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Randy Arozarena

Cardinals Notes: Leake Trade, Lynn, Outfield, Weaver

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The Cardinals’ trade of right-hander Mike Leake didn’t go over well with his now-former teammates, writes Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “I said, ’Is this a joke?’ … It was shocking to all of us,” outfielder Tommy Pham tells Hummel, describing the moment he learned of the news. Right-hander Lance Lynn’s comments suggested a bit of frustration as well: “If you look at everything that’s happened so far, there’s been no acquisitions (by the Cardinals).”

Lynn also further addressed the lack of extension talks between the Cardinals and his agents. “I’m sure whenever the time comes — when the World Series is over and five days after, I’m sure somebody will talk to me,” said Lynn. “…They’ve had a whole season. Five days isn’t going to matter. But I just work here.” Cards fans will definitely want to check out the full column for more player quotes as well as notes on Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha.

A bit more out of St. Louis…

  • The Cardinals have collected an abundance of outfield talent in the minors and could potentially trade from that depth this winter, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “We’re not going to have enough room at the inn,” said president of baseball operations John Mozeliak of his organization’s outfield depth. “That is something we, as an organization, are going to have to take a very hard look at this offseason and decide what makes the most sense.” St. Louis was reportedly open to considering trades involving Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. Their minor league ranks include Magneuris Sierra, Harrison Bader, recently acquired Tyler O’Neill, international signee/former Cuban pro Randy Arozarena as well as the much-improved Oscar Mercado, whose stock has risen considerably in 2017, Goold notes as part of his in-depth look at the team’s outfield stockpile. St. Louis is known to be seeking an impact bat for the middle of the lineup and, more speculatively speaking, could also pursue rotation help (especially if Lynn departs) and bullpen arms.
  • Right-hander Luke Weaver has impressed the Cardinals this month and looks more and more like a long-term asset in St. Louis, writes MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch. While he was initially stepping into the spot of the injured Wainwright, the trade of Leake now creates a potential long-term opening for Weaver, who has turned in 29 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 11.1 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 50.7 percent ground-ball rate. Brewers left fielder Ryan Braun sang Weaver’s praises when speaking with Langosch after facing him in two separate games this month. And, asked if Weaver will hold a rotation spot through season’s end, Cards skipper Mike Matheny replied, “There’s no reason he shouldn’t be here.”

International Notes/Signings: Gutierrez, Padres, Cardinals

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Cuban right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez, who rated No. 3 on MLB.com’s rankings of international prospects, is still weighing multiple options, tweets MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. Gutierrez has reportedly bounced around to multiple agencies and had a lengthy stay on the free agent market (he was declared a free agent last July) and may now pitch in Japan or wait until next year’s international signing period to strike a deal. That seems like an awfully lengthy wait for a pitcher who has drawn some pretty solid reviews in the past and as recently as March was said to have re-established himself as a prospect after briefly seeing his stuff take a step backward. Gutierrez is 20 years of age, so he’s subject to international spending limitations for now, although if he does wait until next year to sign, the international free agency process could look markedly different, as it’ll be discussed at length in the upcoming wave of collective bargaining negotiations.

That said, there are also a pair of international signings that merit mention…

  • The Padres have signed Cuban righty Ronald Bolanos for a bonus that will be worth a bit more than $2MM, reports Ben Badler of Baseball America. Badler notes that Bolanos, 20, played mostly as an outfielder in the 18U leagues in Cuba but converted to the mound in 2014 and has seen a substantial uptick in velocity as he’s filled out, with his heater now ranging from 90 to 96 mph. Badler praises his slider as a potentially above-average pitch and gives a less flattering review of Bolanos curveball, adding that the right-hander won’t pitch for the Padres this season but could open with one of San Diego’s Class-A affiliates in 2017. For those keeping score at home, the Padres’ total international expenditures (including the 100 percent overage tax with which they’re being hit on each of these signings) is now in the range of $65MM (as the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Dennis Lin points out, on Twitter).
  • Lost a bit amid last week’s trade deadline chaos was the fact that the Cardinals signed Cuban shortstop/outfielder Randy Arozarena for a bonus of $1.25MM, as Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald first reported (Twitter link). Following the signing, Badler wrote about the 21-year-old’s plus speed and plate discipline, noting that he could eventually develop enough pop for 10 to 15 homers but figures to derive more value from his OBP than his power. He’s advanced enough to jump right into the mix at Class-A Advanced, in Badler’s estimation. Sanchez’s rankings listed Arozarena as the No. 16 prospect on this year’s international market.

Quick Hits: Opt-Outs, Hoover, Gutierrez, Arozarena, Braves

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In a piece for the Hardball Times, Matt Swartz gives an in-depth explanation into the methodology he used when projecting the value of this offseason’s opt-out clauses here at MLBTR (links to Swartz’s valuations). As Swartz explains, the key to placing a dollar value on such a complex clause is in forecasting the extent to which the projections of a player’s value will change over time. As Swartz points out, whatever amount we currently project a player to be worth for the post-opt-out-date duration of his contract will assuredly change by the time that opt-out decision surfaces (especially in cases like David Price, where the opt-out is in three years). Setting a standard deviation of that expected value is crucial. Those that have a strong interest in the financial/economical side of the game and the math that goes into the financial decision-making of clubs will want to check out Swartz’s column in its entirety. Additionally, you can check out Swartz’s offseason appearance on the MLBTR Podcast (although the focus of that discussion was on his arbitration projections).

A few more notes from around the game…

  • Right-hander J.J. Hoover will no longer serve as the Reds’ closer, manager Bryan Price told reporters, including C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The Reds will mix and match, perhaps turning to options such as Tony Cingrani, Blake Wood and Caleb Cotham, though Price said that none of the three is ready to take over the closer’s role on a full-time basis. The Cincinnati bullpen has struggled across the board this season, with Jumbo Diaz already having been optioned to the minors and Keyvius Sampson finding himself designated for assignment earlier today. Hoover posted a strong 2.94 ERA in a setup role last season, though his modest strikeout rate, elevated walk rate and excellent fortune on balls in play all served as warning signs that he could struggle to repeat that success. Hoover won an arbitration hearing this winter, resulting in a $1.4MM salary.
  • Ben Badler of Baseball America provides some updates on a pair of intriguing Cuban free agents: 20-year-old right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez and 21-year-old outfielder/infielder Randy Arozarena. Gutierrez’s most recent showcase increased interest around the league, and he’ll host another open showcase for clubs on May 29. Last month’s showing for scouts saw Gutierrez sit 92-94 mph with his fastball to complement a “hammer” curve that he was throwing around 80 mph. Gutierrez’s projectable frame has long led scouts to believe that he would grow into more velocity, Badler writes, and that appears to be the case now. Badler also recaps Arozarena’s recent performance in Mexico and notes that he’s likely to wait until July 2 to sign.
  • The Braves have optioned right-hander Williams Perez to Triple-A Gwinnett, and his rotation spot could be filled by either Mike Foltynewicz or Aaron Blair, writes MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Both right-handers have come over to the Braves in high-profile trades over the past 15 months, with Foltynewicz arriving by way of the Evan Gattis trade and Blair coming over from Arizona alongside Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte in the Shelby Miller blockbuster. Blair’s stock is currently higher after Foltynewicz struggled in his Braves debut last season, but Bowman notes that Atlanta could also elect to keep Blair in Triple-A to gain more experience and delay the start of service time/arbitration clock.

MLB Declares Randy Arozarena Free Agent

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Cuban infielder/outfielder Randy Arozarena has been declared a free agent, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. The 20-year-old joins fellow standout Lazaro Armenteros as intriguing prospects who are now free to join an MLB organization.

According to Badler, Arozarena will hold a showcase in Mexico on January 22. Expectations appear to be that he’ll sign in relatively short order after that occurs. Notably, Arozarena will be subject to international bonus limitations.

In its last ranking of young Cuban talent, BA listed Arozarena as the ninth-best prospect who was (then) still on the island. Calling him a “quick-twitch athlete,” Badler praises Arozarena for his speed and says he could play up the middle and feature at the top of a big league lineup — if he reaches his potential.

While it doesn’t seem as if there’s a lot of power projection for the youngster, Badler does say he’s got enough pop to be a double-digit home run threat despite generally featuring a “line-drive approach.” And he’s said to have good contact skills, bat speed, plate discipline, and pitch recognition, making for an appealing overall package.

Defense remains something of a question, as Arozarena has moved around quite a bit in recent years. He has a history at shortstop and has featured there in showcases, but as Badler explains he has also been utilized quite a bit in the outfield in recent years. It’s not clear yet where Arozarena will end up, but it appears likely that he has a good shot at being able to handle a challenging defensive assignment in the long run, adding to his value.

Though he’s a fair bit older than Lazarito, Arozarena is still not a player who’ll be pursued for his immediate impact. Badler guesses that he’d be likely to open at the High-A level to start the 2016 campaign, suggesting it could be a few years until he factors at the major league level.

International Notes: Hwang, Diaz, Sierra, Arozarena, Rodriguez

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Korean third baseman Jae-gyun Hwang has drawn quite a bit of notoriety for an enormous bat flip on a game-tying home run last month, but the Lotte Giants infielder should probably be drawing recognition for the fact that he could be posted this winter following what is shaping up to be a monster age-27 campaign in Korea. Hwang, who just turned 28, won the KBO home run derby and is currently batting .302/.352/.570 with 22 homers through 414 plate appearances. It’s true that the KBO is a very hitter-friendly environment, but Hwang’s numbers are nonetheless impressive. The fact that Pirates shortstop Jung Ho Kang has transitioned well to the Major Leagues could also help Hwang’s case this offseason, if posted. Hwang’s team does have incentive to post him, as he can become a true free agent following the 2016 season, at which point he could leave without the Giants receiving any compensation for one of their best players. It’s not certain that Hwang will end up being posted, of course, but given the relative dearth of free agent options at third base this winter, one can imagine teams showing interest in Hwang if he does become available.

A few more notes on some international players…

  • Cuban outfielder Yusniel Diaz registered with the commissioner’s office to file for free agency prior to May 15 of this year and, as such, should become eligible for free agency during the current signing period, reports Ben Badler of Baseball America. The 18-year-old should have won the Serie Nacional Rookie of the Year Award in Cuba in the opinion of many, but he defected after the season and was not honored. He hit .348/.447/.440 in his lone pro season in Cuba and would be subject to international spending limitations upon reaching free agency. Badler’s article also contains a highlight video of Diaz for those interested in catching a glimpse of the potential big leaguer.
  • Badler also has a highlight video of right-hander Yaisel Sierra, adding that the 23-year-old pitcher has established residency in a new country and is merely waiting to be declared a free agent by Major League Baseball. When that happens in the next couple of months, Sierra will be exempt from bonus pools and can sign a Major League deal for the any amount of money or length of time a team is willing to offer. We’ve had several notes on Sierra over the past few months here at MLBTR.
  • Badler offers an additional look at outfielder Randy Arozarena and shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez (the 21-year-old defensive wizard that did win Rookie of the Year honors after Diaz’s defection). Arozarena already has residency in Mexico and could be declared a free agent in the coming months (he’s subject to bonus pools), while the light-hitting Rodriguez is further removed from free agency (he, too, will be subject to international bonus pools).

Randy Arozarena Leaves Cuba

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Cuban infielder/outfielder Randy Arozarena, a 20-year-old prospect, has left the island with intentions of coming to Major League Baseball, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. He joins a growing stream of interesting Cuban players at various stages of qualifying for free agency.

Badler and BA tabbed Arozarena as the nation’s ninth-best prospect recently, calling him “a quick-twitch athlete with a lean, lively frame.” With good overall hitting ability and plus speed, Arozarena probably will not need to provide much power to have value. But the scouting report — which you’ll want to check out for a full breakdown (subscription required, and recommended) — indicates that the line-drive hitter could conceivably produce double-digit home runs with some adjustments and growth.

It remains to be seen where clubs will view him defensively: he’s spent time in center and left field after starting out as a middle infielder and also seeing action at third. The tools are there for him to play a premium defensive position down the line, says Badler, though it seems that there’s plenty of development left for him in that regard.

Arozarena will be subject to international spending limits when he signs. Given his profile it’s a good bet that he’ll go to a team that is willing to incur a two-year timeout to add him (likely, in conjunction with other significant outlays).

It’s obviously far to soon to guess as to Arozarena’s market, not least of which because he is just beginning an often-lengthy process of establishing residency and attaining free-agent status. But it is safe to say that those teams that are already set to face bans on pool-bound international signings over $300K (Angels, D’Backs, Rays, Red Sox, Yankees) will almost certainly be out of the race.

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