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AL Central Notes: Twins, McKenzie, Greene, White Sox

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The Twins shuffled their bullpen around a bit today as the club announced that right-hander Jorge Lopez had been reinstated from the injured list. The former All Star was placed on the 15-day IL last month for mental health reasons and told reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com) that he’s feeling good about where he’s at as he returns to the mound while expressing appreciation for the organization’s support during his IL stint.

The 30-year-old righty broke out in a big way with the Orioles last season, posting a 1.68 ERA and 2.99 FIP in 48 1/3 innings before Baltimore shipped him to Minnesota at the trade deadline for a package including 2023 relief standout Yennier Cano. Since joining the Twins, Lopez has struggled to a 4.71 ERA and 5.37 FIP in 49 2/3 innings. Lopez, who has two seasons of team control left through arbitration, will look to get his Twins career on track going forward this season as part of a Twins bullpen currently relying on Emilio Pagan, Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran in the late innings.

Lopez’s return isn’t the only change in the Twins bullpen on the horizon, however, as manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters, including The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman, that righty pitching prospect Jordan Balazovic, who had recently been pitching in long relief out of the major league bullpen, will be shortened up and used as a more traditional reliever going forward. Balazovic has impressed in his first call-up to the big leagues this season, with a 1.23 ERA in 7 1/3 innings across six appearances.

More from around the AL Central…

  • Guardians right-hander Triston McKenzie will look to recover from last month’s UCL sprain without going under the knife, per The Athletic’s Zack Meisel. Meisel notes that the 25-year-old righty will be shut down for three more weeks but that Cleveland is hopeful McKenzie will be able to return to the big league mound at some point this season. The prospect of McKenzie returning this season is surely a tantalizing one for Guardians fans, as the young right-hander broke out in a big way last season with a 2.96 ERA in 191 1/3 innings of work. With McKenzie on the shelf, Cleveland is currently utilizing a rotation of Shane Bieber, Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale, Tanner Bibee, and Gavin Williams.
  • Tigers outfielder Riley Greene began a rehab assignment with the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Toledo yesterday, with Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic among those noting that he’ll be in the lineup tomorrow. That Greene is seemingly nearing a return is fantastic news for the Tigers, who returned left-hander Tarik Skubal from the injured list today and are surely hoping to receive a similar boost from the return of Greene. The 22-year-old outfielder has posted a 127 wRC+ in 224 plate appearances this season in conjunction with stellar center field defense.
  • The White Sox announced today that they had recalled outfielder Oscar Colas to the major league roster. Colas made the club’s Opening Day roster this season as the primary right fielder but struggled to a slash line of just .211/.265/.276 in 84 plate appearances before returning to Triple-A. He’s hit well with the club’s affiliate in Charlotte since then, however, boasting a solid .293/.359/.508 slash line in 212 plate appearances. That performance has seeming earned Colas another shot in right at the big league level, where he’ll likely share time with Gavin Sheets going forward.

Tigers Notes: Faedo, Skubal, Greene

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The Tigers placed right-hander Alex Faedo on the 15-day injured list this afternoon (retroactive to May 31) with right middle finger discomfort, the club announced. No corresponding move to replace Faedo on the roster has been announced. Earlier today, the club described the issue as tenderness in his right middle fingernail, noting that the young righty was receiving daily treatment for the issue. The move will keep Faedo out of the rotation for at least two weeks, though no timetable for his return has been announced.

The club’s first round pick in the 2018 draft, Faedo made his MLB debut last season, posting a 5.53 ERA and 4.62 FIP over twelve starts. With a strikeout rate of just 18% against a 10.2% walk rate, Faedo’s first foray into the big leagues left much to be desired, leaving him to start the 2023 campaign in Triple-A. Over five starts at the level, he impressed with a 2.50 ERA in 18 innings of work with a 27.9% strikeout rate and a 5.9% walk rate, earning himself a promotion back into the big league rotation at the beginning of May.

Through five starts in 2023, the results appeared to be more of the same on a surface level, with a 5.52 ERA and a 4.51 FIP in 26 innings of work. With that being said, underlying metrics indicate that Faedo may have taken a step forward prior to his injury. While his .232 BABIP this season is surely due for regression, the massive 17.6% rate at which Faedo’s fly balls leave the yard for home runs is likely due for regression of its own, as is his unbelievably low 44.9% strand rate. What’s more, Faedo’s strikeout and walk issues from 2022 seem to have been corrected so far in 2023, as Faedo has struck out a respectable 25.2% of batters faced while allowing just two walks total in his 26 innings of work.

Given the signs that better days may be ahead for Faedo, the Tigers are sure to miss his presence in a rotation that currently sports Matthew Boyd, Michael Lorenzen, Joey Wentz, and Reese Olson. Faedo joins Eduardo Rodriguez and Spencer Turnbull as starts who have gone on the IL in the past month for Detroit, leaving the club in need of another starter before Tuesday’s game against the Phillies. Garrett Hill is an option on the 40-man roster, but the 27-year-old righty has been used mostly out of the bullpen in 2023, having pitched more than three innings just once all season.

While both left-hander Tarik Skubal and right-hander Matt Manning are making progress rehabbing from their own injuries, neither seems particularly close to a return. Skubal is set to begin a rehab assignment with High-A West Michigan tomorrow, as noted by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, but after undergoing surgery last August that has kept him from pitching competitively to this point, figures to need a relatively lengthy rehab start in order to prepare for his return to the major league mound. Manning, meanwhile, is not yet scheduled for a rehab assignment, indicating he could be behind Skubal in his rehab process.

One positive piece of injury news for Tigers fans comes from Riley Greene, who Chris McCosky of The Detroit News notes had his left fibula injury downgraded from a stress fracture to a stress reaction in Detroit’s recent medical report. While the news doesn’t change Greene’s expected timetable for return, it’s nonetheless a reassuring sign that his injury is less severe than originally thought.

A former consensus top-5 prospect in the entire sport, Greene has broken out in his sophomore campaign with a .296/.362/.443 slash line, excellent center field defense, and a perfect six-for-six record in stolen base attempts. The Tigers are relying on the recently-acquired Jake Marisnick in center field while Greene is on the shelf.

Tigers Place Riley Greene On Injured List Due To Stress Reaction In Fibula

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10:00am: The Tigers have formally announced Greene’s placement on the injured list and the selection of Marisnick’s contract. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Marisnick, Detroit transferred righty Trey Wingenter from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. Wingenter has already missed five weeks due to tendinitis in his throwing shoulder. The move to the 60-day IL doesn’t reset his IL requirements, so he’ll be eligible for reinstatement late next month.

9:30am: The Tigers have placed center fielder Riley Greene on the 10-day injured list with a stress fracture in his left fibula, tweets Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic. Greene exited last night’s game with discomfort in his lower leg, and a subsequent MRI revealed the injury. There’s no firm timetable on his recovery just yet, as he’s headed for a second opinion, but the injury figures to sideline him well beyond that 10-day minimum.

Just hours before Greene suffered the injury, the Tigers had acquired veteran outfielder Jake Marisnick from the White Sox in exchange for cash. Manager AJ Hinch said after last night’s game that the plan had been to select Marisnick’s contract anyhow, but the injury to Greene makes Marisnick’s acquisition all the more important, as the slick-fielding and fleet-footed veteran can provide Detroit with an alternative in center field.

Greene’s injury comes just as the 22-year-old former top prospect looked to be breaking out and reaching his potential. Drafted with the fifth overall selection back in 2019, Greene entered the 2022 season ranked among the sport’s ten best prospects on most publications but delivered a fairly tepid .253/.321/.362 batting line in 93 games as a 21-year-old rookie. This season, he’s slashing .296/.362/.443 with five home runs, nine doubles, three triples and six steals (in six attempts).

The past month, in particular, has been a torrid one for Greene. He’s hitting .365/.435/.573 since the calendar flipped to May, and while he won’t sustain this month’s sky-high .485 average on balls in play, there are plenty of positives amid the hot streak. Greene fanned in 31.1% of his plate appearances in March/April but cut that to 25% in May. His walk rate jumped from 7.8% to 11.1% as he’s cut five percentage points off his chase rate on pitches off the plate.

After averaging a pedestrian 89.4 mph off the bat with an overall 38.6% hard-hit rate in the season’s first month, Greene erupted with a 94.1 mph average exit velocity and 55.1% hard-hit rate in May. Even assuming some regression of that BABIP, Greene has cut back on his chases, struck out less, walked more and radically improved the quality of his batted-ball profile during his recent hot streak.

All of that positive progress will grind to halt for the time being, however, as Greene will require an absence — likely of some note — while this injury mends. His placement on the injured list comes just one day after Detroit put top starter Eduardo Rodriguez and outfielder Matt Vierling on the injured list due to a pulley/tendon injury and a lower back injury, respectively. The injuries to Greene and Rodriguez, in particular, are major blows to the surprising Tigers, who have outplayed expectations and find themselves two games out of the AL Central lead and within arm’s reach (six games) of the final AL Wild Card spot.

Detroit’s outfield has been plagued by health issues all season. Greene will join Vierling, Kerry Carpenter (shoulder sprain) and Austin Meadows (anxiety) on the injured list. That likely leaves Marisnick, Akil Baddoo and utilityman Zach McKinstry as the primary outfield trio, with Tyler Nevin perhaps mixing in against some left-handed pitching in favor of the lefty-swinging McKinstry or Baddoo. The Tigers have some other outfield options on the 40-man roster — namely Parker Meadows (Austin’s younger brother). The 23-year-old has a .239/.327/.410 slash in Triple-A this year but has been rolling of late, batting .289/.353/.578 with three homers, a pair of doubles and a triple over the past two weeks.

For now, it seems Marisnick will be ticketed for a prominent role. He’s a career .228/.281/.384 hitter in 2166 plate appearances, which doesn’t inspire much optimism with regard to his potential offensive contributions, but the 32-year-old is also one of the sport’s premier outfield defenders. Dating back to his 2013 MLB debut, Marisnick ranks eight among 1044 big league outfielders with 76 Defensive Runs Saved — and all seven of the names ahead of him on the list have received greater playing time to accumulate those higher totals. His 48 Outs Above Average since Statcast debuted the statistic rank 12th among all outfielders.

Tigers To Select Jake Marisnick

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The Tigers are selecting newly-acquired outfielder Jake Marisnick onto the major league roster, manager A.J. Hinch informed reporters (including Evan Woodbery of MLive). Detroit will announce corresponding moves tomorrow. The 40-man roster is at capacity, so they’ll either have to designate someone for assignment or place someone on the 60-day injured list.

Detroit’s primary center fielder, Riley Greene, left tonight’s loss to the Rangers due to left leg discomfort. Hinch stressed that the decision to call-up Marisnick is independent of Greene’s situation — the team presumably planned to promote him from the moment they landed him from the White Sox this afternoon — but it could prove a fortuitously timed pickup if Greene requires an injured list stint.

Marisnick adds a glove-first veteran to the Detroit outfield mix. He’s appeared in parts of 11 big league campaigns, including a nine-game showing for the ChiSox earlier this season. Marisnick is a career .228/.281/.384 hitter. He’s thrice reached double digits in home runs but consistently posts worse than average strikeout and walk rates.

The biggest appeal is in his defensive acumen. Marisnick has drawn strong reviews from public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average for his center field work. His marks have predictably dipped from peak levels as he’s gotten into his 30s but he’ll still offer some stability with the glove off the bench.

Greene has started 49 of the 53 games in center field. The former fifth overall pick has been Detroit’s most productive position player, carrying a .296/.362/.443 line with five home runs. Matt Vierling landed on the injured list today, leaving Marisnick and Akil Baddoo as the top options for center field work if Greene requires some time off.

Tigers’ Uncertain Outfield Offers Chance For Young Players To Carve Out A Role

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The Tigers have had a fairly quiet offseason. First-year baseball operations leader Scott Harris has shied away from long-term additions on the heels of the team’s “Murphy’s law” 2022 campaign. The club took a couple upside dice rolls on Matt Boyd and Michael Lorenzen for the rotation, likely with an eye towards a possible deadline deal if they get off to strong starts. They’ve shipped out Gregory Soto and Joe Jiménez and could consider further subtractions from the bullpen.

Detroit hasn’t added any slam-dunk regulars on the position player side over the past few months. They brought in a couple upper level players in the Soto deal who could factor into the mix. No one acquired this offseason should be guaranteed an everyday job, and the lineup-wide underperformance last year means there’s plenty of uncertainty around the diamond. That’s particularly true in the outfield, where Detroit has a handful of options who could vie for a spot in A.J. Hinch’s lineup early in the year.

Lineup Locks

Greene’s a lock for the center field job if healthy. The former fifth overall pick has raked throughout his minor league career and entered 2022 as one of the top handful of prospects in the game. He looked to be trending towards an MLB job out of camp last year but a Spring Training foot fracture kept him on the injured list and required some ramp-up time at Triple-A Toledo.

The Tigers promoted the left-handed hitter in the middle of June. He was the club’s center fielder from then forward, starting 93 games. Greene hit .253/.321/.362 with five home runs through his first 418 MLB plate appearances. While it wasn’t the eye-popping debut enjoyed by some other rookies in the class, hitting at a roughly league level in the majors as a 21-year-old is no small feat. He hit a few too many grounders but posted above-average exit velocities and solid contact skills. It’s a strong offensive foundation and he’s arguably the most important player in the organization. Some prospect evaluators have suggested he might eventually be a better fit for left field than center, but there’s no real reason for Detroit to move him to a corner in what’s going to be an evaluative year anyhow.

Like Greene, Meadows will also be an everyday player if healthy. Unfortunately, he’s coming off an almost totally lost season. Acquired from the Rays during Spring Training, he only appeared in 36 games with Detroit during his first year as a Tiger. He battled vertigo-like symptoms early in the year, then lost time after contracting COVID-19. While attempting to ramp back up, he suffered strains in both Achilles tendons. Towards the end of the season, he and the club agreed to shut down his rehab so he could focus on his mental health.

Getting Meadows right both physically and mentally is obviously the top priority and a prerequisite to him rediscovering his past success. He’s shown the ability to be an impact left-handed power bat at his best, twice topping 25 home runs during his time in Tampa Bay. Meadows is limited to the corner outfield or designated hitter and should get extended run somewhere, assuming he’s ready to return to the diamond. With two remaining seasons of arbitration control, he could be a deadline trade candidate if he gets back on track.

Immediate MLB Mix

Baddoo looked like a great find for Detroit’s scouting staff in 2021. A Rule 5 draftee from the Minnesota system, he stuck on the roster and played in 124 games as a rookie. Despite making the jump directly from High-A, the left-handed hitter put up a solid .259/.330/.436 line with 13 homers and 18 stolen bases over his first 461 plate appearances in the big leagues. It’d have been a strong showing for any player but was particularly impressive for a Rule 5 selection.

The Tigers secured his long-term contractual rights and opened last season with Baddoo in center field. His second year against big league arms was a significant struggle. He stumbled to a .204/.289/.269 line across 225 trips to the plate, seeing his power production and hard contact rate decline. The Tigers optioned him to Toledo in early May. He responded to the demotion extremely well, hitting .300/.405/.500 in 30 games during his first real upper minors action. Detroit recalled him around the All-Star Break but he again hit at a below-average level down the stretch.

Baddoo is still just 24. He’s shown a patient plate approach at the MLB level and plays plus defense in the corner outfield (though he’s stretched in center field). His strong Triple-A performance means 2022 wasn’t a complete lost year, though he’ll need to make more of an offensive impact against MLB pitching to establish himself. He still has two minor league options remaining, so the Tigers can keep him in Detroit or Toledo depending on his performance.

A former 19th-round draftee, Carpenter wasn’t regarded by most evaluators as more than an organizational depth player heading into last season. He altered that perception with a breakout showing in the upper minors. Between Double-A Erie and Toledo, Carpenter connected on 30 home runs with a massive .313/.380/.645 line over 400 plate appearances. He earned his first MLB call in August and hit another six longballs with a .252/.310/.485 slash over 31 games.

The 25-year-old has put himself firmly in the mix for playing time. There’s still some skepticism about his viability as a long-term regular, though. He’s limited to the corners and regarded as a below-average defender there, raising the possibility he’s best suited for DH work. He has big power but an aggressive offensive approach that could limit his on-base marks. Baseball America named him the #8 prospect in the Detroit system last month, calling him a possible low-end regular or lefty platoon bat. While that would still be a great outcome for a 19th-round pick, Carpenter should get a chance to see if he can outperform that projection this year. He still has all three options remaining.

Acquired from the Phillies in the Soto deal, the 26-year-old Vierling steps right into the outfield equation. He’s appeared in 151 games with Philadelphia over the past two seasons, hitting .260/.309/.374 through 434 plate appearances. After accounting for the Phils’ hitter-friendly ballpark, that checked in 12 percentage points below league average, as measured by wRC+. He hasn’t hit for a ton of power and has walked at just a 6.2% clip, tamping down his on-base numbers.

While Vierling hasn’t established himself against big league pitching, he’s shown some interesting traits. He’s made hard contact at an excellent 48.2% clip while demonstrating strong bat-to-ball skills. A right-handed hitter, he’s posted solid numbers against lefties (.307/.343/.423) while struggling with same-handed pitchers (.227/.285/.339). Vierling bounced around the diamond in Philadelphia, playing all three outfield spots with occasional looks on the infield dirt.

Public defensive metrics haven’t liked his work in center field. He’s probably better suited for a corner while covering center field and second or third base in a pinch. It’s at least easy to see him carving out a multi-positional role against southpaws with the potential to take on more responsibility if he can translate his promising underlying offensive indicators into more consistent production. He has one remaining option season.

Multi-Positional Options

Also part of the Soto deal with Philadelphia, Maton’s a left-handed hitting utilityman. He’s mostly an infielder but could see some time in the corner outfield if the Tigers are looking for ways to get him in the lineup. He owns a .254/.330/.434 line in 87 career MLB games and posted a strong .261/.368/.436 showing in 250 Triple-A plate appearances last year.

It’s essentially the same story with Kreidler, whom BA ranked as Detroit’s #9 prospect. He has spent virtually his entire career as an infielder, playing mostly shortstop in the minor leagues. Kreidler’s professional outfield experience consists of two MLB innings of center field work last season, so it’s possible Detroit doesn’t consider him a real option for the outfield. It’s not uncommon to see multi-positional infielders eventually branch out into corner outfield work, though, as expanded defensive flexibility increases their utility off the bench. Kreidler’s a good enough athlete it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Tigers experiment with him in the outfield at some point. The more straightforward path to playing time for both Maton and Kreidler is at second/third base, though.

Haase has some left field experience in his MLB career. He’s primarily a bat-first catcher who has spent the bulk of his time behind the plate. As things stand, he looks like Detroit’s primary catcher. If a player like Donny Sands, Jake Rogers or non-roster invitee Andrew Knapp seizes the bulk of the catching time, Haase could factor into the corner outfield mix more frequently.

Late-Season Possibilities

Detroit also has a pair of notable outfield prospects who could factor into the mix in 2023. Former second-round pick Parker Meadows had a .275/.354/.466 line with 16 longballs and 17 stolen bases in 113 games for Erie last year. He walked at a strong 10.6% clip while cutting his strikeout rate to a career-low 18.4%. He just turned 23 and is already on the 40-man roster.

Justyn-Henry Malloy, 23 next month, came over from the Braves in the Jiménez trade. The right-handed hitter traversed three minor league levels in 2022, briefly reaching Triple-A after strong showings in both High-A and Double-A. Malloy walked at a massive 18.1% clip en route to a .268/.403/.421 line over 54 Double-A contests. He’s not yet on the 40-man.

Both Meadows and Malloy figure to start the upcoming season with Toledo. There’s no need for Detroit to push either player to the majors before the front office is convinced they’re ready. With another strong upper minors performance, either could put themselves on the map for a midseason promotion. In the interim, the Tigers figure to get looks at players like Baddoo, Carpenter and Vierling to sort out where that group fits in the long-term picture.

Big Hype Prospects: Meyer, Pratto, Ruiz, Greene, Cowser

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This week in Big Hype Prospects, we’ll check in with a few recent and upcoming promotees along with a smattering of others.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Max Meyer, 23, SP, Marlins
AAA: 58 IP, 10.09 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, 3.72 ERA

Meyer is poised for his first taste of the Majors on Saturday, just ahead of the All-Star Break. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored at the time his promotion was announced, the northpaw has made short work of minor league opponents at all stops. His ascent has not been without caveat. Some commentators worry about his ability to hold down a rotation role in the Majors for three reasons. The first is easiest to dismiss as unnecessary fretting. At 6’0’’, Meyer is slightly undersized which can presage an inability to tolerate 180-inning workloads. That said, there are plenty of “short” pitchers in baseball history, most notably Pedro Martinez.

The second and third issues are a bit more worrisome. They tie together, too. Meyer’s fastball command isn’t as sharp as his walk rates suggest. He’s gotten away with using it in the zone in the minors, but he could run into some trouble in the Majors. He relies almost exclusively on his fastball and an elite slider, a combination which often portends a future in the bullpen. That said, lower caliber pitchers like Brad Keller and Brady Singer have managed mid-rotation quality results with the same repertoire. We’ve also seen a few others like Spencer Strider thrive this season while using a different two-pitch repertoire.

Nick Pratto, 23, 1B, Royals
AAA: 337 PA, 17 HR, 8 SB, .240/.373/.484

Like many of his power-hitting Major League colleagues, Pratto got off to a slow start this season before eventually finding his stride. The Royals have promoted him for a series in Toronto in which they’ve infamously left 10 players south of the Canadian border. As such, his debut might be short-lived.

Pratto is a classic patient, left-handed slugger in the mold of Kyle Schwarber. Like the upcoming Home Run Derby participant, Pratto runs a mid-teens walk rate while striking out in around 30 percent of plate appearances. He makes up for so little contact by punishing those with which he does connect. Nearly half of his batted balls are flies and over 20 percent of those leave the yard. Per a home run calculator I’ve developed, Pratto projects for 33 home runs per 600 plate appearances. While he’s shown a willingness to run, he has below average speed. Like Schwarber, Pratto will probably be a volatile performer whose carrying trait is slugging.

Esteury Ruiz, 23, OF, Padres
AA: 232 PA, 9 HR, 37 SB, .344/.474/.611
AAA: 142 PA, 4 HR, 23 SB, .315/.457/.477

Ruiz draws his hype from our friends in the fantasy baseball realm where his combination of power and speed could make him one of the most celebrated players in the game. From a real-world perspective, there are a lot of things that could go wrong. Starting on defense, he only has about a year of experience as an outfielder. His routes can be inconsistent or even circuitous. Fortunately, he has enough speed to recover while he learns the position. Speed doesn’t guarantee eventual mastery as an outfield defender. Roman Quinn is similarly fleet and still takes baffling routes to the ball at times.

Scouts also worry about his hit tool. Prior to this season, Ruiz had consistently below-average plate discipline. He struggled with swinging strikes, strikeouts, and consistency of contact. Notably, he’s produced 13.9 percent walk and 17.4 percent strikeout rates this season across two levels. His swinging-strike rate has also improved. Perhaps a more selective approach has yielded better contact results (I’m still awaiting comment from my sources). Regardless, speed is his carrying trait. Nabbing 60 bases (69 attempts) in 374 plate appearances is seriously impressive work.
I’m reminded of Michael A. Taylor, an outfielder who, at his peak, occasionally hit for power, often stole bases, but never quite made enough contact to stick as a regular. He’s carved out a nice career based on gold glove caliber center field defense. As noted above, Ruiz will need to improve considerably to match Taylor on defense. The raw tools are there.

Riley Greene, 21, OF, Tigers
MLB: 109 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, .255/.358/.340

Greene’s prospect eligibility will soon expire. His first taste of the Majors has yielded mixed results. On the one hand, he’s effectively working counts. His 21.1 percent strikeout and 7.9 percent swinging-strike rates exceed even the wildest hopes for his early-career performance. The swinging-strike rate, in particular, is a marked divergence from expectations.

On the other hand, Greene is supposed to be a power hitter. With just one home run, three doubles, and a triple to his name, he’s been one of the most punchless batters since his debut in mid-June. Only 19 players have a lower ISO over that span – mostly names like Geraldo Perdomo, Myles Straw, and Steven Kwan.

Better times likely await ahead. Greene is making consistent hard and barreled contact. It’s also encouraging to see him make adjustments. He’ll need to continue to do so to correct for the biggest flaw in his profile – an over-50 percent ground ball rate. While he’s currently using a shift-proof all-fields approach, he’s the kind of hitter who could benefit from a more pull-centric profile.

Colton Cowser, 22, OF, Orioles
High-A: 278 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .258/.385/.410
AA: 53 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .308/.491/.615

In a crowded Orioles system, a lot of attention is paid to Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, and DL Hall. However, Cowser is also a Top 50-caliber prospect who is quickly working his way towards a big league debut in early 2023. With a patient approach, good rate of contact, and a swing geared for high BABIPs, Cowser profiles as a top-of-the-lineup force. He produces premium line-drive rates while using an all-fields approach. A left-handed hitter, he won’t be as penalized by the new dimensions at Camden Yards as his right-handed hitting teammates. Yet, since he hits to all fields, he’ll still use the spacious left field pasture to splash doubles.

If Cowser has a shortcoming, it’s that he doesn’t consistently get to in-game power. As mentioned, his swing skews to low-angle contact. He produces plenty of well-hit balls, but his game is mostly geared around reaching base. In today’s MLB, you never know when a player will make an adjustment that unlocks another gear, but it’s not strictly necessary in Cowser’s case. The Orioles have plenty of mid-lineup bats penciled into their future lineups. However, they could use a leadoff hitter who works counts and jumps on mistakes in the zone.

Five More

Michael Massey, Royals (24 years old): Another temporary beneficiary of the Royals’ roster triage, Massey isn’t technically a hyped prospect. However, my best scouting resource has been talking him up for a full year as a future regular. While it isn’t the most exciting profile, he skews to line drive and “fliner” contact which helps him to run high BABIPs while also regularly hitting for extra bases. The elevated BABIP will be necessary if he’s to be an above average hitter – his plate discipline and contact skills are slightly below average. Defensively, he profiles as a utilityman who fits best at second base.

Eury Perez, Marlins (19): With Shane Baz returning to the injured list due to an ominous elbow sprain, Perez is the last truly elite pitching prospect (Baz, Daniel Espino, and Grayson Rodriguez) left standing. The Marlins are carefully managing his workload – both by holding him to around 20 batters faced per appearance while using him every seven or eight days. He’s carved through Double-A competition and could probably more than hold his own in the Majors. He’s only 19 years and three months old, so Miami is taking the long view with his development.

Jordan Walker, Cardinals (20): Walker has yet to appear in this column for two simple reasons. His performance hasn’t merited effusive praise or words of caution. As one of the youngest players in Double-A, he’s batting .302/.392/.476 with seven home runs and 15 steals while demonstrating good strike zone judgment and a batted ball approach based around liners and ground balls. His light-tower power is handicapped by hitting too many grounders. It’s not a death blow to his presumed future as a top slugger. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are among the notable power hitters who skew to low-angle contact.

Mick Abel, Phillies (20): With the usual caveats about injury, Abel will be one of the most-hyped pitching prospects this time next year. He’s performed well though not exceptionally at High-A this season, producing a 4.23 ERA with 10.50 K/9 and 3.95 BB/9. Recently, he’s struggled with both home runs and walks. The Phillies have allowed him to pitch surprisingly deep into his starts. He often faces 24 or more batters, which is more than the average big leaguer. This workload has been mitigated with extra rest between starts.

Brayan Rocchio, Guardians (21): Since a four-hit, two-homer game at the end of June, Rocchio is batting .452/.500/.833 over his last 46 plate appearances. In his second stint at Double-A, he’s noticeably improved upon his walk and strikeout rates. He’s beginning to track as a shortstop whose defensive and offensive prowess will remind Guardians fans of Francisco Lindor. Including last season, he now has 506 plate appearances at Double-A. A promotion to Triple-A is almost certainly imminent.

Tigers To Promote Riley Greene

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The Tigers are promoting top prospect Riley Greene, according to various reporters (including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News). Outfielder Austin Meadows is going on the COVID-19 injured list in a corresponding move.

Had it not been for a fractured right foot suffered in the last few days of Spring Training, Greene was on track to make his Major League debut back on Opening Day.  Instead, the 21-year-old has to work through injury rehab and then 17 minor league games (15 at Triple-A, two in A-ball on a rehab assignment) before officially being deemed ready for his first taste of the Show.

Detroit selected Greene with the fifth overall pick of the 2019 draft, and he has since been a fixture on top-prospect rankings, including a consensus top-six placement heading into the 2022 campaign.  The Athletic’s Keith Law considered Greene as the third-best prospect in baseball, with Baseball America (4th), MLB Pipeline (5th), and Baseball Prospectus (6th) not far behind.

Greene only had an okay start to his pro career in 2019 at age 18, and then naturally didn’t play at all in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season.  Returning to the field last year, Greene hit .301/.387/.534 with 24 home runs and 16 steals over 558 plate appearances at the Double-A (373 PA) and Triple-A (185) levels.

There is plenty of five-tool potential for Greene, who was already regarded as having “elite bat speed” (as per Baseball America’s scouting report) even before he started to display more power at the plate in 2021.  According to BA, Greene’s “physical gifts and advanced feel at the plate make him a potential plus-plus hitter who contends for batting titles and he has a chance to grow into 20-plus home run power.”  Greene adds to that offensive potential by being a stolen-base threat thanks to his plus speed, and that same speed has also helped him become a solid defensive center fielder.  He could ultimately be best suited to a corner outfield position, and Greene also has a strong throwing arm that would help him in right field.

As if there wasn’t enough pressure on a 21-year-old making his MLB debut, Greene also finds himself cast as perhaps a turning point (or savior) of what has been a disastrous season for the Tigers.  After years of rebuilding, the Tigers looked to be turning the corner with young talent on the way up, and they augmented that core of prospects with veteran additions like Javier Baez, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Meadows during the offseason.

Instead, Detroit has only a 24-39 record, as the club has been hampered injuries to almost every member of the rotation and a near-total lack of hitting.  Tarik Skubal, Beau Brieske, and Alex Faedo have helped keep the rotation afloat, but the Tigers are batting a collective .220/.275/.315.  Harold Castro’s modest 114 wRC+ leads all Detroit batters who have received regular or semi-regular playing time.

Against this backdrop, it is probably already too late for Greene to spark any sort of miracle turn-around.  Instead, the outfielder will try to hit the ground running and make a good showing for himself in his rookie season, in order to give the Tigers something to look forward to as they reshuffle the deck for 2023.  While Spencer Torkelson has struggled in his first MLB campaign, the Tigers’ long-term plan is to have Greene and Torkelson as lineup mainstays for years to come.

Meadows has hit .250/.347/.328 over 147 PA this season, and is still looking for his first homer of 2022 after mashing 27 balls out of the park with the Rays last year.  Meadows also spent close to four weeks battling vertigo-related symptoms, and was only activated off the regular injured list on June 7.

Tigers Notes: Meadows, Greene, Mize, Coaching Staff

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5:53pm: Detroit announced that Mize has been transferred from the 10-day to the 60-day injured list. It’s a procedural move designed to free 40-man roster space for reliever Will Vest, who has returned from the COVID-19 IL.

The move isn’t indicative of a change in Mize’s timetable. He’s now out for 60 days from his initial placement on April 15, not two months from today. That means he’ll be eligible to return on June 14. After an absence of this length, Mize will surely need a couple rehab starts before returning to the big league rotation. Even though he’s seemingly making progress, he wasn’t going to be back on the mound at Comerica Park within the next two weeks.

12:16 pm: The Tigers’ outfield has been lambasted by injuries so far in 2022, with each of Austin Meadows, Robbie Grossman, Victor Reyes and top prospect Riley Greene landing on the injured list. There’s some welcome news on the health front for Detroit fans, however, as manager AJ Hinch revealed today that Meadows has been cleared to begin a minor league rehab assignment (Twitter link via Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic). Meanwhile, Greene made his Triple-A debut last night after appearing in a couple of Low-A games as he continues to build toward a possible MLB debut.

Meadows has been out since May 16 due to vertigo-like symptoms that sidelined him for several games in the middle of the month. He attempted to return on May 15, only to exit the game early with continued symptoms, leading to his current IL stint.

Prior to landing on the injured list, Meadows had been productive from an on-base standpoint but had yet to show off his above-average power. The former Rays slugger was batting .267/.362/.347 through 116 plate appearances to begin the year. Meadows’ 10.3% walk rate to date would be the second-best mark of his career over a full season, and his 12.1% strikeout rate was far and away the lowest clip of his career. However, he’s yet to hit his first Tigers homer and was sitting on a tiny .079 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) — a far cry from the .229 clip he carried into the season. It may not be elite production, but it’s considerably healthier than what the Tigers have received from Derek Hill (.250/.288/.324), Daz Cameron (.156/.250/.156) and Willi Castro (.287/.333/.356) of late with so many outfield alternatives banged up.

As for Greene, it’s not clear just how long he’ll need before he’s deemed ready for his first big league look, but the 2019 No. 5 overall pick and consensus top-10 overall MLB prospect was seen as a favorite to break camp with the Tigers this spring. That changed when a fractured foot landed him in a walking boot — an injury that came with an expected recovery period of six to eight weeks. Greene indeed returned to game action in about eight weeks’ time, though he’ll now spend some time rehabbing in the minors to shake off some rust. The 21-year-old hit .301/.387/.534 between Double-A and Triple-A last season, however, and it could be a relatively short stay in Toledo if he can quickly round into that form.

Just as the organization is hopeful that Greene will eventually be a building block in the outfield, they’re hopeful that ailing righty Casey Mize will be a fixture in the rotation. Mize has been out since mid-April due to a sprained medial ligament in his elbow (not the same ligament that typically required Tommy John surgery), but he’s set to ramp up the intensity in his throwing program in the coming days, tweets MLB.com’s Jason Beck. The 2018 No. 1 overall pick played catch yesterday and reported no issues, and he’ll move to a long-toss program sometime next week.\n
Mize pitched in just two games this season, totaling 10 innings before landing on the shelf. The hope was that after a solid run in 2021 — 150 1/3 innings, 3.71 ERA, 19.3% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate — he could join fellow top prospects Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning and offseason signee Eduardo Rodriguez to fill out the bulk of the Tigers’ rotation. Of that group, however, only Skubal has avoided the injured list so far in 2022. Manning (shoulder) and Rodriguez (ribcage) are both on the injured list, as are lefty Tyler Alexander (elbow strain) and righty Michael Pineda (fractured finger). Mize all but ditched his sinker in favor of more four-seamers prior to his injury but was shelved too early to glean much meaningful data from that experiment in pitch selection.

The Tigers’ injury bug has even spread to the team’s coaching staff, it seems, as MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery writes that first base coach Gary Jones won’t be on the field for at least four to six weeks. A line drive hit by Jeimer Candelario struck Jones on the leg this week and resulted in a fractured ankle. The injury will relegate Jones to some off-the-field work (e.g. outfield positioning, in-game strategizing with Hinch). Assistant hitting coach Mike Hessman will step into the coach’s box and assume that portion off Jones’ duties for the time being.

Matt Manning Shut Down From Rehab Assignment With Biceps Tendinitis

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The Tigers have pulled back Matt Manning from his minor league rehab stint after he was diagnosed with biceps tendinitis, manager A.J. Hinch told reporters last night (via Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic and Jason Beck of MLB.com). Hinch didn’t provide a specific timetable for when the right-hander may again get back to the mound, but he noted it wouldn’t be for the “foreseeable future.”

Manning first landed on the injured list in mid-April due to shoulder inflammation. He went to Triple-A Toledo on May 8 to begin a rehab stint, seemingly positioning him to return by the end of the month. Manning was pulled early from a start with the Mud Hens last Thursday, but general manager Al Avila suggested afterwards that was unrelated to any arm soreness and instead because the 24-year-old felt light-headed.

The Tigers sent Manning back out with Toledo on Tuesday, suggesting they weren’t concerned about whatever caused his early departure last week. He made it through just 1 2/3 innings and issued a pair of walks — bringing his total to seven free passes in his last 7 2/3 Triple-A frames — before informing the team of his arm discomfort. After revealing the biceps issue, Manning now looks in line for a lengthy absence.

It’s the latest in a series of blows to the Detroit rotation, which has been decimated by injury. Of Detroit’s season-opening starting five, four — Manning, Casey Mize, Eduardo Rodríguez and Tyler Alexander — are on the IL. So is veteran Michael Pineda, who was expected to take Alexander’s spot at the back end after a few build-up outings in Toledo. Detroit entered the year knowing they’d be without Spencer Turnbull, who underwent Tommy John surgery last July and won’t be an option until the tail end of the season at the earliest.

That the Tigers still rank middle-of-the-pack with a 4.19 rotation ERA is fairly impressive — largely attributable to a breakout season from their lone healthy top starter, Tarik Skubal. Beyond Skubal, Detroit has been left turning things over to Alex Faedo, Beau Brieske and Elvin Rodríguez, while they’re in the process of stretching out Rony García from relief. That’s obviously not ideal, and when paired with an offense that has been largely ineffective, has led to a disappointing 16-28 start.

Manning, Mize and Skubal were each top prospects before they reached the big leagues, with the Tigers envisioning that trio anchoring their next contender. Mize had the best 2021 numbers of the group, while Skubal has emerged as one of the top arms in the American League this season. Manning has yet to have much success at the big league level. The 24-year-old posted a 5.80 ERA across 85 1/3 innings last year, and he’s been limited to two starts this season.

Hinch did offer a moderately encouraging update on Mize, who has also been down since mid-April with an elbow sprain. He’s hoping to begin a throwing program by next week (Stavenhagen link). Given that he hasn’t pitched in six weeks, the righty will certainly need some time to build up arm strength before heading out on a rehab stint of his own.

The timeline is clearer for top outfield prospect Riley Greene, whom Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press reports is set to begin a rehab assignment tonight with Low-A Lakeland. Viewed as a candidate to break camp with the club as the Opening Day center fielder, Greene instead suffered a foot fracture late in Spring Training. That has kept the former #5 overall pick on the injured list all season, but it seems he’s nearing a return. Greene has yet to make his big league debut, but Detroit’s sputtering lineup should afford him an opportunity fairly quickly after he works back into game shape.

AL Notes: Bubic, Greene, Brnovich

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The Royals announced yesterday that they optioned left-hander Kris Bubic to Triple-A Omaha, with righty Jonathan Heasley taking his spot on the active roster.

Over the past couple of years, Bubic seemed to be establishing himself as a solid, if unspectacular, part of the club’s rotation. Over 2020 and 2021, he made 30 starts and nine appearances out of the bullpen, throwing 180 innings with a 4.40 ERA. His 21% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate and 46.8% ground ball rate were all within a few points of league average. However, just about everything has gone in the wrong direction this year, as his ERA is currently at 12.83, with his strikeout rate dropping to 14.7%, his walk rate jumping to 16.2% and his grounder rate sinking to 38.3%. He’ll now head to Omaha and try to get the train back on the tracks. Despite having over two years of MLB service time now, he’s still just 24 years old and has plenty of time to recover.

The team is off to a disappointing 10-19 start. Although Bubic and Carlos Hernandez have struggled in the rotation, the club’s biggest weakness so far has been the bats. The team-wide slash line of .216/.282/.308 amounts to a wRC+ of 76, dead last in the majors.

Some other notes from the American League…

  • During Spring Training, it seemed like the Tigers were poised to have their top two prospects crack the Opening Day roster. In the end, first baseman Spencer Torkelson followed through, but outfielder Riley Greene couldn’t make it after fracturing his foot just a few days before the opener. It seems he could be nearing a return to the field, with Jason Beck of MLB.com relaying word from manager A.J. Hinch that Greene is about to resume baseball activities. The club is out to a miserable 9-23 start, a worse record than every team except for the Cincinnati Reds. The primary culprit has been the offense, with Austin Meadows the only Tiger having a wRC+ higher than 101 in more than 50 plate appearances. There’s no guarantee a young player will hit the ground running in his first taste of MLB action, as evidenced by Torkelson’s .146/.276/.258 line, but it’s possible that Greene could provide a boost based on his .308/.400/.553 line in Triple-A last year. Since the demotion of Akil Baddoo, the outfield mix consists of Meadows, Willi Castro, Derek Hill and Robbie Grossman. With Grossman approaching free agency at season’s end, he’s a likely trade candidate, unless the Tigers can vault themselves back into contention over the next few months.
  • The Orioles announced that pitching prospect Kyle Brnovich underwent Tommy John surgery this week, as relayed by Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Brnovich was drafted by the Angels and traded to the Orioles as part of the Dylan Bundy deal before pitching for his original organization. Last year, he logged 95 innings across High-A and Double-A with a 3.32 ERA, 31.5% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. Based on that strong season, he’s now considered the #30 prospect in the organization by Baseball America and #17 by FanGraphs. He started the year in Triple-A but was only able to throw eight innings before being shut down. He’ll now miss the remainder of this season, but could be pushing for a rotation spot in the second half of next year, given the usual 12-18 month recovery time from the procedure. Even with this setback, the club’s future rotation picture is starting to look better. Bruce Zimmermann, Tyler Wells and Kyle Bradish are showing signs of promise in the early going, to varying degrees, with prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall pitching well in Triple-A and surely nearing their MLB debuts.
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