Shohei Ohtani

Latest On NPB-MLB Posting Negotiations

By Jeff Todd | November 21, 2017 at 3:00pm CDT

Last night, we learned that the Major League Baseball Player’s Association had extended its deadline to finalize an agreement regarding the transfer system for players moving between Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and Major League Baseball. With a new union-imposed stopping point at 8pm EST today, the parties in interest — including the three entities just mentioned as well as NPB’s member teams, individually — are expected to continue negotiating in hopes of finding agreement on posting rules that will allow NPB clubs to make certain players available to MLB teams — including, especially, young Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani.

We’ll use this post to track and analyze the key news on talks as it hits the wire:

There’s general optimism that something will get done, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. Sherman tweets that the talks are “down to [a] few items,” but notes that the signals are that tonight’s deadline is a firm one for reaching agreement.

Earlier Updates

There has been a critical potential settlement of one major sticking point, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links). MLB and MLBPA have resolved their differences regarding the question of when NPB teams would have the ability to “pull back” posted players who do not achieve a contract that would convey sufficient transfer fee value to their would-be former organization. This provision — the details of which remain unknown — will still need to be considered by NPB and its teams, of course, but resolution of the matter might conceivably put the parties on track to finalizing a deal.
“Pull back” rights are of particular importance to the system’s operation because the new rules under contemplation would allow NPB teams to collect a percentage of a contract’s guarantee as the transfer fee, rather than a fixed transfer amount determined before the player in question tries to work out an agreement with a MLB club. Understandably, NPB teams are interested in protecting themselves if a player’s market does not develop as hoped, while the union is likely concerned with the possibility that too much latitude might engender disruptions in the broader player market, potentially harming MLB free agents.
While that report generally strikes an optimistic tone, Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link) hears that “big hurdles” remain. Whether those revolve around the pull-back issue or others is not clear at this moment.

MLBPA Extends MLB-NPB Posting Negotiation Deadline

By Jeff Todd | November 20, 2017 at 6:04pm CDT

Negotiations regarding a new posting agreement between Major League Baseball and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have been postponed, according to an announcement from the MLB Player’s Association. While the MLB and NPB seem largely on the same page, the union has the right to authorize any agreement and has engaged on the subject.

It’s a one-day extension at this time, per the MLBPA announcement. Last we heard, the union had set a deadline of 8pm EST today to get something done. With issues still remaining, though, the sides have evidently decided to keep talking for at least another day. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links) reported earlier that there was optimism on a deal, but that some “gaps” still remained.

The news is critical, of course, for the MLB move sought by Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani. For now, he remains in flux, with virtually every major-league organizations watching closely to see if and when he’ll formally be made available.

There appear to be a few areas which the sides need to sort out before we’ll learn Ohtani’s fate. Passan cites some bargaining over the timeline of a MLBPA-proposed window during which NPB teams can make players available for transfer, though that seems to be something where some give-and-take can result in agreement. Jim Allen of Kyodo News, meanwhile, hears of a more fundamental dispute over the question whether posted players can be pulled back if their ultimate contract does not result in a sufficient fee to their NPB club. (Twitter link.) Because the new proposed system would allow the Japanese team to receive a percentage-based fee, rather than the fixed sum that previously was utilized, the question of revocability of posting is of added importance.

MLBPA Sets Monday Deadline For Posting System Negotiations

By Jeff Todd | November 19, 2017 at 3:12pm CDT

Nov. 19: Monday’s deadline is set for 8 p.m. ET, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link).

Nov. 17: MLB commissioner Rob Manfred told reporters that he expects an agreement to be reached (link via ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick). “I don’t sense that this is a disconnect with the union,” said Manfred. “These are relatively small issues. … I don’t think they’re earth-shattering.”

In fact, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the union’s issues with the proposed agreement aren’t necessarily related to Ohtani. The union is on board with extending the current agreement for one year but takes umbrage with several components of the system that would go into place next offseason.

The system, as currently constructed, would allow NPB teams to post players throughout the majority of the offseason; the union, not wanting domestic free agency to be held up by the uncertainty of whether Japanese players will be posted, wants NPB teams to make that call by Nov. 15.

The new proposal also awards the NPB team a sum that is equal to 20 percent of the contract the player signs with an MLB team (not 20 percent of his actual contract, though) and allows the NPB club to rescind its posting of a player if it is unsatisfied with the contract to which he agrees. Rosenthal notes that MLB allowed the pullback provision due to NPB concerns that a player could sign a small deal and then sign a much larger extension within a year or two.

Beyond the extension matter, though, it’s easy to see where NPB might take issue to the 20 percent system without the ability to withdraw its player. The new system bears some similarity to the previous blind bidding system. Under that iteration of the posting system (which is still in place with the Korea Baseball Organization), all 30 teams were allowed to submit blind bids for posted players. That player’s NPB team would then have the ability to accept or reject the top bid.

There’s no word yet on how NPB views the MLBPA’s wish to remove the “pullback” component, but it’s not hard to imagine they’d be reluctant to agree without that luxury. With no way of knowing precisely how MLB clubs would value a player, an NPB club would be taking a significant risk by posting one of its stars and then merely hoping that an MLB team would be willing to pay enough to make the posting of said player profitable.

Both the blind bidding system and the current $20MM maximum give NPB teams some degree of up-front knowledge of how they’ll be compensated; without the “pullback” system in this scenario, they’d effectively be rolling the dice on how MLB teams value their top talents. In the case of a legitimate superstar, there’d be little reason for concern. Rather, there’d be upside, as clubs with that rare caliber of player would stand to gain considerably more than the current $20MM maximum. But in the case of above-average players that aren’t necessarily at the Ohtani or Yu Darvish level, that system would be substantially more risk-laden and may simply prevent NPB clubs from posting all but star-level talents.

Nov. 16: The MLBPA has set a Monday deadline to come to an agreement on a new posting system, Heyman now tweets. If the union sticks to that deadline, MLB clubs will have clarity on Ohtani’s availability as much as two weeks earlier than Halem initially suggested.

Nov. 15, 10:10pm: The MLBPA is still holding up negotiations, per FanRag’s Jon Heyman. While MLB, NPB and the MLBPA are presently at a “standstill,” there’s still optimism that an agreement will eventually be worked out. Heyman reported last week that the union had significant concerns regarding the fact that the Fighters would stand to receive a $20MM windfall while Ohtani himself would only be compensated at a maximum level of about $3.5MM.

12:12pm: The hope is that Major League Baseball and Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball will finalize a new posting system at some point in early December, MLB Chief Legal Officer Dan Halem tells reporters including Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).

Until that comes to pass, Japanese sensation Shohei Ohtani will not be able to begin the process of moving to the majors. At this point, an agreement on the system seems to be all that stands in the way of what promises to be a fascinating posting.

Extending Shohei Ohtani

By Tim Dierkes | November 15, 2017 at 2:50pm CDT

If Japanese sensation Shohei Ohtani signs with an MLB team, perhaps in the new year, he’ll be limited to a minor league deal. The most Ohtani could receive is $3.535MM from the Rangers, according to Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. The Yankees and Twins are able to offer similar amounts. The Pirates, Marlins, and Mariners can offer $1.5MM or more. Everyone else is capped below $1MM, all the way down to the Indians and Rockies at $10K each.

The assumption is that these differences will not matter much to Ohtani, who might be leaving $200MM on the table by attempting to come to MLB now instead of in two years. He’s already banked millions of dollars from his NPB career, and he would earn the MLB minimum of $545K as a rookie.

It is also true that if Ohtani wants to lock down life-changing money, he would be able to do so with little or no MLB experience. Ohtani’s team can sign him to an extension at any time, as long as the extension wasn’t discussed as an inducement to sign him in the first place. Three players have signed extensions with fewer than 30 days of big league service time:

The Rays signed Evan Longoria in April 2008 to a six-year, $17.5MM deal that included three club options, two of which covered potential free agent years. Longoria had six days of MLB service.
The Rays signed Matt Moore in December 2011 to a five-year, $14MM deal that included three club options, two of which covered potential free agent years. Moore had 17 days of big league service.
The Astros signed Jonathan Singleton in June 2014 to a five-year, $10MM deal that included three club options, one of which covered a potential free agent year. Singleton’s extension coincided with his big league promotion, meaning he signed with no big league service.

Ohtani’s NPB experience could stand in for the extensive minor league experience that justified these contract extensions. I think a team could offer $20-25MM to Ohtani in April without sounding alarm bells at MLB’s offices. Ohtani’s team would already control him for six years, or even close to seven years if they’re willing to keep him in the minors for a few weeks as the Cubs did with Kris Bryant. So the incentive for a team to offer an extension would be gaining control over some of Ohtani’s potential free agent years. One can imagine that the player’s agent would advise against this, but it is a way Ohtani could guarantee himself good money right out of the gate. It is possible, too, that the agent could attempt to play with the structure established by Longoria, Moore, and Singleton. For example, Singleton’s contract covered only one potential free agent year, with a club option for $13MM. What if Ohtani made the same concession, but with an option price of $20MM or more?

Other players, such as Salvador Perez, Chris Archer, and Tim Anderson, signed extensions with service time ranging from 50 to 156 days. Those deals topped out at Anderson’s $25MM, signed last March. If Ohtani waits until he has one year of Major League service time, the ceiling on a reasonable extension increases quite a bit. Four such players — Anthony Rizzo, Ryan Braun, Christian Yelich, and Andrelton Simmons — signed for $40MM or more guaranteed. Simmons is tops in the one-plus service class, with a seven-year, $58MM deal. After one decent year in MLB, Ohtani should be able to sign an extension worth $60MM or more.

As for that monster deal that would have been a lock if Ohtani waited until he was a true free agent? That probably becomes an option if he logs two successful years in the Majors. Mike Trout signed for $144.5MM over six years, while Buster Posey inked a deal worth $159MM over eight years. It is entirely conceivable that Ohtani could come to the Majors now and sign a $200MM extension in March of 2020. Granted, he would need to play like an MLB superstar over the 2018-19 seasons to make that possible. But to reach those heights in a true MLB free agent bidding war in the 2019-20 offseason, he would have needed to continue at a very high level in NPB anyway. Viewed in that light, Ohtani’s decision to jump to MLB this winter at perhaps his peak ability doesn’t seem so crazy.

Mets Rumors: Ohtani, Smith, Asdrubal, Bullpen, Free Agency

By Steve Adams | November 14, 2017 at 9:27pm CDT

The Mets are weighing an earnest pursuit of Japanese star Shohei Ohtani if and when he is posted by the Nippon Ham Fighters, David Lennon and Marc Carig of Newsday report. While the Mets are limited in what they can offer at present, the team could potentially trade for additional pool money. The greater allure than the signing bonus they can offer, though, comes with the endorsement opportunities available to Ohtani by signing with one of the two teams in the nation’s largest market, Carig and Lennon posit. The Mets also have a strong relationship with Ohtani’s agency, CAA, and they could offer Ohtani opportunities to bat not only on the days he’s pitching but occasionally in the outfield. Lennon notes that the Mets should still be considered a long shot, but it’s nonetheless worth noting that another large-market club could be in the mix for his services.

A few more notes out of Queens…

Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the Mets are indeed interested in Carlos Santana, as FanRag’s Jon Heyman recently suggested, adding that the interest in Santana has a correlation with some executives’ feelings toward prospect Dominic Smith. The former first-round pick made his big league debut late in the 2017 season and didn’t do much to impress, hitting just .198/.262/.395 with a 26.8 percent strikeout rate in 183 plate appearances. Smith is still just 22 years of age, and Puma hardly suggests that the team has completely given up on the young slugger. But, assistant GM John Ricco also suggested to Puma and other reporters that the club could trade from its big league roster if it meant acquiring other big league talent. He also specifically indicated that Wilmer Flores could platoon with Smith, so there’s certainly the possibility that he could yet play a large role for the Mets moving forward.
Puma notes within that seem piece that Ricco suggested Asdrubal Cabrera currently factors into the plan as a third baseman. The Mets could shift him to second base if a better option at the hot corner arises, though MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo tweets that the Mets are most likely to add a second base option this offseason with Cabrera penciled in at third base. Puma writes that while the Mets are being open-minded when it comes to the infield, they are not likely to pursue either Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas in free agency.
The Mets are “ramping up” to make a play that has previously been uncharacteristic for them, tweets Carig. New York, it seems, is prepared to add a reliever to their bullpen even at the cost of a three- or four-year contract. Alderson has typically eschewed such commitments, but Carig notes that it’s considered a high priority for the team. The Post’s Joel Sherman points out that new manager Mickey Callaway and pitching coach Dave Eiland bring some insight into a group of free-agent relievers. Joe Smith, Bryan Shaw and Boone Logan pitched for Callaway in Cleveland (Smith was also drafted by the Mets), while Eiland was the pitching coach for Mike Minor in Kansas City.
Further adding to the notion that the Mets are poised for an active offseason, Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM tweets that Ricco joined him on the air tonight and “made it clear” that the Mets are going to be players on the free-agent market. Bowden notes that position players seem likelier than pitchers, though, with center field, first base, second base and third base all potential areas for addition. The Mets were already linked to center fielder Lorenzo Cain earlier this evening.

AL West Rumors: Mariners, Ohtani, Ichiro, Astros, Bush, Melvin, Maxwell

By Steve Adams | November 14, 2017 at 5:09pm CDT

Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto acknowledged to reporters at the GM Meetings that his club has interest in right-hander Shohei Ohtani, though like other GMs, his comments were mostly vague (link via Greg Johns and Joe Frisaro of MLB.com). “We, like 29 other clubs, have scouted him extensively,” said Dipoto. (Johns and Frisaro note that Dipoto and VP of scouting Tom Allison watched Ohtani pitch in Japan this past September.) “…He’s obviously an incredibly talented player and whoever gets him will be quite happy, I’m sure.” Dipoto wouldn’t comment on whether the team is giving serious consideration to a reunion with Ichiro Suzuki, who is now a free agent. While Dipoto suggested that Ichiro’s free agency “opens a door,” he went on to add that he’s “not entirely sure” it’d be a priority, given the team’s needs at first base, in center field and on the pitching staff.

NL West Notes: Padres, Hosmer, Alcides, Rockies Pen, Dodgers

By Jeff Todd | November 14, 2017 at 7:32am CDT

The Padres have at least held some internal chats about the possibility of pursuing first baseman Eric Hosmer, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. That mostly serves to illustrate how wide open things are at this stage of the offseason, Rosenthal suggests, and there’s little reason at present to view the Pads as a serious suitor. Nevertheless, it seems reasonably notable to hear of the connection. For one thing, it suggests that San Diego GM A.J. Preller is amenable to moving Wil Myers back to the outfield in some circumstances; for another, it hints that the club may be willing to lay out some real cash if an appealing opportunity arises.

Here’s more from out west:

Perhaps another former K.C. standout would be a more achievable target for the Padres. According to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, the team is looking for a “stopgap” at short, with Alcides Escobar among the possibilities. While short would appear to be the natural area for the team to make a more significant investment, Heyman says there’s a belief that top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. could make it to the majors as soon as late 2018. It does seem fair to consider, though, that a few factors might conceivably leave San Diego looking to make a more significant acquisition up the middle. For one thing, Tatis barely reached the Double-A level last year and won’t turn 19 until January. For another, the Friars could still consider adding a quality shortstop that could be moved elsewhere on the diamond if and when Tatis forces his way up.
Rockies GM Jeff Bridich discussed his team’s offseason plans yesterday with reporters including MLB.com’s Thomas Harding and AJ Cassavell. Understandably enough, the focus was on the bullpen. While Bridich said the club is hoping its young relievers can “either retain roles or step up into new roles,” he acknowledged that outside acquisitions will be needed. Outgoing closer Greg Holland is certainly one possibility, says Bridich, but he says that his front office staff is “keeping our eyes and earns open to just about everything.”
Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times discusses the Dodgers’ potential pitch for Japanese star Shohei Ohtani. While Ohtani’s two-way aspirations may seemingly make him a better fit for a smaller-market team in the American League — an organization, that is, that’s more willing and better situated to allow him to attempt the difficult task of both pitching and hitting at the game’s highest level — Hernandez posits that the Dodgers can offer as much and more. The Los Angeles front office will no doubt cook up some interesting possibilities for maximizing Ohtani’s abilities, suggests Hernandez, with the club’s immense rotation depth helping to make it possible.

Crasnick’s Latest: Stanton, Ohtani, JDM, Darvish, Royals, McCutchen

By Steve Adams | November 13, 2017 at 9:20am CDT

In this year’s edition of his annual Hot Stove survey (an always-excellent read), ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick surveyed 40 front office execs and scouts from around the league on nine offseason issues as this week’s GM Meetings kick off. Among the topics discussed, at length, are the possibility of a Giancarlo Stanton trade (and his likeliest destination), where Japanese star Shohei Ohtani will land, how much J.D. Martinez can command in free agency, and whether Yu Darvish’s poor World Series showing hampered his free-agent stock. Crasnick also polled the 40 baseball ops/scouting minds on multiple groups of free agents and trade candidates, asking which will provide the most value and which are likeliest to be dealt.

If you follow the offseason even loosely, you’ll want to be sure to read through the entire column, which is packed with quotes and insight from general managers, scouts and other front-office executives on the players in question and their potential landing spots. Some abbreviated highlights…

Three quarters of the respondents indicated that they expect Stanton to be traded this offseason, with nearly a third listing the Cardinals as the likeliest landing spot. The Giants were the second-most popular spot, though one scout tells Crasnick he has a difficult time envisioning that match, calling the Giants a “bottom-five farm system.” One respondent who felt Stanton would stay in Miami suggests to Crasnick that the Marlins may be underestimating just how much of the contract they’ll need to pay down.
The Yankees and Dodgers split the vote on the surveyed group’s likeliest destinations for Ohtani, with the Rangers not far behind. Several other clubs received a few votes, and four of the 40 respondents suggested that they believed Ohtani would remain with the Nippon Ham Fighters in 2018. There’s still some work to be done with the league, the players’ union and Nippon Professional Baseball before the posting process can begin in earnest. The agreement between MLB and NPB on the current iteration of the posting system expired this offseason.
The Red Sox were the overwhelming favorite when it came to the question of Martinez’s next team, though expectations for his contract varied in size. One GM pegged Martinez at around six years and $140MM, Crasnick notes. Some execs felt he’d fall closer to Justin Upton’s $106MM guarantee.
Only three of the 40 respondents thought that Darvish’s pair of World Series meltdowns would have a substantial impact on his offseason earning capacity. Crasnick’s piece has plenty of insightful quotes on Darvish — more than any other player — from the scouts that were polled. An AL scout tells Crasnick that 15 years ago, the World Series might’ve hurt Darvish, but in a largely sabermetric environment, his late struggles are a “void blip in the radar.”
Crasnick also asked respondents which of the Royals’ big three free agents (Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain) would provide the best value on his next deal, which of Carlos Gomez or Carlos Gonzalez had a better chance of reestablishing himself as a star, and which major 2018-19 free agent among Andrew McCutchen, Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado is likeliest to be traded this winter. I found it somewhat of a surprise to see Hosmer as the decisive favorite in that Royals question, though many scouts praised his glovework despite poor reviews from defensive metrics. McCutchen, less surprisingly, was deemed likeliest of his trio to go, while Gonzalez topped Gomez handily in their own respective face-off.

Quick Hits: Ohtani, McCann, Braves, Phillies

By Connor Byrne | November 11, 2017 at 10:56pm CDT

A few notes from around the game:

Soon-to-be free agent ace/outfielder Shohei Ohtani spoke with the Associated Press and other media on Saturday about his desire to leave Japan for the major leagues this winter. “The other day I met with team officials and stated my intentions,” Ohtani said, referring to the Nippon Ham Fighters. “My request was met with warm words of support, so I hope to do my best in America from next year on.” The 23-year-old is renowned for both his pitching and hitting skills, but he noted that he’s “not a complete player yet,” which is his “strongest reason for wanting to go now.” While Ohtani does have “a strong desire” to continue as a two-way player in the majors, he admitted that he’s unsure if it’ll be possible.
Astros catcher Brian McCann told Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Friday that he’d like to end his career as a member of the Braves, with whom he thrived from 2005-13. “One hundred percent,” said the 33-year-old McCann. “One hundred percent. This is my home. I played close to 10 years here. This organization is really, really, really close to my heart. I love this organization.” McCann, a Georgia native who still lives there, will be a free agent next offseason if the Astros decline his $15MM option. Braves backstops Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki are also slated to hit the open market, which could pave the way for a McCann-Atlanta reunion in 2019 if the club’s interested in making it happen.
The team that makes a surprise splash in free agency is most likely to be the Phillies, according to a group of executives and agents who spoke with Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. “They say they aren’t doing anything, but I have a feeling they will go after someone big,” an exec told Feinsand, who points to right-handers Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb as potential targets for the team. On paper, either would improve a Phillies rotation that ranked 19th in fWAR and 21st in ERA in 2017, when Aaron Nola was their only starter who turned in a particularly strong performance.

Nippon Ham Fighters Announce They Will Allow Shohei Ohtani To Move To Majors

By Jeff Todd | November 10, 2017 at 2:53pm CDT

2:53pm: FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that, unsurprisingly, the Fighters will set the posting fee for Ohtani at the $20MM maximum. However, while MLB will sign off on the deal, Heyman notes that the Players Association still has some issues to work through before it will also sign off. Among their concerns, per Heyman, is the fact that the Fighters will recoup $20MM for Ohtani while the player himself stands to be paid only a mere fraction of that amount.

Heyman doesn’t suggest that the Union’s concerns will necessarily jeopardize Ohtani’s ability to make the jump to the Majors or that they could lead to a significant alteration in the current structure of the posting system. It’s unclear when the MLBPA will ultimately sign off, but it seems that their trepidation could delay the process to some extent.

7:13am: The Nippon Ham Fighters announced that they will allow star pitcher/slugger Shohei Ohtani* to come to the majors via the posting system, as the Japan Times was among the outlets to report.

That does not quite make things official, as Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball continue to try to sort out the rules that will govern the move. The effort had come into some notable difficulties, though Ohtani’s decision to hire a MLB Player’s Association-certified agent was expected to . And it seems the two leagues, at least, have reached agreement on a framework that could help facilitate Ohtani’s move — so long as his representatives, the MLBPA, and the Fighters are all on board.

At a minimum, today’s news seemingly formalizes the Fighters’ commitment to allowing Ohtani to depart. “Everyone in our ballclub accepts his thoughts,” said Fighters skipper Hideki Kuriyama. That also figures to ratchet up the expectations and the pressures on all other interested parties, helping to maintain momentum toward a finalization of talks — which will only represent the beginning of what could be a fascinating process.

[Related: Scouting Shohei Ohtani]

None of the talks will address Ohtani’s own earning capacity, which will be quite slight — at least on his way into the league. That’s the major reason that he promises to be the most widely pursued player ever to hit the open market. With only a few clubs even able to offer him more than $1MM in a bonus, the decision will surely come down to other factors, the precise nature of which — hitting opportunities? geography? comfort? promotional opportunities? promises of a future extension? — remain to be learned.

*Astute readers will note that MLBTR has now adopted a new spelling. Previously, for a variety of reasons, we utilized the anglicization “Otani.” We have now confirmed, however, that the spelling “Ohtani” is the formal spelling likely to be utilized in his potential transition to the majors.

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