Trevor Bauer

The Reds are headed to the playoffs for the first time since 2013, thanks in large part to an excellent season from staff ace Trevor Bauer.  Naturally, the team is hopeful of retaining the star right-hander when he hits free agency this winter, though president of baseball Dick Williams said the Reds’ braintrust (which includes owner/CEO Bob Castellini and GM Nick Krall) were still what they hope is a long October run away from discussing offseason plans.

“Well, you know, Bob and I and Nick and the group will do everything we can to make that happen,” Williams told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon and other reporters.  “I’d love to say yes that there are scenarios where it could happen. It’s honestly not something we’re working on today, right now, we’re really focused on the postseason, but I’d love to think that Trevor would come back.”

The Reds aren’t strangers to big contracts, as evidenced by Joey Votto’s team-record extension from the 2012 season and most recent deals like Eugenio Suarez’s extension or last offseason’s free agent deals with Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas.  This winter’s spending market will undeniably be different in the wake of the shortened 2020 season and the league-wide revenue losses brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, but in terms of pure track record, it isn’t out of the question that the Reds could lure Bauer back to the fold.

In a pure bidding war for a top free agent, the Reds would be underdogs.  But given Bauer’s rather unique stance towards free agency, Cincinnati might have a better chance than expected.  “I don’t think any team is out of the running to sign me,” Bauer told Sheldon and other media members, and the righty added that he has enjoyed his time with the team — particularly now that the playoffs are a reality.

“I don’t see this team as a losing team.  We lost some games early that we probably shouldn’t have lost, but we’re in a position now to go to the postseason, and it takes a lot of energy to change a culture and to get over the hump initially,” Bauer said.  “Once you do, you set yourself up for a window of success.  Looking out into the future, if you’re talking about the I-want-to-win qualification, I feel like this is a team that I can win with, for sure.”

As evidenced by the last two weeks, the Reds are a formidable team when everything is running on all cylinders.  Cincinnati is 10-3 over its last 13 games, a well-timed hot streak that booked the Reds a spot in the NL playoff bracket.  Led by Bauer, the club’s pitching has been among the league’s best over that 13-game stretch, and the offense that struggled for much of the season finally began to perk up (a 102 wRC+ since September 13, the tenth-best such mark of any team in baseball).

It remains to be seen whether or not the Reds can make some noise this particular October, and going forward, the pieces are seemingly in place to make the team a consistent winner.  Moustakas and (if he doesn’t opt out) Castellanos are signed through at least the 2023 season, Suarez through 2024, Sonny Gray through 2022, and younger building blocks like Luis Castillo, Jesse Winker, and Tyler Mahle only become arbitration-eligible this coming winter.

That being said, Cincinnati definitely placed a win-now focus on 2020 while Bauer was still in the fold.  A little less than $13MM will be freed up when free agents Freddy Galvis, Anthony DeSclafani, and Nate Jones come off the books, though that money may be fully absorbed by the team’s many forthcoming arbitration raises.  It doesn’t leave much room for Bauer to get a big bump up from his $17.5MM salary for 2020, and Bauer’s stated willingness to consider shorter-term deals (on a bigger average annual value) helps the Reds in the longer run but still puts them well beyond their usual financial comfort zone for 2021 or 2022 unless Castellini okays such a splurge.

If Bauer did leave, the Reds would at least get some return in the form of a draft pick.  The club will surely issue Bauer a qualifying offer that will be rejected, thus putting the Reds in line to receive a compensatory draft pick if Bauer signs elsewhere.

Reds right-hander Trevor Bauer was already the top pitcher on MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings back in February — well before the league shut down for several months, giving way to what felt like interminable negotiations between the league and MLBPA on a way to safely return to play. That was also before other projected top pitchers (e.g. Robbie Ray, Mike Minor) struggled immensely in 2020’s 60-game slate. It was before Marcus Stroman opted out of the season.

It was also before the 29-year-old Bauer absolutely obliterated opposing lineups en route to what is currently an MLB-best 1.71 ERA and a ninth-ranked 2.83 FIP. Bauer has struck out 37.4 percent of the hitters he’s faced this season against just a 6.8 percent walk rate. The resulting 30.6 K-BB% trails only Shane Bieber for the MLB lead. Per Statcast, Bauer ranks in the 96th percentile or better in each of expected batting average against, expected slugging percentage again and expected weighted on-base average. He ranks at the very top of the league in terms of fastball spin rate and expected ERA.

Bauer might not be the clear favorite for the NL Cy Young, thanks largely to sub-2.00 showings from each of Yu Darvish, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes — plus yet another dominant campaign from reigning, two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. But Bauer is squarely in the mix with at least two remaining starts on the schedule. The performance of all those names down the stretch will prove pivotal in determining who takes home that hardware.

Cy Young or not, Bauer has only furthered his standing as this winter’s most desirable free-agent starter. It’s not particularly close. Take a look through this year’s free-agent class and it’s clear that he is in his own tier.

With that in mind, it’s of particular note that Bauer took some time this week to discuss his forthcoming trip to the open market in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio). Asked about his priorities in free agency, Bauer replied:

I want to win. I want to be with a team that has a winning culture. I want to be there in the playoffs. I want a chance at a World Series. That’s one thing that really drives me. I want a chance to pitch every fourth day instead of every fifth. That really drives me. Going along with that: how’s the medical staff? How’s the technology — the information that’s available on the coaching staff? What’s the culture of the organization like?

Most top free agents prioritize signing with contending clubs or expected contenders, of course. But Bauer has spoken in the past about his desire to pitch every fourth day instead of every fifth, and that’s a more or less unheard-of concession for teams to make in today’s era of constantly evolving pitcher usage. Pitching every fourth day would be a throwback to rotations of a generation past, at a time when more teams are leaning toward increased rest and limiting trips through the batting order.

The technology component of Bauer’s decision is also a key factor to consider. Bauer himself takes an extremely analytical approach to pitching, so it stands to reason that he’d want a more progressive, data-forward team in that regard. The Reds’ hiring of Driveline head Kyle Boddy, with whom Bauer had already worked in the past, was surely a welcome addition for Bauer. There are still more analytically inclined clubs out there, of course, and Bauer will garner interest from virtually every hopeful contender.

The most notable portion of Bauer’s interview wasn’t the generally expected traits he hoped to see with a new club (or in a return to the Reds), but rather his softening of a long-voiced preference to sign one-year deals. Bauer has previously been vocal about playing out his career in mercenary fashion — only signing one-year arrangements. Doing so would not only give him annual control of where he pitches (thus ensuring regular work with contending teams) but could also increase his earning power.

There’s inherent risk in that approach, of course; a potential injury or decline would leave him without the safety net of a guaranteed multi-year salary. But teams are also much more willing to pay a premium on shorter-term deals — one-year deals in particular.

Just 18 months ago, Bauer again stated his intent to “go year-to-year my entire career.” He added, rhetorically: “Why would you lock yourself in a situation that may not make you happy? I think that’s highly inefficient.”

Now? Bauer makes clear that he’s open to one-year deals but wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a longer-term pact.

Again, I think it comes back to I just want a chance to win every year. I want to be in a situation where I feel valued and I have the chance to conduct my career the way I want to conduct it. So, pitch every fourth day, and stuff like that. I want to challenge myself and have a chance to do those things. So if there’s a situation where it presents itself where it is a four-year or five-year deal, and I feel confident that’s going to be a situation that’s good for me, I would consider it. I do think that in order to do the things that I want to do, I think I’m going to have to take on a little more risk than normal in those long-term contracts. …I’m not afraid of the one-year deals. I’m not afraid of the longer deals. It’s just going to be a case-by-case basis, and we’ll see what the situations look like.

Perhaps those comments were made more as a negotiating tactic that’ll allow Bauer to point back to them over the winter as he seeks to improve one-year offers. Perhaps he’s had a genuine change of heart and is now more open to the idea of a multi-year deal if it’s put forth by the right team. Other factors, such as opt-out clauses, could give him the opportunity to thread the needle and enjoy the best of both worlds. Every year tacked onto the deal and every opt-out clause included, however, figures to come at the expense of the overall annual value of the pact. Ultimately, whether it’s on a one-year deal or a multi-year deal, Bauer should earn the largest annual salary of any free-agent starter this winter.