Pirates GM Ben Cherington Discusses Suwinski, Davis, Tellez
Pirates GM Ben Cherington spoke to reporters (including Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) recently about the struggles a few key players have faced on offense this season in Pittsburgh, including recently-optioned outfielder Jack Suwinski. Despite the club’s decision to option the 25-year-old earlier this week, Cherington made clear that the club believes in his talent.
“Jack is really important to us,” Cherington said, as relayed by Hiles. “..Clearly believe that the best version of our team in 2024 has Jack on it, doing the things that we know he’s capable of doing. We tried to give that as much time as we could to get on track.”
That time to work things out came in the form of 157 plate appearances in the majors with Pittsburgh this season, where Suwinski slashed a brutal .174/.268/.297 despite being just one year removed from a breakout season where he posted a 112 wRC+ in 144 games as the club’s regular center fielder. That upside is certainly tantalizing, but Cherington indicated that the club’s decision to option him comes from a belief that Suwinski will need “consistent” at-bats on a daily basis that they can’t afford to him at the big league level.
With veteran franchise face Andrew McCutchen installed at DH and Bryan Reynolds taking one corner spot every day, that left just two spots in the outfield for a combination of Suwinski, Michael A. Taylor, Edward Olivares, and Connor Joe. Olivares and Joe have both hit fairly well to this point in the season, while Taylor is both not optionable and also an excellent defender in center field. Even with that outfield logjam complicating matters, Cherington still indicated that the club hopes that he’ll be able to show enough to return to the majors at some point this year, although he made clear that there is “no guarantee” as to when or if he’ll be back in the majors this year.
Suwinski isn’t the only potential core piece that the Pirates optioned to the minors this month, as the club also optioned catcher Henry Davis just after the calendar flipped to May. Davis, 24, was the first overall pick in the 2021 draft and made his debut last season but struggled at the plate while working almost exclusively as an outfielder. Injuries to the club’s catching corps this offseason spurred Pittsburgh to return Davis to his native position behind the plate, where he looked to be below average but serviceable with the glove. That would be well worthwhile if Davis was a stud on offense, but he hit just .162/.280/.206 in 23 games prior to his demotion.
Fortunately, Davis has caught fire in the weeks since then at Triple-A with an otherworldly .315/.456/.741 slash line in 15 games. That strong hot stretch earned Davis considerable praise from Cherington, who acknowledged that the youngster has been “working hard” since being optioned and that the club is seeing “progress” both in his on-field results and in the specific goals the club set out for him when he was demoted. If Davis can reach the ceiling that made him a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport a couple of years ago, that would be a huge boost to a Pirates club that has struggled to a 24-28 start this season despite winning 11 of their first 16 games this year.
Not every struggling player can be optioned to the minor leagues, of course, and that includes first baseman Rowdy Tellez. The 29-year-old slugger signed a one-year deal in Pittsburgh coming off a down season in Milwaukee last year and has looked even worse through 45 games with the Pirates this season, hitting a nightmarish .175/.242/.225 that’s a whopping 64% below the league average hitter in terms of wRC+.
In spite of his struggles, it doesn’t appear that the club doesn’t plan on giving up on Tellez any time soon, and Cherington confirmed as much in comments to reporters. While the GM acknowledged that the club isn’t “seeing the outcomes we hoped to see” out of Tellez to this point, he also made clear that Tellez is healthy and that the underlying skills that prompted the Pirates to target him, including his bat speed and strong power potential, don’t seem to have changed.
Even as the club intends to stick with Tellez for the time being, that doesn’t mean they haven’t begun to lean less heavily on him. Tellez is still a semi-regular fixture in the club’s lineup with appearances in 15 of the club’s 21 games this month, but Joe has begun to see increasing playing time at first base as a result of a strong .273/.344/.460 slash line in 45 games this season. Should the Pirates decide to move on from Tellez at some point, non-roster veteran Jake Lamb could serve as a potential left-handed complement to Joe at first base. The 33-year-old is currently playing for the Pirates on a minor league deal in their system with a .341/.428/.500 slash line in 37 games and had some success in the majors as recently as 2022.
Pirates Notes: Bae, Tellez, Lamb
The Pirates announced Tuesday that they’ve recalled infielder/outfielder Ji Hwan Bae from Triple-A Indianapolis and optioned righty Ryder Ryan to Triple-A in his place. (Noah Wiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported Bae’s looming promotion). It’s the third straight season with some MLB time for Bae, but this time around he’ll be looking to carve out some staying power on the heels of a big start to his season in the International League.
Through his first 122 plate appearances of the season, Bae has turned in a ridiculous .367/.479/.551 batting line — about 72% better than league-average production, by measure of wRC+. He’s clearly earned himself a look in the majors, though there’s ample reason to take those rate stats with a grain of salt. For instance, Bae has been set down on strikes in 28% of his plate appearances so far. Were it not for a comically high .525 average on balls in play, his slash line wouldn’t look nearly so strong. Fans should temper their expectations, gaudy Triple-A stats notwithstanding.
That said, there are also some encouraging signs. Bae is drawing walks at a mammoth 17.2% clip through his first 27 Triple-A games. He’s popped four homers after only hitting three in 120 games (MLB and Triple-A combined) last season. He’s 7-for-10 in stolen bases as well, showing the speed that helped him swipe 24 bags for the Bucs just last season. At the very least, he’s deserving of an opportunity to try to show he’s better than 2023’s .231/.296/.311 slash in 371 big league plate appearances.
Bae has experience at second base and in the outfield, but the latter seems a likelier landing spot. The Pirates only recently called up second baseman Nick Gonzales in another effort to spark a tepid offense, and he’s already ripped a couple of homers while posting a solid enough .265/.297/.471 line in 38 turns at the plate.
One option for the Bucs would be to displace struggling first baseman Rowdy Tellez, pushing right fielder Connor Joe to first base in place. Tellez has managed only a .181/.250/.233 line in 128 plate appearances since signing a one-year, $3.2MM deal over the winter. Meanwhile, Joe — who’s played 750 big league innings at first base — has mashed at a .280/.350/.476 pace. With six long balls, he’s already more than halfway to his 2023 total (11) in just one-third the playing time.
Jason Mackey of the Post-Gazette took a look at Tellez’s significant struggles yesterday, noting that players like Bae and minor league signee Jake Lamb (.342/.438/.514 in 137 Triple-A plate appearances) have earned a look with their play thus far. Mackey speculated in an appearance on 93.7 FM The Fan in Pittsburgh this morning that a move involving Tellez could be nigh, though he’s since more concretely reported that Tellez is expected to hang onto his roster spot for now and to be in uniform for tonight’s contest.
Assistant general manager Steve Sanders appeared on The Fan this weekend as well, touching on Lamb’s success in Indianapolis and whether the club might be tempted to make a move (link via Justin Guerriero of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review). Sanders sidestepped, calling Lamb “an incredible professional on and off the field” as well as “one of the toughest outs in the minor leagues right now.” Sanders praised Lamb’s leadership and work with young Pirates prospects in Triple-A but wouldn’t commit to a promotion in the near future, only stating: “It gives us a really good feeling knowing we have a quality bat there.”
Pittsburgh has received strong offensive output from the aforementioned Joe, from Bryan Reynolds and from catcher Joey Bart, in addition to a handful of roughly league-average batting lines (Oneil Cruz, Andrew McCutchen, Edward Olivares). They’ve also seen 2023 breakout slugger Jack Suwinski struggle tremendously, however, while top catching prospect Henry Davis has already been optioned to Indianapolis in an effort to get back on track at the plate. Opening Day second baseman Jared Triolo has hit just .212/.297/.265 and could see his playing time dry up once Ke’Bryan Hayes is ready to return at third base. Triolo has shifted to the hot corner for now to cover for the injured Hayes and in deference to Gonzales.
Currently, Pittsburgh is tied with Oakland for the third-fewest runs in the majors (180). Pirates hitters collectively rank 27th in batting average (.226), 26th in on-base percentage (.301) and 28th in slugging percentage (.353). At 24.7%, they have the game’s sixth-highest strikeout rate, although to their credit, the 9.4% team walk rate is also tied for fifth-highest in MLB. For now, they’ll hope that the recent additions of Gonzales and now Bae can be a catalyst for better run production, but more significant changes likely loom on the horizon if the lineup continues to sputter.
Pirates Sign Rowdy Tellez
The Pirates announced the signing of first baseman Rowdy Tellez on a one-year contract. It’s reportedly a $3.2MM guarantee. Tellez, who is represented by Primo Sports Group, can earn an additional $800K in incentives.
Tellez has spent the past two and a half seasons in the NL Central as a member of the Brewers. He connected on 35 home runs as recently as 2022. Tellez’s power numbers evaporated last season, as he slumped to 13 longballs through 351 trips to the plate. His slugging percentage fell from .461 to a fringy .376 mark.
Overall, the left-handed hitter turned in a .215/.291/.376 line in 106 contests this year. That’s clearly insufficient for a player whose profile is built around the bat. Tellez doesn’t offer any baserunning value and rates as a below-average defender at first base. Combined with his career-worst showing in the batter’s box, he was below replacement level in 2023.
Pittsburgh takes a low-cost roll of the dice to see if Tellez can recapture some of his previous form. He carried a career .236/.307/.462 line into last season. While that’s still middling production from an average and on-base perspective, he’d shown legitimate power upside. Tellez’s 2023 numbers may have been impacted somewhat by health questions. He lost a couple weeks in July with right forearm inflammation before sustaining a fracture on the ring finger of his left hand in an outfield collision while chasing fly balls during batting practice. That kept him out of action until the middle of August.
The 28-year-old was eligible for arbitration for a final time this offseason. Milwaukee declined to tender him a contract at a projected $5.9MM salary. He’ll indeed come up shy of that figure on the open market but he’ll get a big league opportunity for a rebound showing. Tellez will surpass six years of service time next season and return to free agency at year’s end.
Pittsburgh had a clear need for first base help. The Bucs trade Carlos Santana at the deadline, sending the veteran switch-hitter to Milwaukee in a move that was necessitated for the Brewers by Tellez’s struggles and injuries. Pittsburgh relied mostly on Alfonso Rivas down the stretch; they waived him at season’s end and lost him to the Guardians. Santana returned to free agency, leaving the potential for a reunion, but the Bucs will take what is likely to be a lower-cost shot on Tellez instead.
A left-handed hitter, Tellez seems a likely platoon partner for Connor Joe. The latter produced a .265/.365/.452 showing against left-handed pitching last year. Tellez owns a .231/.302/.464 career slash versus righty arms.
Pittsburgh’s player payroll is up to roughly $58MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. The Bucs opened the ’23 season around $73MM. GM Ben Cherington said at the Winter Meetings the team anticipates surpassing last year’s spending level. That could leave $20MM+ in further space for the front office, which’ll likely look for a mid-rotation arm and perhaps second base help in the coming weeks.
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Pirates were in agreement with Tellez. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported it was a one-year deal that guaranteed roughly $3MM and maxed out at $4MM with incentives. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette specified the $3.2MM guarantee.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Central Notes: Pirates, Twins, Cardinals
On the heels of a 76-86 season and a fourth place finish in the NL Central, the Pirates are looking for upgrades in several areas. Starting pitching appears to be a focus for Pittsburgh this offseason, particularly on the heels of yesterday’s news that right-hander Johan Oviedo is set to undergo Tommy John surgery. Beyond their club’s need for multiple starting pitching additions, GM Ben Cherington has indicated that his front office hopes to make a veteran addition at first base this offseason, as the club did by inking Carlos Santana last offseason.
While Santana is a free agent again this offseason, FanSided’s Robert Murray suggests a pair of recently non-tendered sluggers who could be of interest to the Pirates this offseason: Rowdy Tellez and Dominic Smith. Tellez, 29 in March, is coming off an injury-plagued 2023 campaign where he managed just 351 plate appearances but was among Milwaukee’s best hitters in 2022 with a .219/.306/.461 slash line and 35 home runs in 599 trips to the plate. Smith, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick who saw significant success with the Mets in 2019-20, slashing .299/.366/.571 in 139 games across the two seasons. He’s struggled since then with a .243/.311/.355 slash line over the past three seasons, though he did bounce back somewhat with the Nationals in 2023 to post a roughly league average line of .254/.326/.366 in 153 games as the club’s regular first baseman.
More from around MLB’s Central divisions…
- As the Twins look to reduce payroll this offseason, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune relays that Minnesota’s efforts to cut costs have not been limited to the major league roster. The club’s scouting department has seen a number of departures thanks to both desire to trim payroll and “streamline” the club’s scouting apparatus with an emphasis on analytics. Among the scouts who have parted ways with the Twins this offseason, per Neal, are Bill Milos, Rafael Yanez, and Mike Larson, all of whom Neal indicates will be replaced internally. Neal adds that the club also parted ways with director of Latin American scouting Fred Guerrero, who has since joined the Royals, but Guerrero’s position will be filled by external hire Ramon Barinas going forward. In addition to these scouting changes, the Twins figure to consider a variety of avenues to trimming salary off the major league roster this offseason, perhaps including a trade of glove-first catcher Christian Vazquez.
- Cardinals right-hander Andre Pallante was among the club’s most valuable rookies in 2022, when he posted a 3.17 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 108 innings split between the rotation and bullpen. Though Pallante posted a below-average 16% strikeout rate that season, he made up for it with a fantastic 63.9% groundball rate. Things didn’t go so smoothly for Pallante in 2023, however, as the righty’s ERA soared to 4.76, 8% worse than league average by measure of ERA+ despite an even stronger 77.8% groundball rate in 68 innings of work as a full-time reliever. Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes today that Pallante, 25, has already begun working on pitch shapes and mechanics this offseason after spending time at a sports performance facility in North Carolina. If the adjustments help Pallante recover his 2022 form, it would be an excellent turn of events for a St. Louis club hoping to turn things around after a 91-loss season and a last-place finish in the NL Central as the young righty looks to contribute to the club’s late-inning mix alongside Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, and JoJo Romero.
MLBTR Podcast: Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Phillies re-sign Aaron Nola (0:50)
- The Braves sign Reynaldo López (7:20)
- The Cardinals sign Lance Lynn (10:30)
- Interesting non-tenders, including Brandon Woodruff… (12:10)
- Spencer Turnbull… (14:10)
- ..and Rowdy Tellez (17:10)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Why is the MLB offseason so slow to get going? The other leagues, most of your top free agents are off the board within a few days. It’s been three weeks since players filed for free agency and nothing. (19:55)
- Do you think the Dodgers do something major this year or will it be another disappointing offseason for the fans? (23:30)
- Do you think the Pirates sign Rhys Hoskins or settle for someone cheaper? (26:20)
Check out our past episodes!
- Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
- Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here
- Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here
Brewers To Non-Tender Rowdy Tellez
The Brewers are planning to non-tender first baseman Rowdy Tellez, reports Robert Murray of Fansided. Tellez was projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz for a $5.9MM salary in his final trip through arbitration this offseason.
The 28-year-old Tellez smacked a career-high 35 home runs for the 2022 Brewers but was unable to replicate that production at the plate in 2023. This past season saw the slugger turn in a career-worst .215/.291/.376 batting line with just 13 home runs — a stark decline from the prior year’s offensive output.
Perhaps the Brewers might’ve been willing to give him another chance or find a trade partner if Tellez were a standout defender, but the 6’4″, 270-pound slugger is limited to first base and designated hitter only and draws below-average marks for his glovework. Tellez also generally requires a platoon partner; he hit just .174/.269/.261 against left-handers this year and owns a tepid .236/.308/.386 batting line in 438 career plate appearances versus same-handed opponents.
As his 2022 campaign showed, Tellez has the capability to be a source of booming power in the middle of a lineup, but his margin for error is rather slight, given the lack of defensive versatility and on-base issues. Now that he’s a free agent, a club with openings at first base and/or designated hitter and in the market for some low-cost power upside figures to take a look.
Justin Wilson Won’t Pitch Again In 2023
When the Brewers placed Justin Wilson on the 15-day injured list on July 29, it was expected that the southpaw was in for another lengthy absence. Manager Craig Counsell described Wilson’s left lat strain as “pretty significant” at the time, and Counsell updated reporters (including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) on Friday that Wilson will indeed miss the rest of the 2023 season.
Wilson’s year will end without a single MLB appearance, as his time on the Brewers’ active roster was short-lived. Milwaukee only activated Wilson from the 60-day IL on July 28, as the left-hander was returning from Tommy John surgery rehab. Unfortunately, Wilson was warming up in the bullpen for his first appearance of the season when he suffered his lat strain, thus ending his Brewers debut before it officially happened. Between this injury and the TJ surgery, Wilson has only pitched in five games (for 3 2/3 innings) since the start of the 2022 season.
The Brew Crew signed Wilson to a one-year free agent deal last offseason worth $1MM in guaranteed money — $850K in salary for 2023, and a $150K buyout of a $2.5MM club option for 2024. The contract was designed to give Milwaukee some flexibility if Wilson ended up missing most or all of the season due to Tommy John rehab, so in theory, the lat strain shouldn’t much change the original equation for the team. On the other hand, $2.5MM is a decent amount of money for a medium-payroll team to spend on a veteran (Wilson turns 36 this month) reliever who hasn’t pitched in almost two full seasons. This isn’t a decision the Brewers will have to make until after the World Series is over, so there’s plenty of time for the club to monitor Wilson’s recovery from the lat injury.
In better injury news for the Brewers, Counsell said that Rowdy Tellez is slated to begin a Triple-A rehab assignment on Tuesday. Tellez hasn’t played since July 4, as a 10-day IL stint that started due to forearm inflammation was then extended when Tellez broke the fingertip on his left ring finger in a fluke accident while shagging fly balls before a game.
Central Notes: Perez, Tellez, Jimenez, Kelly, O’Neill, Knizner
Salvador Perez suffered a left hamstring strain while scoring a run in today’s 8-4 Royals victory over the Rays. Perez scored from first base on a MJ Melendez double, but the extra effort was costly for the veteran catcher, and a trip to the injured list now seems likely. The time lost will depend on the grade of Perez’s strain, and manager Matt Quartraro told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters that the club will have more information on Monday.
An injury to Perez just adds to a nightmare of a season for the Royals, as they are a measly 27-67 after today’s win. Perez is hitting .258/.299/.444 with 15 home runs over 345 plate apperances, translating to below-average (97 wRC+) overall offense for the 33-year-old backstop. It represents a dropoff from Perez’s usual production, yet he remains one of the best bats on a Royals team that has almost entirely underachieved. Melendez and Freddy Fermin seem likely to take over catching duties in the event of Perez hitting the IL, and if you’re wondering if the injury might impact Perez’s trade value, Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo already stated last month that Perez isn’t going anywhere.
More from the two Central divisions…
- The Brewers were expecting Rowdy Tellez back from the 10-day IL this coming Tuesday, but the first baseman suffered another injury while shagging fly balls prior to today’s game. As manager Craig Counsell told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak and other reporters, Tellez was trying to make a catch when he caught his left ring finger between the seams of the outfield wall padding. The result was a broken fingertip, a torn nail, and an estimated 3-4 more weeks on the injured list. Tellez had been sidelined with forearm inflammation, and he was looking to rebound from a nasty slump that had dropped his numbers to .213/.285/.388 over 288 PA. First base/DH was already expected to be a target area for the Brewers heading into the trade deadline, and Tellez’s extended absence now only increases the club’s need for some extra corner power.
- Eloy Jimenez will be out of the White Sox lineup for at least “the next few days” due to a groin injury, manager Pedro Grifol told MLB.com and other media. Jimenez had to make an early exit from today’s game due to the injury, and testing will determine the severity or if Jimenez might be headed for the 10-day IL. The slugger already missed around three weeks earlier this season while recovering from an appendectomy, and a variety of injuries have limited Jimenez’s playing time over his five Major League seasons. Over 259 PA for Chicago this season, Jimenez has 12 home runs and a .269/.313/.463 slash line.
- In better injury news for the White Sox, Joe Kelly threw a bullpen session today and plans to return from the 15-day IL during the Sox/Mets series that begins on Tuesday, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. Kelly was placed on the IL due to elbow inflammation on July 5, so he’ll return after a minimal stint. Secondary metrics indicate that Kelly is drastically outperforming his uninspiring 4.82 ERA, so some better bottom-line numbers over the next couple of weeks might turn Kelly into a trade chip for the White Sox at the deadline.
- The Cardinals activated catcher Andrew Knizner off the 10-day IL today, and manager Oli Marmol told reporters (including Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that the club will continue to carry three catchers on the roster since it wants to see more of youngster Ivan Herrera. It remains to be seen how the Cardinals will split the playing time between Willson Contreras, Knizner, and Herrera, but Knizner was the only member of the trio to see action in the Cards’ 8-4 win over the Nationals today. In other St. Louis injury news, Tyler O’Neill might return from the IL on Tuesday if he emerges in good form after a Triple-A rehab game today.
Brewers Designate Mike Brosseau For Assignment, Select J.C. Mejía
The Brewers announced a series of roster moves today, reinstating infielder/outfielder Brian Anderson from the paternity list, recalling right-hander Tyson Miller and selecting the contract of righty J.C. Mejía. In corresponding moves, they optioned relievers Clayton Andrews and J.B. Bukauskas in addition to placing first baseman Rowdy Tellez on the 10-day injured list due to right forearm inflammation. To get Mejia onto the 40-man, infielder Mike Brosseau was designated for assignment. Additionally, left-hander Thomas Pannone, who was designated for assignment on the weekend, was released.
Brosseau, 29, has alternated hot and cold in his career, serving as a utility player for the Rays and Brewers. He hit .284/.343/.500 for the Rays over 2019 and 2020 but then slumped to a line of .187/.266/.347 in 2021. He was then traded to the Brewers and bounced back with a .255/.344/.418 showing last year for a 118 wRC+.
He and the club avoided arbitration in the offseason by agreeing to a $1.4MM salary for this year. He had shown an ability to provide above-average offense while playing every infield position, the outfield corners and even some mop-up duty on the mound, making that a relative bargain price. Unfortunately, he’s having another down season at the plate here in 2023. He hit .205/.256/.397 for a wRC+ of 74 and got optioned to the minors about a month ago. He’s been even worse in Triple-A since then, hitting .188/.232/.375 in 69 plate appearances.
The Brewers will now have a week to trade Brosseau or pass him through waivers. He’s obviously having a rough year but has plenty of past success that could interest other clubs. He also has a couple of option years, including this one, meaning he wouldn’t even require an active roster spot. That could hold some appeal for a club looking for a bit of extra versatile depth.
Mejía, now 26, was acquired from Cleveland prior to the 2022 season but received an 80-game suspension for a positive PED test in May of that year. He was outrighted off the 40-man in August. This year, he’s been in Triple-A, tossing 30 1/3 innings over 23 appearances. He has a 3.86 ERA in that time, striking out 25.2% of opponents against a 10.2% walk rate. He’s also kept the ball on the ground at an incredible 64.5% clip.
The Brewers have used their bullpen quite a bit in recent days, including last night’s contest which went to 11 innings and saw the club use six different pitchers. They’ve brought up Mejía and Miller to provide the bullpen with some fresh arms, with five games left before the All-Star break.
Pannone has previously been outrighted in his career and therefore would have had the right to reject another such assignment. The club has skipped that formality and just sent him back to the open market to look for his next opportunity. He made one appearance for the Brewers in his brief time on the roster, tossing 2 2/3 innings with two earned runs allowed. In 53 1/3 Triple-A innings this year, he posted a 2.70 ERA.
Brewers Should Look To Add At First Base This Summer
The Brewers knocked off the Mets yesterday, pushing four games above .500. With the Reds losing later in Baltimore, Milwaukee nudged back into first place in the NL Central.
No one will be overwhelmed with the Brew Crew’s first couple months. They’ve been outscored by 20 runs on the year and carry a 23-27 record since the start of May. Yet the Cardinals’ disastrous start leaves the door wide open for Milwaukee to take the division, even with Cincinnati outpacing most expectations and the Cubs playing their way back into the mix.
In his first summer leading baseball operations, GM Matt Arnold figures to look for ways to improve the offense. Milwaukee has been a pitching and defense team for years, but the lineup has become particularly problematic in 2023. The Brewers rank 25th in runs despite the generally hitter-friendly nature of American Family Field. Only the A’s have a lower batting average than Milwaukee’s .226 clip, while the Brewers rank 25th in on-base percentage (.303), 28th in slugging (.373) and have the game’s third-highest strikeout rate (25.7%).
Any time a team is struggling to that extent, there’ll be multiple areas of concern. For Milwaukee, none stands out more than first base. The Brewers have gotten just a .223/.294/.378 showing out of the bat-first position. By measure of wRC+, that’s 25th in MLB. The struggles have mounted over the last two months, coinciding with the team’s slide from an 18-10 start. Since May 1, Milwaukee first basemen are hitting .217/.286/.349. Only the Angels have gotten less in that span.
That’s in large part due to an extended slump from Rowdy Tellez. The left-handed hitter had an excellent April (.247/.333/.533) but has hit only .203/.269/.327 in 167 plate appearances over the past two months. His walks and contact quality have both fallen off precipitously. Tellez drew a free pass in over 12% of his trips to the dish in the first month; that’s down to a pedestrian 8.4% clip since.
The drop in batted ball results is even more concerning. Tellez’s calling card has always been big power potential. He popped 35 home runs a season ago and routinely posted excellent batted ball metrics. That hasn’t been the case in 2023. Tellez’s rate of hard contact (batted balls hit 95+ MPH) has fallen from the 45-48% range between 2020-22 to a roughly average 38.4% clip. The softer contact is borne out in the results. He’s on a 25-homer pace with an overall .218/.293/.408 batting line.
Unless Tellez breaks out of this slump in the next few weeks, Arnold and his front office could prioritize a first base upgrade at the deadline. Early-season dice rolls on Luke Voit and Jon Singleton didn’t pan out; neither is still in the organization. Darin Ruf broke a bone in his knee almost immediately after signing and is out into August. Owen Miller is better served as a multi-positional infielder than an everyday first baseman. Keston Hiura is raking in Triple-A again, but he’s struggled to put the ball in play whenever he’s gone up against big league arms.
It’s still too early to know exactly which first basemen could be attainable. Five teams (the A’s, Rockies, Nationals, Cardinals and Royals) are double-digit games out of a playoff spot. Oakland might be open to selling high on Rule 5 find Ryan Noda, but that’s by no means a guarantee. Washington hasn’t gotten much from Joey Meneses or Dominic Smith this year. Colorado could deal C.J. Cron, but he only returned from a nagging back issue yesterday and didn’t hit well before the injury.
Kansas City lost Vinnie Pasquantino to season-ending shoulder surgery and probably wouldn’t have traded him anyhow. It’s still tough to imagine the Cardinals moving Paul Goldschmidt and dealing such a major hit to their 2024 chances; even if they did put the defending NL MVP on the market, they almost certainly wouldn’t want to move him to one of their top divisional competitors.
The Brewers may have to wait a few more weeks to hope for other teams to fall out of contention. Justin Turner is having a strong season and can opt out of his deal with the Red Sox at year’s end. Boston is only three games out of a playoff spot right now; if they dropped five or six back by the deadline, they could listen to offers. Maybe the Orioles would sell low on Ryan Mountcastle, although he’s having an even poorer season than Tellez to date. Pittsburgh’s Connor Joe is a right-handed hitter with a good track record against lefty arms. He’s miscast as a regular but could be a fallback platoon partner with Tellez if Milwaukee can’t swing a bigger upgrade.
Regardless of what the Brewers do this summer, Tellez’s recent struggles put his longer-term future with the organization in doubt. He’s playing this season on a $4.95MM salary and would be in line for a raise in his final season of arbitration. His current trajectory points towards a non-tender. That’d be true on virtually every team and is particularly the case for a Milwaukee organization that has tended not to value the slugging first baseman highly (i.e. non-tendering Chris Carter in 2016 and declining a net $6.5MM option on Eric Thames three years later).
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