Diamondbacks, Mariners Interested In Tanner Scott
The Diamondbacks and Mariners are among the teams “thought to be vying for” Marlins closer Tanner Scott, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. At least a dozen clubs have reportedly shown some level of interest in Scott’s services, with the D’Backs and M’s now joining the Orioles, Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, and Royals as publicly known suitors.
Scott threw another scoreless inning in Miami’s 6-2 win over the Brewers last night, extending his scoreless innings streak to 17 2/3 frames. For the season as a whole, Scott has a superb 1.18 ERA over 45 2/3 innings, with a 28.7% strikeout rate and similarly excellent numbers almost across the board — with the glaring exception of his 14.8% walk rate, which sits just a few decimal points away from being the very worst in baseball.
While these control problems make Scott less than an automatic lock in the ninth inning, this is his second consecutive season of tremendous results as the Marlins’ closer. Since Miami is in seller mode and Scott is a free agent after the season, the left-hander is one of the most obvious players to be moved by the July 30 trade deadline, and several contenders are naturally reaching out to the Marlins about Scott’s services.
Arizona, in fact, already completed a deal with Miami about another southpaw reliever just two days ago, picking up A.J. Puk for two prospects. Heyman’s report doesn’t specify the timing of the Diamondbacks’ inquiries about Scott, so it does seem possible that the D’Backs might’ve pivoted to Puk as a backup plan if the Marlins’ asking price for Scott was too high. On the flip side, an argument can easily be made that Arizona’s shaky bullpen needs more reinforcements than just Puk, so it is easy to imagine that trade as perhaps laying some groundwork for future talks, once the Marlins explore what other clubs are willing to give up for Scott.
Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen told reporters (including Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports) that the Snakes could add more relievers, and the team was continuing to focus on acquiring pitching before turning to acquire any position players. “We’re still gonna stay engaged in every market, you never know when an opportunity is gonna come up,” Hazen said.
The Mariners are another team who has already been very active in advance of July 30, as Seattle has acquired both Randy Arozarena and Yimi Garcia in respective trades with the Rays and Blue Jays. Like with the D’Backs and the Puk trade, Seattle’s acquisition of Garcia probably doesn’t close the door on the possibility that the M’s might also aim to land Scott, though the Mariners have a far more glaring need for offense than pitching. Depending on how much prospect depth or financial flexibility the M’s have, Seattle could opt to focus its upcoming moves towards adding more bats, rather than bring Scott into what is already a pretty solid bullpen.
Royals Have Shown Interest In Tanner Scott
Tanner Scott is almost certain to be traded within the next four days. He and Carlos Estévez are the top two rental relievers on the market. The Marlins are willing to listen on anyone on the roster and already traded one key bullpen piece last night.
Scott has been a known target for the likes of the Yankees, Dodgers, Orioles and Phillies dating back to the middle of June. Interest in the hard-throwing southpaw surely extends beyond that group of four. Indeed, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote on Thursday night that the Royals are also looking into Scott.
Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo has spoken a few times about wanting to add power to the back of the bullpen. The Royals put that into action a couple weeks ago, landing Hunter Harvey from the Nationals just before the draft. They’re evidently still engaged in the relief market. Harvey had pitched in a setup capacity in Washington and looks to be sticking in that role with his new team.
James McArthur has held the ninth inning. It hasn’t always been smooth, as he has blown five of 22 save chances (including his most recent opportunity in Wednesday’s loss to the Diamondbacks). The 27-year-old righty has allowed nearly five earned runs per nine across 40 1/3 innings. He’s getting ground-balls at an excellent 53.8% clip and has plus control, but his 18.5% strikeout rate is well below average. McArthur doesn’t get nearly as many strikeouts as the typical closer, so the Royals could look to push him into the middle innings.
Scott is much more of a traditional closer. He pairs a 97 MPH heater with an upper-80s slider that misses plenty of bats. Scott has fanned more than 29% of opponents over 45 2/3 frames this season. He punched out more than a third of batters faced last year. He’s prone to bouts of wildness but has such high-octane stuff that he has been a dominant presence at the back of the Miami bullpen. After turning in a 2.31 ERA across 78 innings a year ago, he’s allowing 1.18 earned runs per nine this season.
The 30-year-old southpaw is playing on a $5.7MM salary in his final year of arbitration. There’s roughly $2MM in commitments for the stretch run. Scott could be looking at a three- or four-year deal next winter, so there’s very little chance he’ll stay in Miami past the deadline.
Latest On Marlins’ Bullpen Trade Candidates
The Marlins should trade a handful of veteran players over the next three weeks. While center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. might be the team’s most interesting candidate, the Fish are also a lock to move at least one reliever.
Closer Tanner Scott, who is on his way to his first All-Star Game next week, has looked likely to move essentially since the Marlins started their season on a nine-game losing streak. The Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies and Orioles were all linked to the hard-throwing lefty last month. Scott is a viable target for any team with postseason aspirations, though, and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald writes that roughly a dozen clubs have expressed interest.
Scott got off to a rather shaky start to the season. After walking seven of the 34 hitters he faced during Spring Training, he handed out 13 free passes in 12 2/3 innings through the end of April. While Scott worked around the walks to turn in a 2.84 ERA in the season’s first month, he’d likely have been in for regression if he didn’t dial in his command.
To his credit, Scott has taken a step forward in that regard. He has walked 10 of 93 opponents (10.8%) going back to May 1. It’s still not pristine control, but it’s significantly better than the 21.3% walk percentage he’d posted through the season’s first few weeks. Strike-throwing is Scott’s only real question mark. He has some of the best raw stuff in the sport, pairing a 97 MPH heater with a wipeout slider. Opponents have only managed 18 hits over 38 innings. They’re hitting .142/.273/.205 across 154 plate appearances.
While this is the first year in which Scott is headed to the Midsummer Classic, he was arguably even better in 2023. Scott pitched to a 2.31 ERA with a 33.9% strikeout rate and a career-best 7.8% walk percentage over 78 innings last year. Over two and a half seasons in South Florida, he owns a 2.82 earned run average while striking out 31.5% of opposing hitters. He has picked up 45 saves and finished 89 games while working as Miami’s closer for the majority of that stretch.
There’s little reason for the Marlins to hang onto Scott past the deadline. He’s headed to free agency for the first time in his career a few months from now. He’ll be entering his age-30 campaign and should have a case for a three- or four-year deal. A rebuilding Miami team isn’t likely to bring him back. Scott is playing this season on a $5.7MM arbitration salary, a little over $2.5MM of which is still owed.
As the lone rental in the bullpen, Scott should be the top priority for president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and his staff. Yet the front office is probably open to discussing their more controllable relievers as well. Mish writes that other teams have shown particular interest in left-hander Andrew Nardi, whom the Marlins control for another four seasons. Mish also lists right-handers Calvin Faucher and Declan Cronin as potential trade candidates, though it’s not clear how strong interest is in those cases.
Nardi is probably the most appealing of that group. His pedestrian 4.72 ERA belies excellent strikeout and walk numbers. The 25-year-old southpaw has fanned 29% of batters faced against a 7.6% walk rate. He’s inducing swinging strikes at a lofty 14.4% clip. Nardi has been plagued by a .337 average on balls in play this season but posted a 2.67 ERA across 57 1/3 frames last year. There should be significant interest, although Mish suggests the Marlins may wind up holding onto Nardi to plug him into the ninth inning next year.
Faucher and Cronin were low-cost offseason acquisitions. The former came over from the Rays alongside Vidal Bruján in one of Bendix’s first trades. Faucher has a 3.55 ERA while striking out nearly a quarter of opponents through 33 innings. Cronin, claimed off waivers from the Astros in February, has a 3.35 ERA with solid peripherals over 43 frames. The 26-year-old righty has average strikeout and walk numbers while running a massive 55.7% ground-ball percentage.
Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Orioles Among Teams Interested In Tanner Scott
Marlins closer Tanner Scott has already been drawing trade interest for several weeks, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post lists the Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies and Orioles as just some of the many teams showing interest in the hard-throwing lefty. Will Sammon and Katie Woo of The Athletic suggested this morning that Scott could be the next notable name to be moved — although that doesn’t necessarily indicate a trade of Scott is nearing the finish line. But the Marlins already showed their willingness to act early on the trade market when they moved Luis Arraez just five weeks into the season, and power bullpen arms are among the most sought-after commodities on the trade market every year.
That said, Scott alone isn’t likely to fetch the Marlins a sizable haul on his own. He clearly has trade value and should net some minor league talent, but the 29-year-old southpaw is in his final season of club control and will reach free agency at season’s end. The Marlins were willing to pay down nearly all of Arraez’s contract in their trade with the Padres, and doing so on Scott’s $5.7MM salary could help to enhance his appeal, but there are concerns even beyond the southpaw’s dwindling club control.
Command has always been an issue for the hard-throwing Scott, and 2024 is no exception. Quite the opposite, in fact. This year’s 16.8% walk rate is the highest of Scott’s career (excepting a 1 2/3-inning debut back in 2017). As noted here back in late May, he’s been slowly paring that number back since issuing an alarming swath of walks early in the season, but Scott has still walked 12% of his hitters dating back to May 1.
That’s not as troubling as a nearly 17% mark, but it’s still three percentage points higher than the average reliever — and the gap between that mark and last year’s career-best 7.8% mark is even wider. Scott has also seen his swinging-strike rate drop from a mammoth 17.4% in 2023 to 13.5% this year, while his opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate has fallen from 36.1% to 28.8% — a possible indicator that he’s missing by a much larger margin when he’s failing to find the strike zone.
To Scott’s credit, he’s been on an exceptional run of late. He surrendered a walk-off home run to Mets designated hitter J.D. Martinez yesterday, but those two runs were the first he’d allowed since April 30. Dating back to May 1, Scott has a minuscule 1.17 earned run average and huge 32.8% strikeout rate in 15 1/3 innings. Overall, the lefty touts a 1.93 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate and 52.5% grounder rate in 28 innings this year (in addition to that bloated 16.8% walk rate). He’s also averaging 96.9 mph on his heater.
Scott’s trade value would surely have been higher in the offseason, when he had a full year of club control and was fresh off a 33.9% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate in a career-high 78 innings. But the Marlins made the playoffs last year, and even after turning over their front office and largely idling throughout the winter, presumably wanted to see if the team could play its way back into postseason contention. A catastrophic 1-11 start to the season emphatically answered that question.
The Marlins could potentially package Scott with another trade candidate, such as coveted starter Jesus Luzardo, and look to extract a huge package by combining two sought-after players in a single trade. They could also hope that by moving Scott early, they can catch lightning in a bottle in the same manner that the Royals did last summer by moving Aroldis Chapman in late June — a trade that netted them current No. 1 starter Cole Ragans. (To be clear, Ragans was seen as a buy-low candidate at the time, and the Royals deserve credit for completely turning the former first-round pick’s career around.) Hitting that kind of jackpot almost certainly won’t happen, but that trade is illustrative of the fact that Miami could potentially get some MLB-ready help in return for Scott — provided the player in question is viewed as something of a project.
With regard to the teams linked to Scott, any of the bunch is a sensible target. The Yankees load up on bullpen arms every deadline they’re in contention, and they’ve regularly shown an affinity for ground-ball pitchers and power lefties. Scott checks both boxes. The Orioles know Scott better than any team in the game, having originally drafted and developed him — only to trade him to Miami in a deal they’d like to take back (Kevin Guerrero and Antonio Velez went to Baltimore in the deal). Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is always intrigued by high-end velocity and doesn’t need much help in the rotation right now, making a deeper bullpen a logical focus. The Dodgers have several notable relievers on the injured list at the moment (Brusdar Graterol, Joe Kelly, Ryan Brasier) and lack this type of flamethrowing left-handed presence in their current bullpen.
There’s some overlap between the clubs eyeing Scott and those reportedly eyeing White Sox closer Michael Kopech, which is only natural. Playoff hopefuls always look to beef up the relief corps around the trade deadline, and with so few sellers on the market at the moment, the few teams that are willing to deal should see increased demand.
Teams Inquiring On Marlins’ Tanner Scott
The Marlins’ awful start to the season and uncommonly early trade of star infielder Luis Arraez served as clear indicators of the direction they’ll take as this summer’s trade deadline approaches, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports this morning that teams have already been inquiring on closer Tanner Scott.
Given the state of the Marlins, it shouldn’t come as a surprise if and when virtually any player on the roster is discussed as a potential trade candidate. Nevertheless, it’s somewhat notable that clubs have already been gauging the asking price on Scott. That’s especially true since the left-hander stands as the Marlins’ most logical and likeliest trade candidate. He’s a free agent at season’s end and earning a notable (by Miami’s standards) $5.7MM salary. It’d be a shock if the Marlins didn’t trade him at some point in the next two months.
Scott was one of the best relievers in all of baseball in 2023, pitching to a 2.31 ERA with a huge 33.9% strikeout rate. The now-29-year-old southpaw had battled alarming command troubles throughout his career but in ’23 looked to have put them in the rearview mirror. Scott walked hitters at a lower-than-average 7.8% clip — the first season of his career with a walk rate under 11.6%. Improved command, paired with a blazing heater (96.9 mph average) and wipeout slider made Scott virtually automatic. He converted 90% of the time in a save situation, picking up a dozen saves and 24 holds with only four blown saves.
This season has been more of a mixed bag. Scott’s 1.57 ERA is pristine, but his longstanding command problems have returned. He’s walked 17.8% of his opponents this year, making that microscopic ERA something of a mirage. That said, much of Scott’s trouble in that area occurred early in the season. The lefty walked nine hitters through his first 5 2/3 innings but has walked only nine men since that time — in a span of 17 1/3 frames. Things have been even better of late; Scott has just one walk in his past six innings. The southpaw’s strikeout rate is still down this season, sitting at a roughly average 22.8%, but he’s inducing grounders at a hefty 54.5% clip and his Scott’s fastball remains as potent as ever.
Dating back to Scott’s 2020 breakout with the Orioles, he’s pitched 238 1/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball. His 13% walk rate in that time is problematic, but last year’s gains and the recent improvement after some early-season struggles suggest that a lower rate could reasonably be expected. Scott has also fanned 30% of his opponents dating back to the ’20 season, while keeping more than half the batted balls against him on the ground. Even in the modern era of power arms, left-handers with this type of velocity aren’t common. Only four southpaw relievers in baseball have averaged better than Scott’s 96.8 mph on his heater dating back to 2020 (Gregory Soto, Jose Alvarado, Aroldis Chapman, Genesis Cabrera).
As of this writing, the Marlins still owe Scott $3.7MM of this season’s salary. That’s an affordable sum for most clubs throughout the game, even those that have luxury-tax concerns. However, Miami showed in the aforementioned Arraez trade that the club would pay down additional salary in order to extract what the front office believes to be a stronger return. If the Fish are willing to cover the bill on some or all of the money yet owed to Scott, that would only figure to strengthen whatever prospect package they ultimately acquire.
Barring a major injury, a trade of Scott seems all but inevitable. Fellow impending free agents Josh Bell and Tim Anderson would be clear trade candidates themselves if either were performing up to career levels, but Bell has been a roughly league-average bat this season while Anderson’s production has been even worse than his disastrous 2023 showing in Chicago.
Beyond Miami’s impending free agents, just about any player who’s already into or approaching his arbitration years seems like a candidate to move. Lefty Jesus Luzardo is one of the most obvious trade candidates in all of baseball, and teams will surely inquire on fellow starters Trevor Rogers (controlled through 2026) and Braxton Garrett (controlled through 2027 but Super Two eligible this offseason). Outfielders Jazz Chisholm Jr., Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez are also potential trade candidates, though only Chisholm is in the midst of a particularly strong season at the plate. Both Chisholm and Luzardo are controlled two more seasons beyond the current year. Chisholm is earning $2.625MM. Luzardo is earning $5.5MM.
Who Could The Marlins Trade This Summer?
A team can’t cement a playoff spot in April, but they can certainly play their way out of the mix. Such is the case with the Marlins. Miami blew a 7-0 lead against the Nationals yesterday to fall to an MLB-worst 6-23 start. Whatever slim hope they had of competing for a playoff spot entering the season is gone. They’re going to be deadline sellers. It’s just a matter of when they start moving players and who will go.
New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix figures to be broadly open to dealing anyone beyond Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcantara, both of whom are rehabbing Tommy John surgeries anyhow. Much of the roster was assembled before he was hired last November, so he probably doesn’t have a ton of attachment to this group.
Bendix also joined Miami after a long stint with the Rays, a front office that was never afraid to move established players as they navigated payroll limitations. Tampa Bay occasionally made key deals at atypical times on the schedule, including trading Austin Meadows just before Opening Day in 2022 and swapping Willy Adames for Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen the previous May.
The Fish are more likely to deal some players than others, of course, so let’s run through a few of the top possibilities:
Rogers was an All-Star and the NL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021. He was ineffective in 2022 and limited to four starts last season by injury. The 6’5″ southpaw is one of the rare Miami pitchers who hasn’t been impacted by health concerns early this year. Rogers isn’t back to his early-career peak, but he has looked the part of a capable mid-rotation arm through five starts. He owns a 4.10 ERA in 26 1/3 innings.
The former first-rounder’s velocity is sitting around 92 MPH — down from the 94-95 he was pumping as a rookie — and his strikeout rate sits at a personal-low 20.6%. He’s getting ground-balls at a near-52% clip, though, and he’s done a solid job throwing strikes. Even if Rogers might not be the top-end arm he seemed three years ago, he’s an affordable mid-rotation starter who is under arbitration control for two seasons beyond this one. He’s making just $1.53MM this year, as the injuries prevented him from building much of a résumé going into his arb window.
Entering the season, Luzardo was the left-hander more teams were probably monitoring. He could certainly still be a coveted deadline target, but he’ll need to rebound from a rough couple weeks. Luzardo has been rocked for a 6.58 ERA with elevated walk and home run rates through his first 26 innings. He went on the 15-day injured list late last week with elbow tightness. It’s still not clear how serious that is.
If Luzardo returns to health and looks more like his 2023 self, he’d be one of the top upside plays on the market. He was an upper mid-rotation starter last season, turning in 178 2/3 innings of 3.58 ERA ball. Luzardo’s fastball velocity was sitting in its customary 97 MPH range before he went on the IL and he continued to miss plenty of bats. He and the Fish agreed to a $5.5MM salary to avoid arbitration last winter. Like Rogers, he’s under team control for two more years.
Garrett, 26, was a quietly effective rotation piece a year ago. The control artist turned in his second straight sub-4.00 ERA showing over 159 2/3 frames. He fanned an above-average 23.7% of opponents and kept the ball on the ground nearly half the time batters made contact.
The former #7 overall pick hasn’t pitched in the majors in 2024. He opened the year on the IL with a shoulder impingement. He had a brief setback when he experienced dead arm after a throwing session, but it’s not believed to be serious. He threw three innings in a rehab start last Friday. Garrett is making around the league minimum and will be go through arbitration four times after this season. He doesn’t have eye-popping velocity, but he misses bats with his offspeed stuff and has a career 3.86 ERA with peripherals to match. The Fish should get plenty of calls on him in July if he’s healthy.
Cabrera rounds out the quartet of potentially desirable rotation pieces. He may be the hardest of the group to evaluate. The former top prospect has huge stuff. His fastball sits in the high-90s. Cabrera can miss bats and generate plenty of grounders with all three of his secondary pitches (changeup, curveball, slider). At 26, it’s still not out of the question that he blossoms into a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Yet the Dominican-born righty has never thrown 100 innings in a major league season (although he fell one out shy of that arbitrary cutoff last year). That’s partially because he has a few arm-related injured list stints, including a two-week stay to open this season resulting from a shoulder impingement. He’s also nearly as wild a starter as there is in MLB. Cabrera walked 15.2% of batters faced last year and has issued free passes at a near-14% clip in his big league career.
The Marlins won’t feel obligated to move Cabrera for whatever they can get. He’s under control for four years after this, though he’ll qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player next winter. The Fish considered trade possibilities over the offseason, so he’s unlikely to be off the table, but a team will need to meet a lofty asking price.
Of Miami’s hitters, Arraez is the biggest name. A defending two-time batting champ, he’s probably the best pure contact hitter in the sport. His .305 average through his first 129 plate appearances would be the second-lowest of his career. Arraez is going to reach base at a high clip, but he offers minimal power — career-high 10 homers, zero in 2024 — and plays a well below-average second base.
Arraez will still draw interest, but his trade value isn’t as high as one might assume based solely on the batting average. In addition to his defensive limitations, his control window is shrinking. Arraez is playing this season on a $10.6MM salary and will go through the arbitration process once more before getting to free agency. He’d likely earn something in the $13-15MM range next season, which could motivate the Marlins to deal him this summer.
Chisholm hasn’t quite developed into the franchise player that he seemed he might become early in his career. He has been a solid regular with flashes beyond that, though. The switch-hitter connected on 19 homers and stole 22 bases in just 97 games last season, albeit with a modest .304 on-base percentage. He has dramatically increased his walk rate in the early going this year, running a .245/.342/.382 slash through his first 117 plate appearances.
Injuries have been a recurring problem. Chisholm missed a good portion of 2022 to a back issue. He lost chunks of the ’23 campaign with toe and oblique woes. If he stays healthy through this season’s first half, Chisholm could be one of the more intriguing trade candidates of deadline season. He has a tantalizing power/speed combination and can play center field, albeit with differing reviews from public metrics on his glove. Chisholm is making $2.65MM this year and has two more seasons of arbitration control.
Lefty Relief Trio
Each of Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk and Andrew Nardi could be attractive left-handed relief options. They’ve all been hit hard in the early going but have high-octane stuff and performed well last season. The Marlins unsuccessfully auditioned Puk in the rotation but will move him back to relief once he recovers from shoulder fatigue.
Nardi is the least well-known of the group, but he’s controllable for four-plus seasons and won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2026. He has a career strikeout rate north of 30% in 83 2/3 innings. Scott is an impending free agent who has worked the ninth inning for Miami over the last couple seasons. He hasn’t been able to find the strike zone this year, a disappointing start after he issued walks at a career-low 7.8% clip in 2023. Scott is playing this season on a $5.7MM salary. Puk is making $1.8MM and will go through arbitration twice more.
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A few others could draw attention, although they’re probably less likely than the players listed above to move. Many teams would love to land Max Meyer, but it’d take a Godfather offer for the Marlins to move him.
Ryan Weathers leads the team in innings thus far. He’s a former top 10 pick who has pushed his average fastball to 96 MPH and is getting plenty of whiffs on his breaking ball. It’s conceivable teams could have interest, but Weathers has a career 5.67 ERA with subpar strikeout and walk numbers. Anthony Bender has returned from Tommy John surgery to post excellent strikeout and walk rates through his first 11 innings. His ERA is atrocious because of an elevated average on balls in play, but that should normalize well before the deadline.
The Marlins aren’t likely to find a taker for any portion of the Avisaíl García contract. That’d also be the case for Josh Bell unless he has a dramatic turnaround at the plate. He’s hitting .176/.270/.287 and playing on a $16.5MM salary. Neither Nick Fortes nor Christian Bethancourt has contributed anything offensively.
The Fish took a $5MM rebound flier on Tim Anderson over the offseason. That was likely with an eye towards a midseason trade, but he’s out to a .223/.270/.255 start after hitting .245/.286/.296 in his final year with the White Sox. He’ll need to perform significantly better to draw any kind of interest. Bryan De La Cruz, Jesús Sánchez and Jake Burger are low-OBP corner bats. They’d each have modest value if the Marlins wanted to deal them.
A.J. Puk Likely To Open Season In Marlins’ Rotation
The Marlins revealed back in December that they planned to stretch lefty A.J. Puk out and plug him back into a starting role after he’s spent his entire career to date in the bullpen. Puk, a former standout starter at the University of Florida and a starter for most of his minor league tenure, is now “a frontrunner” to claim the fourth spot in Miami’s rotation, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.
Puk will turn 29 in April. He’s never made a big league start but has started 42 games in the minors — most coming early in his tenure. The former No. 6 overall draft pick (2016) moved to the bullpen in 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery the year prior. Puk took well to that relief role, debuting in the majors with 11 1/3 innings late in 2019. He held opponents to four runs on ten hits and five walks with 13 strikeouts — good for a 3.18 ERA. He looked to have locked up a spot on the 2020 roster, but Puk experienced shoulder pain the following spring and wound up missing the season due to an eventual debridement surgery.
The 2021 season was a rough one for Puk, though that’s not entirely surprising for a pitcher who’d undergone Tommy John surgery and shoulder surgery within 24 months of each other. He split the year between Triple-A and the big leagues, posting an ERA north of 6.00 in both settings. The 2022 campaign finally brought a breakout for the talented but snakebitten southpaw; he pitched 66 1/3 innings out of the Oakland bullpen and worked to a 3.12 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 43.4% ground-ball rate.
The A’s, by then in the midst of a complete rebuild, traded Puk to the Marlins in exchange for outfielder JJ Bleday — another former top-10 overall pick (No. 4) who’d not yet lived up to the expectations associated with that lofty draft status. It worked out nicely for the Fish. In 56 2/3 frames, Puk logged a 3.97 ERA with far more encouraging secondary marks: 32.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate, 15.1% swinging-strike rate, 2.66 SIERA. Puk wound up leading the Marlins with 15 saves.
Clearly encouraged by the per-inning strength of those results, the Marlins will now try to maximize Puk’s workload by moving him into a starting role. Much has been made of the Marlins’ enviable pitching depth over the years, but Puk’s move to the rotation is in part due to the fact that Miami’s stash of promising young arms is no longer as deep as it once was.
Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire 2024 season. Pablo Lopez was traded to the Twins in exchange for Luis Arraez. Braxton Garrett is behind schedule in camp due to a shoulder issue and is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. Top prospects Sixto Sanchez and Max Meyer have been slowed by injuries. Sanchez, in particular, hasn’t pitched since 2020. Another touted arm, Jake Eder, was traded to the White Sox for Jake Burger. Southpaw Trevor Rogers has struggled through injuries and poor results since his second-place finish in the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year voting.
If Puk is able to successfully move back into a starting role, it’d obviously be a boon for the Fish. It’s a move that could reap long-term benefits, too, as Puk is controllable through the 2026 season. The Marlins will presumably be careful with his workload after the lefty pitched just 59 1/3 innings last year between the majors and a brief minor league rehab assignment following a nerve issue in his elbow. But if he can progress to pitching 100-plus innings this year, it’s easier to envision any restrictions being removed for the 2025 campaign.
There’s some risk to the move, of course. Puk has a lengthy injury history and is no guarantee to hold up with a full rotation workload. By moving him to the starting staff, Miami is also notably weakening its relief corps. The Puk transition bodes well for Tanner Scott, who’ll likely spend his entire platform season before free agency as the Marlins’ closer. But beyond Scott, the Fish will rely on a series of arms with short track records and/or notable injury histories. Andrew Nardi, Anthony Bender, JT Chargois and George Soriano all have had big league success but have all yet to establish themselves as consistent, year-to-year performers.
Assuming the Marlins indeed stick with this plan, Puk will slot into the rotation behind Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez and Edward Cabrera. The aforementioned Rogers and fellow lefty Ryan Weathers are the leading candidates for the fifth spot, Jackson notes, with Rogers a likelier fit than Weathers. Sanchez, once viewed as a rotation building block, is out of minor league options but figures to head to the bullpen if he’s healthy enough to make the roster. Whoever grabs the fifth spot will essentially be a placeholder for Garrett anyhow. That said, given workload concerns for Puk and the general frequency with which pitchers get injured, it’s likely that all of Puk, Rogers, Garrett and Weathers will wind up starting a fair share of games in South Florida this season.
Tanner Scott Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Marlins
Left-hander Tanner Scott won his arbitration hearing with the Marlins, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (X link). The Marlins were looking to pay Scott $5.15MM in 2023, but the reliever will instead earn his desired figure of $5.7MM.
The salary checks in just slightly under the $5.8MM that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected for Scott, but it’s still a very nice raise for the southpaw in his final year of arbitration eligibility. Scott avoided arbitration in his first two winters of eligibility, and his $5.7MM salary is more than double the $2.825MM he earned in 2023.
The payday comes in the wake of the best season of Scott’s seven-year MLB career. The lefty posted a 2.31 ERA over 78 innings for Miami, and only four pitchers topped Scott’s total of 74 appearances. Beyond the durability, Scott’s Statcast page is a veritable sea of red, as he ranked in at least the 90th percentile of almost every major statistical category. The eye-popping numbers included a 33.9% strikeout rate, 26.3% hard-hit ball rate, and 35.3% chase rate that all ranked among the league’s elite.
Scott’s 7.8% walk rate was modest in comparison, sitting at “only” the 60th percentile of all pitchers. Yet this stat was perhaps the key element to Scott’s success, given how control problems have plagued his career — Scott had a career 14.2% walk rate prior to his greatly improved 7.8BB% last season. Pundits and scouts have long felt that Scott had elite potential if he could ever harness his stuff, and 2023 is a very promising sign that Scott has now turned the corner at age 29.
Scott moved into the closer’s job down the stretch for Miami and looks to assume that same role heading into the coming season. Since he is set to hit free agency next winter, Scott stands out as a potential trade chip if the Marlins aren’t in contention by the deadline. There was even some speculative trade buzz around Scott this winter given the Marlins’ surplus of left-handed relievers, though the Fish already moved another southpaw last week when Steven Okert was dealt to the Twins for Nick Gordon.
Scott’s case was the final pending arbitration hearing of the 2023-24 offseason, and the players emerged with a winning record from this year’s slate of hearings. Players won nine of the 15 cases that went to arbitration.
Requested Salary Figures For 22 Players Who Didn’t Reach Agreements By Arbitration-Filing Deadline
Today was the deadline for teams and players eligible for arbitration to exchange salary figures for the 2024 season ahead of possible arbitration hearings. And, as usual, the vast majority of eligible players worked out deals for 2024 (and, in some cases, beyond) before the deadline this afternoon. While these agreements are all listed in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker, unfinished business remains around the league. 22 players have not yet settled on a salary for the 2024 and are therefore at risk of having their salaries determined by an arbiter. That number is down considerably from last season, when 33 players exchanged figures. Of note, this list does not include Brewers right-hander Devin Williams. While the sides exchanged figures earlier this evening, they managed to avoid arbitration after the deadline had passed.
This year, arbitration hearings will begin on January 29th and run through February 16th, two days after pitchers and catchers are due to report for Spring Training. While there’s nothing stopping teams and players from settling to avoid arbitration between now and their hearing, the majority of clubs employ a “file and trial” approach to arbitration hearings, stopping negotiations prior to the formal exchange of figures in order to put additional pressure on players to agree to a deal early. While this approach generally puts a moratorium on discussion of one-year deals, teams are typically still willing to discuss multi-year pacts beyond today’s deadline.
Below are the 22 players who have yet to reach an agreement regarding their 2024 salaries, as well as the players’ requested salaries and the counteroffers issued by clubs. The league tends to pay close attention to arbitration salaries because outliers can serve as precedent going forward, raising the bar both for individual players and players as a whole in the future. That reality incentivizes teams to strictly stick to a “file and trial” approach in arbitration and risk a tense hearing between club and player rather than bridge even fairly minimal gaps between club and player salary figures.
[RELATED: Arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz]
14 of the league’s 30 clubs have at least one case that has yet to be settled. The Orioles have the most cases that have yet to be settled, with five players on track for a hearing against the club. That being said, it’s worth noting that Baltimore has a massive, 17-player class of arbitration-eligible players, so it’s hardly a surprise that they wound up exchanging figures with an elevated number of players. Toronto first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. submitted the highest salary figure among all players headed for a hearing at $19.9MM, while the Rangers and outfielder Adolis Garcia narrowly top Guerrero and the Blue Jays for the largest gap between figures, with $1.9MM separating Garcia’s request of $6.9MM from the Rangers’ $5MM counteroffer.
The total list, which will be updated as settlements are reached and the results of hearings are made available…
- Taylor Ward: $4.8MM in desired salary….Angels offered $4.3MM (via MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand)
- Jose Suarez: $1.35MM….Angels $925K (via Feinsand)
- Mauricio Dubon: $3.5MM….Astros $3MM (via Feinsand)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: $19.9MM….Blue Jays $18.05MM (via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet)
- Tommy Edman: $6.95MM….Cardinals $6.5MM (via Feinsand)
- J.D. Davis: $6.9MM….Giants $6.55MM (via Feinsand)
- Luis Arraez: $12MM….Marlins $10.6MM (via Feinsand)
- Tanner Scott: $5.7MM….Marlins $5.15MM (via Feinsand)
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: $2.9MM….Marlins $2.625MM (via Feinsand)
- Phil Bickford: $900K….Mets $815K (via Feinsand)
- Austin Hays: $6.3MM….Orioles $5.85MM (via Feinsand)
- Ryan O’Hearn: $3.8MM….Orioles $3.2MM (via Feinsand)
- Danny Coulombe: $2.4MM….Orioles $2.2MM (via Feinsand)
- Cionel Perez: $1.4MM….Orioles $1.1MM (via Feinsand)
- Jacob Webb: $1MM….Orioles $925K (via Feinsand)
- Alec Bohm: $4MM….Phillies $3.4MM (via Feinsand)
- Adolis Garcia: $6.9MM….Rangers $5MM (via Feinsand)
- Harold Ramirez: $4.3MM….Rays $3.8MM (via Feinsand)
- Jason Adam: $3.25MM….Rays $2.7MM (via Feinsand)
- Jonathan India: $4MM….Reds $3.2MM (via The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer)
- Casey Mize: $840K….Tigers $815K (via Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic)
- Nick Gordon: $1.25MM….Twins $900K (via Feinsand)
NL East Notes: Robertson, Albies, Nationals
When the Marlins shipped a pair of intriguing young prospects to New York in order to acquire veteran right-hander David Robertson from the Mets, it was a statement of intent to contend by Miami, as they acquired perhaps the top rental reliever available at this year’s trade deadline. It was Robertson’s second time being dealt at the deadline in as many years, as the 38-year-old veteran was swapped from the Cubs to the Phillies in exchange for pitching prospect Ben Brown 13 months ago. Sporting a 2.23 ERA in 40 1/3 innings of work at the time of that deal, Robertson went on to post similarly excellent numbers in Philadelphia with a 2.70 ERA in 22 regular season appearances down the stretch and just one run allowed in his eight postseason appearances as the Phillies headed to the World Series for the first time since 2009.
At the time of this year’s deal, Robertson was having an even better season, with a 2.05 ERA in 44 innings of work with a 27.9% strikeout rate. Unfortunately for the Marlins, he hasn’t been the shutdown closer they were expecting in ten appearances with the club. He’s posted a brutal 7.20 ERA and 6.17 FIP in ten innings since joining Miami, with just four saves in seven chances. Those brutal results have led the Marlins to remove their veteran deadline addition from the closer role entirely, according to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. Mish suggests Tanner Scott, who sports a 2.59 ERA and 2.12 FIP in 59 innings of work this season, could replace Robertson as the club’s closer moving forward.
The move reflects the dire situation Miami finds itself in after a difficult August; at the time of the Robertson deal, the club was 54-49 and firmly in the mix for one of the NL Wild Card spots. Since then, the Marlins have gone just 12-16, falling to 65-64 and three games back of the third Wild Card spot. While that’s hardly an insurmountable deficit with more than a month to go in the season, the club is facing playoff odds of just 19.4% at this point per Fangraphs, far worse than their 49.3% odds on the day of the Robertson deal.
More from the NL East…
- Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies has been on the 10-day injured list since earlier this month with a hamstring strain, but could already be nearing a return. Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution relayed an update regarding Albies this evening, indicating that Atlanta will “see just how well he feels” tomorrow after a successful workout this afternoon. When Albies is ready to go, it seems he’ll be activated from the injured list directly, as Toscano notes that manager Brian Snitker has previously indicated the infielder won’t require a rehab assignment before returning to action. Albies, who sports a 121 wRC+ in 510 trips to the plate this season, has been covered for by Nicky Lopez and Vaughn Grissom at the keystone while he’s been on the shelf.
- The Nationals announced this afternoon that the club had optioned outfielder Blake Rutherford to Triple-A. Rutherford, a 26-year-old journeyman and former first-round pick by the Yankees who made his MLB debut with Washington earlier this month, slashed just .182/.206/.182 in 34 trips to the plate with the Nationals prior to his demotion. Rutherford’s demotion sparked rumors regarding who would replace him on the active roster, with both Bobby Blanco and Mark Zuckerman of MASN indicating that the club could look to promote catching prospect Drew Millas. Millas, the club’s 23rd-best prospect per MLB Pipeline, is a defensive-first catcher who has impressed with the bat this season, batting .291/.390/.442 in 328 trips to the plate this season between the Double-A and Triple-A levels.