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Rowdy Tellez

MLBTR Podcast: Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Why is the MLB offseason so slow to get going? The other leagues, most of your top free agents are off the board within a few days. It’s been three weeks since players filed for free agency and nothing. (19:55)
  • Do you think the Dodgers do something major this year or will it be another disappointing offseason for the fans? (23:30)
  • Do you think the Pirates sign Rhys Hoskins or settle for someone cheaper? (26:20)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
  • Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here
  • Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here

Brewers To Non-Tender Rowdy Tellez

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The Brewers are planning to non-tender first baseman Rowdy Tellez, reports Robert Murray of Fansided. Tellez was projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz for a $5.9MM salary in his final trip through arbitration this offseason.

The 28-year-old Tellez smacked a career-high 35 home runs for the 2022 Brewers but was unable to replicate that production at the plate in 2023. This past season saw the slugger turn in a career-worst .215/.291/.376 batting line with just 13 home runs — a stark decline from the prior year’s offensive output.

Perhaps the Brewers might’ve been willing to give him another chance or find a trade partner if Tellez were a standout defender, but the 6’4″, 270-pound slugger is limited to first base and designated hitter only and draws below-average marks for his glovework. Tellez also generally requires a platoon partner; he hit just .174/.269/.261 against left-handers this year and owns a tepid .236/.308/.386 batting line in 438 career plate appearances versus same-handed opponents.

As his 2022 campaign showed, Tellez has the capability to be a source of booming power in the middle of a lineup, but his margin for error is rather slight, given the lack of defensive versatility and on-base issues. Now that he’s a free agent, a club with openings at first base and/or designated hitter and in the market for some low-cost power upside figures to take a look.

Justin Wilson Won’t Pitch Again In 2023

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When the Brewers placed Justin Wilson on the 15-day injured list on July 29, it was expected that the southpaw was in for another lengthy absence.  Manager Craig Counsell described Wilson’s left lat strain as “pretty significant” at the time, and Counsell updated reporters (including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) on Friday that Wilson will indeed miss the rest of the 2023 season.

Wilson’s year will end without a single MLB appearance, as his time on the Brewers’ active roster was short-lived.  Milwaukee only activated Wilson from the 60-day IL on July 28, as the left-hander was returning from Tommy John surgery rehab.  Unfortunately, Wilson was warming up in the bullpen for his first appearance of the season when he suffered his lat strain, thus ending his Brewers debut before it officially happened.  Between this injury and the TJ surgery, Wilson has only pitched in five games (for 3 2/3 innings) since the start of the 2022 season.

The Brew Crew signed Wilson to a one-year free agent deal last offseason worth $1MM in guaranteed money — $850K in salary for 2023, and a $150K buyout of a $2.5MM club option for 2024.  The contract was designed to give Milwaukee some flexibility if Wilson ended up missing most or all of the season due to Tommy John rehab, so in theory, the lat strain shouldn’t much change the original equation for the team.  On the other hand, $2.5MM is a decent amount of money for a medium-payroll team to spend on a veteran (Wilson turns 36 this month) reliever who hasn’t pitched in almost two full seasons.  This isn’t a decision the Brewers will have to make until after the World Series is over, so there’s plenty of time for the club to monitor Wilson’s recovery from the lat injury.

In better injury news for the Brewers, Counsell said that Rowdy Tellez is slated to begin a Triple-A rehab assignment on Tuesday.  Tellez hasn’t played since July 4, as a 10-day IL stint that started due to forearm inflammation was then extended when Tellez broke the fingertip on his left ring finger in a fluke accident while shagging fly balls before a game.

Central Notes: Perez, Tellez, Jimenez, Kelly, O’Neill, Knizner

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Salvador Perez suffered a left hamstring strain while scoring a run in today’s 8-4 Royals victory over the Rays.  Perez scored from first base on a MJ Melendez double, but the extra effort was costly for the veteran catcher, and a trip to the injured list now seems likely.  The time lost will depend on the grade of Perez’s strain, and manager Matt Quartraro told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters that the club will have more information on Monday.

An injury to Perez just adds to a nightmare of a season for the Royals, as they are a measly 27-67 after today’s win.  Perez is hitting .258/.299/.444 with 15 home runs over 345 plate apperances, translating to below-average (97 wRC+) overall offense for the 33-year-old backstop.  It represents a dropoff from Perez’s usual production, yet he remains one of the best bats on a Royals team that has almost entirely underachieved.  Melendez and Freddy Fermin seem likely to take over catching duties in the event of Perez hitting the IL, and if you’re wondering if the injury might impact Perez’s trade value, Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo already stated last month that Perez isn’t going anywhere.

More from the two Central divisions…

  • The Brewers were expecting Rowdy Tellez back from the 10-day IL this coming Tuesday, but the first baseman suffered another injury while shagging fly balls prior to today’s game.  As manager Craig Counsell told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak and other reporters, Tellez was trying to make a catch when he caught his left ring finger between the seams of the outfield wall padding.  The result was a broken fingertip, a torn nail, and an estimated 3-4 more weeks on the injured list.  Tellez had been sidelined with forearm inflammation, and he was looking to rebound from a nasty slump that had dropped his numbers to .213/.285/.388 over 288 PA.  First base/DH was already expected to be a target area for the Brewers heading into the trade deadline, and Tellez’s extended absence now only increases the club’s need for some extra corner power.
  • Eloy Jimenez will be out of the White Sox lineup for at least “the next few days” due to a groin injury, manager Pedro Grifol told MLB.com and other media.  Jimenez had to make an early exit from today’s game due to the injury, and testing will determine the severity or if Jimenez might be headed for the 10-day IL.  The slugger already missed around three weeks earlier this season while recovering from an appendectomy, and a variety of injuries have limited Jimenez’s playing time over his five Major League seasons.  Over 259 PA for Chicago this season, Jimenez has 12 home runs and a .269/.313/.463 slash line.
  • In better injury news for the White Sox, Joe Kelly threw a bullpen session today and plans to return from the 15-day IL during the Sox/Mets series that begins on Tuesday, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets.  Kelly was placed on the IL due to elbow inflammation on July 5, so he’ll return after a minimal stint.  Secondary metrics indicate that Kelly is drastically outperforming his uninspiring 4.82 ERA, so some better bottom-line numbers over the next couple of weeks might turn Kelly into a trade chip for the White Sox at the deadline.
  • The Cardinals activated catcher Andrew Knizner off the 10-day IL today, and manager Oli Marmol told reporters (including Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that the club will continue to carry three catchers on the roster since it wants to see more of youngster Ivan Herrera.  It remains to be seen how the Cardinals will split the playing time between Willson Contreras, Knizner, and Herrera, but Knizner was the only member of the trio to see action in the Cards’ 8-4 win over the Nationals today.  In other St. Louis injury news, Tyler O’Neill might return from the IL on Tuesday if he emerges in good form after a Triple-A rehab game today.

Brewers Designate Mike Brosseau For Assignment, Select J.C. Mejía

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The Brewers announced a series of roster moves today, reinstating infielder/outfielder Brian Anderson from the paternity list, recalling right-hander Tyson Miller and selecting the contract of righty J.C. Mejía. In corresponding moves, they optioned relievers Clayton Andrews and J.B. Bukauskas in addition to placing first baseman Rowdy Tellez on the 10-day injured list due to right forearm inflammation. To get Mejia onto the 40-man, infielder Mike Brosseau was designated for assignment. Additionally, left-hander Thomas Pannone, who was designated for assignment on the weekend, was released.

Brosseau, 29, has alternated hot and cold in his career, serving as a utility player for the Rays and Brewers. He hit .284/.343/.500 for the Rays over 2019 and 2020 but then slumped to a line of .187/.266/.347 in 2021. He was then traded to the Brewers and bounced back with a .255/.344/.418 showing last year for a 118 wRC+.

He and the club avoided arbitration in the offseason by agreeing to a $1.4MM salary for this year. He had shown an ability to provide above-average offense while playing every infield position, the outfield corners and even some mop-up duty on the mound, making that a relative bargain price. Unfortunately, he’s having another down season at the plate here in 2023. He hit .205/.256/.397 for a wRC+ of 74 and got optioned to the minors about a month ago. He’s been even worse in Triple-A since then, hitting .188/.232/.375 in 69 plate appearances.

The Brewers will now have a week to trade Brosseau or pass him through waivers. He’s obviously having a rough year but has plenty of past success that could interest other clubs. He also has a couple of option years, including this one, meaning he wouldn’t even require an active roster spot. That could hold some appeal for a club looking for a bit of extra versatile depth.

Mejía, now 26, was acquired from Cleveland prior to the 2022 season but received an 80-game suspension for a positive PED test in May of that year. He was outrighted off the 40-man in August. This year, he’s been in Triple-A, tossing 30 1/3 innings over 23 appearances. He has a 3.86 ERA in that time, striking out 25.2% of opponents against a 10.2% walk rate. He’s also kept the ball on the ground at an incredible 64.5% clip.

The Brewers have used their bullpen quite a bit in recent days, including last night’s contest which went to 11 innings and saw the club use six different pitchers. They’ve brought up Mejía and Miller to provide the bullpen with some fresh arms, with five games left before the All-Star break.

Pannone has previously been outrighted in his career and therefore would have had the right to reject another such assignment. The club has skipped that formality and just sent him back to the open market to look for his next opportunity. He made one appearance for the Brewers in his brief time on the roster, tossing 2 2/3 innings with two earned runs allowed. In 53 1/3 Triple-A innings this year, he posted a 2.70 ERA.

Brewers Should Look To Add At First Base This Summer

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The Brewers knocked off the Mets yesterday, pushing four games above .500. With the Reds losing later in Baltimore, Milwaukee nudged back into first place in the NL Central.

No one will be overwhelmed with the Brew Crew’s first couple months. They’ve been outscored by 20 runs on the year and carry a 23-27 record since the start of May. Yet the Cardinals’ disastrous start leaves the door wide open for Milwaukee to take the division, even with Cincinnati outpacing most expectations and the Cubs playing their way back into the mix.

In his first summer leading baseball operations, GM Matt Arnold figures to look for ways to improve the offense. Milwaukee has been a pitching and defense team for years, but the lineup has become particularly problematic in 2023. The Brewers rank 25th in runs despite the generally hitter-friendly nature of American Family Field. Only the A’s have a lower batting average than Milwaukee’s .226 clip, while the Brewers rank 25th in on-base percentage (.303), 28th in slugging (.373) and have the game’s third-highest strikeout rate (25.7%).

Any time a team is struggling to that extent, there’ll be multiple areas of concern. For Milwaukee, none stands out more than first base. The Brewers have gotten just a .223/.294/.378 showing out of the bat-first position. By measure of wRC+, that’s 25th in MLB. The struggles have mounted over the last two months, coinciding with the team’s slide from an 18-10 start. Since May 1, Milwaukee first basemen are hitting .217/.286/.349. Only the Angels have gotten less in that span.

That’s in large part due to an extended slump from Rowdy Tellez. The left-handed hitter had an excellent April (.247/.333/.533) but has hit only .203/.269/.327 in 167 plate appearances over the past two months. His walks and contact quality have both fallen off precipitously. Tellez drew a free pass in over 12% of his trips to the dish in the first month; that’s down to a pedestrian 8.4% clip since.

The drop in batted ball results is even more concerning. Tellez’s calling card has always been big power potential. He popped 35 home runs a season ago and routinely posted excellent batted ball metrics. That hasn’t been the case in 2023. Tellez’s rate of hard contact (batted balls hit 95+ MPH) has fallen from the 45-48% range between 2020-22 to a roughly average 38.4% clip. The softer contact is borne out in the results. He’s on a 25-homer pace with an overall .218/.293/.408 batting line.

Unless Tellez breaks out of this slump in the next few weeks, Arnold and his front office could prioritize a first base upgrade at the deadline. Early-season dice rolls on Luke Voit and Jon Singleton didn’t pan out; neither is still in the organization. Darin Ruf broke a bone in his knee almost immediately after signing and is out into August. Owen Miller is better served as a multi-positional infielder than an everyday first baseman. Keston Hiura is raking in Triple-A again, but he’s struggled to put the ball in play whenever he’s gone up against big league arms.

It’s still too early to know exactly which first basemen could be attainable. Five teams (the A’s, Rockies, Nationals, Cardinals and Royals) are double-digit games out of a playoff spot. Oakland might be open to selling high on Rule 5 find Ryan Noda, but that’s by no means a guarantee. Washington hasn’t gotten much from Joey Meneses or Dominic Smith this year. Colorado could deal C.J. Cron, but he only returned from a nagging back issue yesterday and didn’t hit well before the injury.

Kansas City lost Vinnie Pasquantino to season-ending shoulder surgery and probably wouldn’t have traded him anyhow. It’s still tough to imagine the Cardinals moving Paul Goldschmidt and dealing such a major hit to their 2024 chances; even if they did put the defending NL MVP on the market, they almost certainly wouldn’t want to move him to one of their top divisional competitors.

The Brewers may have to wait a few more weeks to hope for other teams to fall out of contention. Justin Turner is having a strong season and can opt out of his deal with the Red Sox at year’s end. Boston is only three games out of a playoff spot right now; if they dropped five or six back by the deadline, they could listen to offers. Maybe the Orioles would sell low on Ryan Mountcastle, although he’s having an even poorer season than Tellez to date. Pittsburgh’s Connor Joe is a right-handed hitter with a good track record against lefty arms. He’s miscast as a regular but could be a fallback platoon partner with Tellez if Milwaukee can’t swing a bigger upgrade.

Regardless of what the Brewers do this summer, Tellez’s recent struggles put his longer-term future with the organization in doubt. He’s playing this season on a $4.95MM salary and would be in line for a raise in his final season of arbitration. His current trajectory points towards a non-tender. That’d be true on virtually every team and is particularly the case for a Milwaukee organization that has tended not to value the slugging first baseman highly (i.e. non-tendering Chris Carter in 2016 and declining a net $6.5MM option on Eric Thames three years later).

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Trade Candidate: Rowdy Tellez

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When the Blue Jays traded Rowdy Tellez to the Brewers in June 2021, the move was mostly seen as a depth addition to stabilize first base after slugger Daniel Vogelbach went down with a hamstring injury. Now, over a year since that trade was completed, Tellez has blossomed into a righty-masher, posting a .222/.303/.498 (117 wRC+) slash line against right-handed pitchers in 2022, with a collective .219/.307/.462 line and 35 homers against all competition.

On the heels of such a productive season, Tellez will garner some trade interest. Predicted to earn only $5.3MM in his second trip through the arbitration process, Tellez projects as an affordable option in a thin first base market (recently analyzed by MLBTR’s Anthony Franco). Besides José Abreu, Josh Bell, potentially Anthony Rizzo if he executes his opt-out, and a few veterans coming off down years, there are few first basemen available that provide power similar to Tellez.

As for the Brewers, while they do not currently have any top prospects at first base, ranked by MLB.com, former Brewers’ top prospect Keston Hiura does not have a clear starting spot. Willy Adames and Luis Urías are penciled in as the starting shortstop and third baseman, respectively, and Kolten Wong is patrolling Hiura’s natural position, second base, with prospect Brice Turang waiting in the wings if the Brewers decline Wong’s club option this offseason. With a crowded infield, the Brewers may be forced with the tough call of starting Hiura, who hit .226/.316/.449 in 80 games last season, and trading Tellez, or potentially moving on from Hiura due to the logjam.

If the Brewers decide to trade Tellez, some teams that might be interested in the slugger include the Houston Astros and the San Francisco Giants.

The Astros relied on Yuli Gurriel to hold down first base during the 2022 season, but the 38-year-old, who will turn 39 during the 2023 season, showed signs of decline, hitting a meager .242/.288/.360 in 146 games. It’s a far cry from the strong .319/.383/.462 line the righty posted in the 2021 season, and more akin to his weaker, pandemic-shortened 2020 showing in which he hit .232/.274/.384 in 57 games. Internally, the Astros have Yainer Díaz and Joe Perez as potential heirs to Gurriel. Both players made their MLB debut in 2022, but neither progressed through the minor league system as first basemen. Díaz, who hit .294/.343/.587 in Triple-A Sugar Land this past season split time at catcher and first, after beginning his minor league career as a catcher. Perez spent time at the other corner infield position, third base, but is blocked by All-Star Alex Bregman. Perez spent the majority of the 2022 season at Doble-A Corpus Christi where he slashed .265/.355/.397 in 64 games.

The Giants primarily used a combination of Brandon Belt and Wilmer Flores at first base this past season. The lefty Belt hit an underwhelming .213/.326/.350 and underwent season-ending surgery on his right knee while the righty Flores hit a slightly stronger .229/.316/.394. With Belt a free agent, the Giants could trade for Tellez to platoon with utility man Wilmer Flores. However, the Giants may opt to bring back Belt in hopes of a rebound season after he slashed an impressive .274/.378/.597 during the 2021 season.

Tender Deadline Signings: 11/30/21

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With the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming tonight at 8pm ET — the MLBPA and MLB jointly agreed to move the deadline up a couple days due to the looming expiration of the collective bargaining agreement — we’ll likely see a slew of arbitration-eligible players signing one-year deals.

It’s commonplace for a large batch of players to sign deals in the hours leading up to the tender deadline. “Pre-tender” deals of this nature often fall shy of projections due to the fact that teams use the looming threat of a non-tender to enhance their leverage. Arbitration contracts at this juncture are often take-it-or-leave-it propositions, with the “leave it” end of that arrangement resulting in the player being cut loose. Given the widely expected lockout, there could be more incentive than usual for borderline non-tender candidates to take those offers rather than being cast out into free agency just hours before a transaction freeze is implemented.

As a reminder, arbitration contracts are not fully guaranteed. In a typical year, a team can cut a player on an arb contract at any point before the halfway point in Spring Training and only be responsible for 30 days’ termination pay (about one-sixth of the contract). Releasing a player in the second half of Spring Training bumps the termination pay to 45 days of his prorated salary.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month, although for many of the players listed below, this isn’t so much avoiding arbitration as it is avoiding a non-tender. Here’s a look at today’s agreements…

  • The Yankees have agreed to deals with infielder Gio Urshela and right-hander Domingo German, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links). Urshela will make $6.55MM, while German has agreed to a $1.75MM deal. Urshela has two seasons of control remaining; German is controllable for three years. Urshela is coming off a .267/.301/.419 showing while playing third base and shortstop. German tossed 98 1/3 innings of 4.58 ERA ball.
  • The Twins have signed three arbitration-eligible pitchers, per reports from Feinsand and Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (on Twitter). Right-hander Jharel Cotton signed for $700K, reliever Caleb Thielbar lands $1.3MM and reliever Tyler Duffey signs for $3.8MM. Thielbar and Duffey were both productive members of the Minnesota relief corps in 2021. Cotton was recently claimed off waivers from the Rangers.
  • The Giants have agreed to terms with outfielder Austin Slater on a $1.85MM deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). The 28-year-old (29 next month) appeared at all three spots on the grass while hitting .241/.320/.423 over 306 plate appearances in 2021.
  • Reliever Emilio Pagan and the Padres have agreed on a $2.3MM deal, reports Rosenthal (on Twitter). The 30-year-old worked 63 1/3 innings of 4.83 ERA/3.93 SIERA ball this past season.
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $2MM deal with left-hander Caleb Smith, reports Zach Buchanan of the Athletic (via Twitter). The 30-year-old posted a 4.83 ERA/4.68 SIERA across 113 2/3 innings in a swing capacity in 2021.

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Brewers Activate Rowdy Tellez From 10-Day Injured List

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The Brewers announced a trio of roster moves, including the activation of first baseman Rowdy Tellez from the 10-day injured list.  First baseman Keston Hiura was optioned to Triple-A to make space for Tellez on the active roster.  Milwaukee also outrighted utilityman Tim Lopes to Triple-A, four days after Lopes was designated for assignment.

Tellez returns after missing three weeks due to a right patella strain.  The slugger and the Brewers each hope that the time off has corrected what had been a nagging knee problem for Tellez, and that he is now ready to roll for the Brew Crew’s postseason stretch.

While the Brewers’ May acquisition of Willy Adames has been rightfully lauded as a turning point in the season, the club’s trade for Tellez in early July shouldn’t be overlooked as another key move.  Tellez got off to a brutal start with the Blue Jays this year, prompting Toronto to clear its first base/DH logjam and upgrade its struggling bullpen by moving Tellez to Milwaukee for Trevor Richards.  Tellez responded to the change of scenery, hitting .270/.329/.474 with seven home runs during his first 167 plate appearances in a Brewers uniform.

The Tellez deal was necessary in part because Hiura struggled so badly, and he will likely finish the season with a .168/.256/.301 slash line over 197 PA at the big league level in 2021.  After a huge rookie campaign in 2019, Hiura didn’t hit well in 2020 before cratering this season, leaving the former top prospect as something of an unknown quantity heading into next year.  Hiura is still only 25 years old and has continued to hit well at the Triple-A level, at least, but it remains to be seen if the Brewers still view him as a potential future cornerstone.

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