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Latest On Pirates’ Trade Possibilities

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Few players who could plausibly be moved this summer would be as impactful a pickup as Bryan Reynolds. The Pirates center fielder isn’t performing at quite his star level from last season, but he’s having another well above-average campaign. Through 335 plate appearances entering play Friday, Reynolds owns a .257/.337/.463 line with 15 home runs, 10 doubles and a trio of stolen bases.

Controllable for another three-plus seasons, there’d be no shortage of interest if the Bucs make him available over the coming weeks. Jon Heyman of the New York Post lists the Yankees, Marlins, Phillies, Padres and Mariners among the teams likely to gauge his availability. There are no surprises among that group, as all five are known to be in the hunt for outfield help and/or have made unsuccessful attempts to pry Reynolds away in the past.

New York has relied on Aaron Judge in center field to great results, but they’ve grown dissatisfied with the continued struggles of Joey Gallo and (to a lesser extent) Aaron Hicks in the corners. They could eye Reynolds either to plug directly into left field or as a center field option capable of kicking Judge back to right. Miami and Philadelphia have direct needs in center field and figure to inquire about various possibilities at the position; the Fish have been linked to Oakland’s Ramón Laureano as well.

San Diego has holes in both corner spots and has watched center fielder Trent Grisham flounder for most of the year. Seattle may have the most robust outfield of any of the reported Reynolds suitors, but Jarred Kelenic struggled enough to be optioned to Triple-A and they’ve not gotten the production they’d anticipated from Jesse Winker or Mitch Haniger this season (the latter on account of injuries).

The quintet, of course, would certainly be joined by other suitors if the Pirates actively shopped Reynolds. Pittsburgh, however, has set a justifiably lofty asking price both at last summer’s deadline and over the winter. That makes him a longshot to actually change hands, and Heyman notes in a separate piece that it remains “unlikely” the Bucs will find a compelling enough offer to make a move.

That may also be true of star closer David Bednar, whom Heyman floats as a possible trade candidate. One of five players the Pirates acquired in the January 2021 Joe Musgrove deal, Bednar has emerged as one of the sport’s best late-inning weapons. Since landing in Pittsburgh, the right-hander has posted a 2.26 ERA while holding opponents to a .187/.255/.321 line in just shy of 100 frames. That includes 39 innings of 2.31 ERA ball this season, with Bednar punching out more than a third of batters faced and likely to earn his first All-Star nod.

The 27-year-old comes with even more club control than Reynolds, as he’s slated to remain in Pittsburgh through 2026. Bednar won’t reach arbitration-eligibility until the 2024 campaign, so there’s no financial pressure for the Bucs to make a deal. Needless to say, they’d have to be blown away by a package to pull the trigger on a Bednar trade as well.

One player the Bucs are virtually assured of trading is starter José Quintana. The veteran southpaw is having a solid bounceback season after signing a $2MM free agent deal over the winter. He’s a sensible back-end rotation target for teams seeking pitching help, and the Bucs have already fielded hits from contenders. As an impeding free agent on a team that won’t come anywhere near the postseason, he’s as good a bet as any player in the league to change uniforms over the next few weeks.

Quintana suggested he’s not dwelling on the possibility of being dealt, saying he’s “(staying) focused on one start at a time” (link via Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic). He acknowledged a move was a possibility, but indicated he’d be open to returning to Pittsburgh in free agency next winter. “For sure, I want to come back here. But I think it’s too soon to talk about that. I want to keep my eyes focused on this season, one start at a time.” Nothing would preclude the Bucs from reengaging with Quintana’s representatives during the offseason if/when he’s dealt this month, but this season’s solid 3.33 ERA/3.96 SIERA make it likely he’ll land a loftier guarantee (and perhaps a two-year commitment) if he continues to pitch well down the stretch.

Diamondbacks Claim Sergio Alcantara, Designate J.B. Wendelken

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The Diamondbacks announced they’ve brought back infielder Sergio Alcántara via waivers from the Padres. Reliever J.B. Wendelken has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

It’s familiar territory for Alcántara, who is clearly well-regarded by the Arizona front office and coaching staff. The Snakes initially signed him as an amateur free agent from the Dominican Republic a decade ago. After a few seasons in the farm system, he was dealt to the Tigers at the 2017 deadline as part of the J.D. Martinez trade. Alcántara landed with the Cubs via waivers last season, and the D-Backs reacquired him from Chicago in a trade this March. A month into the season, Arizona designated Alcántara for assignment. The Padres grabbed him on waivers but DFA him themselves last week, and the D-Backs jumped on the chance to acquire him for a third time.

Alcántara, who turns 26 next weekend, continues to earn opportunities based on the strength of his glove. Long regarded by many prospect evaluators as a potential plus shortstop, he’s rated very highly in the eyes of public defensive metrics over his 450 MLB innings at shortstop. He’s capable of suiting up all around the infield.

While his defensive prowess has drawn a fair bit of interest as a depth infielder, Alcántara’s struggles at the plate have prevented him from securing a long-term home. He’s tallied 373 plate appearances over the past three seasons, with the majority of that work coming for last year’s Cubs. The switch-hitter owns a meager .188/.268/.307 line, hitting just seven home runs while striking out at an elevated 27.6% clip.

Alcántara is out of minor league option years, meaning the D-Backs will have to keep him on the active roster or again designate him for assignment. He’ll add some immediate infield cover while the team navigates a left hamstring injury for Ketel Marte. Marte has been able to serve as a designated hitter for the past week, but the team hasn’t run him out on defense for fear of aggravating that issue. Arizona has relied on a rookie middle-infield tandem of Geraldo Perdomo and Buddy Kennedy of late, and neither player has offered much at the dish. Perdomo has long been viewed as a highly-regarded prospect and figures to get continued run at shortstop, but Alcántara could vie for playing time with Kennedy and/or fellow utility option Jake Hager.

Wendelken, meanwhile, loses his roster spot amidst a second straight down year. The right-hander was quietly one of the more reliable bullpen arms for the A’s early in his career. Between 2018-20, Wendelken fired 74 1/3 innings of 2.30 ERA ball. He punched out a solid 26.4% of opponents over that stretch while holding batters to a measly .172/.246/.276 slash line. Oakland looked as if they’d unearthed a long-term key piece of the bullpen, but Wendelken has run into unexpected struggles over the past couple seasons.

Through 26 games in green and gold last year, he posted a 4.32 ERA. The A’s made the surprising decision to designate him for assignment, and the D-Backs (owner of the league’s top waiver priority at the time) promptly placed a claim. Wendelken stuck on the active roster for the remainder of the season but posted a 4.34 ERA while watching his strikeout percentage plummet to 16.9%.

Arizona tendered the 29-year-old a contract over the winter, hoping he’d rediscover something approaching his 2018-20 form. Instead, Wendelken has allowed a personal-worst 5.28 ERA through 29 innings. He’s continued to show diminished strikeout and swing-and-miss numbers, and manager Torey Lovullo has more frequently deployed him in lower-leverage situations. Like Alcántara, Wendelken is out of options, and the D-Backs have decided to move on entirely.

They’ll now have a week to trade him or try to run him through waivers. In spite of his down swing-and-miss rate, Wendelken hasn’t lost any velocity or spin on his fastball or slider relative to his peak. That could attract some interest from other clubs hoping to see if they can coax something more closely resembling his early-career success.

Wendelken is playing this season on an $835K salary, a touch above the league minimum but a modest figure nonetheless. He’s still due around half that amount, which would be the responsibility of any team that claims him off waivers. Should he clear waivers, Wendelken would have the right to refuse an outright assignment in favor of free agency. As a player with between three and five years of MLB service time, however, electing free agency would require forfeiting the remainder of this year’s guaranteed salary.

Trade Rumors: Gallen, Bumgarner, Cano, Perez

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Despite rival teams’ interest in Zac Gallen, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that the Diamondbacks right-hander is “not going anywhere.”  This isn’t the first time Gallen’s name has surfaced in trade rumors, and after an injury-marred 2021 season, Gallen has re-established himself with some very solid numbers this season.  Beyond just his ability, Gallen is also arbitration-controlled through the 2025 season, making it obvious both why other teams would want to acquire him, and why the D’Backs would want to keep him.  Though it is increasingly looking like the D’Backs will be sellers again at the deadline, the club has been resistant to moving cornerstone players and going into rebuild mode — Ketel Marte (another popular trade candidate) was even signed to an extension back in March.

One player the D’Backs “would love to move” is Madison Bumgarner, Nightengale notes, but that is a tougher sell to suitors.  After signing a five-year, $85MM deal with the Diamondbacks in December 2019, Bumgarner endured two rough seasons before bouncing back to more decent form thus far in 2022.  However, it will take more than just decent numbers for Arizona to entice another team into taking on even a decent-sized chunk of the approximately $48.4MM still owed to Bumgarner through the 2024 season.  Also, Bumgarner has a five-team no-trade clause, though the five teams on his current list aren’t known.

More trade buzz from around the league…

  • Also from Nightengale, Robinson Cano has been some getting some attention, as the veteran slugger tries to revive his career with the Padres’ Triple-A team.  Cano was suspended for the entire 2021 season and has posted only a .371 OPS over 77 plate appearances with the Padres and Mets this season, though he has been hitting well in the (batter-friendly) environment of Triple-A El Paso.  Since either the Padres or a new team would owe Cano only the prorated portion of a minimum salary if he made a big league roster, Cano could be an interesting trade chip for any team that wants to take a flier on the former All-Star.  From San Diego’s perspective, they probably wouldn’t expect much for Cano in return, or they could hypothetically include him as a part of a larger trade package.
  • Martin Perez makes some sense as a sell-high trade candidate for the Rangers, though both Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News and ESPN.com’s Buster Olney feel it might be more likely that Texas keeps the veteran lefty and even looks to extend him into at least the 2023 season.  Perez is enjoying a career year, with a 2.34 ERA over an even 100 innings, and a generally positive set of advanced metrics indicating that his performance isn’t a fluke.  Perez has helped keep the Rangers on the outskirts of the wild card race, so if Texas can string together some wins in July, the team might not be selling at the deadline whatsoever.

Padres Select Tayler Scott, Designate Kyle Tyler

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The Padres have selected the contract of right-hander Tayler Scott. Lefty Ray Kerr will be optioned to create a spot for Scott on the active roster. Righty Kyle Tyler has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

This will be Scott’s first major league action since 2019, his only previous season in the bigs. He logged 16 1/3 innings that year between the Mariners and the Orioles, though was tattooed in that small sample to a 14.33 ERA. After that, he spent the next two seasons in Japan, suiting up for the Hiroshima Carp of Nippon Professional Baseball in 2020 and 2021.

He signed a minor league deal with the Padres in February and is having a nice season in Triple-A. Through 31 innings for El Paso, he has a 3.48 ERA, 28.7% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 45.8% ground ball rate. The Friars will now give the 30-year-old a chance to see if he can carry any of that over to the big league level.

As for Tyler, this is the sixth time he’s been designated for assignment this year. The incredible sequence of events started in March, when the Angels designated him for the first time. From there, he was claimed and quickly re-designated by the Red Sox, Padres, Angels and then the Padres again. On that fifth time, he cleared waivers and was outrighted by the Friars. Three days later, he was selected back to the big league team and has now received DFA #6. In the midst of all of that, he’s managed to throw four scoreless innings in the majors, along with 21 2/3 innings at Triple-A with a 4.98 ERA. If the previous months are any indication, he will surely garner attention from other clubs. The Padres will have one week to trade him or put him back on the waiver wire.

Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported Scott’s promotion and Kerr’s option before the official announcement.

NL West Notes: Tatis, Musgrove, Senzatela

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The Padres currently have a record of 46-33, placing them in the top National League Wild Card spot and just 3 1/2 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. They’ve managed to do that without any contributions from their star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., who has been on the injured list all year after hurting his wrist in an offseason motorcycle accident (or accidents). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic asked Tatis if he would consider moving off shortstop in his return, to which he replied, “The plan so far is shortstop.” When Rosenthal suggested Tatis could make a good fit in center field, Tatis said, “If it means we’re going to win more ballgames like that, I’ll do it that way,” before adding that he has been taking some fly balls in the outfield recently and that the switch is “not out of the question.”

This wouldn’t be the first time Tatis moved to the outfield while returning from an injury. After dealing with shoulder issues for much of 2021, Tatis ended up playing seven games in center field and 20 in right field upon his return, before eventually returning to the dirt. The idea was that outfielders have to make full-effort throws less often than infielders, which would reduce the wear-and-tear on his arm. Rosenthal pitches a similar plan for the Padres this year, taking the production of Ha-Seong Kim and Trent Grisham into account.

Kim’s batting line of .223/.314/.339 is a few points below league average, amounting to a 91 wRC+. However, his strong defense has allowed him to produce 1.4 fWAR on the year already, despite that subpar offensive output. He’s tallied four Defensive Runs Saved at shortstop this year, along with two at third base. Outs Above Average has given him a six this year between the two positions, with UZR giving him 4.6 at short and 1.1 at the hot corner. Grisham, however, has a .192/.290/.332 batting line this year, which results in a wRC+ of 82. If playing outfield is more beneficial for Tatis’s return to health and there’s more room for improvement in center than at shortstop, perhaps the Padres will give some consideration to taking this route, though much will surely depend on how things play out between now and then. With the trade deadline a month away, there are many moving parts that could change the calculus, but it will be an interesting story to develop along the way.

More details from the NL West…

  • Elsewhere in the same article, Rosenthal says that extension talks between the Friars and starter Joe Musgrove have “fizzled.” In April, the club reportedly gave him an offer of eight years in the vicinity of $11MM per year. Talks apparently continued since then, though the club doesn’t seem to have done much to bridge the gap between their offer and Musgrove’s asking price. The fact that Musgrove turned down that offer isn’t terribly surprising, given his potential earning power. Back in April, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco noted that Musgrove is headed to free agency with similar numbers to both Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman, both of whom just earned five-year deals worth $115MM and $110MM, respectively. Those amount to AAVs of $23MM and $22MM, double the type of contract the Friars were putting in front of Musgrove, though with different terms. Since that writing, Musgrove has done nothing to diminish his free agency outlook and may have even improved it. His 2.25 ERA is easily the best of his career, almost a full run better than his 3.18 from last year. His 25.6% strikeout rate is a few ticks below last season’s 27.1%, though he’s also reduced his walk rate from 7.2% to 5.3%. The Padres have reportedly considered trading from their rotation depth this year, though the equation will get tricky next year. Musgrove, Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger are all slated to reach free agency this winter. Nick Martinez also has a series of player options that could allow him to choose another trip to the open market. That leaves Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and MacKenzie Gore as the three starters penciled into the staff for next year.
  • Antonio Senzatela left last night’s start after just 37 pitchers over two innings due to some shoulder tightness. Thomas Harding of MLB.com spoke to the starter, who admitted that he’s a bit worried about it. “I’m worried because this has never happened to me,” Senzatela said. “I got scared a little bit. They said it’s nothing bad. Hopefully, it’s not bad. Hopefully, I’ll be better tomorrow and be ready for my next start.” His 4.95 season ERA won’t wow anyone, but it’s not awful for a guy whose home park is the most hitter-friendly venue in the league. Losing a rotation mainstay like Senzatela for any amount of time wouldn’t be great news for the Rockies, as their season is already in dire straits. Currently sporting a record of 33-44, they’re in the basement of the NL West and nine games behind the Cardinals for the final NL Wild Card spot. [UPDATE: the Rockies placed Senzatela on the 15-day IL due to right shoulder inflammation.]

Padres Select Matthew Batten, Designate Sergio Alcantara For Assignment

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The Padres announced they’ve selected infielder Matthew Batten onto the big league roster. Fellow infielder Sergio Alcántara has been designated for assignment to clear active and 40-man roster space.

Batten, who turned 27 last week, is in the major leagues for the first time. The Friars selected the 5’11” infielder in the 32nd round of the 2017 draft out of Quinnipiac University. Despite lacking draft or prospect pedigree, he’s played his way to the big leagues with a productive five-year showing in the minors. Batten is a .286/.368/.401 hitter in 420 minor league games, and he’s amidst a breakout 2022 campaign.

The Connecticut native has spent the entire season with the Padres’ Triple-A affiliate in El Paso. Through 264 trips to the plate, he’s hitting .299/.399/.504 with ten home runs. Batten has walked at an excellent 13.6% clip while striking out in a lower-than-average 19.7% of his trips, and he’s chipped in 13 stolen bases. El Paso is a hitter-friendly environment, but that level of production was eye-opening enough for the front office to give him an opportunity nevertheless.

Batten has a fair bit of minor league experience at each of second base, third base and shortstop. He’s seen sporadic time at first base and throughout the outfield as well, and he figures to serve a multi-positional bench role for manager Bob Melvin. That role had been filled of late by Alcántara, but he’ll lose his spot amidst a rough season at the plate.

The Padres claimed Alcántara off waivers from the division-rival Diamondbacks in early May. The out-of-options infielder stuck on the active roster and appeared in 22 games, but he offered very little offensive production during his limited at-bats. Alcántara had also struggled during his early-season stint in Arizona, and he carries just a .159/.183/.239 season line. Over a career-high 255 plate appearances with the Cubs last year, the 25-year-old (26 next month) posted a .205/.303/.327 showing.

Despite lacking much offensive punch, Alcántara has suited up for four different teams over the past three years. A highly-regarded defensive infielder, he’s capable of playing anywhere on the dirt and has drawn strong reviews from public defensive metrics for his shortstop play. The Friars will have a week to trade the defensive specialist or place him on waivers.

Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported Batten’s promotion before the team announcement.

The Padres, The Luxury Tax And The Trade Deadline

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The 45-31 Padres possess baseball’s fifth-best winning percentage (.592) and fifth-best run differential (+63). They’ve achieved this success despite receiving middle-of-the-pack production from first base and designated hitter in addition to well below-average offensive production from center field and right field. The Friars have also played the entire season thus far without star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. (although Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Tatis could begin hitting off a tee within the next two weeks and embark on a rehab assignment a couple weeks after that).

Given their success to date, the clear win-now direction of their recent slate of transactions and the generally aggressive mindset of baseball operations president A.J. Preller, one would expect the Padres to be in the market for upgrades as the Aug. 2 trade deadline approaches. They were reportedly seeking corner outfield upgrades even before the season started, and this year’s rough showing from center fielder Trent Grisham (.188/.287/.321 through 281 plate appearances) creates even further uncertainty in the outfield.

The problem for the Padres, as has been well documented in the past, is that their backs are up against a luxury-tax barrier that ownership seems unwilling to surpass for what would be a second consecutive season. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez estimates San Diego’s current slate of luxury tax obligations to be $229.4MM — just $600K shy of this year’s newly increased $230MM threshold. Agents I’ve spoken to who talked with the Padres late in the offseason said the team indeed suggested there was no real room to add to the Major League payroll, given their proximity to the tax line.

All of that meshes with reports that we’ve seen for more than a year now: that the Padres would love to shed the contracts of Wil Myers and/or Eric Hosmer and have explored attaching prospects of note in an effort to do just that. Those efforts, however, have come up empty — and it seems unlikely that the Padres would have any more success now. Myers has been on the injured list since May 31 due to a knee injury and was hitting just .234/.276/.306 in 134 plate appearances before being shelved. He’s owed the remainder of a $20MM salary this year plus a $1MM buyout on a 2023 option. Hosmer came out of the gates on fire but has faceplanted with a .238/.294/.330 slash in 201 plate appearances since May 1. He’s being paid $20MM this season and is owed $39MM total from 2023-25.

Every deadline season is different, and perhaps the Padres will finally beat the odds and manage to unload one of those cumbersome contracts, but with neither player doing much to improve his stock, that feels unlikely. If the Padres can’t manage to find a taker for either Myers or Hosmer but still wish to improve at the deadline, it stands to reason that they’ll have to explore other creative scenarios.

The simplest scenario for the Friars, despite the manner in which their pitching depth evaporated late in the 2021 season, would be to deal from their Major League rotation — either in order to acquire an outfielder of note or in order to clear the requisite payroll to do so in a separate trade. The Padres have an enviable starting staff of Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Sean Manaea, Mike Clevinger, Blake Snell and breakout rookie MacKenzie Gore. The staff is deep enough that righty Nick Martinez, who signed an opt-out-laden four-year deal in free agency this winter, has been working out of the bullpen at times in recent weeks.

It’s true that the Padres’ upper-level depth in the minors isn’t exactly at a high point. Adrian Martinez was traded to the A’s in the Manaea deal. Ryan Weathers and Reiss Knehr have pitched poorly in Triple-A. There’s risk in dealing from the big league staff, as a few injuries (and/or workload fatigue from Gore) could radically alter the picture. That said, a trade involving someone from the current staff could also net some lower-end pitching depth to help serve as insurance upon which to lean in the event of further injuries. It also shouldn’t be ruled out that the Padres could deal from the current rotation and reallocate some of that space to yet another newly acquired veteran arm; they’ve already been linked to Reds ace Luis Castillo, for instance.

Dennis Lin of The Athletic wrote in his latest mailbag that of the team’s current starters, Snell is the likely preference if they’re to make a trade. That makes good sense, as he carries a $10MM luxury hit for the Padres and has underperformed this season after missing significant time with an adductor strain to begin the year. Snell has at times looked quite strong this season, and fielding-independent pitching metrics feel he’s been better than his 5.60 ERA. Still, Snell has walked 12.2% of his opponents and regularly run up lofty pitch counts early in games, leading to an average of just five innings per outing.

Despite the struggles, Snell isn’t far removed from a far more promising stretch of games. Last year’s 4.20 ERA in 27 starts looks underwhelming, but he posted a 3.24 ERA with a 33.3% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate following last year’s All-Star break –a stretch that was capped off with 44 1/3 frames of 1.83 ERA ball. Snell completed seven innings and logged double-digit strikeout totals four times in that span, looking every bit like the former Cy Young winner he is. Snell is earning $12.5MM this season and has a $16MM salary for the 2023 season, and another club might feel it’s worth taking the financial risk to buy low on such a talented arm. Lin writes that the Padres have been “frustrated” by Snell’s lack of performance.

Other members of the rotation would also be more difficult to move. There’s no chance the Padres would move Musgrove amid a potential Cy Young campaign. Darvish has been their second-best starter, making him tough to replace, and he’s also the most expensive of the bunch, making him tougher for other teams to take on. Clevinger’s $5.75MM luxury number doesn’t give the Padres as much financial leeway as Snell would, and he’s pitched even less this season than Snell (albeit also more effectively). Manaea has been solid and would surely draw interest, but the team probably doesn’t want to remove an as-advertised mid-rotation arm that was only acquired a couple months ago — even if he’s a free agent this winter. Martinez’s opt outs make him an unappealing trade candidate. Snell strikes the balance of track record, upside and also current expendability that could make a team bite, even if it’d be selling low for the Padres.

Where else could the Friars look to get creative, though? Righty Dinelson Lamet is currently pitching out of the bullpen in Triple-A while earning a $4.775MM salary. He was clobbered for 10 runs in 8 1/3 big league innings earlier this year and hasn’t been the same since returning from Tommy John surgery, but he’s a big arm who could potentially appeal to another club willing to take on some money. No one should expect him to replicate his otherworldly 2.09 ERA, 34.8% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate from the shortened 2020 season, but those numbers are illustrative of the talent Lamet possesses. Could they find a taker for an injured Drew Pomeranz, who’s in the third season of a four-year, $34MM contract? Again, it’d be selling low on an immensely talented arm.

Looking up and down the roster, the Padres may not love the idea of parting with Ha-Seong Kim, who has become a useful bench piece thanks to standout defense at three positions and a passable, if unexciting, .226/.311/.345 batting line (91 wRC+). But the former KBO superstar hasn’t yet lived up to expectations since signing a four-year, $28MM contract in free agency, and the associated $7MM luxury hit that comes with that deal is more significant for the Padres now than it was at the time of his signing. Once Tatis returns, Kim will likely see his playing time reduced considerably.

However it plays out, the Padres have a difficult road ahead as the trade deadline approaches. They’ll either need to convince trade partners to pay the salary of any upgrades they acquire (thus increasing the prospect cost to make those deals), finally succeed in dumping an onerous contract, or sell low on some pricey but valuable depth in a manner that could come back to haunt them.  The alternatives are to simply stand pat, hoping that the return of Tatis and some improvements from the likes of Snell, Myers and Hosmer will be sufficient upgrades — or to bite the bullet and cross over into luxury territory.

Shogo Akiyama Signs With NPB’s Hiroshima Carp

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June 26: Akiyama has signed a three-year deal with the NPB’s Hiroshima Carp, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic.

June 20: Former Reds outfielder Shogo Akiyama is headed back to Japan, Akiyama himself tells Japanese media (English languagelink via the Japan Times). A report from The Manichi in Japan suggests that Akiyama’s former team, the Seibu Lions, could have an offer waiting for him.

Originally signed by the Reds to a three-year, $21MM contract heading into the 2020 season, Akiyama was never able to replicate the star-level production he’d showed with the Lions over a nine-year career in Nippon Professional Baseball. The now-34-year-old outfielder tallied just 366 plate appearances with Cincinnati and posted an underwhelming .224/.320/.274 batting line — a far cry from the brilliant .301/.376/.454 batting line he posted in nine years with his former Seibu club.

The Reds released Akiyama partway through the third and final season of that contract, and he quickly landed a minor league deal with the Padres. Akiyama recently opted out of that contract, however, and he tells the Japanese media that his agent informed him there were no offers from big league teams. Akiyama didn’t specify whether that meant no Major League offers or no offers at all, but given that he just hit .343/.378/.529 with three homers, two doubles, a triple and a pair of steals in 16 games with the Padres’ Triple-A affiliate in El Paso, it wouldn’t be a surprise if there had been other minor league opportunities available.

It remains to be seen whether Akiyama will ultimately return to the Lions, sign with another team in NPB, or simply take the remainder of the year off. However, his return and acknowledgement of a lack of MLB interest looks to have closed the door on any near-term return to North American ball. He only recently turned 34, though, so Akiyama ought to have other opportunities to add to an impressive collection of accolades in Japan, where he’s a six-time Gold Glove winner and five-time NPB All-Star.

Luis Castillo Drawing Early Trade Interest

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The Reds have a pair of the top trade candidates on this summer’s market, with starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle each midway through their penultimate seasons of club control. Rotation-needy teams will be in discussion with Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall and his staff over the next six weeks, and a few have already expressed early interest in Castillo.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post lists the Twins, Mets and Padres among the clubs in the market. That surely won’t be an exhaustive list, as virtually every contender could find room in their starting five for a pitcher of that caliber. Castillo is playing this season on an affordable $7.35MM salary (a bit more than half of which is still owed), so most clubs shouldn’t have an issue fitting him in the picture financially.

Castillo has been one of the sport’s more consistently productive arms over the past few years. Despite spending his entire MLB career with a team that plays in one of the most hitter-friendly home ballparks, the righty has an ERA below 4.00 in five of his six seasons. That includes this year’s 3.71 mark through nine starts and 51 innings.

The 29-year-old’s underlying numbers haven’t been quite as strong in 2022 as they’d been in prior years. His 22.9% strikeout rate and 10.5% swinging strike percentage are right around this season’s respective league averages for starters. Castillo’s 49.6% ground-ball rate is strong but down from the 55-58% range in which he sat every year from 2019-21. He’s also lost a tick on the average velocity of his four-seam and sinking fastballs, perhaps related to a bout of shoulder soreness that cost him the first month of the year.

While Castillo’s first couple months might be a bit underwhelming relative to his lofty standards, there’ll still be no shortage of demand. Even his slightly diminished fastball checks in north of 96 MPH on average. His performance this season has remained solid — his 3.71 ERA and 3.88 SIERA are below the respective 4.10 and 4.09 league marks for starters — and the native of the Dominican Republic has shown impact potential in the past. Between 2019-21, Castillo ranked among the top 25 qualified pitchers in ERA and strikeout rate and posted the sport’s second-highest grounder percentage.

With that kind of resume, it’s no surprise rival teams are in contact with the Reds already. The Twins are among the most straightforward candidates for a rotation pickup, and they also figure to explore the market for other high-end arms like Mahle and the A’s Frankie Montas. Minnesota enters play Thursday percentage points back of the Guardians in the AL Central, with the White Sox looming as a divisional threat four games behind them. Minnesota’s rotation started strong but has been tagged for a 4.80 ERA over the past month, a stretch that’s coincided with injured list stints for Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack (the latter of whom is done for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery).

The Mets, on the other hand, have a star-studded rotation when healthy. Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tylor Megill are all currently on the injured list, and they’ve been on the periphery of the market for most available stars over the past twelve months. Scherzer is expected back imminently (perhaps as soon as this weekend), while deGrom continues to progress from the scapula stress reaction he suffered during Spring Training. The club is hopeful he’ll back before the August 2 deadline, but Megill is likely to be on the shelf beyond that point.

One could argue that New York should prioritize areas beyond rotation help, but the Padres’ presence in the Castillo market illustrates that even teams without a clear need figure to at least perform due diligence. San Diego already has an excellent six-man staff of Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea, Yu Darvish, MacKenzie Gore, Mike Clevinger and Blake Snell. That’s forced offseason signee Nick Martinez into a swing role, and prevailing opinion is they’re likelier to deal from that surplus than add another impact starter. Between their rotation depth and the fact they’re right up against the $230MM base competitive balance tax threshold, the Friars feel like a longshot to land an arm of Castillo’s caliber. That was perhaps true of Manaea as well, however, and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has shown time and again he’s willing to act boldly to land players the organization desires.

No Castillo deal is imminent, of course, and there’ll be plenty more teams in the bidding over the coming weeks. The Reds don’t have to move either he or Mahle with an additional season of control, but their trade value will probably never again be as high as it’ll be this summer. At 23-46, Cincinnati has no chance of contending this year. Moving Castillo and/or Mahle would deal a key blow to the 2023 roster, but this year’s struggles may hint at a broader overhaul being necessary. The Reds didn’t go into this season intending to rebuild, but their efforts to remain competitive while subtracting some key players to pare back payroll were dashed out of the gate by a 3-18 showing in April.

Padres Recall C.J. Abrams

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The Padres announced they’ve recalled top prospect C.J. Abrams from Triple-A El Paso. Right-hander Reiss Knehr was optioned out in a corresponding transaction. The moves allow the club to comply with the league’s newly-implemented limit of 13 pitchers on an active roster.

Abrams returns to the big leagues a bit more than five weeks after being optioned out. The former sixth overall pick bypassed Triple-A entirely to crack the Opening Day roster. His lack of experience against upper-level pitching showed, however, as Abrams scuffled to a .182/.270/.273 line through his first 20 MLB games. The Friars eventually decided it better to get him regular run in Triple-A, and Abrams has responded with an impressive showing.

Through 151 plate appearances with the Chihuahuas, Abrams hit .314/.364/.507. He popped seven home runs while nabbing ten bases in 13 attempts and only striking out in 16.6% of his trips to the dish. While Abrams didn’t take many free passes, he demonstrated the kind of athleticism, bat-to-ball skills and power potential that has made him one of the game’s consensus top prospects.

Abrams spent the vast majority of his time in El Paso at shortstop, but he picked up two starts apiece at second base and in center field. It was a similar story during his early-season MLB look; he made 13 starts at shortstop, four at the keystone, and a lone outing in right field. The Friars have been without Fernando Tatís Jr. all year, leaving them to rely on the combination of Ha-Seong Kim and Abrams at shortstop.

San Diego is now dealing with an injury to their other star left side infielder, as Manny Machado sprained his left ankle yesterday. The Padres haven’t placed Machado on the injured list, but they’ll turn to Abrams at shortstop and Kim at the hot corner tonight against the Diamondbacks. That’d figure to be a regular combination if Machado is forced to miss an extended amount of time.

From a service time perspective, Abrams’ optional assignment lasted long enough to delay his path to free agency by a season. Even if he’s now in the majors for good, he won’t accrue enough MLB time to reach a full year of service this season. His earliest path to free agency eligibility is now after the 2028 campaign, although Abrams would be a lock for early arbitration as a Super Two qualifier following the 2024 season if he sticks in the majors. It’s possible that further struggles against MLB pitching and/or the eventual return of Tatís could lead to Abrams being optioned back to the minors at some point down the line, which may affect that trajectory.

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