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Paul Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt Wins NL MVP

By Darragh McDonald and Anthony Franco | November 17, 2022 at 5:49pm CDT

Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has been named the National League’s Most Valuable Player, according to an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. He was followed in the voting by Manny Machado of the Padres and his teammate Nolan Arenado.

Though he’s come close many times, this is the first MVP award for the veteran, who just turned 35 in September. Though he’s older than the typical prime years of most athletes, he had arguably the best campaign of his career in 2022. He hit 35 home runs and produced a .317/.404/.578 batting line. That production was an incredible 77% better than the league average hitter, as evidenced by his 177 wRC+. When combined with his solid defense at first base, he was considered to be worth 7.1 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs and 7.8 in the estimation of Baseball Reference.

Goldschmidt finished second among qualified NL batters in on-base percentage, trailing only Freddie Freeman. He led the league in slugging and tied for fifth in longballs. Along the way, he was named to his seventh All-Star game. Goldschmidt secured a fifth career Silver Slugger award and has appeared on MVP ballots each season going back to 2015. He’s under contract for two more years on the five-year extension he inked shortly after St. Louis acquired him from the Diamondbacks in a franchise-altering trade.

Machado secured a runner-up finish, the highest of his career to date. He’s now gotten into the top five in the voting on four separate occasions, including two of his four seasons in San Diego. He hit .298/.366/.531 with 32 homers and 37 doubles, appearing in 150 games. Machado finished 7th in the NL in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging. He earned his sixth career All-Star nod in the process.

Arenado picked up his 10th straight Gold Glove award this year with a typically excellent season at the hot corner. He also had arguably the best offensive year of his career, putting up a .293/.358/.533 line over 620 plate appearances. Only Goldschmidt and Mookie Betts topped him in slugging, while he finished ninth in on-base percentage. Arenado secured his seventh All-Star selection and fourth top-five MVP finish.

Goldschmidt picked up 22 of 30 first-place votes, while Machado secured seven votes. Arenado was the other player who got a first-place nod. Freeman finished in fourth overall and was penciled into six ballots in second place. Betts rounded out the top five, while Mets star Pete Alonso (who finished eighth) was the only other player to get a second-place vote. Austin Riley, J.T. Realmuto, Alonso, Francisco Lindor and Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara placed sixth through tenth, respectively.

Full voting breakdown available here.

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Newsstand San Diego Padres St. Louis Cardinals Austin Riley Francisco Lindor Freddie Freeman J.T. Realmuto Manny Machado Mookie Betts Nolan Arenado Paul Goldschmidt Peter Alonso Sandy Alcantara

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Cardinals To Place Goldschmidt, Arenado, Romine On Restricted List; Matz Placed On 15-Day Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | July 24, 2022 at 3:56pm CDT

3:56PM: Matz has a torn MCL in his left knee, MLB.com’s John Denton reports (via Twitter).  Based similar injuries to other players, this will likely mean at least a 4-6 week absence for Matz, though it isn’t yet known if he’ll require surgery.

3:38PM: The Cardinals announced some roster moves today, one in regards to today’s game and three others in advance of their upcoming two-game series in Toronto.  Most immediately, left-hander Steven Matz was placed on the 15-day injured list due to a left knee sprain, and righty James Naile was called up from Triple-A Memphis.

Before Tuesday’s game against the Blue Jays, the Cards will place Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Austin Romine on the restricted list.  The trio aren’t vaccinated, and thus become the latest players ineligible to cross the border due to Canadian federal vaccine mandates.  Goldschmidt, Arenado, and Romine will forfeit two games’ worth of salary for the missed time.  Catcher Ivan Herrera, utilityman Cory Spangenberg, and outfielder Conner Capel are expected to be added to the roster as replacements.

Most teams traveling to Toronto this season have had to work around at least a couple of vaccine-related absences, with the Royals (who had 10 players on their restricted list) representing the extreme end of the scale.  While St. Louis is missing “only” three players, however, losing superstars like Goldschmidt and Arenado for even two games certainly isn’t an ideal situation.  Losing Romine also thins out a catching depth chart that is still missing the injured Yadier Molina.

Johan Oviedo’s status for the Blue Jays series is also in question, as the Cards reliever and Cuba native has an expired passport.  Manager Oliver Marmol told reporters (including MLB.com’s John Denton) that Oviedo might still be able to make it if he is able to obtain a special temporary waiver from the Canadian consulate in Miami.

While Matz wouldn’t have pitched in the series since he just started yesterday, he’ll also miss a chance to return to Toronto after pitching for the Jays in 2021.  Matz was only activated from the 15-day IL earlier this week, after missing two months due to a shoulder impingement.  Unfortunately, the southpaw then hurt his knee in his very first start back, as Matz took an awkward step while trying to field a grounder in the sixth inning of Saturday’s 6-3 victory over the Reds.  Matz still earned the win, allowing two runs on three hits and a walk in his 5 1/3 innings of work while striking out seven.

It was a solid outing in what has been an otherwise tough season for Matz, between his earlier injury and his inconsistent work over his first nine outings.  Even with Saturday’s game factored in, Matz still has a 5.70 ERA over 42 2/3 innings in his first season in a Cardinals uniform.  However, a 3.13 SIERA and strong strikeout and walk rates indicate that Matz has also been pretty unlucky, as he isn’t getting much good fortune on the BABIP (.336) and strand rate (66.2%) fronts.

Saturday’s start was a step in the right direction, and yet it will now be some time before Matz can follow up on that performance.  The lefty will undergo more tests and imaging, and a clearer timeline could soon be known about when Matz might be able to get back on a mound.

The Cardinals were already rumored to be looking into rotation help at the deadline, so Matz’s IL status will likely only deepen the team’s needs.  In the short term, however, St. Louis only has five games over the next eight days, so all of these off-days can allow the Cards to get by with less than five starters.  Dakota Hudson is tentatively slated to be activated from his own 15-day IL stint next weekend, after hitting the IL on July 15 due to a neck strain.

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St. Louis Cardinals Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Austin Romine Conner Capel Cory Spangenberg Ivan Herrera James Naile Nolan Arenado Paul Goldschmidt Steven Matz

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MLB Announces 2022 All-Star Starters

By Darragh McDonald | July 8, 2022 at 10:30pm CDT

Major League Baseball announced the starting lineups for the 2022 All-Star Game this evening. The starting lineups are determined by fan vote. This year’s All-Star Game will take place at Dodger Stadium on Tuesday, July 19. The starting pitchers and reserves will be announced at a later date.

American League

  • Catcher: Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays (1st selection)
  • First base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (2nd selection)
  • Second base: Jose Altuve, Astros (8th selection)
  • Third base: Rafael Devers, Red Sox (2nd selection)
  • Shortstop: Tim Anderson, White Sox (2nd selection)
  • Outfield: Aaron Judge, Yankees (4th selection)
  • Outfield: Mike Trout, Angels (10th selection)
  • Outfield: Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees (5th selection)
  • Designated hitter: Shohei Ohtani, Angels (2nd selection)

National League

  • Catcher: Willson Contreras, Cubs (3rd selection)
  • First base: Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals (8th selection)
  • Second base: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Marlins (1st selection)
  • Third base: Manny Machado, Padres (6th selection)
  • Shortstop: Trea Turner, Dodgers (2nd selection)
  • Outfield: Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves (3rd selection)
  • Outfield: Mookie Betts, Dodgers (6th selection)
  • Outfield: Joc Pederson, Giants (2nd selection)
  • Designated hitter: Bryce Harper, Phillies (7th selection)
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2022 All-Star Game Aaron Judge Alejandro Kirk Bryce Harper Giancarlo Stanton Jazz Chisholm Joc Pederson Jose Altuve Manny Machado Mike Trout Mookie Betts Paul Goldschmidt Rafael Devers Ronald Acuna Shohei Ohtani Tim Anderson Trea Turner Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Willson Contreras

80 comments

2021 Gold Glove Winners Announced

By Mark Polishuk | November 7, 2021 at 9:11pm CDT

The 2021 Gold Glove winners were announced tonight, with plenty of Cardinal Red to be found amidst the gold.  The Cardinals became the first team to ever have five players capture Gold Gloves, underlining the tremendous all-around defensive effort that helped St. Louis reach the postseason.  Ironically, the only nominated Cardinals player who didn’t win was the most decorated name of the group — nine-time winner Yadier Molina.

The A’s, Royals, Astros, and the World Series champion Braves also had multiple winners, with each club boasting two Gold Glovers.  Ten of the 18 winners captured their first Gold Gloves, though some veteran winners continued to shine.  The most notable of the multiple-time winners is Nolan Arenado, who becomes the 23rd player to ever win nine or more Gold Gloves in his career.  Arenado still has plenty of time to continue his climb up the all-time list, yet catching 16-time winner Brooks Robinson for the all-time third base record may be a tall order even for Arenado.

Here is the full list of winners, as well as the other two nominated finalists at each position….

NL Catcher: Jacob Stallings, Pirates (1st career Gold Glove)
Yadier Molina/Cardinals, J.T. Realmuto/Phillies

NL First Base: Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals (4th)
Freddie Freeman/Braves, Max Muncy/Dodgers

NL Second Base: Tommy Edman, Cardinals (1st)
Ozzie Albies/Braves, Kolten Wong/Brewers

NL Third Base: Nolan Arenado, Cardinals (9th)
Manny Machado/Padres, Ryan McMahon/Rockies

NL Shortstop: Brandon Crawford, Giants (4th)
Francisco Lindor/Mets, Kevin Newman/Pirates

NL Left Field: Tyler O’Neill, Cardinals (2nd)
David Peralta/Diamondbacks, AJ Pollock/Dodgers

NL Center Field: Harrison Bader, Cardinals (1st)
Jackie Bradley Jr.
/Brewers, Bryan Reynolds/Pirates

NL Right Field: Adam Duvall, Braves/Marlins (1st)
Mookie Betts/Dodgers, Mike Yastrzemski/Giants

NL Pitcher: Max Fried/Braves (2nd)
Zach Davies/Cubs, Zack Wheeler/Phillies

AL Catcher: Sean Murphy, Athletics (1st)
Martin Maldonado/Astros, Salvador Perez/Royals

AL First Base: Yuli Gurriel, Astros (1st)
Matt Olson/Athletics, Jared Walsh/Angels

AL Second Base: Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (1st)
David Fletcher/Angels, Whit Merrifield/Royals

AL Third Base: Matt Chapman, Athletics (3rd)
Jose Ramirez/Guardians, Joey Wendle/Rays

AL Shortstop: Carlos Correa, Astros (1st)
J.P. Crawford/Mariners, Andrelton Simmons/Twins

AL Left Field: Andrew Benintendi, Royals (1st)
Randy Arozarena/Rays, Lourdes Gurriel Jr./Blue Jays

AL Center Field: Michael A. Taylor, Royals (1st)
Kevin Kiermaier/Rays, Myles Straw/Guardians

AL Right Field: Joey Gallo, Yankees/Rangers (2nd)
Hunter Renfroe/Red Sox, Kyle Tucker/Astros

AL Pitcher: Dallas Keuchel, White Sox (5th)
Jose Berrios/Blue Jays and Twins, Zack Greinke/Astros

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Atlanta Braves Houston Astros Kansas City Royals New York Yankees Oakland Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Toronto Blue Jays Adam Duvall Andrew Benintendi Brandon Crawford Carlos Correa Dallas Keuchel Harrison Bader Jacob Stallings Joey Gallo Marcus Semien Matt Chapman Max Fried Michael A. Taylor Nolan Arenado Paul Goldschmidt Sean Murphy Tommy Edman Yuli Gurriel

198 comments

NL Injury Notes: Wong, Akiyama, Goldy, Davis

By TC Zencka and Connor Byrne | April 8, 2021 at 7:34pm CDT

Brewers second baseman Kolten Wong departed the team’s game against the Cardinals on Thursday after re-aggravating his left oblique, manager Craig Counsell told Andrew Wagner of the Wisconsin State Journal and other reporters. It’s the same issue that kept Wong from playing Wednesday, and Counsell said (via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) there’s a “distinct possibility” that he’ll require a trip to the injured list. Wong, previously with St. Louis, joined the Brewers on a two-year, $18MM contract during the offseason. If he does have to miss time shortly into his Brewers tenure, it would be another blow to the middle infield depth of a team that traded Orlando Arcia to Atlanta earlier this week. The Brewers did add veteran Dee Strange-Gordon on a minor league contract Thursday, though Daniel Robertson – who replaced Wong when he exited – would be the favorite to handle most of the reps at the keystone.

  • The Reds are planning to have Shogo Akiyama back with the team in early-to-mid May, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). Akiyama started slowly for the Red last season, but he was able to adjust and post a strong second half. At least so far, however, the Reds have managed just fine without him. Tyler Naquin has helped fill the void with a massive start to the season. With Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker, Nick Castellanos, and Aristides Aquino on the roster, the Reds are in no real hurry to upset the apple cart, so to speak.
  • Paul Goldschmidt was scratched from today’s Cardinals game because of lower back tightness, per MLB.com’s Zachary Silver (via Twitter). The move was precautionary, so presumably the Cardinals don’t expect this to lead to an IL placement. Manager Mike Shildt said after the game that Goldschmidt’s day to day, and the Cardinals will know more about his status Friday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News tweets.
  • The Mets received some good news on J.D. Davis. X-rays came back negative on his bruised left hand, Tim Healey of Newsday relays (via Twitter). Davis does not appear to be headed to the injured list, though he remained out of the lineup for the Mets’ home opener today. Jonathan Villar took his place at the hot corner. Villar got the start at third base today for the first time since 2016. Luis Guillorme would also be in line to see a bump in playing time while Davis is on the shelf. It’s not clear, however, how much time Davis will miss.
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Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers New York Mets Notes St. Louis Cardinals J.D. Davis Kolten Wong Paul Goldschmidt Shogo Akiyama

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Quick Hits: Cubs, Hoerner, Opening Day, Home Run Leaders By State

By TC Zencka | December 26, 2020 at 12:32pm CDT

Nico Hoerner earned a Gold Glove nomination after notching five Defensive Runs Saved in just over 200 innings at the keystone in 2020, but his versatility will make him more than a bit player for the Cubs moving forward. Thanks to his plus glovework, the 23-year-old was worth 0.7 bWAR in 2020 despite slashing .222/.312/.259. His defensive prowess will keep his name on the lineup card while his bat works to catch up, writes Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times. Hoerner played five positions including centerfield – the Cubs’ most glaring long-and-short-term hole. Ian Happ was the bulk starter in center in 2020, but he could move to left now that Kyle Schwarber was non-tendered. The Cubs are likely to add at least another name to their outfield mix, but don’t be surprised to see Hoerner continue to get looks there in the spring while competing with David Bote for regular second base reps.

As we look forward to the new year, let’s see what else is happening around the sport…

  • With two COVID-19 vaccines now on the market, owners are considering a push to delay the season opener until May. In their minds, a significant enough number in vaccinations could justify the delay, writes Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. Players have thus far resisted any attempts to push back the start of the season, however. The MLBPA wants a 162-game season rather than face another year of prorated pay. With coronavirus cases still on the rise, however, it’s prudent for MLB to take whatever precautions necessary to limit the risk of breakouts in 2021.
  • MLB.com’s Director of Research and Development Daren Willman put together a fun chart to peruse this holiday season (via Twitter). Williams posted the current home run leaders by birth state, and there are definitely some places for a young go-getter to take their local crown. Maine, Alaska, and New Hampshire each have career leaders with less than 100 home runs, while Duke Sims landed exactly at the century mark to leader all Utahans. Paul Goldschmidt (Delaware), Bryce Harper (Nevada), Kurt Suzuki (Hawaii), Mike Trout (New Jersey), and Ryan Zimmerman (North Carolina) could add to their leads in 2021, while the recently-retired Alex Gordon ended his career as Nebraska’s all-time home run king. Executive Director of the MLBPA Tony Clark also makes the list as Kansas’ all-time leader.
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Chicago Cubs MLBPA Alex Gordon Bryce Harper Coronavirus Kurt Suzuki Mike Trout Nico Hoerner Paul Goldschmidt Ryan Zimmerman Tony Clark

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Paul Goldschmidt Undergoes Elbow Surgery

By Connor Byrne | October 28, 2020 at 5:31pm CDT

Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt recently underwent surgery to have a bone spur taken out of his right elbow, according to president of baseball operations John Mozeliak (via Jeff Jones of the Belleville-News Democrat).

Goldschmidt is recovering well from his procedure, which is welcome news for a Cardinals team that can’t afford to go without him. After having a pedestrian season (by his lofty standards) in 2019, Goldschmidt returned to form in a big way this past year. The 33-year-old took 231 trips to the plate and slashed .304/.417/.466 with six home runs, reminding the Cardinals why they paid a hefty price to the Diamondbacks to acquire Goldschmidt heading into 2019.

Goldschmidt was easily the Cardinals’ main offensive threat this year, and barring a major acquisition(s) over the winter, that will remain the case next season. Despite Goldy’s best efforts, the Cardinals only finished 19th in wRC+ (93), and most of their regulars recorded below-average numbers at the plate.

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St. Louis Cardinals Paul Goldschmidt

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Gold Glove Nominees Announced

By TC Zencka | October 22, 2020 at 3:20pm CDT

The 2020 Rawlings Glove Glove Award finalists have been released, with the Cubs netting the most nominations with seven. The Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Brewers, Rays, and Red Sox were shut out.

The awards for defensive prowess will be handed out based on defensive metrics alone this year, since managers and coaches weren’t able to see players outside their regional bubble. Moving to a metrics-based system, even for a year, certainly make for interesting television, especially since these awards can make an impact on arbitration cases. Considering the uncertainty of a 60-game season, awards could carry greater weight than usual in those proceedings, thought that’s just speculation. Without further ado, here are this year’s nominees:

AL Pitcher

  • Griffin Canning (LAA)
  • Kenta Maeda (MIN)
  • Zach Plesac (CLE)

NL Pitcher

  • Max Fried (ATL)
  • Kyle Hendricks (CHC)
  • Alec Mills (CHC)

AL Catcher

  • Yasmani Grandal (CHW)
  • James McCann (CHW)
  • Roberto Perez (CLE)

NL Catcher

  • Tucker Barnhart (CIN)
  • Willson Contreras (CHC)
  • Jacob Stallings (PIT)

AL First Base

  • Yuli Gurriel (HOU)
  • Matt Olson (OAK)
  • Evan White (SEA)

NL First Base

  • Brandon Belt (SF)
  • Paul Goldschmidt (STL)
  • Anthony Rizzo (CHC)

AL Second Base

  • Cesar Hernandez (CLE)
  • Danny Mendick (CHW)
  • Jonathan Schoop (DET)
  • Nicky Lopez (KC)

NL Second Base

  • Adam Frazier (PIT)
  • Nico Hoerner (CHC)
  • Kolten Wong (STL)

AL Third Base

  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa (TEX)
  • Yoan Moncada (CHW)
  • Gio Urshela (NYY)

NL Third Base

  • Brian Anderson (MIA)
  • Nolan Arenado (COL)
  • Manny Machado (SD)

AL Shortstop

  • Carlos Correa (HOU)
  • J.P. Crawford (SEA)
  • Niko Goodrum (DET)

NL Shortstop

  • Javier Baez (CHC)
  • Miguel Rojas (MIA)
  • Dansby Swanson (ATL)

AL Left Field

  • Alex Gordon (KC)
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (TOR)
  • Kyle Tucker (HOU)

NL Left Field

  • Shogo Akiyama (CIN)
  • David Peralta (ARI)
  • Tyler O’Neill (STL)

AL Centerfield

  • Byron Buxton (MIN)
  • Ramon Laureano (OAK)
  • Luis Robert (CHW)

NL Centerfield

  • Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)
  • Cody Bellinger (LAD)
  • Trent Grisham (SD)

AL Right Field

  • Clint Frazier (NYY)
  • Joey Gallo (TEX)
  • Anthony Santander (BAL)

NL Right Field

  • Mookie Betts (LAD)
  • Charlie Blackmon (COL)
  • Jason Heyward (CHC)

Nicky Lopez of the Royals was originally left off the list, but he is in fact a nominee at second base, one of four nominations at the keystone in the American League. It’s the only position with four nominations.

There are a few other interesting things of note. Perennial candidates like Andrelton Simmons and Matt Chapman did not make the list this year due to shortened seasons, nor did last season’s Outs Above Average leader Victor Robles. Both Gurriel brothers earned nominations this year, with the younger Lourdes (LF) joining perennial candidate Yuli (1B).

There are also a couple of largely part-time players that made the cut, like Hoerner of the Cubs and Mendick for the White Sox. Neither was the everyday second baseman, but they did reach the inning minimum of 265 total defensive innings. They qualified at second because that’s where they played the most innings. Mendick, for example, registered just 226 innings at second, but with 27 innings at third and 15 at shortstop, he ended the year with 268 total defensive innings played.

Catchers required a minimum of 29 games, which is how we got a pair of White Sox catchers making the top-3. Pitchers had to throw a minimum of 50 innings.

The winners will be selected using the SABR Defensive Index and announced on November 3rd, per sabr.org.

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Kansas City Royals Television Adam Frazier Alec Mills Alex Gordon Andrelton Simmons Anthony Rizzo Anthony Santander Brandon Belt Brian Anderson Byron Buxton Carlos Correa Cesar Hernandez Charlie Blackmon Clint Frazier Cody Bellinger Danny Mendick Dansby Swanson David Peralta Evan White Griffin Canning Ian Anderson Isiah Kiner-Falefa J.P. Crawford Jacob Stallings James McCann Jason Heyward Javier Baez Joey Gallo Jonathan Schoop Kenta Maeda Kolten Wong Kyle Hendricks Kyle Tucker Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Luis Robert Manny Machado Matt Chapman Matt Olson Max Fried Miguel Rojas Mookie Betts Nicky Lopez Nico Hoerner Niko Goodrum Nolan Arenado Paul Goldschmidt Ramon Laureano Roberto Perez Ronald Acuna Shogo Akiyama Trent Grisham Tucker Barnhart Victor Robles Willson Contreras Yasmani Grandal Yoan Moncada Yuli Gurriel Zach Plesac

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Cardinals Health Notes: Mikolas, Goldschmidt

By Anthony Franco | July 5, 2020 at 10:34am CDT

Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas received a platelet-rich plasma injection back in February, but he’s continued to make progress over the past few months. He’s apparently nearing full recovery, as he tells reporters, including Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, that he anticipates being in the club’s season-opening rotation.

Mikolas will throw approximately 40 pitches to live hitters in an intrasquad game early next week, Hummel adds. That seemingly represents the final step in his build-up toward readiness for the regular season.

Also ready for the season opener is Paul Goldschmidt. Goldy was nagged a bit by a sore right elbow in the first iteration of Spring Training, Hummel notes. Nearly four months later, Goldschmidt tells Hummel his elbow is back to 100 percent. The 32-year-old’s first season in St. Louis was a bit of a down year relative to Goldschmidt’s lofty standards. A fully healthy season from the star first baseman would go a long way towards the Cards’ hopes of repeating as NL Central champions.

2020 will mark the first year of a five-year, $130MM contract extension Goldschmidt signed at the outset of the 2019 season. Whereas Goldy might not have opened this season at full health had it begun in March as planned, it seems he has generally benefited from the three-month stoppage, allowing his elbow to get back to where it should be.

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St. Louis Cardinals Miles Mikolas Paul Goldschmidt

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How Worried Should The Cardinals Be About Paul Goldschmidt?

By Mark Polishuk | May 2, 2020 at 10:58pm CDT

The Cardinals reached the 2019 NLCS on the strength of their pitching and defense, as the team’s offensive efforts could best be described as middle of the pack.  After letting Marcell Ozuna leave in free agency and trading Jose Martinez to the Rays, St. Louis did more to subtract than add from the lineup during the offseason, as Brad Miller and the re-signed Matt Wieters were the only position players inked to Major League contracts.

Young players like Tommy Edman, Harrison Bader, Lane Thomas, Tyler O’Neill, and (eventually) top prospect Dylan Carlson are expected to make up some of this offensive slack as they grow into being big league regulars.  If and when the 2020 season gets underway, however, the Cards are also counting on several underachieving veteran bats — i.e. Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina — to get back to form.

At the very least, Paul Goldschmidt performed markedly better than that group.  The six-time All Star’s first season in St. Louis saw him hit .260/.346/.476 with 34 homers over 682 plate appearances.  This worked out to a 113 OPS+ and 116 wRC+, both of which ranked second on the team (behind Edman) among Cards batters with at least 349 PA.  Goldschmidt also came up big in the Cardinals’ five-game triumph over the Braves in the NLDS, posting a 1.383 OPS over 23 plate appearances to help lead St. Louis to its first postseason series victory since 2014.

All in all, it was a very solid showing for a veteran hitter in his age-31 season.  However, “very solid” is not what the Cardinals were expecting from Goldschmidt, especially given their major investment in his future during the 2018-19 offseason.

The Cards paid a hefty price to acquire Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks in December 2018, sending Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly, minor league infielder Andy Young, and a Competitive Balance Round B pick in the 2020 draft (that 75th overall pick was used on Dominic Fletcher, a strong defensive outfielder ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 20th-best prospect in Arizona’s farm system).  It was a lot to give up for just one year of Goldschmidt’s services, though the Cardinals kept the slugger away from free agency by signing him to a five-year, $130MM extension last spring, locking Goldschmidt up for the 2020-24 seasons.

It was the priciest contract in Cardinals history, topping the seven-year, $120MM deal given to Matt Holliday in the 2009-10 offseason.  The Holliday contract, incidentally, is widely considered to be one of the best nine-figure free agent deals in baseball history — entering his age-30 season at the time of the agreement, Holliday remained a very productive player until almost the very end of the seven-year pact, as injuries began to take their toll.  He was limited to 703 PA over the last two seasons (2015-16) of his Cardinals contract, though Holliday still managed a 113 OPS+ and 115 wRC+ during that stretch.

Some might call this a “very solid showing” for an injury-plagued Holliday in his age 35-36 seasons….especially considering that it essentially matched what the 31-year-old Goldschmidt did over only slightly fewer plate appearances in 2019.

Granted, that observation is probably better served to illustrate that Holliday was a very underrated player moreso than it was to hint that Goldschmidt is already in a decline phase.  Still, considering how sharply Goldschmidt’s 2019 numbers dropped off from his superstar-level production in Arizona, the Cardinals can’t be happy about already having to consider if he has already peaked.

From 2013-18, Goldschmidt batted .301/.406/.541 over 3944 PA for the Diamondbacks, hitting 181 homers and posting a 149 wRC+/150 OPS+.  His 2019 campaign, therefore, marked easily the worst season of seven-year span, and Goldschmidt also posted the lowest batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, walk rate (11.4%), and BABIP (.302) of those seven years in 2019, while generating his second-highest strikeout rate (24.3%).

As per Statcast numbers that date back to 2015, Goldschmidt also posted his lowest hard-hit ball rate (42.4%), exit velocity (90.1 mph) and xwOBA (.361) of the Statcast era.  His xwOBA is higher than his .346 wOBA, however, and since Goldschmidt had never previously enjoyed less than a .340 BABIP in any of his full Major League seasons, there is some element of bad luck to his 2019 results.  As MLBTR’s Connor Byrne pointed out last July, however, Goldschmidt’s sprint speed has been in decline as he has gotten older, which has been borne out in his dwindling stolen base totals and, by extension, his ability to beat out grounders and keep up those inflated BABIP numbers.

Connor’s piece (titled “The Surprisingly Disappointing Paul Goldschmidt”) was published on July 2….which, in classic reverse-jinx form, ended up being just about the nadir of Goldschmidt’s season.  After posting a .742 OPS from Opening Day through July 2, Goldschmidt proceeded to hit .274/.354/.554 over his final 326 PA.  It marked the second straight year that Goldschmidt rebounded from tough beginning to a season, as he had only a .721 OPS through his first 243 plate appearances of the 2018 campaign before crushing it to the tune of a whopping 1.040 OPS over his 447 remaining PA.

It’s possible St. Louis could look at those 2018 numbers and think that Goldschmidt might just be evolving into a slow-start type of player.  And again, it should be noted that Goldschmidt in no way was a bad player in 2019, with a 2.9 fWAR.  The issue is that the Cardinals were certainly counting on Goldschmidt’s prime to last at least a couple of years into his extension, not see it potentially already end before his extension even begins.

As a what-if, let’s imagine Goldschmidt hadn’t inked that new deal with the Cards and instead tested free agency.  On the heels of his 2019 performance and going into his age-32 season, he wouldn’t have come anywhere close to five years and $130MM on the open market.  Jose Abreu was the only other major name in the first base market, and the unusual nature of Abreu’s relationship with the White Sox makes him something of an outlier rather than as a Goldschmidt comp.  Abreu openly wanted to remain in Chicago, to the point that he accepted the team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer and then signed a further extension through the 2022 season (an extra two years and $32.2MM).

Abreu is a year older than Goldschmidt and doesn’t have such a long track record of elite performance.  Yet, considering how many felt the White Sox were generous in their extension with Abreu, could something in the neighborhood of a three-year guarantee for $50MM-$60MM have been Goldschmidt’s ceiling in free agency?  Teams are less willing than ever to pay a premium for anything below top-level offense from a first base-only player, and it’s likely multiple clubs would have been worried by Goldschmidt’s 2019.

Plus, a qualifying offer would have also been attached to Goldschmidt’s services, and it’s not out of the question that he could have himself accepted the $17.8MM QO as a form of a pillow contract.  On the other hand, he also might have been wary about leaving any further potential long-term money on the table since his early-career extension with the Diamondbacks ended up being a bargain for the club.  Goldschmidt and his representatives might have looked for a multi-year deal that, ideally, contained an opt-out after the first year, allowing Goldschmidt to re-enter the market if he did indeed prove that 2019 was an aberration.

In any case, the qualifying offer could have potentially helped the Cardinals in re-signing Goldschmidt at a much lower price than $130MM.  Or, while walking away from Goldschmidt entirely would have been bold given how much they sent to the D’Backs, the Cards could have looked elsewhere and, in this scenario, had $130MM in future funds to allocate to another offensive player.  Perhaps St. Louis could have made a big push for Anthony Rendon, or maybe outbid the Twins for Josh Donaldson (a longtime Cardinals target).

It’s all total speculation, of course, as Goldschmidt is on the Cards’ books through the 2024 season.  Of all the veterans St. Louis is relying on once baseball eventually gets underway, the length and cost of Goldschmidt’s contract make him the player the Cardinals most strongly hope can get back on track.

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MLBTR Originals St. Louis Cardinals Paul Goldschmidt

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