Pallante and Nolan Gorman.

Even at a presumably reduced rate from his current $26MM annual salary, Goldschmidt would likely still push the Cardinals north of $150MM (assuming arb raises for the entire class and just one of those two rotation options being picked up) before addressing any other potential offensive upgrades or starting pitching additions. That money could arguably be better spent focusing on other areas and turning first base over to a combination of Burleson and Baker — or perhaps simply a lower-cost free agent option (e.g. Carlos Santana).

Goldschmidt’s future is one of several key decisions for the Cardinals as they look to put disappointing 2023-24 seasons behind them. Last year’s club went 71-91, finishing last place in the NL Central. At 69-69, they’ll finish better than that in 2024, but they’re 5.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot with only 24 games to play, making a postseason berth overwhelmingly unlikely this season as well. That would be their first consecutive postseason misses since a three-year absence from playoff play in 2016-18 and mark just the third time since the turn of the century that St. Louis has missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons.

Cardinals Hoping To Retain Paul Goldschmidt Beyond 2024

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In a recent chat with readers, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch discussed the futures of a handful of pending free agents on the Cardinals roster. Most notable among them is seven-time All Star and 2022 NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt, who Goold noted the club would talk with after the season “about what a return looks like.” Goold went on to compare the situation with Goldschmidt to the one the club experienced with longtime Cardinal Adam Wainwright late in his career, when Goold notes the club allowed him to reach free agency before finalizing a previously agreed-upon deal.

That framing of the situation indicates that there’s a strong mutual interest in Goldschmidt’s stay in St. Louis extending beyond this season. The veteran first baseman, 37 next month, has spent the last six years with the Cardinals after arriving in St. Louis in a trade that brought his tenure with the Diamondbacks to an end one year before he would’ve otherwise been scheduled to reach free agency. While Goldschmidt’s thirties with the Cardinals haven’t been quite as productive as his twenties in Arizona, he’s still be among the games most reliable offensive talents with a .286/.373/.500 slash line (138 wRC+) with St. Louis entering the 2024 campaign.

Given his consistency at the plate and his still-recent MVP campaign in 2022, Goldschmidt entered the 2024 season looking as though he might be one of the offseason’s most attractive offensive talents despite his advanced age. A difficult 2024 campaign has changed that, however, as the veteran has hit just .228/.288/.384 (91 wRC+) in 110 games this season. Age-related decline becomes a concern for most any player as their career advances into their mid-to-late thirties, and for Goldschmidt to have the first below-average offensive season of his career at age 36 surely sets off alarm bells for some interested clubs.

Given Goldschmidt’s struggles this year, it’s easy to see how a reunion could make the most sense for all sides. After all, the Cardinals lack a clear heir to Goldschmidt at first base among their corps of young hitters, which is populated primarily by middle infield and outfield options. Luken Baker is the only first baseman on the 40-man roster controlled for the 2025 season, and the 27-year-old has yet to appear in the big leagues this year after a 33-game cup of coffee in 2023 where he struck out at a 31.3% clip and mustered a wRC+ of just 79. Retaining Goldschmidt would allow the club to keep a respected and decorated veteran who has had success in the recent past in the fold while they sort out long-term options at first base.

Meanwhile, a reunion would offer Goldschmidt a comfortable and familiar place to try and bounce back in 2025 with an organization that has stuck by him as their everyday first baseman even amid his hitting woes this season. It’s also worth noting that there’s some reason for optimism regarding Goldschmidt baked into his more recent performance this season. After an ice cold start to the season where he posted a paltry .530 OPS in 37 games, Goldschmidt has bounced back somewhat with a more respectable .247/.294/.446 in his last 316 trips to the plate. That figure is good for an above average wRC+ of 108.

Setting aside Goldschmidt, Goold goes on to suggest that there’s at least two other pending free agents the Cardinals could explore reunions with this winter: relievers Keynan Middleton and Andrew Kittredge. Of the two, Goold seems to imply that a reunion with Middleton is more likely, adding that there’s “mutual interest” in working out a deal with the 30-year-old who has missed the entire 2024 campaign due to season-ending flexor tendon surgery.

The Cardinals hold a $6MM club option with a $1MM buyout on Middleton’s services for the 2025 campaign, but after the righty missed his first year with the club it wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise to see St. Louis brass decline that option in hopes of re-signing Middleton to a smaller guarantee. The righty posted a 3.38 ERA in 51 games with the White Sox and Yankees last year and was particularly impressive during his time in the Bronx, when he pitched to a 1.88 ERA and struck out 30.4% of opponents. As for Kittredge, the 34-year-old righty has performed solidly in his first season with the club with a 3.12 ERA with a 4.19 FIP in 49 innings of work and will likely be eyeing a raise over the $2.263MM salary he’s earned in his final trip through arbitration this year.

Paul Goldschmidt’s Toughest Stretch As A Cardinal

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The Cardinals are back at the bottom of the NL Central through six weeks. At 15-21, they're ahead of only the Marlins and Rockies in the National League. St. Louis viewed their 2023 last-place finish as an anomaly. They invested in their rotation to try for a quick turnaround, but their current 68-win pace is below where they ended last season.

Their problems aren't quite the same as they were in 2023. Last year, the biggest issues were a starting rotation that couldn't miss bats and a defense that was surprisingly the worst in MLB at turning batted balls into outs. The Cards haven't been great in either area thus far in 2024, but the slight improvements they've made in those facets have been negated by a lifeless offense. At the center of those struggles: Paul Goldschmidt, who is amidst what is by far the worst stretch of his time in St. Louis.

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Cardinals May Wait On Goldschmidt Extension Talks Until Season Begins

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Paul Goldschmidt is entering the last season of the five-year, $130MM extension he signed with the Cardinals back in March 2019, so the star first baseman is on pace to hit agency at age 37.  Team president of baseball operations John Mozeliak addressed Goldschmidt’s future when talking with Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat (links to X) and other reporters today at the Cardinals’ Winter Warm-up fan event, and Mozeliak indicated that contract talks might be held off until beyond Opening Day.

“I think right now, I think everybody just wants to see how this season starts.  You know, obviously, we want to get off on the right track, and then we can address things like that,” Mozeliak said.

Reports surfaced last month about the Cards’ interest in retaining Goldschmidt, with Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch noting that talks might well last into the season, even if the team’s preference was to have Goldschmidt locked up in advance of Opening Day.  In that sense, Mozeliak’s comments today don’t represent a huge shift in the Cardinals’ overall plan to keep Goldschmidt, yet as Jones notes, a lack of talks at all during Spring Training is perhaps “telling” about both the club’s long-term belief in Goldschmidt and/or the Cards’ own ability to contend.

Goldschmidt hit .268/.363/.447 with 25 home runs over 687 plate appearances last season, translating to a 122 wRC+.  These are obviously still very solid numbers, particularly for a player in his age-35 season, yet it did represent a dropoff from Goldschmidt’s NL MVP production (.317/.404/.578 with 35 homers, 176 wRC+) in 2022.  The 122 mark is actually the third-lowest wRC+ Goldschmidt has posted in his 13 Major League seasons, which might be more of a sign of how great he has been over a Cooperstown-level career than a sign of any true regression.

That said, if a player is even able to keep playing at a high level until his late 30’s, sharp and sudden declines aren’t uncommon.  It could be that the Cardinals are just exercising a bit more caution in seeing how Goldschmidt proceeds over the first couple of months before deciding whether or not to make another pricey commitment, even if the first baseman’s next deal will be shorter than five years in length.

The other financial element involved is the Cardinals’ broadcasting contract with Bally Sports Midwest, and parent company Diamond Sports.  While the Cards’ deal runs through the 2032 season, Diamond Sports’ declaration of bankruptcy last year has left the Cardinals as one of the many teams in a state of uncertainty about their TV futures, and the Bally Sports broadcasts might cease once the 2024 campaign is complete.

Discussions about the situation remain ongoing between Diamond Sports and Major League Baseball, though until some resolution is in sight, St. Louis might be keeping spending in check.  Club president Bill DeWitt III said earlier this week that might not have much or any remaining payroll space for any significant moves this offseason, and it stands to reason that those restraints might stretch into any big expenditures on Goldschmidt or others beyond 2024.

The Cardinals’ surprisingly disappointing 71-91 record last season is also certainly a factor, and it seems possible that the wait-and-see approach to an extension is shared by both the team and Goldschmidt himself.  If he has any doubts about St. Louis’ ability to quickly return to contention, Goldschmidt might prefer to enter free agency and seek out a new deal with a more clear-cut contender for 2025.  From the front office’s perspective, if the Cardinals get off to a rough start and might look to again sell at the trade deadline, Goldschmidt would stand out as a big trade chip that could be dealt.  Goldschmidt holds full no-trade protection, though if St. Louis is indeed out of the pennant race by midseason, he might welcome a deadline move to a contender.

St. Louis has around $178MM on the books for 2024 and around $102.7MM currently projected for the 2025 payroll, according to Roster Resource.  Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Willson Contreras, and Steven Matz are the only Cardinals on guaranteed deals through at least 2025, as Goldschmidt can be a free agent, and Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Giovanny Gallegos are signed through 2024 with club options for 2025.

Cardinals Planning To Discuss Extension With Paul Goldschmidt

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In a chat today with readers, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Cardinals will approach first baseman Paul Goldschmidt at some point this offseason with the hope of discussing a contract extension. He says the club prefers to get a deal done before the start of the season but that they will leave the door open for in-season discussions. He adds that neither side expects the conversation to be contentious and the club believes they can extend him through the remainder of his career.

Goldschmidt, 36, has just one year remaining on his contract, an extension he signed with the club in 2019. He will make a salary of $22MM in 2024 and will also get two signing bonus payments of $2.25MM each, one in January and one in July, leaving $26.5MM left to be paid out.

Though he is now into his mid-30s, he has continued to be a key part of the club, winning National League Most Valuable Players honors just last year. His 2023 was unquestionable a drop-off, but that says more about his excellent MVP campaign than anything. Here in 2023, he hit 25 home runs and drew walks in 12.7% of his plate appearances. His .268/.363/.447 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 122, a far cry from his 176 in 2022, but that still indicates he was 22% better than league average. He also stole 11 bases and was got strong marks for his glovework, leading to a tally of 3.7 wins above replacement from FanGraphs and 3.4 from Baseball Reference.

Given that he continues to be a valuable member of the club, it’s understandable why the Cards would want to keep him around. They have generally not been shy about keeping their legendary players around, with Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright a couple of recent examples of players who were continually re-signed through the ends of their respective careers. Albert Pujols was away from the club for a while but returned for a farewell tour in St. Louis before hanging up his cleats.

That points to the club having strong relationships with its star players, with Nolan Arenado having also foregone an opt-out opportunity that many felt was in his best financial interest. If the same is true for Goldschmidt, it’s possible he could follow down the legendary path and stick with the club through the end of his career.

The spring is a common time for extensions, as clubs generally like to use the winter months to focus on building the roster by signing free agents and making trades, leaving discussions with in-house players for after those other matters are settled. The Cards came into this offseason with plenty to do, having already remade their rotation by signing Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, in addition to trading outfielder Tyler O’Neill to the Red Sox. They still want to add to their bullpen and perhaps continue trading from their group of position players, so the talks with Goldschmidt aren’t the priority at this exact moment.

But as mentioned, they do hope to get it done before the season starts, so it will be something that could develop in the New Year or during Spring Training. It’s not terribly uncommon for a veteran to sign a one-year extension to stick around, such as the one Charlie Blackmon and the Rockies recently agreed to or the one-year deals Molina signed with the Cards for 2021 and 2022. But since Goldschmidt continues to produce at such a high level, he may be able to ask for a multi-year deal.

There’s not much precedent for a position player being extended this late in their careers, but there are some recent examples. In August of 2021, Brandon Crawford and the Giants signed a two-year, $32MM deal to cover his age-35 and age-36 seasons. Going a bit further back, Adrian Beltre signed a two-year, $36MM with the Rangers for his age-38 and age-39 seasons. In terms of free agent comparisons, Jose Abreu got a three-year, $58.5MM deal from the Astros going into his age-36 season. Prior to 2021, Justin Turner signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the Dodgers that began with his age-36 campaign. After that deal expired, he was able to get a two years and $21MM plus an opt-out from the Red Sox for his age-38 season.

The financials will be an interesting thing for the Cardinals to balance. Roster Resource estimates their 2024 payroll at $175MM while they already have $103MM committed for 2025, thanks to hefty deals for Arenado, Gray, Miles Mikolas, Willson Contreras and Steven Matz. Adding Goldschmidt will probably put them over $120MM for just six players.

But given their past preference for keeping their marquee players around as long as they keep playing, perhaps they are willing to walk that tightrope to keep Goldy around for a few more years.

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