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NL Central Notes: Senzel, Gant, Cardinals, Cubs, Hoerner

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It’s going to be longer than originally expected before the Reds get Nick Senzel back on the field, as manager David Bell told reporters (including MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon) that Senzel isn’t likely to be activated from the 60-day injured list as soon as he is immediately eligible.  “I would think towards the end of July before we would see him back here,” Bell said.  “That’s a bit of a guess, but just because there’s not an exact clear day right now. He’s definitely progressing the right way, but it’s just taken some time.”

Senzel was initially placed on the 10-day IL on May 21 and he underwent arthroscopic left knee surgery five days later, with Cincinnati shifting him to the 60-day IL in June when an 40-man roster spot was required.  The 60-day placement backdates to May 21, so Senzel would have been eligible to return just after the All-Star break.  While pushing Senzel’s return date back from mid-July to late July isn’t a huge delay on paper, it does represent even more lost time for a player who has unfortunately become an injured-list regular during his young career.  On the plus side, Senzel has already started some light baseball activities, such as pre-game throwing over the last few days.

More from the NL Central…

  • The Cardinals are shuffling their rotation, as manager Mike Shildt told MLB.com’s Zachary Silver and other reporters that right-hander John Gant is moving to the bullpen.  Gant has a 3.76 ERA over 14 starts and 64 2/3 innings, though a 6.00 SIERA, a host of advanced metrics and a league-high 48 walks indicate that Gant has been very fortunate to post such a respectable ERA.  Though control has been an issue for Gant throughout his career, he has posted good results as a reliever in the past, so the Cards are hopeful he can help out a struggling bullpen.  As for the open rotation spot, it will likely be recently-signed veteran Wade LeBlanc moving from the pen to the starting five.
  • Three injured Cubs pitchers are slated to begin Triple-A rehab assignments this weekend, as The Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro was among those to report that right-hander Dillon Maples (triceps strain) will begin his rehab today, while right-hander Trevor Williams (appendicitis) and left-hander Justin Steele (hamstring strain) will get underway on Sunday.  In addition, infielder David Bote (dislocated shoulder) might start a rehab assignment next week.
  • There isn’t yet any word on when Nico Hoerner might begin his own rehab work, though the Cubs infielder/outfielder continues to make progress a month after being placed on the 10-day IL with a left hamstring strain.  “It was a four-to-six-week injury, and four weeks was Tuesday [June 22]. So I think we’re at the right pace,” Hoerner told Russell Dorsey of The Chicago Sun-Times and other reporters.  Hoerner has been ramping up activity over the last week, taking part in base-running drills and facing live pitching from Williams during the righty’s recent bullpen session.  Hoerner was off to a very nice start prior to his injury, hitting .338/.405/.432 over his first 84 plate appearances.

Cubs’ Trevor Williams Out Indefinitely After Emergency Appendectomy

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11:09AM: Williams has been officially placed on the 10-day IL, retroactive to May 28.  Right-hander Kohl Stewart was called up from Triple-A and will start today for the Cubs.

8:19AM: Cubs hurler Trevor Williams will be out indefinitely after undergoing an emergency appendectomy, per Jared Wyllus of the Chicago Sun-Times. Williams was originally slated to start today’s game against the Padres.

It’s looking like Keegan Thompson will step in for a spot start. The 26-year-old made his first career start in the second game of a doubleheader against the vaunted Dodgers back on May the 4th, tossing 3 2/3 scoreless innings. Thompson has yet to surrender an earned run in his young career with 15 scoreless innings over his first nine appearances. He’s done a tremendous job of keeping the ball on the ground so far with a 58.3 percent groundball rate, though that’s not a tendency he displayed as a minor leaguer.

As for Williams, the situation might seem more dire than it is, given the “indefinite” designation of his injury status. Likely, this is simply a matter of wait-and-see, assuming there were no further complications to the surgery.

They will need to replace his production in the meantime. Williams hasn’t exactly been a revelation since joining the rotation from the Pirates – 5.36 ERA/4.76 FIP while averaging less than five innings per start – but if nothing else, he’s striking out batters at a career-best rate of 24.9 percent. He’s also walking more batters than usual with a 10.2 percent walk rate. To his credit, Williams has allowed two or less earned runs in seven of his ten starts, and he’s coming off his best outing of the year, a six-inning, one-earned-run effort against his former club in Pittsburgh.

Free Agent Notes: Mets, Williams, Folty, Arrieta, Twins, Rosenthal

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The Mets have already put a lot of focus on their rotation this winter, between retaining Marcus Stroman via the qualifying offer and adding Carlos Carrasco and Joey Lucchesi in trades.  While Trevor Bauer’s name continues to loom over Citi Field, the Mets are also continuing to explore other hurlers.  According to Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter), New York had interest in right-hander Trevor Williams before Williams signed with the Cubs.  The Mets were also among the teams present to watch Mike Foltynewicz during his recent throwing session, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).

With Steven Matz recently dealt to the Blue Jays, the Mets’ projected starting four looks like Jacob deGrom, Carrasco, Stroman, and David Peterson.  Lucchesi probably has the inside line on the fifth starter job for now, but the Mets aren’t short on other depth options in the upper minors, and Foltynewicz would provide another experienced candidate to either compete for a rotation spot or perhaps fit into the bullpen.  Since Noah Syndergaard is expected to make a midseason return from Tommy John rehab, whomever fills the fifth starter role is ultimately keeping the seat warm for Syndergaard — barring the shake-up of a Bauer signing, that is.

More on some other free agent news…

  • Aside from the Mets, Foltynewicz also drew interest from the Rays, White Sox, and Twins, Heyman writes.  An All-Star with the Braves in 2018, Foltynewicz took a step back in 2019 and then pitched in only one game in 2020, resulting in his opting for free agency after being outrighted during the season.  Given these recent struggles, “Folty” would very likely have to pitch his way into a rotation spot during Spring Training, yet it is easy to see why teams would have interest in the right-hander as a change of scenery candidate.  The White Sox just re-signed Carlos Rodon, though considering Rodon has also had a tough time over the last two seasons, his presence wouldn’t necessarily rule out a potential deal between Foltynewicz and the Sox.
  • The Cubs had interest in Jake Arrieta but a signing is “doubtful,” ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers tweets, since the Cubs want a less-expensive option.  Arrieta’s asking price can’t be all that high considering his middling results over the last two seasons, but perhaps the $2.5MM (with deferred money involved) the Cubs gave Williams is a better example of what the team is willing to spend.
  • Trevor Rosenthal is the top reliever remaining on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and since the Twins are known to be looking for bullpen help, could the two sides link up?  The Athletic’s Dan Hayes isn’t very optimistic, as Rosenthal’s asking price looks to be too high for Minnesota’s liking.  The more money the Twins can save on relief pitching, the more they can then devote to a starting pitcher, but Hayes does think “they need relief certainty more than rotation certainty” at this point due to the rotation depth already on hand.

Cubs To Sign Trevor Williams

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The Cubs have agreed to a one-year, Major League deal with right-hander Trevor Williams, Evan Altman of Cubs Insider reports (Twitter link).  The contract will become official once Williams passes a physical.  Williams will earn roughly $2.5MM, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, and Altman notes that some portion of Williams’ salary is likely to be deferred.

After spending all five of his MLB seasons in a Pirates uniform, Williams will remain in the NL Central and now look to win a job at the back of Chicago’s rotation.  Kyle Hendricks, Zach Davies, Adbert Alzolay, and Alec Mills are lined up for the first four starting spots, though only Hendricks and Davies truly have their spots locked up.  Kohl Stewart was also recently signed to a big league contract, Shelby Miller to a minors deal, and at least one more arm is on the way, as ESPN’s Jesse Rogers tweets that the Cubs are expected more pitching before Spring Training opens.

Williams opted to become a free agent rather than accept an outright assignment from the Pirates back in November, with the Bucs’ move essentially acting as an early non-tender — Williams was projected to earn between $3.2MM and $4.6MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility, and the Cubs control him through 2022 via that third arbitration year.  The righty received a fair amount of interest on the open market despite some rough numbers in 2020.

Williams posted a 6.18 ERA and only a 19.4 strikeout percentage (ranking in the 25th percentile of all pitchers) over 55 1/3 innings.  The home run problems that plagued Williams in 2019 worsened last season, as he allowed a league-high 15 homers.  Both the home run increase and a marked uptick in hard contact allowed has led to struggles for Williams since the start of the 2019 season.

During the 2017-18 seasons, however, Williams looked like a durable young pitcher on the rise, as he had a 3.56 ERA over 321 innings in Pittsburgh’s rotation.  Williams kept hitters off-balance despite a lack of a blazing fastball or big strikeout numbers, though since his SIERA was over a run higher than his 3.56 ERA, there might have been some good fortune involved.

Williams (who turns 29 in April) does have a solid track record when it comes to eating innings, which will certainly be valuable on a Cubs staff that may be juggling multiple arms at the back of the rotation.  Alzolay, Mills, and Stewart have only 215 1/3 combined big league innings on their resume.

Trade/FA Notes: Santander, Profar, Bart, Yates, T. Williams

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Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander has drawn trade interest this winter, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. However, as Kubatko suggests, that doesn’t necessarily mean Santander will go anywhere. The 26-year-old is coming off a highly productive season in which he batted .261/.315/.575 (130 wRC+) with 11 home runs, and he’s not scheduled to become a free agent until after 2024. Santander will earn a projected $1.7MM to $3MM in arbitration next season. All of that makes Santander an appealing trade candidate, but the Orioles could simply retain him as a building block.

  • The Padres are still attempting to re-sign free-agent infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. The switch-hitting Profar, 27, spent last season with San Diego, where he batted .278/.343/.428 (111 wRC+) with seven home runs in 202 trips to the plate. Defensively, Profar divided most of his time between left field and second base. Tommy Pham and Jake Cronenworth are among the options for the Padres at those spots, but the team seems to believe it will be able to keep fitting Profar in if it re-signs him. MLBTR predicted at the start of the offseason that Profar would land a one-year, $7MM contract in free agency.
  • Clubs “routinely ask about” Giants catcher Joey Bart in trade talks, Rosenthal writes. The Giants are not actively attempting to move the 24-year-old, though, according to Rosenthal. Bart, the second overall pick in the 2018 draft, got off to a rough start in the majors last year with a .233/.288/.320 line, no home runs and 41 strikeouts against three walks in 111 plate appearances. However, Bart was dominant at the Double-A level the previous season. He or Patrick Bailey, the Giants’ first-round pick last summer, could end up as their answer at catcher when the iconic Buster Posey departs (potentially after next season).
  • The Twins were among the finalists for reliever Kirby Yates before he agreed to join the Blue Jays on Tuesday, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News relays. It’s not surprising the Twins were in on one of the open market’s highest-profile relievers, as their bullpen has taken hits this offseason with Trevor May, Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard getting to free agency. May signed with the Mets, though Romo and Clippard remain without contracts.
  • Former Mets general manager Jared Porter was part of negotiations for right-hander Trevor Williams before the team fired the executive Tuesday, per Mike Puma of the New York Post. It’s unclear if the Porter-less Mets will continue pursuing Williams, whom the Pirates designated for assignment in November, especially after acquiring fellow starter Joey Lucchesi from the Padres on Monday. Williams was a solid part of the Pirates’ rotation from 2017-18, but he struggled to a 5.60 ERA/5.01 SIERA in 201 innings and 37 appearances (all starts) between 2019-20.

Pitching Notes: S. Gray, T. Williams, Urena, Phils, Jays, Matz

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“Several teams” have interest in Reds right-hander Sonny Gray, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. That isn’t at all surprising in the wake of the late-November news that the Reds will at least listen to offers for Gray. General manager Nick Krall suggested later that he isn’t in a hurry to trade Gray away, but it does seem the Reds are in payroll-cutting mode, evidenced by Monday’s trade that sent reliever Raisel Iglesias to the Angels. Gray only has a guaranteed $20MM left on his contract over the next two years, but his performance in 2020 should help make it easier for the Reds to garner a major return in a deal if they do decide to move him. The 31-year-old ended the season with 56 innings of 3.70 ERA/3.05 FIP ball, 11.57 K/9 against 4.18 BB/9, and a 51.1 percent groundball rate.

More on a handful of other pitchers…

  • There are “more than” six teams interested in free-agent righties Trevor Williams and Jose Urena, per Heyman. Both players were cut loose by their former teams last week, but they’ve had success in the past and could be interesting buy-low hurlers in free agency. Williams, 28, struggled mightily in the previous two years but gave the Pirates 321 innings of 3.56 ERA/3.94 FIP pitching from 2017-18. It has been a similar story for the 29-year-old Urena, whom offenses victimized from 2019-20. In the prior two years, though, the ex-Marlin registered a 3.90 ERA/4.68 FIP over 343 2/3 frames.
  • The pitching-needy Phillies “never engaged” righty Charlie Morton, lefty Drew Smyly or reliever Trevor May before they signed free-agent contracts with other teams, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes. Two of those players – Morton and Smyly – previously played for the Phillies. They could have improved the Phillies’ rotation, while May might have been an asset to a bullpen that is in desperate need of help. Each player landed an eight-figure deal, though, and the Phillies don’t seem eager to hand out large paydays to anyone this offseason.
  • Before the Mets avoided arbitration with Steven Matz on a $5.2MM agreement, they reached out to the Blue Jays to gauge their interest in the southpaw, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. No trade came together, of course. Toronto would have been hard pressed to consider Matz an upgrade for its rotation after he recorded a horrific 9.68 ERA/7.76 FIP in 30 2/3 innings last season.

Trevor Williams Elects Free Agency

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Trevor Williams has elected free agency over accepting an assignment to Triple-A, per John Dreker of Pirates Prospects (via Twitter). Williams was designated for assignment last week and largely assumed to choose free agency given his role in the Pirates rotation the last four seasons.

All told, Williams has been a steadying presence in the Buccos rotation since 2017, making a total of 93 starts spanning 522 innings with a 4.34 ERA/4.52 FIP, 7.0 K/9 to 3.0 BB/9, and 2.07 bWAR per 200 frames. The 28-year-old has mostly taken the backseat in the public eye to higher profile arms the likes of Tyler Glasnow and Chris Archer, however.

Williams best work came in 2017 and 2018. Last season was a low-point for Williams as he struggled to a 6.18 ERA/6.30 FIP in 55 1/3 innings over 11 starts. His strikeout rate actually increased to a career-high 19.4 K%, but his command wandered as well as his walk rate climbed to 8.3 BB%. The bigger issue for Williams was keeping the ball in the ballpark. He surrendered an ML-leading 15 home runs in 2020 despite the launch angle and exit velocity of opposing hitters decreasing from the previous season.

Pirates Designate Trevor Williams For Assignment

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The Pirates announced Friday that they’ve designated right-hander Trevor Williams and infielder/outfielder Jose Osuna for assignment. That pair of moves allows the team to select infielder Rodolfo Castro and righty Max Kranick to the 40-man roster, protecting both from the Rule 5 Draft.

Williams has been a regular in the Pittsburgh rotation over the past three seasons and enjoyed a strong 2018 campaign, pitching to a 3.11 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 170 2/3 innings. Outside of a few strong starts early in 2020, however, it’s been mostly downhill for the 28-year-old. Over the past two seasons he’s turned in a combined 5.60 ERA and 5.45 FIP in 201 innings. With a projected salary north of $3MM, the Pirates clearly weren’t interested in tendering him a contract for the 2021 season.

The Pirates surely gauged trade interest in Williams before taking the step to designate him for assignment, so it seems unlikely another club will make a move to acquire him now. It’s possible a team could place a waiver claim, but it’s every bit as likely that he’ll simply pass through waivers, at which point he has the service time needed to become a free agent. He’d make for an affordable reclamation project for teams in search of rotation help, and the fact that he still has three years of control remaining via the arbitration process only boosts his appeal if he does indeed reach the market.

Osuna, 27, enjoyed a solid season at the plate in 2019 when he hit .264/.310/.456 with 10 big flies in 285 trips to the plate, but his 82 plate appearances in 2020 resulted in a disastrous .205/.244/.397 output. It’s clear that Osuna possesses some right-handed pop, but his career .241/.280/.430 batting line also shines a light on some severe on-base deficiencies. Osuna has experience at all four corner spots, so perhaps another team will look at him as a bench possibility if he clears waivers. He was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to make a bit more than $1MM in 2021.

NL Central Notes: Betts, Brewers, Venable, Tigers, Pirates

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Could Mookie Betts have blossomed to stardom in a Brewers uniform?  It could have been a reality if former Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin had had his way, as he tried to acquire Betts from the Red Sox in 2013 in exchange for closer Francisco Rodriguez, according to MLB.com’s Adam Berry and Adam McCalvy.  As a fifth-round pick for Boston in the 2011 draft, “Mookie sort of went under the radar if you went by the so-called MLB Pipeline or whatever.  I don’t think at the time he was in their top 10-15 prospects,” Melvin said.  Both the Brewers’ analytics and scouting departments agreed on Betts’ potential, however, so the pitch was made to then-Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington, who wisely declined the offer.

Betts was already in the midst of a big season at the A-ball levels in 2013, and Cherington recalls that by season’s end, Betts’ “name was the first one” mentioned by other clubs in trade negotiations.  “Doug Melvin was the first to ask, so I always give Doug credit.  He was the first one to ask for him,” Cherington said.

While Milwaukee fans take a moment to sigh ruefully, let’s look at some other items from around the NL Central…

  • Cubs third base coach Will Venable spoke with the Tigers about their managerial vacancy, NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmyer reports.  Venable was first cited as a potential candidate for the Tigers job back in September, and Venable has also recently interviewed with the Red Sox about their managerial job.  Beyond the Red Sox and Tigers, “other clubs also have sought the Cubs’ permission to talk with Venable about other, non-managerial openings in their organizations,” Wittenmyer writes.  A veteran of nine MLB seasons, Venable has spent the last three years in Wrigleyville as a special assistant to Theo Epstein, as well as a first base and third base coach.  This is the second straight winter that Venable has been a popular candidate, as the Cubs considered him for their own manager’s job last offseason, and the Astros and Giants also interviewed him for their managerial openings.
  • The Pirates have 19 players eligible for arbitration this offseason, the most of any team in baseball.  At least some of those names won’t be back in Pittsburgh in 2021, as The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel thinks as many as six players could be non-tendered and several others are trade candidates.  Interestingly, Biertempfel cites Trevor Williams as a potential non-tender, on the heels of a season that saw Williams get off to a good start but then struggle to finish with a 6.18 ERA over 55 1/3 innings, with a league-high 15 homers allowed.  Williams received some trade interest from at least one team (the Blue Jays) back in August, so it’s possible Toronto or another club could have some talks with the Pirates before the non-tender deadline.  Williams had a pair of solid seasons in 2017-18 and is entering his age-29 season with two years of team control remaining.  MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Williams to earn between $3.2MM and $4.6MM through the arbitration process this winter.

Blue Jays Reportedly Considering Trevor Williams, Chad Kuhl

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The Blue Jays picked up another victory Monday, defeating the Rays by a 6-4 count to improve to 14-13 at almost the halfway point of the season. Few expected the Blue Jays to push for a playoff spot this season, but they’re a mere two games back of wild-card position in the American League. With the trade deadline just a week away, Toronto could wind up as a buyer. Indeed, general manager Ross Atkins said last week that the Jays are aiming to improve their rotation, and Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports that the team’s “considering” a pair of Pirates right-handers in Trevor Williams and Chad Kuhl.

Toronto’s rotation has taken multiple hits in recent days, as Nate Pearson, Matt Shoemaker and Trent Thornton have gone on the injured list. As a result, Hyun Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson are the only sure things in the club’s rotation, though Ryu’s the lone member of the trio who has offered a blend of strong bottom-line production and encouraging peripherals so far this season.

In Williams or Kuhl, the Blue Jays would land a hurler capable of contributing to their rotation beyond this season. Both are controllable for multiple years, but Williams is the more proven of the pair. The 28-year-old was a solid starter for the Pirates from 2017-18 before falling off last year, when he logged 145 2/3 innings of 5.38 ERA/5.12 FIP ball, but seems to be amid a rebound campaign. Williams has made five starts in 2020 and posted 24 1/3 innings of 3.70 ERA/4.21 FIP ball with 8.51 K/9 and 2.96 BB/9. He’s on a prorated $2.825MM salary this year and has another two arbitration-eligible seasons remaining.

Kuhl also has two arb years left after 2020, though he’s currently earning a less expensive salary than Williams (a prorated $840K). The 27-year-old is off to a decent start this season after missing all of 2019 as a result of Tommy John surgery. Kuhl has made five appearances (three starts) in the early going, averaged upward of 94 mph on his fastball and registered a 2.84 ERA/4.98 FIP with 9.0 K/9 and 3.32 BB/9 over 19 innings.

Neither Williams nor Kuhl would command a haul for the Pirates, who are well out of playoff contention. As Morosi notes, though, the Blue Jays could make for a logical trade partner because of the familiarity first-year Bucs general manager Ben Cherington has with Toronto’s farm system. Before taking over the Pirates, Cherington was a promiment part of the Jays’ front office.

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