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Cafardo’s Latest: Valencia, Royals, Liriano, Melancon, Santana

By Mark Polishuk | June 26, 2016 at 9:29am CDT

Here’s the latest hot stove buzz from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe…

  • The Royals and Indians are among the teams looking at Athletics third baseman Danny Valencia.  Kansas City has a void at third base with Mike Moustakas out for the season, and Valencia is a known quantity, having played for the team in 2014.  The Tribe have also received below-replacement level production at the hot corner all season, though Jose Ramirez has played well splitting time between third and left field.  Valencia could perhaps be a better fit for Cleveland in left given his rough defensive metrics (-13 Defensive Runs Saved, -26.9 UZR.150) at third base this season, though his bat certainly plays for either the Indians or Royals.  Valencia is hitting .333/.381/.552 with 11 homers over 218 PA for the A’s, though that comes with the caveat of a .373 BABIP.  The Mets are another team known to have interest in Valencia, though their subsequent signing of Jose Reyes may have addressed their infield needs.
  • While Valencia is a right-handed bat, Cafardo notes in another item that “the Royals seem to be in on every left-handed hitter.”  K.C. has posted middle-of-the-pack offensive statistics against righty pitching this year and is lacking in lineup balance, though the return of Alex Gordon from the DL should help on both counts.  Cafardo implies that Padres outfielder Jon Jay (a left-handed hitter) could be a Royals trade target.
  • The Marlins “possibly” have interest in Pirates southpaw Francisco Liriano.  The lefty is having a down year, though the Fish could see Liriano as an answer to their pitching search due to the presence of Miami VP of pitching development Jim Benedict (who was credited with getting Liriano on track when the two were in Pittsburgh).
  • Speaking of Pirates arms, closer Mark Melancon is also drawing attention from teams in need of bullpen help.  Cafardo cites the Astros, Giants, Mets and Red Sox as teams who could be potential fits.  Melancon is a free agent at the end of the season and thus could be a logical trade candidate if the Bucs decide to become deadline sellers.  Melancon has a 1.53 ERA through 29 1/3 IP this season, though advanced metrics indicate that this is the weakest of his four seasons as a Pirates.  Melancon has a 2.93 FIP, 4.18 xFIP and 3.88 SIERA, while experiencing drops in his strikeout and grounder rates (and an increase in BB/9).
  • Ervin Santana “is seen as perhaps the most viable trade deadline pickup on the market,” with one AL assistant GM describing the Twins veteran as “the one guy out there who could be a sure thing in the middle of the rotation.”  Santana has a 4.64 ERA, 6.37 K/9 and 2.39 K/BB rate over 77 2/3 innings this season, with ERA indicators backing up his unimpressive ERA.  I would guess Minnesota would have to eat a fair amount of money in a Santana trade, as the righty is owed roughly $33.8MM through the 2018 season (plus a $14MM club/vesting option for 2019).
  • Even a mid-tier arm like Santana could draw trade interest, however, as Cafardo predicts that little pitching will be available at the deadline.  Teams may focus more on offense, and Cafardo lists 15 position players who could be targeted as we approach August 1.  Many of the names have already cropped up in trade rumors, though Cafardo speculates that some unlikely names as Joe Mauer or Khris Davis could also get some attention.
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Cleveland Guardians Kansas City Royals Miami Marlins Minnesota Twins Oakland Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Danny Valencia Ervin Santana Francisco Liriano Jon Jay Mark Melancon

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MLBTR Roundtable: Trading Drew Pomeranz

By Steve Adams | June 24, 2016 at 11:04pm CDT

Drew Pomeranz has seen his name creep up in trade rumors over the past week, with various reports connecting him to the Marlins and the Orioles. As I recently did with Julio Teheran (see here and here) — another controllable pitcher that is drawing trade interest but needn’t necessarily be aggressively shopped by his team — I explored the cases for an against a Pomeranz trade yesterday. There’s no right or wrong answer to the debate, of course, and we at MLBTR apparently aren’t able to come to a consensus on the matter. Here’s the second edition of our MLBTR Roundtable series, in which I’ve asked everyone from our staff to weigh in on whether the Padres should hang onto Pomeranz or look to sell high on him this summer…

Tim Dierkes: The Padres should trade Drew Pomeranz this summer. Despite a 3.00 ERA at present, there are concerns. First, he’s walked 11.3% of batters faced this year. No qualified pitcher reached that level in 2015. Pomeranz has still been able to succeed because of a .254 batting average on balls in play, meaning hits aren’t dropping in. Assuming Pomeranz is not the next Chris Young, he can’t maintain that BABIP. Pomeranz’s current skill set will lead to high traffic on the bases and early hooks. Pomeranz is also a 27-year-old who has never reached 150 pro innings in his career and only reached 120 once, in 2012. He’ll be in uncharted waters in late August, and has two career DL stints for shoulder injuries. By trading Pomeranz now, the Padres have a chance to cash in an unreliable asset, however tantalizing this year’s strikeout rate may be. Verdict: Shop him.

Steve Adams: Pomeranz has been terrific this season, but he’s already approaching his innings total from the 2015 season and has never delivered a full season with a starter’s workload. I can’t say with any confidence that I expect him to throw even 170 innings this season, so I can certainly see the argument to sell high at this juncture. However, big league teams likely have similar concerns about his ability to hold up over the life of a full season, and as such he’s probably not going to command an otherworldly return. With such a weak crop of starters on the open market this winter, the Padres would be better off hanging onto Pomeranz and hoping his previous shoulder and biceps issues don’t resurface. Marketing him coming off a full season of strong innings would yield a significantly better return than trading him after 80-100 innings, and if the offers still aren’t great, there’s always next summer, when he’ll have one and a half years of control. I typically advocate for teams in the Padres’ shoes to be willing to part with virtually any player on the roster, but Pomeranz’s value is still rising. Selling too soon in this case is a larger risk to me than the risk of an arm injury or a rapid decline in performance. Verdict: Retain him.

Jeff Todd: I voted in favor of the Braves trading Julio Teheran, but I’m going to edge in the other direction here. It goes without saying that there’s a point at which the Pads should be willing to cut a deal, but I’m generally predisposed to holding here. That opinion is due in no small part to the fact that I expect other organizations to be conservative in valuing Pomeranz — both as a rental and as a long-term asset. ERA estimators take a more conservative view of his good work to date than his bottom-line results would suggest. Indeed, Pomeranz is delivering a mediocre walk rate while benefiting from some good fortune in the BABIP department. And it’s no secret that he lacks a track record as a quality and durable starter. Given that uncertainty, I’d like to see San Diego chase the upside here. While many have noted that Pomeranz relies heavily on his curve, which is true, he’s also increasingly using a change-up that gives him a new weapon against righties. Thus far, he has limited opposite-handed hitters to a .193/.277/.338 slash, which is significantly better than he has fared historically. If he can prove that he’s a mid-3 ERA starter and stay healthy for a full year, he’ll be a sparkling trade piece over the winter — when the rest of the league will be picking over a barren market of starters. (Or, if contention feels within reach, the Pads can hold onto him as a cheap, quality rotation piece of their own.) There’s risk, to be sure, but I think the chance at big-time surplus value is worth it. This just isn’t the same thing as holding onto a hurler who has already full established himself. Verdict: Retain him.

Mark Polishuk: The Padres’ big moves of the 2014-15 offseason have proven to be such a misfire that part of me feels that the club should just totally start over and trade everyone of value (Pomeranz included) for young talent.  Overall, however, I’m in the “keep Pomeranz” camp.  It wasn’t too long ago that he was considered a top prospect, and it’s probably no surprise that he’s gotten better and better the further he’s gotten from Coors Field (a.k.a. the worst possible place for a young pitcher to break into the majors).  Pomeranz has turned into an unexpected find for San Diego, and he comes at a bargain price for now and with substantial team control….unless another team goes overboard with an offer, the Padres should stand pat with him. Verdict: Retain him.

Charlie Wilmoth: I’d certainly consider trading Pomeranz if I were in A.J. Preller’s shoes, but would ultimately lean toward keeping him. Pomeranz isn’t eligible for free agency until after 2018, so there’s no rush to trade him. And while his performance thus far this season has been a bit better than his peripherals suggest, it hasn’t been wildly out of line either, and he should continue to perform well, health permitting. Next year’s crop of free agent starting pitchers is poor, so as long as Pomeranz stays healthy, the Padres should have further chances to reevaluate their situation and deal him later. Keeping him for now would also allow the Padres to prepare for the impending departures of Andrew Cashner (who can depart this winter) and Tyson Ross (who can leave after 2017). One could make some similar arguments about Julio Teheran, who I recently suggested the Braves should strongly consider trading, partially on the grounds that it’s risky for non-contending teams to hold on to established pitchers, who are at perpetual risk of injury. But Pomeranz is not as well established as a starter as Teheran, and therefore not as likely to net a big return. All things considered, then, the Padres should probably keep him for now. Verdict: Retain him.

Connor Byrne: The Padres are bottom dwellers now and they’re highly unlikely to contend before Pomeranz is scheduled for free agency at the end of the 2018 season, so it seems like a no-brainer to shop him this summer. Taking Pomeranz’s cheap 2016 price tag, remaining team control, performance and the paucity of front-end starters expected to go on the block over the next month into account, the Padres should be able to cash him in for a quality return. Plenty of playoff contenders need starters, so an inexpensive 27-year-old who’s top 25 in the majors in K/9, ERA, FIP, xFIP and infield fly rate (and gets an average amount of ground balls) should appeal to multiple clubs with rotation issues. There are questions with Pomeranz – durability, control problems and the fact that he’s succeeding with a knuckle curve as his primary pitch spring to mind – but it’s hard to believe those would scare off every starter-needy team from making a solid offer. If they do, then the Padres could retain Pomeranz and hope he continues increasing his value. There’s no harm in putting Pomeranz on the market prior to Aug. 1, though, and if rebuilding San Diego ultimately nets a package that helps augment its farm system, it would be a major win for the franchise. After acquiring Pomeranz for a pittance over the winter, the fact that the Padres are now in position to auction him off for a potentially appealing return is a boon for A.J. Preller – whose GM tenure is desperately in need of some positive results. Verdict: Shop him.

—

With all of that said, let’s turn this one over to everyone else. Let the debate begin! (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Roundtable San Diego Padres Drew Pomeranz

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Braves GM John Coppolella Discusses Braves’ Rebuilding Efforts

By Jeff Todd | June 24, 2016 at 4:51pm CDT

In a lengthy Twitter dialogue with fans today, Braves GM John Coppolella discussed a variety of interesting topics rather forthrightly. There’s plenty to chew on here (all links on the chat are to Twitter):

  • Starter Julio Teheran has drawn quite a bit of attention as a possible trade candidate; as I noted recently in ranking him amongst the 15 top trade candidates, the team could conceivably cut a deal in a market that could be short of quality rotation pieces. MLBTR has examined that matter from both sides recently (see here and here). But the GM didn’t seem to think that was a compelling concept. “I don’t see us trading Teheran at this point,” said Coppolella. “He’s almost into ’right-arm’ type status for us right now.”
  • That last note was a reference to his now-famous comment about the unavailability of first baseman Freddie Freeman. It seems that other clubs have received the message loud and clear, as Coppolella says that he has not received any recent trade inquiries on the young slugger.
  • The long-term catching situations remains a “big need” that the Braves will look at in free agency, says the Atlanta point-man. It certainly promises to be an interesting area to watch this winter, with players like Wilson Ramos, Matt Wieters, and Jason Castro among the soon-to-be free agents. (And if you’re curious: yes, the Braves would have interest in injured Cubs backstop Kyle Schwarber; but no, it’s not expected he’ll be available.)
  • More generally, the team’s “primary objective” over the winter will be to improve upon a marginal offensive unit, he said. As he seeks to accomplish that, the organization expects to put its various financial improvements to work to “invest in the team,” he said. Atlanta “will have more money to spend this off season than in any of the 10 years I’ve been here,” per Coppolella. He also suggested that the Braves will be increasingly willing to deal prospects for controllable, MLB-level players.
  • Big offensive numbers had been the hope when Atlanta acquired Hector Olivera last summer. Instead, that deal has long been a source of frustration for Braves fans, and Coppolella says he agrees with the concern. It was a “bad trade for us and one that I wish we had back,” he said, adding that “all we can do is learn from it and move forward.”
  • If you’re looking for specific possibilities to find a big bat, it appears there’s at least one name on the wish list and another that can be crossed off. Coppolella says he has contacted Padres GM A.J. Preller “multiple times” to inquire about slugger Wil Myers, though obviously nothing has come to fruition as of yet. He is apparently less intrigued by veteran Cuban star Yulieski Gurriel, however, as the club does not intend to pursue him.
  • For a bit of intrigue, Coppolella suggested that there is plenty of trade chatter going on. He says that he spoke with a dozen general managers from rival clubs yesterday and even hinted that there’s a possible trade in the works as we speak (though he noted it certainly may not come to fruition).
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Atlanta Braves Chicago Cubs San Diego Padres Freddie Freeman Hector Olivera John Coppolella Julio Teheran Kyle Schwarber Wil Myers

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Heyman’s Latest: Vizcaino, Outfield Market, Chapman, Padres

By Steve Adams and Jeff Todd | June 23, 2016 at 11:23pm CDT

Jon Heyman of todaysknuckleball.com has another lengthy report full of trade rumors and rumblings. Among the highlights:

  • Closer Arodys Vizcaino is drawing “intense” interest and is receiving more attention on the trade market than any other Braves player, according to Heyman. A high level of interest in Vizcaino should come as no surprise; the 25-year-old boasts a 1.83 ERA dating back to Opening Day 2015 and is earning just $897,500 this season after avoiding arbitration for the first time as a Super Two player this past winter. He can be controlled through the 2019 season, so the Braves would assuredly have a considerable asking price for three and a half years of Vizcaino.
  • The Indians continue to monitor the market for outfield help, and they’re also in the market for some bullpen reinforcements, though they have competition on that front. The health of Michael Brantley will impact how aggressive Cleveland is in its search for outfielders, though there’s yet to be any definitive word on how long Brantley will be sidelined.
  • The Royals, too, are on the lookout for outfield help, and Heyman lists Jon Jay and Melvin Upton Jr. as possibilities, though he does so in a fairly speculative manner. Heyman further splashes some cold water on the Yordano Ventura trade rumors from earlier this month, quoting an anonymous Royals exec: “With starting pitching at a premium, of course we aren’t trading him.”
  • Aroldis Chapman’s name continues to come up in speculation, but Heyman writes that the Yankees haven’t ruled out signing the lefty to an extension as opposed to entertaining trade offers. Heyman adds that the Yankees have yet to even have internal discussions about selling off parts of their MLB roster.
  • If the Athletics end up selling — which they aren’t yet prepared to do — the team will consider anything, per Heyman. But GM Billy Beane is least interested in parting with Sonny Gray and Sean Doolittle, both of whom come with extended, cheap control.
  • Across the bay, the Giants are still willing to consider acquiring a starting-level outfielder even though Hunter Pence appears on track to return before the end of August. The idea would be to move Angel Pagan into a reserve role, it seems.
  • Derek Norris is available on the trade market, but the Padres players receiving the most interest at this time are Jon Jay and Fernando Rodney, per Heyman. He adds that the Padres are open to trading anyone, but an early deal for Wil Myers shouldn’t be expected due to the fact that he’s the team’s official All-Star Game ambassador in San Diego this season. Beyond that, a “Padres-connected” source told Heyman the team would expect four top-tier prospects to part with the controllable Myers, who is having a breakout season at the plate.
  • The Mariners are set to shop for starting pitching this summer, per Heyman, though they could also aim for relief help. It’s not unusual for depth issues to creep up in a pitching staff, but Seattle is probably less than enthused with the fact that Felix Hernandez is now in the midst of an extended DL stint after a less-than-promising start to the season (despite his strong results).
  • Multiple clubs are trying to buy low on Francisco Liriano, but the Pirates aren’t inclined to sell at this time. The Orioles, it appears, are one such team, as MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reported yesterday that Baltimore has interest in the underperforming southpaw.
  • The Angels “are officially out” on Cuban third baseman Yulieski Gurriel, according to Heyman. The 32-year-old figures to command a significant multi-year deal, and adding another eight-figure average annual salary to the ledger would severely impede the Halos’ ability to avoid continual luxury tax penalization. Heyman also notes that Tim Lincecum could eventually become trade bait for the Angels if the team continue to struggle and if Lincecum performs well.
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Atlanta Braves Cleveland Guardians Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Angels New York Yankees Oakland Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners Arodys Vizcaino Aroldis Chapman Derek Norris Fernando Rodney Francisco Liriano Jon Jay Melvin Upton Sean Doolittle Sonny Gray Tim Lincecum Wil Myers Yordano Ventura

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The Cases For And Against A Drew Pomeranz Trade

By Steve Adams | June 23, 2016 at 4:05pm CDT

The Padres’ two-year push to contend in the National League West hasn’t panned out as the new ownership and front office groups had hoped, and the Friars have already begun to sell off pieces (James Shields) with plenty of rumors swirling around virtually every other player on the roster. While Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner were thought to be the team’s top two trade chips in the rotation heading into the season, though, it’s been left-hander Drew Pomeranz that has had generated the most trade buzz as of late. The former No. 5 overall pick is in the midst of a breakout season, having pitched to a 3.00 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate. His 3.44 FIP and 3.64 xFIP are both within the Top 25 among all MLB starters, and SIERA rates him 31st — just ahead of Zack Greinke and just behind the likes of Masahiro Tanaka, Kenta Maeda and Taijuan Walker.

Suffice it to say, Pomeranz has been one of the better starters in all of baseball this season, and as such the Padres should be able to fetch a much stronger return than the package they parted with to acquire him (Yonder Alonso, Marc Rzepczynski). Still, it’s not entirely clear that the Padres should be open to moving him at all. Let’s look at the issue from both angles.

The Case For Trading Drew Pomeranz

Simply put, the Padres aren’t a good team in 2016. Moreover, they don’t have an especially strong farm system. The Padres added some talent to their ranks with last season’s Craig Kimbrel trade, and they had one of the largest pools in this year’s amateur draft as well. Beyond that, they’re rumored to be gearing up for a hyper-aggressive run on the international prospect scene when the 2016-17 signing period kicks off on July 2. General manager A.J. Preller and his staff are in talent acquisition mode, and marketing Pomeranz — a former top draft pick and top prospect with two years of team control beyond 2016 — could further bolster their minor league system.

Drew Pomeranz

Pomeranz, after all, is earning just $1.35MM after his first trip through the arbitration process due to the fact that his pre-arb seasons consisted of struggles with the Rockies at Coors Field and success in a limited role in Oakland, where he served as a swingman. That price means that any team can afford to add him to its books, and it also figures to suppress his earning power for his second and third trips through the arbitration process. Pomeranz’s pedigree, low salary and remaining control should all make him appealing to clubs in search of pitching, and we’ve already seen the Orioles and Marlins linked to him this week alone.

Advocates of a Pomeranz trade for the Padres could consider this to be selling high. He’s already nearly matched his innings total from 2015, he’s spent time on the disabled list in the past with shoulder and biceps problems, and as the team has learned with Ross this season, waiting to move a pitcher with injury concerns can have a disastrous outcome. Ross has still only pitched in one game with the Padres this season. A healthy Ross would be among the most in-demand chips on the summer market, but the Padres would be selling him for pennies on the dollar right now. Cashing in while Pomeranz is healthy and performing well has its merits, to be sure.

The Case Against Trading Drew Pomeranz

Those same concerns surrounding Pomeranz’s injuries and workload could limit other teams’ willingness to part with top-tier talent to acquire him, however. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune recently spoke to a few scouts about Pomeranz and one NL scout suggested that the lefty would fetch a “limited return” due to skepticism surrounding his lack of a track record. While that’s just one scout’s opinion, of course, it speaks to the fact that there are those in the game that aren’t necessarily sold on Pomeranz as a concrete option to fortify the top half of a rotation.

The fact that he’s controllable through 2018, too, means that the Padres don’t need to be in a rush to trade him. Even if Pomeranz gets hurt in August, he’d have plenty of time to reestablish value in the first half of the 2017 season. And, if he’s able to remain healthy and productive, his value will only grow. There’s a complete dearth of quality arms available in free agency this winter, and it’s certainly not a stretch to say that the Padres could get a greater return if they’re marketing a full season of strong work from Pomeranz in a barren pitching market than they could by marketing half a season of strong innings. Trading him next summer could create even greater value if Pomeranz can sustain his breakout pace, as he’d still come with one and a half years of control at a reasonable salary.

Additionally, the Padres simply need quality arms for the foreseeable future in their rotation. San Diego isn’t teeming with quality rotation options. Ross is a question mark at this point, and lefty Robbie Erlin was lost to Tommy John surgery earlier this year, making him an unknown in 2017 as well. Cashner is a free agent in three months’ time and may or may not return. Beyond Pomeranz and Ross, the Padres’ rotation options in 2017 include Colin Rea, Erik Johnson, Christian Friedrich, Cesar Vargas, Rule 5 pick Luis Perdomo and perhaps Brandon Maurer if San Diego again wants to experiment with him as a starter. There are some additional options at Triple-A (e.g. Michael Kelly, Bryan Rodriguez), as shown on the Padres’ depth chart, but all of the starters ranked among the Padres’ Top 30 prospects at MLB.com come with an ETA of at least 2018 — and many aren’t projected to factor into the Majors until 2019.

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MLBTR Originals San Diego Padres Drew Pomeranz

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Orioles Interested In Pomeranz, Liriano

By Steve Adams | June 22, 2016 at 11:35pm CDT

The Orioles have deployed an all-right-handed rotation this season — a top-heavy one, at that — and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that they’re interested in acquiring a left-handed arm to help balance it out. Among the names in which Baltimore has shown interest are San Diego’s Drew Pomeranz and Pittsburgh’s Francisco Liriano, according to Morosi.

Baltimore’s need for rotation help is clear. The O’s have a narrow lead in the American League East (one game ahead of Boston, two ahead of Toronto), but Chris Tillman is their lone starter with an ERA south of 4.00. In fact, Kevin Gausman (4.37) and Tyler Wilson (4.57 as a starter) are the only other two pitchers that have started a game for Baltimore this season and presently own an ERA under 5.00. Non-Tillman starters for the Orioles have posted a collective 5.53 ERA. The Orioles have an excellent bullpen, but their relievers’ 237 1/3 innings are currently the 10th-most in all of Major League Baseball, and eight of the nine teams whose bullpens have posted higher innings totals have sub-.500 records. Rarely can contending teams rely this heavily on their relief corps.

Pomeranz has been an oft-mentioned trade candidate over the past few weeks as it’s become more and more clear that the Padres will be sellers on the summer trade market, but Liriano’s name hasn’t been mentioned much to date. Of course, there are multiple reasons for that. Firstly, while the Bucs have underwhelmed this season, they’re still just three games under .500 and 4.5 games back from a Wild Card spot in the National League. It is in no way clear that they’ll entertain selling off pieces of their big league roster this summer, and Morosi adds that GM Neal Huntington recently told MLB.com that his focus remains on winning in 2016.

Secondly, Liriano simply isn’t performing well in 2016 and is owed another $20.25MM through the end of the 2017 season as of this writing ($7.25MM for the duration of ’16 and $13MM in ’17). Liriano was terrific for the Bucs from 2013-15, posting a 3.26 ERA with 543 strikeouts against 214 walks in 518 innings out of the rotation. However, his old control problems have resurfaced in 2016, as he’s averaged 5.6 walks per nine innings (including tonight’s start) en route to a 5.17 ERA. Liriano is still averaging better than a strikeout per inning, and his velocity is holding steady (92.3 mph average fastball), but in addition to his glut of free passes he’s been exceptionally homer-prone.

Pomeranz, meanwhile, is a more plausible trade candidate, but the Padres needn’t feel motivated to deal him. Unlike many summer trade candidates, Pomeranz is controlled for multiple years beyond the 2016 season; San Diego can keep him through at least 2018 by way of arbitration, and the fact that he’s only now in the midst of a breakout season at age 27 has suppressed his arbitration earnings to date. Pomeranz is earning $1.35MM as a first-time arbitration-eligible player, but he’s pitched like a top-tier starter for an otherwise dismal Padres staff. In a team-leading 81 innings this season, the former No. 5 overall draft pick has posted a 3.00 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 and a 45.6 percent ground-ball rate.

Certainly, there’s reason to approach Pomeranz’s success with some degree of caution. The former top pick, like many before him, posted dreadful numbers at Coors Field for the first three seasons of his career before being flipped to the A’s. Pomeranz posted solid numbers in Oakland, but he did so as more of a swingman than a regular member of the Athletics’ rotation. He’s never topped 147 innings in a single season (combined between the Majors and minors), and he hasn’t even climbed that high since 2012. He also battled a shoulder injury last season and dealt with a biceps injury back in 2013. Pomeranz figures to surpass his 2015 innings total the next time he starts for San Diego, and how well his arm can hold up over the life of a full season’s worth of innings remains to be seen.

Nevertheless, he’s an intriguing asset whose stock is on the rise while playing for a last-place club with an aggressive general manager and front office in place, so the debate of whether he should be traded or retained figures to be one of the more interesting topics as the non-waiver trade deadline draws nearer. Pomeranz has already been connected to the O’s and Marlins this week alone, and other suitors figure to line up in the weeks to come.

The other piece of the equation in this scenario is whether the O’s have the necessary talent to acquire either of these arms (or another rotation upgrade). Entering the season, Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law pegged the Orioles as having the game’s fourth-worst farm system. That’s not to say that the O’s don’t have appealing players, but the lack of depth in their system will allow other teams ample opportunity to offer superior packages in trade talks.

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Baltimore Orioles Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres Drew Pomeranz Francisco Liriano

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NL Notes: Syndergaard, Cespedes, Dodgers, Myers, Gray, Cards

By Steve Adams | June 22, 2016 at 10:46pm CDT

The Mets and their fans had a scare earlier today when both Noah Syndergaard and Yoenis Cespedes departed from a game early, but the team gave fairly positive updates on that pair and on Zack Wheeler tonight (links to Twitter via David Lennon of Newsday). There’s no structural damage in Syndergaard’s elbow. He’s free to resume his normal routine and will begin taking some anti-inflammatory medication to help with the discomfort he’s experienced twice this season. Cespedes received a cortisone shot for a sprained left wrist but is day to day and isn’t headed to the disabled list at this time. Wheeler, too, received a cortisone shot for a nerve issue in his elbow but has no structural damage.

As Mets fans breathe a sigh of relief, here are a few other notes from around the Senior Circuit…

  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports points out that the Dodgers spent more on international amateurs (players that fall within international signing guidelines) than six organizations spent on their Major League payroll to open the season. Los Angeles spent about $96MM this period ($48MM on players plus about $48MM in luxury taxes), and that figure doesn’t even factor in the six-year, $30MM deal signed by right-hander Yaisel Sierra. Rosenthal spoke to commissioner Rob Manfred about the Dodgers’ spending, and Manfred said that there will be a strong focus on changes to the international system in the upcoming wave of CBA negotiations. “…when you see that kind of disparity in any part of the system, it generally suggests to us that the system is not functioning in a way that promotes competitive balance,” said the commissioner. “Rest assured, we’re going to be making proposals to address that.”
  • The Padres remain “active” in trade talks, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter), but one name that hasn’t seen much chatter is Wil Myers. It seems that San Diego is not terribly interested in discussing the outfielder/first baseman. The 25-year-old will hit arbitration eligibility after the season, and will be in line for a nice payday if he can keep hitting at anything like his current .290/.336/.529 pace. Myers has already knocked a career-high 16 long balls in 301 plate appearances, and finally seems to be coming into his own after inconsistency and injury issues in recent years. San Diego paid a high price to get Myers before the 2015 season, with talented young players Joe Ross and Trea Turner moving to D.C. in a notable three-team swap, and it appears for now as if the club would like to see its investment pay off on the field rather than cashing him in for prospects.
  • The Rockies pulled Jon Gray from today’s start with what the team is terming “arm fatigue,” and he’ll be reevaluated tomorrow, writes Nick Groke of the Denver Post. Gray threw just 40 of his 80 pitches for strikes and admitted that he’s felt some fatigue in his arm for his past couple of outings, but “it’s just now getting to a serious point.” Manager Walt Weiss said that Gray’s arm felt “heavy” today, and the right-hander himself said he had more trouble with his control than he ever has. “I’ve never had great control, but this, I didn’t know where this was going,” he said. “I wanted to leave it all out there and grind through it, but it wasn’t working.”
  • Brayan Pena is nearing the end of his 20-day rehab window with the Cardinals, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, which could mean that the team will part ways with veteran backup Eric Fryer. The 30-year-old Fryer has been great in a very limited role with St. Louis, hitting .406/.457/.469 in just 35 plate appearances (despite appearing in 22 games). However, Pena is on a two-year contract signed with the Cardinals last offseason, so even though he’s struggled through 11 rehab games as he recovers from knee surgery, he figures to be in the team’s plans.
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Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Dodgers New York Mets San Diego Padres St. Louis Cardinals Brayan Pena Eric Fryer Noah Syndergaard Rob Manfred Wil Myers Yoenis Cespedes Zack Wheeler

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Marlins Eyeing Pitching; Odorizzi, Pomeranz Among Targets

By Jeff Todd | June 22, 2016 at 11:03am CDT

WEDNESDAY: Miami has also reached out to the Padres to ask about lefty Drew Pomeranz, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports. After some solid work in recent years in a swingman capacity, Pomeranz has put up surprisingly excellent numbers as a starter in San Diego, working to a 3.00 ERA with 10.7 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9 over 81 innings.

Pomeranz can be controlled for two more seasons after this one via arbitration, and he’ll be building off of a cheap $1.35MM salary. The Marlins are evidently looking at assets with value beyond the present season, though that would certainly raise the acquisition cost for an organization that doesn’t feature a high volume of highly-regarded talent in the upper levels of its farm system.

MONDAY: The Marlins have been looking at both starters and relievers on the trade market, according to Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Among the players they have discussed is Rays’ right-hander Jake Odorizzi, per the report.

It’s not surprising to hear that Miami is looking for arms. The club is certainly in a buying posture as the All-Star break nears; in fact, the Fish have somewhat quietly passed the Mets and currently occupy the second spot in the NL East.

Despite that success, there are some clear questions in the staff. That’s especially true in the rotation, where Jose Fernandez has led a group of otherwise ordinary starters. Major free agent signee Wei-Yin Chen isn’t going anywhere, but hasn’t been great. Adam Conley and Tom Koehler have been ordinary on the whole, while neither Justin Nicolino or Jarred Cosart has managed to lock down a spot.

There are at least some questions, too, in the bullpen, though the results have been more than fine from the team’s top relievers even with Carter Capps and now Bryan Morris missing significant time. A.J. Ramos and breakout righty David Phelps have held down the back of the pen admirably, with Kyle Barraclough racking up strikeouts but also walks. Miami has received good middle-relief work from pitchers like Dustin McGowan and Nick Wittgren, with late-inning lefty Mike Dunn showing promise upon his return. On the other hand, Miami has received a lot of subpar innings from other pitchers. It’s certainly possible to imagine the team pursuing back-end or middle relief help via trade.

Odorizzi looks like exactly the kind of pitcher you’d think the Marlins would look at. He could well be made available even if Tampa Bay doesn’t elect to trigger a broader sell-off, as the team has loads of depth in its own rotation. He has been more solid than great this year, but is a power pitcher with control (through 2019 via arbitration), much like Cosart was when he was added back in 2014.

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NL West Notes: Duffy, Arroyo, Padres, Chatwood, Peralta, Vogelsong

By Steve Adams | June 21, 2016 at 10:50am CDT

The Giants announced after last night’s game that third baseman Matt Duffy is headed to the disabled list with a strained Achilles tendon in his left foot. As MLB.com’s Chris Haft writes, Duffy is headed for a second opinion on the injury right now, though the initial expectations don’t appear to forecast a lengthy absence for the 25-year-old. Duffy cautioned that he wants to avoid returning from the injury too soon and aggravating his Achilles, as it could lead to a more prolonged absence. Ramiro Pena and Conor Gillaspie figure to platoon at third base in his absence, writes Haft, with outfielder Mac Williamson a likely candidate to come up and tack Duffy’s roster spot in the interim. Asked whether top prospect Christian Arroyo, who can play either shortstop or third base, would be an option to replace Duffy, general manager Bobby Evans indicated that the organization feels that Arroyo requires more development time in the minor leagues.

More from the NL West…

  • Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union Tribune spoke to scouts from both leagues to get their thoughts on a number of the Padres’ trade candidates, including Fernando Rodney, Jon Jay, Derek Norris, Matt Kemp, Melvin Upton Jr., Drew Pomeranz, Wil Myers and Yangervis Solarte (injured right-handers Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner are notably absent). One scout noted how difficult it will be to convince a team to take on Kemp’s contract in his “arthritic condition,” and a second scout called both Kemp and Upton “dead weight” despite the latter’s reasonably solid offensive numbers the past two seasons. Regarding Myers and Pomeranz, Lin received a pair of replies saying it’d be prudent to hang onto the pair of controllable pieces, while another pair called out each player’s limited track record in questioning their overall value. As one scout put it, a “lot of people are lukewarm about [Myers] across the game” at this time.
  • Rockies right-hander Tyler Chatwood is among the most successful two-time Tommy John patients in history, writes Nick Groke of the Denver Post. Chatwood is currently the only two-time TJ patient that is currently making regular starts at the Major League level, and he’s pitched to a 3.15 ERA in 85 2/3 innings for the Rockies thus far in 2016. Chatwood credits his success to a dedication to studying other elite pitchers and adopting a mix of pitches that he feels could be less stressful on his arm upon returning from his second surgery. Groke calls Chatwood the ace of the Rox’ staff, though I’d respectfully disagree and give that label to up-and-coming Jon Gray; while Gray’s ERA pales in comparison, his strikeout, walk and swinging-strike rates all point to improvement on the horizon. Regardless of one’s preference between the two, though, Gray and Chatwood represent a nice pair of arms for the Rockies to deploy in their rotation moving forward.
  • D-backs outfielder David Peralta, who landed on the disabled list with a back strain yesterday, is getting an MRI today according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (on Twitter). Neither Peralta nor the team believes the injury to be too serious in nature, so the test would appear to be fairly precautionary in nature.
  • Pirates righty Ryan Vogelsong, who spent the 2011-15 seasons with the Giants, told reporters yesterday (including Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle) that he would have loved to return to San Francisco but understood why the team elected not to pursue him this winter. “I kind of knew they were probably going after some front-line guys for the rotation to make it better and give them more innings and take a load of the bullpen,” Vogelsong explained. “It was never my intention to make it seem like I didn’t want to go back there. I would have loved to go back. It was a matter of a team progressing.” Vogelsong is currently recovering from a truly frightening eye injury suffered when he was hit in the face by a fastball. As he explained to Schulman, he feels fortunate that he’s able to see out of his left eye and is currently seeing with 20-20 vision and making throws of up to 90 feet.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Colorado Rockies San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants B.J. Upton Christian Arroyo David Peralta Drew Pomeranz Matt Duffy Matt Kemp Ryan Vogelsong Wil Myers

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Padres Agree To Terms With Reggie Lawson To Over-Slot Bonus

By Jeff Todd | June 20, 2016 at 9:00pm CDT

The Padres have agreed to terms with competitive lottery Round B pick Reggie Lawson to a well-above-slot bonus, MLB.com’s Jim Callis reports on Twitter. The right-hander will receive a $1.9MM bonus that dwarfs the $905,900 slot allocation that came with the 71st overall selection.

San Diego was always expected to put a creative draft together with five selections before the start of the third round. The Friars saved a major portion of the pool value of the 24th overall choice, Hudson Potts, and have gone about redistributing it since. The Pads also went around $1MM over-slot for another high school righty in Mason Thompson. Among its other top selections, the team has still yet to agree to terms with Florida outfielder Buddy Reed.

Lawson, who hails from California, has shown a big fastball at a young age, though MLB.com’s prospect analysts suggest that his stuff hasn’t yet progressed as scouts hoped. They rated him as the 100th-best draft-eligible prospect, noting the evident upside but also the risk.

Other evaluators were more optimistic. ESPN.com rated him 63rd and Baseball America had him 56th. They pin their hopes on Lawson’s athleticism and quick arm, noting that he’s shown flashes of the kind of ability that’s normally found at the top of the board. San Diego obviously concurred, and paid up to keep Lawson from honoring his commitment to Arizona State University.

 

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