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Jon Jay Suffers Broken Forearm

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11:09pm: Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union Tribune writes that Jay will be re-evaluated three weeks from now and will be on the shelf for between four and six weeks total. A four- or even nearly a five-week absence could have Jay back just prior to this season’s Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, but there’s also a very real possibility that he’ll be out beyond the deadline. Jay won’t require surgery, and the injury is described by manager Andy Green as a “slight” fracture of the radius in Jay’s forearm. Addressing the length of time between Jay being struck by the pitch and today’s diagnosis, Green offered the following explanation:

“He got hit on the ulna (bone), and it banged into the radius and actually got the radius. So it’s not the bone that actually got hit. The swelling was between those two bones, so you couldn’t get a clear picture of it. That’s what the X-ray wasn’t able to reveal.”

12:45pm: Padres outfielder Jon Jay has suffered a broken forearm, Darren Smith of Mighty1090.com reports on Twitter. He’ll be placed on the 15-day DL, with Alex Dickerson brought up to take his place on the active roster.

[Related: Updated Padres Depth Chart]

Jay was injured when he was struck by a fastball from Nationals lefty Gio Gonzalez a week back. He has not played since, but initial x-rays were negative, leading to hopes that Jay would not even require a DL stint. The prognosis remains unknown at present, but it certainly seems the injury is much more serious than had been anticipated.

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While it’s wise not to jump to conclusions, this injury seems as if it could well take Jay out of the running as a trade piece this summer. With a reasonable $6.225MM salary, and no obligations after the year, he had seemed like a rather likely player to be dealt; indeed, he ranked 7th on MLBTR’s most recent list of the top trade candidates around the game.

Since coming over in exchange for infielder Jedd Gyorko over the winter, Jay had been a bright spot for a struggling Padres ballclub. Over 291 plate appearances, the 31-year-old was carrying a .296/.345/.407 batting line with two home runs and a league-leading 24 doubles. Defensive metrics were a bit down on his work in center in a short sample, but Jay has consistently rated as a quality up-the-middle defender over his career.

That strong start not only made Jay an interesting target for teams needing another solid outfielder, but seemed likely to set him up for a solid free agent payday after the season. He was coming off of a subpar, injury-marred 2015 season, but had returned to the solidly above-average offensive production that he has carried for most all of his time in the majors.

From the team’s perspective, losing Jay is the latest blow to its stock of trade assets. Two other prime candidates — righties Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner — both remain on the DL as the August 1st deadline draws near.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Padres Claim Paul Clemens

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The Padres have claimed righty Paul Clemens, Jon Heyman of todaysknuckleball.com reports on Twitter. The 28-year-old was evidently placed on waivers by the Marlins, for whom he had been pitching.

Clemens made two starts for Miami this year, throwing ten innings over which he allowed seven earned earns on 11 hits and eight walks against six strikeouts. He had spent most of the year at Triple-A, pitching to a 4.30 ERA with 7.9 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9 over 75 1/3 frames.

Knocking Down The Door: Bell, Berrios, Hedges, Judge, Stewart

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This week’s installment of “Knocking Down The Door” includes five homegrown players—two first-round picks, two second-round picks and one sixth-round pick—who are close to reaching the majors with the team that drafted and signed them to professional contracts.

Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates (Triple-A Indianapolis): Chad Kuhl’s solid MLB debut on Sunday should ease the calls for top pitching prospect Tyler Glasnow (13 IP, 0 R, 0 H over last two starts) to join the big league rotation, at least for this week. I’m not sure John Jaso’s doing enough (.619 OPS since May 29th) to hold off Bell much longer, though.

The 23-year-old first baseman has been a hitting machine during his ascent through the minors, and 2016 has been no different. Well, there has been one difference. He’s finally starting to show off some in-game home run power (11 HR in 74 games in 2016; 30 HR in 373 games from 2012-15) to go along with the high average (.321) and on-base percentage (.405), which should get the attention of a Pirates front office that isn’t known for quickly moving prospects up the ladder.

With a .356/.422/.644 slash line in June, the switch-hitting Bell has done more than enough to earn a spot with the Pirates and push Jaso into a bench role.

Pirates Depth Chart

Jose Berrios, SP, Minnesota Twins (Triple-A Rochester): It wasn’t a big surprise that Berrios earned an early promotion to the Majors in 2016. He dominated in Triple-A last season (2.85 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 9. K/9 in 12 starts) and is considered to be one of the best pitching prospects in the game. It also shouldn’t have been a surprise, however, that a 21-year-old struggled in the big leagues and was sent to Triple-A after four starts.

Now a 22-year-old with two more months of Triple-A experience under his belt, Berrios is making a strong case to rejoin the Twins’ rotation after tossing three-hit ball over eight shutout innings in his last start. It was the eighth time in 10 starts that he’s allowed two earned runs or less and seventh time he’s allowed three hits or less.

Left-hander Tommy Milone did not fare well in his return to the rotation last week, and Tyler Duffey was on the brink of a demotion before dominating the Yankees in his last start. I’m guessing we’ll see Berrios if either Milone or Duffey has a bad start this week.

Twins Depth Chart

Austin Hedges, C, San Diego Padres (Triple-A El Paso): It doesn’t matter if Hedges homers in 10 straight games — he’s actually halfway there right now — there isn’t a spot for him on the Major League roster until the Padres can trade Derek Norris, who has an .828 OPS in June and is under team control through 2018. Those numbers are attractive on the trade market.

Norris also has value to the Padres, but Hedges’ recent power surge (seven homers in nine games) is a reminder that they have a big league ready catcher down in Triple-A who many think can be an elite defender and is healthy after surgery in late April to repair a fractured hamate bone.

The Austin Hedges era should begin in San Diego very soon — no, last year’s big league stint when he sat on the bench and watched Norris play almost every day doesn’t count. It just won’t happen until the Derek Norris era ends.

Padres Depth Chart

Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees (Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre): If a hitter’s walk-to-strikeout ratio is an indicator of his readiness for the majors, then maybe Judge is getting very close.

After walking 16 times and striking out 56 times in April and May, the 24-year-old Judge must be unrecognizable at the plate with his June performance—he’s walked 17 times and struck out only 21 times. While some hitters sacrifice power with a more patient approach, Judge’s power has also increased (8 homers in June; 7 homers in April/May).

Right fielder Carlos Beltran has been the Yankees’ most productive hitter in June, but he’s also 39 years old and needs to start getting off his feet and into the designated hitter spot more often. That designated hitter spot is currently being occupied by 40-year-old Alex Rodriguez, who is not having a productive season. Add those two things up and Judge has a chance to be patrolling the Bronx outfield in the near future.

Yankees Depth Chart

Brock Stewart, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (Triple-A Oklahoma City): The Dodgers currently have an opening in their rotation and there is a chance that they go with a guy who started the season in High-A and hadn’t been considered much of a prospect.

Crazy, right? Not as crazy at how deserving the guy is. (Note: Apparently the Dodgers agree, as Stewart tweets that he has been called up.)

A 6th Round draft pick in 2014, Stewart had the misfortune of spending most of his first full pro season in the very hitter-friendly California League, where he posted a 5.43 ERA. He returned there to start 2016 and was rewarded/saved with a promotion after two good starts. The 24-year-old has not stopped dominating hitters since.

After cruising through Double-A with 1.12 ERA, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in nine starts, the right-hander has been brilliant in three Triple-A starts (2.89 ERA, 18.2 IP, 2 BB 27 K), including back-to-back 10-strikeout games. His next start could come in the majors on Wednesday.

Dodgers Depth Chart

“Knocking Down the Door” is a weekly feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.

Marlins Discussing Aroldis Chapman, Fernando Rodney

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The Marlins are known to be exploring the relief pitching market, and they’ve had internal discussions about both the Yankees’ Aroldis Chapman and the Padres’ Fernando Rodney, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney (in his latest subscription-only column).  It isn’t known if these discussions reflect genuine interest, as teams routinely go over many options in the leadup to the trade deadline.

There has been quite a bit of speculation about the Yankees trading at least one of Chapman, Andrew Miller or Dellin Betances should the team fall out of contention.  Chapman is a free agent this winter and moving Miller would free up some payroll room, though the controllable Betances would probably bring back the biggest return of the trio.  Some have argued that New York could deal from their uber-bullpen even if they’re still in the race, as they would still have a powerful end-game answer with just two of those excellent relievers, and trading the third would address needs in the rotation or lineup.  Still, it’s rather hard to see a contending Yankees team breaking up their dominant relief trio given how the rest of their bullpen has been unimpressive.

It’s much more likely that the Padres would explore deals for Rodney, given how San Diego is currently in the NL West basement.  Rodney has a microscopic 0.31 ERA through 28 2/3 innings, with 10.4 K/9 and a 2.75 K/BB rate.  Obviously some good fortune is involved in Rodney’s near-perfect season (such as a .210 BABIP and a 92.6% strand rate) but he is still posting fine numbers even by ERA-indicator standards: 2.29 FIP, 3.22 xFIP, 3.04 SIERA.  Rodney has generally been a good-to-great reliever since 2012 except for last season, when his early-season struggles led to a midseason release from the Mariners, though he regained some of his form against signing on with the Cubs late in the year.

The Marlins had some interest in Rodney last winter before he signed with the Padres, so it’s no surprise that they’re looking at him again in the wake of his successful year.  It’s also not hard to believe that Miami is discussing Chapman, as any team in need of a bullpen upgrade would given his excellent track record.

With a thin farm system and a lack of interest in dealing Major League parts, the Marlins could offer to take on salary to facilitate a trade, though neither Chapman or Rodney represent a big payroll outlay.  Chapman is owed approximately $5.75MM over the rest of the year while Rodney has only around $850K in base salary this year and at least $400K to buy out a $2MM club option for 2017 (though these numbers can rise rather significantly based on incentives).  I’d guess it unlikely that Jeffrey Loria approves enough of a payroll boost to absorb one of several albatross contracts cluttering both the New York and San Diego rosters, so there might not a trade fit unless the Marlins have a prospect or two that the Yankees or Padres particularly like.

Royals Interested In Jon Jay?

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  • While Valencia is a right-handed bat, Cafardo notes in another item that “the Royals seem to be in on every left-handed hitter.”  K.C. has posted middle-of-the-pack offensive statistics against righty pitching this year and is lacking in lineup balance, though the return of Alex Gordon from the DL should help on both counts.  Cafardo implies that Padres outfielder Jon Jay (a left-handed hitter) could be a Royals trade target.

    [SOURCE LINK]

MLBTR Roundtable: Trading Drew Pomeranz

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Drew Pomeranz has seen his name creep up in trade rumors over the past week, with various reports connecting him to the Marlins and the Orioles. As I recently did with Julio Teheran (see here and here) — another controllable pitcher that is drawing trade interest but needn’t necessarily be aggressively shopped by his team — I explored the cases for an against a Pomeranz trade yesterday. There’s no right or wrong answer to the debate, of course, and we at MLBTR apparently aren’t able to come to a consensus on the matter. Here’s the second edition of our MLBTR Roundtable series, in which I’ve asked everyone from our staff to weigh in on whether the Padres should hang onto Pomeranz or look to sell high on him this summer…

Tim Dierkes: The Padres should trade Drew Pomeranz this summer. Despite a 3.00 ERA at present, there are concerns. First, he’s walked 11.3% of batters faced this year. No qualified pitcher reached that level in 2015. Pomeranz has still been able to succeed because of a .254 batting average on balls in play, meaning hits aren’t dropping in. Assuming Pomeranz is not the next Chris Young, he can’t maintain that BABIP. Pomeranz’s current skill set will lead to high traffic on the bases and early hooks. Pomeranz is also a 27-year-old who has never reached 150 pro innings in his career and only reached 120 once, in 2012. He’ll be in uncharted waters in late August, and has two career DL stints for shoulder injuries. By trading Pomeranz now, the Padres have a chance to cash in an unreliable asset, however tantalizing this year’s strikeout rate may be. Verdict: Shop him.

Steve Adams: Pomeranz has been terrific this season, but he’s already approaching his innings total from the 2015 season and has never delivered a full season with a starter’s workload. I can’t say with any confidence that I expect him to throw even 170 innings this season, so I can certainly see the argument to sell high at this juncture. However, big league teams likely have similar concerns about his ability to hold up over the life of a full season, and as such he’s probably not going to command an otherworldly return. With such a weak crop of starters on the open market this winter, the Padres would be better off hanging onto Pomeranz and hoping his previous shoulder and biceps issues don’t resurface. Marketing him coming off a full season of strong innings would yield a significantly better return than trading him after 80-100 innings, and if the offers still aren’t great, there’s always next summer, when he’ll have one and a half years of control. I typically advocate for teams in the Padres’ shoes to be willing to part with virtually any player on the roster, but Pomeranz’s value is still rising. Selling too soon in this case is a larger risk to me than the risk of an arm injury or a rapid decline in performance. Verdict: Retain him.

Jeff Todd: I voted in favor of the Braves trading Julio Teheran, but I’m going to edge in the other direction here. It goes without saying that there’s a point at which the Pads should be willing to cut a deal, but I’m generally predisposed to holding here. That opinion is due in no small part to the fact that I expect other organizations to be conservative in valuing Pomeranz — both as a rental and as a long-term asset. ERA estimators take a more conservative view of his good work to date than his bottom-line results would suggest. Indeed, Pomeranz is delivering a mediocre walk rate while benefiting from some good fortune in the BABIP department. And it’s no secret that he lacks a track record as a quality and durable starter. Given that uncertainty, I’d like to see San Diego chase the upside here. While many have noted that Pomeranz relies heavily on his curve, which is true, he’s also increasingly using a change-up that gives him a new weapon against righties. Thus far, he has limited opposite-handed hitters to a .193/.277/.338 slash, which is significantly better than he has fared historically. If he can prove that he’s a mid-3 ERA starter and stay healthy for a full year, he’ll be a sparkling trade piece over the winter — when the rest of the league will be picking over a barren market of starters. (Or, if contention feels within reach, the Pads can hold onto him as a cheap, quality rotation piece of their own.) There’s risk, to be sure, but I think the chance at big-time surplus value is worth it. This just isn’t the same thing as holding onto a hurler who has already full established himself. Verdict: Retain him.

Mark Polishuk: The Padres’ big moves of the 2014-15 offseason have proven to be such a misfire that part of me feels that the club should just totally start over and trade everyone of value (Pomeranz included) for young talent.  Overall, however, I’m in the “keep Pomeranz” camp.  It wasn’t too long ago that he was considered a top prospect, and it’s probably no surprise that he’s gotten better and better the further he’s gotten from Coors Field (a.k.a. the worst possible place for a young pitcher to break into the majors).  Pomeranz has turned into an unexpected find for San Diego, and he comes at a bargain price for now and with substantial team control….unless another team goes overboard with an offer, the Padres should stand pat with him. Verdict: Retain him.

Charlie Wilmoth: I’d certainly consider trading Pomeranz if I were in A.J. Preller’s shoes, but would ultimately lean toward keeping him. Pomeranz isn’t eligible for free agency until after 2018, so there’s no rush to trade him. And while his performance thus far this season has been a bit better than his peripherals suggest, it hasn’t been wildly out of line either, and he should continue to perform well, health permitting. Next year’s crop of free agent starting pitchers is poor, so as long as Pomeranz stays healthy, the Padres should have further chances to reevaluate their situation and deal him later. Keeping him for now would also allow the Padres to prepare for the impending departures of Andrew Cashner (who can depart this winter) and Tyson Ross (who can leave after 2017). One could make some similar arguments about Julio Teheran, who I recently suggested the Braves should strongly consider trading, partially on the grounds that it’s risky for non-contending teams to hold on to established pitchers, who are at perpetual risk of injury. But Pomeranz is not as well established as a starter as Teheran, and therefore not as likely to net a big return. All things considered, then, the Padres should probably keep him for now. Verdict: Retain him.

Connor Byrne: The Padres are bottom dwellers now and they’re highly unlikely to contend before Pomeranz is scheduled for free agency at the end of the 2018 season, so it seems like a no-brainer to shop him this summer. Taking Pomeranz’s cheap 2016 price tag, remaining team control, performance and the paucity of front-end starters expected to go on the block over the next month into account, the Padres should be able to cash him in for a quality return. Plenty of playoff contenders need starters, so an inexpensive 27-year-old who’s top 25 in the majors in K/9, ERA, FIP, xFIP and infield fly rate (and gets an average amount of ground balls) should appeal to multiple clubs with rotation issues. There are questions with Pomeranz – durability, control problems and the fact that he’s succeeding with a knuckle curve as his primary pitch spring to mind – but it’s hard to believe those would scare off every starter-needy team from making a solid offer. If they do, then the Padres could retain Pomeranz and hope he continues increasing his value. There’s no harm in putting Pomeranz on the market prior to Aug. 1, though, and if rebuilding San Diego ultimately nets a package that helps augment its farm system, it would be a major win for the franchise. After acquiring Pomeranz for a pittance over the winter, the fact that the Padres are now in position to auction him off for a potentially appealing return is a boon for A.J. Preller – whose GM tenure is desperately in need of some positive results. Verdict: Shop him.

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With all of that said, let’s turn this one over to everyone else. Let the debate begin! (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

Braves GM John Coppolella Discusses Braves’ Rebuilding Efforts

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In a lengthy Twitter dialogue with fans today, Braves GM John Coppolella discussed a variety of interesting topics rather forthrightly. There’s plenty to chew on here (all links on the chat are to Twitter):

  • Starter Julio Teheran has drawn quite a bit of attention as a possible trade candidate; as I noted recently in ranking him amongst the 15 top trade candidates, the team could conceivably cut a deal in a market that could be short of quality rotation pieces. MLBTR has examined that matter from both sides recently (see here and here). But the GM didn’t seem to think that was a compelling concept. “I don’t see us trading Teheran at this point,” said Coppolella. “He’s almost into ’right-arm’ type status for us right now.”
  • That last note was a reference to his now-famous comment about the unavailability of first baseman Freddie Freeman. It seems that other clubs have received the message loud and clear, as Coppolella says that he has not received any recent trade inquiries on the young slugger.
  • The long-term catching situations remains a “big need” that the Braves will look at in free agency, says the Atlanta point-man. It certainly promises to be an interesting area to watch this winter, with players like Wilson Ramos, Matt Wieters, and Jason Castro among the soon-to-be free agents. (And if you’re curious: yes, the Braves would have interest in injured Cubs backstop Kyle Schwarber; but no, it’s not expected he’ll be available.)
  • More generally, the team’s “primary objective” over the winter will be to improve upon a marginal offensive unit, he said. As he seeks to accomplish that, the organization expects to put its various financial improvements to work to “invest in the team,” he said. Atlanta “will have more money to spend this off season than in any of the 10 years I’ve been here,” per Coppolella. He also suggested that the Braves will be increasingly willing to deal prospects for controllable, MLB-level players.
  • Big offensive numbers had been the hope when Atlanta acquired Hector Olivera last summer. Instead, that deal has long been a source of frustration for Braves fans, and Coppolella says he agrees with the concern. It was a “bad trade for us and one that I wish we had back,” he said, adding that “all we can do is learn from it and move forward.”
  • If you’re looking for specific possibilities to find a big bat, it appears there’s at least one name on the wish list and another that can be crossed off. Coppolella says he has contacted Padres GM A.J. Preller “multiple times” to inquire about slugger Wil Myers, though obviously nothing has come to fruition as of yet. He is apparently less intrigued by veteran Cuban star Yulieski Gurriel, however, as the club does not intend to pursue him.
  • For a bit of intrigue, Coppolella suggested that there is plenty of trade chatter going on. He says that he spoke with a dozen general managers from rival clubs yesterday and even hinted that there’s a possible trade in the works as we speak (though he noted it certainly may not come to fruition).

Padres Drawing Interest In Jon Jay, Fernando Rodney

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  • Derek Norris is available on the trade market, but the Padres players receiving the most interest at this time are Jon Jay and Fernando Rodney, per Heyman. He adds that the Padres are open to trading anyone, but an early deal for Wil Myers shouldn’t be expected due to the fact that he’s the team’s official All-Star Game ambassador in San Diego this season. Beyond that, a “Padres-connected” source told Heyman the team would expect four top-tier prospects to part with the controllable Myers, who is having a breakout season at the plate.

The Cases For And Against A Drew Pomeranz Trade

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The Padres’ two-year push to contend in the National League West hasn’t panned out as the new ownership and front office groups had hoped, and the Friars have already begun to sell off pieces (James Shields) with plenty of rumors swirling around virtually every other player on the roster. While Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner were thought to be the team’s top two trade chips in the rotation heading into the season, though, it’s been left-hander Drew Pomeranz that has had generated the most trade buzz as of late. The former No. 5 overall pick is in the midst of a breakout season, having pitched to a 3.00 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate. His 3.44 FIP and 3.64 xFIP are both within the Top 25 among all MLB starters, and SIERA rates him 31st — just ahead of Zack Greinke and just behind the likes of Masahiro Tanaka, Kenta Maeda and Taijuan Walker.

Suffice it to say, Pomeranz has been one of the better starters in all of baseball this season, and as such the Padres should be able to fetch a much stronger return than the package they parted with to acquire him (Yonder Alonso, Marc Rzepczynski). Still, it’s not entirely clear that the Padres should be open to moving him at all. Let’s look at the issue from both angles.

The Case For Trading Drew Pomeranz

Simply put, the Padres aren’t a good team in 2016. Moreover, they don’t have an especially strong farm system. The Padres added some talent to their ranks with last season’s Craig Kimbrel trade, and they had one of the largest pools in this year’s amateur draft as well. Beyond that, they’re rumored to be gearing up for a hyper-aggressive run on the international prospect scene when the 2016-17 signing period kicks off on July 2. General manager A.J. Preller and his staff are in talent acquisition mode, and marketing Pomeranz — a former top draft pick and top prospect with two years of team control beyond 2016 — could further bolster their minor league system.

Drew Pomeranz

Pomeranz, after all, is earning just $1.35MM after his first trip through the arbitration process due to the fact that his pre-arb seasons consisted of struggles with the Rockies at Coors Field and success in a limited role in Oakland, where he served as a swingman. That price means that any team can afford to add him to its books, and it also figures to suppress his earning power for his second and third trips through the arbitration process. Pomeranz’s pedigree, low salary and remaining control should all make him appealing to clubs in search of pitching, and we’ve already seen the Orioles and Marlins linked to him this week alone.

Advocates of a Pomeranz trade for the Padres could consider this to be selling high. He’s already nearly matched his innings total from 2015, he’s spent time on the disabled list in the past with shoulder and biceps problems, and as the team has learned with Ross this season, waiting to move a pitcher with injury concerns can have a disastrous outcome. Ross has still only pitched in one game with the Padres this season. A healthy Ross would be among the most in-demand chips on the summer market, but the Padres would be selling him for pennies on the dollar right now. Cashing in while Pomeranz is healthy and performing well has its merits, to be sure.

The Case Against Trading Drew Pomeranz

Those same concerns surrounding Pomeranz’s injuries and workload could limit other teams’ willingness to part with top-tier talent to acquire him, however. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune recently spoke to a few scouts about Pomeranz and one NL scout suggested that the lefty would fetch a “limited return” due to skepticism surrounding his lack of a track record. While that’s just one scout’s opinion, of course, it speaks to the fact that there are those in the game that aren’t necessarily sold on Pomeranz as a concrete option to fortify the top half of a rotation.

The fact that he’s controllable through 2018, too, means that the Padres don’t need to be in a rush to trade him. Even if Pomeranz gets hurt in August, he’d have plenty of time to reestablish value in the first half of the 2017 season. And, if he’s able to remain healthy and productive, his value will only grow. There’s a complete dearth of quality arms available in free agency this winter, and it’s certainly not a stretch to say that the Padres could get a greater return if they’re marketing a full season of strong work from Pomeranz in a barren pitching market than they could by marketing half a season of strong innings. Trading him next summer could create even greater value if Pomeranz can sustain his breakout pace, as he’d still come with one and a half years of control at a reasonable salary.

Additionally, the Padres simply need quality arms for the foreseeable future in their rotation. San Diego isn’t teeming with quality rotation options. Ross is a question mark at this point, and lefty Robbie Erlin was lost to Tommy John surgery earlier this year, making him an unknown in 2017 as well. Cashner is a free agent in three months’ time and may or may not return. Beyond Pomeranz and Ross, the Padres’ rotation options in 2017 include Colin Rea, Erik Johnson, Christian Friedrich, Cesar Vargas, Rule 5 pick Luis Perdomo and perhaps Brandon Maurer if San Diego again wants to experiment with him as a starter. There are some additional options at Triple-A (e.g. Michael Kelly, Bryan Rodriguez), as shown on the Padres’ depth chart, but all of the starters ranked among the Padres’ Top 30 prospects at MLB.com come with an ETA of at least 2018 — and many aren’t projected to factor into the Majors until 2019.

Orioles Interested In Pomeranz, Liriano

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The Orioles have deployed an all-right-handed rotation this season — a top-heavy one, at that — and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that they’re interested in acquiring a left-handed arm to help balance it out. Among the names in which Baltimore has shown interest are San Diego’s Drew Pomeranz and Pittsburgh’s Francisco Liriano, according to Morosi.

Baltimore’s need for rotation help is clear. The O’s have a narrow lead in the American League East (one game ahead of Boston, two ahead of Toronto), but Chris Tillman is their lone starter with an ERA south of 4.00. In fact, Kevin Gausman (4.37) and Tyler Wilson (4.57 as a starter) are the only other two pitchers that have started a game for Baltimore this season and presently own an ERA under 5.00. Non-Tillman starters for the Orioles have posted a collective 5.53 ERA. The Orioles have an excellent bullpen, but their relievers’ 237 1/3 innings are currently the 10th-most in all of Major League Baseball, and eight of the nine teams whose bullpens have posted higher innings totals have sub-.500 records. Rarely can contending teams rely this heavily on their relief corps.

Pomeranz has been an oft-mentioned trade candidate over the past few weeks as it’s become more and more clear that the Padres will be sellers on the summer trade market, but Liriano’s name hasn’t been mentioned much to date. Of course, there are multiple reasons for that. Firstly, while the Bucs have underwhelmed this season, they’re still just three games under .500 and 4.5 games back from a Wild Card spot in the National League. It is in no way clear that they’ll entertain selling off pieces of their big league roster this summer, and Morosi adds that GM Neal Huntington recently told MLB.com that his focus remains on winning in 2016.

Secondly, Liriano simply isn’t performing well in 2016 and is owed another $20.25MM through the end of the 2017 season as of this writing ($7.25MM for the duration of ’16 and $13MM in ’17). Liriano was terrific for the Bucs from 2013-15, posting a 3.26 ERA with 543 strikeouts against 214 walks in 518 innings out of the rotation. However, his old control problems have resurfaced in 2016, as he’s averaged 5.6 walks per nine innings (including tonight’s start) en route to a 5.17 ERA. Liriano is still averaging better than a strikeout per inning, and his velocity is holding steady (92.3 mph average fastball), but in addition to his glut of free passes he’s been exceptionally homer-prone.

Pomeranz, meanwhile, is a more plausible trade candidate, but the Padres needn’t feel motivated to deal him. Unlike many summer trade candidates, Pomeranz is controlled for multiple years beyond the 2016 season; San Diego can keep him through at least 2018 by way of arbitration, and the fact that he’s only now in the midst of a breakout season at age 27 has suppressed his arbitration earnings to date. Pomeranz is earning $1.35MM as a first-time arbitration-eligible player, but he’s pitched like a top-tier starter for an otherwise dismal Padres staff. In a team-leading 81 innings this season, the former No. 5 overall draft pick has posted a 3.00 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate.

Certainly, there’s reason to approach Pomeranz’s success with some degree of caution. The former top pick, like many before him, posted dreadful numbers at Coors Field for the first three seasons of his career before being flipped to the A’s. Pomeranz posted solid numbers in Oakland, but he did so as more of a swingman than a regular member of the Athletics’ rotation. He’s never topped 147 innings in a single season (combined between the Majors and minors), and he hasn’t even climbed that high since 2012. He also battled a shoulder injury last season and dealt with a biceps injury back in 2013. Pomeranz figures to surpass his 2015 innings total the next time he starts for San Diego, and how well his arm can hold up over the life of a full season’s worth of innings remains to be seen.

Nevertheless, he’s an intriguing asset whose stock is on the rise while playing for a last-place club with an aggressive general manager and front office in place, so the debate of whether he should be traded or retained figures to be one of the more interesting topics as the non-waiver trade deadline draws nearer. Pomeranz has already been connected to the O’s and Marlins this week alone, and other suitors figure to line up in the weeks to come.

The other piece of the equation in this scenario is whether the O’s have the necessary talent to acquire either of these arms (or another rotation upgrade). Entering the season, Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law pegged the Orioles as having the game’s fourth-worst farm system. That’s not to say that the O’s don’t have appealing players, but the lack of depth in their system will allow other teams ample opportunity to offer superior packages in trade talks.

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