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Latest On Astros, LeMahieu, Correa

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12:43PM: In an update to his original story, Rosenthal writes that the Astros are “not engaged in any active conversations on Correa.”  The team has, however, been in touch with LeMahieu.

11:39AM: The Astros are “floating” Carlos Correa’s name in trade talks with other teams, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required).  This isn’t the first time that Correa has been mentioned as a possible trade candidate, though last year, then-general manager Jeff Luhnow shot down the possibility.

The root cause of Houston’s openness to a Correa trade remains the same — the team considers it “unlikely” that the shortstop will sign an extension before he hits free agency.  Correa is now only one season away from hitting the open market, as he is slated to be part of an elite group of shortstops headlining the 2021-22 free agent class.

Beyond Correa’s contract, naturally, the Astros face an entirely new set of issues that weren’t present when they thought about moving Correa last winter, ranging from the sign-stealing scandal that ousted Luhnow and then-manager A.J. Hinch, revenue losses caused by the pandemic, to Justin Verlander being lost to Tommy John surgery for the 2021 season.  Plus, the Astros also face the loss of two other notable position players, as George Springer and Michael Brantley are both free agents.

Moving Correa on top of losing both Springer and Brantley could almost make 2021 into something of a mini-rebuild type of season for Houston, though there hasn’t been any indication that the Astros are looking to take much of a step backwards.  For instance, the Astros have had talks with Brantley and (as a replacement for Springer in center field) Jackie Bradley Jr.

However, Rosenthal reports that the Astros aren’t likely to pursue any of Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, or DJ LeMahieu, as since those players rejected qualifying offers, Houston would have to give up draft picks in order to sign them.  This isn’t an appetizing thought for an organization that already lost multiple picks as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.  Re-signing their own free agent in Springer (who also turned down a QO) wouldn’t cost the Astros any picks, of course, though Houston might prefer to restock their draft coffers with the compensatory pick received if Springer signed elsewhere.

Trading Correa would also theoretically net a good return for the Astros, though a lot of factors will impact his market.  Teams might not be keen on paying a premium for just one year of Correa’s services, and there are several other options available to shortstop-needy teams in both free agency (Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons, Ha-Seong Kim) and in trades (Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez).

Correa is coming off a season that saw him hit only .264/.326/.383 over 221 plate appearances in the regular season, but he caught fire during Houston’s postseason run, with a whopping 1.221 OPS over 55 PA.  Correa is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility and is projected to earn $8.8MM under the “37 percent” calculation method of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Caleb Cotham “Clear Frontrunner” To Be Next Phillies Pitching Coach

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NOVEMBER 15: The Phillies are indeed hoping to finalize a deal with Cotham in the next week, hears Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

NOVEMBER 14: Reds’ assistant pitching coach and director of pitching Caleb Cotham is the leading candidate to take over as the next pitching coach of the Philadelphia Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Salisbury names Cotham as the “clear frontrunner.”

Cotham, 33, pitched for two seasons at the major-league level, making his debut for manager Joe Girardi and the New York Yankees in 2015. Girardi likely has significant sway in this hiring decision as the manager of the Phillies, especially since they continue to search for a new head of baseball ops. The Phillies, however, aren’t the only team that Cotham has spoken with this offseason.

Speculatively speaking, Cotham’s experience with Driveline Baseball could be a selling point for data-interested hurlers, as well as the organization on the whole. One such hurler happens to be the top starting pitcher on the free agent market. It’s easy to connect the dots between a potential Cotham hire and NL Cy Young Trevor Bauer – just as we do between Cotham and Girardi – but that’s two steps down the line. If a connection is all it takes to sign Bauer, after all, the Reds would still be in pole position. The Phillies have, however, shown a willingness to spend for starting pitching on the open market in recent years with the additions of Jake Arrieta and Zack Wheeler. Still, if Cotham does indeed turn out to be their hire, it will be on his own merit.

Poll: Which Qualifying Offer Free Agent Will Sign First?

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The deadline for accepting the qualifying offer has come and gone, with two players (the Mets’ Marcus Stroman and the Giants’ Kevin Gausman) opting to accept the one-year, $18.9MM deal from their most recent team.  That leaves four other players in this year’s QO class, all of whom rejected the one-year offer — Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, and DJ LeMahieu.

There was some debate over whether or not Stroman or Gausman would even receive a qualifying offer, so it perhaps isn’t surprising that the two hurlers each chose to accept rather than test the open market.  For the other four, however, there was no doubt that each would receive and reject the QO since more lucrative, longer-term offers surely await in free agency.  Bauer, Realmuto, Springer, and LeMahieu take up four of the top five places on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, with only Marcell Ozuna — who was ineligible for another qualifying offer after being issued one last winter — interceding in the #4 spot.

Now that the QO detail has been settled, the question is which of the quartet will be the first to land that lucrative, long-term contract?  (And, it should be noted that “long-term” may not necessarily be the case in regards to Bauer.)  All of the financial uncertainty of the 2020-21 offseason might not necessarily impact these top-tier free agents in terms of overall earning potential, though the ripple effects of other signings elsewhere in the market could impact when exactly these big four stars sign their next contract.

For instance, there is some thought around baseball that this will be another slow winter for offseason activity, as the strained payrolls throughout the sport will make teams even more wary about making big free agent investments.  A large group of new free agents is expected to flood the market by the December 2 non-tender deadline, so teams might wait until that date to make any sort of significant move so they can assess all of their options.  A team in need of catching, for example, could hold off on making an offer to Realmuto until they know whether or not the Yankees could actually non-tender Gary Sanchez.

But this poll isn’t asking who the last to sign will be, it’s who will be the first.  As mentioned, Bauer/Realmuto/Springer/LeMahieu could be shielded in many respects from the crunch that other free agents are likely to face, and could get a lot of early attention from teams looking to make their offseason as simple as possible.  In the case of the Yankees and LeMahieu, a relatively quick re-signing would allow New York to check off one big box, and then figure out how to address other needs with what resources remain (if the Yankees are indeed trying to get under the $210MM luxury tax threshold).

With so much up in the air about the 2021 season, there’s a case to be made that any of these free agents would prefer to get a new contract locked up soon, so they can fully focus on getting ready for whatever challenges 2021 may bring.  If we reach March and there’s still question as to whether or not the pandemic will allow Opening Day to proceed as scheduled, or if the 2021 season will still be 162 games or not, no player would want the added uncertainty of still not knowing where they’ll be playing whenever Opening Day does occur.

Cast your vote, which of the Qualifying Offer Four will be the first to land their new contract? (Poll link for app users)

Reds GM Nick Krall Discusses Offseason Plans

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Reds general manager Nick Krall spoke with reporters (including C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic and Mark Sheldon of MLB.com) this afternoon about the club’s winter plans. Unsurprisingly, the Cincinnati front office will be on the lookout for shortstop help in the coming months.

“We lost Freddy Galvis. Shortstop would be something you’d like to address,” Krall replied when asked about the roster’s biggest need. Galvis, who led the Reds with 31 starts at the position last season, is now a free agent. He’d figure to come cheap if Cincinnati wanted to bring him back, but it’s arguable the now-contending Reds should pursue an upgrade at the position regardless.

Krall noted the organization remains high on touted prospect José García, but the 22-year-old slumped to a brutal .194/.206/.194 line over his first 68 MLB plate appearances. Krall didn’t rule out the possibility of García competing for a big league job next spring, but further minor-league seasoning seems likely considering García looked overmatched after making the jump from High-A to the majors this past season.

The top of the free agent shortstop market includes Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons, as well as KBO star Ha-Seong Kim. Cincinnati also makes sense as a potential Francisco Lindor suitor. It’d be a bit surprising to see the Indians trade the face of their franchise to an in-state rival, but the teams did line up on the three-team Trevor Bauer deal last summer.

Speaking of Bauer, he’s now the only ace-caliber pitcher available in free agency. Krall said the Reds have had preliminary, “not substantial” contact with Bauer’s camp to this point. Surely, the Reds would love to keep the reigning NL Cy Young winner in the fold, but they’ll face plenty of competition for his services. Even if Bauer departs, a 2021 rotation led by Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle would be an enviable group.

One other candidate for the rotation is Michael Lorenzen. The 28-year-old, primarily a reliever in recent seasons, hopes to earn a rotation spot in spring training. That’s a possibility, Krall confirmed, but the rest of the Reds’ offseason moves will shape Lorenzen’s ultimate role. Cincinnati has a few high-end bullpen pieces beyond Lorenzen, but the GM noted the organization is looking to lengthen the relief corps, preferably by adding hurlers with minor-league option years remaining. Optionable players are more likely to be found in trade, on waivers, or via minor-league free agency than by shopping at the top of the free agent market. To that end, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Reds make a low-cost bullpen addition or two this winter.

Trevor Bauer Wins NL Cy Young Award

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Trevor Bauer of the Cincinnati Reds was awarded the Cy Young in the National League by the BBWAA tonight. Amazingly, Bauer becomes the first Cy Young award winner in Reds’ history.

Bauer made the most of his free agent season with a league-leading 1.73 ERA over 73 innings, including 2 complete game shutouts. Bauer showed up in the postseason for the Reds as well, going 7 2/3 innings allowing just 2 hits while striking out 12 and walking none. During the regular season, opponents hit just .159 against him, the best mark in the league.

That represents quite the platform for a freshly minted free agent. Teams will also have to consider Bauer’s frustrating 2019 campaign, though he was dealing with injuries for much of the year and his comeback left little to be desired. Bauer is one of the most entertaining, enigmatic, and opinionated personalities in the game, and now he’s heading into the open market as the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner.

As close as the race seemed leading up to the event, Bauer ran away with it, taking 27 first-place votes and 201 total points. Yu Darvish finished 2nd with 3 first-place votes and 123 total point, and Jacob deGrom finished 3rd with 89 points. 12 different pitchers received at least one vote for the award.

Mets President Sandy Alderson On Team Needs

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During Steve Cohen’s introductory press conference with the Mets, team president Sandy Alderson took questions from reporters and said a number of interesting things about the direction of the Mets.

The Mets finished in 4th place in three of the last four years, and they haven’t made the playoffs since 2016 when they lost a one-game playoff. The Mets made some win-now moves in recent years that raised expectations, but they’ve been unable to get over the hump. That said, Alderson likes the way the team has drafted, and he sees some pieces to build around, saying, “From an offensive standpoint, there are definitely some first-division championship pieces.” Speculatively speaking, masher Pete Alonso falls into this category, despite a down sophomore season in 2020. Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano, and Dominic Smith put up strong seasons in 2020 as well. Smith, in particular, will be interesting to follow, because if there isn’t a DH in 2021, he may be out of a starting job.

On the pitching said, Alderson said, “Jacob deGrom is by definition an ace. He’s the definition of of Cy Young, if you will.” deGrom has been the face of the Mets for the past four seasons or so, over which time he won consecutive Cy Young awards, and he’s up for a third in a row this year.

He needs help in the rotation, however, especially with Noah Syndergaard on the mend and Marcus Stroman a free agent. On WFAN later in the day, Alderson fanned some rumor flames by speaking positively about free agent Trevor Bauer: “I actually think Bauer would be a great personality in New York. The kind of guy that fans would endorse. We’re in the entertainment business,” per New York baseball columnist John Harper (via Twitter). While Bauer would certainly fill a need in the organization, Alderson doesn’t go so far as to say he is a person of interest.

But there’s no denying the Mets as a fourth place team. Thus, Alderson covered some of their needs moving into the offseason, saying, “…There are things that we don’t do well. we need to shore up some positions. Our pitching staff is thin. Our depth at Double-A and Triple-A is thin or thinner. The bullpen has been inconsistent. We have needs behind the plate.”

In terms of specific players, he mentioned Brad Hand as someone they would have been interested in claiming on waivers if the timing had been different, per Tim Britton of the Athletic (via Twitter). He noted that the one-year, $10MM deal for Hand might be an overpay, but that sometimes the acquisition is more important than the cost itself, which speaks to his philosophy of roster-building.

Alderson even took some “credit” for the team defense, which he spoke of as an area that needs improvement. During Anderson’s run as GM from 2010 to 2018, an emphasis was put on offense. Moving forward, however, Alderson recognizes the need to address the other side of the ball. Speculatively, that could mean being open to moving one of Smith, Nimmo, or Conforto to find a more defensive-minded centerfielder. They could also start their defensive revamp by focusing on that end with whomever they bring in behind the plate.

All in all, Alderson took a measured approach in discussing the Mets’ future, recognizing some of the failures of the team in recent years. Ultimately, he landed on the side of optimism, saying, “…There is a foundation there, and I think if we can add the right pieces this year – and Steve has indicated that we’ll have the opportunity to do that – we can be pretty good pretty quickly, and that’s my goal for 2021.”

Trevor Bauer Rejects Qualifying Offer

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In a move that will surprise no one, Trevor Bauer will reject the Reds’ qualifying offer, agent Rachel Luba announced on Twitter. There was never any doubt that Bauer, a Cy Young finalist in the National League, would turn down the one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer. By rejecting it, he’ll now be tied to draft pick compensation this winter, although that seems unlikely to stand in the way of him securing a considerably more lucrative contract.

Bauer, 30 in January, led the National League in ERA (1.73) and WHIP (0.79), and he paced all of Major League Baseball with two shutouts and a paltry 5.1 hits per nine innings pitched. The former No. 3 overall draft pick was every bit the ace that Cincinnati hoped he’d be when acquiring him prior to the 2019 trade deadline, largely putting his rough two-month showing with the 2019 Reds in the rearview mirror.

It was the second Cy Young-caliber season for Bauer in three years, as he also turned in 175 1/3 innings of 2.21 ERA ball with the 2018 Indians. Over the past three seasons combined, Bauer has worked 461 1/3 innings with a combined 3.18 ERA and 3.38 FIP in addition to averages of 11.2 strikeouts, 3.0 walks and 1.01 home runs per nine innings pitched.

Because Bauer rejected the qualifying offer, any club that signs him will now take a hit in next year’s draft. A team that paid the luxury tax (e.g. the Yankees) would surrender its second- and fifth-highest selections to sign Bauer. They’d also see their league-allotted international bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Clubs that receive revenue-sharing in a typical season and do not exceed the tax threshold are “only” required to sign their third-highest selection to sign a qualified free agent. Clubs that do not receive revenue sharing and stay under the luxury barrier are penalized by forfeiting their second-highest pick and seeing their international pool reduced by $500K.

As for the Reds, they’ll be a very interested onlooker with regard to Bauer’s contract. The right-hander made it known for years that he did not ever plan to sign a multi-year deal, instead maxing out his earnings on a perpetual series of one-year pacts. The shortened nature of the term would, in theory, allow for greater earning potential so long as Bauer remained healthy and pitched well; teams are willing to pay a higher annual rate in order to avoid long-term risk. Recently, however, both Bauer and Luba have indicated that he’ll consider long-term deals in free agency as well.

That’s of particular importance for the Reds, as they’d receive a compensatory pick after the first round of next year’s draft should Bauer sign elsewhere — but only if his total guarantee is greater than $50MM. If Bauer goes the one-year route, he’ll surely fall shy of that threshold, meaning the Reds would only be entitled to a pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the draft. Essentially, it’s a difference of roughly 45 spots in the draft order, as well as the considerably greater slot value that is associated with the higher of the two selections.

Six Players Extended Qualifying Offers

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Six players will be extended qualifying offers this winter, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). Those players are:

None of the players issued the QO comes as a particular surprise. Bauer, LeMahieu, Realmuto and Springer were all easy calls for their respective teams. Each of that group will certainly reject the offer. Stroman and Gausman might’ve been tougher calls but had been reported previously.

More notable are the series of players who were not issued a QO. Astros outfielder Michael Brantley will hit the market unencumbered, as he did when he became a free agent two years ago. Oakland didn’t issue a QO to either of Marcus Semien or Liam Hendriks, while the Phillies and Angels decided against an offer for Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons, respectively. The six players issued a qualifying offer is down from last offseason’s ten, which isn’t much of a surprise since this winter is expected to be particularly tough for players in the wake of teams’ pandemic-driven revenue losses.

The players issued the qualifying offer will now have ten days to weigh their options. Players who reject the offer and become free agents will cost their signing teams draft compensation (or the right to recoup draft compensation if they sign with their current team). Here is a full run-down of the qualifying offer rules this offseason.

Quick Hits: Bauer, Angels, Hill

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The Rays are changing it up tonight in an effort to even up the World Series with the Dodgers, per MLB.com’s Juan Toribio (via Twitter). Against the southpaw Julio Urías, the Rays have dropped Brandon Lowe to the 5-spot, while lefty killer Mike Brosseau gets the start at third base batting third. Hunter Renfroe gets the start in right field in place of Austin Meadows. The Rays tend to play match-ups against lefties, but don’t be surprised to see Ji-Man Choi or Meadows come in off the bench late in the game. While we wait for first pitch, let’s see what else is going on around the game…

  • Trevor Bauer had more fun playing baseball with the Reds this season than in any of his prior professional campaigns, per the Athletic’s C. Trent Rosencrans. That bodes well for a return to Cincinnati for the free agent hurler, though the financial component will still have to be figured out by new head baseball decision-maker Nick Krall. Projecting free agent contracts has never been a murkier business than this season following widespread revenue loss around baseball. Bauer figures to be a rare free agent not to have his market diminished all that much, not after a Cy Young worthy campaign.
  • The Angels will consider ex-Marlins executive Michael Hill to fill their General Manager vacancy, per MLB Network contributor Craig Mish (via Twitter). By all accounts, Hill’s departure from Miami stemmed from a salary disagreement, which would not be out of character for the cost conscious Marlins. Hill had been with the Marlins in one capacity or another since 2002. The Angels would represent a starkly different challenge for Hill, who has spent years managing slow-burn rebuilds in Miami. Whoever takes over baseball ops in Los Angeles will be pressured to get the team back to the playoffs as soon as possible, lest another year of Mike Trout’s prime pass by without postseason play.

MLBPA Announces 2020 Players Choice Award Winners

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The MLBPA announced their Players Choice Awards today, which were voted on by the players prior to the postseason. Freddie Freeman was the biggest winner, taking home both the NL Player of the Year honor, as well as the NL Outstanding Player Award, which correlates to the MVP. Jose Abreu of the White Sox took home the AL MVP equivalent award. Nelson Cruz was awarded the Marvin Miller Man of the Year Award in the American League, while Andrew Dawson won the inaugural Curt Flood Award, given to “a former player, living or deceased, who in the image of Flood demonstrated a selfless, longtime devotion to the Players Association and advancement of Players’ rights.”

Feel free to read their official press release here, and check out the other award winners as voted on by the players below:

AL Outstanding Pitcher: Shane Bieber

NL Outstanding Pitcher: Trevor Bauer

The Outstanding Pitcher award in each league – or the Cy Young equivalent – went to Trevor Bauer of the Reds and Shane Bieber of the Indians. Bieber was a shoo-in as the best pitcher in the American League, but Bauer faced some tough competition in the NL from Jacob deGrom and Yu Darvish.

AL Outstanding Rookie: Kyle Lewis

NL Outstanding Rookie: Jake Cronenworth

Lewis broke out as a star for the Mariners, an important development for him, of course, but also for the Mariners and their rebuild. Lewis hit .262/.364/.437 with 11 home runs and highlight-reel defensive work in centerfield. The 26-year-old Cronenworth came to San Diego as an unheralded pickup from the Rays, but the two-way player focused on his offense in 2020, got regular reps at second base, and emerged as a star. Cronenworth hit .285/.354/.477 in 192 plate appearances while completing the Padres infield picture.

AL Comeback Player: Carlos Carrasco

NL Comeback Player: Daniel Bard

These are both tremendous stories. Carrasco was treated for leukemia last season before returning at the end of the year. This season he returned to his prior form, going 3-4 with a 2.91 ERA/3.59 FIP across 68 innings. Bard, meanwhile, hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2013, retiring in 2017. He discovered renewed velocity while coaching, then came back to become the Rockies’ closer by the end of 2020. He made 23 appearances with a 3.65 ERA/3.64 FIP with 6 saves. Many have tried and failed to provide steady relief in Colorado, so for Bard to come back where he did is particularly impressive.

The traditional awards that we tend to reference throughout the years are released by the Baseball Writer’s Association of America. They announced their reveal dates today as well: November 11th for the Cy Young and November 12th for MVP.

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